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Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1 David Griffin Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller (CSIRO) and Gary Brassington (BMRC)

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Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1. David Griffin Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller (CSIRO) and Gary Brassington (BMRC). 20 ºC in winter? Global warming?. Just a localised anomaly, really. If not global warming, then what?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Predicting the consequences of climate change

by understanding the past: BRAN2.1 David Griffin

Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller (CSIRO)

and Gary Brassington (BMRC)

Page 2: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

20ºC in winter? Global warming?

Page 3: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Just a localised anomaly, really.If not global warming, then what?

Page 4: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

#2: 15ºC in summer? Please explain

Page 5: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Watch this cyclonic eddy develop:

Page 6: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

14 Feb

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15 Feb

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16 Feb

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17 Feb

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18 Feb

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19 Feb

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20 Feb

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21 Feb

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22 Feb

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23 Feb

Page 16: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Argo profile in centre of cold eddy:

atlas

Argo

Temperature

Page 17: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

What do these events have in common?

• Both are consequences of a stronger EAC

• Very warm east of Tasmania last summer

• more on the way?

• what will it mean?

Page 18: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1
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Page 21: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Puerulus settlement, SA and Tas:

observed

model

wind

Page 22: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

No, we’re not there yet.

• Annual cycle OK.

• Inter-annual variability is not.

• The cause of five-fold changes to recruitment success for Southern Rock Lobster remains a mystery

Page 23: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Conclusions

• There’s never been so much interest in the future

• We don’t know what’s going to happen

• science does not yet have the answers

• spotting wrong answers is often easier

• we have produced BRAN to foster ecological research

• please use it

Page 24: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Thank you

Page 25: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.010/1992-12/2004 1/2003-6/2006 10/1992-12/2006Assimilates along-track SLA, T(Z), S(z)

Assimilates along-track SLA, T(z), S(z), AMSRE - SST

Assimilates along-track SLA, T(z), S(z), AMSRE – SST or Rey 1/4o OISST

no rivers no rivers Seasonal climatological river fluxes

SSS restoring (30 days); SST restoring (30 days)

no SSS or SST restoring SSS restoring (30 days in deep water only); no SST restoring

ECMWF surface heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes

ECMWF surface heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes

ECMWF surface heat and freshwater fluxes; and momentum fluxes from 10 m winds

3 day assimilation cycle 7 day assimilation cycle with 1 day nudging using 1 day relaxation

7 day assimilation cycle with 1 day nudging using 0.25 day relaxation

A few bugs No known bugs (yet) Fingers crossed

Page 26: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0

Warm bias No temperature bias

Noticeably discontinuous in time (jumpy, shocks etc)

Acceptably continuous (can track features easily)

SST errors ~ 2-3 degrees SST errors ~ 0.6-0.8 degrees

SLA errors ~ 15 cm SLA errors ~ 8 cm

Page 27: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS

Multivariate assimilation system:

sea level obs correct h,T,S,U,V

Single point assimilation …

Page 28: Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS

The spatial structure of the covariances are determined by the statistics of the free-running model.

Influence of sealevel obs at x


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