polaris infrastructure inc. tsx : pif · project overview 9 72 mw capacity turbines –both online...
TRANSCRIPT
POLARIS INFRASTRUCTURE INC.TSX : PIF
NOVEMBER 2017WWW.POLARISINFRASTRUCTURE.COM
IMPORTANT NOTICE
This Presentation includes general background information with respect Polaris
Infrastructure Inc. (“Polaris”) and does not purport to be complete. It has been
prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be considered a solicitation or
an offer to buy or sell any securities and should not be treated as investment advice.
The information contained in this Presentation is confidential and the property of
Polaris. It is made available strictly for the purposes referred to above. This
Presentation must not be disclosed, copied, published, reproduced or distributed in
whole or in part at any time without the prior written consent of Polaris and, by
accepting this Presentation, you agree not to do so. You also agree to return any
written copy of this Presentation to Polaris at the request of Polaris.
1
POLARIS
INFRASTRUCTURE
OVERVIEW
SNAPSHOT
3
Own and operate San Jacinto Geothermal power plant in Nicaragua
PPA with national grid – contractual price per MWh, with annual
escalator, to 2029
Recapitalized in May 2015
“Fixed” balance sheet
New Management and Board
Cash flow positive; init iated US$0.10 quarterly dividend in Q2 2016;
currently paying U$0.15 quarterly dividend
Strong organic cash flow growth expected in next 12-18 months
CAPITAL MARKETS SNAPSHOT
4
* as o f N ovember 24, 2017
S y m b o l : P I F
Price* (C$):
C$17.12
Shares Outstanding (FD):
15.7 mm
Market Cap. (C$):
269 mm
Market Cap (US$):
210 mm
Cash On Hand – Sep 30 (US$):
40.8 mm
Debt – Sep 30 (US$):
173.7 mm
Enterprise Value (US$):
343 mm
Run Rate EBITDA (US$):
~ 50 mm
EV/EBITDA:
~ 6.9x
Quarterly Dividend (US$):
$0.15
IMPROVEMENT IN FINANCIAL METRICS
5
Annualized “Run-rate” Results
2 new wells drilled* 2016 reflects annualized results once 2 new wells brought online
RECENT OPERATING RESULTS
USD million Q2/17 Per Share
Q3/17 Per Share
Revenue 15.9 15.3
EBITDA 13.6 12.9
Less:
Interest & Bank Fees
3.9 3.9
Sustaining Capex * 1.3 1.3
Discretionary CF 8.4 US$0.54/ C$0.70
7.7 US$0.49/ C$0.63
Less:
PrincipalRepayment
2.5 2.5
Free Cash Flow 5.9 US$0.38/ C$0.49
5.2 US$0.33/ C$0.43
*As estimated by management, on a long term, average basis.
6
7
Abil i ty to raise
dividend based
on both growth
in cash f low
and/or payout
rat io
Note: Q2 2017
payout rat io
was impacted
by planned
turbine
maintenance
DIVIDEND GROWTH
* Calculated using management's estimated sustaining capital expenditure
SAN JACINTO
GEOTHERMAL PLANT
PROJECT OVERVIEW
9
72 MW capacity turbines – both onl ine s ince January 2013
PPA in US$ for up to 72MW net, to 2029
US$123/MWh in 2017 with 3% per annum pr ice escalator for 6 years;
1.5% per annum thereafter ( to 2029)
11 production wel ls with productive capacity of approximately:
500-525 tph of steam and
1,500-1,700 tph of hot brine.
Production wel ls 500m to 2,500m in depth
Current steam can result in power capacity of approx. 60-65 MW
(net of ~5 MW internal consumption)
6 Injection wells re - inject the hot br ine into the reservoir to create
a “closed loop” – renewable energy in l i teral sense
Plant re-certif ied for CO 2 credits - ~250,000 tons per year avai lable
STABLE/GROWING PLANT-LEVEL EBITDA
10
* Plant-level EBITDA defined as Revenue less Direct Costs
SAN JACINTO
DRILLING PROGRAM
2017/2018 DRILLING PROGRAM
Three new productions wells
SJ 4-2 – connected in Aug 2017
SJ 12-4 – test ing in Jan 2018
SJ 12-5 – start mid-Nov 2017
One new injection well
SJ 11-2 – connected in Aug 2017
Selected infrastructure investments:
Dri l l ing pads
New separation stat ion
Well connection piping etc.
Total project budget ~$30MM
13
Pending
update….
2015/16 DRILLING PROGRAM RESULTS
14
NOTE: 2016 reflects contribution from 2 new wells (SJ 9-4 and
SJ 6-3). Results of 2017/2018 Dri l l ing Program are pending.
FUTURE GROWTH
OPTIONS
FUTURE GROWTH OPTIONS
Acquisitions / Project Development
San Jacinto geothermal project
Binary Unit
Carbon Credits
Develop Western Sector
Casita – San Cristobal Geothermal Field
Development Project
16
ACQUISITIONS/DEVELOPMENT
Grid in Central America is small/fragmented and has a
signif icant number of renewable projects
Numerous – 25-100 MW projects in the region
Large power companies and infrastructure funds not act ive
Owners are small companies and / or high net worth
individuals
Implication is that:
Good targets for acquisit ions without signif icant competit ion
Much higher IRR projects avai lable to develop (i .e. 12-18%
IRR vs. 8-12% in North America)
17
BINARY UNIT
Separate generating unit – generates power from hot geothermal f lu ids (brine) before reinject ing
Low r isk means of generating addit ional power
No exploration risk
Low technical r isk
Competit ive nature of OEM market wi l l result in attract ive pricing
Design f inal ized and EPC quotes received
Total cost of approximately $30 mil l ion
Est imate addit ional 8 – 10 MW
Equates to approx. $6 – 8 mil l ion addit ional cash f low
Approx. 4-5 year payback
18
NEAR TERM GROWTH IMPACT
19
Polaris has the capital to s ignif icantly grow free cash f low in next
6-24 months
Dri l l ing provides upside …with an outcome most l ikely at the
“midpoint ”…i.e. $7 -8 mil l ion in free cash f low
Increase in Cash Flow (% Increase)
De-bottleneck Line Capacity $1 - 2 mm (3% to 7%)
Two Production Wells $0 - 15 mm (0% to 50%)
Corporate Development or Binary Unit $5 - 9 mm (17% to 30%)
Total (net) $6 - 26 mm (20% to 87%)
20
NICARAGUA OVERVIEW
Daniel Ortega President – elected in 2007
▪ Ortega won national election in November 2016 – 5 more years of stability
Highest growth rate and safest country in central America
“Left Leaning ” pol it ical ly but open economical ly
Polaris project is a showcase project for the country
One of the largest fore ign investments in country to date
Renewable energy
World Bank and other g lobal development banks as lenders
RESEARCH ANALYST COVERAGE
21
* as of Nov 14, 2017
SAN JACINTO PHOTOS
22