pisa 2015 - northern ireland - transinfo.co.uk€¦ · according to pisa, 30 points in an...

Transinfo

2017

PISA 2015 - Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland

Programme for International Student Assessment

www.transinfo.co.uk

Programme for International Student Assessment 2015

Index1.1 The Northern Ireland sample

2.1 Science

3.1 Reading

4.1 Mathematics

5.1 UK comparison

6.1 Progress of highest and lowest achievers

7.1 Inequality performance

8.1 Gender differences

9.1 Socio-economic status

9.2 Resilience in science

Sectoral differences

Additional countries results

1.1 The Northern Ireland sample

10.1

10.2

Notes

1. According to PISA, 30 points in an assessment equates to one year of schooling.

2. PISA assessments are carried out every three years, 2015 being the most recent with data reports being released in

December 2016.

3. Computer-based assessments were used in 2012 for the first time, replacing paper-based assessments. PISA

acknowldges this has negatively impacted on the performance of girls and individual boys.

All figures used in this publication are taken from PISA assessments and used to produce visual representations for the

three disciplines of science, reading and mathematics from the perspective of Northern Ireland.

It is not the intention to repoduce findings that are published elsewhere rather than juxtapose and present information in

such a way that additional thinking is brought to PISA outcomes.

The reader is asked to reach beyond a 'league table' approach and to consider the health of education across Northern

Ireland, whether that health differs across the disciplines and what are the longer term trends. Like all data,

contradictions are exposed and 'disturbing realities' are uncovered. This is as it should be but the point, as is often the

case, is how do we bring about necessary change?

The official PISA 2015 report for NI can be accessed here:

www.education-ni.gov.uk/publications/2015-northern-ireland-pisa-results

The following table is derived from Table 7.1 of the NI PISA report (see link above) and suggests that 2,376 students and

92 schools participated from Grammar and non-selective sectors.

On page 234 of the report, under the heading 'Response rates in PISA 2015' it is stated that "A total of 95 schools and

2,401 pupils completed the PISA study in Northern Ireland." This means that 25 pupils from 3 independent schools also

participated.

Management type Pupils Schools Average Pupils Schools Average Pupils Schools Average

Controlled 356 15 23.7 192 7 27.4 548 22 24.9

Catholic maintained 738 29 25.4 0 0 738 29 25.4

Voluntary 0 0 872 32 27.3 872 32 27.3

Other 218 9 24.2 0 0 218 9 24.2

Total 1312 53 24.8 1064 39 27.3 2376 92 25.8

Non-selective Grammar Total

Sample sizes for Grammar and non-selective schools

www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 2


2.1 ScienceScience

Reading

Mathematics

556 535 564

538 516 532

534 519 520

532 497 542

531 526 511

529 509 544

528 527 516

525 487 495

523 527 548

518 494 531

516 517 524

513 509 495

513 505 510

512 500 493

510 503 494

509 498 492

509 509 506

509 503 512

506 492 521

503 521 504

502 499 507

502 500 511

501 506 504

501 498 492

500 497 493

498 513 502

497 493 491

496 497 470

495 485 497

495 499 493

493 500 494

493 493 490

493 487 492

493 496 486

490 488 482

487 495 494

485 477 478

483 481 486

481 485 490

The average score for Northern Ireland in Science is 500. According to PISA outcomes,

students in Singapore exhibit two more years of schooling (60 points) than NI students.

Singapore

Japan

Estonia

Chinese Taipei

Finland

Macao (China)

Canada

Vietnam

Hong Kong

B-S-J-G (China)

Korea

New Zealand

Slovenia

England

Australia

United Kingdom

Germany

Netherlands

Switzerland

Ireland

Belgium

Denmark

Poland

Portugal

N Ireland

Norway

Scotland

United States

Austria

France

Sweden

OECD average

Czech Republic

Spain

Latvia

Russia

Wales

Luxembourg

Italy

300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575

300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575



3.1 ReadingScience

Reading

Mathematics

556 535 564

528 527 516

523 527 548

531 526 511

503 521 504

534 519 520

516 517 524

538 516 532

498 513 502

529 509 544

513 509 495

509 509 506

501 506 504

513 505 510

510 503 494

509 503 512

512 500 493

502 500 511

493 500 494

502 499 507

495 499 493

509 498 492

501 498 492

532 497 542

500 497 493

496 497 470

493 496 486

487 495 494

518 494 531

497 493 491

493 493 490

506 492 521

490 488 482

525 487 495

493 487 492

495 485 497

481 485 490

483 481 486

485 477 478

The average score in reading for NI is 497. This performance is very similar to that of

England (500) and Scotland (493).

Singapore

Canada

Hong Kong

Finland

Ireland

Estonia

Korea

Japan

Norway

Macao (China)

New Zealand

Germany

Poland

Slovenia

Australia

Netherlands

England

Denmark

Sweden

Belgium

France

United Kingdom

Portugal

Chinese Taipei

N Ireland

United States

Spain

Russia

B-S-J-G (China)

Scotland

OECD average

Switzerland

Latvia

Vietnam

Czech Republic

Austria

Italy

Luxembourg

Wales

300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575

300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575



4.1 MathematicsScience

Reading

Mathematics

556 535 564

523 527 548

529 509 544

532 497 542

538 516 532

518 494 531

516 517 524

506 492 521

534 519 520

528 527 516

509 503 512

531 526 511

502 500 511

513 505 510

502 499 507

509 509 506

503 521 504

501 506 504

498 513 502

495 485 497

513 509 495

525 487 495

510 503 494

493 500 494

487 495 494

512 500 493

495 499 493

500 497 493

509 498 492

501 498 492

493 487 492

497 493 491

493 493 490

481 485 490

493 496 486

483 481 486

490 488 482

485 477 478

496 497 470

The average score in mathematics for NI and England is 493. Singapore dominates again

with an average interpreted as being over two years of additional schooling.

Singapore

Hong Kong

Macao (China)

Chinese Taipei

Japan

B-S-J-G (China)

Korea

Switzerland

Estonia

Canada

Netherlands

Finland

Denmark

Slovenia

Belgium

Germany

Ireland

Poland

Norway

Austria

New Zealand

Vietnam

Australia

Sweden

Russia

England

France

N Ireland

United Kingdom

Portugal

Czech Republic

Scotland

OECD average

Italy

Spain

Luxembourg

Latvia

Wales

United States

300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575

300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575



5.1 UK comparison

Science

Reading

Mathematics

l Wales

l England

l Scotland

l N Ireland

l OECD Average

Across the three disciplines, all four 'UK

nations' have declined since PISA was

carried out in 2000.

If the earlier assessment scores are

accurate, this would suggest for instance

that the average for mathematics in NI has

fallen by almost one year of additional

schooling over the period 2000 to 2006.

Since 2006 the average has remained at

just under 495.

Note that Wales only began to engage with

PISA in 2003 - the same year that the

results for England were deemed not

reliable.

450

465

480

495

510

525

540

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

450

465

480

495

510

525

540

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

450

465

480

495

510

525

540

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015



6.1 Progress of highest and lowest achievers

Science 90th percentile 10th percentile

Reading 90th percentile 10th percentile

Mathematics 90th percentile 10th percentile

2012 saw the introduction of computer based testing hence the dashed line. l N Ireland

n OECD Average

The 10th and 90th percentile are benchmark proxies for lower and higher achievers respectively. This translates into

measuring how the bottom 10% and top 10% of achievers perform.

Across the three disciplines there has been a steady decline of performance amongst the highest achievers in NI,

narrowing the gap with the OECD average. Throughout the same period there has been a general increase of performance

amongst the lowest achievers, surpassing the OECD average at the 10th percentile.

International comparisons of NI student achievement suggests that lower achievers are performing better with their

international peers than higher achievers. This finding contradicts the common perception that top pupils perform better

in NI and amongst lower achievers there is a long tail of underachievement.

The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile is defined as inequality.

590

605

620

635

650

2006 2009 2012 2015

590

605

620

635

650

2006 2009 2012 2015

590

605

620

635

650

2006 2009 2012 2015

350

365

380

395

2006 2009 2012 2015

350

365

380

395

2006 2009 2012 2015

350

365

380

395

2006 2009 2012 2015



7.1 Inequality performanceThe difference between the 90th and 10th percentile is defined as inequality. l N Ireland

n OECD Average

Science Reading Mathematics

The fall in performance in higher achieving students and the improvement for lower achieving students means that the

spread of inequality has narrowed for each discipline. For instance in science in 2015 about 240 points separates the top

and bottom 10 percentiles compared to over 290 nine years earlier. In each discipline the level of inequality has fallen

below the average for OECD countries. The NI education system is a selective one and these outcomes suggests an

appearance of less inequality than non-selective systems. However it can be asserted that the NI system is not catering

for higher achieving students - a feature that is at odds with a main rationale for selection in the first instance.

The adjacent tables shows

international comparisons in

inequality. Countries marked *

have significant differences

with NI.

In Scotland therefore, the level

of inequality is 247 points for

science - a difference of 8.2

school years from the top 10%

of achievers to the lowest 10%.

200

220

240

260

280

300

2006 2009 2012 2015

200

220

240

260

280

300

2006 2009 2012 2015

200

220

240

260

280

300

2006 2009 2012 2015

Science Pts Years Reading Pts Years Maths Pts Years

New Zealand * 273 9.1 France * 293 9.8 China * 276 9.2

China * 271 9.0 China * 283 9.4 South Korea * 258 8.6

Singapore * 271 9.0 Luxembourg * 279 9.3 Belgium * 255 8.5

Sweden * 269 9.0 New Zealand * 274 9.1 France * 249 8.3

France * 268 8.9 Australia * 265 8.8 Portugal * 249 8.3

Australia * 267 8.9 Austria * 265 8.8 Austria * 247 8.2

Netherlands * 266 8.9 Belgium * 263 8.8 Singapore * 247 8.2

Belgium * 265 8.8 Czech Republic * 262 8.7 Switzerland * 247 8.2

England * 264 8.8 Netherlands * 262 8.7 England * 245 8.2

Luxembourg * 264 8.8 Sweden * 262 8.7 Luxembourg * 244 8.1

Germany * 260 8.7 United States * 259 8.6 Australia * 242 8.1

Switzerland * 259 8.6 Germany * 258 8.6 Italy * 241 8.0

United States * 258 8.6 Singapore * 257 8.6 New Zealand * 238 7.9

Austria * 256 8.5 Norway * 255 8.5 Netherlands * 237 7.9

Czech Republic 251 8.4 England * 254 8.5 Czech Republic * 235 7.8

Norway 251 8.4 Switzerland * 254 8.5 Sweden * 233 7.8

Finland 250 8.3 South Korea * 251 8.4 Hong Kong * 232 7.7

Slovenia 250 8.3 Italy * 244 8.1 Germany * 230 7.7

South Korea 248 8.3 Portugal * 240 8.0 United States * 230 7.7

Scotland 247 8.2 Finland * 239 8.0 Slovenia * 228 7.6

Japan 243 8.1 Slovenia * 239 8.0 Canada * 227 7.6

Portugal 241 8.0 Canada * 238 7.9 Japan * 227 7.6

Canada 240 8.0 Japan * 238 7.9 Poland * 226 7.5

Italy 240 8.0 Scotland 235 7.8 Spain 220 7.3

Northern Ireland 239 8.0 Poland 231 7.7 Norway * 219 7.3

Poland 235 7.8 Russia 227 7.6 Scotland 219 7.3

Wales 235 7.8 Estonia 226 7.5 Vietnam 215 7.2

Denmark 234 7.8 Denmark 225 7.5 Russia 214 7.1

Estonia 233 7.8 Spain 224 7.5 Finland 210 7.0

Republic of Ireland 231 7.7 Republic of Ireland 222 7.4 Denmark 209 7.0

Spain 231 7.7 Latvia 221 7.4 Estonia 209 7.0

Russia * 215 7.2 Hong Kong 220 7.3 Republic of Ireland 206 6.9

Latvia * 214 7.1 Northern Ireland 220 7.3 Macao 204 6.8

Macao * 210 7.0 Wales 219 7.3 Northern Ireland 204 6.8

Hong Kong * 209 7.0 Macao 212 7.1 Wales 201 6.7

Vietnam * 196 6.5 Vietnam * 187 6.2 Latvia 200 6.7



8.1 Gender differencesThe difference in gender performance

across the three disciplines in NI has

coalesced over the four periods of

assessment. In part this has been the

result of intoducing computer-based

assessment.

The biggest gender gap is in reading with

girls outperforming boys.

Across science and mathematics boys slightly outperform boys in NI and most other countries. However girls outperform

boys significantly in reading both NI and internationally. This would explain to some extent why girls outperform boys at

GCSE almost entirely across the curriculum.

Sci Boys

Sci Girls

Math Boys

Math Girls

Read Boys

Read Girls

470

480

490

500

510

520

2006 2009 2012 2015

Count r y Gap Count r y Gap Count r y Gap

Austria 19 19 Wales -11 -11 Austria 27 27

Italy 17 17 Ireland -12 -12 Italy 20 20

Japan 14 14 Japan -13 -13 Germany 17 17

Belgium 12 12 N Ireland -14 -14 Ireland 16 16

Ireland 11 11 Belgium -16 -16 Spain 16 16

Germany 10 10 Italy -16 -16 Belgium 14 14

Portugal 10 10 China -16 -16 Japan 14 14

China 9 9 Portugal -17 -17 England 12 12

Czech Rep 9 9 United States -20 -20 Switzerland 12 12

Luxembourg 8 8 Austria -20 -20 Poland 11 11

United States 7 7 Singapore -20 -20 Luxembourg 11 11

Spain 7 7 Spain -20 -20 Portugal 10 10

Singapore 6 6 Germany -21 -21 Wales 10 10

Poland 6 6 Scotland -21 -21 Denmark 9 9

Switzerland 6 6 Luxembourg -21 -21 Canada 9 9

Denmark 6 6 Denmark -22 -22 New Zealand 9 9

Wales 5 5 England -23 -23 United States 9 9

New Zealand 5 5 Netherlands -24 -24 Czech Rep 7 7

Russia 4 4 Vietnam -25 -25 Scotland 7 7

Netherlands 4 4 Switzerland -25 -25 N Ireland 7 7

Estonia 3 3 Czech Rep -26 -26 France 6 6

Norway 3 3 Russia -26 -26 Russia 6 6

N Ireland 3 3 Canada -26 -26 China 6 6

Australia 2 2 Estonia -28 -28 Australia 6 6

France 2 2 Hong Kong -28 -28 Estonia 5 5

Scotland 1 1 France -29 -29 Slovenia 4 4

Canada 1 1 Poland -29 -29 Netherlands 2 2

England 0 0 Macao -32 -32 Hong Kong 2 2

Hong Kong -1 -1 Australia -32 -32 Singapore 0 0

Vietnam -3 -3 New Zealand -32 -32 Latvia -2 -2

Sweden -5 -5 Sweden -39 -39 Sweden -2 -2

Slovenia -6 -6 Norway -40 -40 Norway -2 -2

Macao -8 -8 South Korea -41 -41 Vietnam -3 -3

South Korea -10 -10 Latvia -42 -42 South Korea -7 -7

Latvia -11 -11 Slovenia -43 -43 Finland -8 -8

Finland -19 -19 Finland -47 -47 Macao -8 -8

Science MathematicsReading

Girls stronger Boys stronger



9.1 Socio-economic status

Science Reading Mathematics

9.2 Resilience in science

Across the three disciplines NI students from the most advantaged 25 per cent of families score significantly higher than

the other three NI groups. There is 70-80 points differnce (up to two and two thirds years of schooling) between students

from the richest backgrounds compared to pupils from the most disadvantaged backgrounds.

A student is denoted as resilient if their socio-economic status is in

the poorest 25% of their own country but they perform in the top

quarter of all students in the PISA study.

According to PISA “there is no evidence that countries with

academically selective schooling systems have a greater proportion

of resilient pupils.”

450

475

500

525

550

Poorest

25%

Second

Quartile

Third

Quartile

Richest

25%

450

475

500

525

550

Poorest

25%

Second

Quartile

Third

Quartile

Richest

25%

450

475

500

525

550

Poorest

25%

Second

Quartile

Third

Quartile

Richest

25%

Country Resilence %

Vietnam 76 76

Macao 65 65

Hong Kong 62 62

Japan 49 49

Singapore 49 49

Estonia 48 48

Taiwan 46 46

China 45 45

Finland 43 43

South Korea 40 40

Canada 39 39

Portugal 38 38

England 36 36

Poland 35 35

Slovenia 35 35

Germany 34 34

Australia 33 33

United States 32 32

Netherlands 31 31

Ireland 30 30

New Zealand 30 30

Northern Ireland 30 30

Switzerland 29 29

Wales 29 29

Denmark 28 28

Belgium 27 27

France 27 27

Italy 27 27

Scotland 27 27

Austria 26 26

Norway 26 26

Russia 26 26

Czech Republic 25 25

Sweden 25 25

Luxembourg 21 21



10.1 Sectoral differences

Grammar

Non-selective

10.2 Additional countries resultsScience

Reading

Mathematics

477 470 477 Hungary

475 472 478 Lithuania

475 487 464 Croatia

475 475 456 CABA (Argentina)

473 482 488 Iceland

467 479 470 Israel

465 447 479 Malta

461 453 475 Slovak Republic

455 467 454 Greece

447 459 423 Chile

446 432 441 Bulgaria

437 434 427 United Arab Emirates

435 437 418 Uruguay

435 434 444 Romania

433 443 437 Cyprus1

428 416 420 Moldova

427 405 413 Albania

425 428 420 Turkey

The following countries also participated in PISA but typically performed lower

across the disciplines and don't appear in the visuals above.

The difference in performance between Grammar and

non-selective schools in NI for 2015:

Science: 96

Reading: 86

Mathematics: 84

This means that students in Grammar schools are on

avarge ahead by 3 years of additional schooling.

Science Reading Maths 450

480

510

540

570

425 427 417 Trinidad and Tobago

421 409 415 Thailand

420 427 400 Costa Rica

418 402 402 Qatar

416 425 390 Colombia

416 423 408 Mexico

411 427 418 Montenegro

411 401 404 Georgia

409 408 380 Jordan

403 397 386 Indonesia

401 407 377 Brazil

397 398 387 Peru

386 347 396 Lebanon

386 361 367 Tunisia

384 352 371 FYROM

378 347 362 Kosovo

376 350 360 Algeria

332 358 328 Dominican Republic


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