playing against a stacked deck: using poker theory to better manage wc claims
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Playing Against a Stacked Deck: Using Poker Theory to Better Manage WC Claims. Presented By: James A. Moran. When a man with money meets a man with experience, the man with experience leaves with money and the man with money leaves with experience. - Anonymous. Game Theory. Agenda. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Playing Against a Stacked Deck:Using Poker Theory to Better
Manage WC Claims
Presented By:
James A. Moran
• When a man with money meets a man with experience, the man with experience leaves with money and the man with money leaves with experience.
- Anonymous
Game Theory
Agenda
Clubs: Controlling the Opposition
Spades: Digging for Information
Diamonds: Financial Considerations
Hearts: The Art of Persuasion
Clubs: Controlling the Opposition
• OJ VIDEO
Influence Tactics
Heuristics
Reference Point Effects
Diminishing Marginal Losses and Gains
Delivering the News
Loss Aversion
Escalation of Commitment
Irrational Reciprocity
Spades: Digging for Information
Tells, or Seeing into Your Opponent’s Soul
Blocking Techniques
If All Else Fails…
Diamonds: Financial Considerations
The Sunk Cost Fallacy
Expected Value
Expected Value
(% Probability1) ($ Payoff1) = Value1
(% Probability2) ($ Payoff2) = + Value2
Expected Value
(.5) ($100) = $50
(.5) ($0) = + $0
$50
Expected Value
.25 x $250,000 = $62,500
.25 x $50,000 = $12,500
.25 x $20,000 = $5,000
.25 x $1 = + $0.25
$80,000.25
Expected Value
(40%) ($50,000) (70%) = $14,000
(30%) ($150,000) (70%) = $31,500
(30%) ($300,000) (70%) = $63,000
(40%) ($100,000) (70%) = $28,000
(60%) ($0) (70%) = $0
(70%) ($100,000) (70%) = $49,000
(30%) ($0) (70%) = + $0
$185,500
Hearts: The Art of Persuasion
Conjunction Fallacy
Questions?
