precipitationconcentrationinbangladeshoverdifferent...
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Research ArticlePrecipitation Concentration in Bangladesh over DifferentTemporal Periods
Md Anarul Haque Mondol 1 Al-Mamun2 Mehedi Iqbal1 and Dong-Ho Jang 2
1Department of Geography and Environment Jahangirnagar University Savar Dhaka 1342 Bangladesh2Department of Geography College of Social Science Kongju National University Singwan-Dong Gongju-siChungnam-do 32588 Republic of Korea
Correspondence should be addressed to Dong-Ho Jang gisrskongjuackr
Received 6 April 2018 Revised 1 August 2018 Accepted 17 September 2018 Published 22 November 2018
Academic Editor Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero
Copyright copy 2018 Md Anarul Haque Mondol et al 0is is an open access article distributed under the Creative CommonsAttribution License which permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in anymedium provided the original work isproperly cited
Precipitation concentration is an important component of climate and an unbalanced distribution of precipitation can yieldexcess or scarcity of water resources which in turn can influence plant growth flood risk and water resource use 0eprecipitation concentration index (PCI) is a well-known indicator for the measurement of temporal precipitation in a short orlong area 0e purpose of this study was to analyze precipitation concentration rates in different regions of Bangladesh usingthe precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the inverse distance weighting method In this study the rainfall data from 30meteorological observatory stations across Bangladesh were collected for the period 1980 to 2011 We defined periods ofvarying lengths (ie annual supraseasonal seasonal and three- and two-month rainfall concentrations) and compared theirPCI values 0e results showed that precipitation concentrations were mostly irregular when rainfall was concentrated withintwo to four months of the year Higher PCI values were mainly identified in the eastern region and have strong seasonalinfluences whereas lower PCI values were mostly observed in the northern region 0e analyses of periodic variation andprecipitation in Bangladesh generally follow through the SWndashNE direction due to the summer monsoon while during thewinter monsoon they follow the NndashS direction where JAS and JFM showed higher and lower PCI values We observedvariations in PCI among different regions using the KruskalndashWallis test of the mean PCI on a decadal scale (1980ndash19891990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011) 0e result showed that significant changes in the precipitation occurred during the period of1980ndash2011 At a two-month scale significant changes were identified during transition periods where PCI values were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than those in the earlier decades
1 Introduction
Climate change due to global worming is a major concerningissue in the world Precipitation is changing on global andregional scales by the influence of warming [1ndash4] For re-gions prone to hydrological disasters (eg Bangladesh) theimplications of these changes are particularly significant [5]It has been suggested that water cycle modification is one ofthe most notable consequences of global atmosphericwarming [6] Precipitation intensity amounts and patternsare expected to change and extreme weather events such asdroughts and floods are likely to occur more frequently [7]
0e amount and intensity of precipitation can influence soilerosion slope instability plant growth and agriculturalpractices [8 9] as well as modify fluvial systems ground-water recharge water disposal and hydroelectric projects[10 11] Precipitation conveyance and measurement canprovide a better understanding of the exact mechanismsdriving these phenomena for disaster prediction and watermanagement [12]
0e IPCCndash2007 report found a precipitation increasefrom 1900 to 2005 north of latitude of 30deg [13] and Ban-gladesh which is one of the most flood-prone areas of theworld was highlighted as one of the most vulnerable
HindawiAdvances in MeteorologyVolume 2018 Article ID 1849050 18 pageshttpsdoiorg10115520181849050
countries [14] 0e variation of precipitation distribution inBangladesh is a unique characteristic for climatic change Inthe Bay of Bengal the hydrological cycle is dominated byvery high spatial and temporal variability and predictionsfor the end of the 21st century show a high degree ofuncertainty [15] Due to the monsoon season pre-cipitation concentration increased dramatically while thatin the winter season decreased For the case of dynamiccombination generally Bangladesh faced extreme floodsand longer periods of droughts [5 16 17] 0e north-western part of the country drought is a common phe-nomenon and became a growing concern in the recentyears 0e report confirmed a precipitation decrease intropical areas and an increase in areas affected by droughtin tropical and subtropical areas since the 1970s [13]Several studies in the world indicate that global warminghas strong influence on precipitation variation as well asextreme weather events like floods droughts and thun-derstorms [18 19 20] Bangladesh is renowned foragricultural-based country where about 80 of people aredirectly or indirectly involved in agricultural activities astheir main profession [21] Precipitation and its intensityare important factors on the Bangladesh climate for ag-ricultural production [22] Due to global warming hy-drological changes are the most significant impacts ofclimate change in Bangladesh 0e study of precipitationconcentration intensity on seasonal variation is essentialfor agriculture disaster mitigation and water resourcesplanning and management in Bangladesh in the context ofglobal climatic change [23]
Although many studies in Bangladesh have consideredgeneral rainfall and temperature characteristics few havestudied the intensity and distribution of rainfall in thisregion [22] Furthermore most research has been per-formed on an annual or six months basis and smallertemporal-scale analyses are lacking Although there is nosingle research method that can comprehensively examinechanges in precipitation over time it is worth consideringhow different methods can be applied to certain situations[24] For example some studies have applied a pre-cipitation variability focus in regions influenced by extremeprecipitation events [25] Several straightforward in-dicators can be used to assess variability and analyze hy-drological processes [26] Among them the precipitationconcentration index (PCI) [27] is recommended since itprovides information on long-term total variability of therainfall amount [26 28 29] Iskander et al [22] used thePCI to show an irregular precipitation distribution acrossBangladesh especially in the southeast region and othertrend analysis studies have examined long-term changes inprecipitation over Bangladesh [30 31]
0is study analyzed the spatial and temporal pre-cipitation variability using the PCI calculated from denseprecipitation datasets collected by the Bangladesh Mete-orological Department (BMD) A geographic informa-tion system (GIS) was used for the development ofa regional variation map to which we applied the in-verse distance weighted method 0e PCI was calcu-lated for annual supraseasonal seasonal and three- and
two-month data over a period of 30 years (1980ndash2011)0is enabled decadal comparisons (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011) between four regions covering thewhole study area
2 Data and Methods
21 Study Area Bangladesh is a low-lying river-dominatedcountry consisting primarily of flat plains It occupies anarea of 147570 km2 and geographically extends from 20deg34primeN to 26deg38prime N and from 88deg01prime E to 92deg41prime E Most of thepopulation lives in rural areas and directly or indirectlydepends on agricultural activities A sub-tropical monsoonclimate is strongly active and the country is sometimesaffected by tropical cyclones [32] 0e country experiencesa vast amount of rainfall annually On average 78 ofrainfall in Bangladesh occurs during the monsoon and iscaused by weak tropical depressions that are carried from theBay of Bengal by wet monsoon winds [33 34] Precipitationconcentration varies within the country and the meanannual precipitation varies from a maximum of 5690mm inthe northeast to a minimum of 1110mm in the west [21]Bangladesh has 30 meteorological observatories (Figure 1)all of which were included in this study To better un-derstand rainfall variation the country was divided into fourregions north-northwest central east-southeast and south-southwest
22 Study Process In this study precipitation concentra-tion changes at different temporal intervals were comparedfor the four regions of Bangladesh Data were collectedfrom the BMD from 1980 to 2011 and used as the input datafor PCI analysis Dataset quality is an important indicatorfor obtaining good results and was carefully controlledbefore the data were released Generally all stations werefound to be homogeneous therefore the datasets fromeach station were included in this analysis First we per-formed a comparative correlation between the PCI valuesfor the two- and three-month temporal intervals to un-derstand specific variations 0en we defined uniformmoderate irregular and highly irregular precipitationdistributions and seasonal variations for specific regionsFor the spatial analysis of precipitation we interpolateddata from all weather stations onto a regular grid Finallywe analyzed the annual supraseasonal seasonal and three-and two-month PCI values using the KruskalndashWallis test toidentify statistical significance among the decades 0emajor objective of this research was to analyze rainfalltrend and irregular distribution over the study area atvarious temporal intervals
0e geographic information system (GIS) tools havebeen used for the PCI mapping Under the geostatisticalanalysis the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method wasconsidered in the study to interpolate the PCI data of thecountry In interpolation the power was considered as 2the searching neighborhood was standard the neigh-borhoods were at least 10 and neighbors to include was 15major semiaxis was 152 minor semiaxis was 152 and the
2 Advances in Meteorology
angle was 0 e inverse distance weighting (IDW) is anestablished deterministic method for the precipitationconcentration index mapping and one of the most fre-quently used deterministic models in spatial interpolation[35ndash37]
23 PCI Methods PCI is an indicator of rainfall con-centration and rainfall erosivity [28] e PCI values werecalculated on an annual scale for each grid point usingdata from all stations based on the equations of Oliver[27]
PCIannual sum12i1Pi
2
sum12i1Pi( )
2 lowast100 (1)
where Pi is the total precipitation in month i e PCI wasalso calculated on a supraseasonal scale (Equation (2))
from JanuaryndashJune (JJ) and JulyndashDecember (JD) andon a seasonal scale (Equation (3)) for the winter(NovemberndashFebruary NDJF) summer or premonsoon(MarchndashJune MAMJ) and monsoon (JulyndashOctoberJASO)
PCIsuprandashseasonal sum6i1Pi
2
sum6i1Pi( )
2 lowast50 (2)
PCIseasonal sum4i1Pi
2
sum4i1Pi( )
2 lowast333333 (3)
We also calculated the three- and two-month PCI in-tervals (Equations (4) and (5) respectively) to break downthe annual seasonal and supraseasonal precipitation dis-tribution and concentration
88deg30prime
25deg3
0prime24
deg0prime
22deg3
0prime21
deg0prime
90deg0prime 91deg30prime
Meteorological stationsCentral region (CR)Eastern region (ER)
Northern region (NR)Southern and western region (SWR)
Figure 1 Map of the study area
Advances in Meteorology 3
PCIthreeminusmonth interval 1113936
3i1Pi
2
11139363i1Pi1113872 1113873
2 lowast25 (4)
PCItwominusmonth interval 1113936
2i1Pi
2
11139362i1Pi1113872 1113873
2 lowast1667 (5)
As defined by Oliver [27] the PCI values of less than 10represent a uniform precipitation distribution (ie lowprecipitation concentration) the PCI values from 11 to 15denote a moderate precipitation concentration the valuesfrom 16 to 20 denote an irregular distribution and the valuesabove 20 represent strong irregularity (ie high pre-cipitation concentration) According to the analysis of thePCI formulae on annual seasonal and supraseasonal scalesa PCI value of less than 10 indicates perfect uniformity ofprecipitation distribution (ie the same or highly similaramounts of rainfall in each month) At all scales a PCI valueof 16ndash20 indicates that the total precipitation is concentratedin half of the period and a PCI value greater than 20 in-dicates that the total precipitation is concentrated in one-third of the period For example this last value indicates thatmost annual precipitation occurs within four months mostsupraseasonal precipitation occurs within two months andmost seasonal precipitation occurs within one month Inother words intensive rainfall is considered to be uniform ifit occurs throughout the time period but if it occurs withina narrow subset of the time period then its distribution isconsidered to be irregular
To investigate the temporal changes in PCI the PCIvalues were calculated for ten decadal subperiods 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 0e statistical significanceof the difference between decadal periods at each grid pointwas assessed using a trend test with different levels ofprobability categorized as follows exceptionally likely(plt 001) extremely likely (pgt 005) very likely (plt 010)and very low probability (pgt 010)
3 Results and Discussion
31 Annual PCI 0e annual PCI values were moderate withsome irregularities (Figure 2) During the six-month anal-ysis the JJ (JanuaryndashJune) period was very irregular whereasthe JD (JulyndashDecember) period showed a moderate pre-cipitation distribution A moderately irregular distributionwas observed when the four regions shared similar climaticconditions 0e distribution of the annual PCI varied fromlt14 in the northndasheast (along Sylhet Srimangal) to gt18 in thenorth and southndasheast (Figure 3(a)) near the Bay of Bengalwhere amoderate-to-irregular precipitation distribution wasobserved 0e western and central areas showed significantvariations and irregular distributions
32 Supraseasonal PCI 0e PCI on a supraseasonal scaledemonstrated a complex precipitation distribution acrossthe study area During the JJ period the PCI continued toshow moderate-to-high irregularities 0e northndashwest andsouthndashsoutheast areas had higher PCI values (gt20) 0e
central (excluding Dhaka) and west areas also showedcomparatively higher values while low but irregularly dis-tributed values were observed in the central to northndasheastregions (Figure 3(b)) During the summer (MAMJ) thecentral and western regions experienced strong stormslocally known as ldquoKalbaishakirdquo which are characterized byhigh rainfall and the potential for devastating damage Forthe JD period lower PCI values (lt14) were observed overmost of the study area except for a small region in thesouthndasheast near Coxrsquos Bazar (Figure 3(c)) and were char-acterized by a moderately irregular precipitationdistribution
33 Seasonal PCI 0ree distinct seasons are recognized inBangladesh the premonsoon or summer season (MAMJ) themonsoonrainy season (JASO) and the postmonsoon orwinter season (NDJF) [38] Normally the premonsoon andpostmonsoon seasons receive little rainfall On average 80or more of the countryrsquos annual rainfall occurs during themonsoon season For all regions the postmonsoonmonsoonseasons showed strongly irregularuniform precipitationdistributions (Figures 3(d) and 3(f)) Rainfall in Bangladeshduring the monsoon season is driven by tropical depressionsin the Bay of Bengal [33] 0ese monsoon depressions havea south-to-north trajectory with turns towards the northwestand west deflected by the Meghalaya Plateau Owing to theheight of this plateau uplifted moisture condenses leading toparticularly heavy rainfall over northwestern Bangladesh [33]A moderate precipitation distribution was most common inthe premonsoon season although the northndashwest andsouthndasheast areas showed comparatively higher values (gt12)than the west central and northeast areas (Figure 3(e))Temperature has a significant influence on rainfall duringsummer temperatures can reach 45degC or greater and inwinter they can fall to 5degC in some areas [21]
34 0ree-Month PCI 0e three-month PCI values werehighest in the north and southndasheast and lowest in the centraland northndasheast regions depending on the annual weatherconditions 0e JFM period showed irregular PCI values forall regions with higher values in the southndasheast than those inthe northndashwest (Figure 3(g)) 0e AMJ period showedmoderately uniform premonsoon PCI values (Figure 3(h))which is a period that normally experiences increasingrainfall from April to reach moderate levels during May andJune [39] Early rainfall during this period can sometimescause flooding 0e lowest PCI values during the JAS periodwere less than 10 (Figure 3(i)) and were characterized byuniform precipitation concentrations across the study areaMoreover the periods of JFM and OND showed strongirregularities in the PCI values corresponding to the dryseason [39] Overall the northndashwest area showed the highestPCI values (gt20) while the central south and east areas hadmoderate values and irregular distributions Comparativelylower values were observed in the southndasheast near theChittagong Hill Tracts (Figure 3(j)) where the distributionwas moderate
4 Advances in Meteorology
35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies
were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country
36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
NDJFMAMJJASO
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFFM
MAAM
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFMAMJ
JASOND
SOON
NDDJ
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
MJJJ
JAAS
Regions
PCI v
alue
Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region
Advances in Meteorology 5
and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))
When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern
regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))
0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon
a b c d
e f
i j
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)
6 Advances in Meteorology
season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)
e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly
irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)
37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)
Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF
a b c d
e f
i j k l
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ
Advances in Meteorology 7
during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition
periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]
38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would
a b c
d e f
ig h
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
16ndash1812ndash14
gt20
N
S
W E200 100 0
km
200
Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011
8 Advances in Meteorology
have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover
same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)
a b c
d e f
ig h
N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
400 200 0
km
400
Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011
Advances in Meteorology 9
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
countries [14] 0e variation of precipitation distribution inBangladesh is a unique characteristic for climatic change Inthe Bay of Bengal the hydrological cycle is dominated byvery high spatial and temporal variability and predictionsfor the end of the 21st century show a high degree ofuncertainty [15] Due to the monsoon season pre-cipitation concentration increased dramatically while thatin the winter season decreased For the case of dynamiccombination generally Bangladesh faced extreme floodsand longer periods of droughts [5 16 17] 0e north-western part of the country drought is a common phe-nomenon and became a growing concern in the recentyears 0e report confirmed a precipitation decrease intropical areas and an increase in areas affected by droughtin tropical and subtropical areas since the 1970s [13]Several studies in the world indicate that global warminghas strong influence on precipitation variation as well asextreme weather events like floods droughts and thun-derstorms [18 19 20] Bangladesh is renowned foragricultural-based country where about 80 of people aredirectly or indirectly involved in agricultural activities astheir main profession [21] Precipitation and its intensityare important factors on the Bangladesh climate for ag-ricultural production [22] Due to global warming hy-drological changes are the most significant impacts ofclimate change in Bangladesh 0e study of precipitationconcentration intensity on seasonal variation is essentialfor agriculture disaster mitigation and water resourcesplanning and management in Bangladesh in the context ofglobal climatic change [23]
Although many studies in Bangladesh have consideredgeneral rainfall and temperature characteristics few havestudied the intensity and distribution of rainfall in thisregion [22] Furthermore most research has been per-formed on an annual or six months basis and smallertemporal-scale analyses are lacking Although there is nosingle research method that can comprehensively examinechanges in precipitation over time it is worth consideringhow different methods can be applied to certain situations[24] For example some studies have applied a pre-cipitation variability focus in regions influenced by extremeprecipitation events [25] Several straightforward in-dicators can be used to assess variability and analyze hy-drological processes [26] Among them the precipitationconcentration index (PCI) [27] is recommended since itprovides information on long-term total variability of therainfall amount [26 28 29] Iskander et al [22] used thePCI to show an irregular precipitation distribution acrossBangladesh especially in the southeast region and othertrend analysis studies have examined long-term changes inprecipitation over Bangladesh [30 31]
0is study analyzed the spatial and temporal pre-cipitation variability using the PCI calculated from denseprecipitation datasets collected by the Bangladesh Mete-orological Department (BMD) A geographic informa-tion system (GIS) was used for the development ofa regional variation map to which we applied the in-verse distance weighted method 0e PCI was calcu-lated for annual supraseasonal seasonal and three- and
two-month data over a period of 30 years (1980ndash2011)0is enabled decadal comparisons (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011) between four regions covering thewhole study area
2 Data and Methods
21 Study Area Bangladesh is a low-lying river-dominatedcountry consisting primarily of flat plains It occupies anarea of 147570 km2 and geographically extends from 20deg34primeN to 26deg38prime N and from 88deg01prime E to 92deg41prime E Most of thepopulation lives in rural areas and directly or indirectlydepends on agricultural activities A sub-tropical monsoonclimate is strongly active and the country is sometimesaffected by tropical cyclones [32] 0e country experiencesa vast amount of rainfall annually On average 78 ofrainfall in Bangladesh occurs during the monsoon and iscaused by weak tropical depressions that are carried from theBay of Bengal by wet monsoon winds [33 34] Precipitationconcentration varies within the country and the meanannual precipitation varies from a maximum of 5690mm inthe northeast to a minimum of 1110mm in the west [21]Bangladesh has 30 meteorological observatories (Figure 1)all of which were included in this study To better un-derstand rainfall variation the country was divided into fourregions north-northwest central east-southeast and south-southwest
22 Study Process In this study precipitation concentra-tion changes at different temporal intervals were comparedfor the four regions of Bangladesh Data were collectedfrom the BMD from 1980 to 2011 and used as the input datafor PCI analysis Dataset quality is an important indicatorfor obtaining good results and was carefully controlledbefore the data were released Generally all stations werefound to be homogeneous therefore the datasets fromeach station were included in this analysis First we per-formed a comparative correlation between the PCI valuesfor the two- and three-month temporal intervals to un-derstand specific variations 0en we defined uniformmoderate irregular and highly irregular precipitationdistributions and seasonal variations for specific regionsFor the spatial analysis of precipitation we interpolateddata from all weather stations onto a regular grid Finallywe analyzed the annual supraseasonal seasonal and three-and two-month PCI values using the KruskalndashWallis test toidentify statistical significance among the decades 0emajor objective of this research was to analyze rainfalltrend and irregular distribution over the study area atvarious temporal intervals
0e geographic information system (GIS) tools havebeen used for the PCI mapping Under the geostatisticalanalysis the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method wasconsidered in the study to interpolate the PCI data of thecountry In interpolation the power was considered as 2the searching neighborhood was standard the neigh-borhoods were at least 10 and neighbors to include was 15major semiaxis was 152 minor semiaxis was 152 and the
2 Advances in Meteorology
angle was 0 e inverse distance weighting (IDW) is anestablished deterministic method for the precipitationconcentration index mapping and one of the most fre-quently used deterministic models in spatial interpolation[35ndash37]
23 PCI Methods PCI is an indicator of rainfall con-centration and rainfall erosivity [28] e PCI values werecalculated on an annual scale for each grid point usingdata from all stations based on the equations of Oliver[27]
PCIannual sum12i1Pi
2
sum12i1Pi( )
2 lowast100 (1)
where Pi is the total precipitation in month i e PCI wasalso calculated on a supraseasonal scale (Equation (2))
from JanuaryndashJune (JJ) and JulyndashDecember (JD) andon a seasonal scale (Equation (3)) for the winter(NovemberndashFebruary NDJF) summer or premonsoon(MarchndashJune MAMJ) and monsoon (JulyndashOctoberJASO)
PCIsuprandashseasonal sum6i1Pi
2
sum6i1Pi( )
2 lowast50 (2)
PCIseasonal sum4i1Pi
2
sum4i1Pi( )
2 lowast333333 (3)
We also calculated the three- and two-month PCI in-tervals (Equations (4) and (5) respectively) to break downthe annual seasonal and supraseasonal precipitation dis-tribution and concentration
88deg30prime
25deg3
0prime24
deg0prime
22deg3
0prime21
deg0prime
90deg0prime 91deg30prime
Meteorological stationsCentral region (CR)Eastern region (ER)
Northern region (NR)Southern and western region (SWR)
Figure 1 Map of the study area
Advances in Meteorology 3
PCIthreeminusmonth interval 1113936
3i1Pi
2
11139363i1Pi1113872 1113873
2 lowast25 (4)
PCItwominusmonth interval 1113936
2i1Pi
2
11139362i1Pi1113872 1113873
2 lowast1667 (5)
As defined by Oliver [27] the PCI values of less than 10represent a uniform precipitation distribution (ie lowprecipitation concentration) the PCI values from 11 to 15denote a moderate precipitation concentration the valuesfrom 16 to 20 denote an irregular distribution and the valuesabove 20 represent strong irregularity (ie high pre-cipitation concentration) According to the analysis of thePCI formulae on annual seasonal and supraseasonal scalesa PCI value of less than 10 indicates perfect uniformity ofprecipitation distribution (ie the same or highly similaramounts of rainfall in each month) At all scales a PCI valueof 16ndash20 indicates that the total precipitation is concentratedin half of the period and a PCI value greater than 20 in-dicates that the total precipitation is concentrated in one-third of the period For example this last value indicates thatmost annual precipitation occurs within four months mostsupraseasonal precipitation occurs within two months andmost seasonal precipitation occurs within one month Inother words intensive rainfall is considered to be uniform ifit occurs throughout the time period but if it occurs withina narrow subset of the time period then its distribution isconsidered to be irregular
To investigate the temporal changes in PCI the PCIvalues were calculated for ten decadal subperiods 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 0e statistical significanceof the difference between decadal periods at each grid pointwas assessed using a trend test with different levels ofprobability categorized as follows exceptionally likely(plt 001) extremely likely (pgt 005) very likely (plt 010)and very low probability (pgt 010)
3 Results and Discussion
31 Annual PCI 0e annual PCI values were moderate withsome irregularities (Figure 2) During the six-month anal-ysis the JJ (JanuaryndashJune) period was very irregular whereasthe JD (JulyndashDecember) period showed a moderate pre-cipitation distribution A moderately irregular distributionwas observed when the four regions shared similar climaticconditions 0e distribution of the annual PCI varied fromlt14 in the northndasheast (along Sylhet Srimangal) to gt18 in thenorth and southndasheast (Figure 3(a)) near the Bay of Bengalwhere amoderate-to-irregular precipitation distribution wasobserved 0e western and central areas showed significantvariations and irregular distributions
32 Supraseasonal PCI 0e PCI on a supraseasonal scaledemonstrated a complex precipitation distribution acrossthe study area During the JJ period the PCI continued toshow moderate-to-high irregularities 0e northndashwest andsouthndashsoutheast areas had higher PCI values (gt20) 0e
central (excluding Dhaka) and west areas also showedcomparatively higher values while low but irregularly dis-tributed values were observed in the central to northndasheastregions (Figure 3(b)) During the summer (MAMJ) thecentral and western regions experienced strong stormslocally known as ldquoKalbaishakirdquo which are characterized byhigh rainfall and the potential for devastating damage Forthe JD period lower PCI values (lt14) were observed overmost of the study area except for a small region in thesouthndasheast near Coxrsquos Bazar (Figure 3(c)) and were char-acterized by a moderately irregular precipitationdistribution
33 Seasonal PCI 0ree distinct seasons are recognized inBangladesh the premonsoon or summer season (MAMJ) themonsoonrainy season (JASO) and the postmonsoon orwinter season (NDJF) [38] Normally the premonsoon andpostmonsoon seasons receive little rainfall On average 80or more of the countryrsquos annual rainfall occurs during themonsoon season For all regions the postmonsoonmonsoonseasons showed strongly irregularuniform precipitationdistributions (Figures 3(d) and 3(f)) Rainfall in Bangladeshduring the monsoon season is driven by tropical depressionsin the Bay of Bengal [33] 0ese monsoon depressions havea south-to-north trajectory with turns towards the northwestand west deflected by the Meghalaya Plateau Owing to theheight of this plateau uplifted moisture condenses leading toparticularly heavy rainfall over northwestern Bangladesh [33]A moderate precipitation distribution was most common inthe premonsoon season although the northndashwest andsouthndasheast areas showed comparatively higher values (gt12)than the west central and northeast areas (Figure 3(e))Temperature has a significant influence on rainfall duringsummer temperatures can reach 45degC or greater and inwinter they can fall to 5degC in some areas [21]
34 0ree-Month PCI 0e three-month PCI values werehighest in the north and southndasheast and lowest in the centraland northndasheast regions depending on the annual weatherconditions 0e JFM period showed irregular PCI values forall regions with higher values in the southndasheast than those inthe northndashwest (Figure 3(g)) 0e AMJ period showedmoderately uniform premonsoon PCI values (Figure 3(h))which is a period that normally experiences increasingrainfall from April to reach moderate levels during May andJune [39] Early rainfall during this period can sometimescause flooding 0e lowest PCI values during the JAS periodwere less than 10 (Figure 3(i)) and were characterized byuniform precipitation concentrations across the study areaMoreover the periods of JFM and OND showed strongirregularities in the PCI values corresponding to the dryseason [39] Overall the northndashwest area showed the highestPCI values (gt20) while the central south and east areas hadmoderate values and irregular distributions Comparativelylower values were observed in the southndasheast near theChittagong Hill Tracts (Figure 3(j)) where the distributionwas moderate
4 Advances in Meteorology
35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies
were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country
36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
NDJFMAMJJASO
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFFM
MAAM
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFMAMJ
JASOND
SOON
NDDJ
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
MJJJ
JAAS
Regions
PCI v
alue
Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region
Advances in Meteorology 5
and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))
When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern
regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))
0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon
a b c d
e f
i j
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)
6 Advances in Meteorology
season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)
e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly
irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)
37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)
Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF
a b c d
e f
i j k l
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ
Advances in Meteorology 7
during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition
periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]
38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would
a b c
d e f
ig h
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
16ndash1812ndash14
gt20
N
S
W E200 100 0
km
200
Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011
8 Advances in Meteorology
have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover
same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)
a b c
d e f
ig h
N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
400 200 0
km
400
Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011
Advances in Meteorology 9
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
angle was 0 e inverse distance weighting (IDW) is anestablished deterministic method for the precipitationconcentration index mapping and one of the most fre-quently used deterministic models in spatial interpolation[35ndash37]
23 PCI Methods PCI is an indicator of rainfall con-centration and rainfall erosivity [28] e PCI values werecalculated on an annual scale for each grid point usingdata from all stations based on the equations of Oliver[27]
PCIannual sum12i1Pi
2
sum12i1Pi( )
2 lowast100 (1)
where Pi is the total precipitation in month i e PCI wasalso calculated on a supraseasonal scale (Equation (2))
from JanuaryndashJune (JJ) and JulyndashDecember (JD) andon a seasonal scale (Equation (3)) for the winter(NovemberndashFebruary NDJF) summer or premonsoon(MarchndashJune MAMJ) and monsoon (JulyndashOctoberJASO)
PCIsuprandashseasonal sum6i1Pi
2
sum6i1Pi( )
2 lowast50 (2)
PCIseasonal sum4i1Pi
2
sum4i1Pi( )
2 lowast333333 (3)
We also calculated the three- and two-month PCI in-tervals (Equations (4) and (5) respectively) to break downthe annual seasonal and supraseasonal precipitation dis-tribution and concentration
88deg30prime
25deg3
0prime24
deg0prime
22deg3
0prime21
deg0prime
90deg0prime 91deg30prime
Meteorological stationsCentral region (CR)Eastern region (ER)
Northern region (NR)Southern and western region (SWR)
Figure 1 Map of the study area
Advances in Meteorology 3
PCIthreeminusmonth interval 1113936
3i1Pi
2
11139363i1Pi1113872 1113873
2 lowast25 (4)
PCItwominusmonth interval 1113936
2i1Pi
2
11139362i1Pi1113872 1113873
2 lowast1667 (5)
As defined by Oliver [27] the PCI values of less than 10represent a uniform precipitation distribution (ie lowprecipitation concentration) the PCI values from 11 to 15denote a moderate precipitation concentration the valuesfrom 16 to 20 denote an irregular distribution and the valuesabove 20 represent strong irregularity (ie high pre-cipitation concentration) According to the analysis of thePCI formulae on annual seasonal and supraseasonal scalesa PCI value of less than 10 indicates perfect uniformity ofprecipitation distribution (ie the same or highly similaramounts of rainfall in each month) At all scales a PCI valueof 16ndash20 indicates that the total precipitation is concentratedin half of the period and a PCI value greater than 20 in-dicates that the total precipitation is concentrated in one-third of the period For example this last value indicates thatmost annual precipitation occurs within four months mostsupraseasonal precipitation occurs within two months andmost seasonal precipitation occurs within one month Inother words intensive rainfall is considered to be uniform ifit occurs throughout the time period but if it occurs withina narrow subset of the time period then its distribution isconsidered to be irregular
To investigate the temporal changes in PCI the PCIvalues were calculated for ten decadal subperiods 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 0e statistical significanceof the difference between decadal periods at each grid pointwas assessed using a trend test with different levels ofprobability categorized as follows exceptionally likely(plt 001) extremely likely (pgt 005) very likely (plt 010)and very low probability (pgt 010)
3 Results and Discussion
31 Annual PCI 0e annual PCI values were moderate withsome irregularities (Figure 2) During the six-month anal-ysis the JJ (JanuaryndashJune) period was very irregular whereasthe JD (JulyndashDecember) period showed a moderate pre-cipitation distribution A moderately irregular distributionwas observed when the four regions shared similar climaticconditions 0e distribution of the annual PCI varied fromlt14 in the northndasheast (along Sylhet Srimangal) to gt18 in thenorth and southndasheast (Figure 3(a)) near the Bay of Bengalwhere amoderate-to-irregular precipitation distribution wasobserved 0e western and central areas showed significantvariations and irregular distributions
32 Supraseasonal PCI 0e PCI on a supraseasonal scaledemonstrated a complex precipitation distribution acrossthe study area During the JJ period the PCI continued toshow moderate-to-high irregularities 0e northndashwest andsouthndashsoutheast areas had higher PCI values (gt20) 0e
central (excluding Dhaka) and west areas also showedcomparatively higher values while low but irregularly dis-tributed values were observed in the central to northndasheastregions (Figure 3(b)) During the summer (MAMJ) thecentral and western regions experienced strong stormslocally known as ldquoKalbaishakirdquo which are characterized byhigh rainfall and the potential for devastating damage Forthe JD period lower PCI values (lt14) were observed overmost of the study area except for a small region in thesouthndasheast near Coxrsquos Bazar (Figure 3(c)) and were char-acterized by a moderately irregular precipitationdistribution
33 Seasonal PCI 0ree distinct seasons are recognized inBangladesh the premonsoon or summer season (MAMJ) themonsoonrainy season (JASO) and the postmonsoon orwinter season (NDJF) [38] Normally the premonsoon andpostmonsoon seasons receive little rainfall On average 80or more of the countryrsquos annual rainfall occurs during themonsoon season For all regions the postmonsoonmonsoonseasons showed strongly irregularuniform precipitationdistributions (Figures 3(d) and 3(f)) Rainfall in Bangladeshduring the monsoon season is driven by tropical depressionsin the Bay of Bengal [33] 0ese monsoon depressions havea south-to-north trajectory with turns towards the northwestand west deflected by the Meghalaya Plateau Owing to theheight of this plateau uplifted moisture condenses leading toparticularly heavy rainfall over northwestern Bangladesh [33]A moderate precipitation distribution was most common inthe premonsoon season although the northndashwest andsouthndasheast areas showed comparatively higher values (gt12)than the west central and northeast areas (Figure 3(e))Temperature has a significant influence on rainfall duringsummer temperatures can reach 45degC or greater and inwinter they can fall to 5degC in some areas [21]
34 0ree-Month PCI 0e three-month PCI values werehighest in the north and southndasheast and lowest in the centraland northndasheast regions depending on the annual weatherconditions 0e JFM period showed irregular PCI values forall regions with higher values in the southndasheast than those inthe northndashwest (Figure 3(g)) 0e AMJ period showedmoderately uniform premonsoon PCI values (Figure 3(h))which is a period that normally experiences increasingrainfall from April to reach moderate levels during May andJune [39] Early rainfall during this period can sometimescause flooding 0e lowest PCI values during the JAS periodwere less than 10 (Figure 3(i)) and were characterized byuniform precipitation concentrations across the study areaMoreover the periods of JFM and OND showed strongirregularities in the PCI values corresponding to the dryseason [39] Overall the northndashwest area showed the highestPCI values (gt20) while the central south and east areas hadmoderate values and irregular distributions Comparativelylower values were observed in the southndasheast near theChittagong Hill Tracts (Figure 3(j)) where the distributionwas moderate
4 Advances in Meteorology
35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies
were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country
36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
NDJFMAMJJASO
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFFM
MAAM
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFMAMJ
JASOND
SOON
NDDJ
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
MJJJ
JAAS
Regions
PCI v
alue
Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region
Advances in Meteorology 5
and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))
When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern
regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))
0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon
a b c d
e f
i j
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)
6 Advances in Meteorology
season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)
e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly
irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)
37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)
Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF
a b c d
e f
i j k l
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ
Advances in Meteorology 7
during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition
periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]
38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would
a b c
d e f
ig h
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
16ndash1812ndash14
gt20
N
S
W E200 100 0
km
200
Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011
8 Advances in Meteorology
have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover
same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)
a b c
d e f
ig h
N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
400 200 0
km
400
Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011
Advances in Meteorology 9
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
PCIthreeminusmonth interval 1113936
3i1Pi
2
11139363i1Pi1113872 1113873
2 lowast25 (4)
PCItwominusmonth interval 1113936
2i1Pi
2
11139362i1Pi1113872 1113873
2 lowast1667 (5)
As defined by Oliver [27] the PCI values of less than 10represent a uniform precipitation distribution (ie lowprecipitation concentration) the PCI values from 11 to 15denote a moderate precipitation concentration the valuesfrom 16 to 20 denote an irregular distribution and the valuesabove 20 represent strong irregularity (ie high pre-cipitation concentration) According to the analysis of thePCI formulae on annual seasonal and supraseasonal scalesa PCI value of less than 10 indicates perfect uniformity ofprecipitation distribution (ie the same or highly similaramounts of rainfall in each month) At all scales a PCI valueof 16ndash20 indicates that the total precipitation is concentratedin half of the period and a PCI value greater than 20 in-dicates that the total precipitation is concentrated in one-third of the period For example this last value indicates thatmost annual precipitation occurs within four months mostsupraseasonal precipitation occurs within two months andmost seasonal precipitation occurs within one month Inother words intensive rainfall is considered to be uniform ifit occurs throughout the time period but if it occurs withina narrow subset of the time period then its distribution isconsidered to be irregular
To investigate the temporal changes in PCI the PCIvalues were calculated for ten decadal subperiods 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 0e statistical significanceof the difference between decadal periods at each grid pointwas assessed using a trend test with different levels ofprobability categorized as follows exceptionally likely(plt 001) extremely likely (pgt 005) very likely (plt 010)and very low probability (pgt 010)
3 Results and Discussion
31 Annual PCI 0e annual PCI values were moderate withsome irregularities (Figure 2) During the six-month anal-ysis the JJ (JanuaryndashJune) period was very irregular whereasthe JD (JulyndashDecember) period showed a moderate pre-cipitation distribution A moderately irregular distributionwas observed when the four regions shared similar climaticconditions 0e distribution of the annual PCI varied fromlt14 in the northndasheast (along Sylhet Srimangal) to gt18 in thenorth and southndasheast (Figure 3(a)) near the Bay of Bengalwhere amoderate-to-irregular precipitation distribution wasobserved 0e western and central areas showed significantvariations and irregular distributions
32 Supraseasonal PCI 0e PCI on a supraseasonal scaledemonstrated a complex precipitation distribution acrossthe study area During the JJ period the PCI continued toshow moderate-to-high irregularities 0e northndashwest andsouthndashsoutheast areas had higher PCI values (gt20) 0e
central (excluding Dhaka) and west areas also showedcomparatively higher values while low but irregularly dis-tributed values were observed in the central to northndasheastregions (Figure 3(b)) During the summer (MAMJ) thecentral and western regions experienced strong stormslocally known as ldquoKalbaishakirdquo which are characterized byhigh rainfall and the potential for devastating damage Forthe JD period lower PCI values (lt14) were observed overmost of the study area except for a small region in thesouthndasheast near Coxrsquos Bazar (Figure 3(c)) and were char-acterized by a moderately irregular precipitationdistribution
33 Seasonal PCI 0ree distinct seasons are recognized inBangladesh the premonsoon or summer season (MAMJ) themonsoonrainy season (JASO) and the postmonsoon orwinter season (NDJF) [38] Normally the premonsoon andpostmonsoon seasons receive little rainfall On average 80or more of the countryrsquos annual rainfall occurs during themonsoon season For all regions the postmonsoonmonsoonseasons showed strongly irregularuniform precipitationdistributions (Figures 3(d) and 3(f)) Rainfall in Bangladeshduring the monsoon season is driven by tropical depressionsin the Bay of Bengal [33] 0ese monsoon depressions havea south-to-north trajectory with turns towards the northwestand west deflected by the Meghalaya Plateau Owing to theheight of this plateau uplifted moisture condenses leading toparticularly heavy rainfall over northwestern Bangladesh [33]A moderate precipitation distribution was most common inthe premonsoon season although the northndashwest andsouthndasheast areas showed comparatively higher values (gt12)than the west central and northeast areas (Figure 3(e))Temperature has a significant influence on rainfall duringsummer temperatures can reach 45degC or greater and inwinter they can fall to 5degC in some areas [21]
34 0ree-Month PCI 0e three-month PCI values werehighest in the north and southndasheast and lowest in the centraland northndasheast regions depending on the annual weatherconditions 0e JFM period showed irregular PCI values forall regions with higher values in the southndasheast than those inthe northndashwest (Figure 3(g)) 0e AMJ period showedmoderately uniform premonsoon PCI values (Figure 3(h))which is a period that normally experiences increasingrainfall from April to reach moderate levels during May andJune [39] Early rainfall during this period can sometimescause flooding 0e lowest PCI values during the JAS periodwere less than 10 (Figure 3(i)) and were characterized byuniform precipitation concentrations across the study areaMoreover the periods of JFM and OND showed strongirregularities in the PCI values corresponding to the dryseason [39] Overall the northndashwest area showed the highestPCI values (gt20) while the central south and east areas hadmoderate values and irregular distributions Comparativelylower values were observed in the southndasheast near theChittagong Hill Tracts (Figure 3(j)) where the distributionwas moderate
4 Advances in Meteorology
35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies
were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country
36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
NDJFMAMJJASO
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFFM
MAAM
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFMAMJ
JASOND
SOON
NDDJ
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
MJJJ
JAAS
Regions
PCI v
alue
Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region
Advances in Meteorology 5
and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))
When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern
regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))
0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon
a b c d
e f
i j
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)
6 Advances in Meteorology
season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)
e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly
irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)
37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)
Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF
a b c d
e f
i j k l
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ
Advances in Meteorology 7
during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition
periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]
38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would
a b c
d e f
ig h
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
16ndash1812ndash14
gt20
N
S
W E200 100 0
km
200
Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011
8 Advances in Meteorology
have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover
same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)
a b c
d e f
ig h
N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
400 200 0
km
400
Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011
Advances in Meteorology 9
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
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Marine BiologyJournal of
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BiodiversityInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
EcologyInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom
Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science
Volume 2018
Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Geophysics
Environmental and Public Health
Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
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Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
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35 Two-Month PCI 0e results from two-month dataanalysis showed relatively moderate-to-uniform pre-cipitation distributions and no strong irregularities for anyregion (Figure 2) Moderate rainfall was distributed rela-tively evenly in JF FM MA and AM and MJ JJ JA and ASwere especially uniform Meanwhile SO ON ND and DJhad moderate-to-irregular distributions 0e analysisshowed that rainfall concentrations were most heteroge-neous in nonrainfall seasons (JF FM MA AM ON andND) and in the transition period before and after themonsoon For all regions precipitation was most regularduring the monsoon season (Figures 4(e)ndash4(h)) For the JFperiod the south-southeast region showed a more mod-erate precipitation distribution than the northndashwest regionwhile the opposite was observed for the ON period (Fig-ures 4(a) and 4(j)) During the SO period some anomalies
were found in the northwestern central and southeasternareas (Figure 4(i)) 0ese are consistent areas of high al-titude where soil conditions and growth capabilities differfrom the rest of the country
36 Decadal Analysis of PCI 0e decadal analysis showedthat the annual PCI values varied over time and exhibitedan irregular distribution Significant changes in the PCIvalues between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999were found for the extreme northwestern and southeast-ern regions 0e west-central and northeastern regionshad similar values but from 1990 to 1999 the centralregion changed significantly From 2000 to 2011 the PCIchanged significantly with the northwestern and south-eastern regions displaying irregularities while the central
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
NDJFMAMJJASO
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
Annual6 month_JJ6 month_JD
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFFM
MAAM
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
JFMAMJ
JASOND
SOON
NDDJ
BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0BD NNWR CR ESER SSWR
25
20
15
10
5
0
MJJJ
JAAS
Regions
PCI v
alue
Figure 2 Mean PCI values during 1980ndash2011 BD Bangladesh NNWR north-northwest region CR central region ESER east-southeastregion SSWR south-southwest region
Advances in Meteorology 5
and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))
When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern
regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))
0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon
a b c d
e f
i j
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)
6 Advances in Meteorology
season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)
e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly
irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)
37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)
Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF
a b c d
e f
i j k l
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ
Advances in Meteorology 7
during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition
periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]
38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would
a b c
d e f
ig h
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
16ndash1812ndash14
gt20
N
S
W E200 100 0
km
200
Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011
8 Advances in Meteorology
have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover
same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)
a b c
d e f
ig h
N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
400 200 0
km
400
Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011
Advances in Meteorology 9
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
and northeastern regions showed irregular distributions(Figures 4(a)ndash4(c))
When analyzed on a six months basis the PCI values ofthe JJ period for the decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and2000ndash2011 showed significant irregularities High pre-cipitation concentrations occurred in the north-northwestand south-southeast regions but the precipitation distri-bution was irregular from the central to northeast regions(Figures 4(d)ndash4(f )) 0is coincided with the spring and hotseason where precipitation was more irregularly distributedFor the six-month period of JD a moderate precipitationdistribution was observed Only the northern and eastern
regions had PCI values that fell within the irregular dis-tribution class (Figures 4(g)ndash4(i))
0e PCI calculated on a seasonal scale varied acrossthe study area from values of less than 10 to more than20 During winter (NDJF) strong irregularities occurredin all decades (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)while irregular distributions occurred in the southndashwestand northndasheast regions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999(Figures 5(a)ndash5(c)) In summer (MAMJ) the PCI valuesshowed a moderate precipitation distribution with thenorthndashwest and south to southndasheast regions showing a highlymoderate distribution (Figures 5(d)ndash5(f)) 0e monsoon
a b c d
e f
i j
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 3 (a) Annual (b c) supraseasonal (b JJ c JD) (dndashf) seasonal (dNDJF e MAMJ f JASO) (gndashj) threemonths (g JFM h AMJi JAS j OND)
6 Advances in Meteorology
season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)
e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly
irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)
37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)
Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF
a b c d
e f
i j k l
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ
Advances in Meteorology 7
during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition
periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]
38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would
a b c
d e f
ig h
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
16ndash1812ndash14
gt20
N
S
W E200 100 0
km
200
Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011
8 Advances in Meteorology
have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover
same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)
a b c
d e f
ig h
N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
400 200 0
km
400
Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011
Advances in Meteorology 9
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
season (JASO) when precipitation was generally more uni-formly distributed had lower PCI values (Figures 5(g)ndash5(i))However during the monsoon extensive rainfall increasesthe incidence of devastating natural disasters (eg oods)
e PCI values calculated on a three month scaleshowed complex distributions JFM had moderate andirregular distributions during 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999but irregular and strongly irregular values during 2000ndash2011 (Figures 6(a)ndash6(c)) During the AMJ period whichgenerally exhibited a moderate distribution only thenorthndasheast region showed a uniform distribution (Fig-ures 6(d)ndash6(f )) A uniform precipitation distribution wasobserved for the JAS period although some changes wereobserved in the southndasheast region (Figures 6(g)ndash6(i)) elower PCI values were common during this time reect theinuence of monsoons e most irregular and strongly
irregular distributions were observed in the OND periodwhich was inuenced by winter weather e OND periodshowed the strongest irregularities in precipitation dis-tribution during 2000ndash2011 (Figure 6)
37 Signi13cant Dierences in Regional PCI We observeddierences in the mean annual precipitation among the fourregions e decadal analysis revealed a signicant dier-entiation during the decades of 1980ndash1989 and 1990ndash1999while 2000ndash2011 showed no signicant dierences (Table 1)For the supraseasonal analysis signicant dierentiationwas observed during 1990ndash1999 for the JJ period and during2000ndash2011 for JD period (Figures 7 and 8)
Dierentiation was observed for MAMJ in all decadesexcept 2000ndash2011 Dierentiation was observed for NDJF
a b c d
e f
i j k l
g h
400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
Figure 4 Mean two-month PCI during (a) JF (b) FM (c) MA (d) AM (e) MJ (f ) JJ (g) JA (h) AS (i) SO (j) ON (k) ND (l) DJ
Advances in Meteorology 7
during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition
periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]
38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would
a b c
d e f
ig h
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
16ndash1812ndash14
gt20
N
S
W E200 100 0
km
200
Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011
8 Advances in Meteorology
have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover
same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)
a b c
d e f
ig h
N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
400 200 0
km
400
Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011
Advances in Meteorology 9
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
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ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
during 1990ndash1999 and for JASO during 2000ndash2011 ethree month PCI showed dierences in mean pre-cipitation concentrations for most decades although forthe monsoon period (JAS) we observed no dierentia-tions in mean precipitation concentration across thecountry For most decades the three month PCI valuesshowed variations in precipitation concentration with theexception of JFM and JAS during 1990ndash1999 and 1980ndash1989 e two month PCI values showed that precipita-tion variation mostly occurred during seasonal transition
periods Precipitation concentration changes were lowerfrom 2000 to 2011 than in the earlier decades Most cli-mate research has suggested that annual rainfall will in-crease and winter rainfall will decrease in South Asiaowing to global climate change [40 41]
38 Trend of PCI over the Period of 1980ndash2011 in BangladeshVarious studies have indicated due to climate change rainfallpattern in Bangladesh is most likely to change which would
a b c
d e f
ig h
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
16ndash1812ndash14
gt20
N
S
W E200 100 0
km
200
Figure 5 Decadal analysis of annual PCI for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 (c) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 (f ) 2000ndash2011 Six-month PCI of JD for (g) 980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 (i) 2000ndash2011
8 Advances in Meteorology
have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover
same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)
a b c
d e f
ig h
N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
400 200 0
km
400
Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011
Advances in Meteorology 9
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
have adverse impacts on lives and livelihoods of millions ofpeople [4] A positive trend in annual rainfall and negativetrend in winter rainfall (Figures 9 and 10) means that therainfall of Bangladesh is concentrating in the monsoon andpremonsoon months [5] e annual trend of PCI has in-creased by maximum in majority of the stations for most ofthe periods whereas the SupraSeasonal PCI of JulyndashDecemberhas decreased in two third of the stations (Table 2) Moreover
same conditions were found during Monsoon periods Anegative trend of PCI means concentration of rainfall duringmonsoon in some parts of Bangladesh is increasing ere-fore this indicates that the irregularities of Rainfall duringMonsoon Season (June- September) are less During WinterSeason (NovemberndashFebruary) a positive trend of PCI valuesare evident erefore this indicates that the irregularities ofRainfall during Winter Season are high (Figure 11)
a b c
d e f
ig h
N
S
W Elt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18
gt20
400 200 0
km
400
Figure 6 Decadal analysis of seasonal PCI of NDJF for (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 MAMJ for (d) 1980ndash1989 (e)1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JASO for (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011
Advances in Meteorology 9
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
39 Implications of Variation of PCI in BangladeshRainfall variability in space and time is one of the mostrelevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh wherehydrological disaster is a common phenomenon [5] evolume timeliness distribution and duration of rainfall
in each season are major concerns to farmers Most of thepeople in our country area depend on crop and livestockproduction for livelihood and household incomes [42]Rainfall-related hazards and disasters (like drought andood) require farmers to implement measures in altering
Table 1 e regional dierences in the mean PCI using the KruskalndashWallis test during 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 inBangladesh
Timescaleap value
Mean 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 2000ndash2011PCI annual 0036lowast 0031lowast 0021lowast 0097Supraseasonal (JJ) 0061 0063 0004lowast 0219Supraseasonal (JD) 0063 0092 0089 0018lowastNDJF 0333 0227 002lowast 0105MAMJ 0015lowast 0012lowast 0003lowast 0091JASO 0237 0216 0159 0034lowastJFM 0011lowast 0024lowast 0068 0014lowastAMJ 0014lowast 0011lowast 0005lowast 0026lowastJAS 0455 0204 0033lowast 019OND 0003lowast 0005lowast 0068lowast 0001lowastJF 0011 0227 0107 0028FM 0125 0332 0773 005lowastMA 0026lowast 0018lowast 0028lowast 0028lowastAM 0025lowast 0003lowast 0024lowast 0018lowastMJ 0051lowast 0067lowast 0005lowast 0192JJ 0508 0032lowast 0642 0371JA 0394 0424 0023lowast 0235AS 0368 0361 0199 0114SO 0027lowast 0344 0026lowast 0052lowastON 0005lowast 0009lowast 0062lowast 0001lowastND 0362 0611 0607 0477DJ 0135 0497 039 039aLetters denote the months of the year (eg JJ is JanuaryndashJune and JD is JulyndashDecember) lowastInnity of number
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
Figure 7 Decadal analysis of the three-month PCI for JFM during (a) 1980ndash1989 (b) 1990ndash1990 and (c) 2000ndash2011 AMJ during (d)1980ndash1989 (e) 1990ndash1990 and (f) 2000ndash2011 JAS during (g) 1980ndash1989 (h) 1990ndash1990 and (i) 2000ndash2011 OND during (j) 1980ndash1989 (k)1990ndash1990 and (l) 2000ndash2011
10 Advances in Meteorology
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
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ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science
Volume 2018
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The Scientific World Journal
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Geological ResearchJournal of
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
a b c d e f
g h i j k l
m n o p q r
s t u v w x
y z A B C D
E F G H I K
lt10
14ndash16
10ndash12
18ndash20
12ndash14 16ndash18 400 200 0
km
400N
S
W Egt20
Figure 8 Decadal analysis of the two-month PCI (a b c) JF (d e f ) FM (g h i) MA (j k l) AM (m n o)MJ (p q r) JJ (s t u) JA (v w x)AS (y z A) SO (B C D) ON (E F G) ND (H I J) DJ for the representative decades 1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011 overBangladesh
Advances in Meteorology 11
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
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Volume 2018
Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of
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Geological ResearchJournal of
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Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
300250200150100050000
ndash050ndash100ndash150ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JF
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300FM
200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
ndash200
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MA200
150
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
AM
100
050
000
ndash050
ndash100
ndash150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
MJ060
040
020
000
ndash020
ndash040
ndash060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
JJ
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Continued
12 Advances in Meteorology
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
the cropping system planting or sowing times crop va-rieties and change crop types in the country [43] ePCI can be used as an indicator of hydrological haz-ard risks such as oods and droughts [44] PCI can helpquantifying the relative distribution of the rainfall pat-terns [28]
4 Conclusion
Bangladesh experiences a monsoon climate and has a ood-plain topography making it prone to hydrological disas-ters In this study we considered the rainfall distributionover dierent spatial and temporal scales from 1989 to 2011
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash060
ndash040
ndash020
000
020
040
060
080
ndash100
ndash080
ndash040
040
ndash020
020
000
ndash060
060
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
ndash050
ndash050
ndash100
ndash100
ndash150
ndash150
ndash200
ndash200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000ndash050
050
ndash100
100
ndash150
150
ndash200
200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
000
ndash100
100
ndash200
ndash300
200
300
400DJND
SO ON
ASJA
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 9 Two-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999and series 3 2000ndash2011)
Advances in Meteorology 13
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
e results showed that precipitation is the most uniformduring the monsoon season For all regions the annual PCIvalues were moderate and irregular and the six-month(JJ and JD) PCI values were irregular to moderate Forthe seasonal and three-month analyses the values weregenerally moderately irregular Finally for shorter two-month intervals (MJ JJ JA and AS) most PCI values
showed a uniform precipitation distribution In general thenorthwestern and southeastern areas of Bangladesh showedthe highest PCI values reecting an irregular precipitationdistribution e results showed that the rainfall in Ban-gladesh is moderately seasonal with an intensity increas-ing from the premonsoon to the monsoon season drivenby weak tropical depressions from the Bay of Bengal Most
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200250
A
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash500
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
3006_JJ
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200ndash150ndash100ndash050
000050100150200
ndash250
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash200
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150
Bogr
aD
inajp
urIs
hurd
iRa
jshah
iRa
ngpu
rBa
risal
Bhol
aH
atiy
aJe
ssor
eKe
pupa
raK
huln
aM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Cox
rsquos Ba
zar
Khu
tubd
iaRa
ngam
ati
Sith
akun
duSr
imon
gal
Sylh
etTe
knaf
ndash600
ndash400
ndash200
000
200
400
600
6_JD NDJF
MAMJ JASO
1980ndash19891990ndash19992000ndash2011
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Figure 10 Annual to seasonal PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
14 Advances in Meteorology
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
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Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
Tabl
e2
PCItrendover
theperiod
of1980ndash2
011
Station
Ann
ual
6mon
th_JJ
6mon
th_JD
NDJF
MAMJ
JASO
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
JFFM
MA
AM
MJ
JJJA
As
SOON
ND
DJ
Bogra
003
001
minus001
016
000
002
005
000
001
009
010
006
001minus0
04
001
000
001
000
000
000
006
010
Dinajpu
rminus0
05minus0
01
minus002
021minus0
02minus0
02
010minus0
02
000
010
001
003
001minus0
06minus0
01minus0
05
000
001
000
001minus0
03
004
Ishu
rdi
006
002
002
025
000
001
012
001
000
008
005
006
000minus0
05
002
000minus0
01
000
003
006
003
008
Rajsh
ahi
004
005
004
040
001
001
016
000
001
011
013
007
003
000minus0
03
000
001minus0
03
002
005
006
009
Rang
pur
minus005minus0
07
minus004
016minus0
06minus0
04
011minus0
05
001
004
002
009minus0
02minus0
05minus0
02minus0
03
001
003minus0
07
001
003
004
Barisal
006
011
minus001
005
006minus0
02
012
006
000
013
008
003minus0
04
000
002
001
000minus0
01
001
003
004
012
Bhola
007
010
minus001
020
004minus0
02
010
002
001
013
002
008minus0
06
005minus0
02
002
002minus0
01minus0
04
006
008
000
Hatiya
003
013
minus003
002
009minus0
03
009
004minus0
01
019
002
001minus0
03
007minus0
02
000
001minus0
01minus0
05
008
009
015
Jessore
007
006
001
006
001minus0
01
005
000
000minus0
02minus0
03
003minus0
03minus0
01minus0
02
001
001minus0
04
002
000minus0
02
008
Kepup
ara
001
004
minus006
010
003minus0
05
014
001minus0
02
016minus0
04
021
009
005minus0
02
003
000minus0
03minus0
05
004
012
012
Khu
lna
005
010
minus003
021
005minus0
04
012
002minus0
03
012
005
007minus0
07
003minus0
02
000minus0
01minus0
04
004
003
007
010
MC
ourt
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Ppatuakh
ali
009
010
minus001
023
008minus0
02
020
005
001
015
002
014minus0
02
004minus0
01
004
002minus0
01minus0
07
006
008
008
Sand
wip
005
010
minus004
004
006minus0
03
024
004minus0
02
011
004
011minus0
02
011minus0
05minus0
01minus0
01
000minus0
04
004
000
004
Satkhira
004
013
minus001
006
005minus0
02
024
003minus0
01
004
006
010minus0
01
003
001
000
001
000minus0
03
002
012
009
Chand
pur
003
010
minus003
021
007
001
006
005
001
006
004
003minus0
02
005
001
004
001minus0
01
000
000
004
008
Com
illa
010
013
001
006
008
000
007
005
002
009
004
000minus0
02
005
002
003
001
000minus0
07
008
010
009
Dhaka
010
012
004
004
008
002
012
006
002
012minus0
08
004
001
003
002
000minus0
03
002minus0
01
006
013
014
Faridp
ur014
022
008
001
016
003
015
012
003
013minus0
03
012
012
003
006
001
001
000
000
006
000
001
Madaripur
minus003
016
minus010
007
009minus0
07
008
006minus0
01
011
000
002
007
003
000minus0
01minus0
01minus0
03minus0
07
002
015
007
Mmym
ensin
gh002
001
003
008minus0
01
001
006
000
000
006
002minus0
01
002minus0
03
000minus0
02minus0
02
000
002
002
002
012
Tang
ail
009
010
006
030
006
003
013
005
002
016
002
011
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
006
004
015
Chitta
gong
001
009
minus013
006
005minus0
09
010
002minus0
06minus0
01
002
008
005
004minus0
03
003minus0
03
000
000
000
000
003
coxrsquosCoxrsquosbB
Bazarminus0
03minus0
12
minus004
002minus0
09minus0
05
009minus0
09minus0
02
011minus0
04
011
000
006minus0
09
001minus0
01minus0
03minus0
05
006
003
011
Khu
tubd
iaminus0
03minus0
01
minus013
009minus0
01minus0
11
009minus0
02minus0
07
025
002
008minus0
02
010minus0
06
002minus0
04minus0
05minus0
04
014
004
011
Rang
amati
013
030
minus001
003
018minus0
02
009
011minus0
01
008minus0
07
013
004
006
003
002
000minus0
01minus0
01
008
003
000
Sithakun
du006
009
minus001minus0
01
004minus0
02
012
000minus0
03
013
009
008
001
002minus0
04
001minus0
03
000minus0
03
007
000
002
Srim
ongal
001
004
000
022
003minus0
01
010
002
001
012
002
005minus0
05
004minus0
02
000
000
001minus0
05
004
010
011
Sylhet
003
004
001
028
002
001
012
002
000
011
005
006
000
001minus0
01
000
000
000minus0
05
000minus0
05
018
Tekn
af009
009
006
027
005
003
014
005
002
015
001
010
001
003
000
001minus0
01
001
000
005
004
015
Advances in Meteorology 15
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Journal of
ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Marine BiologyJournal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
BiodiversityInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
EcologyInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom
Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science
Volume 2018
Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Geophysics
Environmental and Public Health
Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Microbiology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Public Health Advances in
AgricultureAdvances in
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Agronomy
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
MeteorologyAdvances in
Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom
The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
ChemistryAdvances in
ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Geological ResearchJournal of
Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
premonsoon rainfall occurs in the central and western re-gions where agricultural production is extensive e de-cadal analysis (1980ndash1989 1990ndash1999 and 2000ndash2011)showed that the annual PCI values have varied over time andexhibited irregular distributions e northndashwest andsouthndasheast regions had strong irregularities during 2000ndash2011 while the shorter JJ and JD six-month periods showedsignicant and moderate irregularities respectively eseasonal analysis showed that the JASO period exhibiteda uniform subtropical monsoon climate therefore thethree-month JAS period also showed a uniform distributione two-month PCI analyses indicated that precipitationvariation was mostly found in seasonal transition periodsFor short time periods precipitation was strongly linked toseason Short-term variations also increased during thedecade 2000ndash2011 during which the OND period saw themost irregular precipitation distribution
Data Availability
e data used to support the ndings of this study areavailable from the corresponding author upon request
Conflicts of Interest
e authors declare that there are no conicts of interestregarding the publication of this paper
Authorsrsquo Contributions
Md Anarul Haque Mondol and Al-Mamun designed theresearch idea analyzed the data and wrote the manu-script Mehedi Iqbal contributed for critical evaluationof the manuscript Dong-Ho Jang revised the manu-script critically and provided important intellectualcontent
Acknowledgments
is work was supported by the Ministry of Education ofthe Republic of Korea and the National Research Founda-tion of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2924243) e authors aregrateful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)for providing the rainfall data
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash120ndash100ndash080ndash060ndash040ndash020
000020040060080100
Series 1Series 2Series 3
JAS
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
Series 1Series 2Series 3
OND
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash400
ndash300
ndash200
ndash100
000
100
200
300
400JFM
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Bogr
aD
inaj
pur
Ishu
rdi
Rajsh
ahi
Rang
pur
Baris
alBh
ola
Hat
iya
Jess
ore
Kepu
para
Khul
naM
Cou
rtPa
tuak
hali
Sand
wip
Satk
hira
Chan
dpur
Com
illa
Dha
kaFa
ridpu
rM
adar
ipur
Mym
ensin
ghTa
ngai
lCh
ittag
ong
Coxrsquo
s Baz
arKh
utub
dia
Rang
amat
iSi
thak
undu
Srim
onga
lSy
lhet
Tekn
af
ndash150
ndash100
ndash050
000
050
100
150AMJ
Figure 11 ree-month PCI changes in dierent periods from long-term mean PCI (1980ndash2011) (series 1 1980ndash1989 series 2 1990ndash1999 and series 3 2000ndash2011)
16 Advances in Meteorology
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Journal of
ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Marine BiologyJournal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
BiodiversityInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
EcologyInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom
Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science
Volume 2018
Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Geophysics
Environmental and Public Health
Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Microbiology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Public Health Advances in
AgricultureAdvances in
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Agronomy
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
MeteorologyAdvances in
Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom
The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
ChemistryAdvances in
ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Geological ResearchJournal of
Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
References
[1] F Lambert P Stott and M Allen Detection and Attributionof Changes in Global Terrestrial Precipitation EGS-AGU-EUGJoint Assembly Nice France 2003
[2] M H I Dore ldquoClimatic change and chaenges in globalprecipitation patterns what do we knowrdquo EnvironmentalInternational vol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005
[3] M Gemmer S Becker and T Jiang ldquoObserved monthlyprecipitation trends in China 1951ndash2002rdquo 0eoretical andApplied Climatology vol 77 pp 39ndash45 2004
[4] Z Hasan S Akhter and M Islam ldquoClimate changeand trend of rainfall in the South-East part of coastalBangladeshrdquo European Scientific Journal vol 10 no 2pp 25ndash39 2014
[5] S Shahid and S K Osman ldquoSpatio-temporal variability ofrainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969ndash2003rdquoAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science vol 45 no 3pp 375ndash389 2009
[6] M R Allen and W J Ingram ldquoConstructions on futurechanges in climate and the hydrological cyclerdquo Naturevol 419 no 6903 pp 224ndash232 2002
[7] H Le Treut R Someville U Cubasch et al ldquoHistoricaloverview of climate changerdquo in International climate changeClimate Change 2007 0e Physical Science Basis Contributionof Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S SolmonD Qin M Manning et al Eds Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA 2007
[8] G Scholz J N Quinton and P Strauss ldquoSoil erosion fromsugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate changeinduced seasonal precipitation variationsrdquo Catena vol 72no 1 pp 91ndash105 2008
[9] R Coscarelli and T Caloiero ldquoAnalysis of daily and monthlyrainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region)rdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 416 no 417 pp 145ndash156 2012
[10] E Aguado D Cayan L Riddle and M Roos ldquoClimaticfluctuations and the timing of west coast streamflowrdquo Journalof Climate vol 5 no 12 pp 1468ndash1483 1992
[11] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano L Gimeno andR Nieto ldquoStability of the seasonal distribution of precipitationin the Mediterranean region observations since 1950 andprojections for the 21st centuryrdquoGeophysical Research Lettersvol 36 no 10 2009
[12] M N Islam T Hayashi T Terao H Uyeda and K KikuchildquoCharacteristics of precipitation systems analyzed from radardata over Bangladeshrdquo Journal of Natural Disaster Sciencevol 27 no 1 pp 17ndash23 2005
[13] K E Trenberth P D Jones P Ambenje et al ldquoObservationssurface and atmosphericrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0ePhysical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solmon D Qin M Manning et al EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK and New YorkUSA 2007
[14] B Roy S Akter L Brander et al ldquoSocioeconomic vulnera-bility and adaptation to environmental risk a case study ofclimate change and flooding in Bangladeshrdquo Risk Analysisvol 27 no 2 pp 313ndash326 2007
[15] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 0e Physical ScienceBasis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds
Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdomand New York USA 2007
[16] A S M S Ahmed and S Karmakar ldquoArrival and withdrawaldates of the summer monsoon in Bangladeshrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 13 no 7 pp 727ndash740 1993
[17] M R Rahman M Salehin and J Matsumoto ldquoTrends ofmonsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladeshrdquo Bangladesh Journalof Water Resources vol 14 no 18 pp 121ndash138 1997
[18] K R Briffa G vander Schrier and P D Jones ldquoWet and drysummers in Europe since 1750 evidence of increasingdroughtrdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 29 no 13pp 1894ndash1905 2009
[19] J Schmidli and C Frei ldquoTrends of heavy precipitation and wetand dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th centuryrdquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 6 pp 277ndash287 2005
[20] Q Zhang C-Y Xu and Z Zhang ldquoObserved changes ofdroughtwetness episodes in the Pearl River basin Chinausing the standardized precipitation index and aridity indexrdquo0eoretical and Applied Climatology vol 98 no 1-2pp 89ndash99 2009
[21] Asiatic Society of Bangladesh Banglapedia National Enclo-paedia of Bangladesh Asiatic Society of Bangladesh DhakaBangladesh 2003
[22] S Shahid ldquoRainfall variability and the tends of wet and dryperiods in Bangladeshrdquo International Journal of Climatologyvol 30 no 15 pp 2299ndash2313 2010
[23] M Rafiuddin H Uyeda and M N Islam ldquoCharacteristics ofmonsoon precipitation systems in and around BangladeshrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 7pp 1042ndash1055 2010
[24] M W Rand ldquoObjective criteria for the evaluation of clus-tering methodsrdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation vol 66 pp 846ndash850 2012
[25] T R Karl and R W Knight ldquoSecular trends of precipitationamount frequency and intensity in the United StatesrdquoBulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol 79 no 2pp 231ndash241 1998
[26] M De Luis J C Gonzalez-Hidalgo M Brunetti andL A Longares ldquoPrecipitation concentration changes in Spain1946ndash2005rdquo Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciencesvol 11 no 5 pp 1259ndash1265 2011
[27] J E Oliver ldquoMonthly precipitation distributionndash a compar-ative indexrdquo Professional Geographer vol 32 no 3pp 300ndash309 1980
[28] P Michiels D Gabriels and R Hartmann ldquoUsing the sea-sonal and temporal precipitation concentration index forcharacterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in SpainrdquoCatena vol 19 no 1 pp 43ndash58 1992
[29] H Apaydin G Erpul I Bayranmin and D GabrielsldquoEvaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution andconcentration of precipitation a case for the region ofSoutheastern Anatolia Project Turkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 328 no 3-4 pp 726ndash732 2006
[30] M K Ahmed M S Alam A H M Yousuf and M M IslamldquoA long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regionsof Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Ninosouthernoscillation and Indian Ocean dipolerdquo0eoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 129 no 1-2 pp 473ndash486 2017
[31] K Burkart and P Kinney ldquoIs precipitation a predictor ofmortality in Bangladesh A multi-stratified analysis in a SouthAsian monsoon climaterdquo Science of the Total Environmentvol 553 pp 458ndash465 2016
[32] K M Krishna ldquoIntensifying tropical cyclones over theNorth Indian Ocean during summer monsoonmdashGlobal
Advances in Meteorology 17
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Journal of
ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Marine BiologyJournal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
BiodiversityInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
EcologyInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom
Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science
Volume 2018
Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Geophysics
Environmental and Public Health
Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Microbiology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Public Health Advances in
AgricultureAdvances in
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Agronomy
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
MeteorologyAdvances in
Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom
The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
ChemistryAdvances in
ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Geological ResearchJournal of
Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
warmingrdquo Global Planetary Change vol 65 no 1-2pp 12ndash16 2009
[33] A S M S Ahmed and I K Kim ldquoPatterns of daily rainfall inBangladesh during the summer monsoon season case studiesat three stationsrdquo Physical Geography vol 24 pp 295ndash3182003
[34] M N Islam T Terao H Uyeda T Hayashi and K KikuchildquoSpatial and temporal variations of precipitation in andaround Bangladeshrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan vol 83 no 1 pp 21ndash39 2005
[35] B Andrews Tools and Techniques for Spatial Analysis andVisualization of Estuarine Benthic Mapping Data Retrievedfrom Papers 2003
[36] S Ly C Charles and A Degre ldquoGeostatistical interpolationof daily rainfall at catchment scale the use of several vario-gram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Bel-giumrdquo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences vol 15 no 7pp 2259ndash2274 2011
[37] V Stefanescu S Stefan and F Georgescu ldquoSpatial distri-bution of heavy precipitation events in Romania between 1980and 2009rdquo Metrological Applications vol 21 no 2pp 684ndash694 2014
[38] H E Rashid Geography of Bangladesh University Press LtdBangladesh 1991
[39] M A H Mondol M Iqbal Al-Mamun and J Dong-HoldquoSeasonality analysis on high and low rainfall regions inBangladesh using precipitation concentration indexrdquo Journalof Climate Research vol 12 no 2 pp 215ndash226 2017
[40] J F Jouzel V Kattsov U Lohmann et al ldquoTechnical sum-maryrdquo in Climate Change 2007 0e Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group 1 to the Forth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeS Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[41] IPCC ldquoClimate change 2007 impacts adaptation and vul-nerabilityrdquo in Contribution ofWorking Group 11 to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange M L Parry O F Canziani J P PalutikofP J Van der Linden and C E Hanson Eds CambridgeUniversity Press Cambridge UK 2007
[42] M M G Alam K Alam S Mushtaq and W L Filho ldquoHowdo climate change and associated hazards impact on theresilience of riparian rural communities in Bangladesh Policyimplications for livelihood developmentrdquo EnvironmentalScience and Policy vol 84 no 7 pp 7ndash18 2018
[43] F Ndamani and T Watanabe ldquoInfluences of rainfall on cropproduction and suggestions for adaptationrdquo InternationalJournal of agricultural Sciences vol 5 no 1 pp 2167ndash21802015
[44] M Gocic S Shamshirband Z Razak D Petkovic S Ch andS Trajkovic ldquoLong-term precipitation analysis and estimationof precipitation concentration index using three supportvector machine methodsrdquo Advances inMeteorology vol 2016Article ID 7912357 11 pages 2016
18 Advances in Meteorology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Journal of
ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Marine BiologyJournal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
BiodiversityInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
EcologyInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom
Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science
Volume 2018
Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Geophysics
Environmental and Public Health
Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Microbiology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Public Health Advances in
AgricultureAdvances in
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Agronomy
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
MeteorologyAdvances in
Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom
The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
ChemistryAdvances in
ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Geological ResearchJournal of
Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Journal of
ChemistryArchaeaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Marine BiologyJournal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
BiodiversityInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
EcologyInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom
Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science
Volume 2018
Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Geophysics
Environmental and Public Health
Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Microbiology
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Public Health Advances in
AgricultureAdvances in
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Agronomy
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
International Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
MeteorologyAdvances in
Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom
The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2018Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
ChemistryAdvances in
ScienticaHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Geological ResearchJournal of
Analytical ChemistryInternational Journal of
Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018
Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom