Steps Towards Sustainable Mobility

Automotive News World Congress

Bill ReinertToyota Motor Sales, U.S.A.January 22, 2008

Global development ofGlobal development ofindustry & technologyindustry & technologyin the 21st centuryin the 21st century

Accelerated Accelerated consumption of consumption of

fossil fuelsfossil fuels

1. Energy & Fuel Diversification

3. Air QualityPopulationPopulation growth growth

(esp. BRIC)(esp. BRIC)

Growing number Growing number of motor of motor vehiclesvehicles

2. CO2 reduction

The “Big 4” – Issues facing the auto industry

4. Urban Congestion

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

b/d

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

mill

ion

b/d

Non-OPEC less FSU

OPEC

FSU

Other liquids, biofuels, etc.

EIA 2007 forecast (1.5% pa)

0.75% pa demand

Spare capacity

Third crisis, world peaks and OPEC plateaus

Second crisis, Non-OPEC peaks

First crisis, Non OPEC less FSU peaks

Used with permission by Dr. Peter Wells

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

mill

ion

b

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

mill

ion

b/yWorld discoveries,

5 year average

World production

Used with permission by Dr. Peter Wells

Biodiesel Refining

Soy Irrigation

Ethanol Processing

Corn Irrigation

Hydrogen Electrolysis

Hydrogen Reforming

Uranium Processing

Uranium Mining

Oil Storage in Salt Cavern

Oil Sands

Oil Shale In-Situ

Oil Shale Surface Retort

Refining

Enhanced Oil Recovery

Petroleum Extraction

Gas Storage in Salt Cavern

Natural Gas Pipeline Operations

Natural Gas Extraction & Processing

Coal Gasification

Coal Slurry

Coal Liquefaction

Coal Washing

Coal Mining1000001 10 1000100 10000

Energy Use and Water Requirements

Growth in Vehicle Ownership and Urban Congestion

Sustainable Mobility

ProductsEnvironment

in which theproduct “lives”

Energyto power the

product

PartnershipsRequired to bring

these products to market

Sustainable Mobility – Overview

A system approach

Life Cycle Assessment and Air Quality

kg CO2/kg

LCA Example – CO2 from Materials Production

Prius LCA and Air Quality

Solutions—Toyota’s Approach

1. Balance reduction of environmental impact with meeting Consumer Wants

2. Mass market appeal

3. Life Cycle Assessment

Prius Development

Types of Plug-ins

There are many variations on the PHEV idea– Different battery sizes– Degree of ICE involvement– All Electric Range (AER) vs. Blended Strategy

BatteryElectric Vehicle

(“BEV”)

FCHV Electric(FC as EV

rangeextender)

Series PHEV(ICE as EV

range extender)

Prius PHEV

FCHV

Prius

ParallelHV

Engine Stop HV

TraditionalICE

0%Electric

100%Electric

AER - Volt- Hy-Series- Prius Conversions

Blended

PHEV Types

Must understand how PHEVs fit inMust understand how PHEVs fit in

○

？

××

◎

◎

FC

◎○△Fuel cost

others ×○○○Infrastructure

×

◎

◎

EV

◎○○Single Fill

Range

△△EnergyDiversity

CO2

○×→△

○

HVDieselGasoline

○△～○× ～△

○

？

××

◎

◎

◎○△

×○○○

×

◎

◎

Primary Issues

◎○○

△△

○×→△○

○△～○× ～△

PHEV

Emissions

◎ ◎

Powertrain Comparison

Plug-ins change the source of the emissions

Unless the electricity used to charge the battery comes from a

renewable source (e.g. wind, solar),

plug-ins trade off tailpipe emissions for emissions at the power plant.

When electricity is generated from low-carbon sources,the CO2 emissions of a PHV are lower than an HV

CO2 ReductionW

ell t

o W

heel

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s （

Priu

s＝

１）

Prius Plug-in

1.0

0.5

U.S.

Japan

France

China

Prius EquivalentVehicle ＬＡ＃４

0.0

The advantage is big in France where nuclear power generation is common.There is no advantage in China, which mainly uses coal-fired power plants.

Comparison of PHEVs and HEV

CO2 Emissions by Stage

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000

PHEV 20, CA

PHEV 20, US

PHEV 60, CA

PHEV 60, US

Prius

Total lbs of emissions over lifetime of vehicle(126K mi; 7 yr battery life; PHEV 20: 39% of total VMT in EV-only mode; PHEV 60: 74%)

Materialproduction

Vehicleassembly

Feedstockproduction

Fuel supply

Vehicleoperation

• Recovery• Transport

• Processing• Transport• Storage

PHEV Marketability Issues

Currently, no commercial potential with such a large increase in battery load

To provide 60km electric drive range would require about 12 times the battery capacity of the current Prius

現状プリウス

バッテリ搭載イメージ

Current Prius

More batteries

Battery Life vs. Charge Cycle

Li Ion Battery Technology – Development and Testing

050

100150200250300350400450500

Cell Module Full Pack RealWorld

Time & Cost

• Limited “real world” knowledge in vehicle application– Toyota has experience with mild hybrid Vitz– Limited number of conversions and specialty vehicles

• Must gain experience with Li-Ion technology in HEV before PHEV• Key issues to be resolved

– Safety– Durability (Life of vehicle) & reliability (≥NiMH)– Cost– End of life recycling

SingleCell

RealWorldModules Full

Packs

Most “advanced” Li-Ion batteries

Incr

easi

ng

PHEV Contribution to Energy Consumption

0 60 12020 100

50

100

40 80 140

Source: 1990 Nationwide personal Transportation survey

(%)

Cumulative percent of personal automobiles

Cumulative percent ofenergy consumption for travel distance

Approx. 20%

Approx. 35%

Average Daily Travel Distance Vehicle (miles)

American Driving Patterns

Sustainable Mobility

ProductsEnvironment

in which theproduct “lives”

Energyto power the

product

PartnershipsRequired to bring

these products to market

AB 1811 – Encompasses all aspects of Sustainable Mobility

FCHV PHEV HV Urban Transp.System Univ. Govt. NGOsH2 Elec. ?

1811

UCILCA BA/SCAQMD

Air QualityModeling UCB

ZEV-NET

’08Proto

H2

Infra.

’10PHEV

Conclusions

• Geopolitics surrounding remaining oil supplies will increase focus on energy security

• Climate change solutions will fight for “shelf space” with energy security and land use issues

• Decreased water supplies due to prolonged drought and contamination are a more near term threat than impacts from climate change

• Focus should be on most profound issues first• Societal preparation for greatly increased energy

costs is key for carbon reduction plans