planning commission study session presentation

San Joaquin CountySan Joaquin CountySan Joaquin CountySan Joaquin CountyGeneral Plan UpdateGeneral Plan Update

Pl i C i iPl i C i iPlanning CommissionPlanning CommissionStudy SessionStudy Session

Alternatives Report OverviewAlternatives Report Overview

March 3, 2011

Agenda

1. Where we are in the Update2. Alternatives Purpose3. Introduction to the Alternatives Report4. Alternatives Review Process5. Selecting a Preferred Alternative6 Discussion6. Discussion

2Planning Commission Study SessionMarch 3, 2011

Process & Schedule

General Plan Update Schedule

Project Initiation

June 2008 – November 2008

Goals and Policies Report

January 2011 – June 2011

Background Report

July 2008 – July 2009

y

Environmental Impact Report

May 2011 – August 2011

Housing Element

July 2008 – November 2009

Public Review

August 2011 – October 2011

Issues & Opportunities

May 2009 – October 2009

Final Documents and Adoption

October 2011– December 2011

Alternatives Report

Sept 2009 – May 2011

Development Title Update

July 2008 – June 2012


Where we are in the process…

Project Initiation



January 2011 – June 2011Ju e 008 o e be 008

Background Report

July 2008 – July 2009

y



Housing Element


Public Review






Alternatives Report

Sept 2009 – May 2011


July 2008 – June 2012


Where we are going…

Project Initiation



January 2011 – June 2011Ju e 008 o e be 008

Background Report

July 2008 – July 2009

y



Housing Element


Public Review






Alternatives Report

Sept 2009 – May 2011


July 2008 – June 2012


Purpose and Development of the Alternatives


Alternatives

Purpose of the Alternatives Report and Analysis

• Develop options for future growth, development, redevelopment, and preservationpreservation

• Evaluate impacts of different options • Discuss benefits and drawbacks of Discuss benefits and drawbacks of

alternative development patterns• Select a preferred course of action to

id f k f th d ft provide a framework for the draft General Plan

• Inform the EIR alternatives analysisInform the EIR alternatives analysis


Steps in the Alternatives Process

1. Develop and map the alternatives2. Model the alternatives3. Evaluate and compare the alternatives4. Review the alternatives5 Select a preferred direction5. Select a preferred direction


Introduction to the Alternatives Report

Alternatives Report Contents

• Section 1: Introduction• Section 2: Constraints Analysis• Section 3: Growth Alternatives

S ti 4 E l ti T i• Section 4: Evaluation Topics• Section 5: Major Issue Scenarios


Section 1: Introduction

• Report Overview• Alternatives Review Process• Relationship to Regional Blueprint• Selecting a Preferred Alternative• Reviewing Policy Options• Reviewing Policy Options• Growth Projections• Remaining CapacityRemaining Capacity


Section 2: Constraints Analysis

• Identifies and maps 3 types of constraints and considerationsR t th d f h t i t• Rates the degree of each constraint

Physical Constraint

Mor

eve

lopm

ent

Regulatory Constraint

ly to

Lim

it D

evRegulatory Constraint

SevereModerate

Like

lPolicy Consideration


SevereModerateRelative Degree of

Constraint

Section 2: Constraints Analysis

Composite Constraints Composite Constraints and Considerationsand Considerations

Flooding and Waterways

Water, Habitat, Biology

Agriculture and Mineral

Other Concerns

Water, Habitat, Biology


Section 3: Growth Alternatives

• Four Alternatives– Base Case: existing plan

Alternative A: distributed community growth– Alternative A: distributed community growth– Alternative B: compact, city-centered growth– Alternative C: employment growth

Base

BBase

Case B

A C



• Population and employment growth held constant



• There is a significant amount of remaining development capacity

City Limits

Urban Communities


Rural Communities

City Fringe Areas


• Base Case– Continues existing development trends

Based on the existing 2010 General Plan and – Based on the existing 2010 General Plan and adopted city general plans

BASE CASENet New Growth

2010-2030

Location

Population Employees

Number Percent Number PercentLocation Number Percent Number Percent

Unincorporated County

Urban Communities 40,770 12% 8,680 11%

Rural Communities 320 0% 340 0%

Balance of Unincorporated County 8,250 2% 3,710 5%

Subtotal 51,010 15% 12,700 16%

Cities and City Spheres of Influence

City Limits 232, 650 69% 55,110 68%

City Spheres of Influence 54,260 16% 13,020 16%

Subtotal 286,910 85% 68,130 84%

Total County 337,920 100% 80,840 100%



• Alternative A– Encourages new development in existing

unincorporated urban communitiesunincorporated urban communities– Farmington transforms into an

urban community

ALTERNATIVE ANet New Growth

2010-2030

Location


Number Percent Number PercentLocation Number Percent Number Percent



Rural Communities* 5,440 2% 550 1%


Subtotal 54,280 16% 11,860 15%


City Limits 232,090 69% 52,960 66%


Subtotal 283,650 84% 68,980 85%

Total County 337,920 100% 80,840 100%



• Alternative B– Increases densities and focuses development

in citiesin cities– Based on the Regional Blueprint

ALTERNATIVE BNet New Growth

2010-2030


Location Number Percent Number Percent



Rural Communities 320 0% 340 0%


Subtotal 42,980 13% 10,550 13%Subtotal 42,980 13% 10,550 13%


City Limits 279,590 83% 56,890 70%


Subtotal 295,130 87% 70,530 87%

Total County 338,110 100% 81,080 100%



• Alternative C– Focuses new development along I-5 and State

Route 99Route 99– Increases employment uses in

unincorporated areas

ALTERNATIVE CNet New Growth

2010-2030


Location


Number Percent Number Percent



Rural Communities 2,950 1% 610 1%


Subtotal 46,470 14% 13,570 17%


City Limits 238,770 71% 51,490 64%


Subtotal 291,450 86% 67,140 83%

Total County 337 920 100% 80 710 100%


Total County 337,920 100% 80,710 100%


Base CaseBase Case Alternative AAlternative A Alternative BAlternative B Alternative CAlternative C



Urban Urban CommunitiesCommunities

Rural Rural CommunitiesCommunities

Other Other UnincorporatedUnincorporated

Cities and Cities and SOIsSOIs

40 770

46,100

40 520 40 770

45,000

50,000

Urban Communities

Net New Population

2010-2030

5,440

4,000

5,000

6,000

Rural Communities

Net New Population

2010-20308,250

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Balance of Unincorporated County

Net New Population

2010-2030

54,260 51,56015,540

52,680250,000

300,000

350,000


Net New Population

2010-2030

City

SOIs

40,770 40,520 40,770

30,000

35,000

40,000

Base Case A B C

320 320

2,950

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Base Case A B C

2,7402,150

2,750

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Base Case A B C

232,650 232,090

279,590

238,770

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Base Case A B C

City

Limits

9,500

10,000

Urban Communities

Net New Employment

2010-2030

550

610

500

600

700

Rural Communities

Net New Employment

2010-2030

3,710

4,080

4,000

5,000

Balance of Unincorporated County

Net New Employment

2010-2030

13,020 16,020 13,64015,65060,000

70,000

80,000


Net New Employment

2010-2030

City

SOIs

8,660 8,6608,730

8,880

8,000

8,500

9,000

Base Case A B C

340 340

0

100

200

300

400

500

Base Case A B C

2,650

1,480

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Base Case A B C

55,110 52,96056,890 51,490

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Base Case A B C

City

Limits



Base CaseBase Case Alternative AAlternative A Alternative BAlternative B Alternative CAlternative C

More More More More

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Farmland Less

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Farmland Less

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Farmland Farmland Less

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Section 4: Evaluation Topics

• Evaluates 22 key topics affected by implementing each alternativeO tli k ti t id h • Outlines key questions to consider when reviewing the alternatives

• Includes policy options to address Includes policy options to address impacts resulting from the alternatives


Section 4: Evaluation TopicsCriteria

Base

Case A B C

Land Use

Land Use Efficiency Range of Housing Types C it Id tit

Legend

Community Identity Climate Change Greenhouse Gas Emissions Agriculture Agricultural Land Conversion

Transportation/

Ci l i

Future Airport Growth Vehicle Miles Traveled g

Least Favorable

Circulation Vehicle Miles Traveled Roadway Impacts

Public Facilities

and Services

Capacity/Demand for

Infrastructure Demand for Emergency Services Water Supply/ Demand

Most Favorable Natural

Resources

Water Supply/ Demand Aquifer Recharge Energy Consumption Biological Resources

The Delta Urban Development in the Deltap Recreation Demand for Parkland

Safety Flood Risk Wildland Fire Hazard Risk

E i dJobs/Housing Balance


Economic and

Fiscal Health Fiscal Health Property Tax Sharing

Section 5: Major Issue Scenarios

• Extrapolates on 6 key situations the County may need to be prepared to address:address:– High Speed Rail Development– Major Drought– Major Flooding– Energy Cost Increase– Peripheral Canal Constructionp– Fiscal Scenario

• Uses hypothetical stories set at some point in th f t it fi tithe future…its fiction

• Evaluates how the alternatives would cope with or address each scenario


Alternatives Review Process

Alternatives Evaluation Process

Alternatives Evaluation

Community Preferences

Preferred Alternative

Develop/Refine Alternatives

Alternatives Review

Preferred Alternative

Evaluation Preferences Alternative

Planning Commission Planning Commission PresentationPresentation

TAC Review and Input

Planning Commission Recommendation

Focus Groups Review and Input

Board of Supervisors Presentation

Board of Supervisors Direction

Review and Input

14 Community Workshops


Selecting a Preferred Alternative

Selecting the Preferred Alternative

• Not necessarily one of the alternatives• Likely made up of parts of each alternative


Planning Commission Recommendation

• What will you be asked to provide a recommendation on?

The part or parts of the alternatives would you – The part or parts of the alternatives would you like to see used as the basis for developing the Preferred Land Use Diagram


Considerations for Selecting a Preferred Alternative

• How do you think the County should grow and develop in the future?Wh t it b • What are community members preferences for future growth and development?

• Which part or parts of the alternatives:– Meet your long-term objectives for the County?

Address the iss es o think are most pressing?– Address the issues you think are most pressing?– Position the County to take advantage of

opportunities?– Achieve the draft Vision and Guiding Principles?

• Is there a growth or development option not identified in the Alternatives Report that


not identified in the Alternatives Report that should be considered?

Resources to Inform/Support Your Selection

• What resources can you use to base your recommendation on?Alt ti i t i l /i t• Alternatives review process materials/input– Alternatives Report Evaluation Topics– Alternatives Report Major Issues Scenarios– Focus Group member input – Community member preferences

• Other General Plan Update materials• Other General Plan Update materials– Background Report Findings– Issues and Opportunities Report– Draft Vision and Guiding Principles– Community Workshop Summaries


Future Planning Commission Action

““RecommendRecommend the following ___________ as the following ___________ as the basis for developing the Preferred Land the basis for developing the Preferred Land Use Diagram to guide the development of Use Diagram to guide the development of Use Diagram to guide the development of Use Diagram to guide the development of the Draft General Plan.”the Draft General Plan.”

The Preferred Land Use Diagram will remain The Preferred Land Use Diagram will remain a draft until General Plan adoption.a draft until General Plan adoption.


N t StNext Steps

Resources to Inform/Support Your Selection

• Alternatives Report Published– March 7, 2011B d f S i P t ti • Board of Supervisors Presentation – March 15, 2011

• Focus Group Meetings Focus Group Meetings – March 22 and 23, 2011

• Community Workshops March – April 2011

• Planning Commission Recommendation– TBDTBD

• Board of Supervisors Direction – TBD


Q ti /Di iQuestions/Discussion

planning commission study session presentation

Documents

alternatives reportsept

alternatives process1

alternatives report4

alternatives purpose3

alternatives review

introduction section

development title updatejuly

ti t i section