potential economic benefits of configuring superconducting technologies in the florida grid eucas...
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Potential Economic Benefits of Configuring Superconducting Technologies in the Florida Grid
EUCAS 2003
supported by the US Office of Naval Research
Tim Lynch & Justin SchwartzCenter for Advanced Power Systems (CAPS)Florida State University - Tallahassee, Florida
Outline
Center for Advanced Power Systems Electrical grid problems Superconducting technologies – potential benefits Case study: Potential value of Superconducting technologies to Florida
Center for Advanced Power Systems at Florida State University
Center for Advanced Power Systems (CAPS) is an outgrowth from the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory
Established ~2001; Occupied new building in January 2003
Mission is R&D and Systems Engineering of new technologies for electric power systems
Real-time simulations with hardware-in-the-loop
Systems testing & development (AMSC motor; LTS SMES, HTS transformer)
Critical materials R&D for systems (e.g., AC losses and electromechanical behavior of HTS materials)
Primary funding from Office of Naval Research for all-electric ship program
Assessing the Problem
Demand for electricity has increased significantly and will continue into the future. US and Florida electricity infrastructure needs modernization.Deregulation has slowed transmission investment across the US. The result is congestion and a growing number of costly blackouts.
Historical & Projected World Energy Usage & Population
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10
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1950 2000 2020 2050
Population(Billions)
ElectricityConsumption(trillion kWh)
From: Electricity Technology Roadmap: 1999 Summary and Synthesis, (1999).
What was the cost of the great 2003 North East Blackout?
Initial estimates suggest that total Initial estimates suggest that total costs exceedcosts exceed $6 to $30 billion$6 to $30 billion (Includes individual & business losses) (Includes individual & business losses)
Ref: Associated Press: Aug 20, 2003Ref: Associated Press: Aug 20, 2003
Under-investment in the US Electric Transmission Grid
• Attention to future needs of the US grid is insufficient– 94% of outages attributed to poor distribution– Demand estimated to increase by 9% through 2004;
only a 3% transmission increase is planned– No major new investments in the last 15 years– Majority of transmission lines are over 20 years old– Average transmission project payback is 28.5 year– $2 billion annually spent on new transmission lines in
1998… down by 33% from 1990
Source: Edison Electric Institute
What Types of Superconducting Equipment Can Help Us?
Underground transmission cables Fault current limiters Transformers Motors SMES, Generators, etc.
Expected Benefits of Superconducting Power Equipment
Decreased equipment size and weight drives interest in the US Navy
Improved stability, reliability, and power quality, efficiency deferred investment in new electricity generation plant
Flexible electricity dispatch and load management
Increased power transmission over existing rights-of-way
Removal of existing pollution factors including: soil and water contamination from oil leaks & decreased emission
Other…
Civilian Impact of CAPS Superconductivity Applications
Utilities• Higher density transmission uses & higher
economic productivity• Reduced environmental impact
Industrial More cost effective industrial processes:
• Manufacturing & energy production • Electrical storage, transmission and expansion
TransportationMore cost effective electrical transportation:• High Speed Rail & MAGLEV technologies • Electric car / bus• Ship
Advantages of Superconducting Underground Transmission Cables
1.4 acres per mile right of way versus 14 acres for conventional cableNo property devaluationNo environmental degradationLarger current with lower resistive losses Fewer citizen resistance & protests
Advantages of Superconducting Fault Current Limiters
Detects surges of power and redirects it to superconducting coils where it is absorbed at a considerably higher ratio than non superconducting controllersRequires minimal maintenanceAllows utilities to increase line power capacity
Advantages of Superconducting Transformers
30% reduction in total losses45% reduction in weight20%* reduction in cost of ownershipExtended overload capacityNo fire or environmental problems associated with insulating oil
* These advantages are based on a 100 MVA transformer with HTS wire providing a critical current density of 10 kA/cm2 and AC losses of 0.25 mW/A-m in a parallel field of 0.1 tesla. Source: ASI,2003.
Advantages of Superconducting Motors
Increased machine efficiencyAs much as 50% reduction in total lossesSmaller in sizeLower life cycle costs
Benefits of Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES)
High Performance
Improved Power Quality
Ease of Installation
Flexibility
Lower Cost Option
6,000
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8,000
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10,000
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12,000
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14,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2010 (EST)
$-
$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
LINE COSTLINE MILES
Growth in Florida Electrical Transmission Line Miles and Statewide Costs
Cost
Line Miles
Potential Superconducting Technologies Economic Gains to the Florida and US Economy
Potential for greater economic productivity from investing in HTS in the Florida grid.
Total economic losses from the North East Black out – losses from lack of investments in the grid.
Net annual employment increase of 9,889, for 2006 through 2025 (With the 2.5% growth rate). Florida GRP will annually increase by $500 million for 2006 through 2025. Real disposable income will annually increase by $300 million for 2006 through 2025.
Source: CEFA/FSU, Governor’s 2020 Energy Task Force Report (see www.cefa.fsu.edu)
Results of Growth in Economic Productivity from Use of Superconducting Technologies in Florida
Loss in employment of 763,188 jobs.
Drop in wages and other earnings of $32.5 billion.
Reduction in Gross Regional Product of $52 billion.
* Simulated with the IMPLAN Economic Impact Model, CEFA/FSU, Sept 2003)
Estimated Economic Losses from the North East Blackout Simulated for the US Electrical Grid and Economy*
Conclusions
Shortfalls in investment in the US electrical grid result in very costly economic and other losses. CAPS research on Superconducting technologies hold considerable promise for commercial applications.Deployment of these technologies hold promise to:
Increase economic productivity Reduce economic disruption and associated economic and other losses regionally and nationally.