precipitationconcentrationinbangladeshoverdifferent...

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Research Article Precipitation Concentration in Bangladesh over Different Temporal Periods Md. Anarul Haque Mondol , 1 Al-Mamun, 2 Mehedi Iqbal, 1 and Dong-Ho Jang 2 1 Department of Geography and Environment, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka 1342, Bangladesh 2 Department of Geography, College of Social Science, Kongju National University, Singwan-Dong, Gongju-si, Chungnam-do 32588, Republic of Korea Correspondence should be addressed to Dong-Ho Jang; [email protected] Received 6 April 2018; Revised 1 August 2018; Accepted 17 September 2018; Published 22 November 2018 Academic Editor: Pedro Jim´ enez-Guerrero Copyright © 2018 Md. Anarul Haque Mondol et al. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Precipitation concentration is an important component of climate, and an unbalanced distribution of precipitation can yield excess or scarcity of water resources, which in turn can influence plant growth, flood risk, and water resource use. e precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a well-known indicator for the measurement of temporal precipitation in a short or long area. e purpose of this study was to analyze precipitation concentration rates in different regions of Bangladesh using the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the inverse distance weighting method. In this study, the rainfall data from 30 meteorological observatory stations across Bangladesh were collected for the period 1980 to 2011. We defined periods of varying lengths (i.e., annual, supraseasonal, seasonal, and three- and two-month rainfall concentrations) and compared their PCI values. e results showed that precipitation concentrations were mostly irregular when rainfall was concentrated within two to four months of the year. Higher PCI values were mainly identified in the eastern region and have strong seasonal influences, whereas lower PCI values were mostly observed in the northern region. e analyses of periodic variation and precipitation in Bangladesh generally follow through the SW–NE direction due to the summer monsoon, while during the winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed higher and lower PCI values. We observed variations in PCI among different regions using the Kruskal–Wallis test of the mean PCI on a decadal scale (1980–1989, 1990–1999, and 2000–2011). e result showed that significant changes in the precipitation occurred during the period of 1980–2011. At a two-month scale, significant changes were identified during transition periods where PCI values were lower from 2000 to 2011 than those in the earlier decades. 1. Introduction Climate change due to global worming is a major concerning issue in the world. Precipitation is changing on global and regional scales by the influence of warming [1–4]. For re- gions prone to hydrological disasters (e.g., Bangladesh), the implications of these changes are particularly significant [5]. It has been suggested that water cycle modification is one of the most notable consequences of global atmospheric warming [6]. Precipitation intensity, amounts, and patterns are expected to change, and extreme weather events such as droughts and floods are likely to occur more frequently [7]. e amount and intensity of precipitation can influence soil erosion, slope instability, plant growth, and agricultural practices [8, 9] as well as modify fluvial systems, ground- water recharge, water disposal, and hydroelectric projects [10, 11]. Precipitation conveyance and measurement can provide a better understanding of the exact mechanisms driving these phenomena for disaster prediction and water management [12]. e IPCC–2007 report found a precipitation increase from 1900 to 2005 north of latitude of 30 ° [13], and Ban- gladesh, which is one of the most flood-prone areas of the world, was highlighted as one of the most vulnerable Hindawi Advances in Meteorology Volume 2018, Article ID 1849050, 18 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/1849050

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Page 1: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

Research ArticlePrecipitation Concentration in Bangladesh over DifferentTemporal Periods

Md Anarul Haque Mondol 1 Al-Mamun2 Mehedi Iqbal1 and Dong-Ho Jang 2

1Department of Geography and Environment Jahangirnagar University Savar Dhaka 1342 Bangladesh2Department of Geography College of Social Science Kongju National University Singwan-Dong Gongju-siChungnam-do 32588 Republic of Korea

Correspondence should be addressed to Dong-Ho Jang gisrskongjuackr

Received 6 April 2018 Revised 1 August 2018 Accepted 17 September 2018 Published 22 November 2018

Academic Editor Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero

Copyright copy 2018 Md Anarul Haque Mondol et al 0is is an open access article distributed under the Creative CommonsAttribution License which permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in anymedium provided the original work isproperly cited

Precipitation concentration is an important component of climate and an unbalanced distribution of precipitation can yieldexcess or scarcity of water resources which in turn can influence plant growth flood risk and water resource use 0eprecipitation concentration index (PCI) is a well-known indicator for the measurement of temporal precipitation in a short orlong area 0e purpose of this study was to analyze precipitation concentration rates in different regions of Bangladesh usingthe precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the inverse distance weighting method In this study the rainfall data from 30meteorological observatory stations across Bangladesh were collected for the period 1980 to 2011 We defined periods ofvarying lengths (ie annual supraseasonal seasonal and three- and two-month rainfall concentrations) and compared theirPCI values 0e results showed that precipitation concentrations were mostly irregular when rainfall was concentrated withintwo to four months of the year Higher PCI values were mainly identified in the eastern region and have strong seasonalinfluences whereas lower PCI values were mostly observed in the northern region 0e analyses of periodic variation andprecipitation in Bangladesh generally follow through the SWndashNE direction due to the summer monsoon while during thewinter monsoon they follow the NndashS direction where JAS and JFM showed higher and lower PCI values We observedvariations in PCI among different regions using the KruskalndashWallis test of the mean PCI on a decadal scale (1980ndash19891990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011) 0e result showed that significant changes in the precipitation occurred during the period of1980ndash2011 At a two-month scale significant changes were identified during transition periods where PCI values were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than those in the earlier decades

1 Introduction

Climate change due to global worming is a major concerningissue in the world Precipitation is changing on global andregional scales by the influence of warming [1ndash4] For re-gions prone to hydrological disasters (eg Bangladesh) theimplications of these changes are particularly significant [5]It has been suggested that water cycle modification is one ofthe most notable consequences of global atmosphericwarming [6] Precipitation intensity amounts and patternsare expected to change and extreme weather events such asdroughts and floods are likely to occur more frequently [7]

0e amount and intensity of precipitation can influence soilerosion slope instability plant growth and agriculturalpractices [8 9] as well as modify fluvial systems ground-water recharge water disposal and hydroelectric projects[10 11] Precipitation conveyance and measurement canprovide a better understanding of the exact mechanismsdriving these phenomena for disaster prediction and watermanagement [12]

0e IPCCndash2007 report found a precipitation increasefrom 1900 to 2005 north of latitude of 30deg [13] and Ban-gladesh which is one of the most flood-prone areas of theworld was highlighted as one of the most vulnerable

HindawiAdvances in MeteorologyVolume 2018 Article ID 1849050 18 pageshttpsdoiorg10115520181849050

countries [14] 0e variation of precipitation distribution inBangladesh is a unique characteristic for climatic change Inthe Bay of Bengal the hydrological cycle is dominated byvery high spatial and temporal variability and predictionsfor the end of the 21st century show a high degree ofuncertainty [15] Due to the monsoon season pre-cipitation concentration increased dramatically while thatin the winter season decreased For the case of dynamiccombination generally Bangladesh faced extreme floodsand longer periods of droughts [5 16 17] 0e north-western part of the country drought is a common phe-nomenon and became a growing concern in the recentyears 0e report confirmed a precipitation decrease intropical areas and an increase in areas affected by droughtin tropical and subtropical areas since the 1970s [13]Several studies in the world indicate that global warminghas strong influence on precipitation variation as well asextreme weather events like floods droughts and thun-derstorms [18 19 20] Bangladesh is renowned foragricultural-based country where about 80 of people aredirectly or indirectly involved in agricultural activities astheir main profession [21] Precipitation and its intensityare important factors on the Bangladesh climate for ag-ricultural production [22] Due to global warming hy-drological changes are the most significant impacts ofclimate change in Bangladesh 0e study of precipitationconcentration intensity on seasonal variation is essentialfor agriculture disaster mitigation and water resourcesplanning and management in Bangladesh in the context ofglobal climatic change [23]

Although many studies in Bangladesh have consideredgeneral rainfall and temperature characteristics few havestudied the intensity and distribution of rainfall in thisregion [22] Furthermore most research has been per-formed on an annual or six months basis and smallertemporal-scale analyses are lacking Although there is nosingle research method that can comprehensively examinechanges in precipitation over time it is worth consideringhow different methods can be applied to certain situations[24] For example some studies have applied a pre-cipitation variability focus in regions influenced by extremeprecipitation events [25] Several straightforward in-dicators can be used to assess variability and analyze hy-drological processes [26] Among them the precipitationconcentration index (PCI) [27] is recommended since itprovides information on long-term total variability of therainfall amount [26 28 29] Iskander et al [22] used thePCI to show an irregular precipitation distribution acrossBangladesh especially in the southeast region and othertrend analysis studies have examined long-term changes inprecipitation over Bangladesh [30 31]

0is study analyzed the spatial and temporal pre-cipitation variability using the PCI calculated from denseprecipitation datasets collected by the Bangladesh Mete-orological Department (BMD) A geographic informa-tion system (GIS) was used for the development ofa regional variation map to which we applied the in-verse distance weighted method 0e PCI was calcu-lated for annual supraseasonal seasonal and three- and

two-month data over a period of 30 years (1980ndash2011)0is enabled decadal comparisons (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011) between four regions covering thewhole study area

2 Data and Methods

21 Study Area Bangladesh is a low-lying river-dominatedcountry consisting primarily of flat plains It occupies anarea of 147570 km2 and geographically extends from 20deg34primeN to 26deg38prime N and from 88deg01prime E to 92deg41prime E Most of thepopulation lives in rural areas and directly or indirectlydepends on agricultural activities A sub-tropical monsoonclimate is strongly active and the country is sometimesaffected by tropical cyclones [32] 0e country experiencesa vast amount of rainfall annually On average 78 ofrainfall in Bangladesh occurs during the monsoon and iscaused by weak tropical depressions that are carried from theBay of Bengal by wet monsoon winds [33 34] Precipitationconcentration varies within the country and the meanannual precipitation varies from a maximum of 5690mm inthe northeast to a minimum of 1110mm in the west [21]Bangladesh has 30 meteorological observatories (Figure 1)all of which were included in this study To better un-derstand rainfall variation the country was divided into fourregions north-northwest central east-southeast and south-southwest

22 Study Process In this study precipitation concentra-tion changes at different temporal intervals were comparedfor the four regions of Bangladesh Data were collectedfrom the BMD from 1980 to 2011 and used as the input datafor PCI analysis Dataset quality is an important indicatorfor obtaining good results and was carefully controlledbefore the data were released Generally all stations werefound to be homogeneous therefore the datasets fromeach station were included in this analysis First we per-formed a comparative correlation between the PCI valuesfor the two- and three-month temporal intervals to un-derstand specific variations 0en we defined uniformmoderate irregular and highly irregular precipitationdistributions and seasonal variations for specific regionsFor the spatial analysis of precipitation we interpolateddata from all weather stations onto a regular grid Finallywe analyzed the annual supraseasonal seasonal and three-and two-month PCI values using the KruskalndashWallis test toidentify statistical significance among the decades 0emajor objective of this research was to analyze rainfalltrend and irregular distribution over the study area atvarious temporal intervals

0e geographic information system (GIS) tools havebeen used for the PCI mapping Under the geostatisticalanalysis the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method wasconsidered in the study to interpolate the PCI data of thecountry In interpolation the power was considered as 2the searching neighborhood was standard the neigh-borhoods were at least 10 and neighbors to include was 15major semiaxis was 152 minor semiaxis was 152 and the

2 Advances in Meteorology

angle was 0 e inverse distance weighting (IDW) is anestablished deterministic method for the precipitationconcentration index mapping and one of the most fre-quently used deterministic models in spatial interpolation[35ndash37]

23 PCI Methods PCI is an indicator of rainfall con-centration and rainfall erosivity [28] e PCI values werecalculated on an annual scale for each grid point usingdata from all stations based on the equations of Oliver[27]

PCIannual sum12i1Pi

2

sum12i1Pi( )

2 lowast100 (1)

where Pi is the total precipitation in month i e PCI wasalso calculated on a supraseasonal scale (Equation (2))

from JanuaryndashJune (JJ) and JulyndashDecember (JD) andon a seasonal scale (Equation (3)) for the winter(NovemberndashFebruary NDJF) summer or premonsoon(MarchndashJune MAMJ) and monsoon (JulyndashOctoberJASO)

PCIsuprandashseasonal sum6i1Pi

2

sum6i1Pi( )

2 lowast50 (2)

PCIseasonal sum4i1Pi

2

sum4i1Pi( )

2 lowast333333 (3)

We also calculated the three- and two-month PCI in-tervals (Equations (4) and (5) respectively) to break downthe annual seasonal and supraseasonal precipitation dis-tribution and concentration

88deg30prime

25deg3

0prime24

deg0prime

22deg3

0prime21

deg0prime

90deg0prime 91deg30prime

Meteorological stationsCentral region (CR)Eastern region (ER)

Northern region (NR)Southern and western region (SWR)

Figure 1 Map of the study area

Advances in Meteorology 3

PCIthreeminusmonth interval 1113936

3i1Pi

2

11139363i1Pi1113872 1113873

2 lowast25 (4)

PCItwominusmonth interval 1113936

2i1Pi

2

11139362i1Pi1113872 1113873

2 lowast1667 (5)

As defined by Oliver [27] the PCI values of less than 10represent a uniform precipitation distribution (ie lowprecipitation concentration) the PCI values from 11 to 15denote a moderate precipitation concentration the valuesfrom 16 to 20 denote an irregular distribution and the valuesabove 20 represent strong irregularity (ie high pre-cipitation concentration) According to the analysis of thePCI formulae on annual seasonal and supraseasonal scalesa PCI value of less than 10 indicates perfect uniformity ofprecipitation distribution (ie the same or highly similaramounts of rainfall in each month) At all scales a PCI valueof 16ndash20 indicates that the total precipitation is concentratedin half of the period and a PCI value greater than 20 in-dicates that the total precipitation is concentrated in one-third of the period For example this last value indicates thatmost annual precipitation occurs within four months mostsupraseasonal precipitation occurs within two months andmost seasonal precipitation occurs within one month Inother words intensive rainfall is considered to be uniform ifit occurs throughout the time period but if it occurs withina narrow subset of the time period then its distribution isconsidered to be irregular

To investigate the temporal changes in PCI the PCIvalues were calculated for ten decadal subperiods 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 0e statistical significanceof the difference between decadal periods at each grid pointwas assessed using a trend test with different levels ofprobability categorized as follows exceptionally likely(plt 001) extremely likely (pgt 005) very likely (plt 010)and very low probability (pgt 010)

3 Results and Discussion

31 Annual PCI 0e annual PCI values were moderate withsome irregularities (Figure 2) During the six-month anal-ysis the JJ (JanuaryndashJune) period was very irregular whereasthe JD (JulyndashDecember) period showed a moderate pre-cipitation distribution A moderately irregular distributionwas observed when the four regions shared similar climaticconditions 0e distribution of the annual PCI varied fromlt14 in the northndasheast (along Sylhet Srimangal) to gt18 in thenorth and southndasheast (Figure 3(a)) near the Bay of Bengalwhere amoderate-to-irregular precipitation distribution wasobserved 0e western and central areas showed significantvariations and irregular distributions

32 Supraseasonal PCI 0e PCI on a supraseasonal scaledemonstrated a complex precipitation distribution acrossthe study area During the JJ period the PCI continued toshow moderate-to-high irregularities 0e northndashwest andsouthndashsoutheast areas had higher PCI values (gt20) 0e

central (excluding Dhaka) and west areas also showedcomparatively higher values while low but irregularly dis-tributed values were observed in the central to northndasheastregions (Figure 3(b)) During the summer (MAMJ) thecentral and western regions experienced strong stormslocally known as ldquoKalbaishakirdquo which are characterized byhigh rainfall and the potential for devastating damage Forthe JD period lower PCI values (lt14) were observed overmost of the study area except for a small region in thesouthndasheast near Coxrsquos Bazar (Figure 3(c)) and were char-acterized by a moderately irregular precipitationdistribution

33 Seasonal PCI 0ree distinct seasons are recognized inBangladesh the premonsoon or summer season (MAMJ) themonsoonrainy season (JASO) and the postmonsoon orwinter season (NDJF) [38] Normally the premonsoon andpostmonsoon seasons receive little rainfall On average 80or more of the countryrsquos annual rainfall occurs during themonsoon season For all regions the postmonsoonmonsoonseasons showed strongly irregularuniform precipitationdistributions (Figures 3(d) and 3(f)) Rainfall in Bangladeshduring the monsoon season is driven by tropical depressionsin the Bay of Bengal [33] 0ese monsoon depressions havea south-to-north trajectory with turns towards the northwestand west deflected by the Meghalaya Plateau Owing to theheight of this plateau uplifted moisture condenses leading toparticularly heavy rainfall over northwestern Bangladesh [33]A moderate precipitation distribution was most common inthe premonsoon season although the northndashwest andsouthndasheast areas showed comparatively higher values (gt12)than the west central and northeast areas (Figure 3(e))Temperature has a significant influence on rainfall duringsummer temperatures can reach 45degC or greater and inwinter they can fall to 5degC in some areas [21]

34 0ree-Month PCI 0e three-month PCI values werehighest in the north and southndasheast and lowest in the centraland northndasheast regions depending on the annual weatherconditions 0e JFM period showed irregular PCI values forall regions with higher values in the southndasheast than those inthe northndashwest (Figure 3(g)) 0e AMJ period showedmoderately uniform premonsoon PCI values (Figure 3(h))which is a period that normally experiences increasingrainfall from April to reach moderate levels during May andJune [39] Early rainfall during this period can sometimescause flooding 0e lowest PCI values during the JAS periodwere less than 10 (Figure 3(i)) and were characterized byuniform precipitation concentrations across the study areaMoreover the periods of JFM and OND showed strongirregularities in the PCI values corresponding to the dryseason [39] Overall the northndashwest area showed the highestPCI values (gt20) while the central south and east areas hadmoderate values and irregular distributions Comparativelylower values were observed in the southndasheast near theChittagong Hill Tracts (Figure 3(j)) where the distributionwas moderate

4 Advances in Meteorology

35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies

were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country

36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

NDJFMAMJJASO

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFFM

MAAM

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFMAMJ

JASOND

SOON

NDDJ

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

MJJJ

JAAS

Regions

PCI v

alue

Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region

Advances in Meteorology 5

and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))

When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern

regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))

0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon

a b c d

e f

i j

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)

6 Advances in Meteorology

season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)

e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly

irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)

37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)

Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF

a b c d

e f

i j k l

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ

Advances in Meteorology 7

during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition

periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]

38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would

a b c

d e f

ig h

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

16ndash1812ndash14

gt20

N

S

W E200 100 0

km

200

Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011

8 Advances in Meteorology

have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover

same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)

a b c

d e f

ig h

N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

400 200 0

km

400

Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011

Advances in Meteorology 9

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 2: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

countries [14] 0e variation of precipitation distribution inBangladesh is a unique characteristic for climatic change Inthe Bay of Bengal the hydrological cycle is dominated byvery high spatial and temporal variability and predictionsfor the end of the 21st century show a high degree ofuncertainty [15] Due to the monsoon season pre-cipitation concentration increased dramatically while thatin the winter season decreased For the case of dynamiccombination generally Bangladesh faced extreme floodsand longer periods of droughts [5 16 17] 0e north-western part of the country drought is a common phe-nomenon and became a growing concern in the recentyears 0e report confirmed a precipitation decrease intropical areas and an increase in areas affected by droughtin tropical and subtropical areas since the 1970s [13]Several studies in the world indicate that global warminghas strong influence on precipitation variation as well asextreme weather events like floods droughts and thun-derstorms [18 19 20] Bangladesh is renowned foragricultural-based country where about 80 of people aredirectly or indirectly involved in agricultural activities astheir main profession [21] Precipitation and its intensityare important factors on the Bangladesh climate for ag-ricultural production [22] Due to global warming hy-drological changes are the most significant impacts ofclimate change in Bangladesh 0e study of precipitationconcentration intensity on seasonal variation is essentialfor agriculture disaster mitigation and water resourcesplanning and management in Bangladesh in the context ofglobal climatic change [23]

Although many studies in Bangladesh have consideredgeneral rainfall and temperature characteristics few havestudied the intensity and distribution of rainfall in thisregion [22] Furthermore most research has been per-formed on an annual or six months basis and smallertemporal-scale analyses are lacking Although there is nosingle research method that can comprehensively examinechanges in precipitation over time it is worth consideringhow different methods can be applied to certain situations[24] For example some studies have applied a pre-cipitation variability focus in regions influenced by extremeprecipitation events [25] Several straightforward in-dicators can be used to assess variability and analyze hy-drological processes [26] Among them the precipitationconcentration index (PCI) [27] is recommended since itprovides information on long-term total variability of therainfall amount [26 28 29] Iskander et al [22] used thePCI to show an irregular precipitation distribution acrossBangladesh especially in the southeast region and othertrend analysis studies have examined long-term changes inprecipitation over Bangladesh [30 31]

0is study analyzed the spatial and temporal pre-cipitation variability using the PCI calculated from denseprecipitation datasets collected by the Bangladesh Mete-orological Department (BMD) A geographic informa-tion system (GIS) was used for the development ofa regional variation map to which we applied the in-verse distance weighted method 0e PCI was calcu-lated for annual supraseasonal seasonal and three- and

two-month data over a period of 30 years (1980ndash2011)0is enabled decadal comparisons (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011) between four regions covering thewhole study area

2 Data and Methods

21 Study Area Bangladesh is a low-lying river-dominatedcountry consisting primarily of flat plains It occupies anarea of 147570 km2 and geographically extends from 20deg34primeN to 26deg38prime N and from 88deg01prime E to 92deg41prime E Most of thepopulation lives in rural areas and directly or indirectlydepends on agricultural activities A sub-tropical monsoonclimate is strongly active and the country is sometimesaffected by tropical cyclones [32] 0e country experiencesa vast amount of rainfall annually On average 78 ofrainfall in Bangladesh occurs during the monsoon and iscaused by weak tropical depressions that are carried from theBay of Bengal by wet monsoon winds [33 34] Precipitationconcentration varies within the country and the meanannual precipitation varies from a maximum of 5690mm inthe northeast to a minimum of 1110mm in the west [21]Bangladesh has 30 meteorological observatories (Figure 1)all of which were included in this study To better un-derstand rainfall variation the country was divided into fourregions north-northwest central east-southeast and south-southwest

22 Study Process In this study precipitation concentra-tion changes at different temporal intervals were comparedfor the four regions of Bangladesh Data were collectedfrom the BMD from 1980 to 2011 and used as the input datafor PCI analysis Dataset quality is an important indicatorfor obtaining good results and was carefully controlledbefore the data were released Generally all stations werefound to be homogeneous therefore the datasets fromeach station were included in this analysis First we per-formed a comparative correlation between the PCI valuesfor the two- and three-month temporal intervals to un-derstand specific variations 0en we defined uniformmoderate irregular and highly irregular precipitationdistributions and seasonal variations for specific regionsFor the spatial analysis of precipitation we interpolateddata from all weather stations onto a regular grid Finallywe analyzed the annual supraseasonal seasonal and three-and two-month PCI values using the KruskalndashWallis test toidentify statistical significance among the decades 0emajor objective of this research was to analyze rainfalltrend and irregular distribution over the study area atvarious temporal intervals

0e geographic information system (GIS) tools havebeen used for the PCI mapping Under the geostatisticalanalysis the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method wasconsidered in the study to interpolate the PCI data of thecountry In interpolation the power was considered as 2the searching neighborhood was standard the neigh-borhoods were at least 10 and neighbors to include was 15major semiaxis was 152 minor semiaxis was 152 and the

2 Advances in Meteorology

angle was 0 e inverse distance weighting (IDW) is anestablished deterministic method for the precipitationconcentration index mapping and one of the most fre-quently used deterministic models in spatial interpolation[35ndash37]

23 PCI Methods PCI is an indicator of rainfall con-centration and rainfall erosivity [28] e PCI values werecalculated on an annual scale for each grid point usingdata from all stations based on the equations of Oliver[27]

PCIannual sum12i1Pi

2

sum12i1Pi( )

2 lowast100 (1)

where Pi is the total precipitation in month i e PCI wasalso calculated on a supraseasonal scale (Equation (2))

from JanuaryndashJune (JJ) and JulyndashDecember (JD) andon a seasonal scale (Equation (3)) for the winter(NovemberndashFebruary NDJF) summer or premonsoon(MarchndashJune MAMJ) and monsoon (JulyndashOctoberJASO)

PCIsuprandashseasonal sum6i1Pi

2

sum6i1Pi( )

2 lowast50 (2)

PCIseasonal sum4i1Pi

2

sum4i1Pi( )

2 lowast333333 (3)

We also calculated the three- and two-month PCI in-tervals (Equations (4) and (5) respectively) to break downthe annual seasonal and supraseasonal precipitation dis-tribution and concentration

88deg30prime

25deg3

0prime24

deg0prime

22deg3

0prime21

deg0prime

90deg0prime 91deg30prime

Meteorological stationsCentral region (CR)Eastern region (ER)

Northern region (NR)Southern and western region (SWR)

Figure 1 Map of the study area

Advances in Meteorology 3

PCIthreeminusmonth interval 1113936

3i1Pi

2

11139363i1Pi1113872 1113873

2 lowast25 (4)

PCItwominusmonth interval 1113936

2i1Pi

2

11139362i1Pi1113872 1113873

2 lowast1667 (5)

As defined by Oliver [27] the PCI values of less than 10represent a uniform precipitation distribution (ie lowprecipitation concentration) the PCI values from 11 to 15denote a moderate precipitation concentration the valuesfrom 16 to 20 denote an irregular distribution and the valuesabove 20 represent strong irregularity (ie high pre-cipitation concentration) According to the analysis of thePCI formulae on annual seasonal and supraseasonal scalesa PCI value of less than 10 indicates perfect uniformity ofprecipitation distribution (ie the same or highly similaramounts of rainfall in each month) At all scales a PCI valueof 16ndash20 indicates that the total precipitation is concentratedin half of the period and a PCI value greater than 20 in-dicates that the total precipitation is concentrated in one-third of the period For example this last value indicates thatmost annual precipitation occurs within four months mostsupraseasonal precipitation occurs within two months andmost seasonal precipitation occurs within one month Inother words intensive rainfall is considered to be uniform ifit occurs throughout the time period but if it occurs withina narrow subset of the time period then its distribution isconsidered to be irregular

To investigate the temporal changes in PCI the PCIvalues were calculated for ten decadal subperiods 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 0e statistical significanceof the difference between decadal periods at each grid pointwas assessed using a trend test with different levels ofprobability categorized as follows exceptionally likely(plt 001) extremely likely (pgt 005) very likely (plt 010)and very low probability (pgt 010)

3 Results and Discussion

31 Annual PCI 0e annual PCI values were moderate withsome irregularities (Figure 2) During the six-month anal-ysis the JJ (JanuaryndashJune) period was very irregular whereasthe JD (JulyndashDecember) period showed a moderate pre-cipitation distribution A moderately irregular distributionwas observed when the four regions shared similar climaticconditions 0e distribution of the annual PCI varied fromlt14 in the northndasheast (along Sylhet Srimangal) to gt18 in thenorth and southndasheast (Figure 3(a)) near the Bay of Bengalwhere amoderate-to-irregular precipitation distribution wasobserved 0e western and central areas showed significantvariations and irregular distributions

32 Supraseasonal PCI 0e PCI on a supraseasonal scaledemonstrated a complex precipitation distribution acrossthe study area During the JJ period the PCI continued toshow moderate-to-high irregularities 0e northndashwest andsouthndashsoutheast areas had higher PCI values (gt20) 0e

central (excluding Dhaka) and west areas also showedcomparatively higher values while low but irregularly dis-tributed values were observed in the central to northndasheastregions (Figure 3(b)) During the summer (MAMJ) thecentral and western regions experienced strong stormslocally known as ldquoKalbaishakirdquo which are characterized byhigh rainfall and the potential for devastating damage Forthe JD period lower PCI values (lt14) were observed overmost of the study area except for a small region in thesouthndasheast near Coxrsquos Bazar (Figure 3(c)) and were char-acterized by a moderately irregular precipitationdistribution

33 Seasonal PCI 0ree distinct seasons are recognized inBangladesh the premonsoon or summer season (MAMJ) themonsoonrainy season (JASO) and the postmonsoon orwinter season (NDJF) [38] Normally the premonsoon andpostmonsoon seasons receive little rainfall On average 80or more of the countryrsquos annual rainfall occurs during themonsoon season For all regions the postmonsoonmonsoonseasons showed strongly irregularuniform precipitationdistributions (Figures 3(d) and 3(f)) Rainfall in Bangladeshduring the monsoon season is driven by tropical depressionsin the Bay of Bengal [33] 0ese monsoon depressions havea south-to-north trajectory with turns towards the northwestand west deflected by the Meghalaya Plateau Owing to theheight of this plateau uplifted moisture condenses leading toparticularly heavy rainfall over northwestern Bangladesh [33]A moderate precipitation distribution was most common inthe premonsoon season although the northndashwest andsouthndasheast areas showed comparatively higher values (gt12)than the west central and northeast areas (Figure 3(e))Temperature has a significant influence on rainfall duringsummer temperatures can reach 45degC or greater and inwinter they can fall to 5degC in some areas [21]

34 0ree-Month PCI 0e three-month PCI values werehighest in the north and southndasheast and lowest in the centraland northndasheast regions depending on the annual weatherconditions 0e JFM period showed irregular PCI values forall regions with higher values in the southndasheast than those inthe northndashwest (Figure 3(g)) 0e AMJ period showedmoderately uniform premonsoon PCI values (Figure 3(h))which is a period that normally experiences increasingrainfall from April to reach moderate levels during May andJune [39] Early rainfall during this period can sometimescause flooding 0e lowest PCI values during the JAS periodwere less than 10 (Figure 3(i)) and were characterized byuniform precipitation concentrations across the study areaMoreover the periods of JFM and OND showed strongirregularities in the PCI values corresponding to the dryseason [39] Overall the northndashwest area showed the highestPCI values (gt20) while the central south and east areas hadmoderate values and irregular distributions Comparativelylower values were observed in the southndasheast near theChittagong Hill Tracts (Figure 3(j)) where the distributionwas moderate

4 Advances in Meteorology

35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies

were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country

36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

NDJFMAMJJASO

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFFM

MAAM

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFMAMJ

JASOND

SOON

NDDJ

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

MJJJ

JAAS

Regions

PCI v

alue

Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region

Advances in Meteorology 5

and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))

When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern

regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))

0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon

a b c d

e f

i j

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)

6 Advances in Meteorology

season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)

e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly

irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)

37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)

Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF

a b c d

e f

i j k l

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ

Advances in Meteorology 7

during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition

periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]

38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would

a b c

d e f

ig h

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

16ndash1812ndash14

gt20

N

S

W E200 100 0

km

200

Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011

8 Advances in Meteorology

have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover

same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)

a b c

d e f

ig h

N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

400 200 0

km

400

Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011

Advances in Meteorology 9

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

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200

150

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MA200

150

100

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ndash050

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AM

100

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000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

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aD

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MJ060

040

020

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ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

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rtPa

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wip

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adar

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ensin

ghTa

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rsquos Ba

zar

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tubd

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ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

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etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

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imon

gal

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knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

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knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

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imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

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hurd

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aH

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wip

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tubd

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ngam

ati

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akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

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risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

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Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

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wip

Satk

hira

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illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

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Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

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Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

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ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

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hurd

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Bhol

aH

atiy

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imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

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Bhol

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knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

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3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

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akun

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imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

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Bhol

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ndash200

ndash150

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ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

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600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 3: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

angle was 0 e inverse distance weighting (IDW) is anestablished deterministic method for the precipitationconcentration index mapping and one of the most fre-quently used deterministic models in spatial interpolation[35ndash37]

23 PCI Methods PCI is an indicator of rainfall con-centration and rainfall erosivity [28] e PCI values werecalculated on an annual scale for each grid point usingdata from all stations based on the equations of Oliver[27]

PCIannual sum12i1Pi

2

sum12i1Pi( )

2 lowast100 (1)

where Pi is the total precipitation in month i e PCI wasalso calculated on a supraseasonal scale (Equation (2))

from JanuaryndashJune (JJ) and JulyndashDecember (JD) andon a seasonal scale (Equation (3)) for the winter(NovemberndashFebruary NDJF) summer or premonsoon(MarchndashJune MAMJ) and monsoon (JulyndashOctoberJASO)

PCIsuprandashseasonal sum6i1Pi

2

sum6i1Pi( )

2 lowast50 (2)

PCIseasonal sum4i1Pi

2

sum4i1Pi( )

2 lowast333333 (3)

We also calculated the three- and two-month PCI in-tervals (Equations (4) and (5) respectively) to break downthe annual seasonal and supraseasonal precipitation dis-tribution and concentration

88deg30prime

25deg3

0prime24

deg0prime

22deg3

0prime21

deg0prime

90deg0prime 91deg30prime

Meteorological stationsCentral region (CR)Eastern region (ER)

Northern region (NR)Southern and western region (SWR)

Figure 1 Map of the study area

Advances in Meteorology 3

PCIthreeminusmonth interval 1113936

3i1Pi

2

11139363i1Pi1113872 1113873

2 lowast25 (4)

PCItwominusmonth interval 1113936

2i1Pi

2

11139362i1Pi1113872 1113873

2 lowast1667 (5)

As defined by Oliver [27] the PCI values of less than 10represent a uniform precipitation distribution (ie lowprecipitation concentration) the PCI values from 11 to 15denote a moderate precipitation concentration the valuesfrom 16 to 20 denote an irregular distribution and the valuesabove 20 represent strong irregularity (ie high pre-cipitation concentration) According to the analysis of thePCI formulae on annual seasonal and supraseasonal scalesa PCI value of less than 10 indicates perfect uniformity ofprecipitation distribution (ie the same or highly similaramounts of rainfall in each month) At all scales a PCI valueof 16ndash20 indicates that the total precipitation is concentratedin half of the period and a PCI value greater than 20 in-dicates that the total precipitation is concentrated in one-third of the period For example this last value indicates thatmost annual precipitation occurs within four months mostsupraseasonal precipitation occurs within two months andmost seasonal precipitation occurs within one month Inother words intensive rainfall is considered to be uniform ifit occurs throughout the time period but if it occurs withina narrow subset of the time period then its distribution isconsidered to be irregular

To investigate the temporal changes in PCI the PCIvalues were calculated for ten decadal subperiods 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 0e statistical significanceof the difference between decadal periods at each grid pointwas assessed using a trend test with different levels ofprobability categorized as follows exceptionally likely(plt 001) extremely likely (pgt 005) very likely (plt 010)and very low probability (pgt 010)

3 Results and Discussion

31 Annual PCI 0e annual PCI values were moderate withsome irregularities (Figure 2) During the six-month anal-ysis the JJ (JanuaryndashJune) period was very irregular whereasthe JD (JulyndashDecember) period showed a moderate pre-cipitation distribution A moderately irregular distributionwas observed when the four regions shared similar climaticconditions 0e distribution of the annual PCI varied fromlt14 in the northndasheast (along Sylhet Srimangal) to gt18 in thenorth and southndasheast (Figure 3(a)) near the Bay of Bengalwhere amoderate-to-irregular precipitation distribution wasobserved 0e western and central areas showed significantvariations and irregular distributions

32 Supraseasonal PCI 0e PCI on a supraseasonal scaledemonstrated a complex precipitation distribution acrossthe study area During the JJ period the PCI continued toshow moderate-to-high irregularities 0e northndashwest andsouthndashsoutheast areas had higher PCI values (gt20) 0e

central (excluding Dhaka) and west areas also showedcomparatively higher values while low but irregularly dis-tributed values were observed in the central to northndasheastregions (Figure 3(b)) During the summer (MAMJ) thecentral and western regions experienced strong stormslocally known as ldquoKalbaishakirdquo which are characterized byhigh rainfall and the potential for devastating damage Forthe JD period lower PCI values (lt14) were observed overmost of the study area except for a small region in thesouthndasheast near Coxrsquos Bazar (Figure 3(c)) and were char-acterized by a moderately irregular precipitationdistribution

33 Seasonal PCI 0ree distinct seasons are recognized inBangladesh the premonsoon or summer season (MAMJ) themonsoonrainy season (JASO) and the postmonsoon orwinter season (NDJF) [38] Normally the premonsoon andpostmonsoon seasons receive little rainfall On average 80or more of the countryrsquos annual rainfall occurs during themonsoon season For all regions the postmonsoonmonsoonseasons showed strongly irregularuniform precipitationdistributions (Figures 3(d) and 3(f)) Rainfall in Bangladeshduring the monsoon season is driven by tropical depressionsin the Bay of Bengal [33] 0ese monsoon depressions havea south-to-north trajectory with turns towards the northwestand west deflected by the Meghalaya Plateau Owing to theheight of this plateau uplifted moisture condenses leading toparticularly heavy rainfall over northwestern Bangladesh [33]A moderate precipitation distribution was most common inthe premonsoon season although the northndashwest andsouthndasheast areas showed comparatively higher values (gt12)than the west central and northeast areas (Figure 3(e))Temperature has a significant influence on rainfall duringsummer temperatures can reach 45degC or greater and inwinter they can fall to 5degC in some areas [21]

34 0ree-Month PCI 0e three-month PCI values werehighest in the north and southndasheast and lowest in the centraland northndasheast regions depending on the annual weatherconditions 0e JFM period showed irregular PCI values forall regions with higher values in the southndasheast than those inthe northndashwest (Figure 3(g)) 0e AMJ period showedmoderately uniform premonsoon PCI values (Figure 3(h))which is a period that normally experiences increasingrainfall from April to reach moderate levels during May andJune [39] Early rainfall during this period can sometimescause flooding 0e lowest PCI values during the JAS periodwere less than 10 (Figure 3(i)) and were characterized byuniform precipitation concentrations across the study areaMoreover the periods of JFM and OND showed strongirregularities in the PCI values corresponding to the dryseason [39] Overall the northndashwest area showed the highestPCI values (gt20) while the central south and east areas hadmoderate values and irregular distributions Comparativelylower values were observed in the southndasheast near theChittagong Hill Tracts (Figure 3(j)) where the distributionwas moderate

4 Advances in Meteorology

35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies

were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country

36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

NDJFMAMJJASO

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFFM

MAAM

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFMAMJ

JASOND

SOON

NDDJ

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

MJJJ

JAAS

Regions

PCI v

alue

Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region

Advances in Meteorology 5

and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))

When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern

regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))

0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon

a b c d

e f

i j

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)

6 Advances in Meteorology

season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)

e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly

irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)

37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)

Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF

a b c d

e f

i j k l

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ

Advances in Meteorology 7

during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition

periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]

38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would

a b c

d e f

ig h

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

16ndash1812ndash14

gt20

N

S

W E200 100 0

km

200

Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011

8 Advances in Meteorology

have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover

same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)

a b c

d e f

ig h

N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

400 200 0

km

400

Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011

Advances in Meteorology 9

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

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pupa

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akun

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gal

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etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

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hurd

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jshah

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risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

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ssor

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rtPa

tuak

hali

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wip

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illa

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kaFa

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adar

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Mym

ensin

ghTa

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ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

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wip

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hira

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dpur

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illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

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ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

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rtPa

tuak

hali

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wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

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illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

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adar

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ensin

ghTa

ngai

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ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

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wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

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ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

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rtPa

tuak

hali

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wip

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hira

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dpur

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illa

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ridpu

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adar

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Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

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ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

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rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

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Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

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wip

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dpur

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illa

Dha

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ensin

ghTa

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ittag

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rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

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wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

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adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

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ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

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hurd

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Bhol

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atiy

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wip

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dpur

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illa

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adar

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ensin

ghTa

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ittag

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Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

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ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

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Page 4: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

PCIthreeminusmonth interval 1113936

3i1Pi

2

11139363i1Pi1113872 1113873

2 lowast25 (4)

PCItwominusmonth interval 1113936

2i1Pi

2

11139362i1Pi1113872 1113873

2 lowast1667 (5)

As defined by Oliver [27] the PCI values of less than 10represent a uniform precipitation distribution (ie lowprecipitation concentration) the PCI values from 11 to 15denote a moderate precipitation concentration the valuesfrom 16 to 20 denote an irregular distribution and the valuesabove 20 represent strong irregularity (ie high pre-cipitation concentration) According to the analysis of thePCI formulae on annual seasonal and supraseasonal scalesa PCI value of less than 10 indicates perfect uniformity ofprecipitation distribution (ie the same or highly similaramounts of rainfall in each month) At all scales a PCI valueof 16ndash20 indicates that the total precipitation is concentratedin half of the period and a PCI value greater than 20 in-dicates that the total precipitation is concentrated in one-third of the period For example this last value indicates thatmost annual precipitation occurs within four months mostsupraseasonal precipitation occurs within two months andmost seasonal precipitation occurs within one month Inother words intensive rainfall is considered to be uniform ifit occurs throughout the time period but if it occurs withina narrow subset of the time period then its distribution isconsidered to be irregular

To investigate the temporal changes in PCI the PCIvalues were calculated for ten decadal subperiods 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 0e statistical significanceof the difference between decadal periods at each grid pointwas assessed using a trend test with different levels ofprobability categorized as follows exceptionally likely(plt 001) extremely likely (pgt 005) very likely (plt 010)and very low probability (pgt 010)

3 Results and Discussion

31 Annual PCI 0e annual PCI values were moderate withsome irregularities (Figure 2) During the six-month anal-ysis the JJ (JanuaryndashJune) period was very irregular whereasthe JD (JulyndashDecember) period showed a moderate pre-cipitation distribution A moderately irregular distributionwas observed when the four regions shared similar climaticconditions 0e distribution of the annual PCI varied fromlt14 in the northndasheast (along Sylhet Srimangal) to gt18 in thenorth and southndasheast (Figure 3(a)) near the Bay of Bengalwhere amoderate-to-irregular precipitation distribution wasobserved 0e western and central areas showed significantvariations and irregular distributions

32 Supraseasonal PCI 0e PCI on a supraseasonal scaledemonstrated a complex precipitation distribution acrossthe study area During the JJ period the PCI continued toshow moderate-to-high irregularities 0e northndashwest andsouthndashsoutheast areas had higher PCI values (gt20) 0e

central (excluding Dhaka) and west areas also showedcomparatively higher values while low but irregularly dis-tributed values were observed in the central to northndasheastregions (Figure 3(b)) During the summer (MAMJ) thecentral and western regions experienced strong stormslocally known as ldquoKalbaishakirdquo which are characterized byhigh rainfall and the potential for devastating damage Forthe JD period lower PCI values (lt14) were observed overmost of the study area except for a small region in thesouthndasheast near Coxrsquos Bazar (Figure 3(c)) and were char-acterized by a moderately irregular precipitationdistribution

33 Seasonal PCI 0ree distinct seasons are recognized inBangladesh the premonsoon or summer season (MAMJ) themonsoonrainy season (JASO) and the postmonsoon orwinter season (NDJF) [38] Normally the premonsoon andpostmonsoon seasons receive little rainfall On average 80or more of the countryrsquos annual rainfall occurs during themonsoon season For all regions the postmonsoonmonsoonseasons showed strongly irregularuniform precipitationdistributions (Figures 3(d) and 3(f)) Rainfall in Bangladeshduring the monsoon season is driven by tropical depressionsin the Bay of Bengal [33] 0ese monsoon depressions havea south-to-north trajectory with turns towards the northwestand west deflected by the Meghalaya Plateau Owing to theheight of this plateau uplifted moisture condenses leading toparticularly heavy rainfall over northwestern Bangladesh [33]A moderate precipitation distribution was most common inthe premonsoon season although the northndashwest andsouthndasheast areas showed comparatively higher values (gt12)than the west central and northeast areas (Figure 3(e))Temperature has a significant influence on rainfall duringsummer temperatures can reach 45degC or greater and inwinter they can fall to 5degC in some areas [21]

34 0ree-Month PCI 0e three-month PCI values werehighest in the north and southndasheast and lowest in the centraland northndasheast regions depending on the annual weatherconditions 0e JFM period showed irregular PCI values forall regions with higher values in the southndasheast than those inthe northndashwest (Figure 3(g)) 0e AMJ period showedmoderately uniform premonsoon PCI values (Figure 3(h))which is a period that normally experiences increasingrainfall from April to reach moderate levels during May andJune [39] Early rainfall during this period can sometimescause flooding 0e lowest PCI values during the JAS periodwere less than 10 (Figure 3(i)) and were characterized byuniform precipitation concentrations across the study areaMoreover the periods of JFM and OND showed strongirregularities in the PCI values corresponding to the dryseason [39] Overall the northndashwest area showed the highestPCI values (gt20) while the central south and east areas hadmoderate values and irregular distributions Comparativelylower values were observed in the southndasheast near theChittagong Hill Tracts (Figure 3(j)) where the distributionwas moderate

4 Advances in Meteorology

35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies

were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country

36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

NDJFMAMJJASO

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFFM

MAAM

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFMAMJ

JASOND

SOON

NDDJ

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

MJJJ

JAAS

Regions

PCI v

alue

Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region

Advances in Meteorology 5

and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))

When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern

regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))

0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon

a b c d

e f

i j

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)

6 Advances in Meteorology

season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)

e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly

irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)

37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)

Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF

a b c d

e f

i j k l

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ

Advances in Meteorology 7

during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition

periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]

38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would

a b c

d e f

ig h

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

16ndash1812ndash14

gt20

N

S

W E200 100 0

km

200

Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011

8 Advances in Meteorology

have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover

same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)

a b c

d e f

ig h

N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

400 200 0

km

400

Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011

Advances in Meteorology 9

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

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aD

inajp

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hurd

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inajp

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hurd

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Bhol

aH

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rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

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ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

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eKe

pupa

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Khu

tubd

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ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

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Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

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rtPa

tuak

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wip

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illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

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adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

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rtPa

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wip

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hira

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kaFa

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adar

ipur

Mym

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ghTa

ngai

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ittag

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Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

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hurd

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ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

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inajp

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000

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ndash150

ndash100

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000

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ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

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ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 5: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies

were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country

36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

NDJFMAMJJASO

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFFM

MAAM

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

JFMAMJ

JASOND

SOON

NDDJ

BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR

25

20

15

10

5

0

MJJJ

JAAS

Regions

PCI v

alue

Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region

Advances in Meteorology 5

and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))

When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern

regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))

0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon

a b c d

e f

i j

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)

6 Advances in Meteorology

season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)

e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly

irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)

37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)

Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF

a b c d

e f

i j k l

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ

Advances in Meteorology 7

during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition

periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]

38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would

a b c

d e f

ig h

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

16ndash1812ndash14

gt20

N

S

W E200 100 0

km

200

Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011

8 Advances in Meteorology

have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover

same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)

a b c

d e f

ig h

N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

400 200 0

km

400

Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011

Advances in Meteorology 9

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 6: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))

When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern

regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))

0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon

a b c d

e f

i j

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)

6 Advances in Meteorology

season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)

e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly

irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)

37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)

Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF

a b c d

e f

i j k l

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ

Advances in Meteorology 7

during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition

periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]

38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would

a b c

d e f

ig h

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

16ndash1812ndash14

gt20

N

S

W E200 100 0

km

200

Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011

8 Advances in Meteorology

have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover

same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)

a b c

d e f

ig h

N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

400 200 0

km

400

Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011

Advances in Meteorology 9

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

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ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

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Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2018

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Geophysics

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

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Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

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Agronomy

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MeteorologyAdvances in

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The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

ChemistryAdvances in

ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Geological ResearchJournal of

Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

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Page 7: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)

e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly

irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)

37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)

Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF

a b c d

e f

i j k l

g h

400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ

Advances in Meteorology 7

during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition

periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]

38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would

a b c

d e f

ig h

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

16ndash1812ndash14

gt20

N

S

W E200 100 0

km

200

Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011

8 Advances in Meteorology

have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover

same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)

a b c

d e f

ig h

N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

400 200 0

km

400

Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011

Advances in Meteorology 9

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

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rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

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ensin

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zar

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tubd

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ati

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akun

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imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

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jshah

iRa

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risal

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aH

atiy

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ssor

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ensin

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ong

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rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

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ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

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aM

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rtPa

tuak

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illa

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kaFa

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rM

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ensin

ghTa

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ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

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aM

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rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

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kaFa

ridpu

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ensin

ghTa

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ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

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ati

Sith

akun

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imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

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rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

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ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

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ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

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ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

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eKe

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aM

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rtPa

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Satk

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Com

illa

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kaFa

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ensin

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Khu

tubd

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ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

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aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

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Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

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rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

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ngai

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ong

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zar

Khu

tubd

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ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

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aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

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wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

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rM

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ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

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rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 8: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition

periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]

38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would

a b c

d e f

ig h

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

16ndash1812ndash14

gt20

N

S

W E200 100 0

km

200

Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011

8 Advances in Meteorology

have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover

same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)

a b c

d e f

ig h

N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

400 200 0

km

400

Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011

Advances in Meteorology 9

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Marine BiologyJournal of

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EcologyInternational Journal of

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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2018

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 9: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover

same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)

a b c

d e f

ig h

N

S

W Elt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18

gt20

400 200 0

km

400

Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011

Advances in Meteorology 9

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 10: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall

in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering

Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh

Timescaleap value

Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011

10 Advances in Meteorology

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 11: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

a b c d e f

g h i j k l

m n o p q r

s t u v w x

y z A B C D

E F G H I K

lt10

14ndash16

10ndash12

18ndash20

12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0

km

400N

S

W Egt20

Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh

Advances in Meteorology 11

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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Marine BiologyJournal of

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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 12: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

300250200150100050000

ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JF

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300FM

200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

ndash200

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MA200

150

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

AM

100

050

000

ndash050

ndash100

ndash150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

MJ060

040

020

000

ndash020

ndash040

ndash060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

JJ

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Continued

12 Advances in Meteorology

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2018

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Geophysics

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Microbiology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Public Health Advances in

AgricultureAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Agronomy

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MeteorologyAdvances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

ChemistryAdvances in

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Geological ResearchJournal of

Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 13: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]

4 Conclusion

Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash060

ndash040

ndash020

000

020

040

060

080

ndash100

ndash080

ndash040

040

ndash020

020

000

ndash060

060

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

ndash050

ndash050

ndash100

ndash100

ndash150

ndash150

ndash200

ndash200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000ndash050

050

ndash100

100

ndash150

150

ndash200

200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

000

ndash100

100

ndash200

ndash300

200

300

400DJND

SO ON

ASJA

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)

Advances in Meteorology 13

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 14: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values

showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200250

A

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash500

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

3006_JJ

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050

000050100150200

ndash250

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash200

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150

Bogr

aD

inajp

urIs

hurd

iRa

jshah

iRa

ngpu

rBa

risal

Bhol

aH

atiy

aJe

ssor

eKe

pupa

raK

huln

aM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Cox

rsquos Ba

zar

Khu

tubd

iaRa

ngam

ati

Sith

akun

duSr

imon

gal

Sylh

etTe

knaf

ndash600

ndash400

ndash200

000

200

400

600

6_JD NDJF

MAMJ JASO

1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

14 Advances in Meteorology

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

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EcologyInternational Journal of

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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 15: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

Tabl

e2

PCItrendover

theperiod

of1980ndash2

011

Station

Ann

ual

6mon

th_JJ

6mon

th_JD

NDJF

MAMJ

JASO

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

JFFM

MA

AM

MJ

JJJA

As

SOON

ND

DJ

Bogra

003

001

minus001

016

000

002

005

000

001

009

010

006

001minus0

04

001

000

001

000

000

000

006

010

Dinajpu

rminus0

05minus0

01

minus002

021minus0

02minus0

02

010minus0

02

000

010

001

003

001minus0

06minus0

01minus0

05

000

001

000

001minus0

03

004

Ishu

rdi

006

002

002

025

000

001

012

001

000

008

005

006

000minus0

05

002

000minus0

01

000

003

006

003

008

Rajsh

ahi

004

005

004

040

001

001

016

000

001

011

013

007

003

000minus0

03

000

001minus0

03

002

005

006

009

Rang

pur

minus005minus0

07

minus004

016minus0

06minus0

04

011minus0

05

001

004

002

009minus0

02minus0

05minus0

02minus0

03

001

003minus0

07

001

003

004

Barisal

006

011

minus001

005

006minus0

02

012

006

000

013

008

003minus0

04

000

002

001

000minus0

01

001

003

004

012

Bhola

007

010

minus001

020

004minus0

02

010

002

001

013

002

008minus0

06

005minus0

02

002

002minus0

01minus0

04

006

008

000

Hatiya

003

013

minus003

002

009minus0

03

009

004minus0

01

019

002

001minus0

03

007minus0

02

000

001minus0

01minus0

05

008

009

015

Jessore

007

006

001

006

001minus0

01

005

000

000minus0

02minus0

03

003minus0

03minus0

01minus0

02

001

001minus0

04

002

000minus0

02

008

Kepup

ara

001

004

minus006

010

003minus0

05

014

001minus0

02

016minus0

04

021

009

005minus0

02

003

000minus0

03minus0

05

004

012

012

Khu

lna

005

010

minus003

021

005minus0

04

012

002minus0

03

012

005

007minus0

07

003minus0

02

000minus0

01minus0

04

004

003

007

010

MC

ourt

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Ppatuakh

ali

009

010

minus001

023

008minus0

02

020

005

001

015

002

014minus0

02

004minus0

01

004

002minus0

01minus0

07

006

008

008

Sand

wip

005

010

minus004

004

006minus0

03

024

004minus0

02

011

004

011minus0

02

011minus0

05minus0

01minus0

01

000minus0

04

004

000

004

Satkhira

004

013

minus001

006

005minus0

02

024

003minus0

01

004

006

010minus0

01

003

001

000

001

000minus0

03

002

012

009

Chand

pur

003

010

minus003

021

007

001

006

005

001

006

004

003minus0

02

005

001

004

001minus0

01

000

000

004

008

Com

illa

010

013

001

006

008

000

007

005

002

009

004

000minus0

02

005

002

003

001

000minus0

07

008

010

009

Dhaka

010

012

004

004

008

002

012

006

002

012minus0

08

004

001

003

002

000minus0

03

002minus0

01

006

013

014

Faridp

ur014

022

008

001

016

003

015

012

003

013minus0

03

012

012

003

006

001

001

000

000

006

000

001

Madaripur

minus003

016

minus010

007

009minus0

07

008

006minus0

01

011

000

002

007

003

000minus0

01minus0

01minus0

03minus0

07

002

015

007

Mmym

ensin

gh002

001

003

008minus0

01

001

006

000

000

006

002minus0

01

002minus0

03

000minus0

02minus0

02

000

002

002

002

012

Tang

ail

009

010

006

030

006

003

013

005

002

016

002

011

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

006

004

015

Chitta

gong

001

009

minus013

006

005minus0

09

010

002minus0

06minus0

01

002

008

005

004minus0

03

003minus0

03

000

000

000

000

003

coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB

Bazarminus0

03minus0

12

minus004

002minus0

09minus0

05

009minus0

09minus0

02

011minus0

04

011

000

006minus0

09

001minus0

01minus0

03minus0

05

006

003

011

Khu

tubd

iaminus0

03minus0

01

minus013

009minus0

01minus0

11

009minus0

02minus0

07

025

002

008minus0

02

010minus0

06

002minus0

04minus0

05minus0

04

014

004

011

Rang

amati

013

030

minus001

003

018minus0

02

009

011minus0

01

008minus0

07

013

004

006

003

002

000minus0

01minus0

01

008

003

000

Sithakun

du006

009

minus001minus0

01

004minus0

02

012

000minus0

03

013

009

008

001

002minus0

04

001minus0

03

000minus0

03

007

000

002

Srim

ongal

001

004

000

022

003minus0

01

010

002

001

012

002

005minus0

05

004minus0

02

000

000

001minus0

05

004

010

011

Sylhet

003

004

001

028

002

001

012

002

000

011

005

006

000

001minus0

01

000

000

000minus0

05

000minus0

05

018

Tekn

af009

009

006

027

005

003

014

005

002

015

001

010

001

003

000

001minus0

01

001

000

005

004

015

Advances in Meteorology 15

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2018

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Geophysics

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Microbiology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Public Health Advances in

AgricultureAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Agronomy

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MeteorologyAdvances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

ChemistryAdvances in

ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Geological ResearchJournal of

Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 16: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution

Data Availability

e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request

Conflicts of Interest

e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper

Authorsrsquo Contributions

Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent

Acknowledgments

is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020

000020040060080100

Series 1Series 2Series 3

JAS

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

Series 1Series 2Series 3

OND

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash400

ndash300

ndash200

ndash100

000

100

200

300

400JFM

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Bogr

aD

inaj

pur

Ishu

rdi

Rajsh

ahi

Rang

pur

Baris

alBh

ola

Hat

iya

Jess

ore

Kepu

para

Khul

naM

Cou

rtPa

tuak

hali

Sand

wip

Satk

hira

Chan

dpur

Com

illa

Dha

kaFa

ridpu

rM

adar

ipur

Mym

ensin

ghTa

ngai

lCh

ittag

ong

Coxrsquo

s Baz

arKh

utub

dia

Rang

amat

iSi

thak

undu

Srim

onga

lSy

lhet

Tekn

af

ndash150

ndash100

ndash050

000

050

100

150AMJ

Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)

16 Advances in Meteorology

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2018

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Geophysics

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Microbiology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Public Health Advances in

AgricultureAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Agronomy

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MeteorologyAdvances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

ChemistryAdvances in

ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Geological ResearchJournal of

Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 17: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

References

[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003

[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004

[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014

[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009

[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002

[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007

[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008

[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012

[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992

[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009

[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005

[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007

[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007

[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds

Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007

[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993

[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997

[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009

[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005

[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009

[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003

[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010

[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010

[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012

[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998

[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011

[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980

[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992

[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006

[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017

[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016

[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal

Advances in Meteorology 17

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2018

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Geophysics

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Microbiology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Public Health Advances in

AgricultureAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Agronomy

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MeteorologyAdvances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

ChemistryAdvances in

ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Geological ResearchJournal of

Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 18: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009

[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003

[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005

[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003

[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011

[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014

[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991

[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017

[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007

[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018

[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015

[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016

18 Advances in Meteorology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2018

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Geophysics

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Microbiology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Public Health Advances in

AgricultureAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Agronomy

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MeteorologyAdvances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

ChemistryAdvances in

ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Geological ResearchJournal of

Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 19: PrecipitationConcentrationinBangladeshoverDifferent ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2018/1849050.pdf · winter monsoon, they follow the N–S direction where JAS and JFM showed

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2018

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Geophysics

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Microbiology

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Public Health Advances in

AgricultureAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Agronomy

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MeteorologyAdvances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

ChemistryAdvances in

ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Geological ResearchJournal of

Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom