population projections for canada, provinces and · pdf file3.7 sensitivity of results to...

Catalogue no. 91-520-X

PopulationProjections forCanada, Provincesand Territories2009 to 2036

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Statistics CanadaDemography Division

Population Projections forCanada, Provinces and Territories2009 to 2036

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© Minister of Industry, 2010

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June 2010

Catalogue no. 91-520-X

ISBN 0-660-19525-9

Frequency: Occasional

Ottawa

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Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories

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2 Statistics Canada – Catalogue no. 91-520-X


Acknowledgements

It is a new team that has worked on the planning, production, analysis and dissemination of this updated set ofpopulation projections for Canada, provinces and territories. I would like to thank first Patrice Dion, manager of theprojections, as well as Jonathan Chagnon and Jean-Dominique Morency, who have done most of the work relatedto the project.

Other persons from Demographic analysis and projections section as well as from Demography Division have beenclosely involved with the projections, such as Éric Caron Malenfant, Carol D’Aoust, Hubert Denis, Julie Faubert,Stéphane Gilbert, Waldemar Gorniak, Marjorie Kirk, Anne Milan, Jean-François Naud and Geneviève Ouellet.

I also wish to thank all partners that have been asked to provide comments on the assumptions and scenarios:provincial and territorial focal points, Citizenship and Immigration Canada as well as the various internal and externalcommittees associated with Demography Division. I am also thankful to our many clients for their recommendationsand comments over the last few years.

The final version of this document has been reviewed by Johanne Denis, Rosemary Bender and Réjean Lachapelle.

Laurent MartelChief, Demographic Analysis and Projections SectionDemography Division

Statistics Canada – Catalogue no. 91-520-X 3


PrefaceSince 1974, Statistics Canada’s Demography Division has been publishing population projections for Canada,the provinces and the territories. The assumptions and scenarios underlying the projections are widelyconsulted by many partners of Statistics Canada, including provincial and territorial focal points, other federaldepartments—notably Citizenship and Immigration Canada—and various internal and external committees ofDemography Division.

Following numerous comments from these partners as users of population projections, a short-term scenario is nowavailable; all its assumptions (except the one concerning mortality) reproduce the behaviours observed during themost recent available year of the Demographic Estimates Program. Rather than projecting behaviours over a longperiod that are based on a single year of observation, the projection horizon for that scenario was limited to fiveyears. This short-term scenario enables users to consider what the Canadian population might become if the veryrecent situation continues.

The population projections are not predictions, on any account. Instead, they are based on a series of assumptionswhich, once summarized in a few scenarios that are intended to be both plausible and relevant, offer a range ofpossibilities as to how the Canadian population will evolve in the future. Beyond the fact that they serve to shed lighton the long-term consequences of the demographic changes under way, projections are useful for planning futureneeds and developing policies in response to demographic changes. Accordingly, the projections are intended fora wide range of users including the federal government, provincial, territorial or municipal governments, researchgroups, academics, interest groups, international and non-governmental organizations, educational institutions andthe general public.

A final point to note is that another series of population projections was recently produced by Demography Divisionand has been available since March 9, 2010: Projections on the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031.These projections of diversity differ in many respects from the projections for Canada, the provinces and theterritories: they are produced by means of a microsimulation method, and their basic geographic level focuseson Canada’s 33 census metropolitan areas (CMAs). In addition, they contain a number of variables reflecting theethnocultural diversity of the population: visible minority status, religious denomination, mother tongue, generationstatus and place of birth. Where possible, the assumptions for these projections were harmonized with those in thepresent projections to ensure the best possible consistency between the two data series. However, their resultsdiffer based on their respective objectives and their method of calculation; therefore, users are encouraged to beaware of these differences between the two series of projections.



Table of contentsHighlights 16

Introduction 18

Section 1 Method and assumptions 19

1.1 Method 191.2 Base population 191.3 Fertility 191.4 Mortality 231.5 International immigration 251.6 Emigration 271.7 Non-permanent residents 281.8 Interprovincial migration 29

Section 2 Selection of scenarios 38

Section 3 Analysis of the results of the long-term projections 40

3.1 Cautionary note 403.2 Growth of Canada’s population from 2009 to 2061 403.3 Components of growth 413.4 Age structure of the Canadian population 443.5 Growth of the population of the provinces and territories from 2009 to 2036 553.6 Age structure of the population of the provinces and territories 573.7 Sensitivity of results to projection assumptions 72

Section 4 Analysis of the results of the short-term projections 75

Section 5 Analysis of previous editions of the projections 77

Section 6 Conclusion 80

Related products 81



Table of contents – continued

Statistical tables

1 Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) 831-1 Canada, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 831-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 831-3 Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 831-4 Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 831-5 New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 841-6 Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 841-7 Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 841-8 Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 841-9 Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 851-10 Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 851-11 British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 851-12 Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 851-13 Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 861-14 Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014 86

2 Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) 872-1 Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061 872-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 882-3 Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 882-4 Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 892-5 New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 892-6 Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 902-7 Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 902-8 Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 912-9 Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 912-10 Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 922-11 British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 922-12 Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 932-13 Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 932-14 Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 94

3 Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) 953-1 Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061 953-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 963-3 Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 963-4 Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 973-5 New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 97




3-6 Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 983-7 Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 983-8 Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 993-9 Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 993-10 Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1003-11 British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1003-12 Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1013-13 Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1013-14 Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 102

4 Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) 1034-1 Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061 1034-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1044-3 Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1044-4 Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1054-5 New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1054-6 Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1064-7 Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1064-8 Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1074-9 Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1074-10 Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1084-11 British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1084-12 Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1094-13 Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1094-14 Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 110

5 Components of population growth, medium-growth - 1988 to 1996 trends scenario (M3) 1115-1 Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061 1115-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1125-3 Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1125-4 Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1135-5 New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1135-6 Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1145-7 Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1145-8 Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1155-9 Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1155-10 Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1165-11 British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1165-12 Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 117




5-13 Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1175-14 Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 118

6 Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2001 to 2006 trends scenario (M4) 1196-1 Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061 1196-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1206-3 Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1206-4 Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1216-5 New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1216-6 Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1226-7 Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1226-8 Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1236-9 Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1236-10 Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1246-11 British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1246-12 Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1256-13 Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1256-14 Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 126

7 Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) 1277-1 Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061 1277-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1287-3 Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1287-4 Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1297-5 New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1297-6 Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1307-7 Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1307-8 Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1317-9 Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1317-10 Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1327-11 British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1327-12 Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1337-13 Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 1337-14 Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036 134

8 Estimated population by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories, July 1st, 2009 135

9 Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st 1399-1 Canada, 2010 to 2014 1399-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010 to 2014 140




9-3 Prince Edward Island, 2010 to 2014 1419-4 Nova Scotia, 2010 to 2014 1429-5 New Brunswick, 2010 to 2014 1439-6 Quebec, 2010 to 2014 1449-7 Ontario, 2010 to 2014 1459-8 Manitoba, 2010 to 2014 1469-9 Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2014 1479-10 Alberta, 2010 to 2014 1489-11 British Columbia, 2010 to 2014 1499-12 Yukon, 2010 to 2014 1509-13 Northwest Territories, 2010 to 2014 1519-14 Nunavut, 2010 to 2014 152

10 Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st 15310-1 Canada, 2010 to 2036 15310-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010 to 2036 15410-3 Prince Edward Island, 2010 to 2036 15510-4 Nova Scotia, 2010 to 2036 15610-5 New Brunswick, 2010 to 2036 15710-6 Quebec, 2010 to 2036 15810-7 Ontario, 2010 to 2036 15910-8 Manitoba, 2010 to 2036 16010-9 Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2036 16110-10 Alberta, 2010 to 2036 16210-11 British Columbia, 2010 to 2036 16310-12 Yukon, 2010 to 2036 16410-13 Northwest Territories, 2010 to 2036 16510-14 Nunavut, 2010 to 2036 166

11 Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario(M1), July 1st 167

11-1 Canada, 2010 to 2036 16711-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010 to 2036 16811-3 Prince Edward Island, 2010 to 2036 16911-4 Nova Scotia, 2010 to 2036 17011-5 New Brunswick, 2010 to 2036 17111-6 Quebec, 2010 to 2036 17211-7 Ontario, 2010 to 2036 17311-8 Manitoba, 2010 to 2036 17411-9 Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2036 175




11-10 Alberta, 2010 to 2036 17611-11 British Columbia, 2010 to 2036 17711-12 Yukon, 2010 to 2036 17811-13 Northwest Territories, 2010 to 2036 17911-14 Nunavut, 2010 to 2036 180

12 Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st 18112-1 Canada, 2010 to 2036 18112-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010 to 2036 18212-3 Prince Edward Island, 2010 to 2036 18312-4 Nova Scotia, 2010 to 2036 18412-5 New Brunswick, 2010 to 2036 18512-6 Quebec, 2010 to 2036 18612-7 Ontario, 2010 to 2036 18712-8 Manitoba, 2010 to 2036 18812-9 Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2036 18912-10 Alberta, 2010 to 2036 19012-11 British Columbia, 2010 to 2036 19112-12 Yukon, 2010 to 2036 19212-13 Northwest Territories, 2010 to 2036 19312-14 Nunavut, 2010 to 2036 194






15 Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st 22315-1 Canada, 2010 to 2036 22315-2 Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010 to 2036 22415-3 Prince Edward Island, 2010 to 2036 22515-4 Nova Scotia, 2010 to 2036 22615-5 New Brunswick, 2010 to 2036 22715-6 Quebec, 2010 to 2036 22815-7 Ontario, 2010 to 2036 22915-8 Manitoba, 2010 to 2036 23015-9 Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2036 23115-10 Alberta, 2010 to 2036 23215-11 British Columbia, 2010 to 2036 23315-12 Yukon, 2010 to 2036 23415-13 Northwest Territories, 2010 to 2036 23515-14 Nunavut, 2010 to 2036 236

16 Long term projections of population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st,Canada, 2036 to 2061 237

17 Long term projections of population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends(1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st, Canada, 2036 to 2061 238

18 Long term projections of population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trendsscenario (M2), July 1st, Canada, 2036 to 2061 239






21 Long term projections of population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st,Canada, 2036 to 2061 242

Data quality, concepts and methodology

Methodology and data quality 243Glossary 244Bibliography 246

Charts

1.1 Total fertility rate observed (1971 to 2007) and projected (2008 to 2036) according to threeassumptions, Canada 20

1.2 Total fertility rate observed for a selection of industrialised countries, 2000 to 2007 221.3 Immigration rate observed (1951/1952 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036)

according to three assumptions, Canada 261.4 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Newfoundland and Labrador 311.5 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Prince Edward Island 311.6 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Nova Scotia 321.7 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, New Brunswick 321.8 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Quebec 331.9 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Ontario 331.10 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Manitoba 341.11 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Saskatchewan 341.12 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Alberta 351.13 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, British Columbia 351.14 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Yukon 361.15 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Northwest Territories 361.16 Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected

(2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to seven scenarios, Nunavut 37




3.1 Population observed (1971 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to three scenarios,Canada 41

3.2 Average annual growth rate observed (1971/1972 to 2008/2009) and projected(2009/2010 to 2060/2061) according to three scenarios, Canada 42

3.3 Projected (2009/2010 to 2060/2061) births and deaths according to three scenarios, Canada 433.4 Demographic growth of the Canadian population projected according to the natural increase and

international net migration — 2009/2010 to 2060/2061— Medium-growth scenario (M1) 443.5 Age pyramids (in number) of the Canadian population, 2009, 2036 and 2061 (scenario M1) 453.6 Deaths pyramids (in relative value) of the Canadian

population, 2009/2010, 2035/2036 and 2060/2061 (scenario M1) 463.7 Population by age group, observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061), according to

three scenarios, Canada 473.8 Ratio of the number of children aged 0 to 14 years to persons aged 65 years or over, observed

(1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061), according to three scenarios, Canada 473.9 Proportion of population by age group, observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061),

according to three scenarios, Canada 483.10 Annual growth of the population aged 15 to 64 years, observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and

projected (2009/2010 to 2060/2061) according to three scenarios, Canada 493.11 Demographic dependency ratio observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to

three scenarios, Canada 503.12 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Canadian population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 513.13 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Canadian population, 2036 and 2061 (scenario M1) 523.14 Median age observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to three scenarios,

Canada 523.15 Population aged 80 years or over observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according

to three scenarios, Canada 533.16 Proportion of the 80 years or over among the 65 years or over observed (1981 to 2009) and

projected (2010 to 2061) according to three scenarios, Canada 543.17 Sex ratio of the population aged 80 years or over observed (2009) and projected (2036 and 2061)

according to three scenarios, Canada 543.18 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Newfoundland and Labrador 593.19 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Newfoundland and Labrador

population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 593.20 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Prince Edward Island 603.21 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Prince Edward Island population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario

M1) 603.22 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Nova Scotia 613.23 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Nova Scotia population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 61




3.24 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,New Brunswick 62

3.25 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the New Brunswick population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 623.26 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Quebec 633.27 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Quebec population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 633.28 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Ontario 643.29 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Ontario population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 643.30 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Manitoba 653.31 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Manitoba population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 653.32 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Saskatchewan 663.33 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Saskatchewan population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 663.34 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Alberta 673.35 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Alberta population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 673.36 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

British Columbia 683.37 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the British Columbia population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 683.38 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Yukon 693.39 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Yukon population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 693.40 Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Northwest Territories 703.41 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Northwest Territories population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario

M1) 703.42 Population observed (1991 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios,

Nunavut 713.43 Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Nunavut population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1) 713.44 Population observed (2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to seven scenarios, Canada 723.45 Median age observed (2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to seven scenarios, Canada 74

5.1 Population observed (1971 to 2009) and projected (1972 to 2001) according to three scenarios ofthe 1972 to 2001 edition, Canada 78

5.2 Age and sex pyramids (in relative value) of the Canadian population on July 1st 2001 according tothe population projections of the 1972 to 2001 edition and the population estimates 79

5.3 Population observed (1984 to 2009) and projected according to some scenarios taken fromprevious editions (1984 to 2006, 1989 to 2011 and 1993 to 2016), Canada 79




Text tables

1.1 Preliminary postcensal estimates, Canada, provinces and territories, as of July 1st 2009 191.2 Total fertility rate observed (2007) and projected (2036) according to three assumptions, Canada,

provinces and territories 211.3 Life expectancy at birth in 2006 and 2036 according to three assumptions, Canada, provinces

and territories 241.4 Annual number of immigrants observed (2008/2009) and projected (2035/2036) according to three

assumptions, Canada, provinces and territories 271.5 Average annual net interprovincial migration according to four projection assumptions, provinces

and territories 30

2.1 Assumptions of fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents andinterprovincial migration 38

2.2 Summary table presenting underlying assumptions to the six selected scenarios 39

3.1 Population observed (2009) and projected (2036) according to six scenarios, Canada, provincesand territories 55

3.2 Projected (2009 to 2036) average annual growth rate according to six scenarios, Canada,provinces and territories 56

3.3 Demographic weight of the provinces and territories observed (2009) and projected (2036)according to six scenarios 56

3.4 Median age observed (2009) and projected (2036) according to six scenarios, Canada, provincesand territories 57

3.5 Percentage of persons aged 65 years or over observed (2009) and projected (2036) according tosix scenarios, Canada, provinces and territories 58

3.6 Percentage of variation of projected population in 2036 according to the adopted immigrationassumption in comparison of the medium-growth scenario (M1) 73

4.1 Assumptions of fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents andinterprovincial migration 75

4.2 Observed (2009) and projected (2014) population, average annual growth rate and components ofpopulation growth according to the short-term scenario, Canada, provinces and territories 76



Highlights

Population count and population growth in Canada

• According to selected scenarios, there would be between 40.1 and 47.7 million people in Canada by 2036 andbetween 43.0 and 63.8 million by 2061, in comparison to 33.7 million in 2009. According to the medium-growthscenario, the Canadian population would reach 43.8 million by 2036 and 52.6 million by 2061.

• According to the medium-growth scenario, natural increase would remain positive over the whole projectionperiod, the number of deaths never exceeding the number of births. Only in the low-growth scenario wouldnatural increase become negative, a situation that would occur by 2030/2031.

• Migratory increase would be the main driver of population growth in all scenarios.

Age structure of the Canadian population

• Population aging in Canada would accelerate between 2010 and 2031, a period during which all baby boomerswould reach age 65. Population aging would continue after 2031, but at a slower pace.

• According to all selected scenarios, the proportion of seniors aged 65 years or over would continue to increasein the future. This group would represent between 23% and 25% of the population by 2036 and between 24%and 28% by 2061, compared to 14% in 2009.

• By 2036, the number of seniors would be more than double the number observed in 2009 and would varybetween 9.9 and 10.9 million persons. By 2061, their number would vary between 11.9 and 15.0 million.

• According to all selected scenarios, the number of people aged 65 years or over would surpass the number ofchildren aged less than 14 years or under. This shift, a first in the history of the Canadian population, would occurbetween 2015 and 2021.

• According to all selected scenarios, the proportion that represents the working-age population among the totalpopulation would decrease progressively up to 2036 to reach about 60% and would then remain fairly stable.In 2009, the proportion that represents the working-age population was 69%.

• In 2009, for every 100 people in the working-age population, there were 24 children aged 14 years or underand 20 people aged 65 years or over. According to the medium-growth scenario, there would be 26 childrenand 39 seniors per 100 working-age people in 2036.

• According to the medium-growth scenario, the population aged 80 years or over would be 2.6 times higherin 2036 compared to 2009, and 3.9 times by 2061. It could reach 3.3 million persons by 2036 and 5.1 millionby 2061.

• According to the scenarios, median age would vary between 42 and 45 years by 2036 andbetween 42 and 47 years by 2061, compared to 40 years in 2009.



Population of the provinces and territories

• Ontario and British Columbia would show an annual population growth higher than the national average in all sixscenarios. Therefore, their demographic share among the Canadian population would increase up to 2036.

• In each scenario, all provinces and territories would experience an increase in their population, exceptNewfoundland and Labrador where a lower population in 2036 than in 2009 would be observed under thelow-growth scenario or some medium-growth scenarios.

Age structure of the provinces and territories

• The highest median ages in Canada by 2036 would be in the Atlantic provinces regardless of the selectedscenarios, while the lowest median age would be in Nunavut and Northwest Territories.

• The gap between the highest and lowest provincial median age would vary between 8 and 10 years by 2036.This gap is slightly higher than the one observed in 2009, at about 7 years.



IntroductionCanadian demography has undergone many changes recently. First, the fertility of all Canadian provinces hasincreased since 2005, as in many other industrialized countries. Second, the origin of immigrants to Canadahas changed, with the share of immigration from China and India declining slightly in favour of immigration fromother continents, especially the Americas. Also, the number of non-permanent residents admitted to Canada hassubstantially increased in recent years. And finally, some provinces that traditionally lost ground in their migratoryexchanges with the other provinces are now registering positive net interprovincial migration.

In this context, updating the population projections for Canada, the provinces and the territories is especiallyimportant. As their base population, these new projections use Statistics Canada’s population estimatesas of July 1st, 2009, and they cover the period from 2009 to 2036 for the provinces and territories andfrom 2009 to 2061 for Canada as a whole. These projections are available by age, sex and province or territoryof residence and for seven growth scenarios.

The first part of the document describes the method, assumptions and scenarios developed for these newprojections. The second part presents the main results of many scenarios of future change, providing a plausiblerange of possibilities regarding the future course of Canada’s population. The analysis, which deals with thesize, growth and age structure of the population, is presented first at the national level, and then at the level ofthe provinces and territories. The sections that follow include an analysis of the sensitivity of the results to thedifferent projection assumptions and a review of past projections. Lastly, tables presenting the results of the sevenprojection scenarios are appended (Statistical tables).

Other, more detailed data are also available in other products, especially on CANSIM on the Statistics Canadawebsite, or on a CD-ROM available from Statistics Canada’s Demography Division. Finally, customized assumptionsand scenarios are always available on request. Those interested should contact the client services unit of StatisticsCanada’s Demography Division.



Section 1

Method and assumptions

1.1 MethodThe population projections for Canada, provincesand territories are produced by means of thecomponents method, which has been used for anumber of decades both by Statistics Canada and byother provincial, territorial, national and internationalstatistics agencies to project particular characteristicsof a population—primarily age, sex and place ofresidence. Several assumptions are formulatedfor each component of growth—fertility, mortality,immigration and emigration. Once applied in the formof numbers, rates and quotients to the base population,these assumptions generate births, deaths, immigrantsand emigrants. The population of the following yearis then obtained by simple demographic accounting,with births and immigrants being added to the basepopulation while deaths and emigrants are subtracted.

The projection model used by Statistics Canadatakes account of the interaction between demographicphenomena. For this purpose, the model firstconstructs a transition matrix that combines thevarious rates associated with events (births, deaths,immigration, emigration, internal migration). Thistransition matrix is then applied to the population atthe start of the period to obtain the population at theend of the period. This stage also serves to calculatethe mid-year population for each year, a figure that isneeded in order to calculate events observed during agiven year.

Lastly, the population of each province and territoryis projected individually, so as to take regionaldistinctiveness into account. These projectedpopulations can then be summed to obtain a consistentprojection of the population of Canada as a whole.

1.2 Base populationThe base population for these projections is obtainedfrom the preliminary postcensal estimates of thepopulation on July 1st, 2009 as calculated by StatisticsCanada’s Demography Division. These estimatesby age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over),sex and province/territory of residence are based onthe 2006 Census and are adjusted to take account ofnet undercoverage by age, sex and province/territory.On July 1st, 2009, the Canadian population wasestimated at 33,739,859. Table 1.1 shows thepopulation figures for the various provinces andterritories. These estimates are also available at nocharge on the Statistics Canada website.Table 1.1Preliminary postcensal estimates, Canada, provincesand territories, as of July 1st 2009

Number

Canada 33,739,859Newfoundland and Labrador 508,925Prince Edward Island 140,985Nova Scotia 938,183New Brunswick 749,468Quebec 7,828,879Ontario 13,069,182Manitoba 1,221,964Saskatchewan 1,030,129Alberta 3,687,662British Columbia 4,455,207Yukon 33,653Northwest Territories 43,439Nunavut 32,183

Source(s): Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

1.3 FertilityBecause fertility has a major effect on the size and theage structure of a population, three assumptions areusually formulated for this component. This edition ofthe population projections is no exception, and theseassumptions are based on a careful examination ofhistorical and recent trends at the provincial, territorial,national or international level. The assumptions coverboth the future level of fertility and its tempo (mean ageat childbearing).



1.3.1 Assumptions

At the national level, the medium assumption used forthese projections is a total fertility rate of 1.70 childrenper woman, which is attained in the first year projectedand is held constant over the entire projection period.This is an upward revision of the most recent populationprojections published in 2005, which suggested a levelof 1.51 children per woman.

According to this medium assumption, the meanage at childbearing would continue to rise, goingfrom 29.75 years in 2007 to 30.17 years in 2009, anincrease of about 0.4 years. It would then be heldconstant over the entire projection period.

The low and high assumptions were set at 1.50 and1.90 children per woman at the national level. Theselevels are gradually reached by 2013/2014 and are

then held constant until the end of the projectionperiod (Chart 1.1). The mean age at childbearing alsoincreases according to these two assumptions, by 0.6years and 0.2 years according to the low and highassumptions respectively.

Table 1.2 shows, for each province/territory, observedtotal fertility rates and those projected based on threeassumptions derived from those developed at thenational level. To build these assumptions, factorsof variation were calculated at the national level andthen applied to fertility rates by age for each provinceand territory in order to reach target total fertility ratesand mean age at childbearing. In general, mirroringthe situation that existed in 2007, Newfoundland andLabrador would have the lowest fertility under all threeassumptions, and Nunavut would have the highest.

Chart 1.1Total fertility rate observed (1971 to 2007) and projected (2008 to 2036) according to three assumptions, Canada

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

ObservedProjected

High assumption (1.9)

Medium assumption (1.7)

Low assumption (1.5)

children per woman




Table 1.2Total fertility rate observed (2007) and projected (2036) according to three assumptions, Canada, provinces andterritories

AssumptionLow Medium High

2007

2036

children per woman

Canada 1.66 1.50 1.70 1.90Newfoundland and Labrador 1.45 1.28 1.46 1.65Prince Edward Island 1.63 1.46 1.66 1.86Nova Scotia 1.48 1.33 1.51 1.69New Brunswick 1.52 1.34 1.53 1.73Quebec 1.68 1.52 1.72 1.92Ontario 1.57 1.44 1.63 1.81Manitoba 1.96 1.73 1.98 2.23Saskatchewan 2.03 1.78 2.03 2.30Alberta 1.90 1.70 1.93 2.17British Columbia 1.51 1.39 1.57 1.74Yukon 1.58 1.41 1.61 1.80Northwest Territories 2.11 1.87 2.14 2.41Nunavut 2.96 2.53 2.93 3.35


1.3.2 Rationale for assumptions

Several factors were considered when formulatingthe fertility assumptions for Canada. First, Canadianfertility has exhibited an upward movement since 2004,with the total fertility rate (TFR) going from 1.53 childrenper woman to 1.66 in 2007, the last available yearfor which these projections were produced. The levelreached in 2007 was the highest since 1995, indicatingthat this was indeed a significant increase, observedover a period of just three years. Furthermore, birthdata for 2008 released by some Canadian provincesshow a continuation of the upward trend, suggestingthat the TFR for Canada in 2008 will be even higherthan in 2007. For example, in 2008, the TFR alreadyexceeded 1.70 children per woman in Quebec (1.74)and 1.50 in British Columbia, the highest ratessince 1976 and 1997 respectively. It was thereforeappropriate to take these recent trends into accountand to readjust the medium fertility assumption upwardin comparison to the previous projection exercise.

The level of the completed fertility rate of Canadianwomen born between 1960 and 1975 was alsoconsidered in developing the medium assumption. Thecompleted fertility rate of a cohort of women, such asthose born in 1960, is the average number of childrenthat those women will have actually had during theirreproductive life. This indicator is useful for developing

fertility assumptions, since it is free from short-term orcyclical variations in fertility. While the TFR in Canadahas fallen to levels close to 1.50 children per woman,no cohort of Canadian women thus far has reached acompleted fertility rate of less than 1.76 children perwoman, suggesting that a medium assumption close tothis level is reasonable for mid to long-term projectionsover a 25-year period.

Finally, the medium assumption was established inlight of the recent evolution of fertility in numerousindustrialized countries. As in Canada, fertility inmany countries has also risen in recent years,suggesting that the increase in Canada is not anisolated phenomenon. For example, fertility in theUnited Kingdom went from approximately 1.65 childrenper woman in 2001 to 1.90 children per womanin 2007 (Chart 1.2). It is interesting to note thatCanada falls between two quite distinct groups. A firstgroup, consisting of the United States, Australia andthe United Kingdom (all Anglo-Saxon countries likeCanada), France and Sweden, usually exhibits higherfertility. By contrast, Italy, Japan, Spain, Germanyand Switzerland usually exhibit lower fertility. Inlight of these considerations, the median assumptionwas developed to preserve Canada’s intermediateposition while taking account of the upward movementobserved in almost all these countries.



Chart 1.2Total fertility rate observed for a selection of industrialised countries, 2000 to 2007

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Japan Italy Spain GermanySweden France United States CanadaSwitzerland United Kingdom Austalia

children per woman

Canada

Source(s): Different statistical national agencies, Sardon (2004) and Eurostat.

The medium assumption also has the mean ageat childbearing rise quickly from 29.75 yearsto 30.17 years. This is an increase ofapproximately 0.4 years, which extends a long upwardtrend seen in recent decades. Indeed, in 2005 thefertility rate of women aged 30 to 34 years exceededthat of women aged 25 to 29 years, showing thatCanadian women are having their children atincreasingly older ages. This assumption seemsreasonable in light of the uninterrupted rise thus far infemale labour force participation rates and the evengreater upward shift in the age pattern of childbearingin some countries such as Australia.

The low assumption was set at 1.50 children perwoman in view of how Canadian fertility has evolved inrecent decades. This level roughly corresponds to thelowest level ever recorded in Canada (1.51 childrenper woman in 2000 and 2002). It also corresponds tothe lowest fertility levels recorded in 2007 in Canadianprovinces or territories (Newfoundland and Labrador,Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and British Columbia).This level is also slightly higher than the fertilityrecently recorded within the group of “low fertility”industrialized countries consisting of Germany, Japan,Italy, Switzerland and Spain. A final point is that somephenomena historically associated with low fertility arestill on the rise: common-law unions, the participation

of women in the labour force and their average level ofschooling. Possibly these phenomena will continue toexert downward pressure on Canadian fertility in thefuture.

The low assumption is associated with a greaterupward shift in the age pattern of fertility, with the meanage at childbearing rising 0.6 years to 30.33 years. Thislevel has already been recorded in some industrializedcountries and therefore appears reasonable in light ofpast trends for this indicator.

The high assumption was set at 1.90 children perwoman in light of the international context: this levelis approximately the average level of fertility recentlyrecorded in “high fertility” industrialized countries suchas the United States, France, Australia, the UnitedKingdom and Sweden. This level is also slightlylower than the average fertility recorded in 2007 forthe provinces where the highest fertility levels wererecorded (Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta).Lastly, it should be noted that this level has not beenobserved in Canada since 1972, and it is still belowthe replacement level (approximately 2.10 children perwoman).

According to the high assumption, the meanage at childbearing would rise from 29.75 yearsto 29.96 years. The recent example of a number of



countries, especially Australia, shows that a slightupward shift in the age pattern of fertility is notincompatible with a significant rise in the fertility level.Since the mean age at childbearing has not declinedin Canada since 1975, the high assumption adoptedprovides for that age to rise in the coming years,although the rise is more modest than under the lowand medium assumptions.

1.4 MortalityAs with fertility, three assumptions were formulatedregarding future Canadian mortality, a demographiccomponent that can have a major effect on the size ofCanada’s old and very old populations. In the contextof demographic aging, these groups are of particularinterest.

The three assumptions formulated suggest acontinuation of the secular decline of Canadianmortality, and hence a life expectancy at birth thatwould continue to rise in the coming years. The trendssince 1921 are clear; they show that mortality hasgreatly declined over the past 90 years in Canada.Between 1921 and 2006, life expectancy grew bynearly 25 years for females and 22 years for males.However, the rate of increase in life expectancy hasvaried from one period to another; overall, the increasehas been less rapid in recent decades than earlier inthe twentieth century, especially for Canadian women.

The method used to project mortality is the same aswas used in the previous edition of the populationprojections. It draws on a parametric model developedby Li and Lee (2005). That model is used to projectmortality rates by age and sex in a consistent mannerfor all provinces, which largely reflects the fact thatCanadian standards ensure a high degree of similarityin the health insurance plans of the provinces andterritories.

The parameters of the Li and Lee model are derivedfrom the change in mortality rates recorded over agiven period, in this case the 1981 to 2006 interval.This period was chosen not only because it capturesthe recent pace of the decline in Canadian mortality,but also because it has the advantage of reflecting thenarrowing of the gap in life expectancy between malesand females.

The mortality of the territories was projected usingthe method based on recent differences in relation tothe national average, since the populations of theseregions are too small to obtain reliable parameters forthe Li-Lee model. Unlike in the previous edition, eachterritory was treated individually this time.

The low and high assumptions were based on the 1%confidence intervals of the ARIMA model used toproject a parameter of the equation used in the Li-Leemethod. The use of these intervals yields a reasonablerange for the future course of life expectancy for theprovinces and territories.

1.4.1 Assumptions

Under the medium assumption, Canadian females’ lifeexpectancy at birth would increase from 82.9 yearsin 2006 to 87.3 years in 2036, a gain of 4.4 yearsin 30 years (Table 1.3). By comparison, the gainwas 5.1 years between 1976 and 2006. Formales, life expectancy would rise from 78.2 yearsin 2006 to 84.0 years in 2036, an increase of 5.8 years.During the period 1976 to 2006, the gain was larger,namely 7.8 years. The more rapid increase in malelife expectancy means that the mortality gap betweenthe two sexes would continue to narrow in the comingyears, going from 4.7 years in 2006 to 3.3 yearsin 2036.



Table 1.3Life expectancy at birth in 2006 and 2036 according to three assumptions, Canada, provinces and territories

Males Females

2036 2036

Assumption Assumption

2006

Low Medium High

2006

Low Medium High

years

Canada 78.2 82.3 84.0 85.4 82.9 86.0 87.3 88.4Newfoundland and Labrador 75.5 80.0 81.7 83.3 80.7 84.1 85.5 86.7Prince Edward Island 77.3 81.2 82.9 84.4 82.1 86.1 87.4 88.6Nova Scotia 77.0 81.1 82.8 84.3 82.2 85.2 86.5 87.7New Brunswick 77.6 81.7 83.4 84.9 82.5 85.6 86.8 88.0Quebec 78.1 82.2 83.8 85.2 83.1 86.3 87.5 88.6Ontario 78.7 82.8 84.4 85.8 83.1 86.1 87.3 88.4Manitoba 76.9 81.3 83.1 84.7 81.8 85.4 86.8 88.0Saskatchewan 76.7 81.2 82.9 84.5 82.0 85.4 86.7 87.9Alberta 78.0 82.3 84.0 85.5 82.9 86.1 87.4 88.6British Columbia 78.9 82.9 84.5 85.9 83.5 86.6 87.8 88.9Yukon 75.2 78.7 80.3 81.7 79.7 83.4 84.6 85.6Northwest Territory 73.7 78.7 80.3 81.7 80.8 83.4 84.6 85.6Nunavut 69.1 74.5 76.0 77.3 75.6 77.8 78.9 79.9


From one province to another, differences in lifeexpectancy would be fairly small in 2036, mirroringthe situation in 2006 and reflecting the relativehomogeneity of mortality in Canada. Among theprovinces, Newfoundland and Labrador would havethe lowest life expectancies in 2036, with 81.7 yearsfor males and 85.5 years for females, and BritishColumbia would have the highest, at 84.5 years formales and 87.8 years for females.

The low assumption would have life expectancyrise only 3.1 years for females and 4.1 years formales by 2036; at that point, life expectancies wouldbe 86.0 and 82.3 years respectively. On the other hand,the high assumption would have life expectancy risemore rapidly, by 5.5 years for females and 7.2 yearsfor males, comparable to the rate recorded during thelast 25 years. Under this assumption, life expectancyin 2036 would reach 88.4 and 85.4 years for femalesand males respectively.

All the assumptions suggest that the existing gapbetween male and female life expectancies willcontinue to narrow.


The future course of mortality has been much debatedwithin the scientific community. Some people maybelieve that the extent to which life expectancy cancontinue to increase is unknown since mortality isalready quite low at numerous ages. If knowledge,medicine and technology continue to advance, it islikely that future gains will have to be made againstchronic illnesses such as cancer, which has been theleading cause of death in Canada for several years,or against diseases that mainly affect the very oldpopulation. Others think that the growing prevalence ofvarious conditions among the young, such as obesityand the diseases associated with it, including diabetesand hypertension, could considerably slow the increasein life expectancy in the coming decades. Some alsothink that life expectancy at the population level isalready approaching a limit, given existing health caresystems. In this context, future gains would requiremajor public investment, which cannot be taken forgranted. In contrast, many scientists remain optimistic,stressing that life expectancy continues to increasedespite the high level that it has already reached insome countries. Since the limits of human life are wellbeyond 100 years, these researchers stress that thereis still considerable room for the life expectancy of apopulation to increase.



Whatever the case, Canadians, both male and female,have one of the world’s highest life expectancies atbirth. A comparison of life expectancies recordedduring the 2007 to 2009 period shows that Canadianfemales were behind only French, Spanish, Swiss,Australian and Japanese females, with the latter at theforefront with a life expectancy of 86 years. Canadianmales, for their part, were behind only Japanese,Swedish, Swiss, Australian and Icelandic males, withthe latter leading with a life expectancy of 80 years.The assumptions developed take this situation intoaccount; they propose life expectancies in 2036 thathave never been observed to date, which would helpmaintain Canada among the countries with the highestlife expectancies for both males and females.

1.5 International immigrationFor some years now, Canadian population growthhas been based more on migratory increase (i.e.,excess of immigrants over emigrants) than on naturalincrease (excess of births over deaths). Consideringthat this situation is expected to continue over thecoming decades because of low fertility and anaging population, the assumptions concerning thiscomponent take on great importance in this projectionexercise.

Both the number of immigrants admitted annually toCanada and the immigration rate have sometimesvaried considerably from year to year. For example,the immigration rate went from nearly 9.0 per thousandin 1993 to less than 6.0 per thousand in 1998, fiveyears later. Even larger variations had been recordedin earlier decades. To take account of the sometimesfluctuating nature of immigration, three assumptions onfuture levels of immigration to Canada were formulated,as is usually the case in Statistics Canada projections.

1.5.1 Assumptions

The immigration assumptions were formulated for twoperiods. Firstly, the low, medium and high assumptions

were, for the first three years of projections, directlydrawn from the 2009 Immigration Plan as formulatedby Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC). Thisrange of immigrants, set out by CIC in its immigrationplan for 2009, is considered the best estimateof the level of Canadian immigration in the shortterm. The Immigration Plan called for admittingbetween 240,000 (low assumption) and 265,000 (highassumption) immigrants to Canada in 2010. Themedium assumption was set at the middle value of therange, namely 252,500 immigrants annually.

After the first three years of projection, the assumptionsare based on immigration rates rather than numbers.Thus, the numbers of immigrants admitted to Canadaevolve along with the projected population growth.The use of rates serves to prevent these rates frommechanically decreasing with every future populationincrease, an effect generated systematically when theassumptions are based on immigrant numbers heldconstant over the projection period. Finally, unlikein the previously published projections, where thenumbers of immigrants reached in 2031 were heldconstant until 2056, the present assumptions useimmigration rates until the end of the projection periodfor Canada, in 2061.

Under the medium assumption, the immigration ratewould be 7.5 per thousand in Canada during theentire projection period, except, of course, for thefirst three years when the figures used are drawnfrom the Immigration Plan (Chart 1.3). That level isthe average annual immigration rate for the periodfrom 1991 to 2008.

The low assumption instead suggests that theimmigration rate would be 6.0 per thousandbetween 2012/2013 and 2060/2061 in Canada. Thislevel roughly corresponds to the lowest immigrationrate recorded since 1991. Finally, the high assumptionsets the immigration rate at 9.0 per thousand overthe entire projection period, a level that insteadcorresponds to the highest rate recorded since 1991.



Chart 1.3Immigration rate observed (1951/1952 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according to threeassumptions, Canada

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1951/1952 1958/1959 1965/1966 1972/1973 1979/1980 1986/1987 1993/1994 2000/2001 2007/2008 2014/2015 2021/2022 2028/2029 2035/2036

Low assumptionMedium assumptionHigh assumption

Observed Projected

per thousands

Note(s): During the first three years of projection, the assumptions are based on the number of immigrants provided by the immigration plan of Citizenship andImmigration Canada. The denominator used to calculate the immigration rate corresponds to the host population, that is the mean Canadian populationduring a given period, and not the population at risk to immigrate to Canada.

Source(s): Citizenship and Immigration Canada and Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

The provincial distribution of Canadian immigrationhas changed in recent years. For example, a largerproportion of immigrants are settling in Manitoba andAlberta. Conversely, the proportion of immigrantswho choose Ontario has been declining for severalyears, going from 60% to approximately 50%. Totake these important changes into account, thedistribution of immigrants admitted to Canada in thevarious provinces and territories was based on theaverage provincial distribution of immigrants during theperiod 2005/2006 to 2007/2008. This distribution isheld constant over the entire projection period.

The same period was also used to distribute immigrantsby age and sex. In regions that receive largecontingents of immigrants, namely in Ontario, Quebec,British Columbia and Alberta, the distribution recordedfor the province was used. In the case of Saskatchewanand Manitoba, the average distribution for these twoprovinces was used. Finally, the average national ageand sex distribution was used in all other regions.

Table 1.4 shows the actual (2008/2009) and projected(2035/2036) immigrant numbers for Canada, theprovinces and the territories according to the threeassumptions used. Under the medium assumption,Canada would receive nearly 334,000 immigrantsin 2035/2036, nearly half of whom (166,300) wouldsettle in Ontario.



Table 1.4Annual number of immigrants observed (2008/2009) and projected (2035/2036) according to three assumptions,Canada, provinces and territories

AssumptionLow Medium High

2008/2009

2035/2036

thousands

Canada 245.3 244.8 333.6 435.1Newfoundland and Labrador 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7Prince Edward Island 1.8 0.7 1.0 1.3Nova Scotia 2.4 2.1 2.8 3.6New Brunswick 1.9 1.3 1.7 2.2Quebec 45.7 39.3 52.9 68.3Ontario 107.0 121.5 166.3 217.7Manitoba 13.2 9.6 13.2 17.4Saskatchewan 6.0 2.8 3.8 4.8Alberta 23.9 22.3 30.2 39.2British Columbia 42.5 44.5 60.8 79.6Yukon 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Northwest Territories 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Nunavut 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



Immigration is a difficult component to project in thelong run. In the short run, immigration levels aredetermined by the department responsible. Therefore,in addition to looking at recent immigration levels, itis appropriate to take other factors into considerationwhen formulating assumptions.

The high assumption sets the immigration rateat 9.0 per thousand, a rate that could reflect anincrease aiming to meet Canada’s future labour forceneeds. It is to be expected that many workers—mostbelonging to the baby boom generation, bornbetween 1946 and 1965—will leave the labour forcein the coming years to join the ranks of the elderly.Immigration could serve to bolster the labour force,which will need among other things to meet the needsof a rapidly growing elderly population.

The low assumption, which sets the immigration rateat 6.0 per thousand, is also plausible consideringseveral factors. First, the economic integration ofimmigrants has seemed in recent years to be moredifficult than it was previously. Second, the rapideconomic development of some countries that sourcesof many recent immigrants to Canada—China andIndia in particular—could reduce the pool of potentialcandidates for immigration. Increased competition from

other industrialized countries for skilled immigrantscould also affect Canada’s ability to recruit theimmigrants that it needs.

1.6 EmigrationStatistics Canada’s population estimates andprojections programs identify three components ofemigration: emigrants, returning emigrants and the netnumber of persons temporarily abroad.

1.6.1 Emigrants

Emigrants are Canadian citizens or landed immigrantswho have left Canada to settle permanently in anothercountry. The number of emigrants has shown littlechange, averaging around 45,700 persons since theearly 1990s. In light of this, a single assumption wasformulated, taking the average emigration rates byage, sex and province/territory recorded during theperiod 1991/1992 to 2007/2008 and holding themconstant throughout the entire projection period.Thus formulated, the assumption has the number ofemigrants increasing from 48,800 in 2009/2010 toroughly 59,200 in 2035/2036 according to themedium-growth scenario (M1).



1.6.2 Returning emigrants

Returning emigrants are Canadian citizens or landedimmigrants who emigrated from Canada and returnedto settle there. Their number—a modest one—isestimated at approximately 23,500 annually sincethe start of the 2000s. The vast majority of returningemigrants are concentrated in four provinces: Ontario,Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia.

As in the preceding edition of the projections, theassumption formulated for returning emigrants isbased on the relationship that exists between them andemigration, since the persons likely to return to Canadato settle are those who emigrated at some point in theirlives. The projected number of returning emigrantsis obtained by applying a returning migration rate tothe number of emigrants generated by the projectionmodel. This rate is set at 44.5%, the average for theperiod 1991/1992 to 2007/2008, the same period asfor the assumption on emigration.

1.6.3 Persons temporarily abroad

Persons temporarily abroad are Canadian citizens orlanded immigrants who are living abroad temporarilyand no longer have a usual place of residence inCanada. The data available on this component yieldan annual balance, rather than a number. A balanceis the result of two flows, in this case consistingof persons leaving Canada (temporarily) and thosereturning.

Since the early 2000s, the annual net number ofpersons temporarily abroad has remained stable,averaging slightly more than 20,000, and is mostlyattributable to four provinces: Ontario, Quebec, Albertaand British Columbia.

The assumption adopted in the present projectionsconsists in taking the net annual average figurerecorded during the period 2005/2006 to 2007/2008,namely 21,180 persons, and holding it constantuntil 2061. This level is very close to the average netfigure for the period 1991/1992 to 2007/2008, reflectingthe fact that this component has undergone few sizablevariations over the past two decades.

Once again, the projections use a distribution by age,sex and province/territory derived from the averagerecorded for the period 2005/2006 to 2007/2008.

1.7 Non-permanent residentsNon-permanent residents include the followingpersons: persons residing in Canada who claimrefugee status, persons who hold a work permit,a ministerial permit or a student visa, as wellas members of their family living with them inCanada. The net annual number of non-permanentresidents increased considerably in recent years,going from roughly 9,000 persons in 2004/2005 tomore than 70,000 in 2008/2009. The increasewas especially sizable for Alberta, British Columbiaand Saskatchewan. Also, a new CIC class ofimmigrants, the Canadian Experience Class (CEC),allows non-permanent residents of Canada who meetcertain conditions to file an application for permanentresidence. This class could make the status ofnon-permanent residents in Canada more attractiveand thus lead, in the coming years, to the maintenanceof a high net annual figure. This is of particular interestin a context where many Canadians will soon beleaving the labour force.

The assumption adopted for non-permanent residentswas therefore changed from the the previouslypublished projections to reflect the recent changes.The assumption adopted suggests that the netannual figure would show a linear decline fromapproximately 51,000 in 2007/2008 to 0 in 2018/2019,during a period when departures from the labourforce will quite probably be numerous. After 2018,the net number of non-permanent residents wouldbe maintained at zero for the rest of the projectionperiod. Thus, under this assumption, the stockof non-permanent residents in the Canadianpopulation would rise from 500,000 in 2008 to justover 750,000 in 2018.

Again to reflect the recent changes, thedistribution by age, sex and province/territorycorresponds to the distribution recorded during theperiod 2005/2006 to 2007/2008. This distributionwould be held constant over the entire projectionperiod.



1.8 Interprovincial migrationOf all the components of population growth,interprovincial migration assumptions often generatethe largest variations as to the projected size andgrowth of the population of the different provincesand territories. The strong volatility of interprovincialmigration makes projection difficult; from year to year,variations in interprovincial net migration can be quitesizable and can, for example, shift from positive tonegative. Also, because it is often associated withstructural or economic factors (Coulombe, 2006;Bernard et al., 2009), interprovincial migrationadds considerable uncertainty to projections atthe provincial/territorial level.

For all these reasons, and in order to proposea reasonable range of possible future situations,four separate assumptions are provided for thiscomponent. Also, in developing these assumptions, amajor constraint must be taken into account: the netinterprovincial migration figures for all the provincesand territories must sum to zero.

1.8.1 Assumptions

The method used to project interprovincial migration isthe same as in the preceding edition of the projections:first, out-migration rates by age and sex for eachprovince/territory are calculated on the basis ofreference periods selected by means of an analysis ofpast trends. Second, origin-destination matrixes areused to allocate interprovincial out-migrants amongCanada’s other provinces and territories. Theseorigin-destination matrixes are calculated using thesame reference periods as for the out-migration ratesin order to keep the model consistent.

The four assumptions, each reflecting apast reference period, are as follows: “historical” trends(1981 to 2008), 1988 to 1996 trends, 2001 to 2006 trendsand 2006 to 2008 trends.

• Historical trends assumption (1981 to 2008)

The purpose of this assumption is to reflect broadlong-term trends in internal migration in Canada.Accordingly, the reference period for this assumptionis the longest of the four assumptions developedfor these projections, and it was set to extend

from 1981 to 2008. In particular, the analysis coveringsuch a period identifies movements that are usuallyfavourable to Western Canada, especially Alberta andBritish Columbia, and to Ontario, and less favourableto Eastern Canada, including Newfoundland andLabrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec.This scenario generates the most favourable netinterprovincial migration figures of any of the fourassumptions for Ontario and Manitoba and the leastfavourable for Newfoundland and Labrador, theNorthwest Territories and Yukon (Table 1.5).

• 1988 to 1996 trends assumption

This assumption is based on the trends recordedduring the period 1988 to 1996, which were favourableto British Columbia, with that province registeringan average annual net interprovincial migration ofalmost 34,000 persons. This is the highest figure inall four assumptions for that province. Because of thecontinuing expansion of the emerging economies inAsia and the reduced presence of the manufacturingsector—then in crisis—in the province’s economy,British Columbia has, in relative terms, been sparedthe economic difficulties experienced elsewhere inCanada. This assumption also generates the mostfavourable net migration for Prince Edward Island,Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, the Northwest Territoriesand Nunavut.

Conversely, this period generates the mostunfavourable net interprovincial migration of all fourassumptions for the three Prairie provinces: Manitoba,Saskatchewan and Alberta.


The expansion of Alberta’s economy, in particularthe petroleum industry, had a not inconsiderableeffect on internal migration movements in Canada.Indeed, Alberta has succeeded in attracting largenumbers of workers for the past fifteen years, andthe 2001 to 2006 assumption is designed to reflectthis phenomenon. Obviously, this is the assumptionthat generates the most favourable figures of all fourhypotheses for Alberta, but also for Quebec, whichexperienced strong economic growth during theseyears. Conversely, this scenario is the least favourableto British Columbia, whose average annual netinterprovincial migration was barely more than 3,000.



Table 1.5Average annual net interprovincial migration according to four projection assumptions, provinces and territories

Historic trends(1981 to 2008)

1988 to1996 trends

2001 to2006 trends

2006 to2008 trends

number

Newfoundland and Labrador -3,865 -3,698 -3,023 -2,298Prince Edward Island 48 229 -81 -570Nova Scotia -735 -563 -1,445 -2,960New Brunswick -1,015 -377 -1,676 -1,770Quebec -10,612 -9,861 -4,275 -12,274Ontario 5,774 -6,021 -5,923 -17,399Manitoba -4,378 -6,475 -4,978 -4,602Saskatchewan -5,540 -9,345 -7,016 2,860Alberta 9,304 2,540 25,792 24,563British Columbia 11,639 33,820 3,057 14,824Yukon -163 34 -13 168Northwest Territories -382 -222 -280 -321Nunavut -121 -98 -138 -224



Recently there have been a number of major changesin interprovincial migration. After 22 straight years ofnegative annual net migration for Saskatchewan, thetrend reversed in 2006/2007, and that province hassince had positive and steadily rising net migration.Thus in 2007/2008, Saskatchewan gained more than4,000 persons in its exchanges with Canada’s otherprovinces and territories.

The situation both in Newfoundland and Labradorand in Manitoba has also considerably changedquite recently. In Newfoundland and Labrador, forexample, annual net interprovincial migration wentfrom an average of -4,000 during the period 2004/2005to 2006/2007 to -528 in 2007/2008. Net migrationeven became positive in 2008/2009 (preliminary data)after being negative without interruption for 24 years.Finally, Ontario’s net migration has greatly deteriorated,plunging to levels not seen since the late 1990s, atnearly -17,000 persons per year on average during theperiod 2006/2007 to 2007/2008.

These changes are probably related in part to Canada’srecent economic situation. Saskatchewan has seenmajor development in the mining and petroleumsectors that has stimulated its economic growth. Majorinvestments in Newfoundland and Labrador havecreated a demand for skilled labour. Lastly, problemsin the automotive sector in Ontario have contributed tothe deterioration of its net interprovincial migration.

1. The scenarios are described in the next section.

The 2006 to 2008 assumption was developed to reflectthese major changes. It generates the most favourable,or the least unfavourable, net interprovincial migrationfigures for Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labradorand Yukon and the most negative figures for Ontario,Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince EdwardIsland and Nunavut.

1.8.2 Projected figures

Charts 1.4 to 1.16 show the observed and projected netinterprovincial migration figures for each province andterritory during the period from 1981/1982 to 2035/2036according to the different scenarios proposed.1 Amongother things, these charts show some effects ofapplying constant out-migration rates to populationswhose size and structure may vary over time. The useof rates of out-migration, compared with the use offixed numbers, has a number of advantages, one beingthat they take account of both the size of populationsat risk of migrating and their evolving age structure.However, because the population at risk of leaving aregion does not necessarily evolve at the same rate aspopulations at risk of coming to that region, there canbe a change over time in the net migration rate.

This phenomenon may be explained as follows: ifthe population of a region grows less rapidly than thepopulations of other regions, that region will see itsnet migration improve, since departures will declineand arrivals will increase. The opposite is also true.Thus, provinces with lower growth rates, such as theAtlantic provinces, will see their net interprovincial



migration improve as the projection advances in time;conversely, provinces with high growth rates, notablyOntario, will see their net migration deteriorate overtime. This effect is due to the fact that the assumptions

are based on constant out-migration rates and oninvariable origin-destination matrixes. However, theeffect is moderate in most regions.

Chart 1.4Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, Newfoundland and Labrador

-11,500

-9,500

-7,500

-5,500

-3,500

-1,500

500

2,500

4,500

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036

Low-growth scenario Medium-growth scenario (M1) Medium-growth scenario (M2)Medium-growth scenario (M3) Medium-growth scenario (M4) High-growth scenarioShort-term scenario

net

Observed Projected


Chart 1.5Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) accordingto seven scenarios, Prince Edward Island

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected




Chart 1.6Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) accordingto seven scenarios, Nova Scotia

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected


Chart 1.7Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, New Brunswick

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected




Chart 1.8Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, Quebec

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected


Chart 1.9Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, Ontario

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected




Chart 1.10Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, Manitoba

-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected


Chart 1.11Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, Saskatchewan

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected




Chart 1.12Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, Alberta

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected


Chart 1.13Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, British Columbia

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected




Chart 1.14Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, Yukon

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected


Chart 1.15Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) accordingto seven scenarios, Northwest Territories

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected




Chart 1.16Net interprovincial migration observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036) according toseven scenarios, Nunavut

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

1981/1982 1987/1988 1993/1994 1999/2000 2005/2006 2011/2012 2017/2018 2023/2024 2029/2030 2035/2036


net

Observed Projected




Section 2

Selection of scenariosThe purpose of the different projection scenarios is toreflect the uncertainty associated with the future. Thesescenarios are constructed by combining a number ofassumptions regarding the future evolution of each ofthe components of population growth.

The four medium-growth scenarios (M1, M2, M3 andM4) were developed on the basis of assumptionsreflecting the medium trends observed in thepast. However, they differ from each other in theinterprovincial migration assumption adopted. Eachscenario puts forward a separate assumption to reflectthe volatility of this component.

The low-growth (L) and high-growth (H) scenarios bringtogether assumptions that are consistent with eitherlower or higher growth than in the medium-growthscenarios. For example, assumptions such as thosethat entail high fertility, high life expectancy and strongimmigration are the foundation for the high-growthscenario. Essentially, these two scenarios are intendedto provide a plausible and sufficiently broad range ofprojected numbers to take account of the uncertaintiesinherent in any projection exercise. Note that in these

two scenarios, the interprovincial migration assumptionis the same, namely the assumption that is based onthe period 1981/1982 to 2007/2008 and is used inmedium-growth scenario M1.

As noted above, only one assumption was formulatedfor emigration, returning emigrants, personstemporarily abroad and non-permanent residents.The various projection scenarios therefore do not offerany variations for these components.

Combinations of the various assumptions yield a totalof 108 different scenarios. The results of six of thesescenarios are appended to this publication. However,the analysis of the results, presented in the sectionthat follows, is basically limited to the low, medium andhigh-growth scenarios.

Finally, for the first time, the results of a new short-termscenario are now available. The analysis is presentedseparately in Section 4, and detailed results are alsoappended to this publication. Except for mortality, theassumptions in this scenario reflect the componentsobserved during a single year, the most recent onefor which data are available from Statistics Canada’sDemographic Estimates Program.

Table 2.1Assumptions of fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents and interprovincial migration

AssumptionsComponents Number ofassumptions Low Medium High

Fertility 1 3 1.5 children per woman 1.7 children per woman 1.9 children per womanLife expectancy in 2036 - Males 3 82.3 years 84.0 years 85.4 yearsLife expectancy in 2036 - Females 3 86.0 years 87.3 years 88.4 yearsImmigration rate 2,3 3 6.0 per 1,000 7.5 per 1,000 9.0 per 1,000Emigration rate 1 1.53 per 1,000 1.53 per 1,000 1.53 per 1,000Returning emigrant rate 1 44.5% 44.5% 44.5%

Net temporary emigration 1

Average (20,173)of the period 2005/2006

to 2007/2008


to 2007/2008


to 2007/2008

Non-permanents residents 12007/2008 (51,090)

net reaching 0 in 10 years2007/2008 (51,090)

net reaching 0 in 10 years2007/2008 (51,090)

net reaching 0 in 10 yearsInterprovincial migration 4 4 --- --- ---

1. Total fertility rate for low and high assumptions will be reached in five years.2. During the first three years of projections, the assumptions are based on the number of immigrants provided in the Immigration plan from Citizenship

and Immigration Canada.3. The denominator used to calculate the immigration rate corresponds to the host population, that is the mean Canadian population during a given period,

and not the population at risk to immigrate to Canada.4. For interprovincial migration, there are no high or low assumptions for provinces and territories. The four assumptions are based on different periods, that

is, 1981 to 2008, 2006 to 2008, 1988 to 1996 and 2001 to 2006.



The projection horizon for this scenario is limited to fiveyears so that behaviours observed for a single yearare not reproduced over a long period. This short-term

scenario enables users to picture how the Canadianpopulation might evolve if recent demographic patternswere to persist.

Table 2.2Summary table presenting underlying assumptions to the six selected scenarios

Selectedscenarios

Fertility Lifeexpectancy

Immigration Interprovincialmigration

L - Low-growth Low Low Low Historical trends (1981 to 2008)M1 - Medium-growth, historical trends (1981 to 2008) Medium Medium Medium Historical trends (1981 to 2008)M2 - Medium-growth, trends 2006 to 2008 Medium Medium Medium 2006 to 2008 trendsM3 - Medium-growth, trends 1988 to 1996 Medium Medium Medium 1988 to 1996 trendsM4 - Medium-growth, trends 2001 to 2006 Medium Medium Medium 2001 to 2006 trendsH - High-growth High High High Historical trends (1981 to 2008)



Section 3

Analysis of the results of thelong-term projections

3.1 Cautionary noteThe population projections produced by StatisticsCanada’s Demography Division are not predictions.They should instead be understood as an exercisedesigned to envisage what the Canadian populationmight become in the years ahead according to variousscenarios of future change. For this reason, StatisticsCanada always publishes several scenarios andformulates several assumptions concerning the maincomponents of population growth. Accordingly, usersare invited to consider several scenarios when theyanalyse the results of the projections.

It should also be kept in mind that the projectionsare intended to look ahead to what the Canadianpopulation might be in 25 years, in 2036. For thisreason, the assumptions made usually take accountof observed historical trends, and not only the mostrecent ones. Users interested in getting a better graspof the consequences of the most recent changesin Canadian demography are invited to consult thenew “short-term” scenario that provides results with afive-year time horizon.

It should also be kept in mind that the accuracy of theprojections produced depends on a number of factors,notably various events—economic crises, wars,natural catastrophes, for example—that are difficult to

1. For simplicity, the wording “medium-growth scenario” usually refersto scenario M1 which uses historical trends for the assumption oninterprovincial migration.

predict and can affect the growth and composition ofthe Canadian population. For this reason, StatisticsCanada makes sure to revise its population projectionsregularly, so that the context for them is taken intoaccount.

3.2 Growth of Canada’s populationfrom 2009 to 2061

The Canadian population has grown substantiallyin recent years, going from 30.7 millionin 2000 to 33.7 million in 2009. During thatperiod, population growth increased steadily, goingfrom 9.4 per thousand at the start of the periodto 12.4 per thousand at the end. The results of thevarious scenarios published here show that this growthwould continue over the next fifty years. However, thepace of this growth would gradually slow, starting atthe beginning of the projection period. This slowingwould continue for varying lengths of time dependingon the scenario chosen, but in all cases it would fadeby the end of the period.

Thus, according to the medium-growth scenario1, theCanadian population would grow steadily, increasingfrom 33.7 million in 2009 to 43.8 million in 2036 and thento 52.6 million in 2061 (Chart 3.1). According to thisperspective, the population would grow at an averageannual rate of 11.8 per thousand at the start of theperiod and 7.4 per thousand in 2060/2061 (Chart 3.2).The average annual growth rate for the periodfrom 2009 to 2061 would be 8.6 per thousand, whichis lower than the rate recorded during the periodfrom 1981 to 2009 (11.0 per thousand).



Chart 3.1Population observed (1971 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to three scenarios, Canada

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

thousands

Low-growth scenario

Medium-growth scenario (M1)

High-growth scenario

Observed Projected


According to the high-growth scenario, theCanadian population would go from 33.7 millionin 2009 to 47.7 million in 2036, then to 63.8 millionin 2061, almost doubling in 50 years. As a resultof stronger immigration than in the medium-growthscenario as well as higher life expectancy and, aboveall, fertility moving closer to the replacement level, thisscenario shows an increase that is not only continualbut also strong until the end of the projection period.From 12.6 per thousand in 2009/2010, the averageannual growth rate would decline slightly to 11.9 perthousand in 2060/2061.

The low-growth scenario offers a different picture;here again Canada would experience growth, butwhile that growth would be continual, it would fall offrapidly. Under this scenario, the Canadian populationwould go from 40.1 million in 2036 to 43.0 millionin 2061. Thus, the population would grow at a rateof 10.8 per thousand in 2009/2010, then declineto 2.6 per thousand in 2060/2061.

Overall, the projections in the 2009 to 2036 editionyield different results from the preceding series ofprojections (2005 to 2031); they revise upward the

growth that Canada could experience. For example,the results of the medium-growth scenario in thecurrent projections, whereby the Canadian populationwould reach 50.7 million in 2056, are similar to thehigh-growth scenario of the preceding projections,which projected a population of 49.7 million in 2056.This is because the assumptions formulated in thetwo projection series are different, in light of howCanadian demography has evolved recently. Themajor demographic shifts that have taken place sincethe preceding series were produced—most notably,increases in fertility and immigration—generally pointtoward assumptions more favourable to populationgrowth.

3.3 Components of growthRegardless of the scenario, the population wouldincrease, but at a pace that would vary over time.Declining over much of the projection period, thegrowth rate would reach a plateau, then turn upwardagain toward 2054 (Chart 3.2). An analysis of thedifferent components of population growth sheds lighton the causes of these patterns.



Chart 3.2Average annual growth rate observed (1971/1972 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2060/2061) according tothree scenarios, Canada

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1971/1972 1979/1980 1987/1988 1995/1996 2003/2004 2011/2012 2019/2020 2027/2028 2035/2036 2043/2044 2051/2052 2059/2060

per thousand

Low-growth scenario



Observed Projected

Source(s): Statistics Canada, Demography division.

3.3.1 Natural increase

Natural increase is the difference between births anddeaths, and its change over time is determined bythe intensity of fertility and mortality, but also by theage structure of the Canadian population and how itevolves. For deaths, all scenarios show a fairly steadyincrease, which would slow at the end of the period.According to the medium-growth scenario, the numberof deaths would double during the period: it would gofrom 243,500 in 2009/2010 to 375,400 in 2035/2036,peak at 487,100 in 2058/2059, then decline to 486,900in 2060/2061 (Chart 3.3). The number of deaths wouldparallel the growth of the population as well as itsaging. It would accelerate appreciably as the largegeneration of baby boomers reaches the advancedages, associated with high mortality.

Eventually, the increase in the number of deaths wouldslacken and the trend would even turn downward,marking the gradual end of the movement of babyboomers into the ages of high mortality. In 2061,the generation of baby boomers will have practicallydisappeared from the Canadian population; theyoungest of them, born in 1965, will be 96 years of

age. This is a noteworthy transition; throughout theirlives, baby boomers will, as a consequence of theirlarge numbers, have greatly influenced Canada’sdemographic landscape.

If the intensity of fertility is held constant, the projectednumber of births depends on changes in the numbersof women of childbearing age. The rise in theirnumbers at the start of the period accounts for part ofthe increase in births that is seen at the start of theprojections in the medium and high-growth scenarios.Later, the number of births tends briefly to stabilizebefore starting to increase again until the end of theprojected period.

However, it is important not to neglect the impact ofanother component, immigration, on how the number ofbirths changes over time. Because a large proportion ofimmigrants are of childbearing age, strong immigrationhas a positive effect on the number of births.

According to the medium-growth scenario, the numberof births, standing at 390,600 in 2009/2010, would riseto 429,300 in 2022/2023. It would then remain stableuntil 2029/2030 and would thereafter grow steadily,reaching 526,500 in 2060/2061.



Chart 3.3Projected (2009/2010 to 2060/2061) births and deaths according to three scenarios, Canada

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009/2010 2014/2015 2019/2020 2024/2025 2029/2030 2034/2035 2039/2040 2044/2045 2049/2050 2054/2055 2059/2060

thousands

Births - Low growth scenarioDeaths - Low growth scenarioBirths - Medium growth scenario (M1)Deaths - Medium growth scenario (M1)Births - High growth scenarioDeaths - High growth scenario


In the medium-growth scenario, the number of deathswould approach the number of births at the endof the period but would never exceed it. Naturalincrease would therefore remain positive throughoutthe projected period. It would slightly rise at the start ofthe period and then fall substantially before edging upat the end of the period (Chart 3.4). The picture wouldbe substantially the same in the high-growth scenario.Only in the low-growth scenario would natural increasebecome negative, beginning in 2030/2031.

3.3.2 Migratory increase

Until the early 1990s, natural growth has almost alwaysbeen the main driver of population growth in Canada. Inthe middle of the 1990s however, a shift has occurredand migratory increase has become the main sourceof Canadian population growth, partly because of lowerfertility, higher immigration and population aging.

In terms of numbers, migratory increase would proceedapproximately at the same rate as the growth of theCanadian population, which reflects the fixed ratesused in various assumptions for the internationalmigration components. For example, according to themedium-growth scenario, the number of immigrants

would be 252,500 in 2009/2010, 333,600 in 2035/2036and would reach 406,700 in 2060/2061.

In the low and medium-growth scenarios, thedecreasing importance of natural increase duringalmost all of the projected period, that is from2009/2010 to 2055/2056 according to the low-growthscenario and from 2015/2016 to 2052/2053 accordingto the medium-growth scenario (Chart 3.4), wouldmean that population growth in Canada would relymore on migratory increase than on natural increase.In the case of the low-growth scenario, only migratoryincrease would contribute to population growth of thecountry, and this as early as 2030/2031.

In the high-growth scenario, natural increase would beon the rise at the beginning of the projection periodup to 2018/2019, and from 2037/2038 to the end.However, the share of migratory increase in totalpopulation growth would still increase, mostly in thefirst part of the projection period, going from 60.6%in 2008/2009 to 71.7% by 2035/2036 and 72.1%by 2060/2061.

Thus, according to all selected scenarios, migratoryincrease would continue to represent an increasingshare of future population growth.



Chart 3.4Demographic growth of the Canadian population projected according to the natural increase and international netmigration — 2009/2010 to 2060/2061— Medium-growth scenario (M1)

Natural increase

International net migration

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2009/2010 2014/2015 2019/2020 2024/2025 2029/2030 2034/2035 2039/2040 2044/2045 2049/2050 2054/2055 2059/2060

thousands


3.4 Age structure of the Canadianpopulation

According to all the projection scenarios, the Canadianpopulation will continue to age over the comingdecades. This process, which has been under wayfor a long time now, is integral to the current agestructure of the population, and it will accelerate inthe coming years. While cohorts that followed thebaby boom are smaller because fertility is belowthe replacement level, all cohorts are enjoying a lifeexpectancy that is steadily rising. Consequently, thedemographic aging process would become morepronounced between 2010 and 2031, a period duringwhich members of the baby boom generation will reachage 65. After that, aging would continue, but at a lessrapid pace. The intensity of population aging variesdepending on the projection scenarios chosen.

3.4.1 An evolving age pyramid

The age pyramid, which is a graphical representation ofa population’s structure by age and sex, sheds light onthe changes that the Canadian population is destinedto undergo in this regard. Thus, the age pyramidfor the year 2009 (Chart 3.5) highlights the sizabledemographic weight of the baby boom generation,whose members are aged 43 to 63. The generationsborn after the baby boomers are smaller, notablybecause of the low fertility seen in recent decades.This phenomenon is clearly illustrated by the fairlyconstant narrowing of the base of the pyramid.

According to the medium-growth scenario, the baseof the age pyramid in 2036 should be broader thanit was in 2009, and it would continue to broadenuntil 2061. The increase in the number of births,which is responsible for this broadening, mainlyreflects two factors: the increase in fertility seensince 2002 and more women in childbearing age dueto a positive demographic growth and immigrants’greater contribution.



However, the broadening of the pyramid would beperceptible at all ages, especially the advancedages. In 2036, and even more so in 2061, thenumber of persons aged 65 years or over wouldbe larger than in 2009 and the top of the pyramidwould have a less slender appearance. Mortalitywould then be concentrated at very advanced ages,

and compared to 2009, would be distributed overa much narrower age range (Chart 3.6). Thisphenomenon is clearly illustrated by the increase inthe modal age at death, which would go from 84 yearsin 2008/2009 to 88 years in 2035/2036 andthen to 91 years in 2060/2061 according to themedium-growth scenario.

Chart 3.5Age pyramids (in number) of the Canadian population, 2009, 2036 and 2061 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.6Deaths pyramids (in relative value) of the Canadian population, 2009/2010, 2035/2036 and 2060/2061 (scenario M1)


3.4.2 Distribution of the population by agegroups

• Young people

The number of children (aged 0 to 14 years)reached 5.6 million in 2009, up slightly from 2008.This was the first increase in the number ofchildren since 1996. According to the mediumand high-growth scenarios, the number of childrenwould increase each year. In the low-growth scenario,the number of children would grow until 2022 (increaseof 213,600), would then decline until 2041 (decreaseof 113,400), then rise again until the projectionhorizon in 2061 (increase of 201,300). Dependingon the scenario, the number of children wouldrange between 5.7 and 8.2 million in 2036 andbetween 5.9 and 11.1 million in 2061. According tothe medium-growth scenario, the number of childrenwould reach 6.9 million in 2036 and 8.2 millionin 2061 (Chart 3.7).

• Seniors

In 2009, Canada had 4.7 million persons aged 65 yearsor over, twice the number recorded in 1981. Accordingto all the projection scenarios, the growth of thisgroup would accelerate in the coming years. By 2036,the number of seniors would more than double,ranging between 9.9 and 10.9 million dependingon the scenario. In 2061, this number would rangebetween 11.9 million and 15.0 million.

In 2009, Canada had 120 children per hundredseniors, a figure that had fallen by half since 1980. Allthe growth scenarios adopted show that this declinewould continue in the coming years and the numberof seniors would exceed the number of children inthe near future. This reversal would occur in 2015 inthe low-growth scenario and six years later in thehigh-growth scenario. This would be the first time inthe history of the Canadian population that the numberof persons aged 65 years or over exceeded thenumber of children under 15 years of age. Indeed, thechildren-seniors ratio would steadily diminish and wouldbe between 58 and 75 children per hundred seniorsin 2036 and between 50 and 74 in 2061 (Chart 3.8).



Chart 3.7Population by age group, observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061), according to three scenarios, Canada

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

thousands

Low-growth scenario Medium-growth scenario (M1) High-growth scenario

0 to 14 years

65 years or over

15 to 64 years

Observed Projected


Chart 3.8Ratio of the number of children aged 0 to 14 years to persons aged 65 years or over, observed (1981 to 2009) andprojected (2010 to 2061), according to three scenarios, Canada

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

ratio

Low-growth scenario



Observed Projected




• Working-age population

It is interesting to see how the 15-to-64 age groupchanges in size over time, since it includes most of thelabour force and thus has an impact on the level oflabour availability in Canada.2 In 2009, this populationaccounted for approximately 69% of the Canadianpopulation, a proportion that has risen since 1995 andis among the highest in industrialized countries. Thecorresponding proportion is 68% in Australia, 67%in the United States, 66% in France and the UnitedKingdom, 64% in Japan and 65% in the world as awhole.

However, according to all the scenarios adopted, theproportion of the population that is working age isbound to decline throughout the projection period. Thisdecline would be especially rapid from the start of theprojection until 2030, the year when the movement of

2. It is obviously a simplification to equate the large 15-to-64 age groupwith the working-age population, particularly given that some personsaged 65 or over are employed.

baby boomers into the 65 years or over age group iscompleted; after that, it would be more moderate. Thus,the proportion of the population aged 15 to 64 yearswould decline to approximately 60% in 2036. Itwould then remain relatively stable around this level(Chart 3.9).

Nevertheless, in 2061 the size of the working-agepopulation would exceed the 2009 level, according toall the projection scenarios (Chart 3.7). In absolutenumbers, the ranks of working-age persons wouldincrease throughout the projected period, although atquite a variable rate; in the low-growth scenario, theywould even decrease at times (Chart 3.10).

The narrow gap between the growth levels in the threescenarios during the initial three years of projectionin Chart 3.10 is due to the use of constant immigrantnumbers (obtained from the target range in the CICImmigration Plan) that vary little from one scenario toanother. Starting in 2012/2013, the immigration ratessuggest greater divergence among the scenarios.

Chart 3.9Proportion of population by age group, observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061), according to threescenarios, Canada

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061


percent

Observed Projected

15 to 64 years

65 years or over

0 to 14 years




Chart 3.10Annual growth of the population aged 15 to 64 years, observed (1981/1982 to 2008/2009) and projected(2009/2010 to 2060/2061) according to three scenarios, Canada

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

1981/1982 1988/1989 1995/1996 2002/2003 2009/2010 2016/2017 2023/2024 2030/2031 2037/2038 2044/2045 2051/2052 2058/2059

thousands

Low-growth scenario



Observed Projected


The population aged 15 to 64 years grew steadilythroughout the entire twentieth century, andin 2009 it stood at 23.4 million. According to themedium-growth scenario, it would reach 26.5 millionin 2036 and 31.0 million in 2061. In the low-growthscenario, the population aged 15 to 64 years wouldreach 24.5 million in 2036 and would then grow moremodestly, reaching 25.2 million in 2061. Finally, inthe high-growth scenario, the working-age populationwould reach 28.7 million in 2036 and 37.6 millionin 2061.

• Demographic dependency ratio

In 2009, the demographic dependency ratio, whichindicates the number of persons aged 14 years orunder or 65 years or over per hundred persons of

working age (15 to 64 years), was 44. Specifically,there were 24 young persons aged 14 years or underand 20 persons aged 65 years or over per hundredworking-age persons. According to all the growthscenarios developed, the dependency ratio wouldincrease rapidly until 2030 because of baby boomersreaching age 65 years and smaller cohorts replacingthem (Chart 3.11). According to the scenarios,the demographic dependency ratio would reachapproximately 65 years in 2036 and roughly 70 yearsin 2061. According to the medium-growth scenario,persons under 14 years and those aged 65 yearsor over would be equal in number in 2017, and thenseniors would take the lead, so that by 2036 therewould be 39 seniors and 26 children per hundredworking-age persons.



Chart 3.11Demographic dependency ratio observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to three scenarios,Canada

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

Low-growth scenario



Observed Projected

ratio


3.4.3 Population aging

Canada has been an aging society for some time now.It is indicative of this phenomenon that the proportionof seniors (aged 65 years or over) within the populationhas steadily grown since 1960, going from 8% atthat time to 14% in 2009. According to all projectionscenarios adopted, this increase would continue in thecoming years. The proportion of persons aged 65 yearsor over would range between 23% and 25% in 2036 andbetween 24% and 28% in 2061. In the medium-growthscenario, the proportion aged 65 years and over would

reach 24% in 2036 (Chart 3.9) and 25% in 2061.The increase in the proportion of seniors would beespecially rapid in the next 25 years. Throughoutthis period at least, as shown by the age pyramidsbased on relative values (Chart 3.12), the increasewould be more attributable to the growing number ofpersons aged 65 years and over than to changes seenin the 0-to-14 and 15-to-64 age groups. By contrast,the following 25 years, from 2036 to 2061, would seemuch more modest changes (Chart 3.13).



Chart 3.12Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Canadian population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)


Another indicator of the Canadian population’s agingis the increase in the median age. The medianage increased 10 years between 1981 and 2009,from 30 years to 40 years. The three projectionscenarios adopted indicate that the median age wouldcontinue to increase at least until 2039. After that,it would continue to rise slightly in the low-growthscenario, would decrease slightly in the high-growthscenario and would tend to remain stable in themedium-growth scenario.

Starting in 2040, the relative stability in the medianage occurs following the deaths of the baby boomgeneration and hence to the gradual emergence of amore regular age profile.

According to the scenarios, the median agewould vary between 42 and 45 years in 2036 andbetween 42 and 47 years in 2061. In themedium-growth scenario, the median age wouldbe stable at around 44 years during the periodfrom 2036 to 2061 (Chart 3.14).



Chart 3.13Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Canadian population, 2036 and 2061 (scenario M1)


Chart 3.14Median age observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to three scenarios, Canada

25

30

35

40

45

50

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

median age

Low-growth scenario



Observed Projected




3.4.4 Very old age and centenarians

In 2009, the Canadian population had 1.3 million veryold persons (aged 80 years or over), twice as manyas in 1990. In all the projection scenarios, the numberof very old persons would continue to increase rapidlyin the coming years. According to the medium-growthscenario, the population aged 80 years or over wouldhave increased 2.6 times by 2036 to 3.3 million,and 3.9 times by 2061 to more than 5.1 million(Chart 3.15). These major increases are due inlarge part to the baby boomers reaching these ages,and to a lesser extent to the gradual increase in lifeexpectancy. Similarly, the change in the proportionof the population aged 65 years or over consisting ofthose aged 80 years or over varies as baby boomersmove into the ages 65-79 years at the start of the periodand into the ages 80 years or over in the middle of theperiod and finally as they gradually disappear at theend of the projection period (Chart 3.16). According tothe medium-growth scenario, the proportion of peopleaged 80 years or over among the senior population(aged 65 years or over) would reach about one personout of three by 2036 and slightly less than two personsout of five by 2061.

The sex ratio of the very old population is the numberof men aged 80 years or over per hundred women ofthe same age. This ratio has been far below 100 for anumber of decades, because of higher male mortality atall ages. In 2009, the ratio was 58 men aged 80 yearsor over per hundred women. According to all thegrowth scenarios developed, this ratio would rise andwould range between 72 and 75 men per hundredwomen in 2036 and between 75 and 80 men perhundred women in 2061 (Chart 3.17). The increase inthe ratio would be mainly due to the reduction in themortality gap between sexes.

The number of persons reaching very old ages isalso bound to increase, according to the projectionscenarios. From approximately 6,000 in 2009, thenumber of centenarians living in Canada could nearlytriple and almost quadruple by 2036, depending onthe scenario adopted. In 2061, their number wouldrange between 61,000 and 99,000 depending on thescenario.

Chart 3.15Population aged 80 years or over observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to three scenarios,Canada

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

thousands

Low-growth scenarioMedium-growth scenario (M1)High-growth scenario

Observed Projected




Chart 3.16Proportion of the 80 years or over among the 65 years or over observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2061)according to three scenarios, Canada

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

percent

Low-growth scenario



Observed Projected


Chart 3.17Sex ratio of the population aged 80 years or over observed (2009) and projected (2036 and 2061) according to threescenarios, Canada

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2036 2061 2036 2061 2036 2061

ratio (percent)


Observed




3.5 Growth of the population ofthe provinces and territoriesfrom 2009 to 2036

For population projections at the scale of the provincesand territories, there is one more factor responsible forvariation than in projections for Canada as a whole,namely interprovincial migration. In fact, in someprovinces, interprovincial migration is the componentthat has the greatest impact on recent populationgrowth (Dion and Coulombe, 2008).

The projections results show that the most favourablescenarios and the most unfavourable scenarios forthe population growth of each specific province andterritory are not always the high and low-growthscenarios (scenarios L and H), but sometimes themedium-growth scenarios that feature especiallyfavourable or unfavourable interprovincial migration.This situation is indicative of the importance ofinterprovincial migration in how the population of someprovinces changes over time.

According to the scenarios adopted for theseprojections, only Newfoundland and Labrador mighthave a population smaller in 2036 than its estimatedpopulation in 2009, and only in certain scenarios(Table 3.1). This province would see its populationdecline in three of the six scenarios, namely in thelow-growth scenario and in medium-growth scenariosM2 and M4.

For provinces other than Newfoundland and Labradoras well as the territories, the projected populationin 2036 would in all cases be larger than the estimatedpopulation in 2009. However, the projected growthrate differs greatly from one province to another, andfor a given province from one scenario to another(Table 3.2). Ontario and British Columbia wouldrecord average annual growth exceeding that of theCanadian population as a whole, in all six scenarios.Conversely, all scenarios suggest average annualgrowth below that of Canada in Quebec, the Atlanticprovinces and Nunavut. For the rest, the picture ismore varied. Projected average annual growth isabove the national average in only one of the sixgrowth scenarios in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and theNorthwest Territories, in two of the six scenarios inYukon and in five of the six scenarios in Alberta.

Table 3.1Population observed (2009) and projected (2036) according to six scenarios, Canada, provinces and territories

Scenario (2036)2009Low-growth

scenarioMedium-growth

scenario (M1)Medium-growth



scenario (M4)High-growth

scenario

thousands

Canada 33,739.9 40,142.4 43,821.7 43,829.3 43,808.9 43,828.7 47,686.0Newfoundland and Labrador 508.9 483.4 513.7 488.7 536.4 485.1 544.5Prince Edward Island 141.0 160.9 174.3 153.7 179.0 164.7 188.1Nova Scotia 938.2 987.0 1,054.6 952.4 1,077.8 980.9 1,123.5New Brunswick 749.5 772.3 822.2 759.8 847.9 765.3 873.5Quebec 7,828.9 8,578.4 9,272.4 9,130.6 9,313.1 9,366.6 10,001.0Ontario 13,069.2 16,135.9 17,746.8 17,176.7 17,231.0 17,445.3 19,440.0Manitoba 1,222.0 1,434.3 1,579.7 1,551.5 1,525.5 1,519.2 1,735.7Saskatchewan 1,030.1 1,120.0 1,207.0 1,380.0 1,134.5 1,136.7 1,298.2Alberta 3,687.7 4,563.5 4,963.7 5,603.5 4,718.0 5,713.7 5,383.2British Columbia 4,455.2 5,785.8 6,355.8 6,495.7 7,102.0 6,117.1 6,955.6Yukon 33.7 36.0 38.8 43.9 44.5 40.1 41.8Northwest Territories 43.4 48.6 52.7 52.8 58.4 52.6 56.9Nunavut 32.2 36.3 40.0 40.0 40.6 41.5 44.2




Table 3.2Projected (2009 to 2036) average annual growth rate according to six scenarios, Canada, provinces and territories

ScenarioLow-grouth





scenario (M4)High-growth

scenario

in thousand

Canada 6.5 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 12.9Newfoundland and

Labrador -1.9 0.3 -1.5 2.0 -1.8 2.5Prince Edward Island 4.9 7.9 3.2 8.9 5.8 10.7Nova Scotia 1.9 4.3 0.6 5.2 1.6 6.7New Brunswick 1.1 3.4 0.5 4.6 0.8 5.7Quebec 3.4 6.3 5.7 6.5 6.7 9.1Ontario 7.8 11.4 10.2 10.3 10.8 14.8Manitoba 6.0 9.6 8.9 8.3 8.1 13.1Saskatchewan 3.1 5.9 10.9 3.6 3.7 8.6Alberta 7.9 11.1 15.6 9.2 16.4 14.1British Columbia 9.7 13.2 14.1 17.4 11.8 16.6Yukon 2.5 5.3 9.9 10.4 6.5 8.0Northwest Territories 4.2 7.2 7.2 11.0 7.1 10.0Nunavut 4.5 8.1 8.0 8.7 9.5 11.8


Table 3.3Demographic weight of the provinces and territories observed (2009) and projected (2036) according to six scenarios



scenario(M1)

Medium-growthscenario

(M2)


(M3)


(M4)

High-growthscenario

percent

Canada 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Newfoundland and Labrador 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1Prince Edward Island 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Nova Scotia 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.4New Brunswick 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.8Quebec 23.2 21.4 21.2 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.0Ontario 38.7 40.2 40.5 39.2 39.3 39.8 40.8Manitoba 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6Saskatchewan 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.7Alberta 10.9 11.4 11.3 12.8 10.8 13.0 11.3British Columbia 13.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 16.2 14.0 14.6Yukon 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Northwest Territories 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Nunavut 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1


According to these scenarios, the demographicweight of the provinces within Canada is goingto evolve between now and 2036 (Table 3.3).Ontario’s population would reach between16.1 million and 19.4 million in 2036, representingapproximately 40% of the Canadian population,up from 38.7% in 2009. British Columbia, whosepopulation was approximately 4.5 million in 2009,would see its demographic weight rise to morethan 14.0% of the Canadian population, or evento 16.2% (7.1 million) according to the scenario thatis most favourable to it. As for Alberta, according to

the different scenarios, its population would rangebetween 4.6 million and 5.7 million, or 10.8% to 13.0%of the Canadian population.

Quebec, which would have a population ofbetween 8.6 million and 10.0 million in 2036,would see its demographic weight go from 23.2%in 2009 to 21.4% in 2036 in the best case, althoughit would remain Canada’s second largest province.Between 2.4 million and 2.7 million persons, or 5.4%to 6.0% of the Canadian population, would live in one ofthe Atlantic provinces in 2036, compared to 2.3 million,



or 6.9% of the population, in 2009. In Manitoba,the population could reach between 1.4 millionand 1.7 million, and the province’s demographic weightwould change only slightly during the projected period.Finally, Saskatchewan would have between 1.1 millionand 1.4 million inhabitants in 2036 depending onthe scenario, and would at best see its demographicweight remain the same.

3.6 Age structure of the populationof the provinces and territories

The age structure at the national level masks majorprovincial and territorial differences. These differencesare generated by observed gaps between provincesand territories with respect to fertility and immigration,but also with respect to interprovincial migration.Table 3.4 shows the median age in the differentprovinces and territories according to the six scenarios.

Overall, regardless of the scenario chosen, the Atlanticprovinces would have the oldest populations in Canadain 2036. Newfoundland and Labrador had the oldestpopulation in Canada in 2009, and according to all thescenarios, it would continue to do so in 2036. Theseresults largely reflect the lower fertility recorded inthese provinces and especially in Newfoundland andLabrador. That said, the impact of other componentssuch as immigration and interprovincial migration are

still important. As evidence, the projected median agevaries greatly between the different medium-growthscenarios, which, it should be recalled, differ only interms of interprovincial migration. Unlike what canbe seen in the other provinces and territories, thehighest median age is generated by a variant of themedium-growth scenario rather than by the low-growthscenario, even though the latter scenario featureslower fertility and lower immigration (scenario M4 inNewfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick,scenario M2 in Prince Edward Island and scenariosM2 and M4 in Nova Scotia).

Conversely, according to all scenarios, the projectedpopulations would be youngest in Nunavut and inthe Northwest Territories. These two territories standout with relatively high fertility in relation to the otherprovinces and territories, and this generates a youngermedian age than elsewhere.

For their part, the provinces of Ontario, Manitobaand Alberta would have a median age below theCanadian average, regardless of the scenario chosen.Elsewhere, the picture would be more varied. Forexample, the projected median age is higher thanthe Canadian average for only one scenario inSaskatchewan, and on the contrary for all scenariosbut one in British Columbia (in both cases, scenarioM3).

Table 3.4Median age observed (2009) and projected (2036) according to six scenarios, Canada, provinces and territories



scenario(M1)


(M2)


(M3)


(M4)

High-growthscenario

years





With a median age of 35.6 years, Alberta wasin 2009 the youngest province in Canada, exceptingthe particular situation of the Northwest Territories(31.5 years) and Nunavut (24.2 years). However,in 2036, Manitoba’s median age would be lowerthan Alberta’s in four of the six scenarios. The gapbetween the median ages of the youngest province andthe oldest, which was 7.2 years in 2009, would rangebetween 8.2 years (scenarios L and M3) and 10.4 years(scenario M4) in 2036. The high-growth scenario isalways associated with the youngest median age, inall provinces and territories.

The proportion of persons aged 65 years or morewould be much higher than in 2009, in all scenariosfor each province and territory (Table 3.5). TheAtlantic provinces and Quebec, in each of thescenarios presented, would have a larger proportionaged 65 years or over in 2036 than would Canada asa whole. Conversely, the corresponding proportion

would be smaller than the Canadian average inOntario, Manitoba, Alberta, the Northwest Territoriesand Nunavut. In Yukon, the projected proportion ofpersons aged 65 years or over in 2036 would be largerthan the national average only in scenario M4. Thiswould also be the case in Saskatchewan in scenariosM3 and M4 and in British Columbia in scenarios L,M1 and M4.

Overall, the disparities existing among the provincesin 2009 would tend to endure in the future, withsome exceptions. The most striking example ofthis certainly Newfoundland and Labrador, wherethe proportion of persons aged 65 years or overwas close to the Canadian average in 2009 (14.8%compared to 13.9%); in 2036, that province wouldconsistently have Canada’s highest proportion ofpersons aged 65 years or over (according to allscenarios). Charts 3.18 to 3.43 present the populationand the age structure for each provinces and territories.

Table 3.5Percentage of persons aged 65 years or over observed (2009) and projected (2036) according to six scenarios,Canada, provinces and territories



scenario(M1)


(M2)


(M3)


(M4)

High-growthscenario

percent





Chart 3.18Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Newfoundland andLabrador

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands

Low-growth scenarioMedium-growth scenario (M1)Medium-growth scenario (M2)Medium-growth scenario (M3)Medium-growth scenario (M4)High-growth scenario

Observed Projected


Chart 3.19Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Newfoundland and Labrador population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.20Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Prince Edward Island

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.21Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Prince Edward Island population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.22Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Nova Scotia

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.23Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Nova Scotia population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.24Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, New Brunswick

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.25Age pyramids (in relative value) of the New Brunswick population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.26Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Quebec

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.27Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Quebec population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.28Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Ontario

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.29Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Ontario population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.30Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Manitoba

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.31Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Manitoba population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.32Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Saskatchewan

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.33Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Saskatchewan population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.34Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Alberta

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.35Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Alberta population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.36Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, British Columbia

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.37Age pyramids (in relative value) of the British Columbia population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.38Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Yukon

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.39Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Yukon population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.40Population observed (1981 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Northwest Territories

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.41Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Northwest Territories population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




Chart 3.42Population observed (1991 to 2009) and projected (2010 to 2036) according to six scenarios, Nunavut

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands


Observed Projected


Chart 3.43Age pyramids (in relative value) of the Nunavut population, 2009 and 2036 (scenario M1)




3.7 Sensitivity of results to projectionassumptions

The above results for Canada according to the low,medium and high-growth scenarios stem from thecombined effect of assumptions on immigration, fertilityand life expectancy. In addition to reflecting theuncertainty associated with any population projection,these scenarios allow us to consider a large number ofpossibilities as to the future course of the population.However, it becomes difficult to determine the specificeffect of each component on the structure and size ofthe population at the end of the projection period.

To analyse the sensitivity of the results to the projectionassumptions and better understand the impact of eachcomponent, six analytical scenarios were created,based on medium-growth scenario M1. In them, asingle assumption was modified. Scenarios 1 and 2 areintended to examine the impact of fertility. Scenario 1 isidentical to scenario M1, except that it uses the lowfertility assumption, the one used in the low-growthscenario. Scenario 2 does the same, except that in thiscase the high fertility assumption is adopted, the one

used in the high-growth scenario. In the same way,scenario M1 was modified by replacing the mediumassumption by the low and high assumptions for themortality component (scenarios 3 and 4) and theimmigration component (scenarios 5 and 6).

Each of the three components has an effect on thesize of the projected population, but immigration is thecomponent with the greatest impact, followed by fertility(Chart 3.44). With low immigration (rate of 6.0 perthousand), the population would reach 47.6 millionin 2061, whereas it would reach 58.2 million ifimmigration were high (rate of 9.0 per thousand),representing a difference of approximately 10.6 million.The difference is smaller but not insignificant betweenthe low fertility scenario (1.5 children per woman) andthe high fertility scenario (1.9 children per woman).In 2061, the difference between the two scenarioswould be approximately 8.2 million. Finally, populationgrowth would be much less affected by an accelerationor deceleration of the increase in life expectancy. Herethe difference between the low and high scenarioswould be approximately 1.9 million in 2061.

Chart 3.44Population observed (2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to seven scenarios, Canada

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 2053 2057 2061

thousands

Medium growth scenario (M1) Medium growth scenario (M1) - Fertility scenario L

Medium growth scenario (M1) - Fertility scenario H Medium growth scenario (M1) - Mortality scenario L

Medium growth scenario (M1) - Mortality scenario H Medium growth scenario (M1) - Immigration scenario L

Medium growth scenario (M1) - Immigration scenario H




Immigration therefore has a major impact on populationsize, but it is important to note that the impact variesconsiderably from one province to another. Theprovinces and territories that receive more immigrantsin proportion to their population are naturally moresensitive to changes in the number of immigrants.Thus, while the population of Canada in 2036 wouldbe 4.5% larger with the high immigration assumptionthan with the medium assumption, the percentagewould vary between 5.4% and 4.8% in Ontario, BritishColumbia and Manitoba (Table 3.6).

While immigration and fertility levels both greatlyinfluence the projected population figures, of thetwo, it is fertility that has the largest impact on the agestructure of the population, which is most likely to eitherslow down or accelerate the aging of the Canadianpopulation between now and 2061 (Chart 3.45). Thescenarios that suggest fertility levels different from themedium scenario are those that feature the largestgap in the median age (4.5 years). The medianage projected with the low fertility assumption wouldbe 46.4 years, whereas it would be only 41.9 yearswith the high fertility assumption. The low fertility

assumption generates a smaller number of births,which has the consequence of accelerating the agingof the population by reducing the number of youngpeople in relation to seniors. Higher fertility has exactlythe opposite effect. Immigration and mortality levelsalso influence the median age and aging, but muchmore modestly. The scenarios that differ from themedium scenario only in their immigration level havea median age gap of approximately one year, as dothose that differ only in their mortality level. Clearly,variations in mortality and immigration have a limitedimpact on the aging of the Canadian population.3

It is important to note that if other assumptions hadbeen chosen, this would have led to conclusionsdifferent from those presented here. High and lowassumptions calling for smaller or greater differencesin relation to the medium scenario could change theorder of importance of the effects of phenomena,especially for fertility and immigration.

3. Many studies, including Loh and George (2007), Guillemette and Robson(2006) and United Nations (2000), show that variations in the immigrationlevel have a much greater effect on the size of the projected populationthan on its age structure.

Table 3.6Percentage of variation of projected population in 2036 according to the adopted immigration assumption incomparison of the medium-growth scenario (M1)

Scenario (2036)Medium-growth

scenario (M1) with immigrationassumption of low-growth

scenario

Medium-growthscenario (M1) with immigration

assumption of high-growthscenario

percent

Ontario -5.1 5.4British Columbia -5.1 5.4Manitoba -4.6 4.8Canada -4.3 4.5Alberta -3.7 3.8Quebec -3.4 3.5Prince Edward Island -3.4 3.5Yukon -3.1 3.2Northwest Territories -2.7 2.8Saskatchewan -2.4 2.5Nova Scotia -2.2 2.3New Brunswick -1.9 1.9Newfoundland and Labrador -1.6 1.6Nunavut -1.5 1.5




Chart 3.45Median age observed (2009) and projected (2010 to 2061) according to seven scenarios, Canada

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 2053 2057 2061

median age

Medium growth scenario (M1) Medium growth scenario (M1) - Fertility scenario L

Medium growth scenario (M1) - Fertility scenario H Medium growth scenario (M1) - Mortality scenario L

Medium growth scenario (M1) - Mortality scenario H Medium growth scenario (M1) - Immigration scenario L

Medium growth scenario (M1) - Immigration scenario H




Section 4

Analysis of the results of theshort-term projectionsThe assumptions in the short-term scenario arebased on the most recent data available whenthe projections were produced. For fertility, theparameters are based on births in 2007. Formortality, the parameters are exactly the same asin the long-term medium-growth scenarios, and theytherefore project the same gains in life expectancy.Lastly, for the other components1 , preliminary data forthe 2008/2009 period of the Demographic EstimatesProgram were used (Table 4.1). Since it is unlikelythat the situation observed over a single year willcontinue over a long period, the projection horizon forthis scenario is limited to five years.

According to the short-term scenario, Canada’spopulation could reach 35.9 million in 2014,up 2.1 million from 2009. This represents an averageannual growth rate of 12.4 per thousand (Table 4.2).About two-thirds of this growth would come frommigratory increase, while the remaining one-thirdwould result from natural increase.

All the provinces and territories would see theirpopulation grow during the next five years, except

1. Projected net interprovincial migration according to every scenariosincluding the short-term scenario are shown for every province andterritory in Charts 1.4 to 1.16 in Section 1.

for the Northwest Territories. For the Westernprovinces, Yukon and Nunavut, the growth of thepopulation would be above the Canadian average.Alberta would lead with an average annual growthrate of 24.4 per thousand. Saskatchewan, Nunavutand British Columbia would follow, with growth ratesof 16.9, 16.5 and 16.3 per thousand, respectively.

In absolute numbers, over the five-year period, Ontariowould have the largest population increase (702,600),followed by Alberta (471,900), British Columbia(374,800) and Quebec (356,900).

The total migratory increase (the sum of netinternational migration and net interprovincialmigration) would be the primary factor contributing topopulation growth, except in Nunavut and NorthwestTerritories where the migratory increase is negativeand the fertility levels are higher than elsewhere in thecountry.

The Northwest Territories would be the only regionof Canada to see its population decline during thefive-year period, with natural increase and immigrationnot offsetting the losses from interprovincial migration.The Northwest Territories would therefore face amodest decline of 723 (-16.6 per thousand) during theperiod.

Table 4.1Assumptions of fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents and interprovincial migration

Components Assumptions short-term scenario

Fertility 1.7 children per womanLife expectancy in 2014 - Males 79.9 yearsLife expectancy in 2014 - Females 84.2 yearsImmigration Immigration plan of Citizenship and Immigration Canada (252,500 per year)Emigration rate 2008/2009 rate 1.30 per 1,000Returning immigrant rate 2008/2009 rate 58.4%Net temporary emigration 2008/2009 net (40,300)Non-permanents residents 2008/2009 net (70,400)Interprovincial migration 2008/2009 trend



Table 4.2Observed (2009) and projected (2014) population, average annual growth rate and components of population growthaccording to the short-term scenario, Canada, provinces and territories

Observedpopulation

Projectedpopulation

Averageannualgrowth

rate

Growth Naturalincrease

Netinterprovincial

migration

Netinternational

migration

2009 2014 2009 to 2014

thousands thousands

Canada 33,739.9 35,878.3 12.4 2,138.4 714.9 0.0 1,423.5Newfoundland and Labrador 508.9 523.9 5.8 15.0 -0.7 13.4 2.3Prince Edward Island 141.0 149.4 11.6 8.4 1.4 -2.9 9.9Nova Scotia 938.2 950.8 2.7 12.6 1.0 -2.7 14.3New Brunswick 749.5 763.2 3.6 13.8 2.8 -0.2 11.2Quebec 7,828.9 8,185.8 9.0 356.9 136.4 -51.7 272.2Ontario 13,069.2 13,771.8 10.5 702.6 256.4 -93.0 539.2Manitoba 1,222.0 1,309.7 14.0 87.8 33.4 -8.6 63.0Saskatchewan 1,030.1 1,120.2 16.9 90.1 29.1 20.8 40.2Alberta 3,687.7 4,159.6 24.4 471.9 175.8 102.4 193.7British Columbia 4,455.2 4,830.0 16.3 374.8 72.5 26.2 276.1Yukon 33.7 36.2 14.5 2.5 0.8 0.7 1.0Northwest Territories 43.4 42.7 -3.4 -0.7 2.7 -3.7 0.3Nunavut 32.2 34.9 16.5 2.7 3.4 -0.7 0.0


Growth, while positive, would be modest in theAtlantic provinces. New Brunswick would experiencethe lowest average annual growth with a changeof only 2.7 per thousand, followed by Nova Scotia(3.6 per thousand) and Newfoundland and Labrador(5.8 per thousand). Within this group, Newfoundlandand Labrador would be the only province to experiencenegative natural increase, mainly due to low fertility.

Its growth would be heavily dependent on positive netinterprovincial migration. This latter component wasnot inconsiderable in 2008/2009, and is reflected in theshort-term scenario. As for Prince Edward Island, itwould experience an average annual growth of 11.6 perthousand, much of it from international migration. Notethat this province saw its share of immigrants increaseconsiderably during the period 2008/2009.



Section 5

Analysis of previous editions of theprojectionsUsing the components method, Statistics Canadahas produced population projections of Canada, theprovinces and the territories seven times since 1974.From one edition to another, the results varyconsiderably, insofar as each edition revises thepreceding assumptions in light of more recent trends.

The current projections (2009 to 2036) revise upwardthe projected population levels of the precedingedition (2005 to 2031). These differences are largelyattributable to increased fertility, the increase in thenumber of immigrants and positive net figures fornon-permanent residents in the early years of theperiod. Already in 2009, the estimated populationexceeded the projected population in the high-growthscenario of the 2005 to 2031 edition.

The same is true for the 2000 to 2026 edition.Proposing a total fertility rate of 1.8 that would bereached only in 2026, the high-growth scenarioof the 2000 to 2026 edition underestimated birthsand non-permanent residents while it overestimateddeaths.

This said, some caution is required in makingcomparisons with relatively recent editions of theprojections, since such comparisons involve judginghow long-term projections match actual values soonafter their publication. But what about projectionspublished longer ago? Clearly, even if the periodcovered by those projections has ended, it isinstructive to study the results of the edition whichwas published in 19741 and which projected thepopulation for the period 1972 to 2001. That editionwas relatively successful in estimating the growthof the population (Chart 5.1). The medium-growthscenario suggested that the Canadian populationwould reach 31,050,000 in 2001, which is very closeto the estimated population of 31,020,000.2 However,care should be taken not to attribute this result to the

1. This was Statistics Canada’s first publication on the subject.

accuracy of the assumptions underlying that scenario.Those assumptions called for a total fertility rateof 2.20 children per woman to be reached in 1985 andan annual number of immigrants of 120,000. In 2001,the total fertility rate was instead 1.54 children perwoman and the number of immigrants was morethan double. These divergences were important: theage structure that existed in 2001 differs greatlyfrom the one projected for the same year bythe 1972 to 2001 edition, in which, among otherthings, the very young population was much moreheavily represented (Chart 5.2).

In subsequent editions, the growth of the Canadianpopulation closely followed the levels projected bythe high-growth scenarios. The range suggested bythe 1976 to 2001 edition just manages to capturethe level reached in 2001, but this is not the casewith the 1984 to 2006 and 1989 to 2011 editions,which underestimated growth (Chart 5.3). Theunderestimation of future immigration levels, whichincreased significantly in the early 1990s, largelyexplains why these editions aimed below the actuallevels.

Produced after a period during which fertilityand immigration underwent major increases,the 1993 to 2016 edition stands out: in itsmedium-growth scenario, it proposed a total fertilityrate of 1.7 children per woman and an annual numberof immigrants of 250,000, which is very similar tothe assumptions adopted for the medium scenarioof the current edition of the projections. In the shortrun, fertility rates and immigration did not remain atthose levels, with the result that those projectionsoverestimated the growth of the Canadian populationover the period 1991 to 2009 while suggesting ayounger age structure. However, the range offeredby those projections encompasses the actual levelsstarting in 2004.

2. This is a revised level to take account of retroactive adjustments madeto the population estimates after the publication of these projections.Among other things, the adjustments served to take net undercoverageinto account and to add components not formerly estimated, such asnon-permanent residents and returning emigrants.



In short, past editions have often tended tounderestimate Canada’s population growth. Moreover,even in the high-growth scenarios, they most oftenshowed growth falling off in the long run. One reasonfor this slowing of growth is that for immigration (acomponent that continues to play an expanding rolein the Canada’s population growth), the numberof immigrants annually projected was fixed, andthus it generated a contribution to growth that grewproportionally smaller as the population increased.3In the current edition of the projections, immigration

3. In the 2005/2031 edition, an immigration rate was used until 2030/2031,followed by fixed numbers of immigrants (namely the numbers projectedfor 2030/2031 using a rate) from 2031/2032 to 2055/2056.

is projected according to a fixed rate (rather than afixed number), which results in an annual contingentof immigrants that evolves in proportion to the sizeof the population. Added to relatively high fertilityreaching 1.9 children per woman starting in 2013 and,at the end of the period, the near or total disappearanceof the baby boom generation, immigration contributesto a much higher growth curve in the high-growthscenario than was seen in previous editions. Overall,it is perhaps this trend that distinguishes the currentedition of the projections from those publishedpreviously.

Chart 5.1Population observed (1971 to 2009) and projected (1972 to 2001) according to three scenarios ofthe 1972 to 2001 edition, Canada

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

thousands

ObservedProjection - Low-growth scenarioProjection - Medium growth scenarioProjection - High-growth scenario

Note(s): The values projected had, as a base point, a population non-adjusted for the net undercoverage. In this graphic, they have been adjusted in order to be atthe same level than the observed values.




Chart 5.2Age and sex pyramids (in relative value) of the Canadian population on July 1st 2001 according to the populationprojections of the 1972 to 2001 edition and the population estimates


Chart 5.3Population observed (1984 to 2009) and projected according to some scenarios taken from previous editions(1984 to 2006, 1989 to 2011 and 1993 to 2016), Canada

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

39,000

41,000

43,000

45,000

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041

thousands

Observed

1993 to 2016 edition, Low-growth scenario

1993 to 2016 edition, Medium-growth scenario

1989 to 2011 edition, High-growth scenario

1984 to 2006 edtion, High-growth scenario

Note(s): The values projected in the 1984 to 2006 and 1989 to 2011 editions had, as a base point, a population non-ajusted for the net undercoverage. In thisgraphic, they have been ajusted in order to be at the same level than the observed values.




Section 6

ConclusionThe results of these projections differ from thepreceding edition, as they highlight the recent changesthat point to substantial population growth in the future,in keeping with the recent rise in fertility and the morelong-standing increase in international immigration.In fact, according to the medium-growth scenario,the Canadian population should continue to growin the next fifty years, at an average annual rateof 8.6 per thousand. While lower than the growth raterecorded during the period 1981 to 2009 (11.0 perthousand), this rate is higher than the rate projected bythe medium-growth scenario of the preceeding edition(2.4 per thousand). Moreover, the Canadian populationwould not decrease in any of the projection scenarios,which is another difference from the preceeding edition.

Nevertheless, these changes would not be largeenough to alter some trends that began some timeago, such as the aging of the population, the unequalgrowth of the provinces and territories or the increasingimportance of immigration in population growth. Itseems likely that in the future, these trends willcontinue to pose some challenges for Canada.

Finally, the 2008 United Nations projections indicatethat the G8 countries might follow quite different pathsin the future. In those projections, Italy, Germany,Japan and Russia would experience substantialpopulation declines by the year 2050. Conversely, theUnited States, France and the United Kingdom, likeCanada, would see their populations continue to growuntil at least 2050.



Related products

Selected publications from Statistics Canada

91-002-X Quarterly Demographic Estimates

91-003-X Canadian Demographics at a Glance

91-214-X Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas

91-215-X Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories

91-520-S Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, with Detailed ElectronicTables

91-528-X Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada

91-551-X Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Selected CANSIM tables from Statistics Canada

052-0005 Projected population, by projection scenario, sex and age group as of July 1, Canada,provinces and territories


Statistical tables


Table 1-1Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Canada, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014

Period Populationat the beginning of

period

Births Deaths Immigrants Totalemigrants

1 Netinterprovincial

migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 33,739.9 382.1 243.5 252.5 37.9 0.0 70.42010/2011 34,163.5 388.3 247.3 252.5 38.1 0.0 70.42011/2012 34,589.3 394.4 251.2 252.5 38.2 0.0 70.42012/2013 35,017.2 400.3 255.1 252.5 38.4 0.0 70.42013/2014 35,447.0 405.8 259.0 252.5 38.5 0.0 70.4

1. Include emigrants, returning emigrants and net changes in the number of Canadians temporarily abroad.

Table 1-2Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 508.9 4.5 4.6 0.6 0.3 2.4 0.22010/2011 511.8 4.5 4.7 0.6 0.3 2.6 0.22011/2012 514.7 4.6 4.7 0.6 0.3 2.7 0.22012/2013 517.7 4.6 4.8 0.6 0.3 2.8 0.22013/2014 520.8 4.6 4.8 0.6 0.3 2.9 0.2


Table 1-3Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 141.0 1.4 1.2 1.8 0.1 -0.6 0.22010/2011 142.7 1.4 1.2 1.8 0.1 -0.6 0.22011/2012 144.3 1.5 1.2 1.8 0.1 -0.6 0.22012/2013 146.0 1.5 1.2 1.8 0.1 -0.6 0.22013/2014 147.7 1.5 1.2 1.8 0.1 -0.6 0.2


Table 1-4Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 938.2 8.8 8.6 2.4 0.9 -1.0 1.32010/2011 940.3 8.8 8.6 2.4 0.8 -0.8 1.32011/2012 942.6 8.8 8.7 2.4 0.8 -0.5 1.32012/2013 945.1 8.9 8.7 2.4 0.8 -0.3 1.32013/2014 947.9 8.9 8.8 2.4 0.8 -0.1 1.3




Table 1-5Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 749.5 7.1 6.4 2.0 0.5 -0.4 0.82010/2011 752.0 7.1 6.5 2.0 0.5 -0.2 0.82011/2012 754.7 7.1 6.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.82012/2013 757.5 7.1 6.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.82013/2014 760.3 7.1 6.6 2.0 0.5 0.3 0.8


Table 1-6Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 7,828.9 86.8 59.2 47.1 5.8 -10.5 13.22010/2011 7,900.4 87.7 60.1 47.1 5.8 -10.4 13.22011/2012 7,972.0 88.4 61.0 47.1 5.8 -10.3 13.22012/2013 8,043.6 89.1 62.0 47.1 5.8 -10.2 13.22013/2014 8,114.9 89.7 63.0 47.1 5.8 -10.2 13.2


Table 1-7Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 13,069.2 142.1 91.0 110.2 17.7 -18.6 15.42010/2011 13,209.6 143.7 92.6 110.2 17.7 -18.6 15.42011/2012 13,350.0 145.4 94.2 110.2 17.8 -18.6 15.42012/2013 13,490.5 147.1 95.8 110.2 17.8 -18.6 15.42013/2014 13,631.1 148.9 97.3 110.2 17.9 -18.6 15.4


Table 1-8Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 1,222.0 16.0 9.8 13.6 1.2 -1.6 0.32010/2011 1,239.1 16.3 9.9 13.6 1.2 -1.6 0.32011/2012 1,256.5 16.7 10.0 13.6 1.2 -1.7 0.32012/2013 1,274.1 17.0 10.0 13.6 1.3 -1.8 0.32013/2014 1,291.9 17.3 10.1 13.6 1.3 -1.9 0.3




Table 1-9Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 1,030.1 14.1 9.0 6.2 0.4 4.1 2.32010/2011 1,047.4 14.5 9.0 6.2 0.4 4.1 2.32011/2012 1,065.0 14.9 9.0 6.2 0.4 4.2 2.32012/2013 1,083.1 15.2 9.0 6.2 0.4 4.2 2.32013/2014 1,101.5 15.5 9.1 6.2 0.4 4.2 2.3


Table 1-10Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 3,687.7 53.4 20.8 24.6 4.8 22.1 19.12010/2011 3,781.2 55.3 21.3 24.6 4.8 21.2 19.12011/2012 3,875.2 57.0 21.8 24.6 4.9 20.4 19.12012/2013 3,969.6 58.7 22.3 24.6 4.9 19.7 19.12013/2014 4,064.5 60.2 22.7 24.6 5.0 19.0 19.1


Table 1-11Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 4,455.2 46.0 32.5 43.8 6.2 4.8 17.72010/2011 4,528.8 47.0 33.0 43.8 6.2 5.1 17.72011/2012 4,603.1 48.0 33.6 43.8 6.3 5.3 17.72012/2013 4,678.1 49.1 34.1 43.8 6.3 5.4 17.72013/2014 4,753.7 50.2 34.6 43.8 6.3 5.6 17.7


Table 1-12Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 33.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.12010/2011 34.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.12011/2012 34.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.12012/2013 35.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.12013/2014 35.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1




Table 1-13Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 43.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.8 0.02010/2011 43.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.8 0.02011/2012 43.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.02012/2013 42.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.02013/2014 42.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.0


Table 1-14Components of population growth, short-term scenario (S) — Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2013/2014


period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 32.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.02010/2011 32.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.02011/2012 33.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.02012/2013 33.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.02013/2014 34.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0




Table 2-1Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061

Period Population at thebeginning of period


1 Net interprovincialmigration

Net non-permanentresidents

thousands

2009/2010 33,739.9 372.1 247.2 240.0 47.2 0.0 46.02010/2011 34,103.4 369.4 251.9 240.0 47.4 0.0 40.92011/2012 34,454.5 366.5 256.7 240.0 47.6 0.0 35.82012/2013 34,792.4 362.9 261.6 209.6 47.7 0.0 30.72013/2014 35,086.3 358.7 266.6 211.6 47.9 0.0 25.52014/2015 35,367.6 361.2 271.4 213.4 48.0 0.0 20.42015/2016 35,643.2 363.4 276.2 215.3 48.2 0.0 15.32016/2017 35,912.8 365.3 280.9 217.0 48.4 0.0 10.22017/2018 36,176.1 366.7 285.6 218.8 48.5 0.0 5.12018/2019 36,432.5 367.7 290.4 220.5 48.6 0.0 0.02019/2020 36,681.7 368.3 295.2 222.2 48.8 0.0 0.02020/2021 36,928.1 368.4 300.1 223.8 48.9 0.0 0.02021/2022 37,171.2 368.1 305.1 225.4 49.1 0.0 0.02022/2023 37,410.6 367.3 310.1 227.0 49.2 0.0 0.02023/2024 37,645.6 366.2 315.4 228.6 49.3 0.0 0.02024/2025 37,875.9 364.9 320.8 230.2 49.4 0.0 0.02025/2026 38,100.7 363.2 326.5 231.7 49.5 0.0 0.02026/2027 38,319.6 361.4 332.4 233.2 49.6 0.0 0.02027/2028 38,532.3 359.6 338.6 234.6 49.6 0.0 0.02028/2029 38,738.3 357.8 345.0 236.1 49.7 0.0 0.02029/2030 38,937.5 356.2 351.8 237.4 49.8 0.0 0.02030/2031 39,129.6 354.8 358.8 238.8 49.8 0.0 0.02031/2032 39,314.5 353.8 366.0 240.0 49.9 0.0 0.02032/2033 39,492.5 353.3 373.1 241.3 50.0 0.0 0.02033/2034 39,664.0 353.2 380.3 242.5 50.0 0.0 0.02034/2035 39,829.3 353.5 387.7 243.7 50.1 0.0 0.02035/2036 39,988.7 354.3 395.2 244.8 50.1 0.0 0.02036/2037 40,142.4 355.4 402.8 245.9 50.2 0.0 0.02037/2038 40,290.8 356.7 409.7 246.9 50.2 0.0 0.02038/2039 40,434.6 358.1 416.5 248.0 50.3 0.0 0.02039/2040 40,573.9 359.5 423.2 249.0 50.3 0.0 0.02040/2041 40,708.9 360.9 429.6 250.0 50.4 0.0 0.02041/2042 40,839.8 362.1 435.9 250.9 50.4 0.0 0.02042/2043 40,966.6 363.2 441.7 251.8 50.5 0.0 0.02043/2044 41,089.4 364.2 447.3 252.7 50.5 0.0 0.02044/2045 41,208.5 365.0 452.4 253.6 50.6 0.0 0.02045/2046 41,324.2 365.7 457.1 254.5 50.7 0.0 0.02046/2047 41,436.5 366.2 461.3 255.3 50.7 0.0 0.02047/2048 41,546.0 366.7 465.1 256.1 50.8 0.0 0.02048/2049 41,652.9 367.2 468.3 256.9 50.9 0.0 0.02049/2050 41,757.8 367.5 471.0 257.7 51.0 0.0 0.02050/2051 41,860.9 367.8 473.3 258.4 51.0 0.0 0.02051/2052 41,962.9 368.1 475.0 259.2 51.1 0.0 0.02052/2053 42,064.1 368.3 476.2 260.0 51.2 0.0 0.02053/2054 42,164.9 368.4 477.0 260.7 51.3 0.0 0.02054/2055 42,265.7 368.5 477.2 261.5 51.3 0.0 0.02055/2056 42,367.1 368.5 477.0 262.2 51.4 0.0 0.02056/2057 42,469.4 368.4 476.4 263.0 51.5 0.0 0.02057/2058 42,572.9 368.3 475.6 263.7 51.6 0.0 0.02058/2059 42,677.8 368.2 474.5 264.5 51.6 0.0 0.02059/2060 42,784.4 368.1 473.3 265.3 51.7 0.0 0.02060/2061 42,892.8 368.1 472.1 266.1 51.8 0.0 0.0




Table 2-2Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 508.9 4.3 4.7 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.22010/2011 508.7 4.2 4.7 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.22011/2012 508.4 4.1 4.8 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.22012/2013 508.0 4.0 4.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.22013/2014 507.4 3.9 5.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.12014/2015 506.8 3.9 5.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.12015/2016 506.2 3.8 5.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.12016/2017 505.6 3.8 5.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.12017/2018 505.0 3.8 5.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.02018/2019 504.4 3.8 5.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.02019/2020 503.7 3.7 5.5 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.02020/2021 503.1 3.7 5.6 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.02021/2022 502.4 3.6 5.7 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.02022/2023 501.7 3.6 5.8 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.02023/2024 500.9 3.5 5.9 0.4 0.4 1.4 0.02024/2025 500.0 3.5 6.0 0.4 0.3 1.5 0.02025/2026 499.1 3.5 6.1 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.02026/2027 498.1 3.4 6.2 0.4 0.3 1.7 0.02027/2028 497.0 3.4 6.4 0.4 0.3 1.7 0.02028/2029 495.8 3.3 6.5 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.02029/2030 494.5 3.3 6.6 0.4 0.3 1.9 0.02030/2031 493.1 3.2 6.7 0.4 0.3 2.0 0.02031/2032 491.7 3.2 6.8 0.4 0.3 2.0 0.02032/2033 490.1 3.2 7.0 0.4 0.3 2.1 0.02033/2034 488.5 3.2 7.1 0.4 0.3 2.2 0.02034/2035 486.9 3.1 7.2 0.4 0.3 2.3 0.02035/2036 485.2 3.1 7.3 0.4 0.3 2.3 0.0


Table 2-3Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 141.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.12010/2011 142.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.12011/2012 143.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.12012/2013 144.4 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.12013/2014 145.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.02014/2015 146.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.02015/2016 147.1 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02016/2017 148.0 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02017/2018 148.9 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02018/2019 149.8 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02019/2020 150.6 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02020/2021 151.4 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02021/2022 152.3 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02022/2023 153.1 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02023/2024 153.9 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02024/2025 154.6 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02025/2026 155.4 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02026/2027 156.1 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02027/2028 156.7 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02028/2029 157.4 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02029/2030 158.0 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02030/2031 158.5 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02031/2032 159.0 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02032/2033 159.5 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02033/2034 159.9 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02034/2035 160.3 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.02035/2036 160.6 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.0




Table 2-4Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 938.2 8.5 8.7 2.5 0.9 2.0 0.82010/2011 942.3 8.4 8.8 2.5 0.9 2.1 0.72011/2012 946.2 8.3 8.9 2.5 0.9 2.1 0.62012/2013 949.9 8.2 9.0 2.0 0.9 2.2 0.52013/2014 953.0 8.0 9.1 2.0 0.9 2.3 0.42014/2015 955.8 8.1 9.2 2.0 0.9 2.4 0.32015/2016 958.6 8.1 9.3 2.0 0.9 2.5 0.32016/2017 961.2 8.1 9.4 2.0 0.9 2.6 0.22017/2018 963.8 8.1 9.5 2.1 0.9 2.6 0.12018/2019 966.3 8.1 9.6 2.1 0.9 2.7 0.02019/2020 968.7 8.1 9.8 2.1 0.9 2.8 0.02020/2021 971.0 8.1 9.9 2.1 0.9 2.9 0.02021/2022 973.3 8.0 10.0 2.1 0.9 3.0 0.02022/2023 975.5 8.0 10.2 2.1 0.9 3.1 0.02023/2024 977.5 7.9 10.4 2.1 0.9 3.2 0.02024/2025 979.4 7.8 10.5 2.1 0.9 3.3 0.02025/2026 981.2 7.7 10.7 2.1 0.9 3.4 0.02026/2027 982.8 7.7 10.9 2.1 0.9 3.4 0.02027/2028 984.1 7.6 11.1 2.1 0.9 3.5 0.02028/2029 985.3 7.5 11.3 2.1 0.9 3.6 0.02029/2030 986.2 7.4 11.5 2.1 0.9 3.6 0.02030/2031 986.9 7.3 11.7 2.1 0.9 3.7 0.02031/2032 987.4 7.2 11.9 2.1 0.9 3.8 0.02032/2033 987.7 7.2 12.2 2.1 0.9 3.8 0.02033/2034 987.8 7.1 12.4 2.1 0.9 3.9 0.02034/2035 987.7 7.1 12.6 2.1 0.9 4.0 0.02035/2036 987.4 7.1 12.8 2.1 0.9 4.1 0.0


Table 2-5Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 749.5 6.8 6.5 1.6 0.7 1.1 0.52010/2011 752.3 6.7 6.6 1.6 0.7 1.2 0.42011/2012 754.9 6.5 6.7 1.6 0.7 1.3 0.42012/2013 757.3 6.4 6.8 1.3 0.7 1.4 0.32013/2014 759.2 6.2 6.9 1.3 0.7 1.5 0.32014/2015 761.0 6.2 7.0 1.3 0.6 1.5 0.22015/2016 762.6 6.2 7.1 1.3 0.6 1.6 0.22016/2017 764.2 6.2 7.2 1.3 0.6 1.7 0.12017/2018 765.7 6.2 7.3 1.3 0.6 1.8 0.12018/2019 767.2 6.2 7.4 1.3 0.6 1.9 0.02019/2020 768.5 6.2 7.5 1.3 0.6 1.9 0.02020/2021 769.8 6.1 7.6 1.3 0.6 2.0 0.02021/2022 771.0 6.1 7.7 1.3 0.6 2.1 0.02022/2023 772.1 6.0 7.9 1.3 0.6 2.1 0.02023/2024 773.0 6.0 8.0 1.3 0.6 2.2 0.02024/2025 773.9 5.9 8.1 1.3 0.6 2.3 0.02025/2026 774.6 5.9 8.3 1.3 0.6 2.3 0.02026/2027 775.2 5.8 8.4 1.3 0.6 2.4 0.02027/2028 775.6 5.7 8.6 1.3 0.6 2.5 0.02028/2029 775.9 5.7 8.8 1.3 0.6 2.5 0.02029/2030 776.0 5.6 8.9 1.3 0.6 2.6 0.02030/2031 775.9 5.5 9.1 1.3 0.6 2.6 0.02031/2032 775.7 5.5 9.3 1.3 0.6 2.7 0.02032/2033 775.3 5.5 9.5 1.3 0.6 2.8 0.02033/2034 774.7 5.4 9.6 1.3 0.6 2.8 0.02034/2035 774.1 5.4 9.8 1.3 0.6 2.9 0.02035/2036 773.2 5.4 10.0 1.3 0.6 3.0 0.0




Table 2-6Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 7,828.9 87.0 60.1 43.1 6.9 -8.8 7.42010/2011 7,890.4 85.5 61.2 43.1 6.9 -8.8 6.62011/2012 7,948.6 83.8 62.4 43.1 6.9 -8.7 5.82012/2013 8,003.2 82.0 63.6 36.7 7.0 -8.7 4.92013/2014 8,047.6 80.0 64.9 36.9 7.0 -8.7 4.12014/2015 8,088.1 80.1 66.1 37.1 7.0 -8.6 3.32015/2016 8,126.9 80.2 67.2 37.3 7.0 -8.6 2.52016/2017 8,164.0 80.2 68.3 37.4 7.0 -8.5 1.62017/2018 8,199.5 80.1 69.4 37.6 7.0 -8.5 0.82018/2019 8,233.2 80.0 70.5 37.8 7.0 -8.4 0.02019/2020 8,265.1 79.8 71.7 37.9 7.0 -8.3 0.02020/2021 8,295.8 79.6 72.9 38.1 7.0 -8.2 0.02021/2022 8,325.3 79.2 74.0 38.2 7.0 -8.1 0.02022/2023 8,353.6 78.8 75.1 38.3 7.0 -8.0 0.02023/2024 8,380.5 78.2 76.3 38.4 7.0 -7.9 0.02024/2025 8,405.9 77.6 77.5 38.6 7.0 -7.9 0.02025/2026 8,429.7 76.9 78.7 38.7 7.0 -7.8 0.02026/2027 8,451.8 76.2 80.0 38.8 7.0 -7.7 0.02027/2028 8,472.1 75.6 81.3 38.9 7.0 -7.7 0.02028/2029 8,490.6 74.9 82.7 38.9 7.0 -7.6 0.02029/2030 8,507.2 74.4 84.1 39.0 7.0 -7.5 0.02030/2031 8,522.0 73.9 85.5 39.1 7.0 -7.5 0.02031/2032 8,535.0 73.6 86.9 39.1 7.0 -7.4 0.02032/2033 8,546.4 73.4 88.4 39.2 7.0 -7.4 0.02033/2034 8,556.3 73.4 89.8 39.2 7.0 -7.3 0.02034/2035 8,564.8 73.5 91.2 39.3 7.0 -7.2 0.02035/2036 8,572.2 73.7 92.7 39.3 7.0 -7.1 0.0


Table 2-7Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 13,069.2 138.3 92.4 117.5 21.8 0.3 20.22010/2011 13,231.3 138.1 94.4 117.5 21.9 0.0 18.02011/2012 13,388.6 137.9 96.4 117.5 22.0 -0.3 15.72012/2013 13,541.1 137.5 98.4 102.5 22.1 -0.6 13.52013/2014 13,673.5 136.9 100.4 103.5 22.2 -0.9 11.22014/2015 13,801.7 138.4 102.4 104.4 22.2 -1.2 9.02015/2016 13,927.8 139.8 104.3 105.4 22.3 -1.5 6.72016/2017 14,051.5 141.0 106.2 106.3 22.4 -1.8 4.52017/2018 14,173.0 142.2 108.2 107.2 22.5 -2.1 2.22018/2019 14,291.9 143.2 110.1 108.1 22.5 -2.4 0.02019/2020 14,408.3 144.0 112.0 109.0 22.6 -2.7 0.02020/2021 14,524.1 144.7 113.9 109.9 22.7 -3.0 0.02021/2022 14,639.1 145.1 115.8 110.8 22.8 -3.2 0.02022/2023 14,753.2 145.3 117.8 111.6 22.8 -3.5 0.02023/2024 14,866.1 145.4 119.8 112.5 22.9 -3.7 0.02024/2025 14,977.6 145.2 122.0 113.3 22.9 -3.9 0.02025/2026 15,087.4 144.9 124.2 114.2 23.0 -4.1 0.02026/2027 15,195.2 144.5 126.5 115.0 23.0 -4.3 0.02027/2028 15,300.9 143.9 128.8 115.8 23.1 -4.4 0.02028/2029 15,404.3 143.3 131.4 116.6 23.2 -4.5 0.02029/2030 15,505.1 142.7 134.0 117.3 23.2 -4.6 0.02030/2031 15,603.3 142.1 136.8 118.1 23.2 -4.8 0.02031/2032 15,698.7 141.7 139.7 118.8 23.3 -4.9 0.02032/2033 15,791.3 141.3 142.5 119.5 23.3 -5.0 0.02033/2034 15,881.3 141.1 145.4 120.2 23.4 -5.1 0.02034/2035 15,968.7 141.1 148.4 120.8 23.4 -5.3 0.02035/2036 16,053.5 141.2 151.5 121.5 23.4 -5.4 0.0




Table 2-8Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 1,222.0 15.3 10.0 9.9 1.5 -3.1 1.02010/2011 1,233.5 15.2 10.1 9.9 1.5 -3.2 0.92011/2012 1,244.7 15.0 10.2 9.9 1.5 -3.2 0.82012/2013 1,255.4 14.9 10.3 8.5 1.5 -3.3 0.72013/2014 1,264.4 14.7 10.4 8.5 1.5 -3.3 0.62014/2015 1,273.0 14.8 10.5 8.6 1.5 -3.3 0.52015/2016 1,281.5 14.9 10.6 8.7 1.5 -3.4 0.32016/2017 1,289.9 15.0 10.7 8.7 1.5 -3.4 0.22017/2018 1,298.3 15.1 10.8 8.8 1.6 -3.4 0.12018/2019 1,306.5 15.1 10.9 8.8 1.6 -3.4 0.02019/2020 1,314.6 15.2 11.0 8.9 1.6 -3.4 0.02020/2021 1,322.7 15.2 11.1 8.9 1.6 -3.5 0.02021/2022 1,330.7 15.2 11.2 9.0 1.6 -3.5 0.02022/2023 1,338.7 15.1 11.3 9.0 1.6 -3.5 0.02023/2024 1,346.5 15.1 11.4 9.1 1.6 -3.5 0.02024/2025 1,354.2 15.1 11.5 9.1 1.6 -3.5 0.02025/2026 1,361.8 15.0 11.7 9.2 1.6 -3.5 0.02026/2027 1,369.3 15.0 11.8 9.2 1.6 -3.5 0.02027/2028 1,376.6 14.9 12.0 9.3 1.6 -3.5 0.02028/2029 1,383.7 14.8 12.2 9.3 1.6 -3.5 0.02029/2030 1,390.6 14.8 12.4 9.4 1.6 -3.5 0.02030/2031 1,397.4 14.8 12.6 9.4 1.6 -3.5 0.02031/2032 1,404.0 14.7 12.8 9.5 1.6 -3.4 0.02032/2033 1,410.4 14.7 13.0 9.5 1.6 -3.4 0.02033/2034 1,416.6 14.7 13.2 9.6 1.6 -3.4 0.02034/2035 1,422.7 14.7 13.4 9.6 1.6 -3.4 0.02035/2036 1,428.6 14.8 13.6 9.6 1.6 -3.4 0.0


Table 2-9Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 1,030.1 13.3 9.2 3.1 0.7 -2.2 0.72010/2011 1,035.2 13.2 9.2 3.1 0.7 -2.1 0.62011/2012 1,040.1 12.9 9.2 3.1 0.7 -2.0 0.52012/2013 1,044.7 12.7 9.2 2.6 0.7 -1.9 0.42013/2014 1,048.7 12.4 9.3 2.6 0.7 -1.8 0.42014/2015 1,052.4 12.5 9.3 2.6 0.7 -1.7 0.32015/2016 1,056.1 12.4 9.3 2.7 0.7 -1.5 0.22016/2017 1,059.8 12.4 9.4 2.7 0.7 -1.4 0.12017/2018 1,063.6 12.4 9.4 2.7 0.7 -1.3 0.12018/2019 1,067.3 12.3 9.5 2.7 0.7 -1.2 0.02019/2020 1,070.9 12.2 9.5 2.7 0.7 -1.1 0.02020/2021 1,074.5 12.1 9.6 2.7 0.7 -1.0 0.02021/2022 1,078.1 12.0 9.6 2.7 0.7 -0.9 0.02022/2023 1,081.6 11.9 9.7 2.7 0.7 -0.8 0.02023/2024 1,085.1 11.8 9.7 2.7 0.7 -0.7 0.02024/2025 1,088.4 11.7 9.8 2.7 0.7 -0.6 0.02025/2026 1,091.6 11.6 9.9 2.7 0.7 -0.6 0.02026/2027 1,094.7 11.5 10.0 2.7 0.7 -0.5 0.02027/2028 1,097.8 11.4 10.1 2.8 0.7 -0.4 0.02028/2029 1,100.7 11.3 10.2 2.8 0.7 -0.4 0.02029/2030 1,103.4 11.3 10.4 2.8 0.7 -0.3 0.02030/2031 1,106.1 11.2 10.5 2.8 0.7 -0.3 0.02031/2032 1,108.7 11.2 10.7 2.8 0.7 -0.2 0.02032/2033 1,111.1 11.2 10.8 2.8 0.7 -0.1 0.02033/2034 1,113.5 11.2 11.0 2.8 0.7 -0.1 0.02034/2035 1,115.7 11.2 11.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.02035/2036 1,117.9 11.2 11.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0




Table 2-10Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 3,687.7 50.8 21.1 20.7 6.3 -1.9 5.32010/2011 3,735.0 50.4 21.6 20.7 6.4 -1.9 4.72011/2012 3,780.9 49.9 22.1 20.7 6.4 -1.8 4.12012/2013 3,825.2 49.4 22.7 18.8 6.4 -1.8 3.52013/2014 3,866.0 48.7 23.2 19.0 6.5 -1.8 2.92014/2015 3,905.2 48.9 23.7 19.2 6.5 -1.8 2.42015/2016 3,943.6 49.0 24.3 19.4 6.5 -1.8 1.82016/2017 3,981.1 49.0 24.8 19.6 6.6 -1.8 1.22017/2018 4,017.8 49.0 25.3 19.8 6.6 -1.8 0.62018/2019 4,053.3 48.8 25.9 19.9 6.6 -1.8 0.02019/2020 4,087.8 48.6 26.5 20.1 6.6 -1.8 0.02020/2021 4,121.7 48.4 27.0 20.3 6.6 -1.8 0.02021/2022 4,154.9 48.1 27.6 20.4 6.7 -1.8 0.02022/2023 4,187.5 47.9 28.2 20.6 6.7 -1.7 0.02023/2024 4,219.3 47.6 28.8 20.7 6.7 -1.7 0.02024/2025 4,250.3 47.3 29.5 20.9 6.7 -1.7 0.02025/2026 4,280.6 47.1 30.2 21.0 6.7 -1.7 0.02026/2027 4,310.1 46.9 30.9 21.2 6.7 -1.7 0.02027/2028 4,338.9 46.7 31.6 21.3 6.7 -1.7 0.02028/2029 4,366.8 46.6 32.4 21.5 6.8 -1.8 0.02029/2030 4,394.0 46.5 33.1 21.6 6.8 -1.8 0.02030/2031 4,420.4 46.5 34.0 21.7 6.8 -1.9 0.02031/2032 4,446.0 46.5 34.8 21.9 6.8 -1.9 0.02032/2033 4,470.8 46.6 35.7 22.0 6.8 -1.9 0.02033/2034 4,495.0 46.7 36.5 22.1 6.8 -2.0 0.02034/2035 4,518.5 46.9 37.4 22.2 6.8 -2.0 0.02035/2036 4,541.3 47.2 38.4 22.3 6.8 -2.1 0.0


Table 2-11Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 4,455.2 44.6 33.0 40.3 7.8 13.4 9.72010/2011 4,522.6 44.7 33.7 40.3 7.8 13.3 8.72011/2012 4,588.1 44.8 34.4 40.3 7.9 13.2 7.62012/2013 4,651.8 44.9 35.1 36.0 7.9 13.0 6.52013/2014 4,709.2 44.8 35.8 36.5 7.9 12.8 5.42014/2015 4,765.0 45.4 36.4 36.9 8.0 12.7 4.32015/2016 4,819.8 45.9 37.1 37.3 8.0 12.5 3.22016/2017 4,873.6 46.4 37.8 37.7 8.0 12.3 2.22017/2018 4,926.4 46.8 38.5 38.1 8.1 12.1 1.12018/2019 4,978.0 47.1 39.2 38.5 8.1 12.0 0.02019/2020 5,028.3 47.3 39.8 38.9 8.2 11.8 0.02020/2021 5,078.3 47.5 40.5 39.3 8.2 11.6 0.02021/2022 5,128.0 47.7 41.3 39.7 8.2 11.4 0.02022/2023 5,177.3 47.7 42.0 40.1 8.3 11.2 0.02023/2024 5,226.0 47.7 42.8 40.5 8.3 11.0 0.02024/2025 5,274.1 47.7 43.5 40.8 8.3 10.8 0.02025/2026 5,321.6 47.7 44.4 41.2 8.3 10.6 0.02026/2027 5,368.3 47.6 45.3 41.6 8.4 10.4 0.02027/2028 5,414.2 47.5 46.2 41.9 8.4 10.2 0.02028/2029 5,459.3 47.4 47.1 42.3 8.4 10.0 0.02029/2030 5,503.4 47.4 48.2 42.6 8.4 9.8 0.02030/2031 5,546.6 47.3 49.2 42.9 8.4 9.6 0.02031/2032 5,588.8 47.3 50.3 43.3 8.5 9.5 0.02032/2033 5,630.1 47.3 51.4 43.6 8.5 9.3 0.02033/2034 5,670.3 47.4 52.5 43.9 8.5 9.1 0.02034/2035 5,709.7 47.6 53.7 44.2 8.5 8.9 0.02035/2036 5,748.2 47.8 54.8 44.5 8.5 8.7 0.0




Table 2-12Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 33.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02010/2011 33.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02011/2012 33.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02012/2013 34.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02013/2014 34.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02014/2015 34.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02015/2016 34.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02016/2017 34.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02017/2018 34.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02018/2019 34.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02019/2020 34.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02020/2021 34.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02021/2022 35.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02022/2023 35.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02023/2024 35.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02024/2025 35.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02025/2026 35.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02026/2027 35.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02027/2028 35.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02028/2029 35.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02029/2030 35.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02030/2031 35.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02031/2032 35.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02032/2033 35.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02033/2034 35.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02034/2035 35.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 35.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


Table 2-13Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 43.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 43.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 44.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 44.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 44.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 44.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 44.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02016/2017 45.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02017/2018 45.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02018/2019 45.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02019/2020 45.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02020/2021 45.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02021/2022 46.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02022/2023 46.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02023/2024 46.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02024/2025 46.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02025/2026 46.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02026/2027 47.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02027/2028 47.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02028/2029 47.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02029/2030 47.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02030/2031 47.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02031/2032 47.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02032/2033 48.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02033/2034 48.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02034/2035 48.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 48.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Table 2-14Components of population growth, low-growth scenario (L) — Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 32.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 32.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 32.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 33.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 33.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 33.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 33.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02016/2017 34.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02017/2018 34.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02018/2019 34.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02019/2020 34.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02020/2021 34.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02021/2022 34.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02022/2023 35.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02023/2024 35.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02024/2025 35.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02025/2026 35.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02026/2027 35.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02027/2028 35.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02028/2029 35.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02029/2030 35.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02030/2031 35.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02031/2032 36.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02032/2033 36.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02033/2034 36.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02034/2035 36.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02035/2036 36.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0




Table 3-1Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) —Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061





thousands

2009/2010 33,739.9 390.6 243.5 252.5 47.2 0.0 46.02010/2011 34,138.2 395.4 247.3 252.5 47.4 0.0 40.92011/2012 34,532.2 400.1 251.0 252.5 47.6 0.0 35.82012/2013 34,921.9 404.7 254.9 263.1 47.8 0.0 30.72013/2014 35,317.5 409.1 258.7 266.3 48.1 0.0 25.52014/2015 35,711.7 413.2 262.6 269.5 48.3 0.0 20.42015/2016 36,103.9 416.9 266.4 272.7 48.6 0.0 15.32016/2017 36,493.8 420.2 270.3 275.9 48.8 0.0 10.22017/2018 36,881.0 422.9 274.2 279.0 49.1 0.0 5.12018/2019 37,264.8 425.2 278.2 282.2 49.4 0.0 0.02019/2020 37,644.6 427.0 282.2 285.3 49.6 0.0 0.02020/2021 38,025.1 428.3 286.4 288.4 49.9 0.0 0.02021/2022 38,405.5 429.1 290.5 291.5 50.1 0.0 0.02022/2023 38,785.5 429.3 294.8 294.6 50.4 0.0 0.02023/2024 39,164.3 429.2 299.3 297.8 50.6 0.0 0.02024/2025 39,541.3 428.7 304.1 300.9 50.8 0.0 0.02025/2026 39,915.9 427.9 309.1 303.9 51.1 0.0 0.02026/2027 40,287.7 427.1 314.3 307.0 51.3 0.0 0.02027/2028 40,656.2 426.3 319.9 310.1 51.5 0.0 0.02028/2029 41,021.1 425.6 325.8 313.1 51.7 0.0 0.02029/2030 41,382.4 425.3 332.0 316.1 51.9 0.0 0.02030/2031 41,740.0 425.5 338.5 319.1 52.1 0.0 0.02031/2032 42,093.9 426.3 345.4 322.0 52.3 0.0 0.02032/2033 42,444.6 427.7 352.5 324.9 52.4 0.0 0.02033/2034 42,792.2 429.8 359.9 327.9 52.6 0.0 0.02034/2035 43,137.3 432.7 367.6 330.7 52.8 0.0 0.02035/2036 43,480.4 436.2 375.4 333.6 53.0 0.0 0.02036/2037 43,821.7 440.4 383.4 336.5 53.2 0.0 0.02037/2038 44,162.0 445.0 391.4 339.3 53.4 0.0 0.02038/2039 44,501.4 450.1 399.5 342.2 53.7 0.0 0.02039/2040 44,840.5 455.4 407.4 345.0 53.9 0.0 0.02040/2041 45,179.6 460.8 415.3 347.8 54.1 0.0 0.02041/2042 45,518.8 466.2 422.9 350.7 54.4 0.0 0.02042/2043 45,858.5 471.6 430.2 353.5 54.6 0.0 0.02043/2044 46,198.7 476.7 437.3 356.4 54.9 0.0 0.02044/2045 46,539.6 481.6 443.9 359.2 55.2 0.0 0.02045/2046 46,881.3 486.2 450.3 362.1 55.5 0.0 0.02046/2047 47,224.0 490.5 456.1 364.9 55.8 0.0 0.02047/2048 47,567.5 494.5 461.5 367.8 56.0 0.0 0.02048/2049 47,912.3 498.1 466.4 370.7 56.3 0.0 0.02049/2050 48,258.3 501.4 470.7 373.6 56.6 0.0 0.02050/2051 48,605.9 504.3 474.6 376.5 56.9 0.0 0.02051/2052 48,955.2 507.0 477.9 379.4 57.2 0.0 0.02052/2053 49,306.6 509.5 480.7 382.4 57.5 0.0 0.02053/2054 49,660.2 511.8 483.0 385.3 57.8 0.0 0.02054/2055 50,016.5 513.9 484.7 388.3 58.1 0.0 0.02055/2056 50,375.9 516.0 485.9 391.3 58.4 0.0 0.02056/2057 50,738.9 518.0 486.6 394.3 58.7 0.0 0.02057/2058 51,105.8 520.0 487.0 397.4 59.0 0.0 0.02058/2059 51,477.1 522.0 487.1 400.4 59.3 0.0 0.02059/2060 51,853.2 524.2 487.0 403.6 59.6 0.0 0.02060/2061 52,234.3 526.5 486.9 406.7 59.9 0.0 0.0




Table 3-2Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) — Newfoundlandand Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 508.9 4.5 4.6 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.22010/2011 509.0 4.5 4.6 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.22011/2012 509.1 4.5 4.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.22012/2013 509.3 4.4 4.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.22013/2014 509.4 4.4 4.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.12014/2015 509.7 4.4 4.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.12015/2016 510.0 4.4 4.9 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.12016/2017 510.3 4.4 5.0 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.12017/2018 510.7 4.3 5.1 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.02018/2019 511.1 4.3 5.1 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.02019/2020 511.5 4.3 5.2 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.02020/2021 511.9 4.2 5.3 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.02021/2022 512.4 4.2 5.4 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.02022/2023 512.8 4.1 5.5 0.5 0.4 1.6 0.02023/2024 513.2 4.1 5.6 0.5 0.4 1.7 0.02024/2025 513.6 4.0 5.7 0.5 0.4 1.8 0.02025/2026 513.9 4.0 5.8 0.5 0.4 1.9 0.02026/2027 514.2 3.9 5.9 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.02027/2028 514.4 3.9 6.0 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.02028/2029 514.5 3.8 6.1 0.5 0.4 2.1 0.02029/2030 514.6 3.8 6.2 0.5 0.3 2.2 0.02030/2031 514.6 3.8 6.3 0.5 0.3 2.3 0.02031/2032 514.6 3.8 6.4 0.5 0.3 2.4 0.02032/2033 514.5 3.7 6.6 0.5 0.3 2.5 0.02033/2034 514.4 3.7 6.7 0.5 0.3 2.6 0.02034/2035 514.2 3.7 6.8 0.5 0.3 2.6 0.02035/2036 514.0 3.7 6.9 0.5 0.3 2.7 0.0


Table 3-3Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) — Prince EdwardIsland, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 141.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.12010/2011 142.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.12011/2012 143.6 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.12012/2013 144.9 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.12013/2014 146.2 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.02014/2015 147.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.02015/2016 148.8 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.02016/2017 150.1 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.02017/2018 151.5 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.02018/2019 152.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.02019/2020 154.1 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.02020/2021 155.4 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.02021/2022 156.8 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.02022/2023 158.1 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.02023/2024 159.4 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.02024/2025 160.7 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.02025/2026 162.0 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.02026/2027 163.3 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.02027/2028 164.5 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.02028/2029 165.7 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.02029/2030 166.9 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.02030/2031 168.0 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.02031/2032 169.1 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.02032/2033 170.2 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.02033/2034 171.3 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.02034/2035 172.3 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.02035/2036 173.3 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.0




Table 3-4Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) — NovaScotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 938.2 9.0 8.6 2.6 0.9 2.0 0.82010/2011 943.0 9.0 8.6 2.6 0.9 2.1 0.72011/2012 947.9 9.1 8.7 2.6 0.9 2.2 0.62012/2013 952.7 9.1 8.7 2.5 0.9 2.3 0.52013/2014 957.5 9.2 8.8 2.5 0.9 2.4 0.42014/2015 962.3 9.2 8.9 2.6 0.9 2.5 0.32015/2016 967.1 9.3 8.9 2.6 0.9 2.6 0.32016/2017 972.0 9.3 9.0 2.6 0.9 2.7 0.22017/2018 976.8 9.3 9.1 2.6 0.9 2.8 0.12018/2019 981.6 9.3 9.2 2.6 0.9 2.9 0.02019/2020 986.3 9.3 9.3 2.6 0.9 3.1 0.02020/2021 991.1 9.3 9.4 2.6 0.9 3.2 0.02021/2022 995.8 9.2 9.5 2.7 0.9 3.3 0.02022/2023 1,000.5 9.2 9.7 2.7 0.9 3.4 0.02023/2024 1,005.2 9.1 9.8 2.7 0.9 3.5 0.02024/2025 1,009.8 9.0 10.0 2.7 0.9 3.6 0.02025/2026 1,014.3 9.0 10.1 2.7 0.9 3.8 0.02026/2027 1,018.7 8.9 10.3 2.7 0.9 3.9 0.02027/2028 1,022.9 8.8 10.5 2.7 0.9 4.0 0.02028/2029 1,027.0 8.7 10.6 2.7 0.9 4.1 0.02029/2030 1,031.0 8.6 10.8 2.7 0.9 4.2 0.02030/2031 1,034.7 8.6 11.0 2.8 0.9 4.3 0.02031/2032 1,038.4 8.5 11.3 2.8 0.9 4.4 0.02032/2033 1,041.8 8.5 11.5 2.8 0.9 4.5 0.02033/2034 1,045.2 8.5 11.7 2.8 0.9 4.6 0.02034/2035 1,048.4 8.5 11.9 2.8 0.9 4.7 0.02035/2036 1,051.6 8.5 12.1 2.8 0.9 4.8 0.0


Table 3-5Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) — NewBrunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 749.5 7.1 6.4 1.6 0.7 1.1 0.52010/2011 752.8 7.1 6.5 1.6 0.7 1.2 0.42011/2012 756.1 7.1 6.5 1.6 0.7 1.3 0.42012/2013 759.3 7.1 6.6 1.6 0.7 1.4 0.32013/2014 762.5 7.1 6.7 1.6 0.7 1.5 0.32014/2015 765.8 7.2 6.7 1.6 0.7 1.6 0.22015/2016 769.0 7.2 6.8 1.6 0.7 1.7 0.22016/2017 772.2 7.2 6.9 1.6 0.7 1.8 0.12017/2018 775.3 7.1 7.0 1.6 0.7 1.9 0.12018/2019 778.5 7.1 7.1 1.6 0.7 2.0 0.02019/2020 781.5 7.1 7.1 1.7 0.7 2.1 0.02020/2021 784.6 7.1 7.2 1.7 0.7 2.2 0.02021/2022 787.7 7.0 7.3 1.7 0.7 2.3 0.02022/2023 790.7 7.0 7.4 1.7 0.7 2.4 0.02023/2024 793.6 6.9 7.6 1.7 0.7 2.5 0.02024/2025 796.4 6.9 7.7 1.7 0.7 2.5 0.02025/2026 799.2 6.8 7.8 1.7 0.7 2.6 0.02026/2027 801.8 6.7 7.9 1.7 0.7 2.7 0.02027/2028 804.4 6.7 8.1 1.7 0.6 2.8 0.02028/2029 806.8 6.6 8.2 1.7 0.6 2.9 0.02029/2030 809.1 6.6 8.4 1.7 0.6 3.0 0.02030/2031 811.3 6.5 8.6 1.7 0.6 3.0 0.02031/2032 813.3 6.5 8.7 1.7 0.6 3.1 0.02032/2033 815.3 6.5 8.9 1.7 0.6 3.2 0.02033/2034 817.1 6.5 9.1 1.7 0.6 3.3 0.02034/2035 818.9 6.5 9.3 1.7 0.6 3.4 0.02035/2036 820.6 6.5 9.5 1.7 0.6 3.5 0.0




Table 3-6Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) —Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 7,828.9 88.5 59.2 45.3 6.9 -8.8 7.42010/2011 7,895.1 89.3 60.0 45.3 6.9 -8.8 6.62011/2012 7,960.6 90.1 60.9 45.3 7.0 -8.7 5.82012/2013 8,025.1 90.7 61.9 46.0 7.0 -8.7 4.92013/2014 8,089.1 91.2 62.9 46.4 7.0 -8.7 4.12014/2015 8,152.2 91.6 63.9 46.7 7.0 -8.6 3.32015/2016 8,214.3 91.9 64.8 47.1 7.0 -8.6 2.52016/2017 8,275.3 92.1 65.6 47.4 7.0 -8.6 1.62017/2018 8,335.3 92.3 66.5 47.8 7.1 -8.5 0.82018/2019 8,394.1 92.4 67.5 48.1 7.1 -8.4 0.02019/2020 8,451.6 92.4 68.4 48.5 7.1 -8.4 0.02020/2021 8,508.5 92.3 69.4 48.8 7.1 -8.3 0.02021/2022 8,564.7 92.1 70.4 49.1 7.2 -8.2 0.02022/2023 8,620.2 91.7 71.3 49.4 7.2 -8.1 0.02023/2024 8,674.7 91.3 72.3 49.7 7.2 -8.0 0.02024/2025 8,728.2 90.8 73.3 50.0 7.2 -8.0 0.02025/2026 8,780.5 90.2 74.4 50.3 7.2 -7.9 0.02026/2027 8,831.6 89.6 75.5 50.6 7.2 -7.8 0.02027/2028 8,881.2 89.0 76.7 50.9 7.2 -7.8 0.02028/2029 8,929.3 88.5 77.9 51.2 7.2 -7.7 0.02029/2030 8,976.1 88.1 79.2 51.5 7.3 -7.6 0.02030/2031 9,021.5 87.8 80.5 51.7 7.3 -7.6 0.02031/2032 9,065.7 87.8 81.9 52.0 7.3 -7.5 0.02032/2033 9,108.7 87.9 83.4 52.2 7.3 -7.5 0.02033/2034 9,150.7 88.3 84.9 52.5 7.3 -7.4 0.02034/2035 9,191.9 88.8 86.4 52.7 7.3 -7.3 0.02035/2036 9,232.4 89.6 87.9 52.9 7.3 -7.2 0.0


Table 3-7Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) —Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 13,069.2 147.3 91.0 123.6 21.9 0.3 20.22010/2011 13,247.8 149.3 92.6 123.6 21.9 0.0 18.02011/2012 13,424.1 151.4 94.3 123.6 22.0 -0.4 15.72012/2013 13,598.2 153.7 95.9 128.6 22.1 -0.7 13.52013/2014 13,775.2 155.9 97.5 130.3 22.3 -1.1 11.22014/2015 13,951.9 158.2 99.1 132.0 22.4 -1.4 9.02015/2016 14,128.1 160.3 100.7 133.6 22.5 -1.8 6.72016/2017 14,303.8 162.3 102.3 135.3 22.6 -2.2 4.52017/2018 14,478.8 164.2 104.0 137.0 22.8 -2.5 2.22018/2019 14,652.9 165.9 105.6 138.6 22.9 -2.9 0.02019/2020 14,826.0 167.4 107.2 140.2 23.0 -3.2 0.02020/2021 15,000.1 168.6 108.8 141.9 23.2 -3.6 0.02021/2022 15,175.1 169.7 110.5 143.5 23.3 -3.9 0.02022/2023 15,350.6 170.5 112.2 145.2 23.4 -4.2 0.02023/2024 15,526.4 171.1 114.0 146.9 23.6 -4.6 0.02024/2025 15,702.2 171.4 115.9 148.5 23.7 -4.8 0.02025/2026 15,877.8 171.6 117.8 150.2 23.8 -5.1 0.02026/2027 16,052.8 171.6 119.9 151.8 23.9 -5.4 0.02027/2028 16,227.1 171.6 122.1 153.5 24.0 -5.6 0.02028/2029 16,400.4 171.5 124.4 155.1 24.1 -5.8 0.02029/2030 16,572.7 171.4 126.8 156.8 24.3 -6.0 0.02030/2031 16,743.8 171.5 129.5 158.4 24.4 -6.2 0.02031/2032 16,913.7 171.7 132.2 160.0 24.5 -6.4 0.02032/2033 17,082.3 172.2 135.0 161.6 24.6 -6.6 0.02033/2034 17,249.9 172.8 138.0 163.2 24.7 -6.8 0.02034/2035 17,416.4 173.8 141.1 164.7 24.8 -7.0 0.02035/2036 17,582.0 175.0 144.3 166.3 24.9 -7.2 0.0




Table 3-8Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) —Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 1,222.0 16.0 9.8 10.4 1.5 -3.1 1.02010/2011 1,234.9 16.2 9.9 10.4 1.5 -3.2 0.92011/2012 1,247.8 16.5 9.9 10.4 1.5 -3.3 0.82012/2013 1,260.7 16.7 10.0 10.6 1.5 -3.3 0.72013/2014 1,273.9 16.9 10.1 10.8 1.5 -3.4 0.62014/2015 1,287.1 17.1 10.1 10.9 1.5 -3.4 0.52015/2016 1,300.4 17.3 10.2 11.0 1.6 -3.5 0.32016/2017 1,313.8 17.4 10.3 11.1 1.6 -3.5 0.22017/2018 1,327.2 17.5 10.3 11.2 1.6 -3.6 0.12018/2019 1,340.5 17.6 10.4 11.3 1.6 -3.6 0.02019/2020 1,353.9 17.7 10.5 11.4 1.6 -3.6 0.02020/2021 1,367.3 17.8 10.6 11.5 1.6 -3.7 0.02021/2022 1,380.8 17.8 10.6 11.7 1.6 -3.7 0.02022/2023 1,394.3 17.8 10.7 11.8 1.6 -3.7 0.02023/2024 1,407.7 17.8 10.8 11.9 1.6 -3.8 0.02024/2025 1,421.2 17.8 10.9 12.0 1.6 -3.8 0.02025/2026 1,434.7 17.8 11.0 12.1 1.6 -3.8 0.02026/2027 1,448.1 17.8 11.2 12.2 1.7 -3.8 0.02027/2028 1,461.4 17.8 11.3 12.3 1.7 -3.9 0.02028/2029 1,474.7 17.8 11.5 12.5 1.7 -3.9 0.02029/2030 1,488.0 17.8 11.6 12.6 1.7 -3.9 0.02030/2031 1,501.1 17.9 11.8 12.7 1.7 -3.9 0.02031/2032 1,514.3 18.0 12.0 12.8 1.7 -3.9 0.02032/2033 1,527.4 18.1 12.2 12.9 1.7 -4.0 0.02033/2034 1,540.5 18.2 12.4 13.0 1.7 -4.0 0.02034/2035 1,553.6 18.3 12.7 13.1 1.7 -4.0 0.02035/2036 1,566.7 18.5 12.9 13.2 1.7 -4.0 0.0


Table 3-9Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) —Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 1,030.1 13.9 9.0 3.2 0.7 -2.2 0.72010/2011 1,036.0 14.0 9.0 3.2 0.7 -2.1 0.62011/2012 1,042.1 14.1 9.0 3.2 0.7 -2.0 0.52012/2013 1,048.3 14.2 9.0 3.3 0.7 -1.9 0.42013/2014 1,054.7 14.3 9.0 3.3 0.7 -1.7 0.42014/2015 1,061.2 14.3 9.0 3.3 0.7 -1.6 0.32015/2016 1,067.9 14.3 9.0 3.4 0.7 -1.5 0.22016/2017 1,074.6 14.3 9.0 3.4 0.7 -1.3 0.12017/2018 1,081.3 14.2 9.1 3.4 0.7 -1.2 0.12018/2019 1,088.1 14.2 9.1 3.4 0.7 -1.1 0.02019/2020 1,094.8 14.1 9.1 3.4 0.7 -0.9 0.02020/2021 1,101.6 14.0 9.1 3.5 0.7 -0.8 0.02021/2022 1,108.4 13.9 9.2 3.5 0.7 -0.7 0.02022/2023 1,115.2 13.8 9.2 3.5 0.7 -0.6 0.02023/2024 1,122.0 13.7 9.2 3.5 0.7 -0.5 0.02024/2025 1,128.7 13.6 9.3 3.5 0.7 -0.4 0.02025/2026 1,135.4 13.5 9.4 3.6 0.7 -0.3 0.02026/2027 1,142.1 13.4 9.4 3.6 0.7 -0.2 0.02027/2028 1,148.7 13.4 9.5 3.6 0.7 -0.2 0.02028/2029 1,155.2 13.3 9.6 3.6 0.7 -0.1 0.02029/2030 1,161.7 13.3 9.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 0.02030/2031 1,168.2 13.3 9.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.02031/2032 1,174.6 13.4 10.0 3.7 0.7 0.1 0.02032/2033 1,181.1 13.4 10.2 3.7 0.7 0.2 0.02033/2034 1,187.5 13.5 10.3 3.7 0.7 0.3 0.02034/2035 1,194.0 13.6 10.5 3.7 0.7 0.3 0.02035/2036 1,200.5 13.8 10.7 3.8 0.7 0.4 0.0




Table 3-10Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) —Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 3,687.7 53.5 20.8 21.7 6.3 -1.9 5.32010/2011 3,739.1 54.1 21.2 21.7 6.4 -1.9 4.72011/2012 3,790.2 54.7 21.6 21.7 6.4 -1.9 4.12012/2013 3,840.8 55.2 22.1 23.6 6.5 -1.8 3.52013/2014 3,892.7 55.6 22.5 23.9 6.5 -1.8 2.92014/2015 3,944.3 55.9 22.9 24.2 6.5 -1.8 2.42015/2016 3,995.6 56.2 23.4 24.6 6.6 -1.8 1.82016/2017 4,046.3 56.3 23.8 24.9 6.6 -1.8 1.22017/2018 4,096.4 56.4 24.3 25.2 6.7 -1.8 0.62018/2019 4,145.8 56.4 24.7 25.5 6.7 -1.8 0.02019/2020 4,194.4 56.3 25.2 25.8 6.7 -1.8 0.02020/2021 4,242.7 56.1 25.7 26.1 6.8 -1.8 0.02021/2022 4,290.6 56.0 26.2 26.4 6.8 -1.8 0.02022/2023 4,338.2 55.8 26.7 26.7 6.8 -1.8 0.02023/2024 4,385.3 55.6 27.2 27.0 6.9 -1.7 0.02024/2025 4,432.0 55.4 27.8 27.2 6.9 -1.7 0.02025/2026 4,478.2 55.3 28.4 27.5 6.9 -1.7 0.02026/2027 4,524.0 55.2 29.0 27.8 7.0 -1.6 0.02027/2028 4,569.3 55.1 29.7 28.1 7.0 -1.6 0.02028/2029 4,614.2 55.2 30.4 28.4 7.0 -1.6 0.02029/2030 4,658.8 55.3 31.1 28.6 7.0 -1.6 0.02030/2031 4,703.0 55.5 31.8 28.9 7.1 -1.6 0.02031/2032 4,746.9 55.8 32.6 29.2 7.1 -1.6 0.02032/2033 4,790.6 56.2 33.5 29.4 7.1 -1.6 0.02033/2034 4,834.0 56.7 34.3 29.7 7.1 -1.7 0.02034/2035 4,877.3 57.3 35.2 30.0 7.2 -1.7 0.02035/2036 4,920.5 57.9 36.2 30.2 7.2 -1.7 0.0


Table 3-11Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) — BritishColumbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 4,455.2 47.5 32.5 42.4 7.8 13.4 9.72010/2011 4,528.0 48.3 33.1 42.4 7.8 13.3 8.72011/2012 4,599.9 49.2 33.6 42.4 7.9 13.2 7.62012/2013 4,670.8 50.1 34.2 45.2 7.9 13.0 6.52013/2014 4,743.6 51.0 34.7 45.9 8.0 12.9 5.42014/2015 4,816.1 51.9 35.3 46.6 8.0 12.7 4.32015/2016 4,888.3 52.7 35.8 47.3 8.1 12.6 3.22016/2017 4,960.2 53.4 36.4 48.0 8.1 12.4 2.22017/2018 5,031.6 54.0 37.0 48.7 8.2 12.3 1.12018/2019 5,102.4 54.5 37.6 49.4 8.3 12.1 0.02019/2020 5,172.6 55.0 38.1 50.0 8.3 11.9 0.02020/2021 5,243.1 55.4 38.7 50.7 8.4 11.7 0.02021/2022 5,313.8 55.7 39.4 51.4 8.4 11.5 0.02022/2023 5,384.7 55.9 40.0 52.1 8.5 11.3 0.02023/2024 5,455.6 56.1 40.7 52.8 8.5 11.1 0.02024/2025 5,526.4 56.3 41.4 53.5 8.6 10.9 0.02025/2026 5,597.2 56.4 42.1 54.2 8.6 10.7 0.02026/2027 5,667.7 56.5 42.9 54.8 8.7 10.5 0.02027/2028 5,738.0 56.6 43.7 55.5 8.7 10.3 0.02028/2029 5,808.0 56.7 44.6 56.2 8.8 10.1 0.02029/2030 5,877.7 56.9 45.6 56.9 8.8 9.9 0.02030/2031 5,946.9 57.0 46.6 57.5 8.8 9.7 0.02031/2032 6,015.9 57.3 47.6 58.2 8.9 9.5 0.02032/2033 6,084.4 57.6 48.7 58.9 8.9 9.3 0.02033/2034 6,152.6 58.0 49.8 59.5 9.0 9.2 0.02034/2035 6,220.5 58.5 51.0 60.2 9.0 9.0 0.02035/2036 6,288.2 59.1 52.2 60.8 9.1 8.8 0.0




Table 3-12Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) —Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 33.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02010/2011 33.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02011/2012 34.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02012/2013 34.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02013/2014 34.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02014/2015 34.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02015/2016 34.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02016/2017 34.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02017/2018 35.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02018/2019 35.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02019/2020 35.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02020/2021 35.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02021/2022 35.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02022/2023 36.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02023/2024 36.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02024/2025 36.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02025/2026 36.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02026/2027 36.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02027/2028 37.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02028/2029 37.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02029/2030 37.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02030/2031 37.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02031/2032 37.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02032/2033 38.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02033/2034 38.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02034/2035 38.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 38.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


Table 3-13Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) — NorthwestTerritories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 43.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 43.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 44.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 44.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 44.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 45.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 45.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02016/2017 45.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02017/2018 46.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02018/2019 46.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02019/2020 46.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02020/2021 47.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02021/2022 47.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02022/2023 47.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02023/2024 48.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02024/2025 48.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02025/2026 48.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02026/2027 49.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02027/2028 49.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02028/2029 49.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02029/2030 50.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02030/2031 50.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02031/2032 50.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02032/2033 51.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02033/2034 51.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02034/2035 52.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 52.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Table 3-14Components of population growth, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1) —Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 32.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 32.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 32.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 33.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 33.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 33.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 34.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02016/2017 34.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02017/2018 34.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02018/2019 35.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02019/2020 35.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02020/2021 35.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02021/2022 36.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02022/2023 36.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02023/2024 36.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02024/2025 37.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02025/2026 37.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02026/2027 37.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02027/2028 37.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02028/2029 38.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02029/2030 38.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02030/2031 38.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02031/2032 38.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02032/2033 39.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02033/2034 39.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02034/2035 39.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02035/2036 39.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0




Table 4-1Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) —Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061





thousands

2009/2010 33,739.9 390.6 243.5 252.5 47.2 0.0 46.02010/2011 34,138.2 395.5 247.3 252.5 47.4 0.0 40.92011/2012 34,532.4 400.3 251.1 252.5 47.6 0.0 35.82012/2013 34,922.3 405.0 254.9 263.0 47.9 0.0 30.72013/2014 35,318.1 409.5 258.7 266.1 48.1 0.0 25.52014/2015 35,712.5 413.7 262.6 269.3 48.4 0.0 20.42015/2016 36,105.0 417.5 266.4 272.5 48.6 0.0 15.32016/2017 36,495.3 420.9 270.3 275.6 48.9 0.0 10.22017/2018 36,882.8 423.7 274.2 278.7 49.2 0.0 5.12018/2019 37,266.9 426.1 278.2 281.8 49.4 0.0 0.02019/2020 37,647.2 427.9 282.3 284.9 49.7 0.0 0.02020/2021 38,028.0 429.3 286.4 288.0 50.0 0.0 0.02021/2022 38,408.9 430.0 290.5 291.0 50.2 0.0 0.02022/2023 38,789.2 430.3 294.8 294.1 50.5 0.0 0.02023/2024 39,168.4 430.2 299.3 297.2 50.7 0.0 0.02024/2025 39,545.7 429.7 304.1 300.3 51.0 0.0 0.02025/2026 39,920.7 429.0 309.1 303.3 51.2 0.0 0.02026/2027 40,292.8 428.2 314.3 306.3 51.4 0.0 0.02027/2028 40,661.5 427.4 319.9 309.3 51.6 0.0 0.02028/2029 41,026.8 426.8 325.8 312.3 51.8 0.0 0.02029/2030 41,388.3 426.5 332.0 315.3 52.0 0.0 0.02030/2031 41,746.1 426.7 338.5 318.2 52.2 0.0 0.02031/2032 42,100.3 427.5 345.4 321.1 52.4 0.0 0.02032/2033 42,451.1 429.0 352.5 324.0 52.6 0.0 0.02033/2034 42,799.0 431.2 359.9 326.8 52.8 0.0 0.02034/2035 43,144.4 434.1 367.6 329.7 53.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 43,487.6 437.7 375.4 332.5 53.2 0.0 0.02036/2037 43,829.3 441.9 383.3 335.3 53.4 0.0 0.02037/2038 44,169.8 446.7 391.4 338.1 53.6 0.0 0.02038/2039 44,509.5 451.8 399.4 340.9 53.9 0.0 0.02039/2040 44,848.9 457.1 407.4 343.7 54.1 0.0 0.02040/2041 45,188.3 462.6 415.2 346.5 54.3 0.0 0.02041/2042 45,527.9 468.1 422.8 349.3 54.6 0.0 0.02042/2043 45,868.0 473.5 430.2 352.1 54.9 0.0 0.02043/2044 46,208.6 478.8 437.2 354.9 55.1 0.0 0.02044/2045 46,550.0 483.7 443.9 357.7 55.4 0.0 0.02045/2046 46,892.1 488.4 450.2 360.5 55.7 0.0 0.02046/2047 47,235.2 492.8 456.0 363.3 56.0 0.0 0.02047/2048 47,579.3 496.8 461.4 366.2 56.3 0.0 0.02048/2049 47,924.5 500.4 466.3 369.0 56.6 0.0 0.02049/2050 48,271.1 503.8 470.6 371.8 56.9 0.0 0.02050/2051 48,619.2 506.8 474.4 374.7 57.2 0.0 0.02051/2052 48,969.1 509.6 477.8 377.6 57.5 0.0 0.02052/2053 49,320.9 512.1 480.6 380.5 57.8 0.0 0.02053/2054 49,675.1 514.4 482.8 383.4 58.1 0.0 0.02054/2055 50,032.0 516.6 484.5 386.3 58.4 0.0 0.02055/2056 50,391.9 518.7 485.7 389.2 58.7 0.0 0.02056/2057 50,755.5 520.8 486.5 392.2 59.0 0.0 0.02057/2058 51,122.9 522.8 486.8 395.2 59.3 0.0 0.02058/2059 51,494.8 524.9 486.9 398.2 59.6 0.0 0.02059/2060 51,871.4 527.1 486.8 401.3 59.9 0.0 0.02060/2061 52,253.1 529.5 486.7 404.4 60.2 0.0 0.0




Table 4-2Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) — Newfoundland andLabrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 508.9 4.5 4.6 0.5 0.4 -1.8 0.22010/2011 507.5 4.5 4.6 0.5 0.4 -1.6 0.22011/2012 506.2 4.4 4.7 0.5 0.4 -1.3 0.22012/2013 504.9 4.4 4.7 0.5 0.4 -1.1 0.22013/2014 503.8 4.3 4.8 0.5 0.4 -0.9 0.12014/2015 502.7 4.3 4.8 0.5 0.4 -0.7 0.12015/2016 501.8 4.2 4.9 0.5 0.4 -0.4 0.12016/2017 500.9 4.2 5.0 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.12017/2018 500.1 4.2 5.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.02018/2019 499.4 4.1 5.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.02019/2020 498.8 4.1 5.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.02020/2021 498.2 4.0 5.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.02021/2022 497.6 4.0 5.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.02022/2023 497.1 3.9 5.4 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.02023/2024 496.6 3.9 5.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.02024/2025 496.2 3.8 5.6 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.02025/2026 495.7 3.8 5.7 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.02026/2027 495.2 3.7 5.8 0.5 0.3 1.4 0.02027/2028 494.6 3.7 5.9 0.5 0.3 1.5 0.02028/2029 494.1 3.6 6.0 0.5 0.3 1.6 0.02029/2030 493.5 3.6 6.1 0.5 0.3 1.7 0.02030/2031 492.8 3.6 6.2 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.02031/2032 492.2 3.6 6.3 0.5 0.3 1.9 0.02032/2033 491.5 3.6 6.4 0.5 0.3 2.0 0.02033/2034 490.8 3.5 6.5 0.5 0.3 2.1 0.02034/2035 490.1 3.5 6.7 0.5 0.3 2.2 0.02035/2036 489.4 3.6 6.8 0.5 0.3 2.3 0.0


Table 4-3Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) — Prince EdwardIsland, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 141.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.12010/2011 141.5 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.12011/2012 142.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.12012/2013 142.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.12013/2014 143.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.02014/2015 143.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.02015/2016 144.0 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.4 0.02016/2017 144.5 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.4 0.02017/2018 145.0 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.4 0.02018/2019 145.5 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.4 0.02019/2020 146.0 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.3 0.02020/2021 146.5 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.3 0.02021/2022 147.1 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.3 0.02022/2023 147.6 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.02023/2024 148.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.02024/2025 148.7 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.02025/2026 149.2 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.02026/2027 149.7 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.02027/2028 150.2 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.02028/2029 150.7 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.02029/2030 151.1 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.02030/2031 151.6 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.02031/2032 152.0 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.02032/2033 152.4 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.02033/2034 152.7 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.02034/2035 153.1 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.02035/2036 153.4 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0




Table 4-4Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) — NovaScotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 938.2 9.0 8.6 2.6 0.9 -2.4 0.82010/2011 938.6 8.9 8.6 2.6 0.9 -2.2 0.72011/2012 939.1 8.9 8.6 2.6 0.9 -2.0 0.62012/2013 939.6 8.9 8.7 2.5 0.9 -1.8 0.52013/2014 940.1 8.9 8.7 2.5 0.9 -1.6 0.42014/2015 940.7 8.9 8.8 2.5 0.9 -1.4 0.32015/2016 941.3 8.8 8.9 2.5 0.9 -1.2 0.32016/2017 942.0 8.8 8.9 2.5 0.9 -1.0 0.22017/2018 942.7 8.8 9.0 2.5 0.9 -0.8 0.12018/2019 943.4 8.7 9.1 2.5 0.9 -0.6 0.02019/2020 944.1 8.7 9.2 2.5 0.9 -0.3 0.02020/2021 944.8 8.6 9.3 2.5 0.9 -0.1 0.02021/2022 945.7 8.5 9.4 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.02022/2023 946.6 8.4 9.5 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.02023/2024 947.5 8.3 9.6 2.5 0.9 0.5 0.02024/2025 948.3 8.2 9.7 2.5 0.9 0.7 0.02025/2026 949.2 8.1 9.9 2.5 0.9 0.9 0.02026/2027 950.0 8.0 10.0 2.5 0.9 1.0 0.02027/2028 950.6 7.9 10.2 2.5 0.9 1.2 0.02028/2029 951.2 7.9 10.3 2.5 0.9 1.3 0.02029/2030 951.7 7.8 10.5 2.5 0.9 1.5 0.02030/2031 952.1 7.7 10.7 2.5 0.9 1.6 0.02031/2032 952.4 7.6 10.9 2.5 0.9 1.7 0.02032/2033 952.6 7.6 11.0 2.5 0.9 1.9 0.02033/2034 952.6 7.6 11.2 2.5 0.9 2.0 0.02034/2035 952.6 7.6 11.4 2.5 0.9 2.1 0.02035/2036 952.5 7.6 11.6 2.5 0.9 2.3 0.0


Table 4-5Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) — NewBrunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 749.5 7.1 6.4 1.6 0.7 -1.4 0.52010/2011 750.3 7.1 6.4 1.6 0.7 -1.2 0.42011/2012 751.0 7.0 6.5 1.6 0.6 -1.1 0.42012/2013 751.8 7.0 6.6 1.6 0.6 -0.9 0.32013/2014 752.6 7.0 6.6 1.6 0.6 -0.8 0.32014/2015 753.3 6.9 6.7 1.6 0.6 -0.6 0.22015/2016 754.1 6.9 6.8 1.6 0.6 -0.5 0.22016/2017 754.9 6.9 6.8 1.6 0.6 -0.3 0.12017/2018 755.6 6.8 6.9 1.6 0.6 -0.2 0.12018/2019 756.3 6.8 7.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.02019/2020 757.0 6.7 7.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.02020/2021 757.7 6.7 7.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.02021/2022 758.4 6.6 7.3 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.02022/2023 759.1 6.5 7.4 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.02023/2024 759.7 6.4 7.5 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.02024/2025 760.2 6.4 7.6 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.02025/2026 760.7 6.3 7.7 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.02026/2027 761.1 6.2 7.8 1.6 0.6 0.9 0.02027/2028 761.4 6.1 7.9 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.02028/2029 761.6 6.1 8.1 1.6 0.6 1.1 0.02029/2030 761.7 6.0 8.2 1.6 0.6 1.2 0.02030/2031 761.6 6.0 8.4 1.6 0.6 1.3 0.02031/2032 761.5 5.9 8.5 1.6 0.6 1.4 0.02032/2033 761.3 5.9 8.7 1.6 0.6 1.5 0.02033/2034 761.0 5.9 8.9 1.6 0.6 1.6 0.02034/2035 760.7 5.9 9.0 1.6 0.6 1.7 0.02035/2036 760.2 5.9 9.2 1.6 0.6 1.9 0.0




Table 4-6Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) —Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 7,828.9 88.4 59.2 45.3 6.9 -12.2 7.42010/2011 7,891.7 89.1 60.1 45.3 6.9 -12.1 6.62011/2012 7,953.5 89.6 61.0 45.3 6.9 -12.0 5.82012/2013 8,014.3 90.1 62.0 46.0 7.0 -12.0 4.92013/2014 8,074.4 90.5 63.0 46.3 7.0 -11.9 4.12014/2015 8,133.4 90.7 64.0 46.6 7.0 -11.9 3.32015/2016 8,191.2 90.9 64.9 47.0 7.0 -11.9 2.52016/2017 8,247.8 91.1 65.8 47.3 7.0 -11.9 1.62017/2018 8,303.2 91.1 66.7 47.6 7.0 -11.9 0.82018/2019 8,357.2 91.2 67.6 47.9 7.0 -11.9 0.02019/2020 8,409.7 91.1 68.6 48.2 7.1 -11.8 0.02020/2021 8,461.5 90.9 69.6 48.5 7.1 -11.7 0.02021/2022 8,512.5 90.7 70.6 48.8 7.1 -11.6 0.02022/2023 8,562.6 90.3 71.6 49.1 7.1 -11.5 0.02023/2024 8,611.7 89.8 72.6 49.4 7.1 -11.4 0.02024/2025 8,659.8 89.2 73.7 49.7 7.1 -11.2 0.02025/2026 8,706.6 88.6 74.8 49.9 7.2 -11.1 0.02026/2027 8,752.0 87.9 76.0 50.2 7.2 -11.0 0.02027/2028 8,796.0 87.3 77.2 50.4 7.2 -10.9 0.02028/2029 8,838.4 86.7 78.5 50.7 7.2 -10.8 0.02029/2030 8,879.4 86.2 79.8 50.9 7.2 -10.7 0.02030/2031 8,918.8 85.9 81.2 51.1 7.2 -10.6 0.02031/2032 8,956.9 85.8 82.6 51.4 7.2 -10.5 0.02032/2033 8,993.7 85.9 84.1 51.6 7.2 -10.5 0.02033/2034 9,029.4 86.2 85.7 51.8 7.2 -10.5 0.02034/2035 9,063.9 86.6 87.2 52.0 7.2 -10.5 0.02035/2036 9,097.7 87.3 88.8 52.2 7.2 -10.4 0.0


Table 4-7Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) —Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 13,069.2 147.1 91.0 123.6 21.8 -17.4 20.22010/2011 13,230.0 148.9 92.6 123.6 21.9 -17.6 18.02011/2012 13,388.4 150.7 94.1 123.6 22.0 -17.9 15.72012/2013 13,544.4 152.7 95.7 128.1 22.1 -18.2 13.52013/2014 13,702.7 154.7 97.3 129.6 22.2 -18.5 11.22014/2015 13,860.4 156.6 98.8 131.1 22.3 -18.7 9.02015/2016 14,017.3 158.4 100.4 132.6 22.4 -19.0 6.72016/2017 14,173.3 160.2 102.0 134.1 22.5 -19.3 4.52017/2018 14,328.3 161.7 103.5 135.5 22.6 -19.5 2.22018/2019 14,482.2 163.2 105.1 137.0 22.7 -19.8 0.02019/2020 14,634.8 164.4 106.7 138.4 22.8 -20.0 0.02020/2021 14,788.1 165.4 108.2 139.9 22.9 -20.3 0.02021/2022 14,941.9 166.2 109.8 141.3 23.0 -20.5 0.02022/2023 15,096.2 166.8 111.4 142.8 23.1 -20.7 0.02023/2024 15,250.5 167.1 113.2 144.3 23.2 -20.9 0.02024/2025 15,404.6 167.3 115.0 145.7 23.3 -21.1 0.02025/2026 15,558.2 167.3 116.9 147.2 23.4 -21.2 0.02026/2027 15,711.2 167.1 118.8 148.6 23.5 -21.3 0.02027/2028 15,863.3 166.9 120.9 150.0 23.6 -21.5 0.02028/2029 16,014.3 166.7 123.1 151.5 23.7 -21.6 0.02029/2030 16,164.0 166.5 125.5 152.9 23.8 -21.6 0.02030/2031 16,312.5 166.4 128.0 154.3 23.9 -21.7 0.02031/2032 16,459.5 166.5 130.7 155.7 24.0 -21.8 0.02032/2033 16,605.3 166.7 133.4 157.1 24.1 -21.9 0.02033/2034 16,749.8 167.2 136.3 158.4 24.1 -21.9 0.02034/2035 16,893.1 167.9 139.2 159.8 24.2 -22.0 0.02035/2036 17,035.4 168.9 142.3 161.1 24.3 -22.1 0.0




Table 4-8Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) —Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 1,222.0 16.0 9.8 10.4 1.5 -4.6 1.02010/2011 1,233.4 16.2 9.9 10.4 1.5 -4.6 0.92011/2012 1,245.0 16.4 9.9 10.4 1.5 -4.6 0.82012/2013 1,256.5 16.6 10.0 10.6 1.5 -4.6 0.72013/2014 1,268.3 16.8 10.1 10.7 1.5 -4.6 0.62014/2015 1,280.3 16.9 10.1 10.8 1.5 -4.6 0.52015/2016 1,292.3 17.1 10.2 10.9 1.5 -4.6 0.32016/2017 1,304.4 17.2 10.2 11.0 1.6 -4.6 0.22017/2018 1,316.5 17.3 10.3 11.1 1.6 -4.5 0.12018/2019 1,328.6 17.4 10.4 11.2 1.6 -4.5 0.02019/2020 1,340.8 17.5 10.4 11.3 1.6 -4.5 0.02020/2021 1,353.1 17.5 10.5 11.4 1.6 -4.5 0.02021/2022 1,365.4 17.6 10.6 11.5 1.6 -4.5 0.02022/2023 1,377.8 17.6 10.6 11.6 1.6 -4.5 0.02023/2024 1,390.3 17.6 10.7 11.7 1.6 -4.5 0.02024/2025 1,402.7 17.6 10.8 11.8 1.6 -4.5 0.02025/2026 1,415.2 17.6 10.9 11.9 1.6 -4.5 0.02026/2027 1,427.7 17.6 11.1 12.1 1.6 -4.5 0.02027/2028 1,440.1 17.6 11.2 12.2 1.6 -4.5 0.02028/2029 1,452.5 17.6 11.3 12.3 1.6 -4.5 0.02029/2030 1,464.9 17.7 11.5 12.4 1.7 -4.5 0.02030/2031 1,477.3 17.7 11.7 12.5 1.7 -4.5 0.02031/2032 1,489.6 17.8 11.9 12.6 1.7 -4.5 0.02032/2033 1,502.0 17.9 12.1 12.7 1.7 -4.5 0.02033/2034 1,514.3 18.0 12.3 12.8 1.7 -4.5 0.02034/2035 1,526.7 18.2 12.5 12.9 1.7 -4.5 0.02035/2036 1,539.1 18.3 12.7 13.0 1.7 -4.5 0.0


Table 4-9Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) —Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 1,030.1 14.0 9.0 3.2 0.7 3.0 0.72010/2011 1,041.3 14.2 9.0 3.2 0.7 3.2 0.62011/2012 1,052.8 14.5 9.0 3.2 0.7 3.3 0.52012/2013 1,064.6 14.7 9.0 3.3 0.7 3.4 0.42013/2014 1,076.7 14.9 9.1 3.4 0.7 3.5 0.42014/2015 1,089.1 15.0 9.1 3.4 0.7 3.6 0.32015/2016 1,101.7 15.1 9.1 3.5 0.7 3.8 0.22016/2017 1,114.4 15.2 9.1 3.5 0.7 3.9 0.12017/2018 1,127.3 15.3 9.2 3.5 0.7 4.0 0.12018/2019 1,140.4 15.3 9.2 3.6 0.7 4.2 0.02019/2020 1,153.5 15.3 9.2 3.6 0.7 4.3 0.02020/2021 1,166.7 15.3 9.3 3.7 0.7 4.4 0.02021/2022 1,180.0 15.2 9.4 3.7 0.7 4.5 0.02022/2023 1,193.4 15.2 9.4 3.7 0.8 4.6 0.02023/2024 1,206.7 15.1 9.5 3.8 0.8 4.7 0.02024/2025 1,220.1 15.1 9.6 3.8 0.8 4.8 0.02025/2026 1,233.5 15.1 9.7 3.9 0.8 4.9 0.02026/2027 1,246.9 15.1 9.8 3.9 0.8 4.9 0.02027/2028 1,260.2 15.1 9.9 4.0 0.8 5.0 0.02028/2029 1,273.5 15.1 10.1 4.0 0.8 5.0 0.02029/2030 1,286.8 15.2 10.2 4.0 0.8 5.0 0.02030/2031 1,300.0 15.2 10.4 4.1 0.8 5.1 0.02031/2032 1,313.3 15.4 10.6 4.1 0.8 5.1 0.02032/2033 1,326.5 15.5 10.7 4.2 0.8 5.2 0.02033/2034 1,339.8 15.7 11.0 4.2 0.8 5.2 0.02034/2035 1,353.1 15.9 11.2 4.2 0.8 5.3 0.02035/2036 1,366.5 16.1 11.4 4.3 0.8 5.3 0.0




Table 4-10Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) —Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 3,687.7 53.8 20.8 21.7 6.4 22.2 5.32010/2011 3,763.5 55.0 21.3 21.7 6.4 21.5 4.72011/2012 3,838.7 56.1 21.7 21.7 6.5 20.8 4.12012/2013 3,913.2 57.2 22.2 24.1 6.6 20.2 3.52013/2014 3,989.4 58.2 22.7 24.5 6.7 19.6 2.92014/2015 4,065.4 59.1 23.1 25.0 6.7 19.0 2.42015/2016 4,140.9 59.8 23.6 25.5 6.8 18.5 1.82016/2017 4,216.1 60.5 24.1 25.9 6.9 17.9 1.22017/2018 4,290.6 61.0 24.6 26.4 6.9 17.4 0.62018/2019 4,364.4 61.4 25.1 26.8 7.0 16.9 0.02019/2020 4,437.4 61.7 25.6 27.3 7.1 16.3 0.02020/2021 4,510.1 61.9 26.1 27.7 7.2 15.8 0.02021/2022 4,582.3 62.1 26.6 28.2 7.2 15.3 0.02022/2023 4,654.0 62.1 27.1 28.6 7.3 14.8 0.02023/2024 4,725.1 62.2 27.7 29.0 7.3 14.3 0.02024/2025 4,795.7 62.2 28.3 29.5 7.4 13.9 0.02025/2026 4,865.6 62.3 28.9 29.9 7.5 13.5 0.02026/2027 4,934.9 62.4 29.6 30.3 7.5 13.1 0.02027/2028 5,003.5 62.5 30.2 30.8 7.6 12.7 0.02028/2029 5,071.7 62.7 31.0 31.2 7.6 12.3 0.02029/2030 5,139.3 63.0 31.7 31.6 7.7 12.0 0.02030/2031 5,206.4 63.4 32.5 32.0 7.7 11.6 0.02031/2032 5,273.2 63.8 33.3 32.4 7.8 11.3 0.02032/2033 5,339.7 64.4 34.2 32.8 7.8 10.9 0.02033/2034 5,405.8 65.1 35.1 33.2 7.9 10.6 0.02034/2035 5,471.8 66.0 36.0 33.6 7.9 10.3 0.02035/2036 5,537.7 66.9 37.0 34.0 8.0 9.9 0.0


Table 4-11Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) — BritishColumbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 4,455.2 47.5 32.5 42.4 7.8 15.4 9.72010/2011 4,529.9 48.4 33.1 42.4 7.8 15.5 8.72011/2012 4,604.0 49.2 33.7 42.4 7.9 15.7 7.62012/2013 4,677.4 50.1 34.2 45.3 7.9 15.8 6.52013/2014 4,753.0 51.0 34.8 46.0 8.0 15.9 5.42014/2015 4,828.6 51.9 35.4 46.7 8.0 16.0 4.32015/2016 4,904.2 52.7 35.9 47.5 8.1 16.1 3.22016/2017 4,979.7 53.4 36.5 48.2 8.2 16.2 2.22017/2018 5,055.0 54.1 37.1 48.9 8.2 16.2 1.12018/2019 5,130.0 54.6 37.7 49.6 8.3 16.3 0.02019/2020 5,204.5 55.1 38.3 50.4 8.3 16.3 0.02020/2021 5,279.7 55.5 38.9 51.1 8.4 16.3 0.02021/2022 5,355.3 55.9 39.5 51.8 8.5 16.3 0.02022/2023 5,431.2 56.1 40.2 52.6 8.5 16.2 0.02023/2024 5,507.4 56.4 40.9 53.3 8.6 16.2 0.02024/2025 5,583.7 56.5 41.6 54.0 8.6 16.1 0.02025/2026 5,660.2 56.7 42.4 54.8 8.7 16.0 0.02026/2027 5,736.7 56.8 43.2 55.5 8.7 16.0 0.02027/2028 5,813.1 57.0 44.0 56.2 8.8 15.9 0.02028/2029 5,889.4 57.1 44.9 57.0 8.8 15.8 0.02029/2030 5,965.6 57.3 45.9 57.7 8.9 15.8 0.02030/2031 6,041.6 57.6 46.9 58.5 8.9 15.7 0.02031/2032 6,117.5 57.9 48.0 59.2 9.0 15.7 0.02032/2033 6,193.2 58.3 49.1 59.9 9.0 15.6 0.02033/2034 6,268.9 58.7 50.3 60.7 9.1 15.6 0.02034/2035 6,344.5 59.3 51.5 61.4 9.1 15.5 0.02035/2036 6,420.0 60.0 52.8 62.1 9.2 15.5 0.0




Table 4-12Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) — Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036

Period Populationat the beginning

of period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 33.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02010/2011 34.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02011/2012 34.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02012/2013 34.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02013/2014 35.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02014/2015 35.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02015/2016 36.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02016/2017 36.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02017/2018 37.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02018/2019 37.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02019/2020 37.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02020/2021 38.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02021/2022 38.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02022/2023 39.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02023/2024 39.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02024/2025 39.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02025/2026 40.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02026/2027 40.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02027/2028 40.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02028/2029 41.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02029/2030 41.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02030/2031 41.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02031/2032 42.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02032/2033 42.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02033/2034 42.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02034/2035 43.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.02035/2036 43.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0


Table 4-13Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) — NorthwestTerritories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 43.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 43.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 44.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 44.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 45.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 45.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 45.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02016/2017 46.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02017/2018 46.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02018/2019 46.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02019/2020 47.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02020/2021 47.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02021/2022 47.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02022/2023 48.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02023/2024 48.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02024/2025 48.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02025/2026 49.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02026/2027 49.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02027/2028 49.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02028/2029 50.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02029/2030 50.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02030/2031 50.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02031/2032 51.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02032/2033 51.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02033/2034 51.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02034/2035 52.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 52.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Table 4-14Components of population growth, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2) —Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 32.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.02010/2011 32.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 33.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 33.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 33.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 34.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 34.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02016/2017 34.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02017/2018 35.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02018/2019 35.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02019/2020 35.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02020/2021 36.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02021/2022 36.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02022/2023 36.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02023/2024 36.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02024/2025 37.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02025/2026 37.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02026/2027 37.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02027/2028 37.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02028/2029 38.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02029/2030 38.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02030/2031 38.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02031/2032 38.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02032/2033 39.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02033/2034 39.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02034/2035 39.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02035/2036 39.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 33,739.9 390.5 243.5 252.5 47.2 0.0 46.02010/2011 34,138.1 395.2 247.3 252.5 47.4 0.0 40.92011/2012 34,532.0 399.8 251.0 252.5 47.6 0.0 35.82012/2013 34,921.4 404.3 254.9 263.1 47.8 0.0 30.72013/2014 35,316.8 408.6 258.7 266.4 48.1 0.0 25.52014/2015 35,710.6 412.7 262.6 269.6 48.3 0.0 20.42015/2016 36,102.4 416.3 266.4 272.8 48.6 0.0 15.32016/2017 36,491.9 419.5 270.3 276.0 48.8 0.0 10.22017/2018 36,878.6 422.2 274.2 279.2 49.1 0.0 5.12018/2019 37,261.8 424.5 278.2 282.4 49.4 0.0 0.02019/2020 37,641.1 426.2 282.2 285.5 49.6 0.0 0.02020/2021 38,021.0 427.5 286.4 288.6 49.9 0.0 0.02021/2022 38,400.9 428.2 290.5 291.8 50.1 0.0 0.02022/2023 38,780.3 428.5 294.8 294.9 50.4 0.0 0.02023/2024 39,158.5 428.3 299.3 298.1 50.6 0.0 0.02024/2025 39,535.0 427.8 304.1 301.2 50.8 0.0 0.02025/2026 39,909.1 427.1 309.1 304.3 51.0 0.0 0.02026/2027 40,280.4 426.2 314.3 307.4 51.3 0.0 0.02027/2028 40,648.4 425.4 319.9 310.5 51.5 0.0 0.02028/2029 41,012.8 424.7 325.8 313.5 51.7 0.0 0.02029/2030 41,373.6 424.4 332.0 316.5 51.9 0.0 0.02030/2031 41,730.7 424.5 338.5 319.5 52.0 0.0 0.02031/2032 42,084.1 425.2 345.4 322.5 52.2 0.0 0.02032/2033 42,434.2 426.6 352.5 325.4 52.4 0.0 0.02033/2034 42,781.3 428.7 359.9 328.4 52.6 0.0 0.02034/2035 43,125.8 431.5 367.6 331.3 52.8 0.0 0.02035/2036 43,468.2 434.9 375.4 334.2 53.0 0.0 0.02036/2037 43,808.9 439.0 383.4 337.0 53.2 0.0 0.02037/2038 44,148.4 443.6 391.4 339.9 53.4 0.0 0.02038/2039 44,487.0 448.6 399.5 342.8 53.6 0.0 0.02039/2040 44,825.3 453.8 407.4 345.6 53.8 0.0 0.02040/2041 45,163.4 459.2 415.3 348.5 54.1 0.0 0.02041/2042 45,501.7 464.5 422.9 351.3 54.3 0.0 0.02042/2043 45,840.3 469.8 430.2 354.2 54.6 0.0 0.02043/2044 46,179.5 474.8 437.3 357.1 54.8 0.0 0.02044/2045 46,519.3 479.7 444.0 359.9 55.1 0.0 0.02045/2046 46,859.8 484.2 450.3 362.8 55.4 0.0 0.02046/2047 47,201.1 488.4 456.2 365.7 55.7 0.0 0.02047/2048 47,543.4 492.3 461.5 368.6 56.0 0.0 0.02048/2049 47,886.8 495.8 466.4 371.5 56.3 0.0 0.02049/2050 48,231.4 499.1 470.8 374.4 56.6 0.0 0.02050/2051 48,577.6 502.0 474.6 377.3 56.9 0.0 0.02051/2052 48,925.4 504.6 478.0 380.3 57.2 0.0 0.02052/2053 49,275.2 507.1 480.8 383.2 57.4 0.0 0.02053/2054 49,627.3 509.3 483.0 386.2 57.7 0.0 0.02054/2055 49,982.0 511.4 484.7 389.2 58.0 0.0 0.02055/2056 50,339.8 513.4 486.0 392.2 58.3 0.0 0.02056/2057 50,701.1 515.3 486.7 395.2 58.6 0.0 0.02057/2058 51,066.3 517.3 487.1 398.3 58.9 0.0 0.02058/2059 51,435.8 519.3 487.2 401.4 59.2 0.0 0.02059/2060 51,810.1 521.4 487.1 404.5 59.5 0.0 0.02060/2061 52,189.4 523.7 487.0 407.7 59.8 0.0 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 508.9 4.6 4.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.22010/2011 510.1 4.5 4.6 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.22011/2012 511.3 4.5 4.7 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.22012/2013 512.4 4.5 4.8 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.22013/2014 513.6 4.5 4.8 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.12014/2015 514.9 4.5 4.9 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.12015/2016 516.2 4.5 4.9 0.5 0.4 1.5 0.12016/2017 517.5 4.4 5.0 0.5 0.4 1.7 0.12017/2018 518.8 4.4 5.1 0.5 0.4 1.8 0.02018/2019 520.2 4.4 5.2 0.5 0.4 1.9 0.02019/2020 521.5 4.4 5.2 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.02020/2021 522.8 4.4 5.3 0.5 0.4 2.1 0.02021/2022 524.1 4.3 5.4 0.5 0.4 2.2 0.02022/2023 525.4 4.3 5.5 0.5 0.4 2.3 0.02023/2024 526.7 4.2 5.6 0.5 0.4 2.4 0.02024/2025 527.8 4.2 5.7 0.5 0.4 2.5 0.02025/2026 529.0 4.1 5.8 0.5 0.4 2.6 0.02026/2027 530.0 4.1 5.9 0.5 0.4 2.6 0.02027/2028 531.0 4.1 6.1 0.5 0.4 2.7 0.02028/2029 531.9 4.0 6.2 0.6 0.4 2.8 0.02029/2030 532.7 4.0 6.3 0.6 0.4 2.9 0.02030/2031 533.4 4.0 6.4 0.6 0.4 2.9 0.02031/2032 534.1 3.9 6.6 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.02032/2033 534.7 3.9 6.7 0.6 0.4 3.1 0.02033/2034 535.2 3.9 6.8 0.6 0.4 3.2 0.02034/2035 535.6 3.9 6.9 0.6 0.4 3.2 0.02035/2036 536.1 3.9 7.1 0.6 0.4 3.3 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 141.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.12010/2011 142.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.12011/2012 144.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.12012/2013 145.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.12013/2014 146.9 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.02014/2015 148.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.02015/2016 149.9 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.02016/2017 151.4 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.02017/2018 152.9 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02018/2019 154.4 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02019/2020 155.9 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02020/2021 157.4 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02021/2022 159.0 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02022/2023 160.5 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02023/2024 162.0 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02024/2025 163.5 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02025/2026 164.9 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02026/2027 166.4 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02027/2028 167.8 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.02028/2029 169.2 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.02029/2030 170.5 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.02030/2031 171.8 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.02031/2032 173.1 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.02032/2033 174.4 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.02033/2034 175.6 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.02034/2035 176.7 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.02035/2036 177.9 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 938.2 9.0 8.6 2.6 0.9 2.8 0.82010/2011 943.8 9.0 8.6 2.6 0.9 2.9 0.72011/2012 949.5 9.1 8.7 2.6 0.9 3.0 0.62012/2013 955.1 9.2 8.7 2.5 0.9 3.1 0.52013/2014 960.8 9.2 8.8 2.6 0.9 3.2 0.42014/2015 966.4 9.3 8.9 2.6 0.9 3.3 0.32015/2016 972.1 9.3 9.0 2.6 0.9 3.4 0.32016/2017 977.8 9.3 9.0 2.6 0.9 3.5 0.22017/2018 983.5 9.4 9.1 2.6 0.9 3.7 0.12018/2019 989.1 9.4 9.3 2.6 0.9 3.8 0.02019/2020 994.7 9.4 9.4 2.6 0.9 3.9 0.02020/2021 1,000.4 9.4 9.5 2.7 0.9 4.0 0.02021/2022 1,006.0 9.3 9.6 2.7 0.9 4.2 0.02022/2023 1,011.7 9.3 9.7 2.7 0.9 4.3 0.02023/2024 1,017.2 9.2 9.9 2.7 0.9 4.4 0.02024/2025 1,022.7 9.2 10.1 2.7 0.9 4.5 0.02025/2026 1,028.1 9.1 10.2 2.7 0.9 4.6 0.02026/2027 1,033.4 9.0 10.4 2.8 0.9 4.7 0.02027/2028 1,038.5 8.9 10.6 2.8 0.9 4.8 0.02028/2029 1,043.5 8.9 10.8 2.8 0.9 4.9 0.02029/2030 1,048.3 8.8 11.0 2.8 0.9 5.0 0.02030/2031 1,052.9 8.7 11.2 2.8 0.9 5.1 0.02031/2032 1,057.4 8.7 11.4 2.8 0.9 5.2 0.02032/2033 1,061.7 8.7 11.6 2.8 0.9 5.3 0.02033/2034 1,065.9 8.7 11.9 2.8 0.9 5.4 0.02034/2035 1,070.0 8.7 12.1 2.8 0.9 5.4 0.02035/2036 1,073.9 8.7 12.3 2.9 0.9 5.5 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 749.5 7.1 6.4 1.6 0.7 2.1 0.52010/2011 753.8 7.1 6.5 1.6 0.7 2.2 0.42011/2012 758.1 7.2 6.5 1.6 0.7 2.3 0.42012/2013 762.3 7.2 6.6 1.6 0.7 2.4 0.32013/2014 766.5 7.2 6.7 1.6 0.7 2.4 0.32014/2015 770.8 7.2 6.7 1.6 0.7 2.5 0.22015/2016 775.0 7.3 6.8 1.6 0.7 2.6 0.22016/2017 779.2 7.3 6.9 1.6 0.7 2.7 0.12017/2018 783.4 7.3 7.0 1.7 0.7 2.8 0.12018/2019 787.5 7.3 7.1 1.7 0.7 2.9 0.02019/2020 791.6 7.3 7.2 1.7 0.7 3.0 0.02020/2021 795.7 7.2 7.3 1.7 0.7 3.0 0.02021/2022 799.7 7.2 7.4 1.7 0.7 3.1 0.02022/2023 803.7 7.2 7.5 1.7 0.7 3.2 0.02023/2024 807.6 7.1 7.6 1.7 0.7 3.3 0.02024/2025 811.4 7.0 7.7 1.7 0.7 3.3 0.02025/2026 815.2 7.0 7.9 1.7 0.7 3.4 0.02026/2027 818.8 6.9 8.0 1.7 0.7 3.5 0.02027/2028 822.2 6.9 8.2 1.7 0.7 3.5 0.02028/2029 825.6 6.8 8.3 1.7 0.7 3.6 0.02029/2030 828.8 6.8 8.5 1.8 0.7 3.7 0.02030/2031 831.9 6.7 8.7 1.8 0.7 3.8 0.02031/2032 834.8 6.7 8.8 1.8 0.7 3.8 0.02032/2033 837.7 6.7 9.0 1.8 0.7 3.9 0.02033/2034 840.4 6.7 9.2 1.8 0.7 4.0 0.02034/2035 843.0 6.7 9.4 1.8 0.7 4.0 0.02035/2036 845.5 6.8 9.6 1.8 0.7 4.1 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 7,828.9 88.5 59.2 45.3 6.9 -7.3 7.42010/2011 7,896.7 89.3 60.0 45.3 6.9 -7.2 6.62011/2012 7,963.7 90.1 61.0 45.3 7.0 -7.2 5.82012/2013 8,029.7 90.7 61.9 46.0 7.0 -7.2 4.92013/2014 8,095.3 91.2 62.9 46.4 7.0 -7.2 4.12014/2015 8,159.8 91.6 63.9 46.8 7.0 -7.2 3.32015/2016 8,223.4 91.9 64.8 47.2 7.0 -7.2 2.52016/2017 8,285.9 92.1 65.7 47.5 7.0 -7.1 1.62017/2018 8,347.3 92.2 66.6 47.9 7.1 -7.1 0.82018/2019 8,407.4 92.3 67.5 48.2 7.1 -7.0 0.02019/2020 8,466.3 92.3 68.5 48.5 7.1 -6.9 0.02020/2021 8,524.6 92.2 69.5 48.9 7.1 -6.8 0.02021/2022 8,582.2 92.0 70.5 49.2 7.2 -6.7 0.02022/2023 8,639.1 91.6 71.4 49.5 7.2 -6.6 0.02023/2024 8,695.1 91.2 72.4 49.9 7.2 -6.5 0.02024/2025 8,750.1 90.7 73.4 50.2 7.2 -6.4 0.02025/2026 8,803.9 90.1 74.5 50.5 7.2 -6.3 0.02026/2027 8,856.5 89.5 75.7 50.8 7.2 -6.2 0.02027/2028 8,907.7 89.0 76.9 51.1 7.3 -6.1 0.02028/2029 8,957.4 88.5 78.1 51.4 7.3 -6.1 0.02029/2030 9,005.8 88.1 79.4 51.6 7.3 -6.1 0.02030/2031 9,052.8 87.9 80.7 51.9 7.3 -6.0 0.02031/2032 9,098.6 87.8 82.1 52.2 7.3 -6.0 0.02032/2033 9,143.2 88.0 83.6 52.4 7.3 -5.9 0.02033/2034 9,186.7 88.4 85.1 52.7 7.3 -5.9 0.02034/2035 9,229.5 88.9 86.6 52.9 7.3 -5.8 0.02035/2036 9,271.5 89.7 88.2 53.2 7.3 -5.8 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 13,069.2 147.2 91.0 123.6 21.8 -15.2 20.22010/2011 13,232.2 148.9 92.6 123.6 21.9 -15.5 18.02011/2012 13,392.8 150.8 94.2 123.6 22.0 -15.7 15.72012/2013 13,551.1 152.8 95.8 128.2 22.1 -16.0 13.52013/2014 13,711.7 154.8 97.3 129.7 22.2 -16.3 11.22014/2015 13,871.6 156.8 98.9 131.2 22.3 -16.7 9.02015/2016 14,030.7 158.7 100.5 132.7 22.4 -17.0 6.72016/2017 14,189.0 160.5 102.1 134.2 22.5 -17.3 4.52017/2018 14,346.3 162.1 103.6 135.7 22.6 -17.7 2.22018/2019 14,502.5 163.6 105.2 137.2 22.7 -18.0 0.02019/2020 14,657.3 164.8 106.8 138.6 22.8 -18.3 0.02020/2021 14,812.8 165.9 108.4 140.1 22.9 -18.6 0.02021/2022 14,968.9 166.7 110.0 141.6 23.1 -18.9 0.02022/2023 15,125.3 167.3 111.6 143.1 23.2 -19.2 0.02023/2024 15,281.7 167.7 113.3 144.5 23.3 -19.5 0.02024/2025 15,437.9 167.9 115.1 146.0 23.4 -19.7 0.02025/2026 15,593.5 167.9 117.0 147.5 23.5 -20.0 0.02026/2027 15,748.5 167.7 119.0 149.0 23.6 -20.1 0.02027/2028 15,902.5 167.5 121.1 150.4 23.7 -20.3 0.02028/2029 16,055.3 167.3 123.3 151.9 23.8 -20.4 0.02029/2030 16,206.9 167.0 125.7 153.3 23.9 -20.6 0.02030/2031 16,357.1 166.9 128.2 154.7 24.0 -20.7 0.02031/2032 16,505.9 167.0 130.8 156.1 24.0 -20.8 0.02032/2033 16,653.4 167.2 133.6 157.5 24.1 -20.9 0.02033/2034 16,799.5 167.7 136.4 158.9 24.2 -21.1 0.02034/2035 16,944.4 168.5 139.4 160.3 24.3 -21.2 0.02035/2036 17,088.2 169.4 142.5 161.6 24.4 -21.4 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 1,222.0 16.0 9.8 10.4 1.5 -4.9 1.02010/2011 1,233.1 16.2 9.9 10.4 1.5 -5.0 0.92011/2012 1,244.2 16.4 9.9 10.4 1.5 -5.0 0.82012/2013 1,255.3 16.6 10.0 10.6 1.5 -5.0 0.72013/2014 1,266.6 16.7 10.1 10.7 1.5 -5.1 0.62014/2015 1,278.0 16.9 10.1 10.8 1.5 -5.1 0.52015/2016 1,289.4 17.0 10.2 10.9 1.5 -5.1 0.32016/2017 1,300.8 17.1 10.2 11.0 1.6 -5.1 0.22017/2018 1,312.2 17.2 10.3 11.1 1.6 -5.1 0.12018/2019 1,323.6 17.3 10.4 11.2 1.6 -5.1 0.02019/2020 1,334.9 17.3 10.4 11.3 1.6 -5.1 0.02020/2021 1,346.4 17.3 10.5 11.4 1.6 -5.1 0.02021/2022 1,357.8 17.3 10.6 11.5 1.6 -5.1 0.02022/2023 1,369.3 17.3 10.7 11.6 1.6 -5.1 0.02023/2024 1,380.7 17.3 10.8 11.7 1.6 -5.1 0.02024/2025 1,392.2 17.3 10.9 11.8 1.6 -5.1 0.02025/2026 1,403.6 17.2 11.0 11.9 1.6 -5.1 0.02026/2027 1,415.0 17.2 11.1 11.9 1.6 -5.1 0.02027/2028 1,426.3 17.2 11.2 12.0 1.6 -5.1 0.02028/2029 1,437.5 17.2 11.4 12.1 1.6 -5.1 0.02029/2030 1,448.7 17.2 11.6 12.2 1.6 -5.1 0.02030/2031 1,459.8 17.2 11.7 12.3 1.6 -5.1 0.02031/2032 1,470.9 17.3 11.9 12.4 1.6 -5.1 0.02032/2033 1,481.9 17.4 12.1 12.5 1.6 -5.1 0.02033/2034 1,492.8 17.5 12.4 12.6 1.7 -5.1 0.02034/2035 1,503.7 17.6 12.6 12.7 1.7 -5.1 0.02035/2036 1,514.6 17.7 12.8 12.8 1.7 -5.2 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 1,030.1 13.9 9.0 3.2 0.7 -5.1 0.72010/2011 1,033.1 13.9 9.0 3.2 0.7 -4.9 0.62011/2012 1,036.2 13.9 9.0 3.2 0.7 -4.7 0.52012/2013 1,039.6 13.9 9.0 3.3 0.7 -4.5 0.42013/2014 1,043.1 13.9 9.0 3.3 0.7 -4.2 0.42014/2015 1,046.7 13.9 9.0 3.3 0.7 -4.0 0.32015/2016 1,050.5 13.8 9.0 3.3 0.7 -3.8 0.22016/2017 1,054.3 13.7 9.0 3.3 0.7 -3.5 0.12017/2018 1,058.2 13.6 9.0 3.3 0.7 -3.3 0.12018/2019 1,062.2 13.5 9.1 3.3 0.7 -3.1 0.02019/2020 1,066.1 13.3 9.1 3.3 0.7 -2.9 0.02020/2021 1,070.2 13.2 9.1 3.4 0.7 -2.7 0.02021/2022 1,074.2 13.1 9.1 3.4 0.7 -2.5 0.02022/2023 1,078.3 12.9 9.2 3.4 0.7 -2.4 0.02023/2024 1,082.3 12.8 9.2 3.4 0.7 -2.2 0.02024/2025 1,086.4 12.6 9.3 3.4 0.7 -2.1 0.02025/2026 1,090.4 12.5 9.3 3.4 0.7 -1.9 0.02026/2027 1,094.4 12.5 9.4 3.4 0.7 -1.8 0.02027/2028 1,098.4 12.4 9.5 3.4 0.7 -1.7 0.02028/2029 1,102.4 12.3 9.6 3.5 0.7 -1.6 0.02029/2030 1,106.4 12.3 9.7 3.5 0.7 -1.4 0.02030/2031 1,110.3 12.3 9.8 3.5 0.7 -1.3 0.02031/2032 1,114.3 12.3 10.0 3.5 0.7 -1.2 0.02032/2033 1,118.3 12.4 10.1 3.5 0.7 -1.1 0.02033/2034 1,122.3 12.4 10.3 3.5 0.7 -1.0 0.02034/2035 1,126.3 12.5 10.4 3.5 0.7 -0.8 0.02035/2036 1,130.4 12.6 10.6 3.5 0.7 -0.7 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 3,687.7 53.3 20.8 21.7 6.3 -11.5 5.32010/2011 3,729.4 53.7 21.2 21.7 6.4 -11.2 4.72011/2012 3,770.8 54.1 21.6 21.7 6.4 -10.9 4.12012/2013 3,811.8 54.3 22.0 23.4 6.4 -10.6 3.52013/2014 3,854.0 54.5 22.4 23.7 6.5 -10.3 2.92014/2015 3,896.0 54.6 22.8 23.9 6.5 -10.1 2.42015/2016 3,937.5 54.6 23.2 24.2 6.5 -9.8 1.82016/2017 3,978.6 54.6 23.7 24.5 6.5 -9.5 1.22017/2018 4,019.1 54.4 24.1 24.7 6.6 -9.3 0.62018/2019 4,058.9 54.2 24.5 24.9 6.6 -9.0 0.02019/2020 4,098.0 54.0 25.0 25.2 6.6 -8.8 0.02020/2021 4,136.8 53.7 25.4 25.4 6.6 -8.5 0.02021/2022 4,175.3 53.4 25.9 25.7 6.7 -8.3 0.02022/2023 4,213.5 53.1 26.4 25.9 6.7 -8.0 0.02023/2024 4,251.4 52.8 26.9 26.1 6.7 -7.8 0.02024/2025 4,288.9 52.6 27.5 26.4 6.7 -7.6 0.02025/2026 4,326.1 52.3 28.0 26.6 6.7 -7.3 0.02026/2027 4,362.9 52.2 28.6 26.8 6.8 -7.1 0.02027/2028 4,399.4 52.1 29.2 27.0 6.8 -6.9 0.02028/2029 4,435.5 52.1 29.9 27.3 6.8 -6.7 0.02029/2030 4,471.5 52.1 30.6 27.5 6.8 -6.5 0.02030/2031 4,507.1 52.3 31.3 27.7 6.8 -6.4 0.02031/2032 4,542.6 52.5 32.1 27.9 6.9 -6.2 0.02032/2033 4,577.9 52.8 32.9 28.1 6.9 -6.1 0.02033/2034 4,613.0 53.2 33.7 28.4 6.9 -5.9 0.02034/2035 4,648.0 53.7 34.6 28.6 6.9 -5.8 0.02035/2036 4,683.0 54.3 35.5 28.8 6.9 -5.7 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 4,455.2 47.7 32.5 42.4 7.8 37.9 9.72010/2011 4,552.7 49.0 33.1 42.4 7.9 37.4 8.72011/2012 4,649.3 50.4 33.7 42.4 7.9 36.9 7.62012/2013 4,744.9 51.7 34.3 45.9 8.0 36.5 6.52013/2014 4,843.1 53.1 34.9 46.9 8.1 36.0 5.42014/2015 4,941.4 54.4 35.5 47.8 8.2 35.5 4.32015/2016 5,039.7 55.7 36.1 48.8 8.3 35.0 3.22016/2017 5,137.9 56.9 36.8 49.7 8.4 34.5 2.22017/2018 5,236.0 57.9 37.4 50.7 8.5 33.9 1.12018/2019 5,333.7 58.9 38.0 51.6 8.5 33.4 0.02019/2020 5,431.1 59.8 38.7 52.6 8.6 32.9 0.02020/2021 5,529.0 60.5 39.3 53.5 8.7 32.4 0.02021/2022 5,627.4 61.2 40.0 54.5 8.8 31.9 0.02022/2023 5,726.1 61.8 40.7 55.4 8.9 31.3 0.02023/2024 5,825.1 62.3 41.4 56.4 9.0 30.8 0.02024/2025 5,924.1 62.7 42.2 57.3 9.0 30.3 0.02025/2026 6,023.2 63.0 43.0 58.3 9.1 29.8 0.02026/2027 6,122.2 63.4 43.9 59.2 9.2 29.4 0.02027/2028 6,221.1 63.7 44.8 60.2 9.3 28.9 0.02028/2029 6,319.8 64.0 45.8 61.1 9.3 28.4 0.02029/2030 6,418.2 64.3 46.8 62.1 9.4 28.0 0.02030/2031 6,516.4 64.7 47.9 63.1 9.5 27.6 0.02031/2032 6,614.4 65.2 49.1 64.0 9.6 27.2 0.02032/2033 6,712.1 65.7 50.3 64.9 9.6 26.8 0.02033/2034 6,809.7 66.4 51.5 65.9 9.7 26.4 0.02034/2035 6,907.2 67.2 52.8 66.8 9.8 26.0 0.02035/2036 7,004.6 68.0 54.2 67.8 9.8 25.6 0.0






of period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 33.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02010/2011 34.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02011/2012 34.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02012/2013 35.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02013/2014 35.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02014/2015 35.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02015/2016 36.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02016/2017 36.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02017/2018 37.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02018/2019 37.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02019/2020 37.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02020/2021 38.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02021/2022 38.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02022/2023 39.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02023/2024 39.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02024/2025 40.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02025/2026 40.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02026/2027 40.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02027/2028 41.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02028/2029 41.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02029/2030 41.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02030/2031 42.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02031/2032 42.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02032/2033 43.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02033/2034 43.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02034/2035 43.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02035/2036 44.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 43.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02010/2011 44.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02011/2012 44.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02012/2013 45.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02013/2014 46.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02014/2015 46.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02015/2016 47.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02016/2017 48.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02017/2018 48.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02018/2019 49.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02019/2020 49.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02020/2021 50.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02021/2022 50.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02022/2023 51.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02023/2024 52.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02024/2025 52.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02025/2026 53.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02026/2027 53.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02027/2028 54.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02028/2029 54.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02029/2030 55.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02030/2031 55.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02031/2032 56.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02032/2033 56.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02033/2034 57.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02034/2035 57.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 58.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 32.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 32.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 32.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 33.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 33.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 34.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 34.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02016/2017 34.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02017/2018 35.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02018/2019 35.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02019/2020 35.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02020/2021 36.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02021/2022 36.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02022/2023 36.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02023/2024 37.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02024/2025 37.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02025/2026 37.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02026/2027 37.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02027/2028 38.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02028/2029 38.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02029/2030 38.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02030/2031 39.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02031/2032 39.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02032/2033 39.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02033/2034 39.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.02034/2035 40.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.02035/2036 40.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 33,739.9 390.6 243.5 252.5 47.2 0.0 46.02010/2011 34,138.2 395.5 247.3 252.5 47.4 0.0 40.92011/2012 34,532.4 400.3 251.0 252.5 47.6 0.0 35.82012/2013 34,922.3 405.0 254.9 263.0 47.9 0.0 30.72013/2014 35,318.2 409.5 258.7 266.2 48.1 0.0 25.52014/2015 35,712.5 413.7 262.6 269.3 48.4 0.0 20.42015/2016 36,105.1 417.5 266.4 272.5 48.6 0.0 15.32016/2017 36,495.4 420.8 270.3 275.6 48.9 0.0 10.22017/2018 36,882.9 423.7 274.2 278.8 49.2 0.0 5.12018/2019 37,267.0 426.0 278.2 281.8 49.4 0.0 0.02019/2020 37,647.3 427.9 282.2 284.9 49.7 0.0 0.02020/2021 38,028.1 429.2 286.3 288.0 50.0 0.0 0.02021/2022 38,409.0 430.0 290.5 291.1 50.2 0.0 0.02022/2023 38,789.3 430.3 294.8 294.1 50.5 0.0 0.02023/2024 39,168.4 430.1 299.3 297.2 50.7 0.0 0.02024/2025 39,545.8 429.7 304.0 300.3 51.0 0.0 0.02025/2026 39,920.7 428.9 309.0 303.3 51.2 0.0 0.02026/2027 40,292.7 428.1 314.3 306.3 51.4 0.0 0.02027/2028 40,661.5 427.3 319.8 309.4 51.6 0.0 0.02028/2029 41,026.6 426.7 325.7 312.3 51.8 0.0 0.02029/2030 41,388.1 426.4 331.9 315.3 52.0 0.0 0.02030/2031 41,745.9 426.6 338.5 318.2 52.2 0.0 0.02031/2032 42,100.0 427.5 345.3 321.1 52.4 0.0 0.02032/2033 42,450.8 428.9 352.5 324.0 52.6 0.0 0.02033/2034 42,798.6 431.1 359.9 326.9 52.8 0.0 0.02034/2035 43,143.9 434.0 367.5 329.7 53.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 43,487.1 437.6 375.3 332.5 53.2 0.0 0.02036/2037 43,828.7 441.9 383.3 335.3 53.4 0.0 0.02037/2038 44,169.2 446.6 391.3 338.1 53.6 0.0 0.02038/2039 44,508.9 451.7 399.4 340.9 53.9 0.0 0.02039/2040 44,848.3 457.1 407.3 343.7 54.1 0.0 0.02040/2041 45,187.6 462.6 415.1 346.5 54.4 0.0 0.02041/2042 45,527.2 468.1 422.8 349.3 54.6 0.0 0.02042/2043 45,867.2 473.5 430.1 352.1 54.9 0.0 0.02043/2044 46,207.9 478.7 437.1 354.9 55.1 0.0 0.02044/2045 46,549.2 483.7 443.8 357.7 55.4 0.0 0.02045/2046 46,891.3 488.4 450.1 360.5 55.7 0.0 0.02046/2047 47,234.4 492.7 456.0 363.3 56.0 0.0 0.02047/2048 47,578.5 496.8 461.3 366.1 56.3 0.0 0.02048/2049 47,923.7 500.4 466.2 368.9 56.6 0.0 0.02049/2050 48,270.2 503.8 470.5 371.8 56.9 0.0 0.02050/2051 48,618.3 506.8 474.4 374.6 57.2 0.0 0.02051/2052 48,968.2 509.6 477.7 377.5 57.5 0.0 0.02052/2053 49,320.0 512.1 480.5 380.4 57.8 0.0 0.02053/2054 49,674.2 514.4 482.7 383.3 58.1 0.0 0.02054/2055 50,031.0 516.6 484.4 386.2 58.4 0.0 0.02055/2056 50,390.9 518.7 485.6 389.1 58.7 0.0 0.02056/2057 50,754.4 520.7 486.4 392.1 59.0 0.0 0.02057/2058 51,121.8 522.8 486.8 395.1 59.3 0.0 0.02058/2059 51,493.5 524.9 486.8 398.1 59.6 0.0 0.02059/2060 51,870.1 527.1 486.7 401.2 59.9 0.0 0.02060/2061 52,251.7 529.5 486.6 404.3 60.2 0.0 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 508.9 4.5 4.6 0.5 0.4 -1.8 0.22010/2011 507.5 4.5 4.6 0.5 0.4 -1.6 0.22011/2012 506.1 4.4 4.7 0.5 0.4 -1.4 0.22012/2013 504.8 4.4 4.7 0.5 0.4 -1.2 0.22013/2014 503.6 4.3 4.8 0.5 0.4 -1.0 0.12014/2015 502.5 4.3 4.8 0.5 0.4 -0.7 0.12015/2016 501.5 4.2 4.9 0.5 0.4 -0.5 0.12016/2017 500.6 4.2 4.9 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.12017/2018 499.7 4.2 5.0 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.02018/2019 498.9 4.1 5.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.02019/2020 498.2 4.1 5.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.02020/2021 497.5 4.0 5.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.02021/2022 496.9 4.0 5.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.02022/2023 496.2 3.9 5.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.02023/2024 495.6 3.9 5.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.02024/2025 495.0 3.8 5.6 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.02025/2026 494.3 3.7 5.7 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.02026/2027 493.6 3.7 5.8 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.02027/2028 492.9 3.6 5.9 0.5 0.3 1.3 0.02028/2029 492.2 3.6 6.0 0.5 0.3 1.4 0.02029/2030 491.4 3.6 6.1 0.5 0.3 1.6 0.02030/2031 490.6 3.5 6.2 0.5 0.3 1.7 0.02031/2032 489.7 3.5 6.3 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.02032/2033 488.8 3.5 6.4 0.5 0.3 1.9 0.02033/2034 487.9 3.5 6.5 0.5 0.3 2.0 0.02034/2035 487.0 3.5 6.7 0.5 0.3 2.1 0.02035/2036 486.0 3.5 6.8 0.5 0.3 2.2 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 141.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.12010/2011 142.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.12011/2012 143.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.12012/2013 143.9 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.12013/2014 144.9 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.02014/2015 145.9 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.02015/2016 146.9 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.02016/2017 147.9 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.02017/2018 148.9 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.02018/2019 149.8 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.02019/2020 150.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02020/2021 151.8 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02021/2022 152.8 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02022/2023 153.8 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02023/2024 154.7 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02024/2025 155.6 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02025/2026 156.5 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02026/2027 157.4 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02027/2028 158.3 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02028/2029 159.1 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02029/2030 159.9 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02030/2031 160.7 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02031/2032 161.4 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02032/2033 162.1 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02033/2034 162.8 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02034/2035 163.4 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.02035/2036 164.1 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 938.2 9.0 8.6 2.6 0.9 -0.8 0.82010/2011 940.2 9.0 8.6 2.6 0.9 -0.7 0.72011/2012 942.2 9.0 8.7 2.6 0.9 -0.6 0.62012/2013 944.3 9.0 8.7 2.5 0.9 -0.4 0.52013/2014 946.2 9.0 8.8 2.5 0.9 -0.3 0.42014/2015 948.2 8.9 8.8 2.5 0.9 -0.1 0.32015/2016 950.1 8.9 8.9 2.5 0.9 0.0 0.32016/2017 952.1 8.9 9.0 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.22017/2018 954.0 8.9 9.0 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.12018/2019 955.9 8.8 9.1 2.5 0.9 0.5 0.02019/2020 957.8 8.8 9.2 2.6 0.9 0.7 0.02020/2021 959.7 8.7 9.3 2.6 0.9 0.8 0.02021/2022 961.6 8.7 9.4 2.6 0.9 1.0 0.02022/2023 963.5 8.6 9.5 2.6 0.9 1.1 0.02023/2024 965.4 8.5 9.7 2.6 0.9 1.3 0.02024/2025 967.2 8.4 9.8 2.6 0.9 1.5 0.02025/2026 969.0 8.3 9.9 2.6 0.9 1.6 0.02026/2027 970.6 8.2 10.1 2.6 0.9 1.7 0.02027/2028 972.2 8.1 10.3 2.6 0.9 1.9 0.02028/2029 973.6 8.0 10.4 2.6 0.9 2.0 0.02029/2030 974.9 8.0 10.6 2.6 0.9 2.1 0.02030/2031 976.1 7.9 10.8 2.6 0.9 2.3 0.02031/2032 977.2 7.8 11.0 2.6 0.9 2.4 0.02032/2033 978.1 7.8 11.2 2.6 0.9 2.5 0.02033/2034 979.0 7.8 11.4 2.6 0.9 2.6 0.02034/2035 979.7 7.7 11.6 2.6 0.9 2.7 0.02035/2036 980.3 7.7 11.8 2.6 0.9 2.9 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 749.5 7.1 6.4 1.6 0.7 -1.0 0.52010/2011 750.6 7.1 6.5 1.6 0.7 -0.8 0.42011/2012 751.8 7.0 6.5 1.6 0.6 -0.7 0.42012/2013 752.9 7.0 6.6 1.6 0.6 -0.6 0.32013/2014 754.0 7.0 6.6 1.6 0.6 -0.5 0.32014/2015 755.0 6.9 6.7 1.6 0.6 -0.4 0.22015/2016 756.1 6.9 6.8 1.6 0.6 -0.2 0.22016/2017 757.1 6.9 6.9 1.6 0.6 -0.1 0.12017/2018 758.0 6.8 6.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.12018/2019 759.0 6.8 7.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.02019/2020 759.9 6.7 7.1 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.02020/2021 760.7 6.7 7.2 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.02021/2022 761.6 6.6 7.3 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.02022/2023 762.4 6.5 7.4 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.02023/2024 763.2 6.5 7.5 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.02024/2025 763.9 6.4 7.6 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.02025/2026 764.5 6.3 7.7 1.6 0.6 0.9 0.02026/2027 765.0 6.2 7.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.02027/2028 765.4 6.2 8.0 1.6 0.6 1.1 0.02028/2029 765.8 6.1 8.1 1.6 0.6 1.2 0.02029/2030 766.0 6.0 8.3 1.6 0.6 1.4 0.02030/2031 766.2 6.0 8.4 1.6 0.6 1.5 0.02031/2032 766.2 6.0 8.6 1.6 0.6 1.6 0.02032/2033 766.2 5.9 8.7 1.6 0.6 1.7 0.02033/2034 766.0 5.9 8.9 1.6 0.6 1.8 0.02034/2035 765.8 5.9 9.1 1.6 0.6 1.9 0.02035/2036 765.6 5.9 9.2 1.6 0.6 2.0 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 7,828.9 88.5 59.2 45.3 6.9 -5.5 7.42010/2011 7,898.5 89.4 60.1 45.3 6.9 -5.4 6.62011/2012 7,967.3 90.1 61.0 45.3 7.0 -5.4 5.82012/2013 8,035.1 90.8 62.1 46.1 7.0 -5.3 4.92013/2014 8,102.6 91.4 63.1 46.5 7.0 -5.3 4.12014/2015 8,169.1 91.8 64.1 46.8 7.0 -5.2 3.32015/2016 8,234.7 92.2 65.0 47.2 7.0 -5.2 2.52016/2017 8,299.4 92.5 65.9 47.6 7.0 -5.2 1.62017/2018 8,363.0 92.7 66.9 48.0 7.1 -5.1 0.82018/2019 8,425.4 92.9 67.9 48.3 7.1 -5.1 0.02019/2020 8,486.6 93.0 68.9 48.7 7.1 -5.1 0.02020/2021 8,547.2 92.9 69.9 49.0 7.1 -5.0 0.02021/2022 8,607.1 92.8 70.9 49.4 7.2 -5.0 0.02022/2023 8,666.2 92.5 71.9 49.7 7.2 -4.9 0.02023/2024 8,724.4 92.1 72.9 50.0 7.2 -4.9 0.02024/2025 8,781.5 91.6 74.0 50.4 7.2 -4.8 0.02025/2026 8,837.5 91.0 75.1 50.7 7.2 -4.8 0.02026/2027 8,892.0 90.4 76.3 51.0 7.3 -4.7 0.02027/2028 8,945.2 89.9 77.6 51.3 7.3 -4.6 0.02028/2029 8,996.9 89.4 78.8 51.6 7.3 -4.6 0.02029/2030 9,047.1 89.0 80.2 51.9 7.3 -4.5 0.02030/2031 9,096.0 88.7 81.6 52.2 7.3 -4.4 0.02031/2032 9,143.5 88.7 83.0 52.4 7.3 -4.4 0.02032/2033 9,189.9 88.8 84.6 52.7 7.3 -4.3 0.02033/2034 9,235.2 89.2 86.1 53.0 7.3 -4.3 0.02034/2035 9,279.7 89.8 87.7 53.2 7.3 -4.2 0.02035/2036 9,323.4 90.6 89.3 53.5 7.4 -4.1 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 13,069.2 147.2 91.0 123.6 21.8 -8.9 20.22010/2011 13,238.5 149.1 92.6 123.6 21.9 -9.3 18.02011/2012 13,405.4 151.0 94.1 123.6 22.0 -9.7 15.72012/2013 13,570.0 153.1 95.7 128.4 22.1 -10.0 13.52013/2014 13,737.2 155.2 97.2 129.9 22.2 -10.4 11.22014/2015 13,903.6 157.2 98.8 131.5 22.3 -10.8 9.02015/2016 14,069.4 159.1 100.3 133.1 22.4 -11.2 6.72016/2017 14,234.4 161.0 101.9 134.6 22.6 -11.6 4.52017/2018 14,398.5 162.7 103.5 136.2 22.7 -11.9 2.22018/2019 14,561.6 164.2 105.0 137.7 22.8 -12.2 0.02019/2020 14,723.5 165.5 106.6 139.3 22.9 -12.5 0.02020/2021 14,886.2 166.6 108.1 140.8 23.0 -12.8 0.02021/2022 15,049.7 167.6 109.7 142.4 23.2 -13.1 0.02022/2023 15,213.7 168.3 111.3 143.9 23.3 -13.3 0.02023/2024 15,377.9 168.7 113.1 145.5 23.4 -13.5 0.02024/2025 15,542.2 169.0 114.9 147.0 23.5 -13.7 0.02025/2026 15,706.1 169.1 116.7 148.6 23.6 -13.9 0.02026/2027 15,869.6 169.1 118.7 150.1 23.7 -14.1 0.02027/2028 16,032.2 168.9 120.8 151.6 23.8 -14.3 0.02028/2029 16,194.0 168.8 123.0 153.2 23.9 -14.4 0.02029/2030 16,354.6 168.7 125.4 154.7 24.0 -14.6 0.02030/2031 16,513.9 168.7 127.9 156.2 24.1 -14.8 0.02031/2032 16,672.0 168.8 130.5 157.7 24.2 -14.9 0.02032/2033 16,828.9 169.2 133.3 159.2 24.3 -15.1 0.02033/2034 16,984.5 169.8 136.1 160.7 24.4 -15.3 0.02034/2035 17,139.0 170.6 139.1 162.1 24.5 -15.6 0.02035/2036 17,292.6 171.6 142.1 163.6 24.6 -15.8 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 1,222.0 16.0 9.8 10.4 1.5 -5.2 1.02010/2011 1,232.8 16.2 9.9 10.4 1.5 -5.3 0.92011/2012 1,243.6 16.3 9.9 10.4 1.5 -5.3 0.82012/2013 1,254.4 16.5 10.0 10.6 1.5 -5.3 0.72013/2014 1,265.3 16.7 10.0 10.7 1.5 -5.4 0.62014/2015 1,276.4 16.8 10.1 10.8 1.5 -5.4 0.52015/2016 1,287.5 17.0 10.1 10.9 1.5 -5.4 0.32016/2017 1,298.6 17.1 10.2 11.0 1.6 -5.4 0.22017/2018 1,309.7 17.2 10.2 11.1 1.6 -5.5 0.12018/2019 1,320.8 17.2 10.3 11.2 1.6 -5.5 0.02019/2020 1,331.8 17.3 10.3 11.2 1.6 -5.5 0.02020/2021 1,343.0 17.3 10.4 11.3 1.6 -5.5 0.02021/2022 1,354.1 17.3 10.5 11.4 1.6 -5.5 0.02022/2023 1,365.3 17.3 10.5 11.5 1.6 -5.5 0.02023/2024 1,376.5 17.3 10.6 11.6 1.6 -5.5 0.02024/2025 1,387.6 17.3 10.7 11.7 1.6 -5.5 0.02025/2026 1,398.8 17.2 10.8 11.8 1.6 -5.5 0.02026/2027 1,409.9 17.2 10.9 11.9 1.6 -5.5 0.02027/2028 1,420.9 17.2 11.0 12.0 1.6 -5.5 0.02028/2029 1,432.0 17.2 11.2 12.1 1.6 -5.5 0.02029/2030 1,443.0 17.2 11.3 12.2 1.6 -5.5 0.02030/2031 1,453.9 17.3 11.5 12.3 1.6 -5.5 0.02031/2032 1,464.8 17.3 11.7 12.4 1.6 -5.5 0.02032/2033 1,475.7 17.4 11.8 12.5 1.6 -5.5 0.02033/2034 1,486.6 17.5 12.0 12.6 1.7 -5.5 0.02034/2035 1,497.5 17.6 12.2 12.6 1.7 -5.5 0.02035/2036 1,508.3 17.8 12.4 12.7 1.7 -5.5 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 1,030.1 13.9 9.0 3.2 0.7 -5.5 0.72010/2011 1,032.7 13.9 9.0 3.2 0.7 -5.3 0.62011/2012 1,035.5 14.0 9.0 3.2 0.7 -5.1 0.52012/2013 1,038.5 14.0 9.0 3.3 0.7 -4.8 0.42013/2014 1,041.6 14.0 9.0 3.3 0.7 -4.6 0.42014/2015 1,045.0 13.9 9.0 3.3 0.7 -4.4 0.32015/2016 1,048.5 13.9 9.0 3.3 0.7 -4.1 0.22016/2017 1,052.1 13.8 9.0 3.3 0.7 -3.9 0.12017/2018 1,055.8 13.7 9.0 3.3 0.7 -3.6 0.12018/2019 1,059.6 13.6 9.0 3.3 0.7 -3.4 0.02019/2020 1,063.5 13.5 9.0 3.3 0.7 -3.2 0.02020/2021 1,067.5 13.4 9.0 3.4 0.7 -3.0 0.02021/2022 1,071.5 13.2 9.0 3.4 0.7 -2.8 0.02022/2023 1,075.7 13.1 9.0 3.4 0.7 -2.6 0.02023/2024 1,079.8 13.0 9.1 3.4 0.7 -2.4 0.02024/2025 1,084.0 12.9 9.1 3.4 0.7 -2.2 0.02025/2026 1,088.3 12.8 9.2 3.4 0.7 -2.1 0.02026/2027 1,092.5 12.7 9.3 3.4 0.7 -1.9 0.02027/2028 1,096.8 12.6 9.3 3.4 0.7 -1.8 0.02028/2029 1,101.1 12.6 9.4 3.5 0.7 -1.6 0.02029/2030 1,105.4 12.6 9.5 3.5 0.7 -1.5 0.02030/2031 1,109.8 12.6 9.6 3.5 0.7 -1.4 0.02031/2032 1,114.1 12.6 9.8 3.5 0.7 -1.2 0.02032/2033 1,118.5 12.6 9.9 3.5 0.7 -1.1 0.02033/2034 1,123.0 12.7 10.1 3.5 0.7 -1.0 0.02034/2035 1,127.5 12.8 10.2 3.5 0.7 -0.8 0.02035/2036 1,132.0 12.9 10.4 3.6 0.7 -0.7 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 3,687.7 53.8 20.8 21.7 6.4 25.2 5.32010/2011 3,766.5 55.0 21.3 21.7 6.4 24.7 4.72011/2012 3,845.0 56.2 21.8 21.7 6.5 24.3 4.12012/2013 3,923.0 57.4 22.3 24.1 6.6 23.8 3.52013/2014 4,002.9 58.4 22.8 24.6 6.7 23.3 2.92014/2015 4,082.7 59.3 23.3 25.1 6.7 22.9 2.42015/2016 4,162.2 60.1 23.9 25.6 6.8 22.4 1.82016/2017 4,241.5 60.8 24.4 26.1 6.9 22.0 1.22017/2018 4,320.2 61.3 24.9 26.6 7.0 21.5 0.62018/2019 4,398.3 61.8 25.5 27.0 7.0 21.0 0.02019/2020 4,475.6 62.1 26.1 27.5 7.1 20.6 0.02020/2021 4,552.6 62.3 26.6 28.0 7.2 20.1 0.02021/2022 4,629.1 62.4 27.2 28.5 7.2 19.6 0.02022/2023 4,705.1 62.5 27.8 28.9 7.3 19.2 0.02023/2024 4,780.6 62.6 28.4 29.4 7.4 18.7 0.02024/2025 4,855.5 62.6 29.1 29.8 7.4 18.3 0.02025/2026 4,929.7 62.7 29.8 30.3 7.5 17.9 0.02026/2027 5,003.3 62.8 30.5 30.8 7.6 17.5 0.02027/2028 5,076.3 63.0 31.3 31.2 7.6 17.1 0.02028/2029 5,148.6 63.2 32.1 31.6 7.7 16.7 0.02029/2030 5,220.4 63.6 32.9 32.1 7.7 16.3 0.02030/2031 5,291.7 64.0 33.8 32.5 7.8 15.9 0.02031/2032 5,362.6 64.6 34.7 33.0 7.8 15.5 0.02032/2033 5,433.2 65.3 35.7 33.4 7.9 15.2 0.02033/2034 5,503.5 66.1 36.7 33.8 7.9 14.8 0.02034/2035 5,573.6 67.0 37.7 34.3 8.0 14.5 0.02035/2036 5,643.7 68.0 38.8 34.7 8.0 14.2 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 4,455.2 47.4 32.5 42.4 7.8 4.1 9.72010/2011 4,518.7 48.1 33.0 42.4 7.8 4.3 8.72011/2012 4,581.3 48.8 33.6 42.4 7.8 4.4 7.62012/2013 4,643.1 49.5 34.1 44.9 7.9 4.5 6.52013/2014 4,706.6 50.2 34.6 45.5 7.9 4.6 5.42014/2015 4,769.9 50.9 35.2 46.2 8.0 4.7 4.32015/2016 4,832.9 51.6 35.7 46.8 8.0 4.8 3.22016/2017 4,895.5 52.1 36.2 47.4 8.1 4.8 2.22017/2018 4,957.7 52.6 36.8 48.0 8.1 4.9 1.12018/2019 5,019.3 53.0 37.4 48.6 8.1 5.0 0.02019/2020 5,080.3 53.3 37.9 49.2 8.2 5.0 0.02020/2021 5,141.7 53.6 38.5 49.8 8.2 5.0 0.02021/2022 5,203.4 53.8 39.1 50.3 8.3 5.1 0.02022/2023 5,265.3 54.0 39.7 50.9 8.3 5.1 0.02023/2024 5,327.2 54.1 40.3 51.5 8.4 5.1 0.02024/2025 5,389.2 54.1 41.0 52.1 8.4 5.1 0.02025/2026 5,451.1 54.2 41.7 52.7 8.4 5.1 0.02026/2027 5,513.0 54.2 42.5 53.3 8.5 5.0 0.02027/2028 5,574.6 54.2 43.3 53.9 8.5 5.0 0.02028/2029 5,635.9 54.3 44.2 54.5 8.6 5.0 0.02029/2030 5,697.1 54.4 45.1 55.1 8.6 5.0 0.02030/2031 5,757.9 54.5 46.1 55.7 8.6 5.0 0.02031/2032 5,818.4 54.7 47.1 56.3 8.7 5.0 0.02032/2033 5,878.6 54.9 48.1 56.9 8.7 5.0 0.02033/2034 5,938.5 55.3 49.2 57.5 8.7 4.9 0.02034/2035 5,998.2 55.7 50.4 58.0 8.8 4.9 0.02035/2036 6,057.7 56.2 51.5 58.6 8.8 4.9 0.0






of period



migration

Netnon-permanent

residents

thousands

2009/2010 33.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02010/2011 33.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02011/2012 34.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02012/2013 34.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02013/2014 34.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02014/2015 34.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02015/2016 35.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02016/2017 35.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02017/2018 35.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02018/2019 35.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02019/2020 36.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02020/2021 36.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02021/2022 36.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02022/2023 36.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02023/2024 37.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02024/2025 37.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02025/2026 37.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02026/2027 37.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02027/2028 38.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02028/2029 38.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02029/2030 38.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02030/2031 38.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02031/2032 39.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02032/2033 39.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02033/2034 39.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02034/2035 39.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.02035/2036 39.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0







thousands

2009/2010 43.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 43.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 44.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 44.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 44.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 45.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 45.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02016/2017 45.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02017/2018 46.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02018/2019 46.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02019/2020 46.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02020/2021 47.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02021/2022 47.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02022/2023 47.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02023/2024 48.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02024/2025 48.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02025/2026 49.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02026/2027 49.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02027/2028 49.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02028/2029 49.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02029/2030 50.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02030/2031 50.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02031/2032 50.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02032/2033 51.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02033/2034 51.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02034/2035 51.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 52.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0









thousands

2009/2010 32.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 32.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 33.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 33.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 33.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 34.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 34.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02016/2017 35.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02017/2018 35.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02018/2019 35.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02019/2020 36.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02020/2021 36.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02021/2022 36.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02022/2023 37.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02023/2024 37.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02024/2025 38.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02025/2026 38.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02026/2027 38.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02027/2028 38.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02028/2029 39.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02029/2030 39.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02030/2031 39.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02031/2032 40.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02032/2033 40.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02033/2034 40.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02034/2035 40.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02035/2036 41.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0




Table 7-1Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Canada, 2009/2010 to 2060/2061





thousands

2009/2010 33,739.9 400.2 239.9 265.0 47.3 0.0 46.02010/2011 34,163.9 414.7 242.4 265.0 47.5 0.0 40.92011/2012 34,594.6 429.2 245.1 265.0 47.7 0.0 35.82012/2013 35,031.8 444.4 248.1 316.7 47.9 0.0 30.72013/2014 35,527.5 460.1 251.2 321.5 48.3 0.0 25.52014/2015 36,035.2 466.0 254.3 326.4 48.6 0.0 20.42015/2016 36,545.2 471.5 257.3 331.4 49.0 0.0 15.32016/2017 37,057.1 476.5 260.3 336.3 49.3 0.0 10.22017/2018 37,570.6 480.9 263.4 341.3 49.7 0.0 5.12018/2019 38,084.8 484.8 266.6 346.3 50.1 0.0 0.02019/2020 38,599.2 488.1 269.9 351.3 50.5 0.0 0.02020/2021 39,118.2 490.8 273.3 356.4 50.8 0.0 0.02021/2022 39,641.2 492.9 276.9 361.5 51.2 0.0 0.02022/2023 40,167.4 494.4 280.5 366.6 51.6 0.0 0.02023/2024 40,696.3 495.4 284.4 371.8 52.0 0.0 0.02024/2025 41,227.1 496.2 288.5 377.0 52.3 0.0 0.02025/2026 41,759.4 496.7 292.9 382.2 52.7 0.0 0.02026/2027 42,292.6 497.1 297.6 387.4 53.0 0.0 0.02027/2028 42,826.5 497.7 302.6 392.6 53.4 0.0 0.02028/2029 43,360.9 498.7 308.0 397.9 53.7 0.0 0.02029/2030 43,895.8 500.3 313.8 403.1 54.1 0.0 0.02030/2031 44,431.3 502.6 319.9 408.4 54.4 0.0 0.02031/2032 44,968.0 505.8 326.4 413.7 54.7 0.0 0.02032/2033 45,506.4 510.0 333.7 419.0 55.1 0.0 0.02033/2034 46,046.6 515.2 341.3 424.3 55.4 0.0 0.02034/2035 46,589.4 521.5 349.2 429.7 55.7 0.0 0.02035/2036 47,135.7 528.7 357.4 435.1 56.1 0.0 0.02036/2037 47,686.0 536.9 365.7 440.5 56.5 0.0 0.02037/2038 48,241.2 546.0 374.7 445.9 56.9 0.0 0.02038/2039 48,801.5 555.8 383.8 451.5 57.3 0.0 0.02039/2040 49,367.6 566.1 392.9 457.0 57.7 0.0 0.02040/2041 49,940.2 576.9 401.9 462.7 58.2 0.0 0.02041/2042 50,519.6 587.8 410.8 468.4 58.6 0.0 0.02042/2043 51,106.4 598.8 419.4 474.1 59.1 0.0 0.02043/2044 51,700.8 609.5 427.8 480.0 59.6 0.0 0.02044/2045 52,302.8 619.9 435.9 485.9 60.2 0.0 0.02045/2046 52,912.5 629.9 443.7 491.9 60.7 0.0 0.02046/2047 53,529.9 639.2 451.0 498.0 61.2 0.0 0.02047/2048 54,154.9 648.0 457.9 504.1 61.8 0.0 0.02048/2049 54,787.3 656.2 464.3 510.3 62.4 0.0 0.02049/2050 55,427.2 663.8 470.2 516.6 62.9 0.0 0.02050/2051 56,074.4 670.8 475.5 523.0 63.5 0.0 0.02051/2052 56,729.1 677.3 480.4 529.4 64.1 0.0 0.02052/2053 57,391.3 683.3 484.7 535.9 64.7 0.0 0.02053/2054 58,061.2 689.1 488.4 542.5 65.2 0.0 0.02054/2055 58,739.1 694.7 491.6 549.1 65.8 0.0 0.02055/2056 59,425.5 700.2 494.2 555.9 66.4 0.0 0.02056/2057 60,121.0 705.7 496.3 562.7 67.0 0.0 0.02057/2058 60,826.1 711.3 497.9 569.6 67.6 0.0 0.02058/2059 61,541.5 717.1 499.2 576.6 68.1 0.0 0.02059/2060 62,267.8 723.2 500.3 583.7 68.7 0.0 0.02060/2061 63,005.7 729.7 501.2 590.9 69.3 0.0 0.0




Table 7-2Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 508.9 4.7 4.5 0.6 0.4 -0.3 0.22010/2011 509.3 4.8 4.5 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.22011/2012 509.8 4.8 4.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.22012/2013 510.4 4.9 4.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.22013/2014 511.3 5.0 4.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.12014/2015 512.4 5.0 4.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.12015/2016 513.6 4.9 4.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.12016/2017 514.9 4.9 4.8 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.12017/2018 516.3 4.9 4.8 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.02018/2019 517.7 4.9 4.9 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.02019/2020 519.1 4.8 4.9 0.6 0.4 1.4 0.02020/2021 520.7 4.8 5.0 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.02021/2022 522.2 4.7 5.1 0.6 0.4 1.6 0.02022/2023 523.8 4.7 5.2 0.7 0.4 1.8 0.02023/2024 525.4 4.6 5.2 0.7 0.4 1.9 0.02024/2025 527.0 4.6 5.3 0.7 0.4 2.0 0.02025/2026 528.6 4.5 5.4 0.7 0.4 2.2 0.02026/2027 530.2 4.5 5.5 0.7 0.4 2.3 0.02027/2028 531.7 4.4 5.6 0.7 0.4 2.4 0.02028/2029 533.3 4.4 5.7 0.7 0.4 2.5 0.02029/2030 534.7 4.4 5.8 0.7 0.4 2.6 0.02030/2031 536.2 4.4 5.9 0.7 0.4 2.7 0.02031/2032 537.6 4.4 6.1 0.7 0.4 2.8 0.02032/2033 539.0 4.4 6.2 0.7 0.4 2.9 0.02033/2034 540.4 4.4 6.3 0.7 0.4 3.0 0.02034/2035 541.7 4.4 6.4 0.7 0.4 3.1 0.02035/2036 543.1 4.4 6.6 0.7 0.4 3.2 0.0


Table 7-3Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Prince Edward Island, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 141.0 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.12010/2011 142.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.12011/2012 143.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.12012/2013 145.3 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.12013/2014 147.0 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.02014/2015 148.7 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.02015/2016 150.4 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.02016/2017 152.2 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.02017/2018 154.0 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.02018/2019 155.8 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.02019/2020 157.6 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.02020/2021 159.4 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.02021/2022 161.3 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.02022/2023 163.1 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.02023/2024 165.0 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.02024/2025 166.8 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.02025/2026 168.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.02026/2027 170.5 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.02027/2028 172.4 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.02028/2029 174.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.02029/2030 176.0 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.02030/2031 177.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.02031/2032 179.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.02032/2033 181.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.02033/2034 183.0 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.02034/2035 184.7 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.02035/2036 186.4 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.0




Table 7-4Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Nova Scotia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 938.2 9.3 8.4 2.7 0.9 2.0 0.82010/2011 943.6 9.5 8.4 2.7 0.9 2.1 0.72011/2012 949.2 9.8 8.5 2.7 0.9 2.2 0.62012/2013 955.1 10.1 8.5 3.1 0.9 2.3 0.52013/2014 961.6 10.3 8.5 3.1 0.9 2.4 0.42014/2015 968.4 10.4 8.6 3.1 0.9 2.5 0.32015/2016 975.3 10.5 8.6 3.1 0.9 2.7 0.32016/2017 982.3 10.5 8.7 3.1 0.9 2.8 0.22017/2018 989.3 10.5 8.7 3.2 0.9 3.0 0.12018/2019 996.4 10.5 8.8 3.2 0.9 3.1 0.02019/2020 1,003.5 10.5 8.9 3.2 0.9 3.3 0.02020/2021 1,010.7 10.5 9.0 3.2 0.9 3.4 0.02021/2022 1,018.0 10.5 9.1 3.3 0.9 3.6 0.02022/2023 1,025.3 10.4 9.2 3.3 0.9 3.7 0.02023/2024 1,032.7 10.4 9.3 3.3 0.9 3.9 0.02024/2025 1,040.0 10.3 9.4 3.3 0.9 4.0 0.02025/2026 1,047.3 10.2 9.6 3.3 0.9 4.2 0.02026/2027 1,054.5 10.1 9.7 3.4 0.9 4.3 0.02027/2028 1,061.7 10.1 9.9 3.4 0.9 4.4 0.02028/2029 1,068.8 10.0 10.0 3.4 0.9 4.6 0.02029/2030 1,075.8 10.0 10.2 3.4 0.9 4.7 0.02030/2031 1,082.8 9.9 10.4 3.5 0.9 4.8 0.02031/2032 1,089.6 9.9 10.6 3.5 0.9 5.0 0.02032/2033 1,096.5 9.9 10.8 3.5 0.9 5.1 0.02033/2034 1,103.2 10.0 11.1 3.5 0.9 5.3 0.02034/2035 1,110.0 10.1 11.3 3.5 0.9 5.4 0.02035/2036 1,116.7 10.1 11.5 3.6 1.0 5.5 0.0


Table 7-5Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — New Brunswick, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 749.5 7.4 6.3 1.7 0.7 1.1 0.52010/2011 753.2 7.6 6.3 1.7 0.7 1.2 0.42011/2012 757.2 7.7 6.4 1.7 0.7 1.3 0.42012/2013 761.3 7.9 6.4 1.9 0.7 1.4 0.32013/2014 765.8 8.1 6.5 1.9 0.7 1.5 0.32014/2015 770.6 8.1 6.5 2.0 0.7 1.7 0.22015/2016 775.3 8.1 6.6 2.0 0.7 1.8 0.22016/2017 780.1 8.1 6.6 2.0 0.7 1.9 0.12017/2018 785.0 8.1 6.7 2.0 0.7 2.0 0.12018/2019 789.8 8.1 6.7 2.0 0.7 2.2 0.02019/2020 794.7 8.1 6.8 2.0 0.7 2.3 0.02020/2021 799.6 8.1 6.9 2.0 0.7 2.4 0.02021/2022 804.5 8.0 7.0 2.0 0.7 2.5 0.02022/2023 809.5 8.0 7.1 2.1 0.7 2.6 0.02023/2024 814.4 7.9 7.2 2.1 0.7 2.7 0.02024/2025 819.2 7.8 7.3 2.1 0.7 2.8 0.02025/2026 824.1 7.8 7.4 2.1 0.7 2.9 0.02026/2027 828.8 7.7 7.5 2.1 0.7 3.0 0.02027/2028 833.5 7.7 7.6 2.1 0.7 3.1 0.02028/2029 838.2 7.6 7.8 2.1 0.7 3.2 0.02029/2030 842.7 7.6 7.9 2.1 0.7 3.3 0.02030/2031 847.2 7.6 8.1 2.2 0.7 3.5 0.02031/2032 851.7 7.6 8.2 2.2 0.7 3.6 0.02032/2033 856.1 7.6 8.4 2.2 0.7 3.7 0.02033/2034 860.5 7.7 8.6 2.2 0.7 3.8 0.02034/2035 864.8 7.7 8.8 2.2 0.7 3.9 0.02035/2036 869.1 7.8 9.0 2.2 0.7 4.0 0.0




Table 7-6Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Quebec, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 7,828.9 91.2 58.3 47.5 6.9 -8.8 7.42010/2011 7,901.0 94.1 58.8 47.5 6.9 -8.8 6.62011/2012 7,974.6 96.9 59.5 47.5 7.0 -8.8 5.82012/2013 8,049.6 99.7 60.2 55.4 7.0 -8.7 4.92013/2014 8,133.6 102.5 61.0 56.0 7.0 -8.7 4.12014/2015 8,219.5 103.2 61.8 56.6 7.0 -8.7 3.32015/2016 8,305.0 103.9 62.5 57.1 7.1 -8.7 2.52016/2017 8,390.3 104.4 63.1 57.7 7.1 -8.6 1.62017/2018 8,475.2 104.9 63.8 58.3 7.1 -8.6 0.82018/2019 8,559.6 105.2 64.6 58.9 7.2 -8.6 0.02019/2020 8,643.4 105.5 65.4 59.5 7.2 -8.5 0.02020/2021 8,727.3 105.6 66.2 60.0 7.3 -8.4 0.02021/2022 8,811.0 105.5 67.0 60.6 7.3 -8.3 0.02022/2023 8,894.6 105.3 67.8 61.2 7.3 -8.3 0.02023/2024 8,977.8 105.0 68.6 61.8 7.4 -8.2 0.02024/2025 9,060.4 104.6 69.5 62.3 7.4 -8.1 0.02025/2026 9,142.4 104.2 70.4 62.9 7.4 -8.0 0.02026/2027 9,223.6 103.7 71.4 63.5 7.4 -8.0 0.02027/2028 9,303.9 103.3 72.5 64.0 7.5 -7.9 0.02028/2029 9,383.3 103.0 73.6 64.6 7.5 -7.8 0.02029/2030 9,461.9 102.9 74.8 65.1 7.5 -7.8 0.02030/2031 9,539.8 102.9 76.0 65.6 7.5 -7.7 0.02031/2032 9,617.1 103.3 77.4 66.2 7.6 -7.7 0.02032/2033 9,694.0 103.9 78.8 66.7 7.6 -7.6 0.02033/2034 9,770.6 104.9 80.4 67.2 7.6 -7.5 0.02034/2035 9,847.1 106.1 82.0 67.8 7.6 -7.4 0.02035/2036 9,923.9 107.5 83.6 68.3 7.7 -7.4 0.0


Table 7-7Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Ontario, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 13,069.2 149.5 89.6 129.7 21.9 0.3 20.22010/2011 13,257.5 155.5 90.8 129.7 22.0 -0.1 18.02011/2012 13,447.9 161.5 92.1 129.7 22.1 -0.4 15.72012/2013 13,640.4 168.0 93.4 154.8 22.2 -0.7 13.52013/2014 13,860.5 174.9 94.7 157.3 22.4 -1.2 11.22014/2015 14,085.8 178.1 96.0 159.9 22.5 -1.6 9.02015/2016 14,312.6 181.1 97.3 162.5 22.7 -2.0 6.72016/2017 14,540.9 184.0 98.7 165.0 22.9 -2.5 4.52017/2018 14,770.4 186.7 100.0 167.7 23.1 -2.9 2.22018/2019 15,001.1 189.2 101.3 170.3 23.3 -3.3 0.02019/2020 15,232.7 191.5 102.7 172.9 23.4 -3.7 0.02020/2021 15,467.2 193.6 104.1 175.6 23.6 -4.2 0.02021/2022 15,704.5 195.3 105.5 178.3 23.8 -4.6 0.02022/2023 15,944.1 196.8 107.0 181.0 24.0 -5.0 0.02023/2024 16,185.9 198.1 108.5 183.7 24.2 -5.4 0.02024/2025 16,429.5 199.1 110.2 186.5 24.4 -5.8 0.02025/2026 16,674.7 199.9 111.9 189.3 24.6 -6.1 0.02026/2027 16,921.2 200.6 113.8 192.1 24.8 -6.5 0.02027/2028 17,168.8 201.2 115.8 194.9 25.0 -6.8 0.02028/2029 17,417.3 201.8 117.9 197.7 25.2 -7.1 0.02029/2030 17,666.7 202.6 120.2 200.5 25.4 -7.4 0.02030/2031 17,916.9 203.5 122.7 203.4 25.5 -7.6 0.02031/2032 18,167.9 204.7 125.3 206.2 25.7 -7.9 0.02032/2033 18,419.9 206.2 128.2 209.1 25.9 -8.2 0.02033/2034 18,672.9 208.0 131.2 211.9 26.1 -8.5 0.02034/2035 18,927.1 210.2 134.4 214.8 26.3 -8.8 0.02035/2036 19,182.7 212.8 137.7 217.7 26.4 -9.1 0.0




Table 7-8Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Manitoba, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 1,222.0 16.6 9.7 10.9 1.5 -3.2 1.02010/2011 1,236.2 17.3 9.7 10.9 1.5 -3.2 0.92011/2012 1,250.8 17.9 9.7 10.9 1.5 -3.3 0.82012/2013 1,265.9 18.5 9.8 12.8 1.5 -3.4 0.72013/2014 1,283.3 19.2 9.8 13.0 1.5 -3.4 0.62014/2015 1,301.3 19.5 9.8 13.2 1.6 -3.5 0.52015/2016 1,319.6 19.7 9.9 13.4 1.6 -3.6 0.32016/2017 1,338.0 19.9 9.9 13.6 1.6 -3.7 0.22017/2018 1,356.5 20.1 9.9 13.7 1.6 -3.7 0.12018/2019 1,375.2 20.3 10.0 13.9 1.6 -3.8 0.02019/2020 1,394.1 20.4 10.0 14.1 1.6 -3.9 0.02020/2021 1,413.1 20.5 10.1 14.3 1.6 -3.9 0.02021/2022 1,432.3 20.6 10.1 14.5 1.7 -4.0 0.02022/2023 1,451.6 20.7 10.2 14.7 1.7 -4.0 0.02023/2024 1,471.1 20.7 10.3 14.9 1.7 -4.1 0.02024/2025 1,490.7 20.8 10.4 15.1 1.7 -4.1 0.02025/2026 1,510.4 20.8 10.5 15.3 1.7 -4.2 0.02026/2027 1,530.2 20.9 10.6 15.5 1.7 -4.2 0.02027/2028 1,550.0 21.0 10.7 15.7 1.7 -4.3 0.02028/2029 1,570.0 21.1 10.8 15.9 1.7 -4.3 0.02029/2030 1,590.1 21.2 11.0 16.1 1.8 -4.4 0.02030/2031 1,610.4 21.4 11.1 16.3 1.8 -4.4 0.02031/2032 1,630.8 21.7 11.3 16.5 1.8 -4.5 0.02032/2033 1,651.3 21.9 11.5 16.7 1.8 -4.6 0.02033/2034 1,672.1 22.2 11.8 16.9 1.8 -4.6 0.02034/2035 1,693.0 22.5 12.0 17.2 1.8 -4.7 0.02035/2036 1,714.2 22.9 12.2 17.4 1.8 -4.7 0.0


Table 7-9Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Saskatchewan, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 1,030.1 14.6 8.9 3.4 0.7 -2.2 0.72010/2011 1,037.0 15.0 8.9 3.4 0.7 -2.1 0.62011/2012 1,044.3 15.4 8.8 3.4 0.7 -2.0 0.52012/2013 1,052.2 15.8 8.8 4.0 0.7 -1.9 0.42013/2014 1,061.1 16.2 8.8 4.0 0.7 -1.7 0.42014/2015 1,070.5 16.2 8.7 4.0 0.7 -1.6 0.32015/2016 1,080.0 16.3 8.7 4.1 0.7 -1.4 0.22016/2017 1,089.7 16.2 8.7 4.1 0.7 -1.2 0.12017/2018 1,099.6 16.2 8.7 4.1 0.7 -1.1 0.12018/2019 1,109.5 16.1 8.7 4.2 0.7 -0.9 0.02019/2020 1,119.4 16.1 8.7 4.2 0.7 -0.8 0.02020/2021 1,129.5 16.0 8.7 4.3 0.7 -0.7 0.02021/2022 1,139.6 15.9 8.7 4.3 0.7 -0.5 0.02022/2023 1,149.8 15.8 8.7 4.3 0.7 -0.4 0.02023/2024 1,160.0 15.7 8.8 4.4 0.7 -0.3 0.02024/2025 1,170.3 15.6 8.8 4.4 0.7 -0.2 0.02025/2026 1,180.5 15.5 8.9 4.4 0.7 -0.1 0.02026/2027 1,190.8 15.5 8.9 4.5 0.7 0.0 0.02027/2028 1,201.2 15.5 9.0 4.5 0.7 0.1 0.02028/2029 1,211.5 15.5 9.1 4.6 0.7 0.2 0.02029/2030 1,222.0 15.6 9.2 4.6 0.7 0.3 0.02030/2031 1,232.4 15.7 9.3 4.6 0.7 0.3 0.02031/2032 1,243.0 15.8 9.4 4.7 0.7 0.4 0.02032/2033 1,253.8 16.0 9.6 4.7 0.7 0.5 0.02033/2034 1,264.6 16.2 9.7 4.8 0.7 0.6 0.02034/2035 1,275.6 16.4 9.9 4.8 0.7 0.6 0.02035/2036 1,286.8 16.7 10.1 4.8 0.8 0.7 0.0




Table 7-10Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Alberta, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 3,687.7 55.2 20.5 22.8 6.3 -1.9 5.32010/2011 3,742.2 57.1 20.8 22.8 6.4 -1.9 4.72011/2012 3,797.7 58.9 21.1 22.8 6.4 -1.9 4.12012/2013 3,854.1 60.8 21.5 28.4 6.5 -1.9 3.52013/2014 3,917.1 62.7 21.8 28.9 6.5 -1.9 2.92014/2015 3,981.4 63.2 22.2 29.4 6.6 -1.9 2.42015/2016 4,045.6 63.6 22.5 29.8 6.6 -1.9 1.82016/2017 4,109.8 63.9 22.9 30.3 6.7 -1.9 1.22017/2018 4,173.7 64.1 23.3 30.8 6.7 -1.9 0.62018/2019 4,237.2 64.2 23.6 31.3 6.8 -1.9 0.02019/2020 4,300.3 64.2 24.0 31.7 6.8 -1.8 0.02020/2021 4,363.5 64.2 24.4 32.2 6.9 -1.8 0.02021/2022 4,426.7 64.1 24.9 32.6 7.0 -1.8 0.02022/2023 4,489.9 64.1 25.3 33.1 7.0 -1.8 0.02023/2024 4,553.0 64.0 25.8 33.6 7.1 -1.7 0.02024/2025 4,616.0 64.0 26.3 34.0 7.1 -1.7 0.02025/2026 4,679.0 64.0 26.8 34.5 7.2 -1.6 0.02026/2027 4,741.9 64.0 27.3 35.0 7.2 -1.6 0.02027/2028 4,804.8 64.2 27.9 35.4 7.2 -1.5 0.02028/2029 4,867.8 64.5 28.5 35.9 7.3 -1.5 0.02029/2030 4,930.9 64.9 29.2 36.4 7.3 -1.4 0.02030/2031 4,994.3 65.4 29.9 36.8 7.4 -1.4 0.02031/2032 5,057.9 66.1 30.6 37.3 7.4 -1.4 0.02032/2033 5,121.9 66.9 31.4 37.8 7.5 -1.3 0.02033/2034 5,186.3 67.8 32.3 38.2 7.5 -1.3 0.02034/2035 5,251.3 68.9 33.2 38.7 7.6 -1.3 0.02035/2036 5,316.9 70.1 34.1 39.2 7.6 -1.3 0.0


Table 7-11Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — British Columbia, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 4,455.2 48.2 32.0 44.5 7.8 13.4 9.72010/2011 4,531.4 50.4 32.4 44.5 7.8 13.3 8.72011/2012 4,608.0 52.5 32.8 44.5 7.9 13.2 7.62012/2013 4,685.2 54.8 33.3 54.4 7.9 13.1 6.52013/2014 4,772.8 57.3 33.7 55.4 8.0 13.0 5.42014/2015 4,862.1 58.4 34.2 56.5 8.1 12.8 4.32015/2016 4,951.9 59.5 34.7 57.5 8.1 12.7 3.22016/2017 5,042.0 60.5 35.1 58.5 8.2 12.6 2.22017/2018 5,132.4 61.4 35.6 59.6 8.3 12.4 1.12018/2019 5,223.0 62.2 36.1 60.6 8.4 12.2 0.02019/2020 5,313.6 62.9 36.5 61.7 8.5 12.1 0.02020/2021 5,405.3 63.5 37.0 62.8 8.5 11.9 0.02021/2022 5,497.9 64.1 37.6 63.8 8.6 11.7 0.02022/2023 5,591.3 64.6 38.1 64.9 8.7 11.5 0.02023/2024 5,685.5 65.0 38.7 66.0 8.8 11.3 0.02024/2025 5,780.3 65.4 39.3 67.1 8.8 11.1 0.02025/2026 5,875.7 65.7 40.0 68.2 8.9 10.8 0.02026/2027 5,971.6 66.0 40.7 69.3 9.0 10.6 0.02027/2028 6,067.9 66.4 41.5 70.5 9.0 10.4 0.02028/2029 6,164.6 66.7 42.3 71.6 9.1 10.2 0.02029/2030 6,261.8 67.2 43.2 72.7 9.2 10.0 0.02030/2031 6,359.3 67.7 44.1 73.8 9.3 9.8 0.02031/2032 6,457.3 68.3 45.1 75.0 9.3 9.6 0.02032/2033 6,555.7 69.0 46.2 76.1 9.4 9.5 0.02033/2034 6,654.7 69.8 47.4 77.3 9.5 9.3 0.02034/2035 6,754.3 70.8 48.6 78.4 9.5 9.1 0.02035/2036 6,854.5 71.9 49.8 79.6 9.6 9.0 0.0




Table 7-12Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Yukon, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 33.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02010/2011 33.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02011/2012 34.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02012/2013 34.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02013/2014 34.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02014/2015 34.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02015/2016 35.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02016/2017 35.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02017/2018 35.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02018/2019 35.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02019/2020 36.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02020/2021 36.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02021/2022 36.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02022/2023 37.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02023/2024 37.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02024/2025 37.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02025/2026 38.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02026/2027 38.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02027/2028 38.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02028/2029 38.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02029/2030 39.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02030/2031 39.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02031/2032 40.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02032/2033 40.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02033/2034 40.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02034/2035 41.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.02035/2036 41.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0


Table 7-13Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Northwest Territories, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 43.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 43.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 44.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 44.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 45.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 45.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 46.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02016/2017 46.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02017/2018 46.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02018/2019 47.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02019/2020 47.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02020/2021 48.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.02021/2022 48.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02022/2023 49.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02023/2024 49.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02024/2025 50.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02025/2026 50.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02026/2027 51.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02027/2028 51.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.02028/2029 52.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02029/2030 52.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02030/2031 53.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02031/2032 54.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.02032/2033 54.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.02033/2034 55.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.02034/2035 55.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.02035/2036 56.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Table 7-14Components of population growth, high-growth scenario (H) — Nunavut, 2009/2010 to 2035/2036





thousands

2009/2010 32.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02010/2011 32.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02011/2012 33.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02012/2013 33.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02013/2014 33.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02014/2015 34.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02015/2016 34.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.02016/2017 35.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02017/2018 35.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02018/2019 36.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02019/2020 36.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02020/2021 37.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02021/2022 37.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02022/2023 38.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02023/2024 38.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02024/2025 38.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02025/2026 39.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02026/2027 39.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02027/2028 40.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02028/2029 40.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02029/2030 40.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02030/2031 41.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02031/2032 41.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02032/2033 42.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02033/2034 42.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02034/2035 43.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.02035/2036 43.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0




Table 8Estimated population by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories, July 1st, 20091

Ageandsex

Canada Newfoundlandand Labrador

PrinceEdward

Island

NovaScotia

NewBrunswick

Quebec Ontario

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 943.4 12.1 3.5 22.6 18.2 213.4 361.75 to 9 years 925.7 12.7 3.9 23.1 19.2 197.9 369.810 to 14 years 1,011.8 14.3 4.6 26.5 21.6 221.1 402.715 to 19 years 1,153.3 16.5 5.2 31.0 24.7 258.9 452.120 to 24 years 1,192.6 15.5 4.7 31.0 24.3 249.2 464.225 to 29 years 1,185.6 14.4 3.7 26.6 22.8 273.2 442.330 to 34 years 1,131.7 14.7 3.8 26.4 22.5 271.8 424.735 to 39 years 1,160.6 16.5 4.4 30.0 24.2 258.5 457.440 to 44 years 1,251.8 19.2 5.1 33.0 26.6 286.9 500.645 to 49 years 1,402.8 21.3 5.7 39.4 30.4 328.6 552.050 to 54 years 1,282.9 20.6 5.3 37.3 29.9 310.6 482.555 to 59 years 1,093.2 20.1 4.9 33.6 27.6 268.4 402.960 to 64 years 925.9 17.7 4.6 30.3 24.6 231.8 343.665 to 69 years 681.7 12.3 3.1 22.0 17.7 176.3 252.270 to 74 years 507.3 8.9 2.5 16.4 12.7 125.1 193.175 to 79 years 408.8 6.4 1.9 12.2 9.5 99.7 156.980 to 84 years 275.2 4.0 1.2 8.0 6.4 64.7 107.385 to 89 years 143.4 1.9 0.6 4.4 3.6 31.3 55.790 to 94 years 44.0 0.5 0.2 1.5 1.2 9.3 16.295 to 99 years 9.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.9 3.6100 years and over 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4Total 16,732.5 249.6 68.8 455.5 367.9 3,878.8 6,441.9

Females0 to 4 years 894.3 11.2 3.4 21.4 17.3 202.6 343.95 to 9 years 873.6 12.3 3.7 22.2 18.2 187.7 349.910 to 14 years 962.8 13.4 4.3 25.3 20.0 211.0 384.815 to 19 years 1,098.8 15.5 5.1 30.5 23.5 246.6 433.520 to 24 years 1,128.9 15.5 4.6 31.2 22.7 238.8 444.825 to 29 years 1,162.3 14.7 4.1 29.2 22.7 261.6 447.730 to 34 years 1,130.0 15.6 4.2 28.5 23.4 260.4 443.535 to 39 years 1,142.4 17.7 4.4 31.2 24.8 244.9 463.240 to 44 years 1,232.9 20.5 5.0 34.1 27.4 275.5 499.345 to 49 years 1,387.3 21.6 6.0 40.7 31.8 322.3 545.750 to 54 years 1,292.5 21.6 5.6 39.1 31.2 314.5 487.155 to 59 years 1,123.6 20.8 5.1 34.7 28.6 277.9 420.160 to 64 years 961.7 18.0 4.7 31.5 24.9 244.4 361.065 to 69 years 725.4 12.7 3.4 23.5 18.2 189.7 272.870 to 74 years 573.5 9.6 2.7 18.2 14.1 143.8 223.075 to 79 years 499.2 7.5 2.2 15.3 11.9 128.0 193.280 to 84 years 400.4 5.6 1.7 12.0 9.8 100.6 156.285 to 89 years 269.3 3.7 1.3 8.7 7.0 63.7 104.290 to 94 years 111.2 1.5 0.6 4.1 3.1 27.2 39.795 to 99 years 32.6 0.4 0.2 1.2 0.9 7.8 11.6100 years and over 4.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.8Total 17,007.4 259.3 72.2 482.7 381.5 3,950.1 6,627.2

See notes at the end of the table.



Table 8 – continued

Estimated population by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories, July 1st, 20091

Ageandsex

Canada Newfoundlandand Labrador

PrinceEdward

Island

NovaScotia

NewBrunswick

Quebec Ontario

thousands

Both sexes0 to 4 years 1,837.7 23.3 6.9 44.0 35.6 416.0 705.65 to 9 years 1,799.3 25.0 7.5 45.3 37.4 385.6 719.710 to 14 years 1,974.6 27.7 8.8 51.8 41.6 432.0 787.515 to 19 years 2,252.1 32.0 10.3 61.4 48.2 505.5 885.720 to 24 years 2,321.4 31.0 9.3 62.2 47.0 488.0 909.025 to 29 years 2,347.9 29.0 7.8 55.8 45.6 534.9 890.130 to 34 years 2,261.7 30.3 8.0 54.9 45.8 532.1 868.235 to 39 years 2,303.0 34.1 8.8 61.2 49.0 503.4 920.640 to 44 years 2,484.7 39.6 10.1 67.1 54.0 562.4 1,000.045 to 49 years 2,790.1 42.8 11.7 80.1 62.3 650.9 1,097.750 to 54 years 2,575.4 42.3 10.9 76.4 61.1 625.1 969.655 to 59 years 2,216.8 40.9 10.0 68.3 56.1 546.3 823.060 to 64 years 1,887.6 35.7 9.3 61.8 49.4 476.1 704.765 to 69 years 1,407.1 25.0 6.5 45.5 35.9 366.0 525.070 to 74 years 1,080.8 18.5 5.2 34.6 26.8 268.8 416.275 to 79 years 908.0 14.0 4.1 27.5 21.4 227.7 350.180 to 84 years 675.6 9.6 2.9 20.0 16.2 165.3 263.585 to 89 years 412.7 5.6 1.9 13.0 10.6 95.0 159.990 to 94 years 155.2 2.0 0.8 5.6 4.2 36.5 55.995 to 99 years 42.1 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.1 9.7 15.2100 years and over 6.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.4 2.2Total 33,739.9 508.9 141.0 938.2 749.5 7,828.9 13,069.2

Median age of total population 39.5 42.9 41.7 42.6 42.4 41.1 39.2

Dependency ratiosAged 0-14 23.9 21.3 24.2 21.7 22.1 22.7 24.4Aged 65 and over 20.0 21.0 22.5 22.8 22.5 21.6 19.7Total 43.9 42.3 46.8 44.5 44.5 44.3 44.1






Ageandsex

Manitoba Saskat-chewan

Alberta BritishColumbia

Yukon NorthwestTerritories

Nunavut

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 38.6 33.8 121.8 113.3 1.0 1.8 1.95 to 9 years 38.3 32.1 110.6 113.7 1.0 1.4 1.810 to 14 years 41.6 34.4 113.9 127.0 1.0 1.5 1.715 to 19 years 45.7 38.9 127.6 147.9 1.2 2.0 1.720 to 24 years 44.6 38.9 153.0 162.6 1.2 1.8 1.625 to 29 years 42.5 35.9 164.5 155.5 1.1 1.9 1.330 to 34 years 39.4 32.3 150.4 141.6 1.1 1.8 1.335 to 39 years 39.8 30.3 144.7 150.7 1.2 1.8 1.140 to 44 years 41.4 32.5 139.9 162.8 1.3 1.6 1.145 to 49 years 48.1 39.0 151.1 182.6 1.6 1.8 1.050 to 54 years 45.3 38.0 139.1 170.2 1.6 1.5 0.855 to 59 years 38.2 32.6 109.6 152.0 1.4 1.4 0.660 to 64 years 31.7 26.0 83.9 129.4 1.0 0.9 0.465 to 69 years 22.9 19.4 58.1 96.4 0.6 0.5 0.270 to 74 years 17.0 15.7 42.1 73.1 0.4 0.3 0.175 to 79 years 14.3 13.6 34.5 59.4 0.2 0.2 0.180 to 84 years 10.3 10.1 22.6 40.5 0.1 0.1 0.085 to 89 years 5.9 5.6 11.7 22.7 0.0 0.0 0.090 to 94 years 2.1 2.1 3.8 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.095 to 99 years 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0100 years and over 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 608.1 511.6 1,883.5 2,210.3 17.1 22.5 16.8

Females0 to 4 years 36.8 32.0 115.4 105.9 0.9 1.6 1.75 to 9 years 36.2 30.4 102.9 106.1 0.9 1.6 1.610 to 14 years 39.3 32.7 108.3 119.4 1.0 1.5 1.715 to 19 years 44.0 36.8 120.8 138.1 1.1 1.8 1.620 to 24 years 42.2 36.6 138.3 150.0 1.1 1.6 1.425 to 29 years 40.6 35.5 146.8 154.9 1.1 2.0 1.430 to 34 years 38.6 32.2 134.7 144.8 1.2 1.7 1.135 to 39 years 38.7 29.8 130.7 152.9 1.3 1.5 1.140 to 44 years 40.3 32.0 129.8 165.0 1.4 1.6 1.145 to 49 years 46.5 39.1 144.1 185.3 1.7 1.7 0.950 to 54 years 43.6 38.1 131.6 176.6 1.4 1.5 0.655 to 59 years 38.8 31.9 105.7 157.2 1.2 1.1 0.560 to 64 years 32.7 26.2 83.4 133.1 0.9 0.6 0.465 to 69 years 24.4 20.3 59.7 99.5 0.5 0.4 0.270 to 74 years 19.6 17.5 46.7 77.6 0.3 0.3 0.175 to 79 years 17.8 16.3 40.4 65.9 0.2 0.2 0.180 to 84 years 15.4 14.0 31.3 53.5 0.1 0.1 0.085 to 89 years 11.5 10.1 21.1 37.8 0.1 0.1 0.090 to 94 years 5.0 4.9 9.2 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.095 to 99 years 1.6 1.6 2.8 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0100 years and over 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 613.9 518.5 1,804.2 2,244.9 16.5 21.0 15.4






Ageandsex

Manitoba Saskat-chewan

Alberta BritishColumbia

Yukon NorthwestTerritories

Nunavut

thousands

Both sexes0 to 4 years 75.4 65.8 237.1 219.2 1.9 3.4 3.55 to 9 years 74.5 62.6 213.4 219.8 2.0 3.1 3.410 to 14 years 81.0 67.1 222.2 246.4 2.0 3.0 3.415 to 19 years 89.7 75.8 248.3 286.0 2.3 3.8 3.220 to 24 years 86.8 75.5 291.3 312.6 2.3 3.5 3.025 to 29 years 83.1 71.4 311.3 310.4 2.2 3.9 2.730 to 34 years 78.0 64.5 285.1 286.4 2.2 3.6 2.435 to 39 years 78.5 60.2 275.5 303.6 2.5 3.3 2.240 to 44 years 81.7 64.5 269.7 327.8 2.7 3.1 2.245 to 49 years 94.6 78.2 295.2 368.0 3.3 3.5 1.950 to 54 years 88.9 76.1 270.7 346.8 3.1 3.0 1.555 to 59 years 77.0 64.5 215.3 309.2 2.6 2.5 1.160 to 64 years 64.3 52.2 167.3 262.5 1.9 1.6 0.865 to 69 years 47.2 39.7 117.8 195.9 1.1 0.9 0.570 to 74 years 36.6 33.2 88.8 150.6 0.7 0.5 0.275 to 79 years 32.1 29.9 74.9 125.3 0.5 0.4 0.180 to 84 years 25.7 24.1 53.9 94.0 0.2 0.2 0.185 to 89 years 17.4 15.7 32.8 60.5 0.1 0.1 0.090 to 94 years 7.1 7.0 13.0 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.095 to 99 years 2.0 2.1 3.5 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0100 years and over 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 1,222.0 1,030.1 3,687.7 4,455.2 33.7 43.4 32.2

Median age of total population 37.7 37.7 35.6 40.7 39.0 31.5 24.2

Dependency ratiosAged 0-14 28.1 28.6 25.6 22.0 23.2 29.8 49.3Aged 65 and over 20.5 22.3 14.6 21.1 10.7 7.1 4.6Total 48.6 50.9 40.2 43.1 33.9 36.9 54.0

1. Preliminary postcensal estimates of total population of Canada, provinces and territories, as of July 1st, 2009. For projection purposes, the 90 years andover age group was further distributed using the 2006 Census distribution.



Table 9-1Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Canada, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 962.8 980.9 997.7 1,012.4 1,026.65 to 9 years 929.0 939.5 954.4 973.2 991.010 to 14 years 994.1 978.6 968.7 966.3 970.115 to 19 years 1,140.7 1,124.1 1,106.9 1,086.6 1,067.520 to 24 years 1,213.7 1,233.5 1,249.6 1,260.3 1,257.025 to 29 years 1,213.7 1,235.2 1,252.0 1,265.4 1,284.030 to 34 years 1,155.5 1,183.9 1,213.4 1,246.1 1,278.135 to 39 years 1,159.8 1,161.1 1,171.1 1,185.2 1,206.140 to 44 years 1,225.3 1,216.6 1,214.2 1,213.3 1,209.945 to 49 years 1,408.3 1,391.4 1,361.2 1,318.5 1,279.650 to 54 years 1,308.8 1,337.4 1,358.3 1,383.6 1,405.155 to 59 years 1,129.4 1,163.7 1,202.6 1,238.4 1,266.760 to 64 years 965.2 999.5 1,011.1 1,031.7 1,062.665 to 69 years 712.9 745.0 798.0 841.1 878.570 to 74 years 520.6 540.0 564.1 593.2 623.475 to 79 years 412.0 415.2 417.7 424.2 435.180 to 84 years 283.7 292.7 301.5 308.0 312.785 to 89 years 150.8 157.0 162.6 169.0 174.790 to 94 years 48.1 53.1 58.3 62.8 67.495 to 99 years 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.3100 years and over 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2Total 16,945.8 17,160.1 17,375.5 17,592.0 17,809.5

Females0 to 4 years 914.8 933.7 950.2 964.8 979.05 to 9 years 875.5 886.0 901.6 920.4 938.710 to 14 years 944.9 926.5 916.5 912.3 914.215 to 19 years 1,088.2 1,073.9 1,053.9 1,033.6 1,014.420 to 24 years 1,148.2 1,166.9 1,183.3 1,194.8 1,193.725 to 29 years 1,184.2 1,199.7 1,212.0 1,221.6 1,235.730 to 34 years 1,154.9 1,184.9 1,214.1 1,243.6 1,270.935 to 39 years 1,146.4 1,150.7 1,165.5 1,184.3 1,208.240 to 44 years 1,205.7 1,198.9 1,197.2 1,196.8 1,196.445 to 49 years 1,390.8 1,371.4 1,340.5 1,300.6 1,263.450 to 54 years 1,314.3 1,339.2 1,357.0 1,378.1 1,395.455 to 59 years 1,160.9 1,195.3 1,232.7 1,264.1 1,287.760 to 64 years 1,004.3 1,040.8 1,053.7 1,076.9 1,110.065 to 69 years 757.0 790.7 846.7 893.1 934.570 to 74 years 585.7 604.7 628.4 657.6 688.175 to 79 years 500.6 502.3 504.5 510.2 521.380 to 84 years 404.1 409.2 414.2 418.2 420.185 to 89 years 278.1 284.1 287.7 291.5 294.290 to 94 years 119.2 128.9 138.8 147.7 155.895 to 99 years 35.0 36.6 38.1 39.5 41.4100 years and over 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.7Total 17,217.7 17,429.2 17,641.7 17,855.0 18,068.8

Both sexes0 to 4 years 1,877.6 1,914.6 1,947.8 1,977.2 2,005.65 to 9 years 1,804.5 1,825.4 1,856.0 1,893.6 1,929.710 to 14 years 1,939.0 1,905.1 1,885.2 1,878.6 1,884.315 to 19 years 2,228.9 2,197.9 2,160.8 2,120.3 2,081.920 to 24 years 2,362.0 2,400.4 2,432.9 2,455.1 2,450.725 to 29 years 2,397.9 2,434.9 2,464.0 2,487.1 2,519.630 to 34 years 2,310.4 2,368.8 2,427.5 2,489.7 2,549.035 to 39 years 2,306.2 2,311.8 2,336.5 2,369.5 2,414.340 to 44 years 2,431.0 2,415.5 2,411.3 2,410.1 2,406.345 to 49 years 2,799.1 2,762.7 2,701.7 2,619.1 2,542.950 to 54 years 2,623.1 2,676.6 2,715.3 2,761.6 2,800.555 to 59 years 2,290.4 2,359.1 2,435.3 2,502.5 2,554.460 to 64 years 1,969.4 2,040.3 2,064.8 2,108.6 2,172.665 to 69 years 1,469.9 1,535.7 1,644.7 1,734.2 1,813.070 to 74 years 1,106.3 1,144.7 1,192.5 1,250.8 1,311.575 to 79 years 912.6 917.4 922.2 934.3 956.480 to 84 years 687.8 701.9 715.8 726.1 732.885 to 89 years 429.0 441.2 450.3 460.5 468.990 to 94 years 167.3 182.0 197.0 210.5 223.295 to 99 years 45.2 47.4 49.3 51.2 53.7100 years and over 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.4 7.0Total 34,163.5 34,589.3 35,017.2 35,447.0 35,878.3

Median age of total population 39.7 39.9 40.0 40.1 40.2

Dependency ratios0 to 14 years 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.865 years and over 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.7Total 44.0 44.3 45.0 45.7 46.5



Table 9-2Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.35 to 9 years 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.110 to 14 years 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.615 to 19 years 15.9 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.720 to 24 years 15.9 16.2 16.3 16.2 15.825 to 29 years 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.830 to 34 years 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.735 to 39 years 16.1 15.8 15.5 15.6 15.740 to 44 years 18.7 18.3 18.1 17.7 17.345 to 49 years 21.2 21.0 20.6 20.1 19.650 to 54 years 20.6 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.355 to 59 years 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.2 20.160 to 64 years 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.765 to 69 years 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.8 16.570 to 74 years 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.5 11.175 to 79 years 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.380 to 84 years 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.685 to 89 years 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.290 to 94 years 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.795 to 99 years 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1100 years and over 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 250.9 252.2 253.6 255.0 256.4

Females0 to 4 years 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.85 to 9 years 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.410 to 14 years 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.015 to 19 years 14.8 14.4 14.1 13.9 13.720 to 24 years 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.7 15.425 to 29 years 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.830 to 34 years 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.335 to 39 years 17.3 16.9 16.6 16.5 16.540 to 44 years 19.8 19.3 18.9 18.4 18.145 to 49 years 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.0 20.550 to 54 years 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.2 21.355 to 59 years 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.8 21.760 to 64 years 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.665 to 69 years 13.5 14.7 15.8 16.6 17.570 to 74 years 9.8 10.2 10.7 11.3 11.975 to 79 years 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.380 to 84 years 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.185 to 89 years 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.990 to 94 years 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.095 to 99 years 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5100 years and over 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Total 260.9 262.5 264.1 265.8 267.5

Both sexes0 to 4 years 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.25 to 9 years 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.510 to 14 years 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.615 to 19 years 30.8 29.9 29.3 28.9 28.520 to 24 years 31.7 32.1 32.2 31.9 31.225 to 29 years 29.3 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.630 to 34 years 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.5 32.035 to 39 years 33.4 32.8 32.2 32.1 32.240 to 44 years 38.5 37.6 36.9 36.1 35.445 to 49 years 42.9 42.5 41.9 41.1 40.150 to 54 years 42.1 42.3 42.3 42.3 42.555 to 59 years 41.4 41.7 42.0 42.0 41.960 to 64 years 37.3 38.1 38.8 39.5 40.365 to 69 years 26.4 28.5 30.6 32.5 34.070 to 74 years 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.8 23.075 to 79 years 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.780 to 84 years 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.5 10.785 to 89 years 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.190 to 94 years 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.795 to 99 years 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7100 years and over 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Total 511.8 514.7 517.7 520.8 523.9





Table 9-3Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Prince Edward Island, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 9-4Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Nova Scotia, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 9-5Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — New Brunswick, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 9-6Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Quebec, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 219.8 224.9 227.5 229.1 229.55 to 9 years 198.4 201.1 206.8 214.0 221.810 to 14 years 214.9 209.5 205.5 203.8 204.115 to 19 years 255.6 249.9 243.5 235.8 228.320 to 24 years 253.9 260.6 269.0 275.1 276.525 to 29 years 272.2 269.8 266.3 265.2 266.930 to 34 years 278.9 285.8 289.8 291.8 293.135 to 39 years 261.0 265.0 272.0 279.5 286.940 to 44 years 276.6 270.7 266.7 265.6 265.845 to 49 years 328.5 322.7 313.5 301.1 288.850 to 54 years 314.5 319.5 321.3 323.6 325.655 to 59 years 276.5 282.9 291.6 299.4 304.860 to 64 years 237.8 243.7 247.2 252.4 259.165 to 69 years 185.6 193.6 203.3 210.9 218.170 to 74 years 128.9 135.2 142.8 151.1 159.475 to 79 years 100.8 101.8 101.7 103.0 106.280 to 84 years 67.0 69.2 72.0 74.0 75.485 to 89 years 33.6 35.5 37.0 38.7 40.290 to 94 years 10.0 10.9 12.1 13.1 14.195 to 99 years 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4100 years and over 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Total 3,916.6 3,954.4 3,992.2 4,029.8 4,067.4

Females0 to 4 years 209.0 213.6 216.4 218.3 219.15 to 9 years 188.1 191.4 196.6 203.1 210.310 to 14 years 204.4 198.4 194.9 193.2 193.515 to 19 years 244.1 239.0 232.4 225.3 218.220 to 24 years 243.1 249.5 256.4 261.7 262.825 to 29 years 260.1 257.4 254.7 253.6 254.830 to 34 years 267.5 274.6 277.5 278.8 279.135 to 39 years 246.9 250.0 257.6 265.8 273.640 to 44 years 264.8 259.0 254.8 252.2 251.745 to 49 years 319.8 311.5 301.8 289.3 277.650 to 54 years 317.4 321.1 321.2 321.8 321.055 to 59 years 285.9 292.2 299.9 306.7 311.160 to 64 years 250.7 256.7 260.3 265.6 272.365 to 69 years 199.9 209.5 219.8 227.8 235.470 to 74 years 147.1 152.8 160.6 169.6 178.975 to 79 years 127.9 127.6 126.9 127.5 130.080 to 84 years 102.1 103.9 105.8 106.8 107.185 to 89 years 66.8 69.0 70.6 72.2 73.590 to 94 years 28.5 30.5 32.7 34.8 36.995 to 99 years 8.4 8.9 9.3 9.8 10.2100 years and over 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4Total 3,983.8 4,017.6 4,051.4 4,085.1 4,118.4

Both sexes0 to 4 years 428.8 438.5 443.8 447.3 448.65 to 9 years 386.5 392.5 403.4 417.1 432.110 to 14 years 419.3 407.9 400.4 397.0 397.615 to 19 years 499.7 488.8 476.0 461.1 446.520 to 24 years 497.0 510.1 525.4 536.8 539.325 to 29 years 532.4 527.2 521.0 518.7 521.730 to 34 years 546.4 560.4 567.3 570.6 572.235 to 39 years 507.9 515.0 529.6 545.2 560.540 to 44 years 541.4 529.6 521.5 517.8 517.545 to 49 years 648.3 634.2 615.3 590.4 566.450 to 54 years 631.9 640.5 642.6 645.4 646.655 to 59 years 562.4 575.0 591.5 606.1 615.960 to 64 years 488.5 500.4 507.5 518.0 531.365 to 69 years 385.5 403.1 423.1 438.7 453.570 to 74 years 276.0 288.1 303.4 320.7 338.375 to 79 years 228.7 229.4 228.6 230.6 236.280 to 84 years 169.1 173.0 177.8 180.8 182.585 to 89 years 100.4 104.6 107.6 110.9 113.790 to 94 years 38.5 41.4 44.8 47.9 51.195 to 99 years 10.4 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.7100 years and over 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6Total 7,900.4 7,972.0 8,043.6 8,114.9 8,185.8





Table 9-7Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Ontario, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 710.3 715.5 723.9 732.1 740.95 to 9 years 720.4 725.8 729.6 734.7 737.710 to 14 years 772.9 758.6 750.2 746.0 747.615 to 19 years 879.3 869.8 857.1 843.0 828.820 to 24 years 924.2 938.0 947.9 955.9 954.625 to 29 years 910.6 926.1 941.2 951.0 964.430 to 34 years 874.6 887.1 903.8 925.3 945.835 to 39 years 913.9 906.2 902.5 902.2 907.840 to 44 years 976.0 966.2 961.0 955.3 947.145 to 49 years 1,108.5 1,099.9 1,079.1 1,047.4 1,016.050 to 54 years 994.6 1,023.3 1,046.5 1,074.0 1,098.255 to 59 years 851.1 877.8 908.5 936.1 960.760 to 64 years 736.9 764.2 769.4 783.7 806.765 to 69 years 545.1 568.7 612.8 648.2 678.670 to 74 years 424.9 436.8 452.5 472.2 492.175 to 79 years 351.9 353.8 356.7 361.8 370.580 to 84 years 267.8 273.1 277.6 281.2 283.885 to 89 years 167.1 172.3 176.4 180.4 183.190 to 94 years 61.1 67.7 74.1 80.2 86.095 to 99 years 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.0100 years and over 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5Total 13,209.6 13,350.0 13,490.5 13,631.1 13,771.8





Table 9-8Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Manitoba, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 9-9Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 9-10Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Alberta, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 9-11Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — British Columbia, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 9-12Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Yukon, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 9-13Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Northwest Territories, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 9-14Population by age group and sex, short-term scenario (S), July 1st — Nunavut, 2010 to 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

thousands








Table 10-1Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Canada, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 956.9 965.0 967.3 962.0 951.6 945.8 942.8 955.9 953.5 934.2 923.85 to 9 years 928.1 937.6 951.7 968.4 984.3 996.9 1,004.0 982.1 996.6 995.6 977.510 to 14 years 994.5 979.0 968.9 965.0 967.0 968.3 976.7 1,042.2 1,021.7 1,037.5 1,037.815 to 19 years 1,141.4 1,126.1 1,110.1 1,089.6 1,070.2 1,052.2 1,036.0 1,032.6 1,099.0 1,080.0 1,097.020 to 24 years 1,211.2 1,227.9 1,241.6 1,249.8 1,245.2 1,232.8 1,216.7 1,123.5 1,121.0 1,188.5 1,171.125 to 29 years 1,206.1 1,220.7 1,230.9 1,236.8 1,248.4 1,262.1 1,274.3 1,250.0 1,157.6 1,157.0 1,225.830 to 34 years 1,151.6 1,174.3 1,196.5 1,217.6 1,236.4 1,251.4 1,260.9 1,302.5 1,279.7 1,190.9 1,192.535 to 39 years 1,157.4 1,156.0 1,162.8 1,171.3 1,185.6 1,201.3 1,219.9 1,297.7 1,340.5 1,320.6 1,235.140 to 44 years 1,223.2 1,212.0 1,206.6 1,200.9 1,192.4 1,186.3 1,182.0 1,239.3 1,317.5 1,362.0 1,344.245 to 49 years 1,406.2 1,386.7 1,353.4 1,306.5 1,263.5 1,233.3 1,220.3 1,186.8 1,244.8 1,323.8 1,369.550 to 54 years 1,307.4 1,334.2 1,353.4 1,376.0 1,394.3 1,396.5 1,376.1 1,211.1 1,180.0 1,239.1 1,318.855 to 59 years 1,128.5 1,161.7 1,199.1 1,232.7 1,258.5 1,281.9 1,307.7 1,349.0 1,190.5 1,162.5 1,222.860 to 64 years 964.8 998.4 1,009.1 1,028.4 1,057.9 1,092.0 1,124.1 1,267.4 1,311.2 1,161.3 1,137.265 to 69 years 712.5 744.1 796.6 838.6 874.9 911.8 943.8 1,067.3 1,208.4 1,255.1 1,116.970 to 74 years 520.1 539.0 562.5 590.7 620.0 648.5 678.0 864.9 984.9 1,121.7 1,171.575 to 79 years 411.7 414.4 416.5 422.1 432.2 444.1 461.2 586.0 754.0 867.3 995.980 to 84 years 283.5 292.2 300.5 306.4 310.4 313.5 316.5 358.1 461.0 599.9 699.485 to 89 years 150.7 156.7 162.0 168.1 173.3 179.2 185.4 203.7 235.1 307.4 405.090 to 94 years 48.1 53.0 58.1 62.5 66.8 70.3 73.4 88.4 98.3 116.0 154.095 to 99 years 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.6 15.2 21.0 25.7 28.8 34.8100 years and over 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.4 3.8Total 16,915.0 17,090.7 17,259.5 17,406.2 17,546.3 17,683.1 17,816.4 18,431.4 18,983.7 19,452.6 19,834.4

Females0 to 4 years 909.5 919.0 921.9 917.8 908.4 902.9 899.9 912.4 910.1 891.6 881.85 to 9 years 874.8 884.4 899.1 915.9 932.6 947.0 955.7 936.7 950.5 949.5 932.110 to 14 years 944.7 926.0 915.6 909.8 910.1 910.3 918.8 989.1 971.4 986.3 986.415 to 19 years 1,089.2 1,075.6 1,056.3 1,035.6 1,015.7 997.1 977.7 969.5 1,040.6 1,024.3 1,040.220 to 24 years 1,148.0 1,166.5 1,183.2 1,193.8 1,192.2 1,181.8 1,167.2 1,066.6 1,059.6 1,132.0 1,117.125 to 29 years 1,177.8 1,187.7 1,194.7 1,197.6 1,206.0 1,219.9 1,233.7 1,223.1 1,124.3 1,120.0 1,194.230 to 34 years 1,150.0 1,173.7 1,195.5 1,213.8 1,229.2 1,239.4 1,244.4 1,280.6 1,272.1 1,177.2 1,175.535 to 39 years 1,143.7 1,144.8 1,156.0 1,168.5 1,184.9 1,201.2 1,221.2 1,285.4 1,323.1 1,317.2 1,225.440 to 44 years 1,203.2 1,193.6 1,188.4 1,182.8 1,177.3 1,176.2 1,174.9 1,246.6 1,311.6 1,351.1 1,347.145 to 49 years 1,388.3 1,366.3 1,332.8 1,289.2 1,248.1 1,217.0 1,205.8 1,184.8 1,257.1 1,323.1 1,363.750 to 54 years 1,313.3 1,336.7 1,352.8 1,371.4 1,385.7 1,385.7 1,363.1 1,203.6 1,184.1 1,257.0 1,323.755 to 59 years 1,160.2 1,193.5 1,229.7 1,259.3 1,281.0 1,301.0 1,323.6 1,349.8 1,194.5 1,176.9 1,250.460 to 64 years 1,003.6 1,039.5 1,051.7 1,073.8 1,105.7 1,141.2 1,173.7 1,301.9 1,329.5 1,179.7 1,164.365 to 69 years 756.7 790.2 845.8 891.4 931.7 972.0 1,006.5 1,138.0 1,264.4 1,293.6 1,151.570 to 74 years 585.2 603.6 626.7 655.2 684.9 714.6 746.3 952.5 1,080.5 1,203.8 1,235.475 to 79 years 500.2 501.5 503.1 508.1 518.5 529.6 546.8 679.5 870.7 993.0 1,111.780 to 84 years 403.7 408.2 412.7 416.0 417.3 418.9 420.7 463.3 580.5 748.8 861.885 to 89 years 277.8 283.3 286.4 289.5 291.6 294.9 299.1 311.9 348.4 441.6 575.590 to 94 years 119.0 128.4 137.9 146.4 154.0 159.2 162.7 174.7 184.9 210.7 271.895 to 99 years 34.9 36.5 37.8 39.1 40.8 44.2 48.1 61.2 67.1 72.3 84.8100 years and over 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.3 8.7 11.0 12.4 13.7Total 17,188.5 17,363.8 17,533.0 17,680.0 17,821.3 17,960.1 18,096.4 18,739.8 19,335.9 19,861.9 20,308.1

Both sexes0 to 4 years 1,866.4 1,884.0 1,889.2 1,879.8 1,860.0 1,848.7 1,842.7 1,868.2 1,863.7 1,825.8 1,805.65 to 9 years 1,802.9 1,822.0 1,850.8 1,884.3 1,916.9 1,943.8 1,959.7 1,918.8 1,947.1 1,945.1 1,909.610 to 14 years 1,939.2 1,905.0 1,884.5 1,874.8 1,877.1 1,878.5 1,895.5 2,031.3 1,993.1 2,023.8 2,024.215 to 19 years 2,230.5 2,201.6 2,166.4 2,125.2 2,085.9 2,049.3 2,013.7 2,002.1 2,139.6 2,104.3 2,137.220 to 24 years 2,359.1 2,394.4 2,424.8 2,443.6 2,437.4 2,414.5 2,384.0 2,190.1 2,180.6 2,320.5 2,288.225 to 29 years 2,383.9 2,408.3 2,425.6 2,434.4 2,454.3 2,482.0 2,508.0 2,473.0 2,281.9 2,277.0 2,420.030 to 34 years 2,301.6 2,348.0 2,392.0 2,431.4 2,465.7 2,490.9 2,505.4 2,583.2 2,551.8 2,368.1 2,368.135 to 39 years 2,301.1 2,300.8 2,318.8 2,339.8 2,370.5 2,402.5 2,441.2 2,583.1 2,663.7 2,637.8 2,460.540 to 44 years 2,426.4 2,405.6 2,395.0 2,383.7 2,369.7 2,362.4 2,356.9 2,485.9 2,629.1 2,713.0 2,691.345 to 49 years 2,794.5 2,753.0 2,686.1 2,595.7 2,511.6 2,450.3 2,426.1 2,371.6 2,501.9 2,646.9 2,733.250 to 54 years 2,620.7 2,671.0 2,706.2 2,747.5 2,780.0 2,782.2 2,739.2 2,414.7 2,364.1 2,496.2 2,642.455 to 59 years 2,288.7 2,355.3 2,428.7 2,492.0 2,539.5 2,582.9 2,631.3 2,698.8 2,385.0 2,339.4 2,473.260 to 64 years 1,968.4 2,037.9 2,060.8 2,102.2 2,163.5 2,233.2 2,297.8 2,569.3 2,640.6 2,340.9 2,301.565 to 69 years 1,469.2 1,534.3 1,642.4 1,730.0 1,806.7 1,883.8 1,950.3 2,205.3 2,472.7 2,548.7 2,268.470 to 74 years 1,105.3 1,142.6 1,189.2 1,245.9 1,304.9 1,363.1 1,424.3 1,817.4 2,065.4 2,325.5 2,406.975 to 79 years 911.9 915.9 919.6 930.3 950.7 973.6 1,008.1 1,265.4 1,624.7 1,860.3 2,107.680 to 84 years 687.2 700.4 713.3 722.4 727.7 732.3 737.2 821.4 1,041.5 1,348.6 1,561.285 to 89 years 428.4 440.0 448.3 457.6 464.9 474.1 484.5 515.6 583.4 749.0 980.490 to 94 years 167.0 181.4 196.0 208.9 220.8 229.5 236.1 263.1 283.3 326.7 425.895 to 99 years 45.1 47.2 49.0 50.7 53.0 57.8 63.2 82.2 92.8 101.1 119.6100 years and over 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.7 10.6 13.7 15.8 17.4Total 34,103.4 34,454.5 34,792.4 35,086.3 35,367.6 35,643.2 35,912.8 37,171.2 38,319.6 39,314.5 40,142.4

Median age of total population 39.7 39.9 40.1 40.3 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.8 42.9 43.9 44.9

Dependency ratios0 to 14 years 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.9 23.8 23.9 23.465 years and over 20.4 20.8 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.3 28.6 33.6 38.3 40.3Total 44.0 44.3 44.9 45.6 46.3 47.0 47.8 52.5 57.4 62.2 63.7



Table 10-2Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 12.0 11.8 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.3 9.9 9.4 8.8 8.45 to 9 years 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.2 10.8 10.4 10.0 9.510 to 14 years 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.8 12.6 11.3 11.0 10.615 to 19 years 15.8 15.2 14.8 14.4 14.1 14.0 13.7 12.7 12.7 11.5 11.320 to 24 years 15.9 16.1 16.0 15.7 15.3 14.7 14.2 13.0 12.2 12.3 11.425 to 29 years 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 13.5 12.4 11.8 12.030 to 34 years 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.4 15.0 13.7 12.6 12.235 to 39 years 16.0 15.5 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.7 15.3 14.2 13.140 to 44 years 18.6 18.1 17.7 17.1 16.6 16.1 15.7 14.9 15.0 15.7 14.645 to 49 years 21.0 20.7 20.2 19.6 19.0 18.5 18.0 15.7 15.0 15.2 15.950 to 54 years 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.7 20.4 17.7 15.6 15.0 15.355 to 59 years 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.2 20.0 17.4 15.4 14.960 to 64 years 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.5 19.7 19.5 17.1 15.265 to 69 years 12.9 13.8 14.8 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.5 18.3 18.7 18.7 16.470 to 74 years 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.4 11.0 11.5 12.4 15.8 16.8 17.3 17.475 to 79 years 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.9 10.3 13.2 14.3 14.980 to 84 years 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.8 10.885 to 89 years 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.3 4.5 5.990 to 94 years 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.995 to 99 years 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3100 years and over 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 249.3 248.9 248.5 248.1 247.6 247.1 246.6 244.0 240.9 236.8 232.1

Females0 to 4 years 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.4 9.0 8.4 8.05 to 9 years 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 10.3 10.0 9.5 9.010 to 14 years 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.3 12.2 11.8 10.8 10.5 10.115 to 19 years 14.7 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.2 11.9 11.0 10.720 to 24 years 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.0 14.6 14.0 13.6 12.4 11.7 11.7 10.925 to 29 years 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.0 13.4 12.3 11.7 11.830 to 34 years 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.5 14.1 12.9 12.435 to 39 years 17.2 16.8 16.4 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.6 16.0 14.7 13.540 to 44 years 19.7 19.1 18.6 18.1 17.7 17.3 16.9 15.8 16.0 16.3 15.145 to 49 years 21.8 21.6 21.3 20.9 20.3 19.6 19.0 16.9 15.9 16.1 16.550 to 54 years 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.5 21.3 18.8 16.8 15.9 16.255 to 59 years 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.1 18.6 16.7 16.060 to 64 years 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.4 20.7 20.8 21.0 20.9 18.5 16.765 to 69 years 13.4 14.6 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.5 20.2 20.5 20.5 18.170 to 74 years 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.6 17.4 19.0 19.4 19.575 to 79 years 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.0 12.1 15.6 17.1 17.780 to 84 years 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 7.3 9.9 12.8 14.385 to 89 years 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.3 5.1 7.1 9.390 to 94 years 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.9 4.195 to 99 years 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1100 years and over 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Total 259.4 259.4 259.4 259.3 259.2 259.1 259.0 258.4 257.2 254.8 251.3

Both sexes0 to 4 years 23.1 22.8 22.2 21.6 20.9 20.5 20.1 19.3 18.3 17.2 16.55 to 9 years 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.5 21.1 20.4 19.5 18.510 to 14 years 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.9 24.4 22.1 21.5 20.715 to 19 years 30.5 29.4 28.6 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.7 24.9 24.6 22.5 22.020 to 24 years 31.5 31.7 31.5 30.8 29.9 28.7 27.8 25.4 23.9 23.9 22.225 to 29 years 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.0 27.0 24.7 23.6 23.830 to 34 years 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 30.5 27.8 25.5 24.635 to 39 years 33.2 32.3 31.5 31.0 30.7 30.5 30.3 30.3 31.3 28.9 26.540 to 44 years 38.3 37.2 36.3 35.3 34.3 33.4 32.6 30.8 31.0 32.0 29.845 to 49 years 42.8 42.2 41.5 40.6 39.3 38.0 37.0 32.6 31.0 31.4 32.450 to 54 years 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.3 42.2 41.7 36.5 32.4 30.9 31.555 to 59 years 41.3 41.4 41.6 41.6 41.4 41.3 41.5 41.0 36.0 32.1 30.960 to 64 years 37.2 37.9 38.5 39.0 39.7 40.1 40.3 40.7 40.4 35.6 31.965 to 69 years 26.3 28.4 30.5 32.2 33.8 35.2 36.0 38.5 39.1 39.1 34.670 to 74 years 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.7 22.8 24.1 26.0 33.2 35.8 36.7 36.975 to 79 years 14.2 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 22.4 28.8 31.4 32.680 to 84 years 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 12.9 17.4 22.6 25.185 to 89 years 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.9 8.4 11.6 15.290 to 94 years 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.4 4.3 6.095 to 99 years 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4100 years and over 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2Total 508.7 508.4 508.0 507.4 506.8 506.2 505.6 502.4 498.1 491.7 483.4





Table 10-3Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Prince Edward Island, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 10-4Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Nova Scotia, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 10-5Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — New Brunswick, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 10-6Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Quebec, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 219.6 223.5 223.8 221.6 217.0 213.5 210.8 207.8 203.4 195.6 191.85 to 9 years 198.1 200.5 205.7 212.3 219.5 225.4 228.9 216.3 213.6 209.5 201.910 to 14 years 214.8 209.4 205.2 203.1 202.9 202.8 204.9 232.5 220.3 217.9 213.915 to 19 years 255.6 249.9 243.7 235.9 228.2 221.9 216.4 211.8 239.1 227.2 224.920 to 24 years 253.2 259.5 267.8 273.7 275.1 271.9 266.3 233.1 228.8 255.4 243.925 to 29 years 271.2 267.6 262.7 259.6 259.5 262.5 267.7 271.3 239.1 235.2 260.830 to 34 years 277.9 283.6 286.3 286.2 285.3 282.4 278.0 276.4 279.7 248.8 245.335 to 39 years 260.7 264.0 270.3 276.3 282.0 287.0 291.8 285.3 284.2 287.5 257.740 to 44 years 276.1 269.8 265.6 263.9 263.3 264.8 267.4 293.1 287.4 286.8 290.145 to 49 years 328.1 321.8 312.0 298.9 285.7 274.9 268.4 265.2 290.4 285.5 285.250 to 54 years 314.3 318.9 320.5 322.4 324.0 323.4 317.1 264.7 261.8 286.6 282.355 to 59 years 276.2 282.3 290.6 298.0 302.9 306.5 311.0 309.7 259.2 256.7 281.460 to 64 years 237.6 243.3 246.5 251.4 257.6 265.2 271.2 299.6 299.2 251.4 249.665 to 69 years 185.3 193.1 202.4 209.7 216.6 222.2 227.7 255.1 283.1 284.1 239.770 to 74 years 128.7 134.8 142.1 150.1 157.9 166.1 173.3 206.0 232.5 259.7 262.275 to 79 years 100.6 101.4 101.2 102.3 105.2 108.5 114.0 148.0 177.7 202.6 228.280 to 84 years 66.9 69.0 71.7 73.5 74.6 75.5 76.3 87.3 115.0 139.7 161.485 to 89 years 33.6 35.4 36.8 38.5 39.9 41.5 42.9 48.1 56.4 75.3 92.790 to 94 years 10.0 10.9 12.1 13.0 14.0 15.0 15.9 19.6 22.2 26.8 36.395 to 99 years 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.5100 years and over 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7Total 3,910.9 3,941.1 3,969.4 3,992.6 4,013.7 4,033.9 4,053.2 4,135.6 4,198.8 4,238.7 4,257.7

Females0 to 4 years 209.0 212.5 213.0 211.3 207.3 203.9 201.3 198.4 194.3 186.8 183.25 to 9 years 187.9 191.0 195.9 201.9 208.7 214.7 217.9 206.8 204.2 200.3 193.010 to 14 years 204.3 198.1 194.5 192.5 192.4 192.4 195.2 221.4 210.6 208.2 204.515 to 19 years 244.2 239.2 232.6 225.3 218.0 211.4 205.1 202.1 227.9 217.4 215.220 to 24 years 242.7 248.6 255.5 260.4 261.4 258.8 253.8 220.1 217.2 242.4 232.225 to 29 years 259.9 256.7 253.2 250.7 250.5 253.3 258.1 260.8 228.0 225.4 249.930 to 34 years 266.9 273.5 275.8 276.0 275.0 272.5 268.5 268.5 271.1 239.6 237.235 to 39 years 246.7 249.3 256.4 263.3 269.8 275.4 281.2 275.6 275.9 278.7 248.040 to 44 years 264.5 258.3 253.8 250.8 249.7 251.0 253.1 283.4 278.4 279.0 281.845 to 49 years 319.5 310.9 300.8 287.8 275.6 264.4 258.2 252.6 282.4 277.8 278.750 to 54 years 317.1 320.4 320.3 320.4 319.1 316.3 307.8 255.8 250.4 279.9 275.855 to 59 years 285.6 291.4 298.8 305.3 309.2 311.7 315.0 302.9 252.3 247.2 276.360 to 64 years 250.5 256.2 259.6 264.5 270.7 278.2 283.9 307.2 296.0 247.2 242.665 to 69 years 199.6 209.0 219.0 226.8 234.1 240.1 245.6 272.7 295.7 285.7 239.370 to 74 years 146.8 152.2 159.6 168.2 177.1 186.4 195.2 230.4 256.7 279.3 270.975 to 79 years 127.8 127.3 126.4 126.8 128.9 131.9 136.9 176.5 209.4 234.7 256.780 to 84 years 101.9 103.5 105.2 106.0 106.1 106.1 105.9 115.2 149.9 179.2 202.785 to 89 years 66.7 68.9 70.3 71.7 72.8 74.0 75.3 78.0 86.3 113.6 137.390 to 94 years 28.5 30.4 32.5 34.6 36.6 38.4 39.8 44.2 46.4 52.5 70.395 to 99 years 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.6 11.4 15.1 17.1 18.3 21.4100 years and over 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.5Total 3,979.6 4,007.5 4,033.8 4,055.0 4,074.4 4,093.0 4,110.9 4,189.7 4,253.0 4,296.3 4,320.6

Both sexes0 to 4 years 428.6 436.0 436.8 432.9 424.2 417.3 412.1 406.2 397.6 382.4 375.15 to 9 years 386.0 391.4 401.7 414.2 428.2 440.1 446.8 423.1 417.9 409.8 395.010 to 14 years 419.2 407.5 399.7 395.6 395.3 395.2 400.1 453.9 430.9 426.1 418.415 to 19 years 499.8 489.1 476.3 461.2 446.2 433.3 421.6 414.0 467.0 444.6 440.220 to 24 years 495.9 508.1 523.2 534.1 536.4 530.7 520.1 453.2 446.0 497.7 476.225 to 29 years 531.1 524.3 516.0 510.3 510.0 515.8 525.8 532.0 467.1 460.6 510.730 to 34 years 544.8 557.2 562.2 562.1 560.3 554.9 546.6 544.8 550.8 488.4 482.535 to 39 years 507.3 513.4 526.7 539.6 551.8 562.5 573.0 560.9 560.1 566.2 505.740 to 44 years 540.6 528.1 519.4 514.6 513.1 515.8 520.5 576.5 565.8 565.8 572.045 to 49 years 647.6 632.7 612.8 586.7 561.3 539.3 526.6 517.8 572.8 563.3 563.950 to 54 years 631.3 639.3 640.7 642.8 643.1 639.7 624.8 520.5 512.2 566.5 558.155 to 59 years 561.8 573.7 589.4 603.2 612.0 618.1 626.0 612.5 511.5 504.0 557.660 to 64 years 488.1 499.5 506.1 515.8 528.3 543.4 555.1 606.8 595.2 498.5 492.265 to 69 years 385.0 402.0 421.5 436.5 450.6 462.3 473.3 527.8 578.9 569.7 479.170 to 74 years 275.6 287.0 301.7 318.2 334.9 352.6 368.6 436.4 489.3 539.1 533.075 to 79 years 228.4 228.7 227.5 229.1 234.1 240.4 250.8 324.6 387.1 437.3 484.980 to 84 years 168.8 172.5 176.9 179.5 180.7 181.6 182.2 202.6 264.8 318.8 364.185 to 89 years 100.3 104.3 107.2 110.2 112.7 115.5 118.2 126.2 142.6 188.9 230.090 to 94 years 38.5 41.3 44.6 47.6 50.6 53.5 55.7 63.8 68.7 79.3 106.695 to 99 years 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.3 14.3 19.4 22.4 24.4 28.9100 years and over 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.4 3.3 3.8 4.2Total 7,890.4 7,948.6 8,003.2 8,047.6 8,088.1 8,126.9 8,164.0 8,325.3 8,451.8 8,535.0 8,578.4





Table 10-7Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Ontario, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 708.0 708.8 710.6 708.9 705.2 704.9 706.4 731.5 742.9 734.2 725.05 to 9 years 722.4 729.6 735.2 740.9 744.6 746.7 747.0 744.0 769.6 781.6 773.810 to 14 years 774.9 762.6 756.3 752.9 755.3 756.9 763.1 781.4 779.1 805.3 817.915 to 19 years 882.0 875.1 864.9 852.1 839.1 825.8 812.8 812.2 833.1 831.7 858.520 to 24 years 928.8 946.1 958.7 967.9 967.7 962.6 954.3 888.5 888.7 913.4 912.625 to 29 years 913.0 931.3 949.3 960.2 974.8 990.0 1,003.1 1,000.2 935.3 937.3 966.730 to 34 years 879.0 895.0 914.0 934.1 952.2 969.8 983.2 1,043.4 1,041.3 979.5 983.635 to 39 years 917.7 913.9 914.1 915.7 923.1 930.6 943.2 1,022.8 1,082.4 1,082.2 1,023.040 to 44 years 977.8 969.9 966.4 961.2 953.7 948.3 942.2 967.3 1,046.3 1,106.1 1,107.245 to 49 years 1,109.0 1,100.7 1,079.9 1,047.4 1,015.5 991.7 982.1 951.7 978.5 1,057.4 1,117.250 to 54 years 994.7 1,023.3 1,046.5 1,073.7 1,097.2 1,106.8 1,097.2 978.9 950.6 979.1 1,057.855 to 59 years 851.4 878.3 908.8 935.6 959.1 982.9 1,010.1 1,081.2 967.0 941.3 971.460 to 64 years 737.0 764.4 769.7 784.0 806.8 834.1 860.0 988.4 1,058.7 950.1 927.465 to 69 years 545.3 569.3 613.4 648.4 678.4 709.0 735.1 828.9 954.2 1,023.8 922.570 to 74 years 424.6 436.0 451.6 471.0 490.7 509.8 532.2 688.6 780.3 901.0 969.675 to 79 years 351.7 353.3 355.8 360.2 368.2 376.1 386.8 475.3 618.1 705.6 819.280 to 84 years 267.6 272.6 276.8 280.0 282.0 283.9 285.9 316.6 393.0 515.1 594.485 to 89 years 167.0 171.9 175.7 179.4 181.8 185.1 189.0 200.6 225.5 283.5 375.390 to 94 years 61.1 67.6 73.8 79.8 85.3 89.2 92.0 102.3 110.0 125.9 160.995 to 99 years 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.8 20.9 23.3 31.6 35.5 38.8 45.4100 years and over 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.8 5.1 5.8 6.5Total 13,231.3 13,388.6 13,541.1 13,673.5 13,801.7 13,927.8 14,051.5 14,639.1 15,195.2 15,698.7 16,135.9





Table 10-8Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Manitoba, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 10-9Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 10-10Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Alberta, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 10-11Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — British Columbia, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 10-12Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Yukon, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 10-13Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Northwest Territories, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 10-14Population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st — Nunavut, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-1Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Canada, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 966.8 988.3 1,008.0 1,025.3 1,041.6 1,053.7 1,065.2 1,107.8 1,120.1 1,114.5 1,127.75 to 9 years 928.6 938.6 953.0 971.7 989.6 1,013.5 1,035.7 1,115.1 1,160.4 1,175.4 1,172.410 to 14 years 994.9 979.9 970.3 968.3 972.3 975.7 986.2 1,085.0 1,166.7 1,214.6 1,232.315 to 19 years 1,141.8 1,126.9 1,111.4 1,092.8 1,075.3 1,059.3 1,045.2 1,053.0 1,153.9 1,238.1 1,288.520 to 24 years 1,211.6 1,228.8 1,242.9 1,253.0 1,250.3 1,239.8 1,225.7 1,143.3 1,153.3 1,256.6 1,343.325 to 29 years 1,206.8 1,222.1 1,233.0 1,241.7 1,256.0 1,272.3 1,286.9 1,273.8 1,194.0 1,207.7 1,314.130 to 34 years 1,152.5 1,176.1 1,199.2 1,224.1 1,246.7 1,265.4 1,278.6 1,336.1 1,326.9 1,253.2 1,271.835 to 39 years 1,158.1 1,157.5 1,165.2 1,177.1 1,194.9 1,214.4 1,237.0 1,335.6 1,396.6 1,392.8 1,324.940 to 44 years 1,223.8 1,213.2 1,208.4 1,205.1 1,199.3 1,196.1 1,194.9 1,271.6 1,372.3 1,436.8 1,437.245 to 49 years 1,406.6 1,387.5 1,354.7 1,309.6 1,268.4 1,240.3 1,229.6 1,210.8 1,289.4 1,392.4 1,459.650 to 54 years 1,307.7 1,334.9 1,354.5 1,378.3 1,398.0 1,401.7 1,383.0 1,228.5 1,213.0 1,293.9 1,398.555 to 59 years 1,128.8 1,162.3 1,200.0 1,234.6 1,261.3 1,285.9 1,312.9 1,362.4 1,215.1 1,203.5 1,286.360 to 64 years 965.0 999.0 1,010.1 1,030.3 1,060.6 1,095.8 1,129.0 1,279.4 1,332.8 1,194.4 1,187.365 to 69 years 712.8 744.8 797.7 840.6 877.8 915.8 949.0 1,079.4 1,230.1 1,288.2 1,161.370 to 74 years 520.4 539.6 563.6 592.5 622.6 652.2 682.9 877.7 1,007.7 1,157.1 1,220.375 to 79 years 412.0 415.0 417.5 423.8 434.6 447.3 465.5 597.5 777.4 903.9 1,048.980 to 84 years 283.7 292.7 301.5 307.9 312.5 316.3 320.1 367.2 480.2 634.5 750.685 to 89 years 150.8 157.0 162.5 168.9 174.6 181.0 187.8 210.0 247.3 330.4 444.490 to 94 years 48.1 53.1 58.2 62.8 67.3 71.0 74.3 91.2 104.1 126.2 172.495 to 99 years 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.3 13.8 15.4 21.7 27.2 31.5 39.4100 years and over 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.3Total 16,932.1 17,129.2 17,323.9 17,521.2 17,717.4 17,912.5 18,106.1 19,049.1 19,971.4 20,849.4 21,685.3

Females0 to 4 years 918.9 941.4 960.8 978.3 994.5 1,006.0 1,016.9 1,057.5 1,069.2 1,063.8 1,076.55 to 9 years 875.2 885.2 900.4 919.0 937.5 962.6 985.7 1,063.6 1,106.6 1,120.8 1,117.910 to 14 years 945.1 926.8 916.8 912.8 914.9 917.0 927.4 1,029.2 1,109.2 1,154.6 1,171.215 to 19 years 1,089.6 1,076.4 1,057.5 1,038.5 1,020.4 1,003.6 986.0 988.0 1,091.7 1,173.8 1,221.420 to 24 years 1,148.6 1,167.8 1,184.9 1,198.1 1,199.0 1,190.8 1,178.4 1,088.0 1,092.7 1,199.3 1,284.325 to 29 years 1,178.8 1,189.7 1,197.6 1,204.6 1,217.0 1,234.7 1,252.1 1,256.1 1,170.2 1,180.3 1,291.530 to 34 years 1,151.0 1,175.7 1,198.5 1,221.0 1,240.8 1,255.6 1,265.2 1,323.8 1,332.7 1,253.7 1,269.735 to 39 years 1,144.4 1,146.4 1,158.3 1,174.1 1,194.1 1,214.2 1,238.3 1,326.3 1,388.6 1,402.7 1,329.340 to 44 years 1,203.8 1,194.7 1,190.1 1,186.8 1,183.9 1,185.6 1,187.3 1,278.3 1,368.9 1,434.7 1,452.445 to 49 years 1,388.7 1,367.1 1,334.0 1,292.1 1,252.7 1,223.6 1,214.6 1,207.5 1,300.3 1,393.1 1,461.350 to 54 years 1,313.6 1,337.3 1,353.8 1,373.5 1,389.0 1,390.3 1,369.2 1,219.4 1,214.8 1,309.2 1,403.455 to 59 years 1,160.4 1,194.1 1,230.6 1,261.1 1,283.7 1,304.7 1,328.4 1,361.6 1,216.7 1,214.6 1,310.160 to 64 years 1,003.9 1,040.1 1,052.6 1,075.4 1,108.2 1,144.7 1,178.1 1,312.3 1,347.9 1,208.8 1,209.465 to 69 years 757.0 790.7 846.8 893.0 934.2 975.4 1,010.8 1,148.0 1,281.7 1,320.1 1,188.670 to 74 years 585.5 604.2 627.6 656.7 687.2 717.7 750.3 962.4 1,097.8 1,230.4 1,272.075 to 79 years 500.5 502.2 504.2 509.8 520.7 532.5 550.5 688.6 888.6 1,020.7 1,150.680 to 84 years 404.1 409.0 414.0 417.9 419.8 422.1 424.6 471.9 597.1 777.6 902.785 to 89 years 278.1 284.0 287.6 291.3 293.9 297.9 302.9 319.9 362.3 465.8 614.490 to 94 years 119.1 128.8 138.7 147.6 155.6 161.4 165.4 180.8 195.2 226.9 297.995 to 99 years 35.0 36.6 38.1 39.5 41.3 44.9 49.1 64.0 72.0 79.7 96.0100 years and over 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.5 9.1 12.0 14.0 16.0Total 17,206.0 17,403.0 17,598.0 17,796.4 17,994.2 18,191.4 18,387.8 19,356.4 20,316.3 21,244.5 22,136.4

Both sexes0 to 4 years 1,885.6 1,929.7 1,968.8 2,003.6 2,036.1 2,059.7 2,082.1 2,165.3 2,189.3 2,178.3 2,204.25 to 9 years 1,803.8 1,823.8 1,853.4 1,890.6 1,927.0 1,976.1 2,021.4 2,178.8 2,267.0 2,296.1 2,290.310 to 14 years 1,940.1 1,906.8 1,887.1 1,881.1 1,887.2 1,892.6 1,913.6 2,114.2 2,276.0 2,369.2 2,403.415 to 19 years 2,231.4 2,203.4 2,168.9 2,131.3 2,095.7 2,062.9 2,031.2 2,041.0 2,245.6 2,411.9 2,509.920 to 24 years 2,360.3 2,396.5 2,427.9 2,451.2 2,449.3 2,430.5 2,404.1 2,231.4 2,246.0 2,455.9 2,627.625 to 29 years 2,385.6 2,411.7 2,430.5 2,446.3 2,473.0 2,507.0 2,539.0 2,529.8 2,364.2 2,388.1 2,605.630 to 34 years 2,303.5 2,351.8 2,397.7 2,445.1 2,487.5 2,521.0 2,543.8 2,659.8 2,659.6 2,506.9 2,541.535 to 39 years 2,302.6 2,303.9 2,323.6 2,351.2 2,389.0 2,428.6 2,475.3 2,661.9 2,785.2 2,795.4 2,654.240 to 44 years 2,427.5 2,407.9 2,398.5 2,391.9 2,383.2 2,381.6 2,382.2 2,549.9 2,741.2 2,871.5 2,889.645 to 49 years 2,795.3 2,754.7 2,688.8 2,601.7 2,521.1 2,463.9 2,444.1 2,418.2 2,589.8 2,785.5 2,920.950 to 54 years 2,621.3 2,672.3 2,708.3 2,751.9 2,787.0 2,792.1 2,752.1 2,447.9 2,427.8 2,603.1 2,801.955 to 59 years 2,289.3 2,356.4 2,430.6 2,495.7 2,545.0 2,590.6 2,641.3 2,724.1 2,431.8 2,418.1 2,596.560 to 64 years 1,968.9 2,039.1 2,062.7 2,105.7 2,168.8 2,240.5 2,307.2 2,591.7 2,680.8 2,403.2 2,396.765 to 69 years 1,469.8 1,535.5 1,644.4 1,733.6 1,812.0 1,891.1 1,959.8 2,227.4 2,511.8 2,608.3 2,349.970 to 74 years 1,105.8 1,143.8 1,191.2 1,249.2 1,309.8 1,369.9 1,433.1 1,840.1 2,105.5 2,387.5 2,492.375 to 79 years 912.5 917.2 921.7 933.5 955.3 979.8 1,016.0 1,286.2 1,666.0 1,924.7 2,199.580 to 84 years 687.8 701.8 715.5 725.7 732.3 738.3 744.7 839.2 1,077.3 1,412.1 1,653.385 to 89 years 428.9 441.0 450.1 460.2 468.6 479.0 490.7 529.9 609.6 796.1 1,058.890 to 94 years 167.2 182.0 196.9 210.4 222.9 232.4 239.8 272.0 299.3 353.1 470.395 to 99 years 45.2 47.3 49.3 51.1 53.7 58.7 64.4 85.6 99.2 111.3 135.3100 years and over 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.5 7.8 11.1 14.8 17.6 20.2Total 34,138.2 34,532.2 34,921.9 35,317.5 35,711.7 36,103.9 36,493.8 38,405.5 40,287.7 42,093.9 43,821.7





Table 11-2Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-3Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st — PrinceEdward Island, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-4Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st — NovaScotia, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 44.6 45.2 45.5 45.8 46.2 46.4 46.7 47.4 46.5 44.7 43.85 to 9 years 44.5 44.3 44.6 45.2 45.7 46.4 47.0 48.8 49.7 49.1 47.410 to 14 years 50.8 49.3 48.3 47.4 46.8 46.0 45.9 48.8 50.8 51.9 51.415 to 19 years 60.0 58.7 57.3 55.9 54.6 53.6 52.3 49.1 52.2 54.4 55.620 to 24 years 63.8 65.1 65.7 65.6 64.8 63.5 62.3 56.1 53.4 56.7 59.225 to 29 years 56.8 57.9 59.3 60.5 61.8 63.0 64.1 61.0 55.3 53.2 56.830 to 34 years 55.1 55.2 55.7 56.6 57.6 58.5 59.4 64.8 62.2 56.8 55.335 to 39 years 60.4 59.2 58.0 57.2 57.0 57.2 57.5 61.6 66.8 64.5 59.340 to 44 years 64.5 63.7 63.3 62.9 62.1 61.3 60.1 58.8 63.1 68.3 66.245 to 49 years 79.5 77.4 74.3 70.8 67.4 64.9 64.1 60.7 59.8 64.2 69.350 to 54 years 77.1 78.1 78.9 79.4 79.9 79.5 77.3 64.5 61.3 60.6 65.155 to 59 years 69.9 71.5 73.4 75.2 76.1 76.8 77.9 77.4 64.9 61.9 61.660 to 64 years 64.2 66.0 65.7 65.9 67.2 68.9 70.5 77.1 77.0 65.0 62.365 to 69 years 47.6 49.9 53.7 56.9 59.4 61.7 63.5 68.4 75.3 75.6 64.370 to 74 years 35.4 36.7 38.3 40.2 42.0 44.0 46.2 59.3 64.5 71.5 72.375 to 79 years 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.2 30.1 30.8 32.1 40.9 53.1 58.5 65.580 to 84 years 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.6 22.1 22.4 25.9 33.6 44.2 49.685 to 89 years 13.0 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 15.4 18.2 24.1 32.190 to 94 years 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.2 8.2 10.0 13.595 to 99 years 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.6100 years and over 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5Total 943.0 947.9 952.7 957.5 962.3 967.1 972.0 995.8 1,018.7 1,038.4 1,054.6





Table 11-5Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st — NewBrunswick, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-6Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Quebec, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-7Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Ontario, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 717.3 729.6 745.0 760.6 776.8 788.1 799.5 849.5 876.4 881.1 890.65 to 9 years 722.8 730.5 736.4 743.9 749.5 762.1 775.3 847.0 898.6 927.2 934.210 to 14 years 775.3 763.5 757.5 756.0 760.2 763.7 771.8 819.7 893.3 946.8 977.215 to 19 years 882.4 875.9 866.2 855.2 844.0 832.6 821.4 831.2 882.7 958.4 1,013.720 to 24 years 929.4 947.2 960.3 971.8 973.8 970.9 964.6 909.4 921.2 978.0 1,055.925 to 29 years 913.8 932.9 951.7 965.8 983.6 1,001.9 1,017.9 1,028.1 975.6 991.4 1,054.930 to 34 years 879.9 896.8 916.7 940.5 962.3 983.8 1,001.0 1,079.3 1,092.6 1,045.8 1,066.535 to 39 years 918.4 915.3 916.3 920.9 931.6 942.6 958.9 1,059.1 1,138.9 1,156.3 1,114.540 to 44 years 978.3 970.9 968.1 965.1 960.0 957.2 953.9 996.8 1,097.9 1,179.4 1,199.845 to 49 years 1,109.4 1,101.5 1,081.1 1,050.3 1,020.1 998.2 990.7 973.6 1,019.2 1,121.5 1,204.250 to 54 years 995.0 1,023.9 1,047.5 1,075.8 1,100.6 1,111.6 1,103.6 994.9 980.8 1,029.0 1,131.955 to 59 years 851.6 878.8 909.6 937.3 961.7 986.6 1,014.9 1,093.4 989.6 978.6 1,028.960 to 64 years 737.2 765.0 770.6 785.6 809.3 837.5 864.4 998.9 1,077.8 979.8 972.265 to 69 years 545.6 569.8 614.3 650.0 680.8 712.3 739.4 839.0 972.1 1,051.5 960.970 to 74 years 424.8 436.5 452.4 472.5 492.8 512.7 536.1 698.6 797.8 928.3 1,008.275 to 79 years 352.0 353.8 356.6 361.6 370.1 378.7 390.1 483.9 635.4 732.4 858.180 to 84 years 267.8 273.1 277.6 281.3 283.9 286.3 288.9 323.8 407.3 540.7 631.685 to 89 years 167.1 172.3 176.4 180.4 183.2 187.0 191.5 206.3 235.9 302.0 406.490 to 94 years 61.1 67.8 74.2 80.3 86.1 90.3 93.4 105.8 116.3 136.3 178.295 to 99 years 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.0 21.2 23.8 32.9 38.0 42.7 51.6100 years and over 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 4.0 5.5 6.5 7.5Total 13,247.8 13,424.1 13,598.2 13,775.2 13,951.9 14,128.1 14,303.8 15,175.1 16,052.8 16,913.7 17,746.8





Table 11-8Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Manitoba, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-9Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-10Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Alberta, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-11Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st — BritishColumbia, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-12Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Yukon, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-13Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Northwest Territories, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 11-14Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario (M1), July 1st —Nunavut, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-1Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — Canada, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-2Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — Newfoundlandand Labrador, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-3Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — Prince EdwardIsland, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-4Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — NovaScotia, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-5Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — NewBrunswick, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-6Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — Quebec, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-7Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — Ontario, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 716.3 727.4 741.7 756.0 770.8 780.7 790.6 833.4 854.4 854.8 859.85 to 9 years 721.6 727.9 732.6 738.8 743.0 754.4 766.3 830.9 875.3 897.9 900.510 to 14 years 774.5 761.7 754.8 752.1 755.1 757.3 764.1 804.8 870.9 916.9 941.315 to 19 years 881.5 874.2 863.7 851.9 840.0 827.7 815.7 819.5 863.2 931.2 978.920 to 24 years 926.4 941.6 952.6 962.6 963.5 959.9 953.0 894.7 900.8 948.5 1,018.225 to 29 years 911.8 928.5 944.5 955.6 970.3 985.6 999.0 1,003.7 948.9 958.8 1,011.930 to 34 years 877.7 892.4 910.5 932.4 952.3 971.6 986.4 1,050.3 1,058.2 1,009.1 1,023.635 to 39 years 916.5 911.4 910.2 912.6 920.8 929.6 943.7 1,032.6 1,097.8 1,109.6 1,065.740 to 44 years 977.3 968.8 964.5 960.0 953.2 948.6 943.3 974.6 1,063.9 1,130.8 1,145.545 to 49 years 1,108.5 1,099.8 1,078.7 1,047.1 1,016.2 993.5 984.8 959.3 993.3 1,083.7 1,152.050 to 54 years 994.5 1,022.8 1,045.8 1,073.2 1,097.1 1,107.3 1,098.6 986.0 963.7 1,000.3 1,091.555 to 59 years 850.9 877.3 907.6 934.7 958.6 982.9 1,010.6 1,085.0 977.8 958.8 997.760 to 64 years 736.8 764.0 769.0 783.2 806.1 833.5 859.6 990.8 1,065.6 964.8 949.565 to 69 years 545.1 568.8 612.8 648.1 678.4 709.4 735.9 831.5 961.1 1,036.6 943.470 to 74 years 424.7 436.2 451.7 471.4 491.3 510.6 533.4 693.3 788.4 915.4 991.675 to 79 years 351.9 353.6 356.4 361.3 369.8 378.2 389.4 480.9 630.0 723.2 845.780 to 84 years 267.8 273.0 277.4 281.0 283.5 285.9 288.4 322.7 404.2 535.5 623.185 to 89 years 167.1 172.2 176.3 180.2 183.0 186.7 191.1 205.6 234.8 299.3 402.090 to 94 years 61.1 67.7 74.1 80.2 85.9 90.1 93.2 105.4 115.7 135.5 176.395 to 99 years 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.0 21.1 23.7 32.7 37.8 42.4 51.1100 years and over 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 4.0 5.5 6.5 7.4Total 13,230.0 13,388.4 13,544.4 13,702.7 13,860.4 14,017.3 14,173.3 14,941.9 15,711.2 16,459.5 17,176.7





Table 12-8Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — Manitoba, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-9Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st —Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-10Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — Alberta, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-11Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — BritishColumbia, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-12Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — Yukon, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-13Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — NorthwestTerritories, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 12-14Population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2), July 1st — Nunavut, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands









2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands









2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 44.7 45.2 45.6 45.8 46.2 46.5 46.8 47.7 47.1 45.4 44.75 to 9 years 44.6 44.5 44.9 45.6 46.1 46.9 47.5 49.4 50.5 50.1 48.610 to 14 years 50.8 49.4 48.4 47.6 47.1 46.4 46.4 49.5 51.7 53.0 52.715 to 19 years 60.1 58.8 57.4 56.0 54.7 53.8 52.5 49.7 53.0 55.4 56.820 to 24 years 63.9 65.2 65.8 65.8 65.0 63.8 62.6 56.5 54.2 57.7 60.425 to 29 years 56.9 58.2 59.7 61.0 62.4 63.7 64.8 62.0 56.3 54.6 58.430 to 34 years 55.2 55.4 56.0 56.9 58.1 59.1 60.2 66.1 63.7 58.3 57.035 to 39 years 60.5 59.3 58.2 57.4 57.3 57.6 57.8 62.6 68.4 66.3 61.140 to 44 years 64.5 63.8 63.3 63.0 62.3 61.5 60.4 59.4 64.2 70.0 68.145 to 49 years 79.6 77.5 74.5 71.0 67.6 65.1 64.4 61.2 60.5 65.4 71.150 to 54 years 77.1 78.1 78.9 79.5 80.1 79.7 77.7 64.9 61.8 61.4 66.555 to 59 years 69.9 71.5 73.4 75.2 76.1 76.9 77.9 77.7 65.3 62.5 62.360 to 64 years 64.3 66.1 65.9 66.1 67.5 69.2 70.9 77.6 77.7 65.7 63.265 to 69 years 47.7 49.9 53.8 57.1 59.6 62.1 63.9 69.0 76.0 76.6 65.270 to 74 years 35.4 36.8 38.4 40.3 42.2 44.3 46.4 59.9 65.4 72.5 73.675 to 79 years 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.3 30.3 31.0 32.3 41.3 53.9 59.6 66.880 to 84 years 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.5 26.2 34.1 45.1 50.785 to 89 years 13.0 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 15.5 18.4 24.5 32.890 to 94 years 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.2 8.3 10.1 13.795 to 99 years 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.6100 years and over 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5Total 943.8 949.5 955.1 960.8 966.4 972.1 977.8 1,006.0 1,033.4 1,057.4 1,077.8






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands









2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 716.3 727.6 742.0 756.4 771.4 781.4 791.5 835.4 857.1 857.3 862.25 to 9 years 721.7 728.2 733.1 739.4 743.9 755.5 767.5 832.7 878.0 901.1 903.510 to 14 years 774.4 761.6 754.6 752.0 755.1 757.5 764.4 806.4 873.0 919.7 944.415 to 19 years 881.5 874.2 863.7 851.8 839.8 827.5 815.4 819.6 864.9 933.1 981.320 to 24 years 927.8 944.1 956.0 966.4 967.5 963.8 956.7 897.5 903.8 954.1 1,024.125 to 29 years 911.8 929.0 945.8 958.1 974.2 990.9 1,005.4 1,010.8 954.7 964.8 1,021.430 to 34 years 878.3 893.5 911.7 933.6 953.4 972.8 988.1 1,057.7 1,066.0 1,015.8 1,030.535 to 39 years 916.7 911.8 911.1 914.0 922.9 932.3 946.8 1,036.6 1,107.4 1,119.6 1,074.440 to 44 years 977.1 968.4 964.1 959.5 952.8 948.3 943.3 977.2 1,067.4 1,139.5 1,154.645 to 49 years 1,108.2 1,099.1 1,077.7 1,045.7 1,014.5 991.5 982.7 957.7 994.1 1,085.1 1,158.350 to 54 years 994.4 1,022.5 1,045.3 1,072.6 1,096.3 1,106.2 1,097.1 983.2 961.3 1,000.2 1,091.755 to 59 years 851.1 877.6 907.9 934.9 958.8 982.9 1,010.4 1,083.7 975.0 956.5 997.560 to 64 years 736.7 763.9 769.0 783.5 806.6 834.2 860.3 991.1 1,064.7 962.3 947.365 to 69 years 545.4 569.3 613.5 648.9 679.1 710.1 736.7 833.0 962.2 1,036.4 941.570 to 74 years 424.5 436.1 451.7 471.5 491.7 511.3 534.4 694.3 790.1 916.7 991.475 to 79 years 351.9 353.6 356.2 361.0 369.3 377.6 388.8 481.2 630.1 723.8 845.680 to 84 years 267.8 272.9 277.4 281.0 283.5 285.8 288.3 322.2 404.5 535.4 623.485 to 89 years 167.1 172.3 176.4 180.4 183.1 186.9 191.3 205.7 234.7 299.7 402.390 to 94 years 61.2 67.8 74.2 80.4 86.2 90.4 93.5 105.8 116.1 135.7 177.095 to 99 years 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.0 21.2 23.8 32.9 38.0 42.7 51.3100 years and over 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 4.0 5.5 6.5 7.5Total 13,232.2 13,392.8 13,551.1 13,711.7 13,871.6 14,030.7 14,189.0 14,968.9 15,748.5 16,505.9 17,231.0






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands









2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 716.7 728.2 742.8 757.5 772.9 783.3 793.7 839.2 863.0 865.9 873.35 to 9 years 722.5 729.9 735.4 742.3 747.1 758.9 771.2 838.5 885.8 911.4 916.610 to 14 years 775.0 762.9 756.7 754.9 758.9 762.1 769.8 813.6 882.8 932.0 959.615 to 19 years 881.9 875.0 864.8 853.4 842.0 830.2 818.9 827.1 873.9 945.1 996.120 to 24 years 928.7 945.8 958.4 969.3 970.8 967.5 960.9 904.4 914.7 966.0 1,039.425 to 29 years 911.8 929.0 946.4 959.5 976.4 994.0 1,009.3 1,017.1 963.9 977.9 1,035.030 to 34 years 879.1 894.8 913.2 935.1 954.9 974.4 989.8 1,063.3 1,074.4 1,027.1 1,045.635 to 39 years 918.0 914.4 915.0 919.1 929.1 939.4 954.5 1,045.6 1,120.7 1,135.9 1,093.440 to 44 years 977.9 970.2 966.9 963.4 957.8 954.6 950.8 989.8 1,081.9 1,158.9 1,177.045 to 49 years 1,109.3 1,101.3 1,080.7 1,049.6 1,019.1 996.9 988.9 969.3 1,010.8 1,104.3 1,182.750 to 54 years 994.3 1,022.7 1,046.0 1,074.0 1,098.7 1,109.6 1,101.5 991.4 974.6 1,018.6 1,112.955 to 59 years 850.9 877.2 907.2 934.0 957.6 981.7 1,009.4 1,086.8 982.1 968.5 1,014.460 to 64 years 736.6 763.7 768.6 782.9 805.8 833.2 859.2 989.4 1,067.1 968.7 958.565 to 69 years 545.3 569.1 613.1 648.4 678.5 709.5 735.9 831.3 960.0 1,038.4 947.570 to 74 years 424.5 436.0 451.6 471.4 491.5 511.0 533.9 693.4 788.5 914.6 993.475 to 79 years 351.9 353.5 356.1 360.9 369.2 377.5 388.6 480.7 629.1 722.1 843.580 to 84 years 267.7 272.9 277.4 280.9 283.5 285.8 288.3 322.1 404.1 534.7 622.085 to 89 years 167.0 172.1 176.0 179.9 182.6 186.3 190.7 205.1 233.9 298.6 400.690 to 94 years 61.1 67.7 74.0 80.1 85.8 89.9 93.0 105.0 115.2 134.6 175.595 to 99 years 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.0 21.1 23.7 32.7 37.7 42.3 50.9100 years and over 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 4.0 5.5 6.5 7.4Total 13,238.5 13,405.4 13,570.0 13,737.2 13,903.6 14,069.4 14,234.4 15,049.7 15,869.6 16,672.0 17,445.3






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-1Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Canada, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 972.1 1,003.8 1,038.6 1,077.6 1,121.0 1,155.9 1,185.8 1,265.2 1,295.7 1,309.1 1,355.05 to 9 years 929.0 939.5 954.4 975.0 994.9 1,025.7 1,059.7 1,246.8 1,330.4 1,365.5 1,383.610 to 14 years 995.4 980.9 971.7 971.6 977.7 983.1 995.8 1,120.6 1,311.4 1,399.4 1,439.215 to 19 years 1,142.2 1,127.9 1,112.8 1,096.0 1,080.5 1,066.5 1,054.5 1,073.9 1,202.5 1,397.2 1,489.620 to 24 years 1,212.1 1,229.7 1,244.3 1,256.3 1,255.5 1,246.9 1,234.8 1,163.6 1,186.9 1,319.7 1,518.425 to 29 years 1,207.6 1,223.5 1,235.0 1,246.7 1,263.7 1,282.6 1,299.6 1,298.3 1,232.0 1,261.6 1,400.130 to 34 years 1,153.4 1,177.9 1,201.9 1,230.6 1,257.1 1,279.6 1,296.5 1,370.7 1,376.5 1,319.8 1,357.935 to 39 years 1,158.9 1,159.1 1,167.7 1,182.8 1,204.3 1,227.6 1,254.3 1,374.5 1,455.2 1,469.8 1,422.440 to 44 years 1,224.3 1,214.3 1,210.2 1,209.4 1,206.3 1,205.9 1,208.0 1,304.7 1,429.3 1,516.1 1,537.545 to 49 years 1,407.1 1,388.4 1,356.2 1,312.8 1,273.5 1,247.5 1,239.1 1,235.3 1,335.7 1,464.4 1,555.950 to 54 years 1,308.1 1,335.7 1,355.7 1,380.8 1,401.9 1,407.1 1,390.0 1,246.3 1,247.1 1,350.9 1,482.755 to 59 years 1,129.1 1,163.0 1,201.2 1,236.7 1,264.5 1,290.2 1,318.4 1,376.2 1,240.2 1,245.6 1,352.360 to 64 years 965.4 999.9 1,011.5 1,032.5 1,063.8 1,100.0 1,134.4 1,291.6 1,354.5 1,227.7 1,238.165 to 69 years 713.2 745.7 799.2 843.0 881.2 920.3 954.7 1,092.0 1,251.6 1,320.5 1,204.970 to 74 years 520.8 540.5 565.0 594.8 625.9 656.5 688.3 891.1 1,030.3 1,191.2 1,266.575 to 79 years 412.4 415.9 419.0 426.0 437.5 451.1 470.3 609.7 800.9 939.5 1,099.080 to 84 years 284.0 293.5 302.8 309.9 315.2 319.7 324.4 377.1 499.9 669.1 800.385 to 89 years 151.0 157.5 163.3 170.2 176.3 183.3 190.7 216.9 260.3 354.2 484.590 to 94 years 48.2 53.3 58.5 63.3 68.0 72.0 75.5 94.5 110.4 137.2 191.995 to 99 years 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.5 13.9 15.6 22.4 28.9 34.5 44.4100 years and over 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 3.0 4.0 4.8Total 16,945.5 17,161.8 17,381.2 17,628.8 17,882.3 18,136.7 18,391.7 19,673.5 20,983.0 22,297.0 23,629.0

Females0 to 4 years 923.9 956.1 990.0 1,028.2 1,070.2 1,103.5 1,132.2 1,207.8 1,236.9 1,249.8 1,293.55 to 9 years 875.6 886.0 901.6 922.0 942.4 974.0 1,008.3 1,189.1 1,268.7 1,302.0 1,319.110 to 14 years 945.6 927.7 918.1 915.8 919.8 923.7 936.1 1,062.4 1,246.5 1,330.0 1,367.615 to 19 years 1,090.0 1,077.2 1,058.8 1,041.5 1,025.1 1,010.1 994.4 1,007.0 1,136.6 1,324.1 1,411.620 to 24 years 1,149.3 1,169.0 1,186.7 1,202.5 1,205.8 1,199.8 1,189.6 1,110.1 1,127.4 1,262.2 1,454.625 to 29 years 1,179.8 1,191.6 1,200.5 1,211.6 1,228.1 1,249.7 1,270.7 1,290.1 1,218.5 1,244.9 1,388.230 to 34 years 1,152.0 1,177.6 1,201.5 1,228.2 1,252.4 1,271.8 1,286.2 1,368.0 1,396.2 1,335.6 1,372.435 to 39 years 1,145.2 1,147.9 1,160.7 1,179.8 1,203.3 1,227.3 1,255.5 1,368.2 1,456.9 1,493.5 1,442.240 to 44 years 1,204.3 1,195.8 1,191.8 1,190.9 1,190.5 1,195.0 1,199.8 1,310.7 1,428.2 1,522.8 1,565.845 to 49 years 1,389.1 1,367.9 1,335.2 1,294.8 1,257.2 1,230.1 1,223.3 1,230.6 1,345.0 1,466.4 1,565.250 to 54 years 1,313.8 1,337.9 1,354.7 1,375.5 1,392.1 1,394.8 1,375.1 1,235.3 1,246.1 1,363.3 1,487.355 to 59 years 1,160.7 1,194.6 1,231.3 1,262.7 1,286.2 1,308.2 1,333.0 1,373.2 1,239.0 1,253.2 1,372.460 to 64 years 1,004.1 1,040.5 1,053.3 1,076.9 1,110.4 1,147.8 1,182.2 1,322.2 1,366.0 1,238.2 1,255.865 to 69 years 757.2 791.2 847.5 894.4 936.3 978.2 1,014.5 1,157.1 1,298.2 1,345.9 1,225.770 to 74 years 585.6 604.6 628.3 657.9 689.0 720.2 753.6 971.2 1,113.9 1,255.6 1,307.375 to 79 years 500.7 502.6 504.9 510.9 522.4 534.8 553.5 696.6 904.7 1,046.3 1,186.980 to 84 years 404.3 409.5 414.9 419.2 421.6 424.5 427.7 479.3 611.9 804.1 940.785 to 89 years 278.3 284.5 288.4 292.5 295.7 300.2 305.8 326.8 374.9 488.2 651.390 to 94 years 119.2 129.1 139.2 148.4 156.8 163.0 167.6 186.0 204.6 242.3 323.695 to 99 years 35.0 36.7 38.3 39.7 41.7 45.5 49.9 66.4 76.6 87.2 107.5100 years and over 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.6 9.5 12.9 15.6 18.5Total 17,218.4 17,432.8 17,650.6 17,898.7 18,152.8 18,408.5 18,665.4 19,967.7 21,309.7 22,671.1 24,057.0






Table 15-2Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-3Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Prince Edward Island, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-4Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Nova Scotia, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 44.9 46.0 47.0 48.2 49.8 51.0 51.9 53.7 53.1 51.5 51.65 to 9 years 44.5 44.3 44.6 45.3 45.8 46.9 48.0 54.4 56.5 56.1 54.910 to 14 years 50.8 49.4 48.3 47.5 46.9 46.2 46.1 50.0 56.8 59.1 59.015 to 19 years 60.1 58.7 57.3 56.0 54.7 53.8 52.5 49.6 53.7 60.8 63.420 to 24 years 63.8 65.2 65.7 65.7 64.9 63.7 62.5 56.5 54.2 58.6 66.225 to 29 years 56.8 57.9 59.3 60.6 62.0 63.3 64.4 61.7 56.3 54.7 59.530 to 34 years 55.1 55.3 55.8 56.7 57.9 58.8 59.8 65.7 63.5 58.6 57.635 to 39 years 60.4 59.2 58.1 57.3 57.2 57.5 57.8 62.5 68.4 66.6 62.040 to 44 years 64.5 63.8 63.3 63.0 62.3 61.5 60.4 59.6 64.5 70.3 68.845 to 49 years 79.6 77.4 74.3 70.9 67.5 65.1 64.4 61.2 60.8 65.9 71.850 to 54 years 77.1 78.1 78.9 79.5 80.0 79.6 77.5 64.9 62.0 62.0 67.355 to 59 years 69.9 71.5 73.4 75.2 76.2 77.0 78.0 77.8 65.5 63.0 63.260 to 64 years 64.2 66.0 65.7 66.0 67.4 69.1 70.7 77.6 77.7 66.0 63.765 to 69 years 47.7 49.9 53.8 57.0 59.5 61.9 63.7 68.9 76.1 76.8 65.770 to 74 years 35.4 36.7 38.3 40.3 42.2 44.2 46.4 59.9 65.6 73.0 74.275 to 79 years 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.3 30.2 31.0 32.3 41.5 54.3 60.3 67.980 to 84 years 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.3 22.6 26.5 34.7 46.2 52.385 to 89 years 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.6 14.0 15.8 19.0 25.6 34.790 to 94 years 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.5 8.7 10.8 14.995 to 99 years 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.2 4.1100 years and over 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6Total 943.6 949.2 955.1 961.6 968.4 975.3 982.3 1,018.0 1,054.5 1,089.6 1,123.5





Table 15-5Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — New Brunswick, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-6Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Quebec, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-7Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Ontario, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands



Both sexes0 to 4 years 720.0 738.7 764.5 795.7 831.9 861.5 887.9 971.1 1,017.1 1,039.7 1,074.65 to 9 years 723.2 731.3 737.6 746.9 754.3 771.1 792.3 946.1 1,032.1 1,081.4 1,108.110 to 14 years 775.7 764.3 758.8 759.0 765.1 770.5 780.5 847.6 1,004.6 1,094.0 1,146.915 to 19 years 882.9 876.8 867.4 858.3 849.0 839.4 830.2 850.6 923.0 1,083.7 1,176.720 to 24 years 930.0 948.3 961.9 975.8 980.0 979.3 975.1 930.9 955.3 1,035.1 1,200.425 to 29 years 914.6 934.5 954.0 971.5 992.5 1,013.9 1,032.9 1,056.7 1,017.9 1,049.3 1,139.230 to 34 years 880.8 898.5 919.3 946.8 972.5 997.9 1,019.1 1,116.2 1,146.4 1,116.9 1,157.135 to 39 years 919.1 916.7 918.5 926.2 940.1 954.7 974.8 1,096.4 1,197.8 1,235.2 1,214.140 to 44 years 978.8 972.0 969.7 969.0 966.3 966.2 965.7 1,026.9 1,151.4 1,256.9 1,299.945 to 49 years 1,109.8 1,102.3 1,082.4 1,053.1 1,024.7 1,004.8 999.4 996.0 1,061.4 1,188.8 1,297.350 to 54 years 995.3 1,024.5 1,048.5 1,078.0 1,104.0 1,116.5 1,110.0 1,011.3 1,011.9 1,081.0 1,210.355 to 59 years 851.9 879.3 910.5 939.0 964.4 990.3 1,019.7 1,105.7 1,012.5 1,017.0 1,089.160 to 64 years 737.5 765.5 771.5 787.3 811.8 841.0 868.8 1,009.3 1,096.9 1,010.0 1,018.565 to 69 years 545.8 570.3 615.2 651.7 683.3 715.7 743.8 849.0 989.6 1,079.0 999.570 to 74 years 425.0 437.1 453.3 474.0 495.0 515.7 540.0 708.4 814.8 954.8 1,045.875 to 79 years 352.2 354.3 357.5 362.9 372.1 381.2 393.4 492.3 652.1 758.2 895.480 to 84 years 268.1 273.6 278.5 282.6 285.6 288.6 291.8 330.7 421.1 565.5 667.485 to 89 years 167.3 172.7 177.0 181.4 184.6 188.8 193.8 211.7 246.1 320.2 437.290 to 94 years 61.2 68.0 74.5 80.8 86.9 91.3 94.7 109.2 122.6 146.8 195.995 to 99 years 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.3 19.2 21.5 24.1 34.1 40.5 46.8 58.1100 years and over 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 4.2 5.9 7.3 8.7Total 13,257.5 13,447.9 13,640.4 13,860.5 14,085.8 14,312.6 14,540.9 15,704.5 16,921.2 18,167.9 19,440.0





Table 15-8Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Manitoba, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-9Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Saskatchewan, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-10Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Alberta, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-11Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — British Columbia, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-12Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Yukon, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-13Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Northwest Territories, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 15-14Population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st — Nunavut, 2010 to 2036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousands








Table 16Long term projections of population by age group and sex, low-growth scenario (L), July 1st, Canada, 2036 to 2061

2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 923.8 936.1 951.8 960.2 964.0 964.35 to 9 years 977.5 968.2 981.3 997.8 1,006.8 1,011.210 to 14 years 1,037.8 1,020.8 1,012.4 1,026.2 1,043.3 1,053.015 to 19 years 1,097.0 1,098.3 1,082.4 1,074.9 1,089.5 1,107.220 to 24 years 1,171.1 1,189.1 1,191.5 1,176.6 1,170.0 1,185.325 to 29 years 1,225.8 1,209.8 1,229.1 1,232.6 1,218.8 1,213.330 to 34 years 1,192.5 1,262.5 1,248.4 1,269.0 1,273.8 1,261.535 to 39 years 1,235.1 1,238.6 1,309.6 1,297.1 1,318.9 1,325.040 to 44 years 1,344.2 1,261.4 1,266.4 1,338.0 1,326.9 1,349.645 to 49 years 1,369.5 1,353.7 1,273.4 1,279.8 1,351.8 1,342.150 to 54 years 1,318.8 1,365.6 1,351.9 1,274.3 1,282.0 1,354.655 to 59 years 1,222.8 1,303.3 1,351.8 1,340.5 1,265.8 1,275.260 to 64 years 1,137.2 1,199.2 1,281.1 1,331.8 1,323.4 1,252.565 to 69 years 1,116.9 1,098.4 1,162.9 1,246.6 1,300.1 1,295.670 to 74 years 1,171.5 1,049.7 1,039.1 1,106.5 1,191.8 1,248.775 to 79 years 995.9 1,048.7 949.8 948.6 1,018.4 1,104.780 to 84 years 699.4 813.0 867.0 796.5 805.3 874.985 to 89 years 405.0 481.1 568.6 615.0 575.5 591.090 to 94 years 154.0 205.7 250.3 301.1 329.9 315.795 to 99 years 34.8 47.0 63.6 79.3 96.8 106.9100 years and over 3.8 4.7 6.4 8.7 11.1 13.6Total 19,834.4 20,155.0 20,438.9 20,700.9 20,964.1 21,246.3

Females0 to 4 years 881.8 893.5 908.4 916.4 919.9 920.25 to 9 years 932.1 923.2 935.6 951.3 959.8 963.910 to 14 years 986.4 970.1 962.0 975.1 991.3 1,000.515 to 19 years 1,040.2 1,041.2 1,025.8 1,018.5 1,032.2 1,049.020 to 24 years 1,117.1 1,134.2 1,136.3 1,121.9 1,115.6 1,130.125 to 29 years 1,194.2 1,181.4 1,200.1 1,203.7 1,190.7 1,185.730 to 34 years 1,175.5 1,251.3 1,240.5 1,260.7 1,265.8 1,254.435 to 39 years 1,225.4 1,225.7 1,302.5 1,293.2 1,314.5 1,320.940 to 44 years 1,347.1 1,257.6 1,259.2 1,336.7 1,328.6 1,350.945 to 49 years 1,363.7 1,361.1 1,273.7 1,276.4 1,354.2 1,347.250 to 54 years 1,323.7 1,365.3 1,364.0 1,278.6 1,282.3 1,360.455 to 59 years 1,250.4 1,317.7 1,360.3 1,360.4 1,277.1 1,282.060 to 64 years 1,164.3 1,238.5 1,306.5 1,350.3 1,352.0 1,271.565 to 69 years 1,151.5 1,139.4 1,214.2 1,282.9 1,328.2 1,332.070 to 74 years 1,235.4 1,104.5 1,096.7 1,172.1 1,241.5 1,288.675 to 79 years 1,111.7 1,146.7 1,031.3 1,029.2 1,105.0 1,175.180 to 84 years 861.8 973.0 1,011.0 917.1 922.2 997.485 to 89 years 575.5 672.2 767.8 805.6 740.0 752.690 to 94 years 271.8 359.4 428.5 496.8 527.5 493.595 to 99 years 84.8 112.1 150.7 184.5 217.8 234.1100 years and over 13.7 16.6 22.5 30.7 38.9 46.9Total 20,308.1 20,684.8 20,997.7 21,262.0 21,505.3 21,756.8

Both sexes0 to 4 years 1,805.6 1,829.5 1,860.3 1,876.6 1,883.9 1,884.55 to 9 years 1,909.6 1,891.4 1,916.9 1,949.0 1,966.6 1,975.110 to 14 years 2,024.2 1,990.8 1,974.4 2,001.3 2,034.6 2,053.515 to 19 years 2,137.2 2,139.6 2,108.2 2,093.4 2,121.6 2,156.220 to 24 years 2,288.2 2,323.3 2,327.9 2,298.5 2,285.6 2,315.425 to 29 years 2,420.0 2,391.2 2,429.2 2,436.3 2,409.5 2,399.130 to 34 years 2,368.1 2,513.8 2,488.9 2,529.7 2,539.6 2,515.935 to 39 years 2,460.5 2,464.3 2,612.0 2,590.3 2,633.4 2,645.940 to 44 years 2,691.3 2,519.0 2,525.7 2,674.6 2,655.5 2,700.545 to 49 years 2,733.2 2,714.8 2,547.1 2,556.2 2,706.0 2,689.350 to 54 years 2,642.4 2,730.9 2,715.9 2,552.8 2,564.3 2,715.055 to 59 years 2,473.2 2,620.9 2,712.1 2,700.9 2,543.0 2,557.260 to 64 years 2,301.5 2,437.7 2,587.6 2,682.1 2,675.5 2,524.065 to 69 years 2,268.4 2,237.8 2,377.2 2,529.5 2,628.3 2,627.670 to 74 years 2,406.9 2,154.2 2,135.8 2,278.6 2,433.3 2,537.375 to 79 years 2,107.6 2,195.5 1,981.0 1,977.7 2,123.5 2,279.880 to 84 years 1,561.2 1,786.0 1,878.0 1,713.6 1,727.6 1,872.485 to 89 years 980.4 1,153.2 1,336.4 1,420.6 1,315.6 1,343.690 to 94 years 425.8 565.2 678.8 797.9 857.4 809.295 to 99 years 119.6 159.1 214.2 263.8 314.6 341.0100 years and over 17.4 21.3 28.9 39.4 50.0 60.6Total 40,142.4 40,839.8 41,436.5 41,962.9 42,469.4 43,003.1

Median age of total population 44.9 45.7 45.9 46.0 46.3 46.6

Dependency ratios0 to 14 years 23.4 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.465 years and over 40.3 41.3 42.4 43.9 45.6 47.1Total 63.7 64.3 65.4 67.1 69.0 70.5



Table 17Long term projections of population by age group and sex, medium-growth - historical trends (1981 to 2008) scenario(M1), July 1st, Canada, 2036 to 2061

2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 1,127.7 1,179.8 1,248.0 1,303.8 1,340.8 1,369.05 to 9 years 1,172.4 1,188.2 1,242.6 1,313.1 1,371.3 1,410.810 to 14 years 1,232.3 1,231.9 1,250.3 1,307.1 1,380.0 1,440.615 to 19 years 1,288.5 1,308.7 1,311.1 1,332.0 1,391.2 1,466.620 to 24 years 1,343.3 1,396.1 1,419.0 1,424.0 1,447.5 1,509.325 to 29 years 1,314.1 1,403.7 1,459.8 1,486.0 1,494.5 1,521.630 to 34 years 1,271.8 1,382.1 1,475.6 1,535.9 1,566.8 1,580.335 to 39 years 1,324.9 1,348.1 1,461.8 1,559.1 1,623.7 1,659.240 to 44 years 1,437.2 1,373.9 1,400.7 1,517.1 1,617.2 1,685.245 to 49 years 1,459.6 1,463.3 1,403.9 1,433.5 1,552.0 1,654.450 to 54 years 1,398.5 1,467.9 1,474.5 1,418.5 1,450.5 1,570.555 to 59 years 1,286.3 1,392.5 1,463.9 1,473.1 1,420.3 1,454.360 to 64 years 1,187.3 1,272.3 1,380.0 1,453.7 1,465.9 1,416.665 to 69 years 1,161.3 1,159.6 1,247.1 1,356.6 1,433.1 1,448.870 to 74 years 1,220.3 1,108.4 1,113.4 1,203.4 1,314.6 1,394.275 to 79 years 1,048.9 1,116.4 1,024.2 1,037.4 1,129.6 1,241.780 to 84 years 750.6 883.2 951.6 885.2 907.1 998.785 to 89 years 444.4 537.1 642.9 702.8 665.9 693.290 to 94 years 172.4 236.0 292.5 356.5 395.4 383.495 to 99 years 39.4 54.9 76.2 97.0 120.2 134.5100 years and over 4.3 5.4 7.7 10.7 14.0 17.6Total 21,685.3 22,509.6 23,346.7 24,206.7 25,101.5 26,050.3

Females0 to 4 years 1,076.5 1,126.1 1,191.1 1,244.2 1,279.5 1,306.45 to 9 years 1,117.9 1,132.8 1,184.6 1,251.7 1,307.1 1,344.710 to 14 years 1,171.2 1,170.6 1,187.9 1,241.8 1,311.1 1,368.715 to 19 years 1,221.4 1,240.3 1,242.1 1,261.6 1,317.7 1,389.220 to 24 years 1,284.3 1,334.8 1,356.7 1,361.7 1,384.3 1,443.525 to 29 years 1,291.5 1,381.0 1,436.2 1,463.0 1,473.0 1,500.930 to 34 years 1,269.7 1,385.5 1,479.8 1,540.3 1,572.6 1,588.635 to 39 years 1,329.3 1,349.9 1,469.5 1,567.8 1,632.5 1,669.640 to 44 years 1,452.4 1,383.4 1,407.4 1,529.8 1,631.0 1,699.145 to 49 years 1,461.3 1,481.8 1,416.2 1,442.8 1,567.1 1,670.450 to 54 years 1,403.4 1,473.3 1,495.9 1,433.0 1,461.6 1,587.155 to 59 years 1,310.1 1,405.5 1,476.9 1,501.4 1,441.1 1,471.560 to 64 years 1,209.4 1,306.1 1,402.5 1,475.5 1,502.0 1,444.665 to 69 years 1,188.6 1,192.4 1,290.0 1,387.3 1,461.9 1,490.670 to 74 years 1,272.0 1,150.6 1,158.4 1,256.7 1,354.8 1,431.175 to 79 years 1,150.6 1,195.7 1,088.1 1,101.0 1,199.7 1,298.280 to 84 years 902.7 1,026.4 1,074.7 986.5 1,005.8 1,103.785 to 89 years 614.4 724.2 833.5 881.9 820.0 845.690 to 94 years 297.9 399.4 481.1 562.7 603.3 571.695 to 99 years 96.0 129.5 176.9 219.3 261.7 284.7100 years and over 16.0 20.0 27.7 38.6 49.7 60.7Total 22,136.4 23,009.2 23,877.2 24,748.5 25,637.4 26,570.5

Both sexes0 to 4 years 2,204.2 2,305.8 2,439.1 2,548.0 2,620.3 2,675.55 to 9 years 2,290.3 2,321.0 2,427.1 2,564.9 2,678.3 2,755.410 to 14 years 2,403.4 2,402.6 2,438.2 2,548.9 2,691.1 2,809.315 to 19 years 2,509.9 2,549.0 2,553.2 2,593.6 2,708.9 2,855.820 to 24 years 2,627.6 2,730.9 2,775.7 2,785.6 2,831.8 2,952.725 to 29 years 2,605.6 2,784.7 2,895.9 2,949.0 2,967.6 3,022.530 to 34 years 2,541.5 2,767.6 2,955.4 3,076.2 3,139.4 3,168.935 to 39 years 2,654.2 2,698.0 2,931.4 3,126.9 3,256.2 3,328.840 to 44 years 2,889.6 2,757.3 2,808.1 3,046.9 3,248.3 3,384.345 to 49 years 2,920.9 2,945.1 2,820.1 2,876.3 3,119.0 3,324.850 to 54 years 2,801.9 2,941.3 2,970.4 2,851.5 2,912.1 3,157.655 to 59 years 2,596.5 2,798.0 2,940.8 2,974.5 2,861.4 2,925.860 to 64 years 2,396.7 2,578.3 2,782.5 2,929.2 2,967.9 2,861.265 to 69 years 2,349.9 2,352.0 2,537.1 2,743.9 2,894.9 2,939.570 to 74 years 2,492.3 2,258.9 2,271.8 2,460.2 2,669.4 2,825.275 to 79 years 2,199.5 2,312.1 2,112.3 2,138.4 2,329.3 2,539.980 to 84 years 1,653.3 1,909.6 2,026.4 1,871.7 1,913.0 2,102.485 to 89 years 1,058.8 1,261.4 1,476.4 1,584.7 1,485.9 1,538.790 to 94 years 470.3 635.4 773.5 919.2 998.7 955.095 to 99 years 135.3 184.4 253.1 316.2 381.8 419.2100 years and over 20.2 25.4 35.4 49.3 63.7 78.3Total 43,821.7 45,518.8 47,224.0 48,955.2 50,738.9 52,620.8





Table 18Long term projections of population by age group and sex, medium-growth - 2006 to 2008 trends scenario (M2),July 1st, Canada, 2036 to 2061

2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

thousands









2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

thousands








Table 21Long term projections of population by age group and sex, high-growth scenario (H), July 1st, Canada, 2036 to 2061

2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

thousands

Males0 to 4 years 1,355.0 1,460.1 1,597.7 1,719.1 1,807.2 1,882.95 to 9 years 1,383.6 1,434.2 1,543.9 1,686.4 1,813.0 1,906.710 to 14 years 1,439.2 1,462.2 1,517.7 1,632.5 1,780.2 1,912.515 to 19 years 1,489.6 1,534.2 1,562.2 1,623.0 1,743.1 1,896.420 to 24 years 1,518.4 1,615.3 1,664.8 1,698.2 1,764.4 1,890.025 to 29 years 1,400.1 1,604.1 1,707.3 1,763.8 1,804.6 1,878.630 to 34 years 1,357.9 1,504.3 1,715.9 1,828.2 1,894.8 1,946.535 to 39 years 1,422.4 1,469.1 1,623.2 1,842.5 1,964.1 2,041.140 to 44 years 1,537.5 1,497.7 1,551.2 1,711.5 1,936.7 2,065.945 to 49 years 1,555.9 1,582.7 1,549.0 1,607.8 1,772.9 2,002.750 to 54 years 1,482.7 1,577.8 1,608.9 1,580.0 1,642.9 1,811.555 to 59 years 1,352.3 1,486.4 1,584.2 1,618.6 1,593.5 1,659.560 to 64 years 1,238.1 1,347.5 1,483.7 1,584.1 1,621.9 1,600.665 to 69 years 1,204.9 1,220.7 1,332.8 1,471.0 1,574.4 1,615.970 to 74 years 1,266.5 1,164.6 1,186.5 1,301.0 1,441.1 1,547.675 to 79 years 1,099.0 1,179.7 1,094.9 1,123.9 1,240.4 1,381.580 to 84 years 800.3 950.1 1,031.9 970.3 1,007.0 1,122.885 to 89 years 484.5 593.3 716.4 789.6 756.1 796.990 to 94 years 191.9 268.1 336.9 414.6 464.0 455.095 to 99 years 44.4 63.7 90.3 116.6 146.1 165.3100 years and over 4.8 6.3 9.2 13.2 17.5 22.2Total 23,629.0 25,022.0 26,508.5 28,096.0 29,786.2 31,602.1

Females0 to 4 years 1,293.5 1,393.6 1,524.8 1,640.5 1,724.5 1,796.85 to 9 years 1,319.1 1,367.2 1,471.6 1,607.3 1,727.9 1,817.210 to 14 years 1,367.6 1,389.1 1,441.7 1,550.7 1,691.1 1,816.815 to 19 years 1,411.6 1,453.4 1,479.5 1,536.8 1,650.5 1,795.920 to 24 years 1,454.6 1,547.6 1,595.4 1,628.0 1,692.0 1,812.725 to 29 years 1,388.2 1,589.0 1,691.5 1,749.7 1,793.4 1,869.030 to 34 years 1,372.4 1,525.3 1,735.6 1,849.2 1,919.6 1,976.435 to 39 years 1,442.2 1,487.6 1,648.5 1,867.0 1,990.2 2,071.240 to 44 years 1,565.8 1,521.6 1,573.7 1,740.9 1,965.7 2,096.345 to 49 years 1,565.2 1,612.8 1,574.2 1,631.3 1,803.1 2,032.450 to 54 years 1,487.3 1,588.9 1,640.0 1,605.5 1,666.2 1,841.055 to 59 years 1,372.4 1,498.3 1,602.3 1,656.2 1,625.2 1,688.860 to 64 years 1,255.8 1,376.7 1,504.3 1,610.5 1,667.2 1,639.965 to 69 years 1,225.7 1,246.8 1,369.1 1,498.1 1,606.4 1,665.870 to 74 years 1,307.3 1,196.4 1,221.3 1,344.7 1,474.7 1,584.875 to 79 years 1,186.9 1,242.4 1,143.9 1,173.5 1,297.4 1,427.880 to 84 years 940.7 1,076.5 1,135.4 1,054.3 1,089.6 1,212.685 to 89 years 651.3 773.9 896.6 955.9 899.1 939.790 to 94 years 323.6 439.2 533.6 628.8 680.0 652.195 to 99 years 107.5 147.8 204.7 256.5 308.9 339.6100 years and over 18.5 23.7 33.7 47.6 62.1 76.9Total 24,057.0 25,497.6 27,021.4 28,633.1 30,334.8 32,153.8

Both sexes0 to 4 years 2,648.5 2,853.7 3,122.5 3,359.6 3,531.7 3,679.85 to 9 years 2,702.7 2,801.4 3,015.5 3,293.7 3,540.9 3,723.910 to 14 years 2,806.8 2,851.3 2,959.4 3,183.2 3,471.4 3,729.315 to 19 years 2,901.2 2,987.6 3,041.7 3,159.8 3,393.7 3,692.320 to 24 years 2,972.9 3,162.9 3,260.3 3,326.1 3,456.4 3,702.725 to 29 years 2,788.3 3,193.1 3,398.8 3,513.5 3,597.9 3,747.630 to 34 years 2,730.3 3,029.5 3,451.5 3,677.4 3,814.4 3,922.935 to 39 years 2,864.6 2,956.7 3,271.7 3,709.5 3,954.3 4,112.440 to 44 years 3,103.3 3,019.4 3,124.9 3,452.4 3,902.5 4,162.245 to 49 years 3,121.0 3,195.5 3,123.1 3,239.2 3,576.0 4,035.150 to 54 years 2,970.0 3,166.7 3,248.9 3,185.5 3,309.2 3,652.555 to 59 years 2,724.7 2,984.8 3,186.5 3,274.8 3,218.8 3,348.460 to 64 years 2,493.8 2,724.2 2,988.0 3,194.7 3,289.1 3,240.565 to 69 years 2,430.6 2,467.5 2,701.8 2,969.1 3,180.8 3,281.770 to 74 years 2,573.8 2,361.0 2,407.8 2,645.6 2,915.7 3,132.475 to 79 years 2,285.9 2,422.0 2,238.8 2,297.4 2,537.8 2,809.280 to 84 years 1,741.0 2,026.5 2,167.2 2,024.7 2,096.7 2,335.485 to 89 years 1,135.8 1,367.2 1,613.0 1,745.5 1,655.2 1,736.690 to 94 years 515.5 707.3 870.5 1,043.5 1,144.0 1,107.195 to 99 years 151.9 211.4 295.0 373.1 455.0 504.9100 years and over 23.2 30.1 42.9 60.8 79.6 99.0Total 47,686.0 50,519.6 53,529.9 56,729.1 60,121.0 63,755.9





Methodology and data quality

The methods used for these population projections are explained in detail in section 1– Methods and assumptions–and section 2 – Selection of scenarios – of this document. Users will also find in these sections information relatingto data quality.

It is also worth noting that the accuracy of any projection is conditional on the reliability of the base populationestimates, the component data, and the degree to which the underlying assumptions correspond to future trends.Projections are not predictions; they are instead an effort to create plausible scenarios based on assumptionsregarding the components of population growth, which are themselves subject to uncertainty. Accordingly, it cannotbe claimed that the values observed in the coming years will always remain within the range implied by the low-growthand high-growth scenarios.



Glossary

Aging (of a population): An increase in the number of old persons as a percentage of the total population.

Baby boom period: The period following World War II, 1946 to 1965, marked by an important increase in fertilityrates and in the absolute number of births.

Base population: Population used as the starting point for a population projection.

Cohort: Represents a group of persons who have experienced a specific demographic event during a given year.In the case of births, persons born within a specified year are referred to as a generation.

Components of population growth: Births, deaths and migration are components that alter the size of the totalpopulation and its composition by age and sex.

Demographic dependency ratio: Number of persons aged 14 or under and 65 or over per persons of working age(15 to 64).

Emigrant: Canadian citizen or immigrant who left Canada to settle permanently in another country.

Generation: Refers to a group of persons born within a given period. The 2006 generation represents people bornduring the year 2006.

Immigrant: Person who has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities.

Interprovincial migration: Movement from one province to another involving a permanent change in residence. Aperson who takes up residence in another province or territory is an out-migrant with reference to the province orterritory of origin, and an in-migrant with reference to the province or territory of destination.

Life expectancy: A statistical measure derived from the life table indicating the average number of years of liferemaining for a population at a specific age x, if the people comprising that population would experience the mortalityrates observed in a given year during their lives.

Median age: Age “x”, such that exactly one half of the population is older than “x” and the other half is younger than“x”.

Migratory increase: Difference between the number of migrants who settle within a geographic area and the numberof migrants who leave that same area during a given period.

Mortality life table: A description of the extinction, age by age, of a hypothetical cohort according to the mortalityobserved a given year.

Natural increase: Difference between the number of births and the number of deaths during a given period.

Net emigration or total emigration: Number of emigrants minus the number of returning emigrants plus nettemporary emigration.

Net international migration: Variation obtained according to the following formula: Immigrants + returningemigrants + net non-permanent residents – (emigrants + net temporary emigration).

Net interprovincial migration: Difference between in-migrants and out-migrants for a given province or territory.

Net migration: Difference between immigration and emigration or in-migration and out-migration for a given areaand period of time.

Net non-permanent residents: Net non-permanent residents represent the variation in the number ofnon-permanent residents between two dates.



Net temporary emigration: Variation in the number of temporary emigrants between two dates.

Net undercoverage: Difference between the number of persons who were covered by the census but who werenot enumerated (undercoverage) and the number of persons who were enumerated whereas they should not havebeen or who were enumerated more than once (overcoverage).

Non-permanent residents: Persons from another country who had an employment authorization, a studentauthorization, or a Minister’s permit, or who were refugees claimants, and family members living with them.

Population increase or total increase: Change in the size of a population between two dates. It can also beobtained by summing natural increase and migratory increase.

Population pyramid: Bar chart that shows the distribution of a population by age and sex.

Projection scenario: Set of assumptions relating to the demographic components used to make a populationprojection.

Rate: Refers to the ratio of the number of events estimated in a year (t, t+1) to the average populations at thebeginning and the end of the period. Crude rates are rates computed for an entire population. Specific rates arerates computed for a specific subgroup – usually the population at risk of having the event occurs. Thus, rates canbe age-specific, sex-specific, etc.

Replacement level: Mean number of births per woman necessary to assure the long-term replacement of apopulation for a given mortality level. Currently, the replacement level in Canada is about 2.1 children per woman.

Returning emigrant: Canadian citizen or immigrant who have previously emigrated from Canada and who returnsto settle in Canada.

Sex ratio: Ratio of males to females in a given population. It is usually expressed as the number of malesper 100 females.

Temporary emigrant or persons temporarily abroad: Canadian citizen or immigrant who left Canada to settletemporarily in a foreign country.

Total fertility rate: The sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year. It indicates the average number ofchildren that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they had fertility ratesidentical to those of the year considered.



Bibliography

Bernard, A., R. Finnie and B. St-Jean. 2008. “Interprovincial mobility and earnings”, Perspectives on Labour andIncome, volume 9, no. 10.

Citizenship and Immigration Canada. 2009. Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration, 2009, catalogue no.CiL-2009F-PDF, 36 p.

Coulombe S. 2006. “Internal migration, Asymmetric shocks, and Interprovincial Economic Adjustments in Canada”, International Regional Science Review, SAGE publications, volume 29, no. 2, p. 199 to 223.

Dion, P. and S. Coulombe. 2008. “Portrait of the mobility of Canadians in 2006: Trajectories and characteristicsof migrants”, Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada 2005 and 2006, Statistics Canada catalogueno. 91-209-X, p. 78 to 98.

Guillemette, Y. and B.P. Robson. 2006. “No Elixir of Youth: Immigration Cannot Keep Canada Young”, Backgrounder,C.D Howe Institute, no. 96, 16 p.

Li, N. and R Lee. 2005. “Coherent Mortality Forecasts for a Group of Population”, Demography, volume 42, no. 3,p. 575 to 594.

Loh, S. and M.V. George. 2007. “Projected Population and Age Structure for Canada and Provinces: With andWithout International Migration”, Canadian Studies in Population, volume 34, no. 2, p. 103 to 127.

Sardon, J.P. 2004. “Évolution démographique récente des pays développés”, Population, volume 59, no. 2,p. 305 to 360.

Statistics Canada. 2005. Population projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories 2005-2031, Statistics Canadacatalogue no. 91-520-X, 213 p.





Statistics Canada. 1979. Population projections for Canada and the Provinces, 1976-2001, Statistics Canadacatalogue no. 91-520-X, 472 p.

Statistics Canada. 1974. Population projections for Canada and the Provinces, 1972-2001, Statistics Canadacatalogue no. 91-514-X, 188 p.

United Nations. 2000. Replacement Migration, UN Population Division, New York, ONU, 143 p.


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