pre-2020 expectations: bali road map 2012 ecbi oxford seminar summary of fellows’ colloquium
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ecbi. Pre-2020 Expectations: Bali Road Map 2012 ecbi Oxford Seminar Summary of Fellows’ Colloquium. european capacity building initiative initiative européenne de renforcement des capacités. for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
european capacity building initiative ecbiPre-2020 Expectations: Bali Road Map
2012 ecbi Oxford Seminar
Summary of Fellows’ Colloquium
european capacity building initiativeinitiative européenne de renforcem
ent des capacités ecbi
for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiationspour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales sur les changements climatiques
european capacity building initiative ecbi
What is necessary to implement the Outcomes of the AWG-LCA and the AWG-KP? AWG-LCA (pre-2020)• 1.b.i : tons of reduction, what is the role of IAR in fulfilment
of those numbers?• 1.b.ii common reporting format for support?• Finance: scaling up of financial flows, MRV of support• Adaptation: Finalising the linkages between the (new)
institutional arrangements• Loss and Damage: What shape of outcome? What next after
the Report?• Technology: How to deal with IPR (pre 2020)?
Implementation of Bali Roadmap
european capacity building initiative ecbi
AWG-KP (post-2012)• EU QELRO: Is it 30%? If not, why not?• Surplus Assigned Amount Units: What to do?• Duration of 2CP• Midterm Review: Legal implications?• Entry into force provisions: Time-scale? Role of
Provisional Application etc.?• Eligibility to participate in KP mechanisms
How do we get there (in Bangkok)?What to do if we don’t?
Implementation of Bali Roadmap
european capacity building initiative ecbiPost-2020 Ideas for the ADP
2012 ecbi Oxford Seminar
Summary of Fellows’ Colloquium
european capacity building initiativeinitiative européenne de renforcem
ent des capacités ecbi
for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiationspour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales sur les changements climatiques
european capacity building initiative ecbi
ADP post-2020Options of EngagementSpectrum of Obligations?How does operationalizing equity, CBDR/RC relate to commitments?Key elements of KP which are to be taken over into the ADP outcome?How to deal with the US?
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Developed Country: Option A Binding (Obligation) Non-binding (Aspiration)
Domestically Internationally
Mitigation Targets
Unsupported Quantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity Qualitative PAMs
SupportedQuantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity Qualitative PAMs
n/a
MRV
KP rules ICA rules IAR rules
New ex ante Accounting Rules n/a
Compliance Regime
n/a
Finance Assessed Contributions Voluntary Contribution
Options to Engage
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Developed Country: Option B Binding (Obligation) Non-binding (Aspiration)
Domestically Internationally
Mitigation Targets
Unsupported Quantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity Qualitative PAMs
SupportedQuantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity Qualitative PAMs
n/a
MRV
KP rules ICA rules IAR rules
New ex ante Accounting Rules n/a
Compliance Regime
n/a
Finance Assessed Contributions Voluntary Contribution
Options to Engage
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Developing Country: Option A Binding (Obligation) Non-binding (Aspiration)
Domestically Internationally
Mitigation Targets
Unsupported Quantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Qualitative PAMs
SupportedQuantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity Qualitative PAMs
n/a
MRV
KP rules ICA rules
IAR rules
New ex ante Accounting Rules
n/a
Compliance Regime
n/a
FinanceAssessed Contributions
Voluntary Contribution
Options to Engage
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Developing Country: Option B Binding (Obligation) Non-binding (Aspiration)
Domestically Internationally
Mitigation Targets
Unsupported Quantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Qualitative PAMs
SupportedQuantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity
Qualitative PAMs n/a
MRV
KP rules
ICA rules IAR rules
New ex ante Accounting Rules n/a
Compliance Regime
n/a
FinanceAssessed Contributions
Voluntary Contribution
Options to Engage
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Aristotle’s principle of formal equality:
“Treat like cases as like”
Nicomachean Ethics, V.3. 1131a10-b15; Politics, III.9.1280 a8-15, III. 12. 1282b18-23
Equity on the Durban Platform
Full Aristotelian Conception
Descriptively equal cases ought to be treated equally, descriptively unequal cases ought to be treated unequally, according to their degree of inequality.
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Capability as Ability to Pay − A Taxation Model
Capability = Gross Capability minus Capability AdjustmentCk = GCk − Cak [cu : capacity unit]
taxable income = gross income minus tax allowances
Gross Capability Axioms (gdp = GDP/cap)
If gdpk = gdpm then GCk : GCm = GDPk : GDPm
If GDPk = GDPm then GCk : GCm ~ gdpk : gdpm
Oxford Gross CapabilityGross Capability = Progressively weighted National Income:OGCk ~ γk × GDPk, with γk = gdpk / gdpworld [cu/$]
european capacity building initiative ecbi
$0 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000
-$1,000
$1,000
$3,000
$5,000
$7,000
$9,000
$11,000
$13,000
$15,000GDP (2009 $ PPP)
GDP ($PPP, 2009) per capita$0 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000 Gross Capabilities (δ = 1)
GDP ($PPP, 2009) per capita
Gross Capability Examples OGCk = (γk)δ × GDPk, δ ≥ 0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
US (γ = 4.3)
EU; Japan (γ = 3.0)
γδ
China (γ = 0.6)
India (γ = 0.29)δ
Degrees of progressivity
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Oxford Measure − Capability Adjustment
Capability = Gross Capability minus Capability AdjustmentAdjustment for what?The magnitude of the domestic poverty problemMeasuring the size of the poverty problem − two dimensions:• Poverty Headcount PHk [number of poor people]
• Poverty Intensity Index: PIk [scalar]
The magnitude of the poverty problem: (PHk × PIk)• Global Poverty Capability Allowance Π [cu/person]
Poverty Capability Adjustment: PCAk = Π × (PHk × PIk) [cu]
Multidimensional Poverty Index: MPIk [scalar]
PCAk = Π × Pk × MPIk , with Pk = population
european capacity building initiative ecbi
$0 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000
Gross Capability (δ = 1)
GDP ($PPP, 2009) per capita
Gross and Net Capability Examples
$0 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000
Gross Capability (δ = 0)
$0 $10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Net Capability (δ = 1; Π = 3×ZCALDC)
Reference level
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Net Capability: Sensitivity to Choice of Poverty Allowance Π
Cap
abili
ty In
tens
ity (O
CM
k /G
DP k)
Poverty Allowance Π = ZCALDC ×
LDC
1 2 3 4 5 6
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
0 1 2 3 4 5
-300%
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Slope = Poverty Intensity (Poverty Headcount × Poverty Intensity)/GDP
(PHk × PIk )/GDPk
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Oxford Measure − Sample Capabilities I
Non-zero C
apability
Zero Capability
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000 GDP ($PPP, 2009) per capita
Cap
abili
ty
EU
US
China
South Africa
Brazil
IndiaLDC aggr.
Russia
Saudi
JapanCanada
AustraliaSwitzerland UAE
δ = 1, Π = 3 × ZCALDC
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Operationalising “Differentiated Responsibilities”− for global average temperature increase
http://www.match-info.net/ http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/other_methodological_issues/items/1038.php
european capacity building initiative ecbi
1892 1901 1910 1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000 -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Global Emissions
1892 1901 1910 1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000 -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Global Oceanic Absorptions
Annual Oceanic Absorption
1892 1901 1910 1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000 -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Global ‘Responsible’ Emissions
Annual Oceanic Absorption Annual Responsible Emissions
The MATCH methodology
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Historic Responsibilities 1980-2005
US EU25 China India WorldCO2 Gt % Gt % Gt % Gt % Gt %
Historic Emissions 413 20 374 18 227 11 81 4 2,098 100Responsible Emissions 368 28 267 21 39 3 0 0 1,300 100Surplus Allowances 0 0 0 42
189018941898190219061910191419181922192619301934193819421946195019541958196219661970197419781982198619901994199820022006201020142018202220262030
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
India (cumulative)
Resp. Allowances Emissions
Responsibility Headroom
“Responsibility Headroom”