power market and system operating impacts of solar ......• on-peak load trimmed up to 400 mw ......
TRANSCRIPT
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Power Market and System Operating Impacts of
Solar Development in MassachusettsPresented by
Seth Parker, Ellen Cool, Diane Rigosto the
New England Energy and Commerce Association Renewables and Distributed Generation Committee
March 28, 2012
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AgendaSolar Development in Massachusetts
• Conducive to evaluating in-state impacts • Wholesale power market and system impacts – LAI • Regional and state-wide socio-economic impacts – REMI
LAI PresentationIntroduction to the Massachusetts RPS
• Context for renewable development• 400 MW assumed in-state by year-end 2018
Power Market and Operational Impacts• Capacity and energy markets• System operations
Solar Development and Cost Inputs• Required by REMI
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Massachusetts RPSClass I (new)
• 5% in 2010, rising by 1% / yr to 15% by 2020 • 2000 MW wind by 2020• Solar PV carve-out goal of 250 MW by 2017 • 400 MW DOER target and sunset provision
Class II (existing)• 7.1% in 2009 (3.6% renewables; 3.5% waste-to-energy)
ISO-NE Installed and Queued Resources in MAInstalled Queued
• Wind 44 MW 558 MW (+2000 MW in rest of NE) • Solar 95 MW 5 MW
Plus landfill gas, wood, wood waste, etc.
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MA RPS – Class I Alt. Compliance PaymentsLow ACP Proceeds Indicate Achieving RPS Goal
• Solar Carve-Out was added for Class I in 2010
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
AC
P Pr
ocee
ds
Source: MA DOER
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MA RPS – Surplus RECs Banked Forward
Source: MA DOER
More RECs Generated than Needed in Recent Years
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Surp
lus
REC
s
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Massachusetts Solar DevelopmentSREC Prices
• SACP rate: $550 / MWh through 2013, reduced by 5% / yr thereafter• MA consumers pay $179 million / yr @ $300 SREC floor at 400 MW• Clearinghouse price mechanism
Power Market ImpactsCapacity Prices
• UCAP value approximately 20% of nameplate rating• Minimal price suppression
Energy Prices • On-peak load trimmed up to 400 MW• ISO-NE can avoid dispatching high-cost resources
System Operations • Minimal changes expected, especially compared to wind
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MA Solar Development – Energy Load Impacts Mid-Day Peak Loads “Trimmed”
• Actual “negawatts” depend on weather conditions• Limited impact on evening peak
Source: HELCO
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MA Solar Development – Energy Price ImpactsChronological Dispatch Simulation Model
• Powerful tool required to capture system impacts• Actual ISO-NE hourly load curves and solar production• +50 MW / yr up to 400 MW by 2018• Continued low gas and market energy prices• Simulated 2013-2030 with and without new solar
Simulation Model Results • MA ratepayers will save ~$2 million in 2013• MA energy savings will grow to ~$12 million by 2018 • Other New England ratepayers will save ~$8 million / yr
Other “uplift” savings from reduced commitment costs, etc. are small
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MA Solar Development – Energy Price Impacts
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hou
rly P
rice
($/M
Wh)
CF Weighted Average Average
2019 Solar versus Average Hourly PricesISO-NE Wholesale Power Market
• 400 MW of in-state solar
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MA Solar Dev’t – System Operation IssuesWholesale Power Market Planning
• Weather and net load forecasting • DA load planning
System Operations• Load-following resources• Power conditioning / reactive power control
May not be critical at low penetration rates
Distribution Level Operations • Unintended islanding / reverse power flow • Customer subsidization / capping • Voltage regulation, harmonics
Reduced Powerplant Emissions• Not addressed in this analysis
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MA Solar Development – Project Definition Solar Carve-Out of Class I RPS
• Min standard as % of retail load• < 6 MW per parcel of land• Auction clearinghouse pricing
Three Levels of Integration• Utility scale• Distribution-level• Behind-the-meter (net metering)
Capital Costs Drivers • Economies of scale• Crystalline silicon or thin film• Fixed-axis or single-axis
Source: Navigant, “Integrating PV on Distribution”, 2011
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MA Solar Development – In-State Breakdown Solar Developed to Date
Avg. TotalsSize (kW) (MW) Percent
Residential 5.4 5.0 11.0%
Commercial / Office 70.9 13.4 29.3%Municipal / Gov’t 71.2 3.1 6.7%College / Schools 139.2 7.8 17.1% Agricultural 147.5 1.0 2.3%Other 308.0 0.8 1.7%Industrial 523.4 9.4 20.6%Sub-Total 77.7%
Utilities 1,030.8 5.1 11.3%Total 45.7 100.0%
Based on MA DOER data for Qualified Solar Projects as of Dec 22, 2011
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MA Solar Development – Future SpendingFrom 95 MW to 400 MW by 2018
• Current panel prices and 2% escalation• Total investment of $773.5 million over 6 years• Assumed future development:
Residential Commercial Utility-Scale5 kW 216 kW 6 MWbehind-the-meter behind-the-meter interconnected 15% of market 30% of market 55% of market~ $45 million / yr ~ $70 million / yr ~ $125 million / yr
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MA Solar Development – Capital CostsBreakdown by Project Type
Residential Commercial Utility-Scale5 kW 216 kW 6 MW
(millions) (millions)• Hardware $16,350 $0.60 $16.74• Labor $ 5,800 $0.16 $ 4.02• Indirects $ 3,200 $0.10 $ 2.73• Sub-total $25,350 $0.86 $23.49• Owner, misc. $ 3,042 $0.10 $ 2.82• Total installed $28,392 $0.96 $26.31
Cost / kW $5,678 $4,458 $4,385
Source : NREL, adjusted by Levitan & Associates, Inc.Consistent with MA DOER data for Qualified Solar Projects as of Dec 22, 2011.Informal discussions indicate 2012 commercial / utility costs could be $4,000/kW.
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MA Residential Solar – Costs and Revenues 5 kW Behind-the-Meter
Capital Cost• Cost estimate $28,392• Federal 30% solar tax credit $ 8,518• MA solar rebate (max) $ 4,250• Net cost $15,624
Annual Revenues• Energy gen @ 17% c.f. 7,400 kWh/yr• Savings @ 15.3¢/kWh* $1,142 / yr• SREC rev.s @ $300/MWh $2,234 / yr• Total (first year) $3,376 / yr
* Assumes full retail value of solar generation
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MA Residential Solar – Capital Cost Flows
Contractor
Tax Credit: $8,518
MA Rebate: $4,250
Equipment
$10,050Pr
ofits
and
Sal
ary
$4,4
45
Equi
pmen
t $4
,326
Labo
r $8
,673
Tota
l Cos
ts $
28,3
92
Sale
s Ta
x $8
98
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MA Commercial Solar – Costs and Revenues 216 kW Behind-the-Meter
Capital Cost• Cost estimate $ 962,842• Federal 30% solar tax credit $ 288,852• MA solar rebate (max) $ 2,250 • Net cost $ 671,739
Annual Revenues• Energy gen @ 17% c.f. 321.7 MWh/yr• Savings @ 9.42¢/kWh* $ 30,301 / yr• SREC rev.s @ $300/MWh $ 96,500 / yr• Total (first year) $ 126,801 / yr
* Assumes full retail value of solar generation
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MA Commercial Solar – Capital Cost Flows
Contractor
Tax Credit: $288,852
MA Rebate: $2,250
Equipment
$399,600Pr
ofits
and
Sal
ary
$115
,213
Equi
pmen
t $1
58,8
48
Labo
r $2
54,2
78
Tota
l Cos
ts $
962,
842
Sale
s Ta
x $3
4,90
3
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MA Utility-Scale Solar – Costs and Revenues 6 MW Interconnected to the Grid
Capital Cost• Cost estimate $ 26.31 million• Federal 30% solar tax credit $ 7.89 million• MA solar rebate (max) $ 0.00 million• Net cost $ 18.42 million
Annual Revenues• Energy gen @ 17% c.f. 8,935.2 MWh/yr• Energy rev.s @ 3.27 ¢/kWh* $ 292,168 / yr• SREC rev.s @ $300/MWh $2,680,560 / yr• Total (first year) $2,972,728 / yr
* Assumes wholesale value of solar generation
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MA Utility-Scale Solar – Capital Cost Flows
Contractor
Tax Credit: $7.89
MA Rebate: $0.00
Equipment
$10.62Pr
ofits
and
Sal
ary
$2.8
5
Equi
pmen
t $5
.37
Labo
r $6
.47
Tota
l Cos
ts $
26.3
1
Sale
s Ta
x $1
.00
Note: $ millions
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MA Solar Development – Conclusions Wholesale Power Market Impacts
• Complicated combination of commitment and dispatch changes• About 60% of energy savings in MA• Wind expected to grow but require load-following and reserves• Solar relatively small with complex load impacts
Best estimated by chronological dispatch simulation models
Socio-Economic Impacts • Can’t ignore jobs, local spending, property taxes, etc.• Difficult to “follow the money” in-state v out-of-state
Best estimated by economic input-output models
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Appendix Solar PV Generation Profiles
• Hartford• Boston
Solar PV Capacity Factors• Hartford• Boston
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Solar PV Generation Profile - Hartford
Source: ISONE Scenario Analysis April 2, 2007
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Solar PV Generation Profile - Boston
Source: ISONE Scenario Analysis April 2, 2007
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Solar PV Capacity Factors
Source: ISONE Scenario Analysis April 2, 2007