possible role of small modular reactors under strong energy …€¦ · tomsic:13th inpro dialogue...
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
INPRO Dialogue Forum on Legal and Institutional Issues in the Global Deployment of Small Modular
Reactors 18-21 October 2016
IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria
Possible role of Small Modular Reactors under strong energy
efficiency and renewable energy policies – case study CROATIA
Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić [email protected]
CROATIA University of Zagreb
Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Why specific interest in SMRs?
♦ Small grid problems
♦ Financing problems
♦ Emission-free, and carbon-free clean energy urgent and immediate - Carbon Free Power
♦ Nuclear energy contributes to the three major energy policy objectives: — security of supply,
— decarbonisation of the electricity sector and
— competitive power prices ♦ Nevertheless, the sector faces a number of challenges
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Why interest in SMRs?
♦ No problem with grid size
♦ Financing less problematic
♦ BUT
— Strong energy efficiency policies
— Strong renewable energy policies
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
EU 2020 climate & energy package
♦ The package sets three key targets: — 20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990
levels)
— 20% of EU energy from renewables
— 20% improvement in energy efficiency (decrease of final energy consumption in a period by 2020 applying energy efficiency measures).
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
2030 Energy Strategy
♦ Targets for 2030
— a 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels
— at least a 27% share of renewable energy consumption
— at least 27% energy savings compared with the business-as-usual scenario
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
EU Long-term low carbon development strategy – until 2050 ♦ EU Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap
– The power sector has the biggest potential for cutting emissions. It can almost totally eliminate CO2 emissions by 2050.
– Electricity will come from renewable sources like wind, solar, water and biomass or other low-emission sources like nuclear power plants or fossil fuel power stations equipped with carbon capture & storage technology. This will also require strong investments in smart grids.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current policy Power Sector
Residential & Tertiary
Non CO2 Other Sectors
Industry
Transport
Non CO2 Agriculture
Basis of scenarios 80% domestic GHG reduction in 2050
Power sector reduction 85-93%
Efficient pathway: -25% in 2020 -40% in 2030 -60% in 2040
Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
LONG-TERM LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY UNTIL 2050
RECENT New Motivation for Nuclear Power Development
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Long-term low carbon development strategy – under prepapration
♦ Long-Term National Strategy and Action Plan for Low-Carbon Development:
— The main objective of this programme is the development of a long-term national strategy and action plan for low-carbon development to enable country to fulfil its commitment to carbon obligations.
— Latest 2016. World Energy Resources report released by the World Energy Council (WEC) says nuclear energy: "is increasingly seen as a means to add large scale baseload power generation while limiting the amount of greenhouse gas emissions".
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Possible measures: ELECTRICITY
1. Increase energy efficiency in electricity production and consumption
2. Renewable energy sources (wind, PV, geothermal, biomass & biogas)
3. Croatian Nuclear Energy Program - CRONEP
4. Additional utilization of hydro potential
5. Thermal power plants with CSS
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
CROATIA Long-term low carbon development strategy to 2050
♦ Optimization of power sector development until year 2050 to limit emission of CO2
♦ Power sector modelled in PLEXOS programme ♦ Hourly chronological model for demand and
production ♦ Different hydrological conditions (average, dry) ♦ Horizon year 2070 ♦ Wind and solar production base on real cases
♦ Based on Energy Efficiency Programme and Action Plan for RES
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016 11
0
5000
10000
15000
S-10-2: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Load GWh
Average increase per year = 0.44%
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO2 price €/t
2025 – 25 €/t
2030 – 35 €/t
2040 – 78 €/t
2050 – 100 €/t
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Base and Nuclear forced scenario
♦ Moderate transition of electricity consumption
♦ CO2 100 €/t in year 2050
♦ Feed-in tariffs until year 2030
♦ Option 0: NPP 1000 MW candidate
♦ Option 0a: NPP 1000 MW forced from 2035
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016 13
0
2
4
6
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S-10-2: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Thou
sand
s Total install capacity MW
NE TE Plin TE Plin CCS TE Ugljen TE Ugljen CCS TE LU HE VE SE Ostali OIE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
S-11: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Thou
sand
s Total install capacity MW – forced 1000 MW NPP
NE TE Plin TE Plin CCS TE Ugljen TE Ugljen CCS TE LU HE VE SE Ostali OIE
NE1000MWin2035
PV
PV
Wind
HE
Gas
NPP
Wind
HE Gas Coal
9514 MW
12939 MW
NPP
Option 0a Forced NPP
Option 0 NO NPP in
Optimal solution
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016 14
0
10
20
30
40
50
S-11: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
x 10
0000
Emission CO2 t
Plin Plin CCS Ugljen Ugljen CCS LU Top. kotlovi Otpad
NE1000MWin2035
0
10
20
30
40
50
S-10-2: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
x 10
0000
Emission CO2 t
Plin Plin CCS Ugljen Ugljen CCS LU Top. kotlovi Otpad
Gas
Gas
Coal
Coal
Option 0a
Option 0
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016 15
43 51 55 58
64 67 68 69 72 74 75 77 79 82 77 76 74 72 69 67
84 81 79 77 73 72 70 69 68 67 69 68 67 68 70 67
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
S-11: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
LCOE €/MWh
43 51 55 58
64 67 69 71 74 76 78 81 84 87 83 82 81 79 77 76 74 73 74 74 72 72 72 71
66 71 73 72 73 72 71 68
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
S-10-2: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
LCOE €/MWh
NE1000MWin2035Option 0a
Option 0
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Long-term low carbon development strategy – SUSTAINABLE OPTION ♦ It is NEED to rethink country’s nuclear power
strategy - The need to position nuclear in context of wider energy and low carbon policy
— Low demand increase
— Economy of NPP & COMPETITIVENES ON EU ELECTRICITY MARKET
— Load-following possibilities with nuclear plants – Can NPP and renewables be friends?
♦ increasing penetration of renewables, especially wind generation, have dramatically changed the economics and realities of grid management in ways that now encourage some level of load-following capabilities for historically baseload plants, including nuclear.
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Possible solution SMR - NuScale?
♦ A NuScale Power Module (NPM) includes the reactor vessel, steam generators, pressurizer and containment in an integral package that eliminates reactor coolant pumps and large bore piping (no LB-LOCA).
♦ Each NPM is 50 MW (gross) and factory built for easy transport and installation.
♦ Each NPM has its own skid-mounted steam turbine-generator and condenser.
♦ Each NPM is installed below- grade in a seismically robust, steel-lined, concrete pool.
♦ Reduced construction time: 51 months from mobilization to mechanical completion; 28.5 month from first safety concrete to mechanical completion.
♦ NPMs can be incrementally added to match load growth - up to 12 NPMs for 600 MW total output.
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Options for SMRs
♦ Option 1: NPP 50 MW Operation possibilities from 2035. With the possibility of building one per year
♦ Option 2: NPP 50 MW Operation possibilities from 2035. With the possibility of building two per year
♦ Option 3: NPP 50 MW Operation possibilities from 2030. With the possibility of building one per year
♦ Option 4: NPP 50 MW Operation possibilities from 2030. With the possibility of building two per year
♦ Option 5: NPP 1000 MW investment as options with 1250.00 EUR/kW
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Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Total install capacity MW – Option 1 & 2 until 2070
19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Thou
sand
s Total installed capacity MW Option 1
Ostali OIE
SE
VE
HE
TE LU
TE Ugljen
TE Plin
NE
In 2070 13089 MW
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Thou
sand
s Total installed capacity MW Option 2
Ostali OIE
SE
VE
HE
TE LU
TE Ugljen
TE Plin
NE
In 2070 12869 MW
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Total install capacity MW – Option 3 & 4 until 2070
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Thou
sand
s Total installed capacity MW Option 3
Ostali OIE
SE
VE
HE
TE LU
TE Ugljen
TE Plin
NE
In 2070 12619 MW
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Thou
sand
s Total installed capacity MW Option 4
Ostali OIE
SE
VE
HE
TE LU
TE Ugljen
TE Plin
NE
In 2070 12639 MW
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
New NPP install capacity MW – Option 1 & 2 until 2070
21
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1000 1100 1200
NEW NPP installed capacity MW Option 1
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1000 1100 1200
NEW NPP installed capacity MW Option 2
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
New NPP install capacity MW – Option 3 & 4 until 2070
22
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 2065 2067 2069
NEW NPP installed capacity MW Option 3
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 2065 2067 2069
NEW NPP installed capacity MW Option 4
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Total RES install capacity MW – Option 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
23
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2027
20
28
2029
20
30
2031
20
32
2033
20
34
2035
20
36
2037
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38
2039
20
40
2041
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42
2043
20
44
2045
20
46
2047
20
48
2049
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50
2051
20
52
2053
20
54
2055
20
56
2057
20
58
2059
20
60
2061
20
62
2063
20
64
2065
20
66
2067
20
68
2069
20
70
Opcija 1 Opcija 2 Opcija 3 Opcija 4 Opcija 5
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
RES in Feed in MW – Option 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
24
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Thou
sand
s
RES in Feed in MW
VE SE Ostali OIE
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Structure of electricity generation GWh – Option 1 & 2
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Thou
sand
s
Total generation GWh Option 1
Ostali OIE SE VE HE TE LU TE Ugljen TE Plin NE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Thou
sand
s Total generation GWh Option 2
Ostali OIE SE VE HE TE LU TE Ugljen TE Plin NE
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Structure of electricity generation GWh – Option 3 & 4
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Thou
sand
s Total generation GWh Option 3
Ostali OIE SE
VE
HE
TE LU
TE Ugljen
TE Plin
NE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Thou
sand
s Total generation GWh Option 4
Ostali OIE
SE
VE
HE
TE LU
TE Ugljen
TE Plin
NE
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Capacity factor different technologies Option 1 & 2
27
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Technology cap. fac. Option 1
NE
TE Plin
TE Ugljen
TE LU
HE
VE
SE
Ostali OIE
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Technology cap. fac. Option 2
NE
TE Plin
TE Ugljen
TE LU
HE
VE
SE
Ostali OIE
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Capacity factor different technologies Option 3 & 4
28
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Technology cap. fac. Option 3
NE
TE Plin
TE Ugljen
TE LU
HE
VE
SE
Ostali OIE
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Technology cap. fac. Option 4
NE
TE Plin
TE Ugljen
TE LU
HE
VE
SE
Ostali OIE
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Average cap. factor for new NPPs – Option 1 & 2
29
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
New NPPs cap. fac. Option 1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
New NPPs cap. fac. Option 2
Average= 42%
Average= 42%
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Average cap. factor for new NPPs – Option 3 & 4,
30
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
New NPPs cap. fac. Option 3
New NPPs
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
New NPPs cap. fac. Option 4
Average= 44%
Average= 38%
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Emission CO2 Mt – Option 1 & 2
31
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mill
ions
CO2 EMISSIONS t Option 1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mill
ions
CO2 EMISSIONS t Option 2
Average= 1.39
Average= 1.35
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Emission CO2 Mt – Option 3 & 4
32
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Mill
ions
CO2 EMISSIONS t Option 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mill
ions
CO2 EMISSIONS t Option 4
Average= 1.28
Average= 1.36
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Total emission CO2 t – Option 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
33
78,087,290.02
75,586,184.90 76,163,734.53
71,686,196.26 72,303,274.89
68,000,000
70,000,000
72,000,000
74,000,000
76,000,000
78,000,000
80,000,000
Opcija 1 Opcija 2 Opcija 3 Opcija 4 Opcija 5
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
LCOE €/MWh – Option 1 & 2
34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 LCOE €/MWh
Option 1
Average= 62.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2027
20
28
2029
20
30
2031
20
32
2033
20
34
2035
20
36
2037
20
38
2039
20
40
2041
20
42
2043
20
44
2045
20
46
2047
20
48
2049
20
50
2051
20
52
2053
20
54
2055
20
56
2057
20
58
2059
20
60
2061
20
62
2063
20
64
2065
20
66
2067
20
68
2069
20
70
LCOE €/MWh Option 2
Average= 63.08
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
LCOE €/MWh – Option 3 & 4
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 LCOE €/MWh
Option 3
LCOE
Average= 64.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 LCOE €/MWh Option 4
Average= 63.8
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
LCOE €/MWh – Option 5
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 2065 2067 2069
LCOE €/MWh Option 5
Average= 63.8
Only in 2034 one NPP 1000 MW
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
LCOE €/MWh – Option 1,2, 3, 4, 5
37
62.6
63.0
64.4
63.8 63.8
61.5
62.0
62.5
63.0
63.5
64.0
64.5
65.0
Opcija 1 Opcija 2 Opcija 3 Opcija 4 Opcija 5
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
Average cap. factor for new NPPs – Option 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
38
42% 42% 44%
38%
34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Opcija 1 Opcija 2 Opcija 3 Opcija 4 Opcija 5
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
VISION ON NATIONAL PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY SIZE AND GROWTH
39
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
SMRs ♦ Need to improve the economic of SMR –
competitiveness (investment costs < 2500 EUR/kW)
♦ Enable new market-based investment ♦ Need for additional revenue not only for
electricity (kWh) ♦ Additional payments
— Capacity payment — Load following payment
♦ Ancillary services payments — Secondary reserve — Tertiary reserve — Compensation for grid losses
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016
SMRs
♦ How to finance modular NPP?
— Develop model for financing and income based on energy and ancillary services
— How to evaluate long-term benefits?
♦ Load-following possibilities with nuclear plants
— Need for detailed modelling and analysing of power plant operation (on minutes time schedule) and detail data for ramp rate (up & down) & start-up costs.
Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016