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Predicting potential habitats of treespecies in Japan and East Asia

under climate change

Tanaka, N.(Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan)

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Prediction of climate change impacts on naturalforests and adaptation means

Species distribution models and climate change scenarios

Future habitats Current distribution

Identify vulnerable species andareas, as well as sustainable

habitats

Monitoring of vegetation todetect changes caused by

climate warming

Propose scientifically-sound conservation means

Change of protected areas, corridor for migration, assisting migration,control of overpopulated sp.

Predi

ction

ofCli

mate

ch

angeimpact

Monitoring

&

adaptatio

n

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Predicting potential habitats for plant species and climatechange assessment

Predicting potentialhabitat in future

Predictingdistribution

Validating model

Species distributionData

PRDB (Tanaka 2005)

Current climatic data

1-km Mesh data(JMA1996)

Statistical Model

Future climate dataRCM20, MIROC

(2081-2100)

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Climatic dataClimatic variables:

Kiras warmth index (WI)

Mean of daily minimum temp. in the coldest monthTMC

Summer (May-Sept.) precipitation PRS

Winter (Dec.-March) precipitation (PRW )

Climatic data (1953-1982): 1-km Mesh climatic data (JMA 1996)Future climatic data (2081-2100)

RCM20 scenario (2004)

MIROC scenario (2004)

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Current climate

(a) 1-km Mesh climatic data

Future climate (2081-2100)

(b) RCM20 Scenario (+2.8(c) MIROC Scenario +4.3

Climatic variables:

WI: Warmth index (degree*month)

TMC: Minimum temp. in coldest month(degree)

PRS: Summer precipitation (mm)

PRW: Winter precipitation (mm)

Current and future distribution of 4 climatic variables

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10 conifer species for climate change impact assessment

Distributing climate zones

a Abies sachalinensis Cold and cool temperateb Abies mariesii Cold temperate

c Abies veitchii Cold temperate

d Abies homolepis Cool temperatee Abies firma Intermediate temperate

f Tsuga diversifolia Cold temperate

gTsuga sieboldii Intermediate temperate

h Pseudotsuga japonica Warm temperate

i Podocarpus macrophyllus Warm temperate, Subtropical

j Podocarpus nagi Warm temperate, Subtropical

Species

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d) Abies homolepis

A t l di t ib ti d

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d) Abies homolepis

No dataPresenceAbsence

Non habitatMarginal habitat

Suitable habitat

Current climate RCM20 MIROC

Suitable habitats

WI

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e) Abies firma

Actual distribution and

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Suitable habitats 63.7

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Species Vulnerable regions Refugia

Abies mariesii NE Honshu Central HonshuAbies veitchii Kii and Shikoku Central Honshu

Abies homolepis Kii and Shikoku Central Honshu

Tsuga diversifolia Kii and ShikokuCentral Honshu

Pseudotsuga japonica Kii and Shikoku Non

Vulnerable species and regions with possible refugia afterclimate change

T i l f di i i l h bi f i i E A i

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Trial for predicting potential habitats of tree species in East Asia

Scanning

Geo reference

Presencedetection

Fagus hayatae

Resolution:

2525 km2

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Current

Last glacialmaximum(21,000 yrs BP)

Mean temperature of coldest month Mean temperature of warmest month

CCCMA a2a(2080-2099)

Climate change scenarios (WorldClim)

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Precipitation of warmest quarter Precipitation of coldest quarter

Current

Last glacialmaximum

(21,000 yrs BP)

CCCMA a2a(2080-2099)

Climate change scenarios (WorldClim)

Projecting potential habitats of Fagus hayatae

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Projecting potential habitats of Fagus hayataeunder climate change

Occurrenceprobability

Last glacial maximum (21,000 years BP) CCCMA a2a (2070-2099)

Actual distribution

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Constrains in climate change impact assessment inEast Asia

Different situation of research level among countries

Taiwan: Researchers on this topic are developing

Korea: Researchers on this topic are developing

China: Accurate distribution data of plant species arenot yet found

Mongolia: no information collected

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Thank you for yourattention

Co-workers: Matsui, T., Tsuyama, I., Nakao, K, Higa,M., and Nakazono, E. (FFPRI)