Population

A2 Revision

The Challenge

The world population is growing…fast Since 1960 the population of the earth has

doubled This has been caused by Better medicine and treatment of disease Better access to healthcare Better sanitation and hygiene Better diet and food supply

90% of all babies born each day are born in LEDC’s

Of the 4.8bn living there: 60% lack basic sanitation 30% are without clean water 25% have inadequate housing 20% have no access to healthcare

By 2050 the population of the world is expected to reach 9bn

It’s unlikely to level out before 2200 All have this has lead to many issues and

worries for the future: Disparity Consumption Production Migration Family size

Systems

Population change is the result of two processes Natural change and migrational change Its an OPEN SYSTEM Inputs = births and inward migration Outputs = Deaths and outward migration When births exceed deaths its called natural

increase Net migration gain/ net migration loss

Measures

Fertility Measured per 1000 people living in an area –

Crude Birth rate (This is a weak measurement)

General Fertility rate – Number of Births per year per 100 women of fertile age.

Measures

Mortality Measured per 1000 people living in an area –

Crude death rate (This is a weak measurement)

Infant Mortality rate: Number of child deaths under the age of 1 per 1000 live births in a given year.

The demographic status of the world's population

Measuring Population Change

Most change is measured by a census but these can sometimes be unreliable especially in LEDC’s

As management, money, education and rurality can all play an issue

3 categories are important to find information on:

Population Distribution Population Structure Population Change

To do this the UNO recommends that questions on the following should be asked:

Total Population and distribution within the country Sex age and marital status P.O.B and nationality Mother tongue and literacy Occupation Residential location, urban or rural Household type (Size, structure) Fertility

In MEDC’s most census are carried out every ten years

Population Distribution is generally shown as a Cartographic chart or topological map

Density

Measure as a Choropleth map

Limitations of Choropleth map Only represent an average value for each

area not matter what the scale Mean values are generalisations When they differ the neighbouring state gives

an impression of a sudden break whereas reality says its gradual

Does not take into account terrain Who decides the amount of classes How are they delineated

Measuring change

Can be done by Choropleth map Graphs

Natural Change

Changes in fertility Mortality Birth control

DevelopmentImproving living standards

Personal aspirationsMaterialismAwareness

Social traitsAwareness of need for BC

Women's rightsPerception of children

Sensitivity to cost

GovernmentBalance pop’n and resources

Access to BCHealthcareEducation

EnvironmentHigh Infant Mortality

No access to BC or health careLarge extended families

Cheap child labour

Cultural HeritageReligion

Children as symbols of male virilityIgnorance

Focus/ education

Birth Control

Weakening factors

Strengthening factors

Spread Of Disease

Diseases such as AIDS can have an immediate effect on population

Demographic Transition model

The Cairo Conference

Sept 1994 – 180 govt’s and hundreds of NGO’s Ended with a 20 yr plan Goals: Increase investment in women's reproductive health Reducing number of unsafe abortions Eliminate female genital mutilation Enforce marriage age laws Improve sex education Increase opportunities for women

Population theories

Malthus, Boserup and the Club of Rome

Thomas Malthus 1766-1834. Born near Guildford! Wrote ‘An essay in the First Principle of population’

first published in 1798 Debatable whether the principles of Malthus two

hundred years ago (that were very revolutionary and controversial) have any relevance to the modern world.

The world population in 1798 was at nine million people. We have now passed the six billion mark.

The Core Principles of Malthus:

¤ Food is necessary for human existence¤ Human population tends to grow faster than the

power in the earth to produce subsistence¤ The effects of these two unequal powers must be

kept equal¤ Since humans tend not to limit their population size

voluntarily - “preventive checks” in Malthus’ terminology.

Malthus recognised that population if unchecked, grows at a geometric rate:

1 2 4 8 16 32 However, food only increases at an arithmetic

rate, as land is finite.1 2 3 4 5 6

and therefore he said….

War, famine, disease.

Malthusian Catastrophe

TIME

food population

CHECKS

Malthus suggested that once this ceiling (catastrophe) had been reached, further growth in population would be prevented by negative and positive checks. He saw the checks as a natural method of population control. They can be split up into 3 groups….

Negative checks (decreased birth rate)….Negative Checks were used to limit the population

growth. It included abstinence/ postponement of marriage which lowered the fertility rate.

Malthus favoured moral restraint (including late marriage and sexual abstinence) as a check on population growth. However, it is worth noting that Malthus proposed this only for the working and poor classes!

Positive checks (increased death rate) Positive Checks were ways to reduce

population size by events such as famine, disease, war - increasing the mortality rate and reducing life expectancy.

'J' Curve - Population Crash Model

Was Malthus right?

There has been a population explosion Africa – repeated famines, wars, food crisis,

environmental degradation, soil erosion, crop failure and disastrous floods – so was he right?

But…..

Technological improvements which he could not have foreseen

The increased amount of cropland due to irrigation

Reduced population growth as countries move through the DTM

The Club of Rome

Group of industrialists, scientists, economists and statesmen from 10 countries

Published ‘The Limits to Growth’ in 1972

The Club of Rome – basic conclusion…. If present growth trends in world population continue

and if associated industrialisation, pollution, food production and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime in the next 100 years.

The most probably result will be sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity

Is the Club of Rome right?

Don’t panic yet! Doesn’t take human dimension sufficiently into

account Human race is adaptable and innovative Human responses have changed – e.g. alternative

sources of fuel (to replace fossil fuels), HYVs seeds to prevent starvation in parts of Asia

Esther Boserup 1965

Boserup believed tat people have the resources of knowledge and technology to increase food supplies.

Opposite to Malthus – she suggested that population growth has enabled agricultural development to occur

Assumes people knew of the techniques required by more intensive systems and used them when the population grew.

i.e…..

Demographic pressure (population density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labour (tools, better techniques).

Was she right?

Boserup argued that the changes in technology allow for improved crop strains and increased yields.

GM crops ‘Green revolution’

But….

Boserup admits overpopulation can lead to unsuitable farming practices which may degrade the land

e.g. population pressure as one of the reasons for desertification in the Sahal region (so fragile environments at risk)

Boserup’s theory based on assumption of ‘closed’ society -not the case in reality (migration)