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Power of the Black Vote in 2017


Contents

3 Foreword - Simon Woolley4 The Black Vote5 HowInfluentialistheBlackVote?6 Challengefortheparties8 WhereistheBlackVote?

© Operation Black VoteMay 2017

Researched, written and designed by Lester Holloway

To understand the potential political power of the Black and Minority Ethnic vote one needs to look no further

than the top ten most marginal seats in the country. Seven of the ten have very significant BME voter populations. That means in some of the fiercest battlegrounds, during this snap election race, the BME electorate could easily be the deciding factor.

TakeCroydonCentralforexample,thisConservativeseathasawafer-thinmajorityofjust165votes.TheseatisinaLabour-heldboroughwithaBMEvotingpopulationofover30,000.Inthiselection,aswiththeprevious2015generalelection,aseatlikethiscannotbewonwithouttheBMEvote.It’sassimpleasthat.

Inotherverymarginalseats,thistimeheldbyLabour-likeBrentfordand Isleworth,orHampsteadandKilburn - La-bourwillbecountingupontheBMEvotetosavethemonceagain.Ifthepartylosesitsappeal,andBMEcommunitiesbelievethatTheresaMaycandeliveraswellastalkthetalkonraceequalitypolitics,thenconstituenciessuchasthesemayholdthekeytohersuccess.

Thisisanelectionlikenoother,inwhicheachofthemainpolitical leadersneeds theBMEvote,all forverydifferentreasons.Here’swhatthiselectionmeansforthemainpartyleaders:

Theresa May: Althoughthepunditssayshe’llwin,we’velearntfromveryrecentelectionsandthereferendumthatwe should not rule out the unexpected. But even if shedoeswin,ifshedoesn’twinbigthePMwouldnothavethatgreatlydesiredBrexitmandate.Itwouldinmanywaysfeellikeasmallbutsignificantdefeat.MayneedstheBMEvotetowinbig.

Jeremy Corbyn: Hisgoal,beyonddoingthecompletelyunex-pectedandwinning,istospoilTheresaMay’sparty.Ifhecanstopherwinningahugemajoritywhenthepollshavewrit-tenhimof,hewillfeellikeawinner.CorbynhasprivatelysaidthatkeytargetgroupswhoinstinctivelygravitatetoLabourareyoungpeopleandBMEvoters.CorbynneedstheBMEvoteforhisownsurvival.

Tim Farron: Astheonlypoliticalpartythatwillcampaignasapro-EuropeanUnionparty,FarronisbankingonthemillionsofRemainvoterswhoarepetrifiedbythepotentialofa‘hardBrexit’.Farron’scallhasbeen,‘ifyouwanttoreigninThe-resaMayduringtheBrexitdiscussionsvoteLibDem.’Farronisalsoacutelyawarethatverymuchliketheyoungervoters,BMEvoterswereheavilyRemain-75%infact.FarronneedstheBMEvotetoprovetheLibDemsareback.

InthedaysandweeksaheadduringthiselectionOBVwillbehighlyactive,includinganaggressivelast-minutevoterregistrationdrivewithaposterandsocialmediacampaign.Wewillusethisclout,alongwithourmanifestodemands,toforcedialogueanddiscussionwithpoliticalpartiesaboutrelevantpolicyissues.

Simon WoolleyNational Coordinator - Operation Black Vote

Foreword

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The Black or BME Vote: complexities and voting patterns

Labour has traditionally held the lion’s share of what is termed the ‘Black vote’ or the ‘BME vote’ (Black and

Minority Ethnic).

Whilefarfromahomogenous,surveystellusthatonaver-ageLabour’sBlackvotehassteadilyfallenwitheachsuc-cessivegeneralelectionfromover80percentinthe1980sto68percentin2015.AkeyquestioninthissnapgeneralelectioniswhetherthattrendawayfromLabourcontinues,orevenaccelerates,andwhatimpactthatmighthaveonthe result,orwhether JeremyCorbyn can stem theflowofBMEvotestotheConservativeswithastrongmanifestoprogrammetotackleracialinequality.

Atthe2015electionBMEvoterswerestilltwiceaslikelytovoteLabourcomparedtotheirWhitepeers.LocalelectionsinMay2017sawaConservativeregionalmayorelectedinthehighly-diverseWestMidlands.CloserinspectionrevealsthatareasofhigherBMEpopulation(Birmingham,Sandwell)gavegreatersupporttotheLabourcandidate,howevereveryre-gionintheregionhasasignificantBMEpopulationandthere-forethisresultfocusesattentiononwhetherLabourcanstillholdontoBMEsupport.

ICMpolls trackingnon-whitevoting intentionsnationwideduring the2017election run-up indicate that Labour sup-port amongst BME voters is running between 37 and 47percent,withtheConservativesarebehindonbetween20and 26 percent. That equates to an average 19-point gapinLabour’sfavour,butfivepointsdownontheBritishElec-

tionStudy2015estimates,andamassive33pointsdownon2010electionestimates.StudiesassessingtheproportionofBMEvotestheConservativestookin2015varybetweenoneinthreetooneinfourvotes.

Thesefigurespointtoan importanttrend;thatBMEvot-ersareincreasinglymovingoutofthe‘innercities’-areaswithhighconcentrationsofBMEresidents-andintomoremarginalandlessdiverseelectionbattlegrounds.Thiswasa trend identified in Operation Black Vote’s 2015 Power of the Black Votereport.ItisclearthattheinfluenceandpotentialpowerofBMEvoteshasincreasedasaresultofgreaternumbersinsuburbsandsmalltowns.

Voting patterns indicate that the same racial group aremorelikelytovoteLabouriftheyliveinseatswithahightoveryhighnon-Whitepopulation,butaremoreinclinedtovoteConservativeastheymoveoutofthoseareasandintolessracially-diverseareas.

BMEcommunitiesarenotahomogenousgroupandtherearemanydifferentvotingpatternsacrossAsian,AfricanandCaribbeanandothercommunities. Indeed,therearefur-thercomplexitieswithevidencethatthesameracialgroupcandisplaydifferentpoliticalpreferencesnotjustaccordingtosocialstatus(forexampleincome)butalsowhichregionofthecountrytheylivein.


The winner of the snap general election called by Theresa May has been declared a foregone con-

clusion by many pollsters and political commenta-tors, but if the polls are wrong then other factors will come into play. The Black or BME electorate is a key factor in many swing seats.

ThisstudylookingattheinfluenceoftheBlackvoteinthe2017snapgeneralelectionshowsthatthetoptenmostmarginalseatsinEnglandandWalesallhaveBMEelectoratesgreaterthanthemajorityoftheMPelectedin2015.SevenofthosetoptenseatshaveBMEelector-atescountassignificant.

Ofthetop50swingseats,45haveBMEelectorateslargerthan the2015majority. Significantly so for31of them.Andofthetop200swingseats,96haveBMEelectorateslargeenoughtomakethedifference.

Thatmakes the Britain’s BME communities, whomakeup14percentoftheEnglandandWalespopulationac-cording to the 2011 census, key players in determiningtheoutcomeof thecomingelection.BMEcommunitiespotentiallyholdthebalanceofpowerinover15percentofallparliamentaryconstituencies.

ThereisnodoubtthatthechallengeforLabouristostemtheflowofBMEvotestotheConservatives.ThekeytothiswillbetoholdBMEsupportinthesmalltowns,es-pecially themarginal swing seats, rather than concen-tratingeffortintheir‘innercity’heartlands.

In our study, we analysed the top 200 marginals andfound 34 Conservative-held marginals where the BMEvoteislargerthanthemajorityofthesittingMP,and34Labour-heldmarginalswhichfellintothesamecategory.

TheLibDems lostmostof their seatswitha significantBMEpopulation in 2015butwill need towin back the‘Blackvote’toregainthoseseats.

Our analysis also found an additional 20 Conservative-heldmarginalswheretheBMEpopulationwasnotlarger

How influential is the Black Vote in 2017?

thanthemajorityofthesittingMPbutneverthelesslargeenoughincomparisonwiththeslim2015majoritytohaveanimpactintheresultin2017.TherewerealsosevenLa-bour-heldmarginals andone LiberalDemocrat-heldmar-ginalthatfellintothiscategory.

Whatactuallytranspiresinthissnapelectionmaywellbeinfluenced by how successful each party is in making a‘value-added’pitchtoBMEcommunitiesthatinadditiontotheirgeneralmanifestopledgestheyalsocareaboutraceequalityandhaveaplantoaddressracism,includinginsti-tutionalorsystemicracialinequality.

A coalition of race equality non-governmental organisa-tionsaretolauncha‘BlackManifesto’ofdemandsforthenextgovernmenttoaddressinordertomakeBritainamoreracially-equalsociety.Inaddition,OperationBlackVotewillbeseekingtohighlightthepotentialpoweroftheBMEvoteifunder-registrationratesaretackled.

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7 of the top 10 most marginal seats have significant BME populations

Constituency Majority of sitting MP BME Electorate

Statistics from ONS for England and Wales. Majorities of electedMPs at the 2015 general election. Population statistics based on2011 census.

Gower (Con) 27 1,181Derby North (Con) 41 9,793City of Chester (Lab) 93 2,826Croydon Central (Con) 165 32,745Ealing Central & Acton (Lab) 274 36,745Ynys Mon (Lab) 229 1,231Vale of Clwyd (Con) 237 1,484 Brentford & Isleworth (Lab) 465 39,751Bury North (Con) 378 7,599Morley & Outwood (Con) 422 3,271


Challenge for the partiesLabour -We found41Labour-held seatswhereJeremy Corbyn’s party desperately need to hold BMEsupporttoretaintheseat.TheBMEelectoratewaslarg-erthanthemajorityin34ofthoseseats.

14oftheseareintheMidlands,mainlyinBirmingham,and 15 are in the North, including areas that votedBrexit.Just14ofthoseseatsareinLondon,wheretheBMEvotehashistoricallybeenstrongestandmostre-silientforLabour.TheseincludeEalingCentralandAc-ton, Brentford and Isleworth,Hampstead andKilburn,HarrowWest,andEnfieldNorthinthecapital.Despitethoseconstituenciesbeinginthecapitaltheyarenever-thelessvulnerabletoaConservativewin.IfLabourcankeepholdofthemthiswillbevaluableevidenceLabourisholdingtheBMEvote,atleastinLondon.

Historically BME voters have been arguably themostloyalsectionoftheelectoratetowardsLabour. JeremyCorbyn will be hoping this continues. Especially afterseeingsupportplummetinScotlandandBrexit-leaningworkingclasstowns.

It is worth noting that Labour were performing lesswell among BME groups before Corbyn became lead-er.The2015Power of the Black Votereport identified60marginal seatswhereLabourwere insecondplaceand theBMEpopulationwas larger than themajorityoftheConservativeincumbent.Labourfailedtowin51ofthoseseatsunderEdMiliband’s leadership, indicat-ingthatLabourdidnotinspireandmobiliseBMEvotersenoughin2015,includinginsmallertownsandsuburbs.LabourcannotaffordtolosetheirshareoftheBMEvoteinanyofmoremarginalseats.

Conservatives-theToriescouldpotentiallyloseupto34seatswheretheBMEvoteis largerthanthemajorityofthesittingMP.Onethirdoftheseseatsare in the South, with seven in the North. The partyaredefendingsixseatsinLondonanditispossiblethatLabour couldmake inroads here, particularly CroydonCentral and Harrow West, where Conservative sup-porting familiesof Indianoriginhasbeena featureofelectoralpoliticsintheareaforsometime.SuttonandCheam,andHendon,areotherLondonseatswheretheBMEvotewillmattergreatly.

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Top 50 marginal seats by marginality and BME populationConstituency Majority of sitting MP BME Electorate

Statistics from ONS for England and Wales. Majorities of MPs at the 2015 general election. Population statistics based on 2011 census.

Gower (Con) 27 1,181Derby North (Con) 41 9,793City of Chester (Lab) 93 2,826Croydon Central (Con) 165 32,389Ealing Central & Acton (Lab) 274 36,745Ynys Mon (Lab) 229 1,231Vale of Clwyd (Con) 237 1,484 Brentford & Isleworth (Lab) 465 39,751Bury North (Con) 378 7,599Morley & Outwood (Con) 422 3,271Halifax (Lab) 428 12,790Wirral West (Lab) 417 1,353Thurrock (Con) 536 14,892Plymouth Sutton (Con) 523 4,938Cambridge (Lab) 599 14,631 Ilford North (Lab) 589 35,651Eastbourne (Con) 733 4,438Newcastle-under-Lyme (Lab) 650 5,536Brighton Kemptown (Con) 690 6,409Bolton West (Con) 801 4,742Weaver Vale (Con) 806 1,524Telford (Con) 730 4,304Barrow and Furness (Lab) 795 1,396Wolverhampton SW (Lab) 801 30,152Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab) 1,138 32,802Lewes (Con) 1,083 2,618Enfield North (Lab) 1,086 24,508 Hove (Lab) 1,236 7,880Bedford (Con) 1,097 18,916Plymouth Moor View (Con) 1,026 1,674Dewsbury (Lab) 1,451 17,413Southport (LibDem) 1,322 2,268Lancaster & Fleetwood (Lab) 1,265 3,675Thornbury and Yate (Con) 1,495 2,001Lincoln (Con) 1,443 3,234Carshalton & Wallington (LibDm) 1,510 14,936Twickenham (Con) 2,017 16,080 NE Derbyshire (Lab) 1,883 1,287Peterborough (Con) 1,925 19,050Cardiff North (Con) 2,137 5,883Sheffield Hallam (LibDem) 2,353 5,038Corby (Lab) 2,412 2,956Waveney (Con) 2,408 1,800Warrington South (Con) 1,553 3,587Harrow West (Lab) 2,208 45,629Kingston & Surbiton (Con) 2,834 29,579Bridgend (Lab) 1,927 1,645Middlesborough S & E Clev (Lab) 2,268 1,678Westminster North (Lab) 1,977 37,350St Ives 2,469 1,092


Othermarginal Tory seatswith ahighBMEpopulationthatarevulnerabletoaLabourwinincludeDerbyNorth,andThurrockontheThamesestuary.Ahighproportion(ten)ofthe34seatsareintheSouthofEngland,includ-ing Brighton, Eastbourne, Southampton and Ipswich.Manyofthesearelikelytobeheavilytargeted.

There are a further 20 Conservative-held seats wheretheBMEpopulation is lessthanthemajoritybutstillasignificant influence on the result. These include seatslike Cheadle, Gloucester, Nuneaton, Loughborough,DudleySouth,SolihullandWorcester. Inallbut fourofthese 54 Conservative-held marginal seats with largeBMEpopulationsLabouristhemainchallenger.ThefourremainingseatsarealltargetedbytheLibDems(Twick-enham,Kingston and Surbiton, SuttonandCheamandEastbourne).

The Power of the Black Vote report ahead of the 2015 general electionidentified50Labour-heldmarginalseatswheretheConservativeswerethemainchallengersandtheseathadaBMEelectoratelargerthanthemajority.Ofthose50seatsthe Conservatives won just seven, including BoltonWest,DerbyNorthandSouthamptonItchen.ThissuggeststhattheConservativesdidnotwinoverasignificantsliceoftheBMEvotefromLabour.TherewasundoubtedlymovementintheConservativesdirectionbutitwasmoderate.

Lib Dems -UnderNickCleggtheLibDemslostalltheirmarginalseatswithalargeBMEelectoratein2015butwillbeaimingtowinbackseatslikeSolihullthistimearound.TomanagethistheywillneedtowinoverBMEvoters.Watford,withalargeAsianpopulation,isanothertargettheyaimtosnatchfromtheConservativesandwillneedBMEvotes toachievethat.However,previous tar-getsinStreathamandBrentCentrallookasteptoofarfortheLibDemsin2017,evenwithapositiveBMEswing.

TheLibDemsonlyhavenineseatsandofthesejustone–RichmondPark–hasaBMEpopulationthatissignificantincomparisontotheLibDemmajority.SeatswithnotableBMEpopulationstheyaimtowinbackincludeSouthwarkand Old Bermondsey, Eastbourne, Sutton and Cheam,Burnley, Brent Central, Hornsey and Wood Green, Bir-minghamYardley,CarshaltonandWallington,andTwick-henham.TimFarron’sparty’ssuccessheremaydependtoanextentontheirappeal toBMEcommunities,anareawhichhashistoricallybeenadifficultareaforthem.

45 marginal seats with a significant BME population by party & closest challenger

Constituency Majority of sitting MP BME Population Main % of Electorate % of Electorate Challenger

Statistics from ONS for England and Wales. Majorities of MPs at the 2015 general elec-tion. Population statistics based on 2011 census.

Derby North (Con) 0.09 13.34 LabCity of Chester (Lab) 0.18 4.15 ConCroydon Central (Con) 0.31 38.58 LabEaling Central & Acton (Lab) 0.54 36.31 ConBrentford & Isleworth (Lab) 0.81 42.25 ConBury North (Con) 0.84 11.90 LabMorley & Outwood (Con) 0.87 4.63 LabHalifax (Lab) 0.98 17.33 ConThurrock (Con) 1.08 17.50 LabPlymouth Sutton (Con) 1.09 6.12 LabCambridge (Lab) 1.16 17.42 LibDmIlford North (Lab) 1.20 47.78 ConEastbourne (Con) 1.39 5.68 LibDmNewcastle-under-Lyme (Lab) 1.51 6.22 ConBrighton Kemptown (Con) 1.52 9.56 LabBolton West (Con) 1.65 6.86 LabTelford (Con) 1.80 6.51 LabWolverhampton SW (Lab) 1.99 35.51 ConHampstead and Kilburn (Lab) 2.11 34.48 ConEnfield North (Lab) 2.35 32.49 ConHove (Lab) 2.37 10.79 ConBedford (Con) 2.38 25.57 LabDewsbury (Lab) 2.71 21.62 ConCarshalton & Wal’n (LibDm) 3.17 21.41 ConTwickenham (Con) 3.25 14.33 LibDmPeterborough (Con) 4.09 22.55 LabCardiff North (Con) 4.18 9.12 LabSheffield Hallam (LibDem) 4.24 7.70 LabHarrow West (Lab) 4.74 59.85 ConKingston & Surbiton (Con) 4.78 25.07 LibDmWestminster North (Lab) 5.00 43.70 ConSouthampton Itchen (Con) 5.18 9.20 LabWalsall North (Lab) 5.25 13.72 ConTooting (Lab) 5.31 34.10 ConBirming’m Northfield (Lab) 5.91 14.16 ConKeighley (Con) 6.22 16.39 LabEltham (Lab) 6.24 23.42 ConBirming’m Edgbaston (Lab) 6.55 31.33 ConCoventry South (Lab) 7.30 26.60 ConHendon (Con) 7.50 45.10 LabSutton and Cheam (Con) 7.86 21.40 LibDmBurnley (Lab) 8.16 12.64 LibDmBristol West (Lab) 8.83 25.48 LibDmHarrow East (Con) 9.71 60.76 LabEnfield Southgate (Con) 10.38 30.04 Lab

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The seats where the BME vote is larger than the majority of the sitting MP are spread across several

regions including London (18), the West Midlands (15), Yorkshire and the North-East, the South East and East Anglia (14 each).

Regionswiththe least lessmarginalseats incomparisontotheBMEpopulationaretheEastMidlands(six),Wales,andtheSouthWest(foureach)Scotland,whichwasnotpartofthisstudy,hastwo.

Thereare27seatswherethenon-whitepopulationislargerthan the white population (BME majority seats). Of thesetwoareclearmarginals–HarrowWestandHarrowEast-andoneismoderatemarginal(Slough).Theotherseatsarerea-sonablysafeforLabour,althoughFelthamandHeston,IlfordNorthandLeicesterSouthwillconcernLabour.

Seats with the largest Asian populations

TherearesixseatswheretheAsianpopulationisover50per-centoftheconstituency-LeicesterEast,IlfordSouth,Brad-fordWest,EastHam,BrentNorthandEalingSouthall.Onlyoneof thesecanbereasonablycalledamarginal,BradfordWest.ThispreviouslysafeLabourseatwasheldbyRespectbetween2012and2015.ThesubsequentdeclineofRespectmayreturnthistoaLabourstrongholdagain.

HarrowWestandHarrowEastarebothmarginalswithverylargeAsianpopulations(42percentand45percentrespec-tively).OneisLabour,theotherisConservative.Otherseatswhere there isanAsianpopulation largeenough tohaveasignificantimpactincludeBrentfordandIsleworth,Hendon-bothinthecapital-andDewsburyinYorkshire.

TheIndianpopulationis largerthan15percent in15seats,includingeightmarginals.ThePakistanivotearelargerthan15percentofthepopulationin11seats,includingthreemar-ginals(Pendle,BradfordWestandSlough).

Onlyoneofthetop14seatswithlargePakistanipopulationsisinLondon(IlfordSouth)withtheremainderininBirmingham,theNorth-West (four each), Bradford and Luton (twoeach).Only two seatshaveBangladeshipopulations larger than15percent,theTowerHamletsseatsofBethnalGreenandBow,andPoplarandLimehouse.BotharefairlysafeforLabour.

Where is the Black vote?

25 seats with largest Asian populations (marginals bold)Constituency Asian Population % of ElectorateLeicester East 58Ilford South 57Bradford West 54East Ham 54Brent North 53Ealing Southall 51Birmingham Hodge Hill 50Birmingham Hall Green 49Harrow East 46Harrow West 43Poplar and Limehouse 42Feltham and Heston 41Birmingham Ladywood 40Slough 40Bethnal Green and Bow 40Bradford East 39Birmingham Perry Barr 39Blackburn 38Leicester South 37Hayes and Harlington 36West Ham 34Ilford North 33Walsall South 31Luton South 29Manchester Gorton 29

25 seats with largest Black populations (marginals bold)Constituency Black Population % of ElectorateCamberwell & Peckham 37Croydon North 32Lewisham Deptford 29Edmonton 27Hackney S & Shoreditch 27Tottenham 27Lewisham East 26Erith and Thamesmead 26Brent Central 26Dulwich & West Norwood 25Vauxhall 25Streatham 24West Ham 23Birmingham Ladywood 23Lewisham W & Penge 23Barking 20Bermondsey & Old S’wk 20Greenwich & Woolwich 20Hackney N & Stoke New’tn 20Walthamstow 19Croydon Central 18Mitcham and Morden 18Leyton and Wanstead 17East Ham 16Enfield North 15

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Seats with largest Black populations

Thereare27seatswheretheBlackAfricanandCaribbeanpopulation is larger than 15 percent of the constituencypopulation.26ofthoseareinLondon,withoneinBirming-ham.Onlyfiveof theseconstituenciescanbeconsideredmarginal,whichindicatesthatBlackcommunitiesaremorelikelytobeconcentratedinsafeLabourseats.

TheexceptionsareLabour-heldmarginalsofBermondseyandOldShoreditch(targetedbytheLibDems),DagenhamandRainham,andEnfieldNorth,whichareallswingseats.Blackcommunities(AfricanandCaribbean)arealsoama-jorforceintheConservative-heldseatofCroydonCentral,targetedbyLabour.

However there are a further eightmarginal seats whereBlack electors have a significant population (10 - 15 per-cent)andwheretheycanstillhaveasignificantinfluence.TheseareBattersea,Tooting,Hendon,Hammersmith,Bris-tolWest,HayesandHarlington,HornseyandWoodGreen,BirminghamErdington,andHampsteadandKilburn).

Ofthe16seatswhereAfricansaremorethan10percentofthepopulation,justtwoaremarginals(BermondseyandOldSouthwark,andDagenhamandRainham).Caribbeansare more evenly and thinly distributed as a community,withjustfiveseatshavingaCaribbeanpopulationinexcessof10percent,howevertheyareallsafeLabourseatsatthemoment.

Therearea further19seatswhereCaribbeansare largerthanfivepercentofthepopulation,butjusttwoaremar-ginals–CroydonCentralandBirminghamErdington.

25 seats with largest BME populations (marginals bold)Constituency Non-white Population % of Electorate

BME populations of selected seats today (2011 census) compared to BME population in 1987 in the four seats when Diane Abbott, Keith Vaz, Paul Boateng and the late Bernie Grant were first elected

East Ham 77Ilford South 76Brent North 74Birmingham Ladywood 73Ealing Southall 70Leciester East 68West Ham 65Croydon North 65Birmingham Hall Green 64Birmingham Hodge Hill 64Bradford West 63Brent Central 61Harrow East 61Birmingham Perry Barr 60Harrow West 60Hayes and Harlington 57Poplar and Limehouse 56Camberwell and Peckham 55Feltham and Heston 55Slough 55Walthamstow 53Bethnal Green and Bow 53Edmonton 53Leyton and Wanstead 51Leicester South 51Ealing North 50Lewisham Deptford 50

Brent South (1987) 46Hammersmith (2011) 38Tottenham (1987) 37West Bromwich E (2011) 32Hackney North & StN (1987) 31Chingford & Woodford (2011) 27Leicester East (1987) 26

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