LONG TERM CHALLENGES IN POST CONFLICT REHABILITATION

DR TUGHRAL YAMINASSOCIATE DEAN

CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE & STABILITY (CIPS)

CHALLENGES IN THE CONFLICT CYCLE

PRECONFLICT

CONFLICT

POST CONFLICT

REHABSHORT TERM

REHABLONGTERM

EXPERT GROUP MEETING ON CONFLICT PREVENTION, PEACEBUILDING &

DEVELOPMENT 15 NOVEMBER 2004 UN HEADQUARTERS NEW YORK

THE ROOTS OF CONTEMPORARY VIOLENT CONFLICTS ARE FREQUENTLY TRACED TO SOCIAL & ECONOMIC FACTORS: • A LOW OR DECLINING PER CAPITA INCOME• UNEQUAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE REWARDS OF THE

EXPLOITATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES • MARGINALIZATION AND EXCLUSION ETC. POST-CONFLICT PEACE BUILDING & DEVELOPMENT MUST ADDRESS THOSE THREATS TO SECURITY THAT GAVE RISE TO THE CONFLICTS IN THE FIRST PLACE TO ENSURE THAT THEY DO NOT RECUR

AREAS OF FOCUS IN POST-CONFLICT PEACEBUILDING

• RESTORATION OF LAW & ORDER, SECURITY & PACIFICATION OF HOSTILE TERRITORIES;

• ESTABLISHMENT OF INTERIM GOVERNANCE INCLUDING LAW-MAKING, ADJUDICATION, ENFORCEMENT, AS WELL AS POLICY AND IMPLEMENTATION INSTITUTIONS;

• RE-INTEGRATION & RESETTLEMENT OF REFUGEES & IDPs; • RECONSTRUCTION & REHABILITATION OF DAMAGED

INFRASTRUCTURE; • RE-IGNITION OF THE ECONOMIC ENGINE TO FACILITATE

RESUSCITATION OF FULL-SCALE ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES & SETTING THE COUNTRY ON A PATH TO PEACEFUL & INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT.

MULTI DIMENSIONAL APPROACH• WITH THE GROWING RECOGNITION OF THE MULTIDIMENSIONAL

NATURE OF POST-CONFLICT PEACE BUILDING, THERE HAS BEEN A PROGRESSIVE MOVE TO BUILD MULTIDISCIPLINARY, COMPREHENSIVE AND INTEGRATED APPROACHES THAT NOT ONLY ENSURE A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM EMERGENCY RELIEF TO LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO PUTS IN PLACE A LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK.

• AS THE GROUNDWORK FOR LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT BEGINS AT THE EARLIEST STAGES FOLLOWING A CONFLICT, UN DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC & SOCIAL AFFAIRS (DESA) COULD, IN CLOSE COOPERATION WITH OTHER PARTS OF THE UN SYSTEM CONTRIBUTE TO EFFORTS AT DEVELOPING SUCH FRAMEWORKS AND PROMOTE A LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE.

RESTORATION OF ORDER & SECURITY

• PACIFICATION MEASURES GENERALLY COMMENCE WITH THE DEPLOYMENT OF SUBSTANTIAL MILITARY FORCE, THE CAUSE OF PEACE AND ORDER CAN ONLY BE FULLY SERVED IF ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CAPACITY FOR LONG-TERM, ROUTINE LAW ENFORCEMENT BY NATIONALS OF THE COUNTRY.

• DEMOBILIZATION AND DISARMAMENT OF FORMER COMBATANTS AND THE ATTEMPT TO REINTEGRATE (DDR) THEM INTO SOCIETY IS PART OF THE PROCESS OF RESTORING ORDER AND SECURITY.

ESTABLISHMENT OF INTERIM GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS

• IMPROVING CIVIL SERVICE EFFECTIVENESS I.E. ABILITY TO DELIVERY BASIC SERVICES;

• ENHANCING THE CAPACITY OF LINE MINISTRIES AND SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS TO IMPLEMENT BASIC DECISIONS;

• REVITALIZING THE BUDGET PREPARATION, BOOK-KEEPING, AND FINANCIAL REPORTING PROCESSES;

• MOBILIZING TAX REVENUE, AND ENSURING PROMPT LODGMENT OF PROCEEDS IN THE NATIONAL TREASURY;

• RESTORING THE PUBLIC SERVICE’S INSTITUTIONAL MEMORY THROUGH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF OPERATIONAL RECORD-KEEPING AND ARCHIVING SYSTEMS; AND

• ENACTING A NEW TAX AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LAW, AND THE ANCILLARY RULES AND REGULATIONS.

RE-INTEGRATION & RESETTLEMENT OF REFUGEES AND IDPS & MANAGEMENT OF EMERGENCY RELIEF

OPERATIONS

• AS TERRITORIES ARE SECURED, & THE BASIC GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS ARE IN PLACE TO PERFORM ESSENTIAL FUNCTIONS, ATTENTION CAN BE SHIFTED TO SUCH PRESSING ISSUES AS THE RESETTLEMENT & REHABILITATION OF REFUGEES AND IDPs, INCLUDING VICTIMS OF VIOLENCE & OF PROVISION OF EMERGENCY RELIEF ASSISTANCE

• CRITICAL TO THE GOAL OF REINTEGRATION ARE EFFORTS TOWARDS SKILLS DEVELOPMENT & YOUTH EMPLOYMENT

• THE KEY CHALLENGE IN HANDLING EMERGENCY RELIEF OPERATIONS IS DEVELOPING THE CAPACITY OF DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES NOT ONLY TO WORK IN TANDEM, BUT TO PLAN, SEQUENCE, AND COORDINATE THE OPERATIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL STAKEHOLDERS, PARTICULARLY, THE REFUGEES, THE REFUGEES’ FORMER HOST-COMMUNITIES, & THEIR HOME GOVERNMENTS

RECONSTRUCTION & REHABILITATION OF DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE & RESTORATION OF SOCIAL SERVICES

• RECONSTRUCTION & REHABILITATION OF DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE ARE CRITICAL TO THE SUCCESS OF POST-CONFLICT STABILIZATION EFFORTS

• MANY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, DO NOT HAVE THE WHEREWITHAL TO ENERGIZE THEIR ECONOMIES AND TO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF BACKSLIDING INTO CONFLICT

• IF SOCIAL SERVICES, SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION, ARE INSTITUTED OR RESTORED AT AN EARLY STAGE THIS CAN MAKE A VITAL CONTRIBUTION TO PEOPLE’S LIVES AS WELL AS FOSTERING GREATER SUPPORT FOR THE PROCESS OF NATIONAL RECONCILIATION

• IT IS DURING THE FIRST FEW YEARS THAT THE ROOTS OF PEACE CAN BE FIRMLY IMPLANTED

• SOMETIMES INTERNATIONAL AID BECOMES ESSENTIAL

RE-IGNITION OF THE ECONOMIC ENGINE

AMONG THE MEASURES THAT SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN IN PURSUIT OF CONFIDENCE-BUILDING & ECONOMIC NORMALIZATION ARE: • FORMULATION OF SOUND GENDER-SENSITIVE MACRO-ECONOMIC, FISCAL,

MONETARY (INCLUDING COMMERCIAL BANKING) POLICIES; • STRENGTHENING OF THE CAPACITY OF LAW-ENFORCEMENT AND JUDICIAL AGENCIES; • IMPLEMENTATION OF TRADE POLICIES AIMED AT THE INTEGRATION OF THE COUNTRY

INTO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY; • INCULCATION OF SERVICE-DELIVERY, “CUSTOMER-CARING”, AND INVESTOR-FRIENDLY

ATTITUDES IN ALL CADRES OF THE PUBLIC SERVICE; • PROVISION OF FINANCIAL, TECHNICAL ADVISORY, AND INFORMATION SERVICES TO

SMALL- AND MEDIUM-SCALE ENTERPRISE, INCLUDING ENTERPRISES RUN BY WOMEN; AND

• PROVISION OF SUNDRY “MATCH-MAKING” SERVICES TO LINK DOMESTIC WITH FOREIGN INVESTORS, & LOCAL PRODUCERS, INCLUDING WOMEN PRODUCERS, WITH THE WORLD MARKET

POST CONFLICT REHABILITATION CHALLENGES IN PAKISTAN

• ONGOING COUNTER INSURGENCY CAMPAIGN ZARB-I-AZAB• LARGE REFUGEE POPULATION

– PAKISTAN HOSTS ALMOST 1.5 MILLION REGISTERED AFGHAN REFUGEES - STILL THE LARGEST PROTRACTED REFUGEE POPULATION GLOBALLY

– ACCORDING TO UNHCR, IN AUGUST 2014, THERE WERE 714,548 REGISTERED INTERNALLY DISPLACED PEOPLE (IDPS) IN NEED OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE DUE TO THE ONGOING SECURITY OPERATIONS IN THE FEDERALLY ADMINISTERED TRIBAL AREAS (FATA) AND KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

– THE NORTH WAZIRISTAN EMERGENCY HAS FURTHER DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 500,000 PEOPLE

– ACCORDING TO INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT MONITORING CENTER (IDMC) AS OF JULY 2015, THERE WERE MORE THAN 1.8 MILLION PEOPLE DISPLACED BY INSURGENCY, COUNTER-INSURGENCY AND OTHER RELATED VIOLENCE IN PAKISTAN

PAKISTANI AGENCIES INVOLVED IN POST CONFLICT REHABILITATION

• NATIONAL & PROVINCIAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY (NDMA & PDMA)

• MINISTRY OF STATES & FRONTIER REGIONS (SAFRON)

• CHIEF COMMISSIONERATE FOR AFGHAN REFUGEES

• MINISTRY OF INTERIOR & NARCOTICS CONTROL• MINISTRY OF DEFENCE• ARMED FORCES OF PAKISTAN

WE DON’T WANT THIS TO REMAIN FOREVER?

PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE

• RESTORING LAW & ORDER • THE RETURN OF THE REFUGEES & IDPs TO

THEIR HOME & HEARTH• RECREATING THE CIVILIAN ADMINISTRATION• RECREATING CIVIC SERVICES• CREATING JOBS• ENSURING THAT THE SITUATION REMAINS

STABLE

COST OF REHAB AS OF 2014• PAKISTAN WILL PAY EIGHT OUT OF EVERY HUNDRED DOLLARS AS COST OF “CREDIBILITY” ON MONEY

THAT IT IS LOBBYING TO OBTAIN FROM DONORS FOR REHABILITATION OF POPULATION AFFECTED BY THE ONGOING OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN AGENCY

• THE INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE THAT PAK GOVET SEEKS WILL BE CHANNELED THROUGH THE MULTI-DONOR TRUST FUND (MDTF), WHICH IS ADMINISTRATED BY THE WORLD BANK (WB).

• WB IS CHARGING 7.5% OF THE TOTAL COMMITMENTS AS ADMINISTRATION COST, WHICH IS TOO HIGH BY ALL STANDARDS

• THE MDTF WAS ESTABLISHED IN AUGUST 2010 TO REBUILD WAR-RAVAGED AREAS, FOLLOWING THE 2009 MALAKAND OPERATION.

• FOUR YEARS DOWN THE LINE, PAKISTAN IS AGAIN NEEDS $2 TO $2.5 BILLION FOR REHABILITATION OF INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPS) FROM NORTH WAZIRISTAN AND TO COMPENSATE ITS FLOOD-AFFECTED POPULATION.

• THE GOVERNMENT HAS HELD TWO DONOR MEETINGS TO SEEK INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE AND TO SENSITISE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE WORLD AID COMMUNITY ABOUT ITS NEEDS.

• THE PURPOSE OF DONORS MEETING IS TO CREATE A PERMANENT VEHICLE TO CHANNEL BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL DONOR CONTRIBUTIONS IN CASE OF UNFORESEEN EVENTS, MAINLY NATURAL DISASTERS.

• ACCORDING TO AN ASSESSMENT CARRIED OUT BY THE ARMY, AT LEAST $1.5 BILLION WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR REHABILITATION OF IDPS AND RECONSTRUCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE. THE FATA SECRETARIAT AND MINISTRY OF STATES AND FRONTIER REGIONS HAVE ALSO SHARED THEIR ESTIMATES WITH THE DONORS.

• THE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR INTERNATIONAL REHAB FUNDS IS CO-CHAIRED BY ECONOMIC AFFAIRS DIVISION’S SECRETARY AND WB’S COUNTRY DIRECTOR. AT PRESENT THERE ARE ELEVEN DONORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE MDTF, WITH THE UNITED STATES AS THE MAIN DONOR.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION