Contraction and Convergence Policy Recommendations for

Global Sustainable Supply of Strategic Natural Resources

Kristín Vala Ragnarsdóttir1 and Harald U. Sverdrup2

1University of Iceland, 2University of Lund

STHESCA, Krakow, Poland, July 5-7, 2011

Science, Technology, Higher Education and Society in a Conceptual World

Contraction and convergence

• North – contract their resource consumption

• South – increase their resource consumption

• Meet at the same equitable consumption rate…

• CONVERGEproject – FP7

Planetary boundariesWe have surpassed 3 of 9

Acidification of oceans

Ozone in stratosphere

Rockström et al. 2009

Cycling ofnitrogen

Cycling of phosphorous

Freshwater useLand use change

Biodiversity loss

Atmospheric aerosolloading

Chemical pollution

Climate change

Resource depletion

• Man is a geologic force!!!– We move annually 10x more than nature

– We now are in a biological extinction phase • 25% of mammals endangered

– Thousands of species become extinct every year

– Ecosystems on land and in oceans endangered

– In 30 years• We have used up 1/3 of the Earth´s resources!

– Destroyed 30% of forests, lost 25% of soil, 50% of oil, 50% of P…

– Metals and other commodities are becoming scarce

= Because of consumption

Polulation GDP Dams on rivers

Wateruse

Urbanpopulation

Paperconsumption

Bíla-samgöngur

Number of telephones

Tourism

McDonalds

Exponential growth forever?

H)

.......... . .. ... ... . .... . . ;; ; ;;;;;;;;.; . . .. .... . . . . . .......... . . . .. .... .... .... ........... . ...................... .

Molybden :: ..... --Nickel

--Platinum group

~: == :;;.:::.~y~ ~~~~f?:::; :: l --Copper ~ .... ~. --Sil ver

--Indium . --Lead

_ ············ .. ·· i --Zinc --Phosphate rock --Helium -C'il

::l

-= 100 ~

~~~ --Tantal ==- --Niobium

--Aluminium

1

1900

............. . ............. . .... . .. .... .... . .. . . . . . . . . . .. .. . ... . .. .. ... . .. .. .. .. .. .. ... . ... . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . .. . ......... .

1950 2000 2050 2100

Growth

“The greatest imperfection of mankind is that it does not understand the consequence of exponential growth”

Albert Allen Bartlett

“Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on for ever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist”

Kenneth Boulding

Seven steps toward sustainability

• Think long term

• Understand systems

• Know limits

• Protect nature

• Change commerce

• Show equity

• Support entrepreneurship

(AtKisson 2008)

• N = Nature Environment, resources, ecosystems, climate, resource use, land-use

• E = EconomyProduction, consumption, employment, investment, infrastructure, labor, risk

• S = SocietyGovernment, culture, institutions, collective concerns, education system

• W = WellbeingIndividual health, families, education, quality of life, personal development, relationships

NATUREECONOMYSOCIETYWELLBEING

Sustainability Compass: AtKisson 2008

Recycling

,//" ++-/" l ~ +~ ,~ + ~

,/ B \ r + ... Waste , Phosphate to At

,,',/ '/ + ~700d rfduction ~' I

: Pri ce

" ~\ B + : -' - l : ,; "--Market

J :,' I " ': "-..:+ B -" \.. I

Phosphate rock -B

P I -~"--"";;"'I---- ' opu ation " " + .. Consumption use rate ~ ---- + ~

Environmental deg redat ion - + ..

, Public and

political

t' l ~ R ~ + ~ , ,

, \

, , ,

, , ,

•

,\ I ,\ , \ \ , \ \

\ \ ,

"

,', ' , " '

, •

" ... \ " \ " .... \ " .........' ......... _ Sustainable

---- consumption and production policies

-

"

\ \

\ '- Clean production

and pollution prevention

----------

f

, End of pipe solutions

-- +

---------------..

Sustainable population

policy ----------------------------

.w".~'

+

, / Regul ations

and legislations

/ • •

;'

3 different methods used

• Burn-off rates

• Hubbert curve estimate

• Dynamic simulation modelssolving differentialequations for metal stocks, use rates, market-price-mechanisms, mining rates

Phosphorus burn-off rates

HAsKOLI iSLANDS

Phosphorus Oil

/ I} ~

~ 5 B 1\

F \ ~ \

~ "-

OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS 2004 Scenario

Dt---~--~---+---4----~--+---4-c

~t---+---+---+---+---+---~

"t---+---+---+---~~

.. +----+----+----+---1 ,,+---~---+----~

"" ,,,,

"" "'" "., "" "" o 1900 1950 2000 2050 2 100 III US.48 [J Europe • Russia [J Other [J M.East • Heavy etc . • Deepwater 0 Polar Ii NGL I

Rock phosphale produclion Nauru Isl~d

"'" """

~ = .04 "-! '''" ;j' NM

,.f\d' '\ '\ ;. 1000

V \>... )., .. , ~ I

"" ,.., Ig70 "" '''' "". "" "" "" . " ... .... lmlg70 Ht,1.2OO$ H.lm.l$8(1

HAsKOLI iSLANDS

Wond rock pho. phl. production

1110,00

II1O'OOI~~~~~~~~~~~J 140.00

i '''.00 i 100.00

I" "'., ... ., 40.00

"., " . "" "" lQJ5 2000 2025 ." --

c o . .,

200

g 150 e Co

~ ~ ~

100

50

o L ~

j ~ v • ?,

) 1\ • Produclion f"-o Predicled

--Hubben's curve r--1970 1980 1990 2000 20 10 2020 2030 2040

Mass flows

~~",j~----------------- ge~~! is Mines, hidden

reserves

HAsKOLI iSLANDS

Prospect

Mines known

reserves

Mining - ........ '-,....,~"'III::r---f---__ __

Industrial or urban

Business as usual, population trajectory, but with phosphorus limitation

Peak population

Mining and supply160

;..., ("j \l)

140 ;>. ;..., \l) 0-

..!i: 120 ····t····· ······!······t·····

.... - .... ...... ..... .. _ .. ······i······i······

u e .. .. '?" . . . ..... : .... . : ..

·····+······1······ ······+·····t······ ....

... . . "?" . .. . . : . . ... . .... . + .... '!'" ..

..... : ...... : ............ ":' ..... : ............ : ...... ":' .... .

- - -Mined high grade -----Mined low grade

................... ... : .....

H-

..... Mined ultralow grade --Mining Total

... ; .....

H-

----- Weathering 2 100 ("j

..= 0-

80 (Il

•.•.• "!' ••• .• : •.•••••• .•• + .... '!" .•.•••••• .• : •.•• . "!' •• ..... . : ..

.......... ". ........ ~r .•. · .•.•. ·.:.i .•.•... t.l' ...•.•. =·I~ ... ,.... .•.••.•. !........... • ••••.. " .•.•.•.•... ' .. "............ • .• : ..•. L..:.:.. .... ..:. • ·····r······!······ ...... '?' ••••• Y' ..... ...... ······t·

..... : ...... : ............ ":' ..... : ............ : ...... : .... . ······i······:······

. .. . ·····t······~······ ······+·····t······ ······l······t····· ...... 1" ..... : .....

0 ..= 0-(Il

== B == 0 .---~

60 .... + ..... H -

40 ····t····

20

o 1800

HAsKOLI iSLANDS

•• L. ~ ·u ... u ..

· t 1 ·· 'u+ .... ..; .... ~ ......... u.L .. ..; ... ~

2100

.. . ..... ·l······~······ ·····t······j······ ···· .. +·····t······ ...... ······t····· ..... ·l······~······

.. .... ... .... .... _ .. ·····t ······1······ ······+·····t······ ...... ······t·····

·····t······l······ ..... ; ..... ~ ..• . ··~··~ ·w~· .. · .... ~ .-~ .• • . + .. +_. . "'., .. ~ ... : ...... ······+·····t······ ...... : .... ·t· ...... : ...... : ..... .

...... : ...... : ..... .

..... . : .. ... : ..

..... ·l······~······

.. .. .. ·····t······j······ ······+·····t······ ······j······t····· ...... ~ ...... : .... .

·· · ··t······~· · ···· ······+·····t······ ...... ~ ...... + .... . ······1·· ····: ·····

........... : ...... ······+·····t······ ······~······t····· . ..... : ...... : .... .

... : ...... : .... . . ~r. ~i~ :~· · ~:~ :~~F : " " 1'+-+-+--1

, l , l ;u ~· ; ~· :L ~.;; ; ~·L ~­··tu:···Tut·u:·t··· . ..~

.... + ... + ..... · .. ···t····+····· ····+·····t····· ..... + .... +-. ·····t······j······ ······+·····t······ ······j······t····· ...... j ...... : .... .

- ~,

2400 2700 3000 3300

Recycling versus global population(l) -0.-0 (l) 0.-=: 0 .... --2

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

.... .. .. "? . ••• .. ••• '!' •• .. .. ... . ~ ... .. .. : .... .. .. .... .. ... : .... .... . ... .. ... . ~ .. .... .. .. .. ... .. : ... .. .. : .... .. .. .... .. ... : .... .... . ... .. ... . ~ .. . .... .. .. .... .. ... .... .. .. .... .. ... : .... .... . ... .. ... . : .. .... .. .. .. ... ... .. ... .. .. .... .. ... .... .. .. .... .. ... .. ... .... . ... .. ... . _ ..

.••. ~ . j .• ............. , .• ....

... \' .a ............ ; .... .. . ····· ·i ·+ l ........ : ... ···· .. ··t···· .. ·

.... y .. ·····r· ... : .... : ..... : ...... . . ..... :.

····t········ ..... (.. ... : .... : ..... : ...... . . ..... : .

.. +

~. . .

.:: ,.; : : ~t •

.. ~ "''' 'r'''''' ~:~~:. ·····t· ········t·

·····t· . .. ~ ..... ; .. ...... ~ .

.. + ..... ; .. . ..... ~. .. ~. .. + .... ; ..... : ..

I : ~ . ·1 · .. ·t.········ . . .......... . ..•.... ~ .............. _. . ...... : ..... . ... ~+ ' ~ . .... .. ....... .................. .. .. .. ....... .

. .... ~ ................. ~ ..... .

. .. : . ... :

-···- 1: 10% ········· 2: 26% -·_·- 3: 42% . ... ·4: 58% ----- 5: 74%

... .... +.

•••••• .j.

• ••••• .j.

...... +

...... + ~ i

..... .. + . •••••••• .j.

........ + t:t :::;; .. :.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.: .... :.:.:.:.: .. :.:. :.:.:.:.: .... :.:.:.;. \ ... ·.: .. :.· •. ~.:.:.I.: .~ ....... •. :.; .......... :.:.:.:.:.: .......... :.:.: .. : .. : .. : ..•... ;: •.. ~ .... , ............ ~ ........ -.. ;.:.= -=c -= 6=: CF

90=O,=*'=l r ··x··fl ···· ::::::i :::::::: ....... 1-i.... . ........ : ..... ~ ................ +

··· ·· l ·r ~ I~~ .... .. .... .... .... . ... .. ... . : . .. ... .. .. .. ... .. : . .

•• .j.

.. +

.. ... .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. .... .. ... : .... .... . ... .. ... . : ... ... .. .. .. ... ... .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... . .

. ••• .. •• "!' .•

···t··· ···t···

···t··· ... + ... ···t···

···t···

···· ·· ··t ··

···t···

···t··· ···t···

···t···

o 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

HAsKOLI iSLANDS

The magic hand of the market is stupid~

00 1400 ~ . . . . , . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . ..

-= Policy 0 ..., l-< generated ~ Q.,...,

J.il -g 80 pnce 1200 U Q., c:::: 8 = = . . -~,.......

..... ~~ "'e ::r-- ....... 1000 ~ ~060

..8= Price ~ Q.,~

jf[ "'e

==40 800 ::I. 0 0·_ <"b .€. Co Market

~ ~ generated ~ S 6 s = U pnce 600 = 8~20

£3 .-g- Time U l-< 0 400 cl::

2100 2400 2700 3000 3300 3600

HAsKOLI iSLANDS

The recycling amplification effect

- Mining --~~0----1~~1 I--Supply to _ The societies

The market society of the world

f----I~I /

'---------- Recycling -------------1

I """"=---'---L...i.---'----'----'----'----'----'----'----'----'-----'----'---"----'-----'-----

o 20 40 60 80 100 HAsKOLI iSLANDS Recycli ng rate

Loss --I~~

The race on resources is on.This applies to many more strategic materials, phosphorus is only one ofthem.

Procrastination and denial is futile against mass balanceand only lead to humiliation.

Exponential growth forever is a thermodynamicimpossibility.

Adaptation of society is required.

Policy Recommendations

• Strict enforcement of all activities within sustainability boundaries.

• Define critical extraction rates. Enforce them.

• Make recycling of all natural resources compulsory – aim for over 90% within 5 years

Policy recommendations

• Place a large and substantial payable deposit on every ton of resource removed from the ground, returning the deposit to the entity carrying out the recycling.

• Arrange for production quotas from a long term basis for fossil materials that already are scarce. Stop in time when EROI goes negative.

Policy recommendation

• Vision a “happy” sustainable future.

• Promote the values of equity and ethical behaviour.

• Promote the culture of “enough.”

For a Sustainability Revolution

• In addition to population

reduction, more efficient use of resources, pollution control, technological advancement etc…

• We need visioning,

networking, truth telling, learning … and loving

Meadows et al. (2004)

Thank you!

Thanks to coworker

Harald Sverdrup

University of Lund, Sweden