INDIA: INTEGRATED MODELING FRAMEWORK

P.R. Shukla and Vaibhav ChaturvediIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

Asia Modeling MeetingSeptember 17, 2009

Tsukuba, Japan

Integrated Modeling Framework

DATABASES-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKALModel

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

elA

IM Strategic D

atabase(SD

B)

Integrated Modelling FrameworkDATABASES

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKALModel

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

elA

IM Strategic D

atabase(SD

B)

DATABASESSocio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment

AIM CGE/MINICAM

ANSWER-MARKALModel

AIM ExSSEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

(SDB

)(Strategic D

atabase)

Integrated Modelling Framework

Key Design Characteristics• Model: ANSWER-MARKAL (REGIONAL ENERGY

SYSTEM MODEL) • Participating Modelers: P.R. Shukla, Prem Pangotra,

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Prasoon Agarwal, Amir Bazaz• Time Step: 5-years• Time Frame: 2000-2050• Solution Type: Dynamic, Optimal• Equilibrium Type: Energy Marker Equilibrium• Underlying Computing Framework: GAMS

Inputs and Outputs• Key inputs

– Demographics: age, gender and income structure of the population– Economic: GDP, Sector GVA, Energy Prices, Price elasticities, End-

use demands – Resources: Domestic depletable resources by grade (e.g. fossil

fuels and uranium); renewable resources by grade (e.g. wind, solar).– Technology: Technology representations of production,

transformation and use technologies– Carbon Prices, Emissions Constraints

• Key outputs– Primary energy consumption, production, transformation, end use,

and trade.– By energy source, end-use sector: CO2 emissions, non-CO2 GHG

emissions (e.g. CH4 ) and non-GHG pollutants (SO2 , NOx etc.)– Supply and demand-side technology penetrations– Shadow Prices, Investment

Regional Scope & Other Detail• Regional Details:

– Regional Scope: National (MARKAL), Cities (with ExSS)

• Other Details:– Energy Demand Sectors: Industry, Transportation,

Buildings, Agriculture, Public services (e.g. water supply, street lighting)

– Energy Supply Sectors: Fossil Energy Production, Electricity Generation, Direct Energy Supply (e.g. solar in buildings)

– End-use Technologies: Alternate industrial processes, demand-side energy technologies

– Other: 3R type policies, Infrastructure choices, Materials stocks accounting etc.

MINICAM: Primary Energy & Emissions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mto

e

Base Case Scenario: INDIA

OilGas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewable

Unconventional oil

Per Capita Emissions and GDP

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Per

Cap

ita G

DP

in 2

005

USD

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Per

Cap

ita E

mis

sion

s in

ton

carb

on

GDP- India China OECD Emissions- India China OECD

BaU

INDIA: Carbon Emissions

MINICAM: Implications of Stabilization Scenarios

450 ppmv Scenario

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mto

e

OilGas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewable

Unconventional oil

550 ppmv Scenario

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Mto

e

OilGas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewable

Unconventional oil

GDP Loss for India

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

%

450 ppmv

550 ppmv

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mto

e

Base Case Scenario: INDIA

OilGas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewable

Unconventional oil

MARKAL: Energy and Carbon Emissions

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mto

e

Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass

Energy From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%

Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times

Growth of Economy and Population

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

20002005 201020152020202520302035204020452050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Others

CCS

Device EfficiencyRenewable Energy

Electricity (Fuel Switch)

Base

CT

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

20002005 201020152020202520302035204020452050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

OthersOthers

CCS

Device EfficiencyDevice EfficiencyRenewable Energy Renewable Energy

Electricity (Fuel Switch)Electricity (Fuel Switch)

Base

CT

2050

OthersCCSTransport ModeUrban PlanningConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsAppliance EfficiencyRenewable Energy BuildingElectricity (Fuel Switch)

Renewable Energy Renewable

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005201020152020202520302035204020450

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005201020152020202520302035204020452050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

550 ppmv Mitigation: Conventional Scenario 550 ppmv Mitigation: Sustainability Scenario

AMC (Old

boundary)

AMC (New

boundary)

Transport Efficiency

Industry Efficiency

Building Efficiency

Fuel Switch

Coal + CCS

Emissions101718065

9163

1632901

12553031

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2035 BaU 2035 CM

GH

G E

mis

sion

s/re

duct

ions

( kt

-C02

)

Emission reduction(67%)

24047

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.0

Valu

e in

200

5 =

1

TransportDemand

EnergyDemand

GHG Emissions

2005 2035 BAU 2035 CM

Passenger Transport Sector

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

Inde

x 20

05 =

1

Output (bil. INR)

EnergyDemand

GHGEmissions

2005 2035 BAU 2035 CMIndustry Sector

ExSS Model: Low Carbon Transition in Ahmedabad CityAhmedabad (2009) Pop 5.5 Mil

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton As told to CNN's Fareed Zakaria in an interview http://business.rediff.com/report/2009/aug/11/do-not-follow-us-growth-model-clinton-tells-india.htmhttp://edition.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/fareed.zakaria.gps/

"Although India and China have every right to choose their own path of development, they should not follow the American model in their Endeavour to improve the condition of their citizens, ….“

"Our argument to China and India is: Yes, you have a right to develop and we want you to develop, and in fact, we admire your commitment to eradicating poverty and we want to help you do that. But you can't do it the way we did it, because you will suffer consequences that will undermine your development" ….

Perspectives on Developing Country Scenarios

Joseph Stiglitz“For developing countries, the ‘good news’ is that their environment and natural resources policies are often so bad that there are reforms which would be both good for the economy and good for the environment.”