populism and global engagement europe, north america and emerging economies december 8 2016

Populism and Global Engagement: Europe, North America and Emerging Economies

Bruce Stokes, Director of Economic Attitudes

Katie Simmons, Associate Director of Research

December 8, 2016

December 16, 2016 2

Pew Research Center

• Established 1996

• Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations

• Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington

• Since 2002, we have surveyed in 93 countries

• www.pewresearch.org

• @pewresearch

www.pewresearch.org

December 16, 2016 3www.pewresearch.org

Methodology

• Surveys conducted in 10 EU nations, the U.S., China and India from April 4 to May 24, 2016, totaling 18,115 respondents

• Based on nationally representative telephone and face-to-face interviews with adults 18 and older conducted under the direction of TNS BMRB and Princeton Survey Research Associates International

• The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ±3.2% - ±4.7%

• The survey in Europe covers countries that account for 80% of the EU-28 population and 82% of the EU-28 GDP

DECLINING INFLUENCE AND ECONOMIC DISCONTENT

December 16, 2016 www.pewproject.org 4


Concern About Declining National Influence

Compared to 10 years ago, our country plays a __ role in the world today

Note: In U.S. asked about playing “a more important and powerful role as a world leader today.”Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.

46%

65

52

50

46

40

33

30

28

28

11

31%

15

23

28

30

37

29

45

43

20

25

21%

17

19

21

23

20

34

23

28

45

62

U.S.

Greece

Italy

Spain

France

UK

Hungary

Netherlands

Sweden

Poland

Germany

Less important As important More important


Many Americans Say Life Is Worse for Them Today

Compared with 50 years ago, life for people like you in America today is …

Source: Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.

44% 16% 36%U.S.

Worse Same Better


Europeans, Americans Among Most Pessimistic About Future

Note: Percentages are regional medians. Europe median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom.Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes Survey.

% saying that when children in our country grow up, they will be better off financially than their parents

58%

56

51

32

32

28

Latin America

Africa

Asia/Pacific

Middle East

U.S.

Europe


Populists More Worried About National Decline% saying country is less important in world today than 10 years ago

among those who have __ opinion of each party/support __ candidate

Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.

52%

15

46

77

43%

10

39

26

France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP) U.S.

Favorable Unfavorable ClintonTrump

Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant. In U.S. asked about playing “a less important role … as a world leader as it did 10 years ago.” Support for candidate in the U.S. is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.


Concerns About the Economy Are Shared Among Many% saying economy is bad among those who have __ opinion of each party/support __ candidate

Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.

88%

33

48

8785%

20

4856


Favorable UnfavorableClintonTrump

Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant. Response category in U.S. combines “only fair” and “poor”. Support for candidate in the U.S. is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.

NEGATIVE VIEWS OF DIVERSITY AND IMMIGRANTS



Europeans More Negative About Diversity than Americans

Having an increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups and nationalities in our country makes it …

Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. U.S. survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.

7%

63

53

41

40

36

31

31

26

24

22

33%

27

25

39

33

46

40

34

38

48

45

58%

10

18

17

14

17

26

33

36

26

31

U.S.

Greece

Italy

Hungary

Poland

Netherlands

Germany

UK

Sweden

France

Spain

A betterplace to live

Doesn’t makemuch difference

A worseplace to live


Americans Say Immigrants Strengthen the Country

Immigrants today…

Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.

33% 59%U.S.

Burden our country by taking jobs, housing, health care

Strengthen our country through hard work, talents


Europeans Most Concerned About Refugees’ Threat to Security

Note: Netherlands excluded on crime question due to administrative error.Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.

76%

71

61

61

60

57

55

52

46

40

59

Hungary

Poland

Netherlands

Germany

Italy

Sweden

Greece

UK

France

Spain

MEDIAN

75

44

31

65

32

72

46

53

40

50

82%

26

35

47

46

30

28

24

13

30

--

43%

Top choice

Refugees will increase the likelihood of terrorism in our country

Refugees are a burden on ourcountry because they take our jobs and social benefits

Refugees in our country are more to blame for crime than other groups


Populists Particularly Worried About Refugees and Immigrants

% saying refugees/immigrants are a burden on jobs/benefits among those who have __ opinion of each party/support __ candidate

Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.

82%

69 69 69

43%

24

34

17


Favorable Unfavorable ClintonTrump

Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant. Support for candidate in the U.S. is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.

LACK OF FAITH IN INSTITUTIONS



American Trust in Government Has Been Declining for YearsTrust the federal government to do what is right just about always/most of the time

Note: From 1976-2014 the trend line represents a three-survey moving average.Sources: Pew Research Center Surveys, National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times and CNN Polls.

0

20

40

60

80

58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15

%

December 16, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 17

Which statement best describes your views about the future of the European Union?

68%

65

47

44

43

40

39

39

38

35

42

18%

25

38

29

25

35

26

21

39

27

27

8%

6

13

24

26

17

21

34

9

30

19

Greece

UK

Sweden

Netherlands

Germany

Hungary

Italy

France

Poland

Spain

MEDIAN

Some powers should be returned to national govtsDivision of powers should remain the sameNational govts should transfer more powers to EU

Many Europeans Want Power Back From EU

Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.


Populists Critical of EU Power% saying some powers should be returned to national governments

among those who have __ opinion of each party


47%

60

81

37%42

59

France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP)

Favorable Unfavorable

Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant.

DIVIDED OVER GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT



Most Publics Prioritize Dealing With Problems At Home

Our country should …


57%

83

7767

6560

52

5145

4040

56

37%

12

1822

2136

43

4351

5355

40

U.S.

Greece

HungaryItaly

Poland

FranceUK

NetherlandsSweden

GermanySpain

EU MEDIAN

Deal with its own problems

Help other countries deal with their problems


Divide Over Benefits of Global Economic Engagement

Our country’s involvement in the global economy is …


A bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs

A good thing because it provides new markets and opportunities for growth

49%

57

45

44

39

34

29

27

25

24

24

32

44%

35

51

44

56

56

64

48

71

70

72

56

U.S.

Greece

France

Italy

Spain

Hungary

UK

Poland

Sweden

Germany

Netherlands

EU MEDIAN

Americans Favor Free Trade Deals, But Support is Slipping

December 16, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 22

Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.

Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a __ for the United States

5248

59 5851 50

3441

30 3339 42

0

100

Good thing

Bad thing

%

20162015201420112009


Republicans Turn Negative on Free Trade Agreements% of registered voters who say free trade agreements have been a __ for the U.S. …

Notes: Based on registered voters. Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.

Among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters

Among Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters

57

42

55 51

3231

48

3639

61

0

75

2009 2016

Bad thing

Good thing

4851

6055 58

37 39

3036 34

0

75

2009 2016

Bad thing

Good thing% %


Trump Supporters Wary of U.S. Global Engagement

% of registered voters who support __ that say …

Note: Support for candidate is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.

Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.

In foreign policy, the U.S. should follow its own interests even when

its allies strongly disagree

Involvement in the global economy is a bad thing because it lowers

wages and costs jobs

65%

56

37% 35

Trump Clinton


National Front Supporters Critical of Global Engagement

% with a __ view of the National Front (FRA) that say…


France should deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with

theirs

In foreign policy, France should follow its own

interests even when its allies strongly disagree

Involvement in the global economy is a bad thing

because it lowers wages and costs jobs

53%

78

68

43%

5347



AfD Supporters Also Wary of Global Engagement

% with a __ view of the Alterative for Germany (GER) that say…


Germany should deal with its own problems and let other countries

deal with theirs

In foreign policy, Germany should follow its own




38%

65

55

22%

35

25



UKIP Backers Very Inward Looking

% with a __ view of the UK Independence Party (UK) saying that …


The UK should deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with

theirs

In foreign policy, the UK should follow its own




38%

74 76

25%

42 43


EMERGING ECONOMIES AND GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT



Chinese and Indians Overwhelmingly Optimistic About Future


When children in our country grow up, they will be __ financially than their parents

5%

20

82%

72

China

India

Better offWorse off


Majority of Indians and Chinese Say Country Plays More Important Role

Compared to 10 years ago, our country plays a __ role in the world today


75%

68

10%

4

10%

15

China

India

More important As important Less important


Chinese and Indians Favor Global Economic Engagement

Our country’s involvement in the global economy is …

23%

25

60%

52

China

India

A good thing because it provides newmarkets and opportunities for growth

A bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs



Many Indians Want to Consider Allies’ Interests in Foreign Policy

In foreign policy, our country should …


49%

5%

18%

28%

Take into account the interests of

our allies, even if it means making

compromises

Follow its own national interests,

even when its allies strongly disagree

Don't know

Neither/Both (VOL)


But, Like Most Europeans and Americans, Chinese, Indians Want to Prioritize Problems At Home

Our country should …

56%

53

22%

23

China

India

Help other countries deal with their problems

Deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with theirs


December 16, 2016 34

All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org

Global Attitudes: www.pewglobal.org@pewglobal

www.pewresearch.org

populism and global engagement europe, north america and emerging economies december 8 2016

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