predicted changes in the distribution of the non …...predicted changes in the distribution of the...
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Predicted changes in the distribution of the non-indigenous tunicate Styela clavaalong the west coast of North America
with emphasis on Canadian waters
Thomas W. Therriault, Leif-Matthias Herborgand Cathryn L. Clarke
Department of Fisheries and Oceans CanadaPacific Biological Station, Nanaimo
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• Club tunicate, Styela clava, is native to Asia
• As with other non-indigenous tunicate species has dramatically impacted shellfish aquaculture, especially on the Atlantic coast of Canada
• This was one of five species considered in a National tunicate risk assessment
Background
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• Both for the organism and potential parasites, pathogens or fellow travelers two rankings are determined to get a combined risk level
– Probability of establishment• Arrive, survive, reproduce and spread
– Consequences of establishment• Uncertainty associated with each probability
or ranking is identified
General RA Framework
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• A large, solitary tunicate that can grow to 16 cm
• Tunic is tough, brown and leathery which tapers to the peduncle
• Two short siphons possess four brown to purple stripes
• A sessile filter-feeder typically found attached to hard structures
Styela clava
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• Non-simultaneous hermaphrodite that is not self fertile with external fertilization
• Once mature, spawning can occur every 24 hours in response to light and temperature (above 15oC)
• Larvae planktonic for 24-28 hours
Styela clava
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• Generally considered a temperate, cold water species with broad environmental tolerances
– Temperature: 2oC to 23oC – Salinity: 20‰ to 32‰, temporary to 8‰– Depth: 15m to 25m, up to 40m– Preference for artificial structures and
enclosed or semi-protected habitats
Styela clava
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Current Global DistributionYear Place of
earliest sighting
Reference
1933 Pacific USA Abbott & Johnson, 1976
1953 England Carlisle, 1954
1968 France Coughlan 1969
1970 Atlantic USA Berman et al., 1992
1976 Australia Holmes, 1976
1993 Pacific Canada
Lambert, 2003
1998 Atlantic Canada
MacNair, DFO, 2006, pers. comm.
2005 New Zealand Biosecurity New Zealand, 2005a
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Pacific Canadian Distribution
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• Survey was built using surveymonkey.com and e-mailed to 520 scientists and three mailing list
- received 132 replies• Asked to rate the likelihood of different transport
vectors contributing to the spread invasive tunicates and associated uncertainty
• Asked to rate the impact level of invasive tunicates on a range of human and natural factors and associated probability of the impact
Expert Survey
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Expert SurveyVector importance
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Didemnum B schlosseri B violaceus C intestinalisS clava Solitary tunicates Colonial tunicates General tunicates
larvae drift ballastwater
hulllarge
hullsmall
hullbarges
aquacult.fishing
aquariaintentional
very low
low
high
moderate
very high
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Styela clava ExpertsTransport likelihood Styela clava
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
larvae
floati
ng m
ateria
lba
last w
aterhu
ll larg
ehu
ll small
hull s
lowaq
uacu
lture
fishin
gaq
uaria
food
Perc
ent r
espo
nden
ts
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Expert SurveyImpact level
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Didemnum B schlosseri B violaceus C intestinalisS clava Solitary tunicates Colonial tunicates General tunicates
very low
low
high
moderate
very high
positive
Bio-diversity
MPA's Shell-fish
Fin-fish
Vesselsmoorings
Recreat- ional
Fishing
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• Based on an expert survey and literature accounts, the most likely vectors for Styela clava included:
– Hull fouling on slow moving vessels or barges
– Transfers associated with aquaculture activities
– Hull fouling on small, recreational boats
Major Dispersal Vectors
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Tug/Barge Density
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Aquaculture Density
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Small Craft Density
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• Where can Styela clava live in Canada?– Survive and Reproduce
• Environmental niche models– Simple models based on literature accounts
e.g. temperature or salinity tolerances– More complex environmental niche models
e.g. Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP)
Environmental Constraints
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Simple Predictions: Temperature
• For the other 3 seasons, virtually the entire area was determined to be suitable
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Simple Predictions: Salinity
• Almost the entire area was determined to be suitable based on salinity regardless of season
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• Seasonal Temperature (4)• Seasonal Salinity (4)• Annual Oxygen (1)• Annual Chlorophyll a (1)• Depth was bounded at 200m• All environmental layers were tested for their
contribution to model accuracy and only those that improved accuracy were used (here all)
GARP Layers
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GARP Model Predictions
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• Simple models based on literature accounts were relatively uninformative for predicting the distribution of Styela clava
• Although inherently conservative, GARP modeling was much more informative for predicting suitable locations
Evaluating Environmental Predictions
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• GARP models were based on the KNOWN North American distribution along the Pacific coast
• If Styela clava is present at locations with significantly different environmental conditions then the distribution presented here underestimates the actual potential distribution
Potential GARP Limitations
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Environmental SuitabilityAnnual
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Chlorophyl (mg / L)
Suita
bilit
y
Annual
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Oxygen (mg / L)
Suita
bilit
y
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Environmental SuitabilitySalinity (‰) Temperature (oC)
Jan-Mar 26.5 – 33.6 5.5 – 13.3
Apr-Jun 24.2 – 33.6 8.4 – 14.7
Jul-Sept 26.7 – 33.4 11.0 – 16.3
Oct-Dec 22.7 – 34.0 8.0 – 16.2
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Potential Distribution
• Potential distribution is a function of potential vectors and suitable environments
• We combined the three major vector densities with GARP environmental predictions
• All density layers were standardized to range between 0 and 1
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Potential Distribution
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Subtidal AIS Monitoring – 2006
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Subtidal AIS Monitoring – 2007
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• The potential distribution of Styela clavaas determined by vector density and GARP modeling can be used to inform other activities
– Risk Assessments– Monitoring – Rapid Response Planning
Informing Other NIS Activities
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• Quantify actual vector movement– associated with aquaculture-related activities– associated with small craft movements
• Use genetic information to identify the population structure of this non-indigenous tunicate and potential vectors responsible for this observed structure
Next Steps
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• Based on an expert survey and literature accounts, the most severe impacts noted for Styela clava included:
– Shellfish aquaculture– Biodiversity– Vessels, moorings or marinas
Potential Consequences
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Aquatic Organism Risk PotentialVery High
High
Moderate Ecol. (EC)Ecol. (WC)
Low Gen. (WC)
Very Low Gen. (EC)
Rare Low Moderate High Very High
Probability of Introduction
Ecological or Genetic
Consequence
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• The shellfish industry, recreational boat owners and marina operators need to be especially vigilant
• New sightings should be reported immediately
– Phone: 1-888-356-7525– E-mail: [email protected]
Outreach and Communication
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• Funding from DFO’s Aquatic Invasive Species program and the Centre of Expertise for Aquatic Risk Assessment (CEARA)
• All the individuals who provided data, both environmental and species sightings
• Comments/suggestions from those at the Charlottetown peer-review meeting
Acknowledgements