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Department of Political Science

Poli 379R Nuclear Proliferation and Global Politics

SYLLABUS Winter 2019

Instructor: Dr. Kerry M. Kartchner Course dates/times: TTh, 3:00pm-4:15pm Email: kkartchner@byu.edu Course Location: 121 MARB Office hours: TTh, 4:30-5:00pm or by appointment Office location: 744 SWKT Course Description: Nuclear weapons pose the greatest near-term threat to the survival of humanity. States have invested substantial resources of time and treasure in constructing vast arsenals of nuclear weapons, and large stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons. Yet, at the same time, significant economic and diplomatic resources have also been devoted to finding ways to deter the use of these weapons, in securing the existing stockpiles, in preventing their spread, and in reducing and eliminating them. This course will explain the basic features and effects of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and the threat that their proliferation poses to global and regional security; describe and assess the various diplomatic, economic, and military tools developed by states and international institutions to counter, preempt, or defend against the proliferation and use of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery; and, provide an overview of the history and impact of nuclear weapons on key regions, including Southeast Asia and the Middle East. The course concludes with a critical examination of the movement toward a world free of nuclear weapons (and other WMD), and asks whether such a world is feasible, and if so how it might be obtained.

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WINTER 2019 CLASS SCHEDULE Part I: Introduction to the Technology and Politics of Nuclear Weapons

Session 1 Tue 8 Jan Course Overview and Requirements/Overview of Nuclear Proliferation Toolkit

Session 2 Thu 10 Jan Global Politics and the Advent of Nuclear Weapons Session 3 Tue 15 Jan Nuclear Weapon Effects Session 4 Thu 17 Jan Nuclear Fuel Cycle [Guest: Phil Colton] Session 5 Tue 22 Jan Theories of Nuclear Deterrence and Stability Session 6 Thu 24 Jan Nuclear Arms Reductions and Disarmament Treaties Session 7 Tue 29 Jan Verification, Compliance, Intelligence, and Enforcement Movie Night Wed 30 Jan “Atomic Cafe”

Part II: Regimes for Countering the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Session 8 Thu 31 Jan Theories of Nuclear Proliferation Session 9 Tue 5 Feb Nuclear Nonproliferation Regimes and Tools Part I

(NPT, IAEA, NSG) Session 10 Thu 7 Feb Nuclear Nonproliferation Regimes and Tools Part II

(Wassenaar, AG, MTCR) Session 11 Tue 12 Feb Countering the Proliferation of Biological Session 12 Thu 14 Feb Countering the Proliferation of Chemical Weapons

(Syria) No class Tue 19 Feb [Monday Instruction] Session 13 Thu 21 Feb Nuclear Sanctions, and Export and Border Controls

Weapons [Paper #1 due] Session 14 Tue 26 Feb Positive and Negative Security Assurances Session 15 Thu 28 Feb Preemption and Active Defense Against Nuclear

Weapons Session 16 Tue 5 Mar Midterm Exam

Part III: Nuclear Weapons and Non-State Actors

Session 17 Thu 7 Mar Nuclear Terrorism and Non-State Actors Part I (PSI, GI) Session 18 Tue 12 Mar Review Session 19 Thu 14 Mar Nuclear Terrorism and Non-State Actors Part II (UNSCR

1540, G-8 Global Partnership) Part IV: Nuclear Proliferation and Regional Security and Stability

Session 20 Tue 19 Mar Russia, China Session 21 Thu 21 Mar India, Pakistan Session 22 Tue 26 Mar Israel

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Session 23 Thu 28 Mar Iran Session 24 Tue 2 Apr North Korea [Paper #2 due] Session 25 Thu 4 Apr Proliferation Reversals: South Africa, Brazil, South

Korea Session 26 Tue 9 Apr Over-the-Horizon Proliferation Risks: Saudi Arabia,

Egypt, Japan, South Korea [Paper #3 due] Session 27 Thu 11 Apr Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons? Session 28 Tue 16 Apr Review Session 29 Fri 19 Apr Final Exam (3-6pm 121 MARB)

Assigned Textbooks: Busch, Nathan E., and Daniel H. Joyner, eds. Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Athens: University of Georgia Press, 2009. Sagan, Scott D. and Kenneth N. Waltz. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate.

Third edition. New York: W.W. Norton, 2012. In addition, although not required textbooks, students may find the following volumes useful as further references: Debs, Alexandre, and Nuno P. Monteiro. Nuclear Politics: The Strategic Causes of

Proliferation. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2017. ISBN: 978-1107518575 Reed, Thomas C., and Danny B. Stillman. The Nuclear Express: A Political History of the Bomb

and Its Proliferation. Minneapolis, MN: Zenith Press, 2009. Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar. Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear

Biological and Chemical Threats. (either 1st or 2nd eds.) Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005.

Written Assignments: Students will, in consultation with the instructor, choose a topic from a list provided by the instructor related to a current WMD policy issue. Students will then, over the course of the semester, prepare three sequential short written papers discussing that selected WMD policy issue, designed to replicate a typical real-life policymaking process, as follows: Paper #1: Information Memorandum: This paper will introduce the topic and explain its urgency to national security. (No more than 2 pages) Paper #2: Decision Memorandum: This paper will identify, explain, and analyze at least four alternative courses of action related to that WMD policy issue. The paper will then develop the pros and cons for each alternative course of action. The student will then complete the paper by selecting one of those courses of action for recommendation as U.S. policy. (No more than 6 pages)

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Paper #3: Press Release: This short paper will take the form of a public announcement of the course of action recommended in the Decision Memorandum, explaining its benefits for U.S. foreign and defense policy. (No more than 1 page) Each paper will be prepared using a format to be provided in class. Examples will also be distributed and discussed in class. Attendance and Make-Up Policy As full participation in classroom discussions is essential to the success of this course, attendance is mandatory, except for University-authorized absences. Otherwise, the first unexcused absence will result in a one-third grade reduction in the final course grade. Subsequent unexcused absences will result in a one grade reduction for each instance. Being more than 10 minutes late will count as an unexcused absence. “Unexcused absence” is defined as an absence that was not approved in advance, except for dire emergencies and other University-approved absences. If an absence is excused, the instructor will either provide the student an opportunity to make up any exam or other assignment that contributes to the final grade or provide a satisfactory alternative by a date agreed upon by the student and instructor. On rare occasions, the instructor may have to miss a class due to administrative or academic responsibilities out of town. This will be exceedingly rare, but if it does occur, the instructor reserves the right to reschedule class at a time when the vast majority of students are available for the make-up class and will convey the material to students unable to attend the make-up during office hours. Grading: The final grade in this class will be calculated as follows:

Assignment Points Paper #1: Information Memorandum 10 Midterm Exam 20 Paper #2: Decision Memorandum 30 Paper #3: Press Release 5 Movie Night 5 Final Exam 30 Total 100

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Grading Matrix:

100 POINT SCALE

20 POINT SCALE

30 POINT SCALE

LETTER GRADE

93-100 19-20 28-30 A 90-92 18.5 27 A- 87-89 18 26 B+ 83-86 17.5 25 B 80-82 17 24 B- 77-79 16 23 C+ 73-76 15 22 C 70-72 14.5 21 C- 67-69 14 20 D+ 63-66 13 19 D 60-62 12 18 D- <59 <11 17 F

Written assignments will be graded on three criteria. The first criterion is technical merit (grammar, usage, spelling, and punctuation). The second criterion is substantive merit (the student’s grasp of the subject matter). The third criterion is exposition (how well the student communicated his/her ideas in writing). Rules regarding use of personal electronic devices in class Personal electronic devices are permitted in class for purposes of note-taking, provided they are kept in “silent mode,” and are not used in a disruptive way, or to access material unrelated to the class. Failure to abide by these rules may result in forfeiting this privilege. [See additional University Policies at the end of this syllabus]

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SCHEDULE OF READINGS AND ASSIGNMENTS PART I: ARMS CONTROL AND WMD NONPROLIFERATION Session 1 Tue 8 Jan Course Overview and Requirements/Overview of

Nuclear Nonproliferation Toolkit

o Introductions o Course overview and requirements o Global nuclear weapon stockpiles o Types of threats posed by nuclear weapons o “Nuke-speak” WMD acronyms

Session 2 Thu 10 Jan Global Politics and the Advent of Nuclear Weapons

o Impact of the advent of nuclear weapons on military strategy and global politics o Nuclear weapons and the tenets of American strategic culture o Competing schools of thought: Assured Destruction vs. Damage Limitation o The role of atomic scientists in movements for banning the bomb o Early efforts at controlling the spread of nuclear energy

Assigned Reading: Paul I. Bernstein, Weapons Of Mass Destruction: A Primer, DTRA, 2006. Available at:

https://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/dtra/wmd-primer.pdf For Further Reference: Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, Chap. 1 “Introduction,” pp. 1-32. Session 3 Tue 15 Jan Nuclear Weapon Effects

o Nuclear weapon effects (heat, blast, prompt and delayed radiation) o Fission vs. fusion devices o Hydrogen bombs o Electro-magnetic pulse o Humanitarian consequences o Delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons (ballistic and cruise missiles vs. bombs)

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Assigned Reading: Atomic Archive, “Effects of Nuclear Weapons,” Available at:

www.atomicarchive.com/Effects/index.shtml For further reference: Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Annex A: “The Physics of Nuclear Weapon Design,” pp.

340-245. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 1: “Big News: Fission Releases Neutrons!” pp.

8-11. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 2: “Los Alamos: A First, But Not The Last,” pp.

12-19. Bill O'Reilly, Killing the Rising Sun: How America Vanquished World War II Japan (New York:

Henry Holt & Company, 2017). Session 4 Thu 17 Jan Nuclear Fuel Cycle Overview (guest lecture)

o Nuclear fuel cycle o Open vs closed fuel cycle o Proliferation-resistant nuclear energy technology o Sources of Uranium and Plutonium

Assigned Reading: World Nuclear Association, “The Nuclear Fuel Cycle,” Updated March 2017, Available at:

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/introduction/nuclear-fuel-cycle-overview.aspx

Session 5 Tue 22 Jan Theories of Nuclear Deterrence and Stability

o Massive Retaliation o Mutual Assured Destruction and crisis management o Damage Limitation and escalation dominance o The strategic offense-defense relationship o Static vs. dynamic stability models

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Assigned Reading: Sagan/Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, Chapter 1: “More May

Be Better,” Kenneth N. Waltz, pp. 3-40. Sagan/Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, “Chapter 2: “More Will

Be Worse,” Scott D. Sagan, pp. 41-81. For Further Reference: Bernard Brodie, Strategy in the Missile Age (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1959),

Chapter 8, pp. 264–304 Thomas C. Schelling, The Diplomacy of Violence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966),

Chapter 2, pp. 1–34. Frank C. Zagare, “Reconciling Rationality with Deterrence: A Re-examination of the Logical

Foundations of Deterrence Theory,” Journal of Theoretical Politics, 16, 2 (2004), pp. 107–141.

P. K. Huth, “Deterrence and International Conflict: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debate,” Annual Review of Political Science, 2, (1999), pp. 25–48.

Alexander L. George, and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974).

Philip Green, Deadly Logic: The Theory of Nuclear Deterrence (Ohio State University Press, 1966).

Keith B. Payne, The Great American Gamble: Deterrence Theory and Practice from the Cold War to the Twenty-First Century (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, 2008.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (London: Oxford University Press, 1960). 1975 Reprint.

Glenn H. Snyder, Deterrence and Defense: Toward a Theory of National Security (Princeton University Press, 1961).

Session 6 Thu 24 Jan Nuclear Arms Reductions and Disarmament

Treaties

o Modern arms control negotiations o SALT I and II o INF and START Treaties o New START o The future of nuclear arms control

Assigned Reading: Amy F. Woolf, Paul K. Kerr, Mary Beth D. Nikitin, Arms Control and Nonproliferation: A

Catalog of Treaties and Agreements (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, April 13, 2016). Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33865.pdf [Read pgs. 1-20.]

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For Further Reference: Jeffrey R. Larsen, and James J. Wirtz, eds., Arms Control and Cooperative Security (Boulder:

Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2009). Session 7 Tue 29 Jan Verification, Compliance, Intelligence, and

Enforcement Issues

o Verification vs. monitoring o Intelligence assessment vs. compliance analysis o The role of the intelligence community o Challenges with enforcing adherence to international agreements

Assigned Reading: Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 5, “WMD Inspection and

Verification Regimes: Political and Technical Challenges,” by John Hart and Vitaly Fedchenko, pp. 95-117.

Text of model IAEA Safeguards Agreement (“The Structure and Content of Agreements between the Agency and States Required in Connection with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons”), at www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infirc153.pdf.

Text of model IAEA Additional Protocol, at www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/1997/infcirc540c.pdf.

Movie Night Wed 30 Jan “Atomic Cafe” PART II: COUNTERING THE PROLIFERATION OF WMD Session 8 Thu 31 Jan Theories of Nuclear Proliferation

o The technological imperative theory o Security-based theories o Domestic politics theories o Prestige-based theories o Institutionalist theories o Psychological and Socio-cultural explanations

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Assigned Reading: Scott D. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,”

International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3. (Winter, 1996-1997), pp. 54-86. Available at: https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/Why_Do_States_Build_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf

Jacques E. C. Hymans, “Theories of Nuclear Proliferation: The State of the Field,” The Nonproliferation Review, Volume 13, 2006 - Issue 3: Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: 2016. Available at: http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~hymans/Hymans2006Theories.pdf.

For Further Reference: Scott D. Sagan, "The Causes of Proliferation,” Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 14

(2011): 225-244. Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, Chap. 2 “A Strategic Theory of Proliferation,” pp. 33-60. Nuno P. Monteiro and Alexandre Debs, “The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Proliferation,” Paper

prepared for presentation at the Princeton International Relations Faculty Colloquium on October 7, 2013. Available at: https://www.princeton.edu/politics/about/file-repository/public/Monteiro-Debs-The-Strategic-Logic-of-Nuclear-Proliferation-(Princeton-draft).pdf [Also published in International Security, Vol. 39, No. 2 (Fall 2014), pp. 7–51.]

Session 9 Tue 5 Feb Nuclear Nonproliferation Regimes and Tools (NPT,

IAEA, NSG)

o Origins of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty o The role and function of the International Atomic Energy Agency o Creation of the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Assigned Reading: Sagan/Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, Chapter 3: “Waltz

Responds to Sagan,” Kenneth N. Waltz, pp. 82-111. Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 3, “The future of the NPT,”

by John Simpson, pp. 45-73. For further reference: Text of Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, at www.state.gov/t/isn/trty/16281.htm. Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) Guidelines, at www.nuclearsuppliersgroup.org Nuclear Threat Initiative, Fact Sheet on NSG at www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/nuclear-

suppliers-group-nsg/

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Session 10 Thu 7 Feb Nuclear Nonproliferation Regimes and Tools

(Wassenaar, AG, MTCR)

o Synchronization and regulation of international trade in proliferation-sensitive technologies

o The Australia Group o The success of the Missile Technology Control Regime

Assigned Reading: Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 6, “Trade Controls and

International Security,” by Scott A. Jones, Michael D. Beck, and Seema Gahlaut, pp. 118-135.

Sagan/Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, Chapter 4: “Sagan Responds to Waltz,” pp. 112-134.

For Further Reference: Debs/Moneiro, Nuclear Politics, Chapter 3 “The Historical Patterns of Nuclear

Proliferation,” pp. 61-86. Session 11 Tue 12 Feb Countering the Proliferation of Biological Weapons

o History and overview of biological weapons o Aum Shinrikyo o The Biological Weapons Convention o Dual-use technologies and challenges with verifying adherence to the biological

weapons convention Assigned Reading: Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 4, “Chemical and Biological

Weapons,” by Julian Perry Robinson, pp. 74-94. Trevor Findlay, “Verification and the BWC: Last Gasp or Signs of Life?” Arms Control Today,

September 2006, at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_09/BWCVerification For further reference: Text of Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention and status of participation, at

www.opbw.org. 2002, 2006 and 2011 BWC intersessional work programs (in “Final Documents from Fifth,

Sixth and Seventh Review Conferences”), at www.opbw.org and www.unog.ch

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Australia Group (AG) Guidelines, at www.australiagroup.net Nuclear Threat Initiative, Fact Sheet on AG at www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/australia-

group-ag/ Session 12 Thu 14 Feb Countering the Proliferation of Chemical Weapons

(Syria)

o Overview of types of chemical weapons o Historical uses of chemical weapons o The Chemical Weapons Convention o Syrian use of chemical weapons and the international response

Assigned Reading: OPCW Executive Council, “Decision: Destruction of Syrian Chemical Weapons,” at

www.opcw.org/documents-reports/executive-council/thirty-third-meeting. Human Rights Watch, Attacks on Ghouta: Analysis of Alleged Use of Chemical Weapons in

Syria (PDF). September 2013. Retrieved 14 December 2017. https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/syria_cw0913_web_1.pdf

Text of Chemical Weapons Convention and status of participation, at www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention.

For Further Reference: United Nations Mission to Investigate Alleged Uses of Chemical Weapons in the Syrian Arab

Republic, Final Report (PDF), 13 December 2013. Retrieved 14 December 2017. Available at: https://unoda-web.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/report.pdf

France-Diplomatie – Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Development, “Syria/Syrian chemical programme – National executive summary of declassified intelligence” (PDF). 3 September 2013. Retrieved 14 December 2017. Available at: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Syrian_Chemical_Programme.pdf.

U.K. Joint Intelligence Organisation. “SYRIA: REPORTED CHEMICAL WEAPONS USE” (PDF), 29 August 2013. Retrieved 14 December 2017. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/235094/Jp_115_JD_PM_Syria_Reported_Chemical_Weapon_Use_with_annex.pdf

No class Tue 19 Feb [Monday Instruction]

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Session 13 Thu 21 Feb Nuclear Sanctions, and Export and Border Controls

[Paper #1 due]

o Overview and types of sanctions as a tool of countering the proliferation of nuclear weapons

o When do sanctions work and when don’t they? o Export controls and border security measures

Assigned Reading: Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 9, Daniel Joyner

“International Legal Responses to WMD Proliferation,” pp. 175-193. For Further Reference: Etel Solingen, Sanctions, Statecraft, and Nuclear Proliferation (Cambridge University Press,

2012). Stephan Haggard, and Marcus Noland, Hard Target: Sanctions, Inducements, and the Case of

North Korea (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2017). Richard N. Haas, and Meghan L. O’Sullivan, eds., Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions,

and Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2000). Session 14 Tue 26 Feb Positive and Negative Security Assurances

o Extended deterrence o Positive security assurances o Negative security assurances

Assigned Reading: Reaching Critical Will, “A History of Negative Security Assurances,” available at:

http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/fact-sheets/critical-issues/5442-negative-security-assurances.

For Further Reference: Jeffrey W, Knopf, ed., Security Assurances and Nuclear Nonproliferation (Stanford, CA:

Stanford University Press, 2012).

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Session 15 Thu 28 Feb Preemption and Active Defense against WMD

o Political, technical, and political challenges of counterforce preemption o Active defense measures o The debate over missile defense o Emergence of a new hybrid mission: missile defeat

Assigned Reading: Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 8, “Force, Preemption, and

WMD Proliferation,” by M. Elaine Bunn, pp. 156-174. For further reference: Steven Pifer, “The Limits of U.S. Missile Defense,” The National Interest (March 30, 2015).

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-limits-of-u-s-missile-defense/ Brad Roberts, “On the Strategic Value of Ballistic Missile Defense,” Proliferation Papers, No.

50, Institut Français des Relations Internationales, June 2014). https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/pp50roberts.pdf

Session 16 Thu 5 Mar Review/Midterm Exam

Part III: Nuclear Weapons and Non-State Actors Session 17 Tue 12 Mar Nuclear Terrorism and Non-State Actors Part I

(PSI, GICNT)

o The global threat of nuclear terrorism o Which non-state actors are interested in acquiring nuclear weapons, or other WMD? o Would non-state actors use nuclear weapons if they acquired them? o If so, how would they use them, against which targets, for what ends? o How can non-state actor use of nuclear weapons be deterred or prevented? o The creation of the Proliferation Security Initiative o The Global Initiative to Counter Nuclear Terrorism

Assigned Reading: Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 1, “Dealing with

Proliferation and Terrorism Involving WMD,” by Joseph F. Pilat,” pp. 9-23. Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 2, “WMD Terrorism,” by

Charles D. Ferguson, pp. 24-42.

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Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 7, “The Proliferation Security Initiative,” by James R. Holmes and Andrew C. Winner, pp. 139-155.

World at Risk: The Report of the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, (read Executive Summary only), pp. xv-xxviii. Available at¨ https://www.absa.org/leg/WorldAtRisk.pdf

For further reference: Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 16: “Fingerprints,” pp. 268-277. Susan Koch, Proliferation Security Initiative: Origins and Evolution, Washington, NDU Press,

2012, especially p. 15-30, at http://wmdcenter.dodlive.mil/2012/06/01/proliferation-security-initiative-origins-and-evolution/

U.S. Department of State, Proliferation Security Initiative 10th Anniversary Documents, at http://www.state.gov/t.isn/c10390.htm.

Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism – Statement of Principles, Endorsers and Observers, and Complete List of Past GICNT Activities, at www.gicnt.org.

Session 18 Tue 12 Mar Review

Session 19 Thu 14 Mar Nuclear Terrorism and Non-State Actors Part II

(UNSCR 1540, G-8 Global Partnership)

o Origins of UN Security Council Resolution 1540 o Other international cooperation initiatives to counter nuclear terrorism

Assigned Reading: “UNSCR 1540: Identity, Extension, and Implementation,” Stanley Foundation Policy

Dialogue Brief, February 25-27, 2011, at www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/pdb/UNissues2011PDB.pdf.

Kelsey Davenport, UN Security Council Resolution 1540 At a Glance, Arms Control Association, August 2017. Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/1540

Text of UN Security Council Resolution 1540 (April 2004) at: http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/1540(2004)

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Part IV: Nuclear Proliferation and Regional Security and Stability Session 20 Tue 19 Mar Russia, China

o Russian nuclear strategy and nuclear weapons modernization o Russia’s approach to nuclear nonproliferation o Chinese nuclear strategy and nuclear weapons programs o Chinese approaches to nuclear nonproliferation

Assigned Reading: Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 12, “China's changing

approach to nonproliferation,” by Bates Gill, pp. 245-262. For Further Reference: Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “Soviet Union,” pp. 116-130. Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “China,” pp. 196-218. Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 15, “U.S.-Russia

Cooperative Nonproliferation,” by Elizabeth Turpen and Brian Finlay, pp. 302-324. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 7: “China Breaks The European Cartel,” pp.

84-113. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 8: “Nuclear Maturity Comes To The Little

Three” (Israel, France, China), pp. 114-131. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 12: “The Soviet Union,” pp. 186-203. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 13: “The Once-Nuclear Soviet Republics,” pp.

204-219. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 14: “China's Decade Of Nuclear Transparency,”

pp. 220-235. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Annex E: “Notes On D.B. Stillman's Ten Visits To The

Chinese Nuclear Weapon Complex, 1990-2001,” pp. 354-363. Session 21 Thu 21 Mar India, Pakistan

o India’s nuclear strategy o Pakistani nuclear modernization o Nuclear crisis management in the Kargil crisis o Strategic stability in southeast Asia

Assigned Reading: Sagan/Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, Chapter 5: “Indian and

Pakistani Nuclear Weapons: For Better or For Worse?” Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, pp. 135-174.

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Paul K. Kerr, and Mary Beth Nikitin, Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons, Congressional Research Service, August 1, 2016. Available at: https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34248.pdf

For further reference: Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “India,” pp. 238-257. Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “Pakistan,” pp. 326-356. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 15: “The Fakirs: India, Pakistan, And North

Korea,” pp. 236-267. Session 22 Tue 26 Mar Israel

o Israel’s alleged acquisition of nuclear weapons o Israeli policy toward the introduction of nuclear weapons in the Middle East o US policy toward Israel’s nuclear opacity o Perceptions of Israel’s nuclear policy among its neighboring states

Assigned Reading: Hans M. Kristensen & Robert S. Norris, “Israeli nuclear weapons, 2014,” Bulletin of the

Atomic Scientists, 70:6, 97-115. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1177/0096340214555409?src=recsys.

For Further Reference: Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “Israel,” pp. 219-237. Review Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 6: “France and Israel: The

Apprentices,” pp. 68-83. Session 23 Thu 28 Mar Iran

o Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons o Negotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action o Prospects for the JCPOA in light of US actions

Assigned Reading: Sagan/Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons, Chapter 6: “Iraq, North Korea, and Iran,” by

Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz With Mira Rapp-Hooper, pp. 175-214.

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Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 14, “The Iranian nuclear program,” by Sharon Squassoni, pp. 281-301.

White House, “Key Excerpts of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” July 14, 2015. https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/jcpoa_key_excerpts.pdf

“The Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement with Iran at a Glance,” Arms Control Association, October 2015. https://www.armscontrol.org/print/6372

For further reference: Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “Iran,” pp. 151-176. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 17: “Star And Crescent Rising,” pp. 278-301.

[Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran] For all JCPOA documents, see “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” July 14, 2015, US.

Department of State, http://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/jcpoa/ IAEA Board of Governors, “Final Assessment on Past and Present Outstanding Issues

regarding Iran’s Nuclear Programme,” 2 December 2015, at www.iaea.org. UN Security Council Resolutions 1737, 1747, 1929 and 2231 (on Iran) at

www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/index.shtml. Session 24 Tue 2 Apr North Korea [Paper #2 due]

o North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons o The Six Party Talks o Role of sanctions o Motivations behind North Korea’s nuclear weapons program o Policy options for responding to North Korea’s acquisition of nuclear weapons o Possible North Korean nuclear weapon strategies

Assigned Reading: Busch/Joyner, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction, Chapter 13, “North Korea's nuclear

weapons program to 2015: three scenarios,” by Jonathan D. Pollack, pp. 263-280. Emma Chanlett-Avery, and Mark E. Manyin, “Possible U.S. Policy Approaches to North

Korea,” Congressional Research Service, Sept. 4, 2017. (2 pgs.) Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/IF10467.pdf

Congressional Research Service, Nuclear Negotiations with North Korea: In Brief, December 4, 2017. (19 pgs.) Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R45033.pdf

IAEA Board of Governors, August 2018 Report on DPRK, available at https://www-legacy.iaea.org/About/Policy/GC/GC62/GC62Documents/English/gc62-12_en.pdf

For further reference: Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “North Korea,” pp. 277-296.

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UN Security Council Resolutions 1718, 1874, 2094, and 2311 (on North Korea), at www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/index.shtml.

Session 25 Thu 4 Apr Proliferation Reversals: South Africa, Brazil, South

Korea

o Why do some states forsake the acquisition of nuclear weapons after having acquired them, or started programs to acquire them?

o The case of South Africa’s nuclear weapons elimination o Brazil’s quest for nuclear great power status o Other instances of nuclear roll-back: Taiwan, South Korea

Assigned Reading: [TBD] For further reference: Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “Brazil,” pp. 88-115. Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “South Africa,” pp. 258-277. Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “South Korea,” pp. 377-393. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 11: “South Africa,” pp. 170-185. Sverre Lodgaard, "Rollback Experiences," Chapter 6 in Nuclear Disarmament and Non-

Proliferation: Towards a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World? (London: Routledge, 2011), pp. 115-132. www.oapen.org/download?type=document&docid=391036

H. Muller, and A. Schmidt, “The Little Known Story of De-Proliferation: Why States Give Up Nuclear Weapon Activities,” in William C. Potter, ed., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation: Vol 1: the Role of Theory (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 2010), pp. 124-158.

Rebecca K. C. Hersman and Robert Peters, “Nuclear U-Turns: Learning from South Korean and Taiwanese Rollback,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 13, No 3 (November 2006). https://wmdcenter.ndu.edu/Portals/97/Documents/Publications/Articles/Nuclear-U-Turns.pdf

Session 26 Tue 9 Apr Over-the-Horizon Proliferation Risks: Japan, Egypt,

Saudi Arabia, South Korea [Paper #3 due]

o The prospect for a “nuclear cascade” o The concept and metric of “nuclear latency” o Saudi Arabia nuclear considerations o Egyptian nuclear energy programs o Japan’s nuclear latency

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o North Korea’s nuclear weapons and South Korean public opinion Assigned Reading: [TBD] For further reference: Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “Japan,” pp. 359-376. Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “Egypt,” pp. 470-471. Debs/Monteiro, Nuclear Politics, “Saudi Arabia,” pp. 484-488. Session 27 Thu 11 Apr Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons?

o What would a world “free of nuclear weapons” look like? o How desirable is it? o How feasible is it? o How durable would it be? o Is there a cost to pursuing a declaratory policy of seeking a world free of nuclear

weapons? o The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) and the 2017

Nobel Peace Prize Assigned Reading: Sagan/Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, Chapter 7: “Is Nuclear

Zero the Best Option?” Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, pp. 215-228. George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn, Wall Street Journal op-eds,

January 4, 2007, January 15, 2008, January 19, 2010, March 7, 2011 and March 6, 2013, at www.nuclearsecurityproject.org/publications/wall-street-journal-op-eds

For further reference: Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 9: “Struggling with the Barn Door,” pp. 132-

147. Reed/Stillman, The Nuclear Express, Chapter 10: “Changes of State in the Mideast And South

Asia,” pp. 148-169. “Remarks by President Barack Obama,” Prague, April 5, 2009, at

www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-By-President-Barack-Obama-In-Prague-As-Delivered

National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction, December 2002, at http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/16092.pdf.

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Department of Defense, Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, June 2014, at www.defense.gov/pubs/DoD_Strategy_for__Countering_Weapons__ of__Mass__Destruction__dated__June__2014.pdf.

George Perkovich and James M. Acton, “Introduction,” “Chapter One: Establishing Political Conditions to Enhance the Possibility of Abolishing Nuclear Weapons,” and “What’s Next?” in Perkovich and Acton, Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, pp. 13-20, 21-48, and 307-328.

F. Miller, “Disarmament and Deterrence: A Practitioner’s View,” in Perkovich and Acton, Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, pp. 149-155.

Session 28 Tue 16 Apr Review Session 29 Fri 19 Apr Final Exam (3-6pm MARB 121)

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Additional University Policies Plagiarism While all students sign the honor code, there are still specific skills most students need to master over time in order to correctly cite sources, especially in this new age of the internet; as well as deal with the stress and strain of college life without resorting to cheating. Please know that as your professor I will notice instances of cheating on exams or plagiarizing on papers. General information about the honor code can be found at honorcode.byu.edu. Details about Academic Honesty are found at http://writingcenter.byu.edu/handouts/TheWritingProcess/plagarism.htm. Writing submitted for credit at BYU must consist of the student's own ideas presented in sentences and paragraphs of his or her own construction. The work of other writers or speakers may be included when appropriate (as in a research paper or book review), but such material must support the student's own work (not substitute for it) and must be clearly identified by appropriate introduction and punctuation and by footnoting or other standard referencing. The substitution of another person's work for the student's own or the inclusion of another person's work without adequate acknowledgment (whether done intentionally or not) is known as plagiarism. It is a violation of academic, ethical, and legal standards and can result in a failing grade not only for the paper but also for the course in which the paper is written. In extreme cases, it can justify expulsion from the University. Because of the seriousness of the possible consequences, students who wonder if their papers are within these guidelines should visit the Writing Lab or consult a faculty member who specializes in the teaching of writing or who specializes in the subject discussed in the paper. Useful books to consult on the topic include the current Harbrace College Handbook, the MLA Handbook, and James D. Lester's Writing Research Papers. Preventing & Responding to Sexual Misconduct In accordance with Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972, Brigham Young University prohibits unlawful sex discrimination against any participant in its education programs or activities. The university also prohibits sexual harassment—including sexual violence—committed by or against students, university employees, and visitors to campus. As outlined in university policy, sexual harassment, dating violence, domestic violence, sexual assault, and stalking are considered forms of "Sexual Misconduct" prohibited by the university. University policy requires all university employees in a teaching, managerial, or supervisory role to report all incidents of Sexual Misconduct that come to their attention in any way, including but not limited to face-to-face conversations, a written class assignment or paper, class discussion, email, text, or social media post. Incidents of Sexual Misconduct should be reported to the Title IX Coordinator at t9coordinator@byu.edu or (801) 422-8692. Reports may also be submitted through EthicsPoint at https://titleix.byu.edu/report or 1-888-238-1062 (24-hours a day). 21 BYU offers confidential resources for those affected by Sexual Misconduct, including the university’s Victim Advocate, as well as a number of non-confidential resources and services that may be helpful. Additional information about Title IX, the university’s Sexual Misconduct Policy, reporting

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requirements, and resources can be found at http://titleix.byu.edu or by contacting the university’s Title IX Coordinator. Students with Disabilities Brigham Young University is committed to providing a working and learning atmosphere which reasonably accommodates qualified persons with disabilities. If you have any disability which may impair your ability to complete this course successfully, please contact the University Accessibility Center (422-2767). Reasonable academic accommodations are reviewed for all students who have qualified documented disabilities. Services are coordinated with the student and instructor by the UAC office. If you need assistance or if you feel you have been unlawfully discriminated against on the basis of disability, you may seek resolution through established grievance policy and procedures. You should contact the Equal Employment Opportunity Office at 422-5895, D-282 ASB. Counseling and Psychological Services Many students at BYU struggle with stress, depression, and other emotional challenges. BYU’s office of Counseling and Psychological Services offers a variety of helpful services to deal with these very common issues. Counseling is available and free of cost for full-time students with concerns such as anxiety, depression, eating disorders, interpersonal conflict, marital problems, self-esteem, social relationships, and stress management. All of these services, consistent with the highest standards of professional psychology, are provided in a confidential manner. Counseling and Psychological Services is located at 1500 WSC and by phone at 801-422-3035. Visit their website at https://caps.byu.edu/ for more information or to make an appointment.