political report september 2010: aei's monthly poll compilation
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8/7/2019 Political Report September 2010: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation
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Volume 6, Issue 8 September 2010
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Election 2010
After five weeks in which the GOP led the Democrats on the congressional ballot preference question, Gallups August
29September 5 poll shows the two parties tied at 46 percent among registered voters. Given the GOPs advantage in
turnout in midterm elections and the enthusiasm levels of Republican voters this year, the party is poised to do well in
November. Other recent polls show a GOP advantage. In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation early September poll,
52 percent say they would vote for a Republican candidate for Congress, 45 percent a Democrat. The Fox News/Opinion
Dynamics poll from the same dates shows 46 percent of registered voters preferring the Republican candidate to 37 per-
cent for a Democrat. In the late Augustearly September ABC News/Washington Postpoll, the GOP has a 13-point lead on
the generic ballot question among likely voters, 53 to 40 percent. This is the widest GOP margin in this poll since 1981.
The late August NBC News/Wall Street Journalpoll finds that 49 percent of likely voters preferred a Congress controlled by
Republicans to 40 percent one controlled by the Democrats. Less than two months before Election Day, voters may beready to reshuffle the deck, but as the data below show, they are deeply dissatisfied with both parties.
Q: Do you think . . . ?
Most of the Democrats in
Congress deserve to be re-elected 36%
Do not 56
Most of the Republicans in
Congress deserve to be re-elected 33%
Do not 58
Source: ABC/Washington Post, August-September 2010.
Q: Do you . . . ?
Favor establishing term limits on the
number of terms members of the
U.S. Congress can serve, including
your own senators and representatives 78%
Oppose 16
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, September 2010.
Q: Whether or not you agree with them, do you think . . . ?
The Democrats are offering the country
a clear direction thats different from
the Republicans 49%
Are not 47
The Republicans are offering the country
a clear direction thats different from the
Democrats 46%
Are not 47
Source: ABC/Washington Post, AugustSeptember 2010.
Q: If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you
to vote to defeat and replace every single member of
Congress, including your own representative, would
you . . . ?
Would vote to defeat and replace every
single member of Congress including
your own representative 48%
Would not 49
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.
Enthusiasm: In Gallups latest poll that shows the generic ballot even, Republicans continue to maintain a very sub-
stantial enthusiasm edge. In the poll, Republicans were twice as likely as Democrats to say they are very enthusiastic
about voting this fall, 50 to 25 percent among the registered voter sample. On September 7, the Center for the Study
of the American Electorate released its examination of the 35 states that held statewide primaries before September.
Turnout among Democratic voters was at its lowest level in 80 years. Four million more Republicans than Democrats
have voted in these primaries, the first time this has happened in midterm elections since 1930.
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Views of the Parties
Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several public figures, groups, and countries, and Id like you to rate your
feelings toward each one as . . . .
Democratic Party Republican Party Tea Party
Very positive 11% 7% 12%
Somewhat positive 25 23 16
Neutral 19 25 19
Somewhat negative 19 22 12
Very negative 24 21 24
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.
Q: When it comes to _____, which party do you think would . . . ?
Democrats would do a better job Republicans would do a better job
46% Protecting the environment 13%
40 Dealing with global warming 13
36 Dealing with energy policy 2041 Dealing with health care 29
30 Dealing with Social Security 26
33 Getting the country out of recession 30
31 Dealing with the economy 34
27 Dealing with immigration 32
28 Dealing with taxes 35
21 Dealing with Afghanistan 28
24 Reducing the federal deficit 32
24 Protecting strong moral values 32
23 Controlling government spending 37
20 Dealing with the war on terrorism 39
Note: Many respondents chose the responses both about the same or neither.Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.
Q: For each of the following, please tell me whether it . . . ?
Applies more
to the
Dem. Rep.
Party Party
Cares about the needs of people
like you 46% 39%
Agrees with you on issues you care about 44 46
Can improve economic conditions 43 46
Can bring about the kinds of change
the country needs 43 43
Shares your view of the proper size
and power of the federal govt. 40 48
Can manage the government effectively 36 44
Can protect the country from terrorism 33 47
Is patriotic 29 43
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.
Q: Do you think the . . . ?
Republicans in Democrats in
Congress would Congress would
do a better job do a better job
of dealing with of dealing with
Terrorism 55% 31%
Immigration 50 35
Federal spending 50 35
The economy 49 38
Afghanistan 45 38Jobs 46 41
Corruption in
government 38 35
Health care 43 44
The environment 31 54
Source: Gallup/USA Today, August 2010.
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Congress and the CountryGallup notes that Congresss average approval rating this year is 20 percent. That is down, the organization says, from 30 per-
cent in 2009. This years average is the lowest in any midterm election since Gallup started asking the question in 1974.
The EconomyMore polls showed that perceptions of the economys health deteriorated this summer.
Q: Do you think . . . ?
Barack Obama has a vision
of where he wants to lead
the country 77%
Republicans in Congress have a
vision of where they want to
lead the country 54
Source: CBS, August 2010.
Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several publicfigures, groups and countries, and Id like you to rate
your feelings toward each one as . . .
August 2010 January 2009
Nancy Pelosi
Positive feelings 21% 26%
Negative feelings 46 36Harry Reid
Positive feelings 11% 14%
Negative feelings 31 31
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of August 2010.
Q: Thinking about the countrys economic problems,
have we . . . ?
August January
Pretty much hit the bottom 29% 31%
There is still a ways to go
before we hit bottom 64 53
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of August 2010.
Q: Do you think . . . ?
August July
The economy is getting better 20% 25%
Getting worse 34 26
Staying about the same 44 48
Source: CBS, latest that of August 2010.
Q: Some people say the policies of former President
George W. Bush are mostly to blame for the economic
difficulties the country is having today. Others say enough
time has passed for President Barack Obamas policies to
take effect and so his policies are mostly to blame. Which
of these positions . . . ?
Comes closer to my view
The policies of George W. Bush
are mostly to blame for economic
difficulties 47%
Enough time has passed for President
Obamas policies to take effect
and so his policies are mostly to blame 32
Q: Do you think it is . . . ?
Right for the Obama administration to
continue to blame the Bush adminis-
tration for the economys condition 18%
Time for the Obama adminis-
tration to start taking
responsibility 76
Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, August 2010.
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Ideology in AmericaAmerica remains a center-right country as the data from Gallup (below) and other pollsters show. We look on the next
page at the ideological self-identification of those in college because they often lead change. In recent years, college fresh-
men have been much more likely to call themselves liberal than conservative. Still, most call themselves middle-of-the-
road. Perhaps because of dissatisfaction with the Bush presidency, or perhaps because of excitement about candidateObama, the number of self-identified liberals on campus reached a high in 2008 not seen since the early 1970s. On only
one occasion, 1980, did self-identified conservatives outnumber liberals among college freshmen.
As for the parties, Americans see them as mirror images of one another ideologically. In Pews sampling of registered
voters, 58 percent describe the Democratic Party as liberal or very liberal, and 56 percent say the GOP is conservative or
very conservative.
There is a growing perception that Obamas views and positions are too liberal. So, too, is the perception that he listens
more to liberals in his party than conservatives.
The Trends
Q: How would you describe your political views . . . ?
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of June 2010.
Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research
Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar;
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow.
Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew
Rugg, Editor.
Interns: Kathleen Nahill, Lucy Zheng.
AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS
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Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan-2009 Apr-2009 Jul-2009 Oct-2009 Jan-2010 Apr-2010
National adults
41
33
22
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Q: How would characterize your political views?
Source: The American Freshman (19702008), American Council on Education, University of California, Los Angeles.
The Parties Ideologies
Q: In general, how often do you feel . . . ?
The Republican Partys positions on The Democratic Partys positions
the issues are too conservative for you on the issues are too liberal for you
Most of the time 29% 41%
Some of the time 41 35
Hardly ever/never 28 21
Note: Sample is registered voters. Twenty-seven percent of Independents said the Republican Partys positions were too conservative for themmost of the time, while 52 said that was true some of the time. Thirty-nine percent of Independents said Democratic Party positions were tooliberal for them most of the time, while 42 percent said that was true some of the time.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, August 2010.
Q: Overall, would you describe the views and policies of each of the following as . . .
Republican Party Democratic Party Tea Party movement
Too extreme 39% 43% 47%
Generally mainstream 56 54 43
Note: In four earlier askings of this question, between 33 and 40 percent said the views and policies of the Republican Party were tooextreme. In four earlier askings, between 25 and 33 percent said the views of the Democratic Party were too extreme.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
College freshmen
Middle-of-the Road
Liberal
Conservative
Far Left Far Right
40
35
20
3
1
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Q: Now thinking about the positions of the parties these days, would you say _____ is . . . ?
Q: In general, how would you describe your political views?
Republican Democratic Tea Party Your politicalParty is Party is movement is views are
Very conservative 18% 3% 20% 9%
Conservative 38 9 21 30
Moderate 26 26 7 36
Liberal 9 32 3 16
Very liberal 4 26 2 6
Note: Based on registered voters.Source: Pew Research Center, June 2010.
Source: PSRA/Pew, June 2010.
Barack Obamas Ideology
Q: Do you think . . . ?
Barack Obamas positions on the issues are
July 2010 April 2009 November 2008
Too liberal 47% 35% 39%
About right 39 53 53
Too conservative 7 6 3
Note: Sample is registered voters. Not all askings shown.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, latest that of July 2010.
All Voters
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Very Liberal Liberal Moderate Conservative VeryConservative
DemocraticParty
Themselves RepublicanParty
Tea Partymovement
Where Voters Place Themselves and the Parties
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Q: In general, would you say that President Obamas views and proposed programs for the country are . . . ?
August 2010 March 2009
Obamas views and positions are
Too liberal 46% 36%Not liberal enough 13 5
Just about right 39 58
Note: Not all points shown. In the AugustSeptembr ABC News/Washington Postpoll, 45 percent said Obamas views on most issues are tooliberal for them, 9 percent too conservatice, and 45 percent about right.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of August 2010.
Q: Do you . . . ?
Q: (If disapprove) Do you disapprove because you think his policies and actions since he became president have been . . . ?
July 2010 Mid-December Early December
2009 2009
Approve of the way Barack
Obama is handling his job
as President 47% 54% 48%
Disapprove because his policies
and actions have been too liberal 38 34 40
Disapprove because his policies
and actions have not been
liberal enough 9 8 8
Disapprove/unsure why 3 2 2
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of July 2010.
Q: When it comes to national policy, who do you think Barack Obama is listening to . . . ?
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of June 2010.
Liberal members of his own party
Moderate members of his party
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Jan-2009
Mar-2009
May-2009
July-2009
Sep-2009
Nov-2009
Jan-2010
Mar-2010
May-2010
July-2010
Obama is listening more to
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46
34
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Another Way to Segment the Public IdeologicallyIn 1993, Gallup combined results from the two questions below to come up with a new way of segmenting the public
ideologically. If people responded that they thought government was trying to do too many things and that government
should promote traditional values, they were identified as pure conservatives. If people gave the opposite responses, theywere called pure liberals. People who said government was trying to do too many things and that government should not
promote traditional values were dubbed libertarians, and those who said government should do more and that govern-
ment should promote traditional values were deemed populists. Using this approach, the breakdown for 2009 was 31 per-
cent conservative, 23 percent libertarian, 19 percent populist, and 18 percent pure liberal.
Q: Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses.
Others think that government should do more to solve our countrys problems. Which comes closer to your own view?
Q: Some people think people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the
government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your view?
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of September 2009.
The Progressive Label
Q: As you may know, some people use the label progressive to describe their political views. From what you have
heard or read about the term, do you think . . . ?
National Responses of
Democrats Liberals
Progressive describes my
political views 12% 20% 17%
Does not 31 22 17
Unsure 54 57 57
Note: A February Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll asked people which of six groups best understands America and what it stands for.Twenty-one percent said conservatives did, 17 percent Democrats, 12 percent Republicans, 8 percent liberals, and 5 percent Progressives.Among Democrats, 7 percent said Progressives best understand America. Thirty-seven percent of Democrats said Democrats did, and 14 per-cent liberals.Source: The Gallup Organization, June 2010.
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Pure Liberal
18Populist
19
Libertarian
23
Pure Conservative31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19931994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Tea and TaxesIn most polls, views of the Tea Party have held steady in recent months. Around 15 percent of those surveyed want to let
the tax cuts expire and return rates to their previous levels.
Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? (CBS) Q: From what you know, doyou strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement, or dont you have an opinion
either way? (PSRA/Pew) Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the
Tea Party movement, or neither? (Gallup) Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several public figures and groups,
and Id like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative,
or very negative. (NBC/WSJ) Q: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? (Quinnipiac) Q: Is your
opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable, or havent you heard enough about it? (Quinnipiac) Q: Do
you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neither favorable nor unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement? (AP/Gfk)
Q: From what you know about the Tea Party movement, would you say generally agree, disagree or neither agree nor
disagree on the Tea Party movements positions on political issues? (AP/Gfk)
CBS PSRA/Pew* Gallup NBC/WSJ
Supporter/Not Agree/Disagree Supporter/Opponent Positive/Negative
29% 54% (Aug) 28% 24% (Aug) 31% 30% (June) 30% 34% (Aug)27 56 (July) 24 18 (June) 29 28 (May) 34 31 (June)
20 59 (May) 25 18 (May) 28 26 (March) 31 30 (Late May)
24 14 (March) 29 28 (March)
Quinnipiac Quinnipiac AP/Gfk AP/Gfk
Part of it/Not Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav Agree/Disagree
12% 80% (Aug/Sept) 30% 31% (Aug/Sept) 31% 34% (Aug) 34% 30% (Aug)
12 81 (July) 33 31 (July) 33 33 (June) 35 27 (Jun)
15 79 (April) 32 31 (April) 29 31 (May) 35 26 (May)
13 80 (March) 28 23 (March) 28 30 (Apr.) 33 26 (Apr)
Note: *The PSRA/Pew responses shown here are based on responses to two questions. The first asked people how much they had heard aboutthe Tea Party movement, and then those who had heard a lot or a little were asked whether they agreed with it or had no opinion either way.
Q: As you may know, the tax cuts passed into law when
George W. Bush was President are set to expire this year.
Unless a new bill is passed, federal income tax rates will
rise to the level they were at when those cuts were enacted.
Which of the following statements comes closest to your
view . . . ?
Those tax cuts should continue for
all Americans 31%
Those tax cuts should continue for families
that make less than $250,000 a year, but
taxes should rise to the previous level for
families who make more than that amount 51
Taxes should rise to the previous level for
all Americans regardless of how much
money they make 18
Note: The responses for Democrats were 13, 67, and 20 percent,respectively. For Republicans they were 50, 40 and 10 percent,respectively, and for independents, they were 34, 44, and 21 per-cent respectively.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.
Q: As you may know, the tax cuts passed during George W.
Bushs administration lowered taxes by reducing maxi-
mum income tax rate for all Americans. These tax cuts are
set to expire at the end of 2010, meaning tax rates would
go back to what they were before the Bush tax cuts.
Congress is currently considering whether to let these
tax cuts expire or extend them. Which of the following
comes closest to your own view on what action Congress
should take . . . ?
Extend the tax cuts for all Americans 49%
Let the tax cuts expire only for people
who earn more than $200,000 a year 31
Let the tax cuts expire for all Americans 15
Note: The responses for Democrats were 34, 42, and 21 percentrespectively. For Republicans they were 72, 18, and 8 percent, respec-tively, and for independents, they were 37, 29, and 18 percent.Source: Ipsos/Reuters, August 2010.
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Drill Again?Americans are paying less attention to the Gulf oil spill than they were a few weeks ago.
Q: And, on offshore drilling,
do you . . . ?Support a proposal to
allow more drilling for
oil off the coast of
the U.S. 57%
Oppose 49
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal,August 2010.
Q: As you may know, as a result of the oil
spill, the federal government banned mostoffshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico
through November. Do you think . . . ?
The federal government should
lift the ban and allow
offshore drilling to resume 47%
Keep the ban on most
offshore drill ing in place 46
Source: The Gallup Organization, August 2010.
Q: In the future, do you think . . . ?
BP should be allowed to drillfor oil in the same area
of the Gulf in which
the oil spill occurred 49%
Should not 46
Source: The Gallup Organization, August2010.
Obamas Birth and His Religion
Q: On another subject, where was Barack Obama born, as far as you know? (Those responding dont know where
asked: Is it your best guess that Barack Obama was born in the United States, or in another country?)
Barack Obama was born in the United States 77%
Was not 20
Note: Responses shown here include the response to the initial question and then to the follow-up question for those who responded dont
know. Nine percent of those who thought he was born in another country said there was solid evidence that he was born abroad. Fifteenpercent of Democrats, 18 percent of independents, and 31 percent of Republicans said he was not born in the United States.Source: ABC/Washington Post, April 2010.
Poll Potpourri
Q: Do you think . . . ?
President Obama was born in
the United States 58%
Was not 20
Dont know enough 22
Source: CBS News, April 2010.
Q: Do you think . . . ?
President Obama was definitely born
in the United States 42%
Probably born in the United States 29
Probably born in another country 16
Note: Sixty-four percent of Democrats, 37 percent of Independents,and 23 percent of Republicans said he was definitely born in the U.S.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.
Q: Now, thinking about Barack Obamas religious beliefs . . .
Do you happen to know what Barack Obamas religion is?
Is he Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, atheist,
agnostic, or something else?
Barack Obama is a
Christian Muslim
JulyAug 2010 34% 18%
March 2009 48 11
Mid-Oct 2008 51 12
Mid-Sept 48 12
June 57 12
March 47 12
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of JulyAugust 2010.
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Birthright Citizenship
Q: As you may know, the Constitution says that all children born in the United States are automatically U.S. citizens
regardless of their parents status. Would you . . . ?
Natl Responses ofDems Reps Ind
Favor a constitutional amendment
to prevent children born here from
becoming U.S. citizens unless their
parents are also citizens 49% 3% 58% 50%
Oppose 51 61 40 50
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.
Q: Under current law, any child born in the United States is a citizen of the United States. If an illegal immigrant has a
baby while living in the United States, do you think . . . ?
Natl Responses of
Dems Reps IndChild should automatically become
a U.S. citizen 47% 63% 35% 48%
Should not 50 34 63 49
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.
DrinkingGallup has been tracking peoples drinking behavior for
more than 70 years. The first time the pollster asked thequestion in 1939, 58 percent said they drank compared
to 42 percent who said they abstained.
Drink liquor, Total
wine, or beer abstainer
National response 67% 33%
Selected subgroup responses:
Postgraduate education 74 26
High school or less 58 42
$75,000 81 19
< $20,000 46 54
Attend church weekly 54 46
Seldom or never 75 25
Source: The Gallup Organization, July 2010.
Marital Bliss?
Q: Do you think . . . ?
I married the right person 95%
Did not 5
Note: Ninety-seven percent of men and 94 percent of womensaid they married the right person.Source: Marist, August 2010.
Q: Do you . . . ?
Believe in the idea of soul mates,
that is two people who are
destined to be together 66%
Do not 34
Note: Sixty-three percent of men and 69 percent of womenbelieved in the idea of soul mates.Source: Marist, August 2010.
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Smoke Gets in Your EyesIn 1987, 30 percent said they smoked. Today 22 percent give that
response. In the same period, views on the acceptance of smoking in
public places have changed. Fifty-nine percent, up from 17 percent in
1987, want to ban it totally in restaurants.
Q: What is your opinion regarding smoking in public places. First, in
____, should they . . . ?
In restaurants
2010 1987
Set aside certain areas 36% 74%
Totally ban smoking 59 17
There should be no
restrictions 4 8
In bars
2010 1987
Set aside certain areas 43% 23%Totally ban smoking 31 44
There should be no
restrictions 23 31
In workplaces
2010 1987
Set aside certain areas 52% 70%
Totally ban smoking 44 17
There should be no
restrictions 4 11
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of July 2010.
Gay Marriage
Q: Do you think . . . ?
Gays and lesbians have a constitutional right
to get married and have their marriage
recognized by law as valid 49%
No 51
Note: Asked of a half sample.Source: CNN/Opinion Research, August 2010.
DrugsQ: Which one of the following . . . ?
Illegal drugs would you consider experiencing
the effects of, on a onetime basis, if there
were no harmful physical consequences, no
criminal charges, and no addiction
Wouldnt try any 88%
LSD 5
Ecstasy 3
Heroin 1
Crystal meth 1
Crack 0
Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.
WordsQ: Of the following, which one do you
think is . . . ?
The most overused word in the
English language today
Like 23%
Awesome 21
Tweet 21
Organic 6
Hope 14
Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.
GhostsQ: Which one of the following do you
think is . . . ?
The most likely to actually exist
Ghosts 33%
U.F.O.s 30
Vampires 7
Loch Ness Monster 7
Bigfoot 7
None of the above 11
Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.
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