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Powertrain Evolution and ElectrificationImprovement of Combustion-engine powertrains, and future alternatives

Presentation at CII 14th Technology Summit and Technology Platform 2008

Trevor Downes – Executive Vice-President, Ricardo India Private Limited6th December 2008

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Environmental Damage

Fossil Fuel Depletion

The transition to a sustainable energy economy is probably the greatest collective challenge we have ever faced. The problem is a long term one but the transition is already underway...

Security of Energy Supply

Air QualityGlobal

Warming

The ‘Keeling Curve’

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Transition to a sustainable energy economy will take a long time, but most countries are adopting low carbon targets for road transport

226

year

s

Newcomen's first Steam Engine for mine drainage, UK1712

Rainhill Trial for first steam railway locomotive, UK1829

Last sailing ships transport wheat from Australia to Europe1938

Transition to the Fossil Fuel Economy1712-1938

NEDC-Equivalent CO2

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020

g/km

NED

C E

quiv

alen

t CO

2

EU-15EU Actual Trend

CA Car

China CarCanada Car

AustraliaJapan

Source: Ricardo Analysis

Fed Vote

Now (Europe) 1.6% PA Legislative Plans 3-4% PA

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Conventional powertrain technology can continue to offer improvements to the next decade and beyond

Clean Diesel engines offer 20%+ fuel economy improvement over a conventional Gasoline; down-sizing via advanced turbocharging technology offers perhaps 10-20% more improvement

New Gasoline engine technologies will however close the gap with Diesel, and cost less to make - for example Ricardo’s Lean Boost system offers near-Diesel economy at 80% of the unit engine cost

Efficient automated transmissions can offer up to 5% benefit over a Manual, can enable down-sized engines to be more driveable, and are attractive to customers on our more congested roads

Advanced control technology allows the vehicle to operate as an integrated whole, and ultimately be more efficient by knowing what lies ahead -via GPS / map or telematics information

Hybrid Powertrains are the next major step, offering up to 50% reduction on today's fuel consumption, and providing a stepping stone to Fuel Cell & Plug-in systems

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Hybrids combine enhanced power storage and generation with flexible traction, usually both combustion and electric motors

~ ~

~Yes NoMaybe

INCREASING HYBRIDISATION / ELECTRICIFICATION

ICE Stop – StartRegenerationICE Torque Boost

Downsized IC EngineEV ModeE-traction OnlyIC Engine Generator

Fuel SavingDeleted IC Engine

Micro Hybrid Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Range Extended EV

ElectricVehicle

3-20% 20-35% 30-50% Power Source Dependantesp in city 50% of saving from downsizing

Best For Urban delivery vans Family cars (G/D) Premium Cars Small city cars Small city cars Gasoline city cars Mixed Duty Cycle Tend to urban duty low extra-urban dury urban only

On Sale M&M Bolero Honda Civic IMA Toyota Prius None RevaBMW 1 & 3 Series Saturn Vue Ford Escape Th!nk

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Hybrid Systems perform best in congested traffic. Where higher speeds feature (as in EU), Diesel Hybrid is best - but expensive

City Traffic (congested)

Time Time Time

Urban / MotorwayCity Traffic (flowing)

Spe

ed

Full hybrid with

petrol engine

Conventionaldiesel engine

Mild hybrid with petrol engine

bette

r

Fuel

Eco

nom

y Im

prov

emen

t Rel

ativ

e to

C

onve

ntio

nal G

asol

ine

Engi

ne

Source: Schommers, DaimlerChrysler + GM, Aachen Oct 05 + Ricardo Internal Data

Full hybrid withdiesel engine

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The highly evolved Hybrid sets a challenging benchmark for the Fuel Cell and the Hydrogen Economy…

Today's Benchmark H2&FC Technology 2020 Benchmark

Fuel Diesel BioDieselHydrogen

Driving Range 600-800km 400km 1000km

Well-to-Wheel CO2 160g/km 150g/km (fossil)82g/km (potential)0g/km (renewable)

80g/km (30% Bio)

Pollutants Euro 4 Zero Euro 7

Vehicle on-cost Baseline +€5,000 - €10,000 +€3,000 - €5,000

FC car cost estimate based on circa €75/kWSome technology developers are suggesting that a PEM stack cost can be reduced to €10/kW by 2020-2030, but this relies on technology that is not yet proven; plus issue of H2 tank cost

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The Powertrain roadmap shows improved conventional technologies supplemented by Hybridisation and blended Biofuels - then, maybe, the emergence of a Hydrogen economy…

20252010 2015 20202005

Image HybridsMainstream Micro / Mild Hybrids

Mainstream Full HybridsPerformance Full Hybrids

Dieselisation - EuropeClean Diesel (Gasoline NOx)

Dieselisation - North America / RoW

First Generation Improved GasolineSecond Generation Improved Gasoline

Improving efficiency of conventional transmissionsNew generation transmissions - DCT, quick-shift AMT, CVT

Niche Alternative Fuels - LPG, NG

Biofuel Blends (Increasing %age in std fuel)GTL etc added to blends

E85 Bi-fuel vehicles

Fossil Hydrogen for Pilot Communities

Sustainable / CCS / Nuclear HydrogenHydrogen Fuel Cell and ICE Hybrids?

Fuel Cells as APUs

Plug-in Hybrids

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Ricardo is a long standing technology provider, traditionally specialising in automotive, and diversifying into Clean Tech

• Corporate, business unit and product strategy

• Powertrain, vehicle and systems integration engineering

• Research• Advanced programmes• MY programmes and post SOP

support• Niche manufacture

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Thank youQuestions?

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Supplimentary Information

Powertrains will evolve through ICE downsizing, electrification and energy management

European CO2 emissions legislation Proposal

Battery technology likely to move to Li-Ion, but energy density still low compared with fossil fuels

Plug in hybrids

Powertrain improvements for fuel economy most relevant to transient usage. Highway usage requires more innovation

Evolution of technologies in market place rather than revolution

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Powertrains will evolve through downsizing of combustion engine, electrification and energy management

Today 2015 2025 2030?

* Assumes Plug-in electric power use only

ICE Swept Volume (litres)Engine Power (kW)Electric Power (kW)Battery Capacity (kW.h)Electric Only Range (km)

1.6750

0.50

1.2752025

0.87030415

0.56540835

Fuel

Diesel/ Gasoline

Transmission

Battery Plug-in Ext.Charge

Fuel

Exhaust Heat Energy Recovery

Minimised Combustion Engine

Downsized Engine

Power Electronics

Fuel

High Voltage Motor/ Battery

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European Union representatives have reached agreement on binding CO2 limits for passenger cars

Proposal to be approved by EU Environment Council meeting on 4-5 December

Approval by European Parliament (debate and vote) on 16-17 December

Long term target of 95g/km CO2 for new car fleet by 2020

65%75%

80%

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2012 2013 2014 2015

Percentage of Cars Expected to Meet 120g/km Fleet Average in Europe

Proposed Fines for Non Compliance With European Fleet CO2 Average

515

25

9585 85 85 85

0102030405060708090

100

1 2 3 4g/km CO2

Euro

s pe

r car

050100150200250300350400450500

2012 - 2018

2019+

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Energy storage for Hybrid systems – NiMH challenged by new Li-Ion chemistries but still 100x lower energy density than gasoline

Energy Storage Device

Energy Density

Power Density

Wh/kg kW/kg

Flywheel 140Air at 20 bar 75

H2 33,500Gasoline 12,000

Lithium Ion <180 0.9NiMH <80 0.8Zebra ~90 ~0.2

Bipolar Lead Acid 30Super Capacitors 5 <5

Lithium Ion Polymer 100 to 155 0.1 – 0.3Cr-F-Li ~ 0.7

NiMH – Nickel Metal Hydride– widespread in current hybrids– tolerant to overcharge– SOC estimation difficult

Energy Density Wh/kg

Pow

er d

ensi

t y

W/k

g

HEV

EV

UltracapNiMHPb AcidLithiumGasoline

Li-Ion – Lithium Ion– Highest energy and power density– Cost challenge – Ni-MH equivalent by 2009?– Management at individual cell level– low overcharge tolerance and catastrophic failure

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Plug-in hybrids show large potential though high battery costs are currently limiting their financial feasibly

Plug-in hybrids are any type of Hybrid which can be re-charged from grid

Plug-in hybrids offer reduced CO2 when operated on low carbon electricity (e.g. coal with carbon sequestration, renewable or nuclear)

Significant plug-in interest in the US– Potential to reduce dependence on

imported oil/petroleum products– Electricity supply from domestic fuel

sources

Batteries charged using off-peak electricity

Battery sized for range of 10-40 miles (15-60 km) - gasoline fuel for longer distances

Key hurdle is is energy storage technology– Cost: Currently up to ~$20k US for battery– Size: Limited package space in pass cars– Durability: Replacement cost major issue

Current Battery Cost Estimate (000s USD)

2.1 3.38.3

13.2

3.3 5.3

13.2

21.1

10 Mile, 80% DOD

10 Mile, 50% DOD

40 Mile, 80% DOD

40 Mile, 50% DOD

500 $/kWh800 $/kWh

Note: battery cost is a contentious subject, driven by differing views on materials costs, rate of technical improvement, permissible depth of discharge (DOD), range, etc.

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Engine technologies to improve fuel economy generally more applicable to city/urban driving – highway improvements need more innovative solutions..

Time

Urban / Motorway

Time

City Traffic (flowing)

City Traffic (congested)

Time

Spe

edS

peed

Spe

ed

Turbo Compound

Split Cycle?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Stop/Start

Stop/Start

Stop/Start

20% DownsizeVGC/T

20% DownsizeVGC/T

20% DownsizeVGC/T

20% Downsize

Mild Hybrid

20% Downsize

Mild Hybrid

20% Downsize

Mild Hybrid

40% Downsize

Seq 2 Turbo

40% Downsize

Seq 2 Turbo

40% Downsize

Seq 2 Turbo

40% Downsize Full Hybrid

40% Downsize Full Hybrid

40% Downsize Full Hybrid

Fuel Economy Improvement / CO2 Reduction (Indicative)

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Industry and consumers tend to favour risk-managed evolution. Small steps tend to be most cost effective for mass markets, giving incremental improvements applied to a large quantity of product

BENEFIT: Energy Security, Environment, Sustainability

CO

ST: E

xtra

uni

t cos

t, co

st o

f cha

nge

Existing Technology: e.g. Car Dieselisation,

Home Insulation

Advanced Technology:Hybrid vehicles, Combined

Heat & Power stations, Biofuels blended into fossil

New Energy Technology:Sustainable Electricity &

Hydrogen, Fuel Cells

Costlier and riskier technologies only

enter the mass market once the driver becomes strong enough

If each is a small step from the last, cost and

risk are minimised

Today's market will only pay a certain price per unit benefit