portfolio vital statistics - wordpress.comjan 20, 2018 · 3 hour investor newsletter incorporating...

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 33-2018-Jan-20

Portfolio Vital Statistics

• Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000.

• Sat on cash for awhile then first stocks purchased in

week of 7/7/2016

• Now worth $331,163

• Total Portfolio performance since inception 18.72% pa

• Performance on funds invested in securities since

inception 26.08%

• Cash in portfolio $198 …we’re currently fully

invested


Current Portfolio Valuation.


Since Inception performance table

Performance since inception (PA) incl divs

Newsletter Portfolio (including cash)

18.72%

Stocks in portfolio

26.08%

XAOAI

14.16%

Star Growth Stocks

11.46%

Star income stocks

12.82%

Comment. We currently have 15 securities and about $200 in cash …over 99% invested.

Losers >10% -

Losers 5.1%-10% 1

Losers 0%-5% 4

Gainers 0%-5% 2

Gainers 5.1%-10% 1

Gainers10.1% - 20% 2

Gainers 20%-30% 3

Gainers 30%-40% 1

Gainers >90% 1

Portfolio comment.

• 10/15 stocks closed green for the week.

• All stocks are in hold territory…although APO looks close to hitting a sell signal

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 33-2018-Jan-20 Status of US and Aus Markets.

Green RED

USA DJA 1

USA S&P500 1

USA Nasdaq 1

USA Russell 2000 1

USA VIX (inverted (means Green is shown as RED)

1

USA DJA Futures 1

USA S&P 500 Futures 1

USA NASDAQ Futures 1

USA Russell 2000 Futures 1

Aus XAOAI 1

AUS XMD 1

AUS XSOAI 1

AUS XVI (Vix) (inverted) 1

Overall market signals look mixed to me with USA all Green and Aus being all red. I’d suggest

waiting before exposing capital to the market. If the Aus market is green on Monday….and US

futures are still green on Monday afternoon I’d take that as a green signal to invest.

ASX Indices with ROAR above 20% and above 10%

New section for this report. Here are the ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR 6month)

above 20%. (purpose of this section….if an index is going up…perhaps consider looking at its

component stocks to check for anything worth buying). (if it closed green for the week I’ll mention

it)

Indices growing > 20% ROAR 6month or over 10 but under 20%

Over 20%

Over 10%

XAOAI. All ords Total return

XDJ Consumer Discretionary

XEC Emerging Companies 1

XEJ ASX 200 Energy 1

XFJ ASX 200 Financials

XGD ASX 300 Gold 1

XHJ ASX 200 Health Care

XIJ ASX 200 Info Tech 1

XJRAI ASX 200 Resources TR 1

XMD Midcap 50

XMJ ASX 200 Materials 1

XMM ASX 300 Metals and Mining 1

XNJAI ASX 200 Industrials

XPJ Property Trusts

XSJ Consumer Staples

XSOAI Small Ords TR 1

XTJ Telecommunications 1

XUJ ASX 200 Utilities

Comment. Over the past couple

of weeks things have changed

quite a lot. Telecoms have lifted

(a little), and many other indices

that were growing strongly have

turned down. Its been a more

difficult market to find stocks

with price appreciation.


VALUE index update

Let’s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria

1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory

2. Dividend yield >2.5%

3. PE <15

4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5

5. Enterprise value above $500m

6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull)

• We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter.

• If there are many stocks here then “buying value stocks might be a good strategy”….

• If there are few perhaps it indicates we’re at the top of the market?

From this search the following stocks are possibly worth a look AHG, BKW, CSR, HVN, MHJ

Comment. Graph is pretty much flat doesn’t it. (I’m betting that one day we’ll see a sharp move…it

probably won’t be a nice day for the market…but might give us some ideas)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Search for Value count


Selling Report. Sold TWE on 15/1/2018 1,[email protected] fees $19.95

Buying Report. Bought

15/1/2018 Buy NST 2,100 @ 6.23 fees $19.95

16/1/2018 Buy SSM 10,100 @1.31 fees $19.95


Stocks worth assessing as suitable for

purchase if conditions are right this week We’re fully invested at the moment…so this table has NOT been updated…however it’s left here for

a reference in case it’s useful to you.

There are loads of things to check out on these lists….it’s nice to see so many to work on.

Basic Strategy securities

ETF Strategy Large Cap Strategy

Lincoln Stocks Strategy

Markblatt Strategy

CWN ETHI* ABC* ABC* AHY

CWP GEAR ALL ALL CCL

EVN* HACK ANN* CAR* CTX

HVN IAA* BGA DLX CWP*

IGO IJH BLD EVN* FMG

MFG IJP CCP* IRI* FXL

MIN* IJR CGF MIN* HVN

NGI* IOO* CSR* MNF* IMF*

NHC* IRU GXL MPL MIN*

NST* ISO IPH* MQG MMS*

NWH IVE IPL NST* MNY

PTM IVV LNK PMV NCK*

REH IZZ MQG RFF NEC*

SAR NDQ ORA RWC NHC

SBM* QUAL ORG RIO*

SFR* VEU PMV RRL*

SRX* VGAD PTM RSG

WHC* VGS SDA SBM*

WPL SGR SFR*

SVW* SSM*

WHC* SUL

WPL TLS

VLW*

WHC*

As you can see from the stocks marked with * I personally buy and hold many of the stocks on these

lists. I used exactly the same strategy as shown in this newsletter for my personal holdings.

As I look at this list it strikes me that (a) there are many strategies to follow to enter the market.

However (b) the most important thing is to have an exit strategy….to cut my losses when whatever

strategy I’m following doesn’t work. I simply have to save my capital to see if another market entry

works. I must not let losses run and (c). I must let profits run as far as they can until a sell signal is

hit. It means I won’t sell out at the top…but that’s also part of the game.

Also…I notice that there are a bunch of mining stocks in here of several different persuasions. Note

all of them are likely to be making real cash money and are probably worth a closer look. I must

remind myself that mining stocks are volatile…but that means I can enter the market and take

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 33-2018-Jan-20 advantage whilst these stocks have market support. I feel ok about that because I have an exit

strategy that I know I’ll stick with.

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 33-2018-Jan-20 Strategies explained. Each strategy attempts to find stocks or ETFs that meet the following criteria.

(a) Acceptable Fundamentals

(b) Acceptable daily trade volume

(c) Acceptable market support at current prices.

Go back and read newsletter Year 2 Week 25 for full description of the strategies


Bonus Charts:

In this section I’ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps email me and I might include it (no promises)

Chart Comment

MIN*

• Star Stock

• 5, 3 & 1 year returns are 17%, 46% and 58% (approx)

• Div yield prospective is > 5% gross

• PE prospective is about 15

• ROE is about 27% prospective

• EPSG consensus is about 15% year one and 60% year 2

This stock has had a remarkable run in H2 2017. If the market becomes convinced that the big FY19 will happen perhaps price rises will continue ?

IZZ (China Large Cap ETF

• 5, 3 & 1 year returns are 13%, 11% and 34% (approx)

• Div yield is about 2% gross

• PE historic is about 6

• Average daily trade about $450k

NGI*

• 5, 3 & 1 year returns are 45%, 44% and 76% (approx). (amazing)

• Div yield is about 6% gross

• PE prospective is about 15

• EPSG is forecast to be 77%

• Note average daily trade $300k approx

This is one of those financial companies that can sometimes shoot the lights out when their strategy is working. Maybe worth a look

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 33-2018-Jan-20 Parting comment

From the economist magazine.

Returns from major banks over past 5 years.

Here are 1, 3 and 5 year returns including dividends per annum

ANZ. 0.76%, 2.84% and 8.11%

CBA. 1.71%, 4.18%, 10.78%

NAB. 2.07%, 2.59%, 8.95%

WBC. 1.41%, 4.64%, 9.48%

SUN 7.36%, 5.32%, 10.67%

BEN (-5.11)% 2.75% 11.05%

MQG, 26%, 26%, 29%

CGF 28%, 35%, 34%

As you can see from above if I’d held a portfolio of the major banks over the past few years I would

have suffered with well below average returns (however 5 years ago there was good stuff going

on….) however some stocks that “are a bit like banks” did pretty darn well. A decent case to remind

myself. Be flexible. Pay attention to what’s going on. Make a decision to move when required…not

sit like a scared rabbit

What does it all mean? This is my message to myself

Looks like last year was a big one for

catastrophic losses…according to this

chart the 2nd worst ever.

Wonder what 2018 will bring. Let’s

hope for calmness in this space

Good reminder that things are

unpredictable


• Watch the ENTIRE market including sectors that might be out of fashion. Be in the market

when it’s moving up. Be flexible. Stay in whilst it grows. Jump out when it moves against

me. Remember there are many strategies to enter the market and make profits.

• I don’t believe that that I can understand the fundamentals better than the market…it’s too

complex. Instead my mantra is find stocks that have “acceptable fundamentals (low PE,

High ROA or ROE, decent financial strength” and buy them when they’re likely to go up (as

indicated by market support).

• My motto might be described as “The act of buying is at best an experiment. I’m doing my

best to find stocks that will go up, but if I fail…I shall quickly close the experiment off,

hopefully at a loss of no more than 1% of my capital.

• If the experiment pays off and the stock does experience price appreciation…let it ride.

• Enjoy the game knowing that I only need to win a few percent more than half the time and

that I know before I pony up my ante…that I will absolutely definitely without a doubt lose

some of the time and it will hurt…. But that cutting off losses will hurt a lot less than letting

em run

• Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I’m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions.

• All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees.

• Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I’m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service…it’s a great service and I feel great value for money!

• I do invest and trade in shares, I’ll usually mark the ones that I own with (** or *)…however it’s safe for you to imagine that I’m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.

portfolio vital statistics - wordpress.comjan 20, 2018 · 3 hour investor newsletter incorporating...

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