planning a collaborative process to establish a mutually agreed upon plan that we are all committed...
TRANSCRIPT
Planning for the Future
Nicety or Necessity?
PlanningA collaborative process to establish a mutually agreed upon plan that we are all committed to fulfill for the long term viability of our region.
How we make our dreams come true!
Or
KeysCollaborative» Everyone» Citizens» Professionals» Elected Officials» Military» And others
KeysMutually» Buy in» Input» Part of the process» No Dictates
KeysLong Term» Today» Tomorrow» Future Reality
Anchors» Military
USMC
USMC
AF
Army
Anchors» Military» Agriculture» Military Support» Tourism» Quality of Life» Climate» Recreational Opportunities
Today, same as tomorrow?
Economic Anchors
ProtectThe Anchors of the Future
Economic Anchors
How and Why?
Growth will OccurChange will Come
Onslow Today
2000 2010 2020
150,348
185,304
2.3% Average Yearly Growth
Onslow Today
2000 2010 2020
150,348
185,304
222,365Using
2% Average Yearly Growth
Caveats» Assumes same growth
2000-2007 was without the Growth Spurt
2010-2020 could see reduction in Force
» Assumes no out-migration
Growth Impact» Assume 2% Per Year» 37,061 Increase in population» 3.1 Average Family Size (City)» 11,955 Homes Needed» Assume 6 units per Acre» 1,993 Acres Needed» + 1,000 Acres for schools, roads,
businesses» 2,993 Acres needed for new
population
Growth Impact» Assume 4% Per Year» 74,122 Increase in population» 3.1 Average Family Size (City)» 23,910Homes Needed» Assume 6 units per Acre» 3,985 Acres Needed» + 1,000 Acres for schools, roads,
businesses» 4,985 Acres needed for new
population
Among the most productive agricultural lands in the State
NC’s Eastern Region
Reality Check8,600 Acres
Converted from Agriculture to Development
2002 – 2007(Onslow Farm and Forestry Study)
Onslow456,733 AcresWithout municipalities
»142,128 Acres Military»516 Acres NC State»43,590 Forest Acres»175,184 Acres Agricultural»95,313 Acres Developed
Land Use Plans»Must Protect the Bases»Agricultural Land Uses Protect the Bases»Decisions must Protect the Bases
Growth»Taxes …»Services …»Home Values
Onslow County»2010 Median House Value»$127,000
Taxes Produced
FY00 FY11City $8.2M $18.5
MCount
y$28M $69M
TaxNeutral
Equal to Services
NegativeLess than Services
PositiveMore than Services
Residential PropertiesCity of Jacksonville
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2,640 6,920 1,945
To 100K To 200K To 300K 300K +
58%22%
Slide #26
3153%
16%
11,851 Parcels
Slide #26
Why Did Florida Grow?
Marketing
15 Dollars a Month15 Dollars Down
15 Years
1950’s & 1960’s Florida Land Sales
Abundant Land» 38,255,670 Acres Available
Great Climate» Mild Winters» No Snow» Reasonable Summer
Air Conditioning Mosquito Control
Political Climate» Friendly to Development» Progress Oriented» Tax Base Increase Sought» Land Sales» No State Income Tax
Quality of Life» Educational Facilities» Medical Facilities» Recreational Opportunities» Natural Resources
National News»Cuban Missile Crisis»Cuban Migration»Hurricanes»Disney World
October 1, 1971
Interstates» I-75» I-95» I-10» I-4
Airports»Miami»Tampa»Orlando»Ft
Myers
Southwest Florida International Airport
Midfield Terminal:» Opened 2005» $437 Million» 3 Concourses» 28 Gates» Designed for 10 Million Passengers a Year
Passengers
2000
5,207,212
2005
7,518,169
2006
7,643,217
2007
8,000,000
National Economy» Baby Boomers» Great Wealth» 2nd Homes» Investments
Baby Boomers» Silver-Haired Lining
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
16000000
17000000
18000000
19000000
20000000
Results: Florida Housing» 1002 Units per day 2000-
2006Housing Units
2006 8,533,419
2000 6,337,929
Increase
2,195,490
Results: SW Florida Housing» 124 New Units per Day
Housing Units
County 2006 % of State
2000 % Change
Collier 187,606 2.2% 102,973 83%
Lee 341,150 5.3% 188,599 81%
Charlotte 96,051 1.1%
63,86452%
Hendry 13,081 .1% 10,850 20%
637,888 7.5% 366,286 74%
Results: Lee County
Housing Units
Year Single Family Multiple Family Total Units
2005 10,469 7,393 17,862
2006 7,440 4,076 11,516
2007 2,357 1,664 4,021
Results: Collier County
Housing Units
Year Single Family Multiple Family Total Units
2005 3,028 1,638 4,666
2006 2,560 2,141 4,701
2007 1,159 1,037 2,196
National Housing Crisis
Results
ResultsLee & Collier
ForeclosuresHomes and Condos2008-2010
About 72,000Foreclosures
Results72,000 X 2.5 People Per Household
180,000Population Impact
Impact to the Tax Base
The FutureFlorida 2060
» Research Project 1000 Friends of
Florida Geo Planning Center
of University of Florida
Issues
Period 2005-2060
Starting Population 17,872,295
Ending Population 35,814,574
New Population 17,942,279
Acres Required 6,953,264
Issues2005 2060 Difference
Conservation10,254,19
410,254,19
4
Open Water 2,473,516 2,473,516
Urban Development
5,998,523 12,951,787
+ 6,953,264
Agriculture, Pristine Areas and
Other Undeveloped Lands
19,529,437
12,576,173
- 6,953,264
38,255,670
38,255,670
What Have We Learned?Reflections
Planning is not Enough
»1975 Comprehensive Planning Act»1983 Growth Management Act
1
Priorities Change as the Players Change
2
Commitment must be long term
3Common Vision4Education & Buy In Must be continuous5
Diversity is Essential6Make Room for All Goals7
An Out-of-balance Economy is bad8
»Too Hot»Too Cold
Anchors must be Protected9
By ActionsNot Planning