planning and partnership panel – 9 march 2007 john rumble sustainability team leader forward...

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

John RumbleSustainability Team LeaderForward Planning

Climate Change in Hertfordshire


Global Warming


Climate Change Scenarios

Regional data on climate change

• UK Climate Impacts Programme climate

change scenarios www.ukcip.org.uk

• Describes a range of variables:

temperature, precipitation, sea level and

climatic variability

• Low emissions and high emissions

scenarios

• Up to 2100 (three time slices centred on

2020s, 2050s and 2080s)


Climate Change is Unavoidable


Is Man to Blame?

Source: Peter Stott, UKCIP02 Scientific Report


GHG formula or abbreviation

Name Global Warming Potential of each GHG relative to CO2

CO2 Carbon dioxide 1 CH4 Methane 21 N2O Nitrous oxide 310 HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons 140-11,700 PFCs Perfluorocarbons 6,500-9,200 SF6 Sulphur hexafluoride 23,900

The Kyoto basketSix greenhouse gases & their GWPs


Important Sources of GHGs

Gas

Carbon dioxide CO2

Methane CH4

Nitrous oxide N2O

Important sources in the UK

Fossil fuel combustion - transport, energy

production, domestic emissions

Agriculture, waste disposal, leakage from the

gas distribution system, coal mining

Agriculture (fertiliser application), biomass

burning, coal combustion, and some industrial

processes


Projected Changes to Annual Average Temperature in UK


Projected Changes to Seasonal Average Precipitation in UK

Winter Summer


E.g. temperature changes in the East of England

Change in average annual temperature

Source: UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios data


East of England Study

www.sustainability-east.com


Issues for The East of England

• Lack of water resources

• Pressure for development

• Coastal/fluvial/flash flooding

• Subsidence

• Higher annual temperatures

• Reduced soil moisture levels

• Sea level rise

• Coastal erosion

• Extreme events


Climate Change in Herts

• Hotter drier summers; milder wetter winters

• Extreme high temperatures more frequent

• Extreme winter precipitation more frequent

• Significant decrease in soil moisture content

• Increase in thermal growing season


UK GHG Inventory• 1x1km National Datasets

– Traffic– Population– EUETS (Pollution Inventory)– Employment– Agriculture– Gas Supply– Electricity Supply

• Point Sources– (Refineries)– (Power Stations)– (Coke Production)– Industrial/Institutional Combustion– Cement Plant– Other Processes


Local Authority Defra/DTI CO2 Inventory

• Commissioned by Defra and carried out by Netcen to produce a set of experimental statistics of carbon dioxide emissions for local authority (NUTS4) and Government Office Region (NUTS1) areas for the year 2003 now updated for 2004

• Makes use of DTI local gas and electricity consumption data (electricity data are experimental)

– DTI’s commitment to “collect and make available data on the pattern of energy use in local areas, to enable local authorities and regional bodies to target activity more effectively”

• Study provided nationally consistent carbon dioxide emission estimates at local authority and regional level. The data represent the primary emissions from the consumption of fuel or other process activities that emit CO2 plus the emissions relevant to the production of consumed electricity.


CO2 emissions by Local Authority per capita in 2003 (in kt CO2)

Domestic CO2 emissions by Local Authority for 2003 (in kt CO2/km2)

Note: Emission intensity (per unit area) rather than total emission


2006 local CO2 Emissions Basis• Emission by Source

– Domestic– Transport– Industrial and Commercial Combustion– Agriculture– Industrial Production Processes– Refineries– Power Stations– Coke Production

• Emissions by Energy End User– Domestic– Transport– Industrial and Commercial Combustion– Agriculture– Industrial Production Processes– Refineries– Power Stations– Coke Production


Addressing Everyday use and CO2 Emissions


We all contribute to Climate Change


Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change

• The Nottingham Declaration is a

voluntary pledge to address the issues

of climate change. It represents a high-

level, broad statement of commitment

that any council can make to its own

community.

• Over 200 Councils now signed up

• The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack

was released July 2006


The Two Responses to Climate Change

• Mitigation of climate change

slowing down global warming by reducing

greenhouse gas emissions

• Adaptation to climate change

responding to the projected impacts of

climate change


Mitigation

Adaptation

CHPEfficient cooling for buildings

Hydrogen fuel cells

Efficient cooling for transport

Insulation

Solar energy

Flood defences

Water efficiency

Emissions trading

Heatwave plans

Stronger foundations

Reduction in flying


Adaptation Mitigation

Description Actions which help us

prepare for changes in our

climate

Actions which help us reduce

our greenhouse gas

emissions

Examples • Improving flood defences

• Designing homes and

infrastructure for higher

temperatures

• Improving water efficiency

• Improving energy efficiency

• Renewable energies

• Using private cars less

Geography • Locally • Globally

Time scale • Short-long term • Long-term (>40 yrs)


Using the Nottingham Declaration Action Pack

• The structure of NDAP supports authority-wide climate action plans, but it is designed for flexibility

• You can enter at different points in the process, building on any existing work, or picking the ‘low-hanging fruit’ – issues of particular concern for your authority

planning and partnership panel – 9 march 2007 john rumble sustainability team leader forward...

Documents

local areas

local authority nuts4

local authorities

emissions relevant

primary emissions

kt co2 domestic co2

high emissions scenariosup

energy production