SECURING WATER FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW…

PLANNING, RESOURCES, AND TECHNOLOGY COMMITTEE

FEBRUARY 11, 2019

Upper Mojave River Basin Model Update

AGENDA

Background

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Data

Model Utility

and

Progress

Next Steps

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Computer Model Background at MWA

1971 2001

USGS Analog Model created as a predictive tool to aid management

A 2 layer numerical model was developed to

understand the relationship between the floodplain and

regional aquifer and estimate effects of future

stresses

2006 2018 - 2019

Schlumberger Water Services built an

Upper Mojave River Watershed Model in Eclipse designed to

inform R3 and support long term

water supply goals

Board authorized updating and

converting Eclipse Model to MODFLOW-

NWT

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Models Informing Our Decisions

• 2006 Numerical Model

• Supported decisions associated with the design of R3 Program

• Was designed to support water supply decision making

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More Model Success Stories

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More Model Success Stories

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Lets Talk About Data

Our Model and Our Data

• Computer models are informed by multiple sources of data

• These data help conceptualize geology

• Understand groundwater occurrence and movement

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Multiple Sources of Data Incorporation

The success of any groundwater study depends upon the availability and

accuracy of measured and recorded data required for that study

Physical

Framework

Hydrologic

Framework

Other

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Physical Framework – Geology

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Multiple Sources incorporated into geologic framework

• 700 wells and related borelogs and geophysics

• Extracted data from previous model

• Gravity Surveys

• Western Boundary Study

• Tony

Physical Framework – Geology

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Physical Framework - Geology

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B-B’ Cross Section from SWS 2006 Model B-B’ Updated Preliminary Cross Section

Physical Framework - Geology

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B-B’ Cross Section from SWS 2006 Model B-B’ Updated Preliminary Cross Section

Hydrologic Framework

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790 Monitoring Wells700 Production Wells

Hydrologic Framework – Inflows and outflows

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Inflow

Anthropogenic:• State Water Project, VVWRA, Fish Hatchery, Lake Arrowhead

CSD, Crestline Sanitation District

Natural:• Mountain Front Recharge, Deep Creek and West Fork –

Mojave river percolation

Outflow

Anthropogenic:• Pumping wells consumptive pumping use and

minimal producers

Natural:• Evapotranspiration, subsurface outflow

Model Utility

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What questions will the updated model be able to answer?

• Run Scenarios: • How will continued long term drought

affect our water supply? • How will changes in pumping or recharge

affect water levels in areas of concern? • Understand water supply changes, native

supply, store water more effectively, mitigate effects of pumping

• Sensitivity Analysis – understanding which parameters have the greatest effect on water supply

• Capitol Improvement

Next Steps

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What questions will the updated model be able to answer?

• Finalize Layers and Fluxes • Finalize Model Grid and Layering• Start Calibration • Training staff to utilize in house• Scenario testing for fiscal year 2019 – 2020• Model completion expected by the end of

this fiscal year

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Questions?