pnnl sa-48454 iran_altenergy_pnwcgs_feb1306.ppt alternative energy economics for iran options...
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PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Alternative Energy Economics for Iran Options Definition and Evaluation
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Scope of Current Analysis
• I – Market vs. indigenous fuel supply options
• II – Iranian energy resource review
• III – Cost of selected nuclear facilities
• IV – Alternative investments - natural gas sector
• V – Alternative investments - refining sector
• VI – Conclusions of analysis
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Background
• June 14, 2003 – Letter to U.K parliament from Ambassador of Iran– Iran concludes its need for 7000 MWe via nuclear power by
2020.
• Based on VVER-1000 at Bushehr, assume additional (6) power reactors of the same type (total of 7)
• IAEA BOG Report GOV/2003/75 - chronology in which Iran has taken steps to possess a front end fuel cycle
• Ongoing EU3/Iran negotiations to persuade Iran to discontinue uranium processing and enrichment
• Suspension and resumption of enrichment, referral to UN
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Section I
Nuclear Fuel Resource Constraints and Comparison of Market vs. Indigenous Nuclear
Fuel Supply Options
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Typical Annual Material Inventory in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle for a VVER-1000 Reactor1
• Mining – 405,000 tons of uranium ore @ 553 ppm (0.05%)2
• Milling – 262.5 tons of U3O8 , (223 tons natural U)
• Conversion - 328 tons UF6 , (222 tons natural U)
• Enrichment - 32.8 tons UF6 , (22 tons 4.4% LEU)
• Fuel Fabrication – 25 tons UO2 , (22 tons 4.4% LEU)
• Assumes enrichment 4.4%, 75 ton initial UO2 fuel load, 36 month fuel residence time3
1 – Based on material balances from The Economics of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, OECD 1994, and Nuclear Energy Economics and Policy Analysis, 3/29/04, MIT, and The Future of Nuclear Power: An Interdisciplinary Study, MIT.
3 – VVER-1000 data from Rosenergoatom http://eng.rosatom.ru
Results shown include 0.5% losses per stage and have been rounded for ease of display
2 – Ore data from Atomic Energy Organization of Iran – www.aeoi.org.ir
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Iranian Uranium Resources1
Production Method <USD 40/kgU <USD 80/kgU <USD 130/kgU
Unspecified 0 0 491
Total 0 0 491
Production Method <USD 40/kgU <USD 80/kgU <USD 130/kgU
Unspecified 0 0 936
Total 0 0 936
Cost Ranges
<USD 80/kgU <USD 130/kgU
0 3350
Cost RangesTotal
<USD 130/kgU Unassigned
4,500 6,000 10,500
Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) 2
Estimated Additional Resources (EAR) – Category II Speculative Resources
1 – From Uranium 2003: Resources, Production and Demand, NEA No. 5291, OECD 2004. 2 – In situ resources
(in metric tons natural U )
Estimated Additional Resources (EAR) – Category I 2
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Fuel Usage Scenarios
Known Conventional
ResourcesTotal Resources
Number of Operational Reactors Years of Operation Years of Operation
1 6.49 69.44
2 3.24 34.72
3 2.16 23.15
4 1.62 17.36
5 1.30 13.89
6 1.08 11.57
7 0.93 9.92
• Known Conventional Resources (RAR + EAR-I) = 1,427 tons U
• Undiscovered Conventional Resources (EAR-II + SR) = 13,850 tons U
• Total Resources = 15,277 tons U
• Assume 1000MW-VVER burns 22 tons of LEU annually and all reactors come online simultaneously
– Known Conventional Resources w/7 reactors = less than 1 year
– Total Resources w/7 reactors = less than 10 years
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Fuel Resource Constraints 2006-2026
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026
Year
Ura
niu
m (
met
ric
ton
s o
f L
EU
fu
el)
CumulativeFuel Use
Complete Construction - 7 Total Reactors -2020
Total Uranium Exhausted
1 R
eact
or
2 R
eact
ors
3 R
eact
ors
4 R
eact
ors
5 R
eact
ors
6 R
eact
orsKnown Uranium
Exhausted•Known uranium will be exhausted by 2010 with only two operational reactors.
•Total uranium resources will be depleted by 2023 with all reactors far short of their 40 year design lifetime.
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Cost of Recovering All Uranium Resources Vs. Market Price
Known Conventional Resources
Undiscovered Conventional Resources
RAR EAR-I EAR-II SRS Total
Low $/kg ($80) $39.28M $74.88M $268.00M $840.00M $1.22B
High $/kg ($130) $63.83M $121.68M $435.50M $1.36B $1.98B
Market $/kg ($46.42) $24.35M $46.43M $166.16M $520.80M $757.74M
Purchasing uranium from the market would provide a total cost savings between $460 million and $1.22 billion based on the cost (high/low) of uranium recovery.
1 – From UX Consulting Company L.L.C. as of Mar 28,, 2005
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Estimated Annual Fuel Costs – 7000 MWe
• Iran could save $130 - $240 million per year by purchasing fuel from abroad.
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Market Fuel Costs Indigenous FuelCosts (Low)
Indigenous FuelCosts (High)
Mill
ions o
f D
olla
rs/Y
ear
Fuel Fabrication
Enrichment (4.4%)
Conversion to UF6
U308
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Section II
Iranian Energy Resources
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Iran – 2004 Depth of Resources
• Oil– 125.8 billion barrels proven reserves
– Roughly 10% of world’s total
• Natural Gas– 940 trillion cubic feet proven natural gas reserves
– World’s 2nd largest supply, 15.5% world total
• Electric Power– 31 GW installed capacity (36 GW expected 2005)
– 75% Natural Gas, 7% Hydro, 18% Oil
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Iran Energy Reserves by Type
Energy equivalence used = 1070 BTU/ft3 natural gas, 5.8e6 BTU/barrel oil, 11,000 BTU/lb. coal, 4.41e11 BTU/mton U-235. Source Nuclear Engineering: Theory and Technology of Commercial Nuclear Power – Knief. Energy data from March 2005 U.S. EIA Iran Country Analysis Brief.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Natural Gas Oil Coal Nuclear
En
erg
y (
Qu
ad
rill
ion
10
^1
5 B
TU
s)
1005.8
729.6
6.741.5
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Natural Gas Nuclear (KnownConventionalResources)
Nuclear (TotalResources)
Res
erve
s/P
rod
uct
ion
Rat
io (
Yea
rs)
Iran Reserves to Production Ratios
88.4
220.0
0.9 9.9
Note 1 - Oil production 2004, gross natural gas production 2002 from EIA
Note 2 - Nuclear fuel production based on requirements of 7000 MW nuclear with a once through fuel cycle
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Section III
Review and Capital Cost Determination of Selected Nuclear Facilities
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Iranian Nuclear Facilities1
Note 1 – From IAEA GOV/2003/75
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Facilities of Interest
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Nuclear Facility Information
• Natanz Enrichment Facility– 54,000 centrifuges
– Estimated P2 SWU/centrifuge facility is nearly large enough to support two VVER-1000 nuclear fuel loads per year
– Estimated P1 SWU/centrifuge facility support only one VVER-1000
– Cost estimates from American Centrifuge, National Enrichment Facility, Georges Besse II, and Resende
– Estimated cost $260 million based on P2 technology. $187 million - P1.
• Esfahan Conversion Facility (UCF)– Conversion UOC to UF6, enriched UF6 to UO2, depleted UF6 to UF4,
conversion of enriched uranium metal and depleted uranium metal – total 5 lines
– Estimated cost $30 million
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Scaled Cost per SWU – Natanz Estimate
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00
Plant Scale (million SWU/yr)
Unit
Co
st ($/
SW
U)
NEF
ACGBII
P1 Design
P2 Design
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Nuclear Facilities – (continued)
• Arak Nuclear Complex– 40 MW Iran Nuclear Research Reactor (IR-40) similar to India’s 40-MW
CIRUS built in 1960; new comparable research reactors $100-$200 Million
– Initial Heavy Water requirement 85,000 kg @ $254/kg = $21.6 million
– Heavy Water Production plant (16 tons annually), based on unit cost of operating heavy water plants in India – approximately $10-$25 million
– Separation facilities based on GA contract with Thailand - $25 million and CRL manipulator prices
– Arak investment conservative $200 million
• Esfahan Fuel Manufacturing Plant (FMP)– Designed with preliminary annual throughput for 40 MTU/yr and planned
for 140 MTU/yr
– Designed for both light water reactor and heavy water reactor fuels
– Estimated investment $30 - $80 million
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
• Saghand Mine and Ardakan Milling Plant– 1,550,000 tons of ore reserve @ avg. 553 ppm
– 120,000 tons of ore annually, approx. 50 tons U
– Estimated investment $39 million
• Gchine Mine and associated milling plant– Variable, low grade ore
– Design capacity of 21 ton U annually
– Estimated investment $19 million
• Total selected facility capital investment ~ $600 Million
Nuclear Facilities – (continued)
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Section IV
Evaluation of Alternative Investments in the Natural Gas Sector
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Natural Gas Flare/Vent Rates
Data from U.S. EIA International Energy Annual 2002, Table 4.1
Annual Flare/Vent Rates of Various Middle East Countries, 2002
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
SaudiArabia
Qatar U.A.E. Syria Kuwait Oman Iran
Fla
re/V
ent
Ra
te,
% o
f G
ross
Pro
du
ctio
n
World Average 2.26%
Middle East Avg. 3.26%
North American Average 0.53%
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Natural Gas Data
• World Average (2002)1 = 2.26%• Iran (2002)2 = 6.78%• Assume Iran moved to world average (2.26%)
– Save 193 billion ft3 annually– Equivalent to:
- $1.60 billion (Market price 7.78$/MMBtu)3
- 2783 MWe (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine)4
• Assume Iran moved to North American Average (0.53%)– Save 267 billion ft3 annually– Equivalent to:
- $2.22 billion (Market price 7.78$/MMBtu)3
- 3850 MWe (Combine Cycle Gas Turbine)4
1,2 – Data From U.S. EIA International Energy Annual 2002, Table 4.1 3 – Market Price U.S. EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update 7/13/05
4 – CCTG 7200 BTU/kw-hr heat rate, 85% capacity factor, 1070 BTU/ft3 natural gas
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Natural Gas Infrastructure and Growth
Map Data from Collection of University of Texas Maps
Population Data from Statistical Centre of Iran
• Three cities with the highest growth rates over the last 20 years are closest to major gas refinery and treatment facilities
– Mashhad
– Ahvaz
– Shiraz
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Investment Scenario 1
Investment Scenario 2
Scenario 1 (yellow circle) Scenario 2 (blue circle)
$1.00B Investment $617M Investment1 - 300 Mmcf/d Gas 1 – 150 Mmcf/d Gas Processing Plant Processing Plant2 Power Plants (1120 MWe) 1 Power Plant (930 MWe)150 Miles of New Pipeline 50 Miles of New Pipeline19.4% of Recoverable Gas 16.1% of Recoverable Gas
Investment Scenarios Infrastructure
Notional Investment ScenariosNotional Investment Scenarios
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Project Year
$ U
.S. (
mill
ion)
Payback Period ≈ 4.59 Yrs
Investment Cash Flow Model
1- Data from World Energy.org, based on 1999 price and subsidy, average of all sectors 2 - Using February 05 exchange rate 1USD = 8863 IRR
• Construction outlays for 5 year period = $1.0 Billion• Net revenues based on price of electricity = 315 Rials/kwh (3.56¢/kwh)1,2 • Annual O&M costs of 3.5% capital expenditure• Project Lifetime (30 years) IRR = 18%• Payback Period, i @ 7% = 4.59 years
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Section V
Evaluation of Alternative Investments in Oil Refining and Gasoline Production
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Iran – 2002 Energy Trade Balance1
1 – Energy Information Administration, 2002 – Iran Country Energy Data report
Petroleum Production Import Export Consumption
(Thousand Barrels per Day) Crude Oil 3444.30 2093.00 1350.34
(Thousand Barrels per Day) Gasoline 242.44 65.61 296.26
Natural Gas
Gross Production
Vented/Flared and Reinjected Dry Imports Dry Exports Dry
Consumption
(Billion Cubic Feet) 4273.12 289.58 + 1059.45 173.04 23.66 2478.41
Coal Production Import Export Consumption
(Thousand Short Tons) Hard Coal 1245 720 25 1940
Electricity Capacity (Million kw)
Generation (Billion kwh)
Consumption (Billion kwh)
Losses (Billion kwh)
Thermal 31.419 124.714
Hydroelectric 2.803 7.970
TOTAL 34.222 132.684 123.554 9.288
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Iranian Gasoline Imports
• In 2001, Iran was importing 8.5 million liters of gasoline per day– Gasoline represented more than 85.5% of total petroleum imports
• In 2004, Iran was importing 40% of their daily gasoline needs, or 22 million liters of gasoline per day1
• EIA estimates Iran importing 160,000 bpd in 2004 or approximately 25 million liters per day2
• Government paid 2800 rials per liter ($1.19/gal) in 20041
– Approximately $2.5 – $3.0 billion for 20042
• Annual demand increasing at around 9% per year2
• Gasoline imports could potentially cost Iran $4.5 billion for 20053
1- Iran Daily News – 9/28/04, 12/16/04, 2- EIA Country Analysis, 3 - Iran News – 5/10/05
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Iranian Refinery Capacity
• Current Iranian refining capacity is 1.47 million BPD– Nine refineries
– 240,000 BPD gasoline capacity
– Consuming 400,000 BPD gasoline
• At current gasoline refining yields (Iran ~ 16% per barrel), a nearly 1,000,000 BPD capacity is required to eliminate 160,000 BPD of gasoline imports.
• With 46.7% (Feb. ‘05 U.S. refinery average) yield of gasoline per barrel of oil, require approximately 350,000 BPD additional refinery capacity
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Refinery Output Comparison
Iranian Refinery Yield Per Barrel
3%9%
16%
1%
12%
31%
28%
Gasoline
Jet Fuel
Kerosene
Distillate
Residual
LPG's
Unspecified
U.S. Refinery Yield Per Barrel
0.3%8.6%
46.9%
21.2%
3.8%
15.5%
3.8%
Gasoline
Jet Fuel
Kerosene
Distillate
Residual
LPG's
Unspecified
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Refinery Cost Basis
Refinery Capacity Estimated Cost
1. Dung Quat, Vietnam 130,000 BPD $1.5 B
2. U.S. NewCon Est, 150,000 BPD $2.4 B
3. Gujarat, India 210 – 240,000 BPD $2.26 B
4. Basra, Iraq 250 – 300,000 BPD $2.0 B
5. Yanbu, Saudi Arabia 400,000 BPD $4-5 B
6. KPC, Kuwait 450 – 600,000 BPD $5.0 B
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
130 150 225 275 400 525
Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Pri
ce
($
/Ba
rre
l p
er
Da
y)
Avg. w/ U.S. $10,938
Avg. w/o U.S. $9925
1
2
3
4
5
6
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Cost Sensitivity to Refinery Gasoline Yield
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Ref
iner
y To
tal C
ost (
$ B
illio
ns) U.S. price -
50% yield
Middle Eastprice - 20%yield
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Export = 197
Gasoline Imports = 160.00
Crude Production
Refining
2229
3724
1500
Export @ $34.62/bl
Consumption = 1471
$ 28.16 B
- $ 2.91 B
$ 2.84 B
Net Revenue = $28.01 B
Approx. Iran Petroleum Balance - 2004
Refined Products
(Changes from 2001)
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Export = 1037
Gasoline Imports = 0
Crude Production
Refining
1229
3724
2500
Consumption = 1471
$ 15.53 B
$ 14.07 B
Net Revenue = $29.51 B
Iran Petroleum Balance 2004 – With Low Yield Refinery, No Gasoline Imports
Refined Products
Export @ $34.62/bl
(Changes from baseline 2004)
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Section VI
Conclusions of Analysis
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Conclusions of Analysis
• Iran’s uranium resource is not commensurate with the scale of its declared nuclear program.
• Cost of indigenous uranium and fuel production appear substantially greater than market sources.
• Front-end (uranium and fuel facilities) do not provide independence.
• Indigenous non-nuclear energy resources represent centuries of potential energy supply at current R/P ratios.
• Cost of selected front-end nuclear facilities is at least $600 million dollars.
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Conclusions of Analysis (2)
• Several plausible gas sector projects could be pursued for the cost of the front–end nuclear facility investment.
• Gas sector projects involving natural gas treatment plants, CCGT power plants, and supporting pipeline show very attractive rates of return at 18% (23%) over 30 years and a 4.6 (3.2) year payback periods.
• Projects which add refinery capacity increase refined product exports, generating billion dollars per year in net revenue.
• Approximating the gasoline yield fraction of Iran results in a more attractive refinery project assuming all additional refined products can be exported.
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Backup & Technical Detail
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Nuclear Power Intensity as a Function of Energy Resource Endowment - typical values
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2
Natural Energy Endowment per GDP (quads/billion USD)
Nu
cle
ar
Cap
acity p
er
GD
P (G
We
insta
lled
/bill
ion
US
D)
U.S.
France
Canada
BrazilU.K.
JapanGermany
Sweden
South KoreaBelgium
Finland
Taiwan
China
PolandIndonesiaEgyptNorway
Canada
ArgentinaItaly Turkey
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Nuclear Power Intensity as a Function of Energy Resource Endowment
– Iran’s proposed program relative to rest of world
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 10 20 30 40
Natural Energy Endowment per GDP (quads/billion USD)
Nu
clea
r C
apac
ity p
er G
DP
(GW
e in
stal
led
/bill
ion
US
D)
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Russia
Iran - 20 reactors
Iran - 7 reactors
U.S.
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Relationship Between Ore Grade and Cost
• Due to ore grade of 553 ppm (~0.5 kg/ton), cost of uranium recovery unlikely in the $80/kg range and more likely in the $130/kg range
• Fractional Recovery based on mine type1
- Saghand ≈ 77% (underground)
- Gchine ≈ 81% (open-pit)
Chart from Economics of Uranium Ore Processing Operations, OECD 1983
μ = fractional mill recovery
1 – From Uranium 2003: Resources, Production, and Demand, OECD. Pg. 265
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Potential Number of Cores
• Known Conventional Resources (RAR + EAR-I) = 1,427 tons U
• Undiscovered Conventional Resources (EAR-II + SR) = 13,850 tons U
• Total Resources = 15,277 tons U
• 1000MW-VVER initial core fuel loading is 66 tons of LEU with fuel residence of 3 years
• Over 90% of potential cores based on Undiscovered Conventional Resources
Number of Cores Available
Years of Operation
Known Conventional Resources (RAR + EAR-I) 2.16 6.48
Undiscovered Conventional Resources (EAR-II + SR) 20.99 62.97
Total Resources 23.15 69.45
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
100,000.00 3,000,000.00 3,500,000.00 7,500,000.00
SWU/yr
Co
st
($)/
SW
U
Resende
NEF AC GBII
Capital Cost of SWU – Existing/Planned Facilities
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Iranian Major Natural Gas Infrastructure
Map Data from Collection of University of Texas Maps
Population Data from Statistical Centre of Iran
• Six of the most populous cities have direct access to natural gas pipelines
– Tehran
– Mashhad
– Esfahan
– Shiraz
– Tabriz
– Ahvaz
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Investment Cash Flow Model (2)
• Construction outlays for 5 year period = $617 Million• Net revenues based on price of electricity = 315 Rials/kwh (3.56¢/kwh)1,2 • Annual O&M costs of 3.5% capital expenditure• Project Lifetime (30 years) IRR = 23%• Payback Period, i @ 7% = 3.15 years
-200
-150-100
-50
050
100
150200
250
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Project Year
$ U
.S. (
mill
ion
)
Payback Period ≈ 3.15 Yrs
1- Data from World Energy.org, based on 1999 price and subsidy, average of all sectors 2 - Using February 05 exchange rate 1USD = 8863 IRR
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Sensitivity of IRR and Payback Period
• IRR and payback period calculated by assuming CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) plants would supply base load instead of nuclear power plants @ 85% capacity factor
• Due to quick start up and shut down rates, gas turbine power plants can be used to supply energy at a variety of times based on demand
• Therefore a variety of capacity factors exist for CCGTs and would effect IRR and payback period of investment
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
20.00%
Capacity Factor
IRR
(30
year
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Payb
ack
Perio
d (y
ears
)
IRR
Payback Period
Sensitivity of IRR and Payback Period
Lower bound constraint @ 64% determined by load curve
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Export = 250
Gasoline Imports = 53
Crude Production
Refining
2229
3724
1500
Export @ $22.73/bl
Consumption = 1330
$ 18.49 B
- $ 600 M
$ 1.98 B
Net Revenue = $19.81 B
Iran Petroleum Balance - 2001
Refined Products
PNNL SA-48454 Iran_Altenergy_PNWCGS_Feb1306.ppt
Export = 383
Gasoline Imports = 0
Crude Production
Refining
1879
3724
1849
Consumption = 1471
$ 23.74 B
$ 5.38 B
Net Revenue = $29.03 B
Iran Petroleum Balance 2004 – With High Yield Refinery, No Gasoline Imports
Refined Products
Export @ $34.62/bl
(Changes from baseline 2004)