population dynamics zoo 511 ecology of fishes 2009
TRANSCRIPT
POPULATION DYNAMICS
Zoo 511 Ecology of Fishes 2009
Today’s goals
Understand why and how population dynamics are important in fisheries ecology
Gain experience in a variety of mark-recapture methods
“A population is a group of fish of the same species that are alive in a defined area at a given time” (Wootton 1990)
Population dynamics: changes in the number of individuals in a population or the vital rates of a population over time
What are population dynamics?
Major role of ecology: understand change
Major role of ecology: understand change
Myers et al. 2007
Why study population dynamics?
Often most relevant response to ecosystem manipulation/perturbation
Endangered species (population viability analysis, PVA)
Fisheries management (sustainable yield)
Understand ecosystem dynamics and ecological processes
Why study population dynamics?
Often most relevant response to ecosystem manipulation/perturbation
Endangered species (population viability analysis, PVA)
Fisheries management (sustainable yield)
Understand ecosystem dynamics and ecological processes
PVA: Modeling the probability that a population will go extinct or drop below the minimum viable population size within a given number of years.
Atlantic salmon PVAFrom Legault 2004
Why study population dynamics?
Often most relevant response to ecosystem manipulation/perturbation
Endangered species (population viability analysis, PVA)
Fisheries management (sustainable yield)
Understand ecosystem dynamics and ecological processes
from Hilborn and Walters 1992
Why study population dynamics?
Often most relevant response to ecosystem manipulation/perturbation
Endangered species (population viability analysis, PVA)
Fisheries management (sustainable yield)
Understand ecosystem dynamics and ecological processesWhen do ecological shifts occur?Are they stable?
Nt+1 = Nt + B – D + I – E
B = births D = deaths I = immigration E = emigration
How do populations change?
DeathsPopulationBirths
Emigration
Immigration
Stocking
Angling
Density Dependence
Population Density
Rate of Change (per capita)
Rate of population increase
Density independent
Density dependent
per
cap
ita a
nn
ual in
crease
N
Small group exercise
Time
Pop
ulat
ion
dens
ity
Time
Pop
ulat
ion
dens
ity
Density-dependent Density-independent
Population starts at low density.What happens to density over time
under density-dependent rate of increase?
What happens if rate of increase is density-independent?
Population starts at low density.What happens to density over time
under density-dependent rate of increase?
What happens if rate of increase is density-independent?
Logistic population growth
K= carrying capacityr0 = maximum rate of increase
dN/dt=r0N(1-N/K)
per
cap
ita a
nn
ual
incr
ease
N K
r0
R-selected vs. K-selected
r-selected K-selected
Environment variable and/or unpredictable
constant and/or predictable
Lifespan short long
Growth rate fast slow
Fecundity high low
Natural mortality high low
Population dynamics unstable stable
Nt+1 = Nt + B – D + I – E
B = births D = deaths I = immigration E = emigration
How do populations change?
DeathsPopulationBirths
Emigration
Immigration
Stocking
Angling
Survival
Predation Disease Prey availability Competition for food Harvest
“Natural Mortality”
Age 1
Age 2
Age 3
Year 1
N1,1 N1,2 N1,3
Year 2
N2,1 N2,2 N2,3
Year 3
N3,1 N3,2 N3,3
S
Survival
Eggs and larvae suffer the largest losses
Egg
Not Fertile
Inviable
Eaten
Other
Larva Viable & Competent
Starvation
Eaten
HATCHRecruit!
2 cohorts each produce 10,000,000 eggs
90.5% survivorship/day yields 24,787 survivors at 60 days
95.1% survivorship/day yields 497,871 survivors at 60 days
Recruitment
Can mean many things! Number of young-of-year (YOY) fish
entering population in a year Number of fish achieving age/size at which
they are vulnerable to fishing gear Somewhat arbitrary, varies among
populations Major goal of fish population dynamics:
understanding the relationship between stock size and recruitment
What determines recruitment?-Stock size (number and size of females)
What determines recruitment?
spawning stock biomass (SSB)
Ricker
Beverton-Holt
Density-independent
From: Wootton (1998). Ecology of teleost fishes.
What determines recruitment?
spawning stock biomass (SSB)
Ricker
Beverton-Holt
Density-independent
From: Wootton (1998). Ecology of teleost fishes.
What determines recruitment?
spawning stock biomass (SSB)
Ricker
Beverton-Holt
Density-independent
From: Wootton (1998). Ecology of teleost fishes.
The problem?
Stochasticity = variable recruitment!
From: Cushing (1996). Towards a science of recruitment in fishpopulations
Highly variable recruitment results in naturally very variable catches
From: Jennings, Kaiser and Reynolds (2001). Marine Fisheries Ecology
Population Abundance On rare occasions, abundance can be measured
directly Small enclosed systems Migration
Catch per unit effort (CPUE)
Very coarse and very common index of abundance
Effort= 4 nets for 12 hours each= 48 net hours
Catch= 4 fish
CPUE=4/48=0.083
Effort= 4 nets for 12 hours each= 48 net hours
Catch=8 fish
CPUE=8/48=0.167
We conclude population 2 is 2X larger than population 1
1
2
Population abundance
Density estimates (#/area) Eggs estimated with quadrats Pelagic larvae sampled with modified
plankton nets Juvenile and adult fish with nets, traps, hook
and line, or electrofishing Density is then used as index of
abundance, or multiplied by habitat area to get abundance estimate
Depletion methods
*
*
*
*
N
Time (or pass)
Closed populationVulnerability constant for each passCollection efficiency constantOften not simple linear regression
Mark recapture
M=5 C=4 R=2
N=population size=????
Modified Petersen method
Assumptions: Closed population Equal catchability in first sample Marking does NOT influence catchability
Marked and unmarked fish mix randomly Mortality rates are equal
Marks are not lost
How to avoid violation of assumptions? Two sampling gears Distribute marked individuals widely;
allow time for mixing Can be separated into different groups
Length Sex Geographic regions
How many to mark/recapture? Requires some knowledge of population size! Trade-off between precision and sample size
Population of 10,000: Mark 400 and examine 600 for +/- 50% OR mark 1,000 and examine 1,500 for +/- 10%
Trade-off between marked and recapture sample size Population of 10,000: Mark 1,000 and
examine1,500 OR Mark 4,500 and examine 500
Schnabel method
Closed population Equal catchabilty in first sample Marking does NOT influence catchability Multiple recaptures
Easier to pick up on violation of assumptions
Jolly Seber method
Open populations Allows estimation of births and deaths
Three or more sampling periods needed Equal catchability of all individuals in all
samples Equal probability of survival Marks are not lost Sampling time is negligible compared to
intervals between samples
Importance of variability
Confidence intervals Long-term frequency, not probablity! 95% confidence intervals if you repeated
procedure an infinite number of times, 95% of the time the interval you create would contain the “true” value
Precision vs. accuracy
xx
x xx
x
x
x
x
xxxx x
xxxx
Accurate, not precise Not accurate, precise Accurate, precise
Lets count some beans!