POWER OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND POTENTIAL

CONFLICTS IN GLOBALIZED WORLD

Dr. Prashant Mehta

Assistant Professor, National Law University, Jodhpur

Email: prashantmehta1@rediffmail.com

In today’s globalized economic world shared challenges can bring out the

best in people, at the same time over dependence on each other can also do

the opposite with more devastating effect. Global climate change is one such

typical shared challenge for humanity and its existence, and although the

climate change threat has inspired a substantial amount of international co-

operation, efforts to moderate it at recent Copenhagen Climate Summit 2009

have already proven divisive among the developed nations and rest of the

world.

Addressing an issue which directly affects each one of us we are yet to unite.

Since the 1980s, a growing body of multidisciplinary research has dealt with

the relationship between environmental stress (environmental degradation

and resource scarcity), impact on nations and resulting conflicts. Bad news

continues to emerge form scientific models and empirical observations.

Latest research evidence suggests that unprecedented levels green house

gases build up; its mounting adverse effects can pose an irreversible threat

to mankind is none other than rising global temperatures and its fatal

consequences.

More specifically, the world's biggest carbon polluters (developed and fast

developing countries) the issue of global warming is assuming a level of

breaching threshold of sustainability, where number of other integrated

socio-economic factors, regional interest factors, driver of hunger, social

unrest etc will contribute to increased chances of conflicts across the globe.

The world is facing these new developments as catastrophic to human

civilization and its existence.

The scenario may become more threatening in few years from now when

countries like India and China which today are aspiring to become of great

economic powers of tomorrow. Doing so these countries will have to

maintain a fine balance between fast economic growth and their

responsibilities toward climate change. Fairness demands that all nations

participate in the common effort to contain build up of green house gases,

even if the developed countries must accept more stringent constraints than

the developing countries.

As such answering two critical questions have become imperative for each of

us individually or collectively. They are: Whether climate change impacts are

likely to increase conflict potentials across the globe? Secondly in what way

these findings affect the international progress on the processes,

international negotiations, and finding linkages between climate change and

chances of conflict.

Climate change as of today is already having a considerable impact and

emerging as major challenges on food security, water scarcity, rivalry for

farmland and fishing resources. The available scientific evidence on the

linkages between climate change, high degree of environmental stress, and

conflict focuses on many issues that contribute to both long term

environmental degradation (e.g. of soil and water) and scarcity (e.g. of fresh

potable water and food).

Taking these specific global and national conditions into account, the

environmental stress may lead to several disturbing outcomes like wide

spread international tensions and regional instability besides highlighting

issues like a) distress and mass scale migration like African example of

Darfur, were we see this explosive mixture from the impact of climate

change, which prompts immigration by increasingly impoverished people,

which then has consequences in war., b) impending natural hazards,

calamities, and disaster, c) domestic instability and resulting crises, and d)

internal security or wide scale international conflicts.

Among these structural factors of Global Environmental Change, we can

make a clear distinction between primarily nature-induced factors that are

reinforced by anthropogenic consumption patterns (climate change, water

scarcity and soil erosion) and human activity-induced factors

(unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization, food scarcity and

security). If we keep going down this path, and disturb the delicate balance

of Mother Nature, than the resulting consequences of climate change will

encourage the migration of people from areas of scarcity towards areas

where the population do have something for sustainability, the Darfur crisis

will be only one crisis among dozens of others scattered all across the globe.

The global climate change and its conflict dimension will result in loss of life,

social divisions, and reduction of economic activity, economic instability and

reduced international trade. Special emphasis should be put on how climate

change might exacerbate environmental stresses. Climate change may also

have security consequences in areas where there is large influx of refugee,

health, disaster relief, food, water, sanitation and resettlement.

Large scale mitigation and adaptation measures on environmental stress can

act as effective tools for conflict prevention or conflict reduction. In order to

implement both above mentioned measures for effective results the

objective of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level

that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate

system and natural climate cycles has to be strictly adhered to in lines with

Kyoto protocol and subsequent discussions thereafter.

Climate change impacts will not be the single or main causes of future

conflicts or crises, nevertheless, in combination with other factors climate

change impacts are likely to contribute to magnified environmental stress

and thus could become a potential cause of future conflicts. In order to take

appropriate policy measures, comprehensive assessment procedures are

needed. Today is the best time to look into this problem from

multidimensional perspectives otherwise tomorrow will be too late.

Conclusion: Today is the right time to look into this problem or tomorrow

will be too late for the sustenance of civilized society.