platou - net
TRANSCRIPT
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Monthly year‐on‐year growth, tanker fleet Analytical topic of the month:
Page 2
Analyses and comments………………………….. 2
World economy and world shipping ……….. 3
Newbuilding ……………………………………………. 4Monthly year‐on‐year growth, dry bulk fleet
Tankers | Freight market……………………….. 5
Tankers | Sale and purchase………………….. 6
Bulk carriers | Freight market………………… 7
Bulk carriers | Sale and purchase ………….. 8
Cellular container ships …………………………… 9
LNG carriers…………………………………………
Representative newbuilding contracts…
Representative second hand sales……….
Contact list…………………………………………..
RS Platou Economic Research AS P.O. Box 1604 Vika Tel.: +47 23 11 20 00 [email protected] | Oslo Haakon VII's gate 10 Fax: +47 23 11 23 00 www.platou.com
N‐0119 Oslo, Norway
Tanker market;
Not the new normal
but definitely in from
the cold
11
12
14
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Percent
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Analyses and comments
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 2
The spike in VLCC rates over the past month is driven by a
mixture of fundamental, seasonal and psychological factors.
While rate levels of more than $50,000 per day are
unsustainable, we believe the upswing confirms that the
market is not structurally imbalanced and that the cycle now is
turning.
The tanker market, like most other shipping markets, has a long
history of sudden and dramatic changes. Usually, such abrupt
swings can be explained by observable events like increases in
oil production or the impact of weather and/or politics on
trading patterns. This time around, however, none of the above
applies and the question is; how could a market go from
supposedly “severely overtonnaged” to booming in a fortnight
if nothing fundamentally has changed?
Let’s start by challenging the issue of overcapacity. As was
thoroughly discussed in last month’s issue, we estimate that
overcapacity is a relatively moderate 8 percent when taking
economic factors, which put real constraints on fleet
productivity, into consideration. The starting point for a market
recovery was thus not hopeless, in other words.
When looking at the fundamentals it is important to
understand that 2013 is a year of two very distinct halves. The
first half was dominated by declining seaborne trade of 3
percent and rising fleet capacity of 5 percent. The result was a
fall in capacity utilization to the low 80s percent and average
VLCC rates of 10,000‐$15,000 per day.
The second half is very different, most importantly because of a
marked recovery in the oil trade. That, at least, should not
come as a surprise. While the US is being blamed for
contracting global oil imports, the real problem early in the
year was a contra‐cyclical decline in Asian imports as China
destocked. The second half is seeing a reversal of this trend
and Asian imports are up 4 percent y‐y in the past four months.
In addition, trading distances are lengthening as imports from
the Atlantic Basin to Asia are increasing and, note this, the
same goes for Middle East Gulf exports to the West, thanks to
rising US demand and to European refiners needing to replace
lost Libyan barrels.
A more surprising contributor to market tightness is an
unexpectedly sharp slowdown in fleet growth. Newbuilding
deliveries are behind schedule and fleet growth has come
down from more than 6 percent at the start of the year to 3
percent in November. Fleet utilization is thus off its lows but
the very low starting point meant that early improvements
went “under the radar”. That is until the seasonal pick up in oil
demand exposed charterers to a shortage of tonnage and
created a predictable “fixing frenzy”, common at market turns.
What now? While we for some time have believed that 2013
would be the low point for the tanker market we have not
been expecting 2014 to be a significantly better year because
fundamentals are expected to recover slowly. If that is the
case, rates should come down relatively quickly in Q1, as
seasonal and psychological support factors moderate.
The two main uncertainties are oil demand and newbuilding
deliveries. Recently, demand data has been beating
expectations and that, combined with the still fragile
geopolitical situation in the Middle East, argues for no change
in OPEC policy when the group meets later this week, an
outcome which should cushion the expected Q1 downturn in
rates.
Fleet capacity growth should continue to slow, although there
is a risk that the overhang of 2013 non‐deliveries could appear
in 2014. On the other hand, questions remain over parts of the
orderbook at Chinese yards.
In short, the road is not all clear yet but the market collapse
which took place in the first half of this year should not repeat.
Sharply lower fleet growth is expected to support a moderate
cyclical market recovery over the next two years. A
continuation into 2016 and beyond will to a large extent
depend on the ordering behavior of owners themselves.
Ole‐Rikard Hammer
Head of Research
RS Platou Economic Research
Tanker market; Not the new normal but definitely in from the cold
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
World economy and world shipping
World economy ‐ YoY change in % Forecasts for world GDP, monthly revisions YoY change in %GDP growthUSEuro areaChinaJapanIndiaWorldWorld tradeVarious sources ( ) previous month, if changed
World merchant fleet ‐ YoY change in %
Tonnage demandFleet growthUtilization rate Seaborne trade YoY change in %
Market indicators ‐ YoY change in %Seaborne trade*OilDry bulkOil
Oil consumption WorldUS
ChinaCrude imports US
ChinaDry bulkChina imports Total
Iron oreSteel production China Exchange rate USD/EUR
USContainerUS imports
Commodity prices, end of month
Brent oil ‐ spot USD/bbl
Bunkers ‐ Singapore USD/t
Indian iron ore USD/t
Steam coal USD/t
Steel ‐ HRC B. Sea USD/t
* For details on sources and methods, visi
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 3
November was another month of «buying the rumor» and “selling
the fact» for the world economy. In other words, while the hard
data again largely was on the disappointing side, investors
continued to see the world in a positive light with Central Banks in
control. Both the Eurozone and Japanese economies slowed
significantly during the third quarter. In Europe, growth slumped
across the board, except for the UK, from +1.1% in Q2 to +0.4% in
Q3, while remaining in negative territory on a year‐to‐year
comparison. In Japan growth dropped from 3.8% to 1.9% as
exports and consumer spending slowed. On the bright side, the US
economy accelerated from 2.5% to 2.8% in Q3. More importantly,
monthly data releases in November have continued to beat
expectations thus defying fears that the government shutdown in
October would be a significant blow to the economy.
Oct 2013
(1.6)
111.0 111.8
4.9
5.9
3.6‐1.3‐11.5
3.8‐16.1
5.83.6
2.8
83.77.3
7.41.7
2013F
2.61.7
1.9
3.1
8.3
2013‐10m
2012
Sep 2013
2Q2013 3Q2013 2013‐9m
5.8
‐13.8Sep 2013
5.23.3
‐0.4‐0.6
(2.0)(7.6)
4.9
Oct 2013
‐1.7
1.94.8
535.0
130.5
www.platou.com/dnn_site/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=CodSYdx5lSM%3d&tabid=536
1.5
6.5
2013‐10m5.8
‐0.25.2
2013‐10m
‐14.6
13.810.3
27.9
23.314.8116.3
5.5
515.0
609.0
4.9
83.9
‐2.3 0.5
107.7
(2.7)
2.9
1.31.3
3.7
540.0
619.0
82.883.3 80.6117.5 135.5
2012 2013 2014
7.77.81.0
3.785.3
5.3
(5.9)
2014F
2.92.7
(‐0.3)
Nov 2013
25.321.19.28.7
597.0
Sep 2013 Oct 2013
4.1
Nov 2012
‐2.8
4.2
Oct 2013
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013
2012 2013 2014
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Dry bulk Oil
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Newbuilding
Newbuilding prices in mill USD Building prices for tankers Mill USD
VLCCSuezmaxAframaxMR CleanCapesizeKamsarmaxUltramax (from Jan 2013)
* Tankers from Korean yards, bulk carriers from Chinese yards
Order book in no. / mill dwt
VLCCSuezmaxAframaxSmaller Building prices for bulk carriers Mill USDTotalCapesizePost PanamaxPan./KamsarmaxHandy/SupramaxHandysizeTotal
New orders in no. / mill dwt
VLCCSuezmaxAframaxSmallerTotal Exchange rates Left: CNY/USD | Right: JPY/USDCapesizePost PanamaxPan./KamsarmaxHandy/SupramaxHandysizeTotal
* For tonnage definitions, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=CodSYdx5lSM%3d&tabid=536
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 4
222
3.9
4
305
56
584
123
7.6
43.8
94
7.5
279
20125.3
6.4
29.4
8.7
6.0 0
9
16
63.2
26
7
11.9 6.0
29
35
17
311
0.4
51
631
24
1.3
1920.1
142015+
4.414.5
50/51
45
1.412.1
20.0
1.2
286.6
18.0
15.1
Nov 20132013 YTD
296
59/60
0.0
18
0.00.20.7
201426
3.424.3
45/4632
23.3
5.8348
36382
Oct 2013 Nov 2013
50/51
8957 59/60
0.1
November has been a relatively active month with more than 20
VLCC newbuildings concluded or in the pipeline of being
concluded, while buyers with existing contracts have been active
in exercising their options. Apart from the VLCCs, the activity in
the dry, clean and gas sectors remains fairly strong.
4
Tank * 9
51182
28/2926/27
Bulk*
35
35
93/9493/94
5.6131
18.6
256
389
13
Dec 2012
150
8.2
0.0
6.4
15
6
59
Bulk *
Total Rest 2013
Tank*
3
27
99
Some representative fixtures:
Bank of Communication have ordered five 9,200teu container
vessels at Samsung Heavy Industries, while Minsheng Financial
Leasing have contracted two, all against a long‐term charter to
CMA CGM.
19
2390
39
198
135179
2.5
1527
94
3
1.93.9
109.8182
9.331
16211.3
3.2
4.2
4.6
4625
26 5.10.7
7.6
19.8
18.747.2
0.8
516
4.3
23.1
12
237
0.6 1.8
49.6 49.8
0.6
51/52
1.40.4
0
2.44.4
10.5
771
21.721
5699
0.9
0.7
Tank *
2
Bulk *
0
19
5.88.4
7.7
194
216
88
0.9
44.0
152
16.444
4
11.7
200
0.7
1314
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
VLCC Suezmax Aframax MR Clean
0
25
50
75
100
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Capesize Kamsarmax/Panamax Supramax
60
80
100
120
140
6
7
8
9
10
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CNY/USD JPY/USD
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Tankers | Freight market
Average freight rates in 1,000 USD/day Weekly spot rates for crude carriers# 1,000 USD/day
VLCCSuezmaxAframaxLR2 CleanLR1 CleanMR CleanVLCCSuezmaxAframaxLR2 CleanLR1 CleanMR Clean
For weekly freight rates, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/EconomicResearch/WeeklyFreightRates.aspx
Weekly spot rates for clean carriers# 1,000 USD/day
Tanker fleet development in mill dwt *
VLCCSuezmaxAframaxSmallerTotal tanker fleet* For tonnage definitions, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=CodSYdx5lSM%3d&tabid=536
Oil market in mill bpd
OECDNon‐OECD Middle East oil production (monthly) Mill bpdWorld demandMiddle EastAfricaLatin AmericaNorth AmericaWestern EuropeAsiaFSUOthersWorld supply
World seaborne oil trade
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 5
45.9
10.5
13.7
10.7
1.7
2013 YTD190.4
2013 YTDDeliveries
2.0
9.5 5.3
15.0
45.1
Nov 2013
23.0
13.53.5
13.89.8
76.5
105.0470.9
3.0
2011
18.0
2012 E
14.9
14.3
2013‐10m45.9
1.8
0.9
16.0
7.7
Removals
‐5.2
‐2.489.8
13.9
5.3
0.1
91.0
91.4
43.9
15.3
45.6
18.7
14.514.6
‐0.22.91.3
Supply
‐0.4
10.6
0.59.7
3.3
90.9
45.0 44.6
15.9
5.121.1
2012‐10m
8.2
4.7
17.5
15.8
‐0.8
12.4
2.5
1.0
12.1
99.0
14.515.7
13.0
Spot
12m T/C
Dem
and
YoY in %
in %
2.3
2013 F44.6
2.5
23.6
13.1
16.0
14.514.3
15.8
13.3
‐5.6
14.74.2
How the world turns! The tepid green shoots of a market recovery
in October went into overdrive in November with the VLCC market
experiencing its strongest month in more than three years.
Chartering activity from the MEG remained brisk through the
whole month and with tonnage lists thinning out any charterer
opting to wait for owners to give in was forced to pay up instead.
Suezmaxes also benefited by getting better access to West African
11.8
15.0
20.7
15.213.4
14.8
cargoes. Aframaxes were flat on the month.
In the clean market a strong US Gulf export market dominated the
month while the Cont‐US market remained in a slump. Plentiful
supply of LRs put downward pressure on those segments through
the month.
18.1
14.6
Fleet end
13.6
13.4
17.2
13.0
2012 YTD
19.4
2013 YTD Oct 2013 Nov 2013
10.6
7.6
16.213.3
16.0
8.7
11.2
7.7
15.3
YoY
20.019.9
16.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4‐Oct 18‐Oct 1‐Nov 15‐Nov 29‐Nov
VLCC Suezmax Aframax
0
5
10
15
20
25
4‐Oct 18‐Oct 1‐Nov 15‐Nov 29‐Nov
MR Clean LR1 LR2
19
20
21
22
23
24
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
# World‐wide averages
# World‐wide averages
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Tankers | Sale and purchase
Estimated values in mill USD Second hand values, 5 years old Mill USD
310,000 dwt resale305,000 dwt 5 years300,000 dwt 10 years160,000 dwt resale160,000 dwt 5 years160,000 dwt 10 years105,000 dwt resale105,000 dwt 5 years105,000 dwt 10 yearsC 75,000 dwt resaleC 75,000 dwt 5 yearsC 50,000 dwt resaleC 47,000 dwt 5 yearsC 47,000 dwt 10 yearsC 37,000 dwt 5 years Second hand values for clean carriers, 40/45,000 dwt Mill USD
Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments in mill USDAverage Baltic panel assessmentsVLCC ‐ 5 years old 305,000 dwtAframax ‐ 5 years old 105,000 dwtMR Prod. ‐ 5 years old 45,000 dwt
Demolition prices in USD/ldt
Far EastSub continent ** India/Bangladesh/Pakistan
5 years second hand values in percent of newbuilding pricesSold for scrapping and other removals* in no. / mill dwt
VLCC ‐ double hullSuezmax ‐ double hullAframax ‐ double hullSmaller ‐ double hullTotal ‐ double hullSingle hullTotal* Including total loss/conversion/reclass
For tonnage definitions, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=CodSYdx5lSM%3d&tabid=536
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 6
272.6
24.0
43.0
0
10.7
27.0
27.3
42.0
0.0
24.0
32.0
1.7
25.0
340
21.0
8.6
53.8
2013 YTD1.24
Nov 2013
85.0
24
30.0
Nov 2013
55.0
18.025.0
56.038.0
42.0
60.0 60.0
28.0
38.0
29.0
36.0
09
30.0
55.043.0
43.0
85.0
30.0
41119
28
1.6
20.0
21
10.7
0.2
26.8
3
45.028.039.0
55.0
36102
2.1
425
16
38.0
380
17
42.0 42.0
Improved VLCC earnings combined with near term deliveries
“drying‐up”, has lately made compelling stories to tell. Traditional
Owners as well as financial investors now turn their focus to the
VLCC sector – the “Ugly Duckling” of crude tankers for the past
several years. Fleet deals and single ship deals alike are under
development, but it is worth noticing that the larger transactions
in motion have in common an underlying requirement for public‐
and/or private
9
58.0
Nov 2012
54.0
33.0
29.0
6
66
28.0
Oct 2013 Nov 2013
18.0
28.0
28.0
20.0
26.5
20.0
0.1
15.0
365
16.0 18.0
420
32.0
1.1
35.0
36.0 38.0
25 Nov
0.01.6
2.5
Nov 2012
capital markets support. Thus it remains to be seen who can
successfully match their appetite with ability. The improved
psychology around VLCCs has so far not rubbed off on the
Suezmax sector where buying interest remains weak. For Aframax
tankers the buying interest is however rather strong and modern
sales candidates are scarce. The product tanker sector still holds a
fair level of s+p activity, although at a more sedate level. In
general, tanker prices remained stable to firming.
85.0 90.0
2012 YTD
54.70.82.11.0
78
60.0
Sep 2013
45.0
2.8
420
8.0
27.0
400
38.0 40.0
2
Oct 2013Sep 2013
11 Nov
340
27.5
30.0
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
VLCC Suezmax Aframax
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
10 years DH 5 years
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
VLCC Suezmax Aframax
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Bulk carriers | Freight market
Average freight rates in 1,000 USD/day Weekly spot rates 1,000 USD/day
CapesizePanamaxSupramaxHandysizeCapesizePanamaxSupramaxHandysize
For weekly freight rates, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/EconomicResearch/WeeklyFreightRates.aspx
Dry bulk fleet development in mill dwt
12 months T/C rates 1,000 USD/dayCapesizePost PanamaxPanamax/KamsarmaxHandymax/SupramaxHandysizeTotal dry bulk fleet* Including conversions
Industrial production, YoY in %
USAEuro areaJapanChinaOther Asia China's dry bulk import by commodity Mill tons/month
Steel production in mill tons
USAJapanEU27ChinaOther AsiaTotal world
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 7
139.4
92.0
1321.0
‐2.3
90.2
2012‐10m
7.7
2.0
10.0
74.7 72.7 ‐2.8
4.4
12.49.1
3.2
2013 YTD
152.384.7
2013‐10m
12.4
7.6 277.6
1.8
14.0
33.9
14.0
10.1
9.4
11.9
9.5
2013F
11.512.8 11.89.5
602.7
Deliveries*
5.8
‐0.9
9.518.5 18.0
9.8
7.7
14.6
9.98.9
0.4
10.0
21.4
Removals
2.3
‐0.6
5.556.4
Oct 2013
Nov 2013
7.9
8.3
143.3
11.0
9.6
14.9
5.0
2012
1.93.03.6
20.5
8.3
8.2
4.0
11.6
The Supramax and Handysize segments experienced steadily
higher earnings during the course of November. In addition to high
activity in Black Sea grain exports, we noticed higher intra‐Asian
minor bulk traffic, especially in minerals from Indonesia to China. A
potential ban on Indonesian mineral exports from January 2014
has forced China to raise inventories before year end.
138.4
8.4
Spot
YoYFleet end
12m T/C
15.9
2013 YTD
Nov 2013
7.7
652.5
706.4
47.8144.0
‐3.4
‐0.7
YoY in %
20.7
2013 YTD
5.5
5.1
139.5
4.4
Panamax and Capesize tonnage experienced softer rates in the
first part of the month before a sharp recovery occurred in the
final week mainly driven by higher iron ore and coal shipments to
China and other Asian destinations and escalating US grain
shipments.
1279.9
‐0.8
2.5
‐0.1
2012 YTD
8.8
2.4
4.0
9.7
2014F
in %
10.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
4‐Oct 18‐Oct 1‐Nov 15‐Nov 29‐Nov
Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize
0
20
40
60
80
05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1 10.1 11.1 12.1 13.1
Iron ore Coal
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Bulk carriers | Sale and purchase
Estimated values in mill USD Second hand values, 5 years old Mill USD
180,000 dwt resale172,000 dwt 5 years170,000 dwt 10 years82,000 dwt resale74,000 dwt 5 years72,000 dwt 10 years56,000 dwt resale56,000 dwt 5 years50,000 dwt 10 years32,000 dwt resale28,000 dwt 5 years28,000 dwt 10 years
Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments in mill USD Second hand values, 10 years old Mill USDAverage Baltic panel assessmentsCapesize ‐ 5 years old 172,000 dwtPanamax ‐ 5 years old 74,000 dwtSuper Handy ‐ 5 years old 56,000 dwt
Demolition prices in USD/ldt
Far EastSub continent** India/Bangladesh/Pakistan
Sold for scrapping in no. / mill dwt
Capesize 5 years second hand values in percent of newbuilding pricesPost PanamaxPanamax/KamsarmaxHandymax/SupramaxHandysizeTotal
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 8
27.0
5.820.7
2.5
Nov 2013
Nov 201354.0
350
0.1
506
43687
23.0
Oct 2013
22.0 23.0
23.5
40.050.0
360
1460.2
11
19.0
19.0
26.5
20.4
37.6
14.0
41.0
21.0
31.2
18.0
6
330
11 Nov
7.6
16.0
31.5
38.0
29.0 30.0
73 43 2
31.5
Nov 2012
0.412.3
19.0
330
24.0 24.0
22.5
0.0
13.5
7.6
0
1
19.0
37.0
0.7
0.1
33.026.0
18.5
26.530.0
17.522.5
22.3
16.5
395
17.014.521.015.5
31.0
Despite the recent volatility in freight rates the activity remains
high with continued interest across the segments, which is clearly
evidenced by the number of ships sold. With investors still willing
to fund buyers appetite for tonnage,
24.0
Oct 2013
23.5
41.052.0
Nov 2012 Sep 2013
18.523.5
22.7
Sep 2013
368
25.5
198
coupled with a lack of modern tonnage in the market for most
sizes, prices for available sales candidates have continued their
firming trend across the board.
390 390 385
Nov 20132013 YTD2012 YTD
4.0
11.5
857
222 6.50.8
14.0
13.5
4.4
25 Nov
0
40
80
120
160
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Capesize Panamax Handymax
0
50
100
150
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Capesize Panamax Handymax
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Capesize Panamax Handymax
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Cellular container ships
Average charter rates in 1,000 USD/day 12 month T/C rates 1,000 USD/day
1,000 TEU1,700 TEU3,000 TEU4,500 TEU
Container fleet development in mill TEU
Below 1,000 TEU1,000 ‐ 1,999 TEU2,000 ‐ 3,999 TEU4,000 ‐ 5,999 TEU6,000 ‐ 7,999 TEU8,000 ‐ 9,999 TEU Building prices Mill USD10,000+ TEUTotal container fleet
Order book in no. / mill TEUTEUBelow 1,000
1,000 ‐ 1,9992,000 ‐ 3,9994,000 ‐ 5,9996,000 ‐ 7,9998,000 ‐ 9,99910,000+Total
China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) USD/TEUNew orders in no. / mill TEU
Below 1,000 TEU1,000 ‐ 1,999 TEU2,000 ‐ 3,999 TEU4,000 ‐ 5,999 TEU6,000 ‐ 7,999 TEU8,000 ‐ 9,999 TEU10,000+ TEUTotal
* Due to the market turbulence and an increaslingly complex sale and
purchase market, no second hand price updates have been provided
since October 2011
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 9
7.3
1.77
Nov 2013
0.00
in %
7.5
0
4.64
Oct 2013
1.32
Nov 2013
0.00
0.380.00
7.3
YoY
0.10
1.823.112.54
2.70
0.01
6.0
‐4.0
‐1.2
Fleet end
0.66
7.16.0
Removals
0.01
7.5
0.00
24.0
5.40.41
2
0.06
0.050.11
5.6
1.84
0.05
2013 YTD
41 0.06
8.58.9
2.7
0.03
0.81
6.68.2
68
‐2.8
2012 YTD
15.8
Rest 2013 2014 2015+
2012 2013 YTD Nov 2013
008
15
0.00
0.080.14
19
315
18
0.47 22410
42
910.93
0.060.02
12
90
00.01
0.090.02
6364
17
7
8
0.09
0.960.13
42
31
0.13
0.08
0.000.00
1
0.10
610.31
0.12
10.0
5.9
0.00
0.16
Total
7.3
2013 YTD
ships delivered from yards generated a too high fleet growth and
operators were forced to put more ships into idle position.
Charter rates remained relatively unchanged for ships below 3000
TEU, but for ships in the range of 3000 – 5000, slightly lower levels
were reported to have been fixed.
0.110.000.14
4
Deliveries
0.20
0.00
0.04
0.49
1.54
26
0.54600.03
13
0.07
0.041.06
57
106
3.69
43
0.18
20
27
0.28
0.00
0.09
474
77 0.22
72
5.7
Box rates rose significantly on major routes after a successful
implementation of GRI’s early last month. However, a weakening
tendency was noticed most recently both on Asia to Europe and
Asia to USA. US container imports increased 3 percent year on
year basis in October, and EU imports rose 4 percent. Seasonally
weaker demand growth combined with a continued inflow of new
8.3
2013 YTD
38 4
40.060.38
0.57
0.002
0.000.06
0.06
0.04
0.01
0.00
144
20
45
1.75
2
2.00
911
17.25
411
0.03
217212
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
4,500 TEU 3,000 TEU 1,700 TEU 1,000 TEU
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
9,000 TEU* 6,000 TEU* 4,500 TEU* 1,700 TEU
* Gearless
750
1 000
1 250
1 500
1 750
2 000
2 250
2010 2011 2012 2013China to N. Europe China to S. EuropeChina to USWC China to USEC
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
LNG carriers
Average charter rates in 1,000 USD/day Freight rates, 155,000 cbm 1,000 USD/day
155k cbm ‐ Spot155k cbm ‐ T/C
LNG carrier fleet development in no. / mill cbm
1,000 cbm10‐5050‐100100‐200200+Total
Order book in no. / mill cbm Building price, 155,000 cbm Mill USD1,000 cbm10‐5050‐100100‐200200+Total
New orders in no. / mill cbm1,000 cbm10‐5050‐100100‐200200+Total
Natural gas prices USD/mmbtu
LNG imports in mill mt
JapanKoreaChina
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo
2012
11.78
0
0 0.00
0.00
0.84
370.00
Nov 2013
0.00 05 11.585.95
17
‐7.5
56.85
0150
5.98
in %‐3.0
0
42.39
0.000.20
0
387
00.00 0.008‐0.01
0.00
14
9 0.23
18.38
2013 YTD
0.25
0
79
Continuing strong winter demand in the Far East is facilitating
short term charter rates to inch up towards the 100K per day mark
for steam vessels, with little premium being seen for TFDEs. In the
Atlantic, traders and portfolio players are practicing their Lego
skills, scrambling to build blocks of partial cargoes into something
resembling a whole one, in order to feed the thirsty Far East
markets.
0.09
2012 YTD
80 0
690.85
2013‐10m
390.00
119 18.60 4
111
00
5.33 1 0.17
2015+2014
2.360.00
38
Nov 2013
0.00 00
0.00
77
0.00 0.00
0.031
0.00
0.22
YoY in %72.829.011.8
72.232.914.2
‐0.913.220.7
33 5.45 30 5.10 1 0.170 0.00 0 0.00 0
93
YoY
Japan’s Metrological Agency’s 3 months forecast indicates a
significant probability of colder temperatures this winter. Supply
disruptions out of North Africa, are causing some cargo re‐
arrangements in the Atlantic. Speculation of increasing demand in
Southern Europe, may spike prices for what is available. On the
other hand, maintenance at NLNG is ending, which may bring
some cargo / price alleviation.
79
4.60.010.37
0.00
128140
99 90
315 45.13
0.03
2013 YTD
87
0.29
Nov 2013
Fleet end
10
1120
2012‐10m
33 5.45
Total
2013 YTD2013 YTDDeliveries Removals
453.7
‐1
0.00
Rest 2013
0.37
Oct 2013
1.060.042 13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Spot 12m T/C
125
150
175
200
225
250
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Henry Hub NBP LNG spot Asia
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Representative reported newbuilding contracts
ProductCapacity Owner Reported price/unit4 x 52,000 dwt Sungdong Shipbuilding Maersk 35 mill USD 2015 / 20165 x 52,000 dwt Hyundai Mipo Latsis 35 mill USD 20162 x 112,000 dwt Guangzhou Longxue Navig8 47.9 mill USD 2016
ChemicalCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery4 x 33,000 dwt New Times J O Tankers 2016
BulkCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery3 x 64,000 dwt Guangzhou Huangpu KC Maritime 26/27 mill USD 2015 / 20163 x 64,000 dwt Chengxi Shipyard Golden Ocean 2015 / 20166 x 82,000 dwt Hudong Shipbuilding Scorpio Bulkers 28 mill USD 2015 / 20162 x 82,000 dwt Jinling Shipyard Cara Shipping 27 mill USD 20152 x 150,000 dwt Hanjin H. I. S T X Pan Ocean 48 mill USD 20162 x 180,000 dwt Daehan Shipbuilding Knightsbridge 53 mill USD 20153 x 180,000 dwt Daewoo Mangalia Scorpio Bulkers 54 mill USD 2015 / 20161 x 180,000 dwt Hanjin H. I. Poseidon Shipping 54.5 mill USD 20161 x 206,000 dwt Daehan Shipbuilding Polaris 58 mill USD 20162 x 208,000 dwt N A C K S Foremost 58 mill USD 20164 x 208,000 dwt Taizhou Catic Oldendorff Carriers 53/54 mill USD 2015 / 20162 x 209,000 dwt N A C K S Winning Shipping 58 mill USD 20162 x 250,000 dwt Qingdao Beihai Cara Shipping 59 mill USD 2016
ContainerCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery2 x 2,400 teu Halter Marine Crowley Maritime 20172 x 3,600 teu Aker Philadelphia Matson Navigation 209 mill USD 20182 x 6,900 teu Hanjin Philippines Cape Shipping 58/59 mill USD 20155 x 9,200 teu Samsung H.I. Bank Of Communications 84.5 mill USD 2015 / 2016
2 x 9,200 teu Samsung H.I. Minsheng Financial Leasing 84.5 mill USD 20162 x 9,400 teu Jiangnan Changxing C S S C Leasing 80 mill USD 2015
LPGCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery2 x 38,000 liq Hanjin Philippines Exmar 46.5 mill USD 2017 / 20182 x 84,000 liq Hyundai H.I. B W Gas 73.5 mill USD 20162 x 84,000 liq Hyundai H.I. Dorian 75 mill USD 2015 / 20162 x 84,000 liq Hyundai H.I. Geogas 77 mill USD 20152 x 84,000 liq Hyundai H.I. Latsis 76/77 mill USD 2015 / 2016
LNGCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery1 x 173,400 liq Daewoo Shipbuilding Teekay 200 mill USD 2016
CARCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery2 x 7,930 ceu Hyundai Samho. Wilhelmsen Lines 20162 x 6,700 ceu Samjin Weihai Siem Car Carriers 2016
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 11
DeliveryShipyard
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Representative second hand sales
TankName Capacity Built Price Buyers CommentsShanghai Spirit 320 000 dwt 2014/China 88.8 mill USD GreeceKumanogawa 302 000 dwt 2001/Japan 30 mill USD KoreaGrand China 297 000 dwt 2010/China " mill USD "Great China 297 000 dwt 2009/China " mill USD "Peace China 297 000 dwt 2011/China Enbloc 163 mill USD GreeceTenerife Spirit 160 000 dwt 2000/Korea 16.5 mill USD GreeceRio Genoa 159 000 dwt 2007/Japan 34 United States
Chemical/ProductName Capacity Built Price Buyers CommentsMako 104 000 dwt 1998/Korea 10.5 mill USD ChinaAffinity 73 000 dwt 2005/Korea 24.7 mill USD "Perseverance 74 000 dwt 2005/Korea 24.7 mill USD GreeceHyundai Mipo 2447 50 000 dwt 2014/Korea " mill USD "Hyundai Mipo 2448 50 000 dwt 2015/Korea " mill USD "Hyundai Mipo 2446 50 000 dwt 2014/Korea Undisclosed mill USD United StatesOkhotsk Sea 47 000 dwt 1999/Croatia10.5 mill USD IndonesiaAntea 40 000 dwt 2002/Korea 15.2 mill USD GreeceMilleura 40 000 dwt 2003/Korea 15.7 mill USD NetherlandsMadonna 31 000 dwt 1999/Japan 7.9 mill USD IndonesiaAtlantic Wind 15 000 dwt 2007/Roman 12 mill USD GermanyStx Hero 15 000 dwt 2009/Roman 12 mill USD GermanyClipper Daisy 13 000 dwt 1998/Japan 8 mill USD UndisclosedFranz Schulte 13 000 dwt 2006/Korea 12 mill USD KoreaPeter Schulte 13 000 dwt 2006/Korea 12 mill USD KoreaRuth Schulte 13 000 dwt 2007/Korea 12 mill USD Korea
ContainerName Capacity Built Price Buyers Comments
Hyundai Busan 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD " "Hyundai Hongkong 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD " "Hyundai Singapore 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD " "Hyundai Tokyo 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD " "Hyundai Shanghai 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD Greece incl. 7 years t/c to HMM at USD 30,150/dayCarina Schulte 5 400 TEU 2014/Philippine 48 mill USD KoreaConti Tianjin 4 298 TEU 2006/Korea 14.6 mill USD ChinaBahia Blanca 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia Castillo 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia Grande 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia Laura 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia Negra 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD Germany includes charter backCarlotta Star 3 430 TEU 2000/Korea 14.5 mill USD GreeceCatalina Star 3 430 TEU 2001/Korea 15 mill USD GermanyCma Cgm Melbourne 2 732 TEU 2006/Poland 17 mill USD UndisclosedCcni Rimac 2 526 TEU 2001/Germany 11.9 mill USD GermanyAustria 2 468 TEU 1997/Germany 7.2 mill USD Germany
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 12
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Representative second hand sales
BulkName Capacity Built Price Buyers CommentsSanko Power 181 000 dwt 2010/Japan region 46 mill USD Great BritainK. Happiness 179 000 dwt 2011/Korea " mill USD "K. Global Pride 179 000 dwt 2012/Korea Enbloc 103mill USD United StatesHokuriku Maru 94 000 dwt 1995/Japan 8 mill USD ChinaShanghai Jiangnan Chan82 000 dwt 2014/China 32 mill USD "Shanghai Jiangnan Chan82 000 dwt 2014/China 32 mill USD MonacoPerly 78 000 dwt 2002/Japan 14.5 mill USD ChinaCarol 76 000 dwt 1999/Japan region 14 mill USD GreeceFu May 76 000 dwt 2002/Japan 16.5 mill USD UndisclosedAldebaran One 75 000 dwt 2000/China 12.5 mill USD IndiaPride Of Indore 75 000 dwt 1996/Italy 7.3 mill USD ChinaC. Journey 73 000 dwt 1995/Korea 7.25 mill USD GreeceEver Young 73 000 dwt 1995/Korea 7.2 mill USD GreeceHsin Ho 72 000 dwt 1997/Japan 10 mill USD TaiwanVitapride 69 000 dwt 1993/Japan 6.9 mill USD UndisclosedSainty Yangzhou Sam 1264 000 dwt 2014/China " mill USD "Sainty Yangzhou Sam 1264 000 dwt 2014/China Enbloc 55 mill USD ThailandSupra Challenger 2 61 000 dwt 2013/Japan " mill USD "Supra Challenger I 61 000 dwt 2012/Japan Enbloc 58. mill USD GreeceCentrans Star 57 000 dwt 2013/China 21 mill USD GreeceDesert Condor 56 000 dwt 2011/Japan 28 mill USD GreeceEast 55 000 dwt 2012/Vietnam " mill USD "South 55 000 dwt 2012/Vietnam " mill USD "West 55 000 dwt 2012/Vietnam " mill USD "Metropol 54 000 dwt 2012/Vietnam Enbloc region 100 GreeceMaple Creek 53 000 dwt 2005/Japan 18.5 mill USD GreeceFrontier Angel 52 000 dwt 2001/Japan 14.85 mill USD GreeceBoron Navigator 50 000 dwt 2001/Japan 15.5 mill USD GreeceAmorita 47 000 dwt 1997/Japan 12 mill USD Greece
Nesrin Aksoy 47 000 dwt 1997/Japan 9.5 mill USD DenmarkArgonaut 43 000 dwt 1991/Japan 5 mill USD GreeceSt. Nicholas 42 000 dwt 1996/Bulgaria xs 6 mill USD UndisclosedLittle Manatee 38 000 dwt 2012/Japan 23.5 mill USD GreeceJiangmen Nanyang 134 35 000 dwt 2014/China 23 mill USD "Jiangmen Nanyang 135 35 000 dwt 2014/China 23 mill USD UndisclosedVenus Ocean 34 000 dwt 2012/Japan 22.5 mill USD GreeceBeacon Sw 32 000 dwt 2007/Japan region 18 mill USD SingaporeTimothy‐R 32 000 dwt 2009/Korea 18.5 mill USD SingaporeCommodore 30 000 dwt 1997/Singapore8.3 mill USD ItalyFraga 29 000 dwt 2003/Japan 12.9 mill USD GreeceSouthern Fighter 29 000 dwt 1998/Japan 9 mill USD KoreaGlobal Challenger 25 000 dwt 1998/Japan 6.3 mill USD GreeceKen Un 24 000 dwt 1996/Japan low 6 mill USD UndisclosedBulk Sunset 18 000 dwt 1997/Japan 4.5 mill USD UndisclosedVinaconex Lines 16 000 dwt 2001/Japan 3.38 mill USD Undisclosed
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 13
RS Platou Monthly November 2013
Contact list
OsloRS Platou ASA RS Platou ShipbrokersHaakon VII's gate 10 Sale and Purchase +47 2311 2500 [email protected]‐0119 Oslo Newbuilding +47 2311 2650 [email protected] Tank +47 2311 2485 [email protected]: +47 2311 2000 Dry Cargo +47 2311 2450 [email protected]: +47 2311 2300 Car +47 2311 2600 [email protected]@platou.com Economic Research +47 2311 2000 [email protected]
RS Platou Offshore RS Platou Markets AS RS Platou Finans ASTel: +47 2311 2000 Tel: +47 2201 6300 Tel: +47 2311 2000Fax: +47 2311 2388 Fax: +47 2201 6310 Fax: +47 2311 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Geneva Houston LondonRS Platou Geneve SA Lone Star RS Platou Inc. RS Platou London19, Rue de la Corraterie 363 N. Sam Houston Parkway E. Floor 38A, Tower 42CH‐1204 Geneva Suite 125 25 Old Broad StreetSwitzerland Houston, Texas 77060 London EC2N 1HQ, United KingdomTel: +41 22 715 1800 USA Tel: +44 20 7448 7110Fax: +41 22 715 1820 Tel: +1 281 445 5600 Fax: +44 20 7448 [email protected] Fax: +1 281 445 1090 [email protected]
[email protected] [email protected]
Melbourne Moscow PerthRS Platou Melbourne SA RS Platou ASA, Moscow RS Platou Perth SAOffice 2, Level 10 Bronnaya Plaza, Bldg. 1, Floor 7 8/38 Colin St.499 St. Kilda 32, Sadova‐Kudrinskaya St. West Perth 6005Melbourne 3004 Moscow 123001, Russia WA, AustraliaVictoria, Australia Tel: +7 495 787 9922 Tel: +61 618 9226 0618Tel: +61 613 9867 1466 Fax: +7 495 787 9929 Fax: +61 618 9486 8120Fax: +61 613 9820 0106 [email protected] [email protected]
Piraeus Shanghai SingaporeRS Platou Hellas Ltd. RS Platou ASA Shanghai Repr. Office RS Platou (Asia) Pte. Ltd.1‐3 Filellinon Str. Lippo Plaza, Unit 2212‐2213 3 Temasek Avenue185 36 Piraeus 222 Huai Hai Zhong Road # 20‐01 Centennial TowerGreece Shanghai 200021, China Singapore 039190Tel: +30 210 4294 070 Tel: +86 21 5396 5959 Tel: +65 6336 8733Fax: +30 210 4294 071 Fax: +86 21 5396 5665 Fax: +65 6336 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]@platou.gr [email protected]
SydneyRS Platou Sydney SAGround Floor, 174 Willoughby RoadCrows Nest, Sydney 2065NSW, AustraliaTel: +61 612 9937 8800Fax: +61 612 9437 [email protected]
RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo
While care has been taken to ensure the information in this report is accurate, it is a general
guide and not intended to be relied upon for any specific purpose. RS Platou ASA, its
affiliates, directors and employees are not responsible or liable for any losses or conse‐
quences, whatsoever, arising from any errors, lack of correctness, inaccuracy or
incompleteness of the information contained herein. Reproducing any materials from this
report without prior approval from RS Platou ASA is strictly forbidden. All matters relating
to this report shall be governed by the laws of Norway, and any dispute arising in respect of
this presentation is subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Norwegian courts with Oslo as
legal venue.
14