pminj international project management day november 1, 2018 · 2019-02-26 · international project...
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© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 1Nov 1, 2018
PMINJ
International Project Management Day
November 1, 2018
Risk-based innovation
Dr David Hillson, The Risk Doctor
PMI Fellow, PMP, HonFAPM, CFIRM
www.risk-doctor.com
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 2Nov 1, 2018
Risk-based Innovation
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 3Nov 1, 2018
Three key questions
What is risk?
What is innovation?
What is risk-based innovation?
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 4Nov 1, 2018
Risk = Uncertainty
True or False ?
Risk = Uncertainty that matters
What is risk?
≠
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 5Nov 1, 2018
Two-dimensional:
1. uncertainty
2. effect on objectives
“impact”
“probability”
What is risk?
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 6Nov 1, 2018
The impact dimension
What kind of impact matters?
Positive as well as negative
Opportunities as well as threats
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 7Nov 1, 2018
What is risk?
“An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a effect on
an objective”
PMBoK® Guide, Chapter 11
Risk connects uncertainty with objectives
Risk includes both opportunities & threats
positive or negative
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 8Nov 1, 2018
What is innovation?
Drucker: “Innovation is the instrument of entrepreneurs.”
Levitt: “Creativity means thinking up new things. Innovation means doing them.”
Anon: “Innovation is what happens when all else fails.”
IDEA
CREATIVITY
NEED
INNOVATION
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 9Nov 1, 2018
What is innovation?
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 10Nov 1, 2018
A complex blend of both success & failure
Heathrow Terminal 5
3M Post-It sticky notes
Sydney Opera House
What is innovation?
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 11Nov 1, 2018
The Innovation Ecocycle
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
[David Hurst, 1995]
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 12Nov 1, 2018
The Innovation Ecocycle
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 13Nov 1, 2018
The Innovation Ecocycle
Alternates between innovation & development
Changing focus:Support innovation – maximise time in +ve loop
Speed return to innovation – minimise time in –ve loop
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
Need a process to support both loops
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 14Nov 1, 2018
Risk management addresses
both threats & opportunitiesin a single integrated process
Can risk management support innovation?
“The systematic process of identifying, analysing and responding to risk. It includes
maximising … positive events andminimising … adverse events.”
PMBoK® Guide, Chapter 11
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 15Nov 1, 2018
Risk-based innovation
Implementation
and review
Initiation /
Establish context
Risk
identification
Qualitative risk
assessment
Quantitative risk
analysis
Risk response
planning
FINDING OPPORTUNITIES
PICKING WINNERS
MAKING IT HAPPEN NOT ONLY
FOR THREATS
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 16Nov 1, 2018
1. FINDING OPPORTUNITIES:What are they?
Opportunity is positive risk
Not a benefit“Opportunity to succeed”
Not a response“Opportunity to act”
Not scope creep“Opportunity to do something else”
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 17Nov 1, 2018
Finding opportunities
Opportunities & threats are the same
“Uncertainty that matters”
Differ in sign of impact
Opportunities positive, threats negative
Use same techniques to identify?
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 18Nov 1, 2018
Problems with common techniques
Threat-focused
Habit
Familiarity
Technique limitations
Use “two-dimensional techniques”
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 19Nov 1, 2018
Example 2D risk identification techniques
Fault/Benefit Tree Analysis
“Yes, but how…?”
Outcomes, Drivers, Uncertainties
WS
O T
SWOT AnalysisStructured brainstorm + and –
S O
W T
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 20Nov 1, 2018
VHI
HI
MED
LO
VLO
POSITIVE IMPACT
(Opportunities)
VHI HI MED LO VLO
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
NEGATIVE IMPACT
(Threats)
VHI
HI
MED
LO
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
2. PICKING WINNERS:Prioritising opportunities
1
QUICK WINS:EASY TO GET &BIG BENEFIT
3
CONSIDER IMPROVING:EASY BUT
LOWER BENEFIT
2
WORTH EXPLORING:HARDER TO GET
BUT BIG BENEFIT
4
DON’TBOTHER!
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 21Nov 1, 2018
Avoid
Reduce
Transfer
Accept
THREAT GENERIC STRATEGY OPPORTUNITY
ELIMINATE UNCERTAINTY
CHANGE SIZE
INVOLVE OTHERS
TAKE THE RISK
Exploit
Enhance
Share
Accept
3. MAKING IT HAPPEN:Responding to opportunities
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 22Nov 1, 2018
Final thoughts
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 23Nov 1, 2018
Innovation projects
Innovation projects follow Innovation Ecocycle
+ve loop: Innovate, Consolidate, Explore, [Barrier]
–ve loop: Reflect, Learn, Persist, [Breakthrough]
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
Successful innovation projects must:
Maximise time in +ve loop
Minimise time in –ve loop
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 24Nov 1, 2018
Risk management
Risk management is forward-looking radar
… find potential solutions
“Help things go right”
… prevent potential problems
“Stop things going wrong”
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 25Nov 1, 2018
Risk-based innovation
Risk management helps innovation projects
Find innovation opportunities
Pick innovation winners
Make innovation happen
[as well as minimising innovation threats!]
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 26Nov 1, 2018
Thank youAny questions?
© 2010-17 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership 27Nov 1, 2018
For further information
Dr David HillsonThe Risk Doctor Partnership
+44(0)7717.665222
www.risk-doctor.com
YouTube.com/RiskDoctorVideo