population figures 6000 bc (before common era): 5 million 1 ce: 250 million 1810: 1 billion ...
TRANSCRIPT
Population FiguresPopulation Figures
6000 BC (Before Common Era): 5 million6000 BC (Before Common Era): 5 million 1 CE: 250 million1 CE: 250 million 1810: 1 billion1810: 1 billion 1960: 3 billion1960: 3 billion 2010: 6.8 billion (and counting)2010: 6.8 billion (and counting) 2100: UN estimates 10 billion2100: UN estimates 10 billion
Currently 80% of the world’s people live in developing Currently 80% of the world’s people live in developing countriescountries
UN estimates that over 90% of future population UN estimates that over 90% of future population growth will occur in these already overpopulated growth will occur in these already overpopulated countries countries
Are there limits to growth? Are there limits to growth?
Thomas Malthus, 19Thomas Malthus, 19thth C Economist C Economist
Malthus argued that Malthus argued that the world’s population the world’s population growth needs to slowgrowth needs to slow
Food production Food production would not be able to would not be able to keep up with the rapid keep up with the rapid growth of populationgrowth of population
Everyone’s quality of Everyone’s quality of life will be destroyedlife will be destroyed
Megaslums – Megaslums – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFgb1BdPBZo
DemographyDemography
The study and analysis of population. Includes:The study and analysis of population. Includes: Population densityPopulation density Population distributionPopulation distribution Dependency ratioDependency ratio Population pyramidsPopulation pyramids Demographic transition modelsDemographic transition models Population projectionsPopulation projections
Fertility Rate & Status of WomenFertility Rate & Status of Women
Fertility RateFertility Rate : Average number of live : Average number of live births each year for every woman of births each year for every woman of childbearing agechildbearing age
For example: In Canada, the fertility rate is 1.57 children born/woman (2008 est.) So on average, most women have less than 2 children in their lifetime.
Fertility Rate & Status of WomenFertility Rate & Status of Women economic development and economic development and
the fertility rate of countries the fertility rate of countries are strongly connectedare strongly connected decline in # of children a decline in # of children a
woman has frees her to woman has frees her to improve her life & the lives of improve her life & the lives of her childrenher children
better educated women have better educated women have fewer children – tend to marry fewer children – tend to marry later and have fewer children, later and have fewer children, usually because they are better usually because they are better educated about contraception educated about contraception and better able to resist family and better able to resist family pressure to have more childrenpressure to have more children
Fertility Rate & Status of WomenFertility Rate & Status of Women
children of educated children of educated women also more likely to women also more likely to survivesurvive
know more about the know more about the importance of importance of immunization, clean water, immunization, clean water, and good nutritionand good nutrition
study in Peru – showed study in Peru – showed infant mortality rate infant mortality rate dropped for every year of dropped for every year of schooling the mother hadschooling the mother had
key to improving status of key to improving status of women: educationwomen: education
Demographic Transition Model Demographic Transition Model (DTM)(DTM)
Describes population change over time or Describes population change over time or transitions, in birth rates and death transitions, in birth rates and death rates in industrialized societiesrates in industrialized societies over the over the past 200 yearspast 200 years
Shift Happens Video: Shift Happens Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4FJMJtt8dk&feature=related
Demographic Transition Model – 5 stagesDemographic Transition Model – 5 stages Stage 1 – Pre-Modern – Pre-IndustrialStage 1 – Pre-Modern – Pre-Industrial
Small population growthSmall population growth Balance between birth and death ratesBalance between birth and death rates Life expectancy LOWLife expectancy LOW
Demographic Transition Model – 5 stagesDemographic Transition Model – 5 stages
Rise in population caused by decline in death rateRise in population caused by decline in death rate (due to better health care, medicine, sanitation, (due to better health care, medicine, sanitation, technology, farming techniques, food supply, technology, farming techniques, food supply, education, etc.) education, etc.) while birth rate remains high or riseswhile birth rate remains high or rises
Rapid increase in population numbers due to Rapid increase in population numbers due to improved medical and scientific advances to sustain improved medical and scientific advances to sustain lifelife
Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage stage experience a large increase in populationexperience a large increase in population. .
Stage 2 – Urbanizing / Industrializing – Stage 2 – Urbanizing / Industrializing – Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries
Demographic Transition Model – 5 stagesDemographic Transition Model – 5 stages
Stage 3 – Mature / IndustrializingStage 3 – Mature / Industrializing Decline in birth rate results in Decline in birth rate results in more stable populationmore stable population Improved living standardsImproved living standards birth rates fall due to:birth rates fall due to:
• access to contraception, access to contraception, • increases in wages, increases in wages, • urbanization, urbanization, • a reduction in subsistence agriculture, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, • an increase in the status and education of women, an increase in the status and education of women, • a reduction in the value of children's work, a reduction in the value of children's work, • an increase in parental investment in the education of an increase in parental investment in the education of
children and other social changeschildren and other social changes Population growth begins to level offPopulation growth begins to level off
Demographic Transition Model – 5 stagesDemographic Transition Model – 5 stages Stage 4 – Post IndustrialStage 4 – Post Industrial
Characterized by Characterized by stability (linked to economic stabilitystability (linked to economic stability)) Population age structure has become older due to low birth Population age structure has become older due to low birth
rates and death ratesrates and death rates Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has
happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. industries that rely on population growth.
The large group born during stage two ages & creates an The large group born during stage two ages & creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. economic burden on the shrinking working population.
Death rates may remain consistently low or increase Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries. developed countries.
Demographic Transition Model – 5 stagesDemographic Transition Model – 5 stages
Stage 5 – De-industrializingStage 5 – De-industrializing Birth rates drop below death ratesBirth rates drop below death rates
• Represent countries that have undergone the economic transition from manufacturing based industries into service and information based industries called deindustrialization
• Countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, England and most notably Japan, whose populations are now reproducing well below their replacement levels, are not producing enough children to replace their parent's generation.
Changes in Canada’s Population & Changes in Canada’s Population & the World’s Populationthe World’s Population
Canada’s birth rate and death rate have been Canada’s birth rate and death rate have been dropping steadily in the past 30 yearsdropping steadily in the past 30 years
Overall – population is getting olderOverall – population is getting older
Will have Will have significant significant effects on effects on Canada’s Canada’s health care health care system and system and social servicessocial services
Canada’s PopulationCanada’s Population Canada’s age structure – Canada’s age structure – major factor in major factor in
determining immigration policydetermining immigration policy Currently – government strives for 1% of the Currently – government strives for 1% of the
population to be from immigration (about population to be from immigration (about 200,000 immigrants /year)200,000 immigrants /year)
However – currently only meeting 0.7% However – currently only meeting 0.7%
WHY?WHY?
THINK – PAIR-SHARE:THINK – PAIR-SHARE: Why will Canada’s low growth rate Why will Canada’s low growth rate have have
significant effects on Canada’s health care significant effects on Canada’s health care system and social services?system and social services?
Why is Canada’s age structure a Why is Canada’s age structure a major major factor in determining our immigration factor in determining our immigration policy policy (the number of people we allow into (the number of people we allow into the country per year)the country per year)? ?
DemographyDemography
What do What do populations tell populations tell us about what us about what
we need? we need?
Population DistributionPopulation Distribution Refers to the way people are distributed across the Refers to the way people are distributed across the
Earth’s surfaceEarth’s surface Has always been uneven - High concentrations in small Has always been uneven - High concentrations in small
areas areas Over 50% of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the landOver 50% of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land 90% live on 20% of the land90% live on 20% of the land Approximately 35% of world’s land not good for settlementApproximately 35% of world’s land not good for settlement
Population DistributionPopulation Distribution Concentration explained by:Concentration explained by: Many areas of the Earth’ land are inhospitable Many areas of the Earth’ land are inhospitable
(difficult to live in) due to:(difficult to live in) due to: AccessibilityAccessibility (i.e. to transportation and / or (i.e. to transportation and / or
communication)communication) ClimateClimate (i.e. too hot or too cold), not enough rainfall(i.e. too hot or too cold), not enough rainfall The LandscapeThe Landscape (i.e. too mountainous or desert)(i.e. too mountainous or desert) The VegetationThe Vegetation (i.e. access to food and shelter)(i.e. access to food and shelter) The Resources availableThe Resources available (i.e. access to clean water)(i.e. access to clean water)
Population DistributionPopulation Distribution In Canada – 80% of people live within In Canada – 80% of people live within
200km of our Southern border (the USA)200km of our Southern border (the USA) Most choose to Most choose to
live in areas live in areas where where temperatures temperatures more moderatemore moderate (i.e. not in North)(i.e. not in North)
Majority of Majority of Canadians live in Canadians live in urban (city) urban (city) centrescentres
Population DensityPopulation Density Refers to the Refers to the number of people in a given areanumber of people in a given area Population density for an entire country – called Population density for an entire country – called
a crude densitya crude density Calculated by dividing a country’s population by Calculated by dividing a country’s population by
its areaits area
Population DensityPopulation Density 75% of the world’s population lives in Africa and 75% of the world’s population lives in Africa and
AsiaAsia Might seem overpopulated, but crude density shows Might seem overpopulated, but crude density shows
that Africa is under-populated for its land areathat Africa is under-populated for its land area Comprises 20.2% of the Earth’s landmass, yet only Comprises 20.2% of the Earth’s landmass, yet only
hold 12.7% of the Earth’s populationhold 12.7% of the Earth’s population
Europe – 3.3% Europe – 3.3% landmass – landmass – holds 10% of holds 10% of Earth’s Earth’s populationpopulation
WHY? HOW?WHY? HOW?
Why is there Why is there uneven population uneven population distributiondistribution in the world and in Canada? in the world and in Canada?
How could How could population density affectpopulation density affect the the physical and human environment?physical and human environment?
Resources
Landscape
Climate
GovernmentPolicies
Disease
Development
Culture
Communication
Accessibility
Water
VegetationSoils
PopulationDensity
Physical Factors
Human Factors
Demographic Tools - Demographic Tools - Population CensusPopulation Census
To help governments maintain accurate records To help governments maintain accurate records of its people, most countries conduct a of its people, most countries conduct a population census every 5-10 yearspopulation census every 5-10 years
Data includes population count, birthplace, age, Data includes population count, birthplace, age, sex, first language, level of literacy, employment, sex, first language, level of literacy, employment, income, etc.income, etc.
WHY? HOW?WHY? HOW?
How and why is census data used to How and why is census data used to inform governments and their future plans inform governments and their future plans (policies)?(policies)?
Demographic Tools - Demographic Tools - Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids
Show population structures of countriesShow population structures of countries Provide insight into “problems” and give Provide insight into “problems” and give
reasons for shifts in population trendsreasons for shifts in population trends Most basic: age-sex structure – shown in Most basic: age-sex structure – shown in
population pyramidspopulation pyramids
Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid Graph that shows the age and sex make up of a Graph that shows the age and sex make up of a
populationpopulation Shows percentage of people in each age group Shows percentage of people in each age group
& percentage of males and females in each age & percentage of males and females in each age groupgroup
Useful – helps predict Useful – helps predict future population future population trendstrends
i.e. if few women of i.e. if few women of childbearing age, childbearing age, population may population may decrease due to low decrease due to low birth ratebirth rate
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm
Population Pyramids - ExamplesPopulation Pyramids - Examples There are 4 main types of Population There are 4 main types of Population
Pyramids:Pyramids:
1.1. ExpandingExpanding
2.2. Early ExpandingEarly Expanding
3.3. ContractingContracting
4.4. StableStable
ExpandingExpanding
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html
http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm
Early ExpandingEarly Expanding
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html
http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm
StableStable
Japan
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html
http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm
ContractingContracting
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html
http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm
Population Pyramids - GrowthPopulation Pyramids - Growth
Dependency Ratio / LoadDependency Ratio / Load Dependency ratioDependency ratio refers to the refers to the proportion of the population proportion of the population
that is being supported by (or is DEPENDENT ON) the that is being supported by (or is DEPENDENT ON) the working-age-group (15-65 years old)working-age-group (15-65 years old)
Those who work experience a greater financial burden if Those who work experience a greater financial burden if their country has a high dependency ratiotheir country has a high dependency ratio
Africa – 40% of the population – under 15 years oldAfrica – 40% of the population – under 15 years old High birth rateHigh birth rate Expanding populationExpanding population Stage 2 of DTMStage 2 of DTM
HOW? WHY?HOW? WHY?
How can governments use population How can governments use population pyramids to help inform their future plans pyramids to help inform their future plans (policies)?(policies)?
Why is the dependency ratio of a country Why is the dependency ratio of a country particularly important for governments to particularly important for governments to know?know?
OverpopulationOverpopulation Countries that have too many Countries that have too many
people for a given resource people for a given resource base and a given level of base and a given level of technological developmenttechnological development
When exceeded its “carrying When exceeded its “carrying capacity” – level at which land capacity” – level at which land can no longer support its can no longer support its people (i.e. low food supplies)people (i.e. low food supplies)
Result - Many people:Result - Many people: live in poverty live in poverty Lack adequate food, water, and Lack adequate food, water, and
sheltershelter Rely heavily on importing Rely heavily on importing
necessary goodsnecessary goods
Stress on Infrastructure
(i.e. roads, schools,
hospitals)
Food Shortages
Destruction of
Environment
Increase in Unemploym
ent
Technology – energy
alternatives?
Energy shortages
Resource Depletioni.e. - water
Increase in Pollution
Housing Shortages
Population Growth – Potential Problems
Overpopulation - ResponsesOverpopulation - Responses
1970s – China had 1970s – China had one of the highest one of the highest population growth population growth rates in the worldrates in the world 1 billion people – 1 billion people –
1/5 world’s 1/5 world’s population at the population at the timetime
Women averaged 6 Women averaged 6 children eachchildren each
China’s One Child Policy - 1979China’s One Child Policy - 1979
At this point - # of At this point - # of births reduced to 2.7 births reduced to 2.7 children per womanchildren per woman
Government offered Government offered rewards to families rewards to families such as:such as: Free medical careFree medical care Monthly wage bonusesMonthly wage bonuses Preferential housingPreferential housing Extra pension incomeExtra pension income
China’s One Child PolicyChina’s One Child Policy
If family had a 2If family had a 2ndnd child – suffered child – suffered penalties such aspenalties such as Cancellation of benefitsCancellation of benefits FinesFines Wage reductionsWage reductions
China’s One Child PolicyChina’s One Child Policy Problems:Problems:
Greater in urban areas Greater in urban areas due to financial due to financial benefitsbenefits
Rural areas – reply on Rural areas – reply on children as labourers – children as labourers –
Value sons above Value sons above daughtersdaughters
Some families resort to Some families resort to infanticide (murder) of infanticide (murder) of female babiesfemale babies
Others ignore policy in Others ignore policy in favour of their desired favour of their desired family structurefamily structure
• Current Status: average 1.8 Current Status: average 1.8 children per womanchildren per woman
• Still in effect todayStill in effect today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4OWJlyaHt0&feature=related
WHY? HOW?WHY? HOW?
Should governments have the power to Should governments have the power to control the population rate through legal control the population rate through legal means? means?
Responses to Control Responses to Control Population GrowthPopulation Growth
Improve TechnologyImprove Technology Though application of Though application of
science, including:science, including:• ComputersComputers• Cell phonesCell phones• TVsTVs
Countries with higher Countries with higher levels of technology levels of technology tend to have more tend to have more developed economiesdeveloped economies
Responses to Population GrowthResponses to Population Growth
Family PlanningFamily Planning / / Controlling Controlling Population Growth Population Growth RateRate Reduced population Reduced population
reduces strain on reduces strain on resources (natural, resources (natural, economic, etc.)economic, etc.)
Leads to a general Leads to a general increase in standard increase in standard of livingof living
Responses to Population GrowthResponses to Population Growth
Increase Resource Increase Resource Base / Lessen DisparityBase / Lessen Disparity Use own resources to Use own resources to
develop itself – could develop itself – could include:include:
Work forceWork force Natural resourcesNatural resources TechnologyTechnology Financial institutionsFinancial institutions
Responses to Population GrowthResponses to Population Growth
Improve Improve Literacy RatesLiteracy Rates Giving a population Giving a population
skills to read will skills to read will improve access to improve access to higher paying jobshigher paying jobs
This in turn will This in turn will improve overall improve overall quality of life and quality of life and standard of livingstandard of living
Responses to Population GrowthResponses to Population Growth
Increase Increase Opportunities Opportunities for Womenfor Women Leads to Leads to
improved improved economic economic development development for for allall