pittsburgh and allegheny county: portrait of an aging society (richard schulz)

8/7/2019 Pittsburgh and Allegheny County: Portrait of an Aging Society (Richard Schulz)

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This Presentation

s

Regional Demographic Change in SW PAs Concentration of Elderly and NORCs

s Elderly and Race

s Economic Impact of Elderlys Elderly Migration

s Local Aging Trends and Projections


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s

Regional net out-migration peaked at over 50,000per year in 1983.s Out-Migration was very age Selective: younger left,

older stayed.s

Region soon became one of the oldest regions inthe country.s Workforce migration left region skill-deficient for

new/emerging industries.

s Region still has a unique older demographicaffecting current population trends.

Demographic Impact and Legacy


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Annual Net Migration Rates by Major Age GroupPittsburgh Region 1980-2000

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

20-39

40-65

65+


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Natural Population Change:Births Minus Deaths (2000-2006) as % of Population

Deaths exceed births for Pittsburgh


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s Concentration of elderly uneven within regions Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities (NORCs)

throughout region

s Specific sub-regions highly concentrated elderly population

s Public Finance issues: Reliance on property taxes/impact on fixed income households

Service needs of elderly population

Location of public services for elderly

Concentration of Elderly Within Region


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Concentration of Elderly Population (Age 65+)Southwestern Pennsylvania Municipalities, 2000


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Highest Elderly Concentrations (Age 65 and over)Allegheny County Municipalities, 2000

Municipality TotalPopulation

Age 65 +

Sewickley Heights 981 277 28.2%

Braddock Hills 1,998 563 28.2%

South Versailles 338 91 26.9%

Versailles 1,730 461 26.6%

Cheswick 1,899 506 26.6%

Wilkins 6,917 1,775 25.7%

Bridgeville 5,341 1,368 25.6%

Collier 5,265 1,332 25.3%

Oakmont 6,911 1,737 25.1%

Whitehall 14,444 3,512 24.3%

White Oak 8,474 2,057 24.3%Churchill 3,566 862 24.2%

Clairton 8,491 2,039 24.0%

Port Vue 4,228 1,013 24.0%

Allegheny County 1,281,666 228,285 17.8%

US 281,421,906 34,978,972 12.4%


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Elderly and Race

sDifferential disability status by racesElderly poverty concentrated by race

sProjections differ by race


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Disability Status by Race, 2000

US Pennsylvania Allegheny City of Pittsburgh

White Black White Black White Black White Black

Any Disability 37.5% 50.5% 36.0% 48.5% 35.0% 49.6% 39.7% 51.5%

PhysicalDisability 25.1% 33.8% 23.1% 32.1% 22.4% 33.4% 25.9% 35.4%

Self CareDisability

7.6% 13.1% 7.1% 12.0% 7.2% 10.6% 8.4% 11.3%

Go OutsideDisability

16.5% 26.0% 16.7% 25.0% 17.2% 24.2% 19.5% 25.2%

EmploymentDisability

3.4% 6.3% 2.9% 5.1% 2.6% 5.5% 2.9% 6.0%


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Poverty Status by Gender Age and RaceAllegheny County vs. US, 2006

Men WomenWhitePopulation

UnitedStates

Allegheny

County

UnitedStates

Allegheny

County

55 to 64 years 6.7% 5.5% 8.1% 7.3%65 to 74 years 5.5% 4.2% 8.3% 6.7%

75 years andover

6.5% 6.9% 11.9% 13.1%

BlackPopulation

55 to 64 years 16.0% 16.1% 19.1% 26.1%

65 to 74 years 15.4% 16.4% 21.7% 19.0%

75 years and

over

17.2% 6.8% 27.4% 16.4%


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Elderly Return Migration

s Elderly migration flows both in and out of regions Impact on local service demand

s Factor in creating Naturally Occurring RetirementCommunities (NORCs)

s Elderly return migrants Older

More likely to be widowed

More disabled


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Pittsburgh to Florida Elderly Migration Flows:1995-2000


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Age Distribution of Migration Flows


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Economic Impact of Elderly

s Retirement income and medical costs funded nationallyrepresent income gain for region.

s Pittsburgh Region: $6.2 billion in Retirement/DisabilityBenefits(2005)

s Medicare Benefits in Pittsburgh Region: $4.6 billion (2005)

s Together $10.6 billion or roughly 10% of regional GrossRegional Product.

s Employment and investment impact concentrated inspecific industries.


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Allegheny County Elderly Forecast

s Elderly (Age 65+) Population peaked in 1995s Decline Through 2012

s Older Cohorts will show same pattern

75+ population peaking now 85+ growing now/ peak around 2014

s Allegheny County in 1995: 18.5% Age 65 andover. Where US is projected to be in 2026.

s Health impacts on future elderly.


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Allegheny County Elderly Population (Age 65+) 1990-2020

First Peak in 1995


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Conclusions

Mid 1990s Elderly Concentration in Pittsburghregion (18.5%) where nation will be around 2026.

Forecasted population changes will differ acrossage cohorts - impacting service demand anddelivery.

Local concentrations of elderly can be far above orbelow regional/national averages.

Post baby boom changes will also be significant.

pittsburgh and allegheny county: portrait of an aging society (richard schulz)

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