portugal climate scenarios - agencia estatal de meteorología · instituto de meteorologia...
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Instituto de Meteorologia
Portugal Climate
Scenarios
Vanda Cabrinha Pires
Department of Climate and Climate Change Monitoring
Acknowledgements: Antónia Valente (FCUL)
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Instituto de Meteorologia
2 warming periods :
1910-1945 e 1975-2005
Cold period: 1945-1975
From the 1970s onwards the meanannual temperature increase with arate of 0.5ºC/decade
Significant reduction in the diurnaltemperature range
Trends
�Annual number of tropical nights (Tmin > 20 C);
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Annual number of summer days (Tmáx >25 C);�
HWDI (heat wave).
Trends
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Annual number of cool days and nights
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Annual number of frost days (Tmin < 0 C)
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CWDI (cold wave).
TemperatureTemperature
Observed climate change inPortugal
Annual maximum and minimum temperature
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Instituto de Meteorologia
Precipitation changes have beenirregular
Less precipitation after 70’s
Systematic reduction of springaccumulated precipitation – statisticallysignificant
The reduction is most prominent duringMarch
PrecipitationPrecipitation
2005 the most driest year of the last 75 years.
Observed climate change inPortugal
Anomaly of precipitation between1971-00 and 1941-70 years.
Annual Precipitation
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Instituto de Meteorologia
Jan
Feb
Mar
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00
Palmer DroughtSeverity IndexPDSI
Slightly wet
Moderate Drought
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Instituto de Meteorologia
SIAM Project
Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures
SIAM books:
Santos et al, 2002, SIAM, Gradiva. (www.siam.fc.ul.pt)
Santos e Miranda, 2006, SIAM2, Gradiva.
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Instituto de Meteorologia
SIAM 1 – IS92 ! ��# �� ��% � � � �� � �� & � � &SIAM 2 - SRES A1, A2, B1, B2
By 2100 the GCMs predict atemperature increase in theinterval 1.7oC – 7oC inrelation to the control runs.
Scenarios Portugal
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Instituto de Meteorologia
Scenarios Portugal
Pre
cipi
tatio
nan
omal
yTemperature anomaly
Increase in temperature
Decrease in precipitation
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Instituto de Meteorologia
Maximum Temperature
(JJA)
observations 1961-1990 control HadRM2 control HadRM3Scenarios
IS92a A2 B2
Tmax Anomalies
(JJA)
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Instituto de Meteorologia
observations 1961-90 control HadRM2 control HadRM3;IS92a A2 HadRM3 B2 HadRM3.
Number of“hot days”
Tmax > 35 ºC
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Instituto de Meteorologia
Annual precipitation
Observations1961-90
HadRM2 HadRM3
Control
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Instituto de Meteorologia
Summer
Annual and seasonal precipitations anomalies - HadRM3 (A2):
Annual
Winter
Autumn
Spring
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Instituto de Meteorologia
Mean seasonal sea surface temperature - HadRM:
DJF control DJF 2080-2100
JJA control JJA 2080-2100
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Instituto de Meteorologia
Hints of increased vulnerability
Increased temperature (+ evaporation, + water demand)
Probably less total precipitation, shorter raining season,(maybe) more interannual variability
Reduced water availability, very important in the South
A higher sea level