picture: sony - semi...technology (epitaxy, chips) massively parallel and high accuracy pick and...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2017
From Technologies to Market
MicroLED Displays:
Global Trends & Opportunities for Equipment and
Material Suppliers
From Technologies to MarketPicture: Sony
SEMICON EUROPAJean-Christophe ELOY - CEO - Yole
Développement
2
AGENDA
• Presentation of Yole Développement - From Technologies to Market
• What Are MicroLED Displays?
• MicroLED Challenges
• MicroLED Competitive Landscape
• MicroLED Applications
• Opportunities for Equipment and Material Suppliers
• Conclusion
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
3
Presentation of Yole Développement
From Technologies to Market
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
4
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Our 30+ analysts operate in the following areas.
Compound Semi.
Imaging
Photonics
Power Electronics
Displays
Solid State Lighting (LED, OLED…)
Advanced Packaging
MEMS & Sensors
RF (Devices & Technologies)
Advanced Substrates
MedTech
Manufacturing
Batteries / Energy Management©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
5
4 BUSINESS MODELS
Consulting and Analysis
• Market data & research, marketing analysis
• Technology analysis
• Strategy consulting
• Reverse engineering & costing
• Patent analysis
www.yole.fr
Reports
• Market & Technology reports
• Patent Investigation and patent infringement riskanalysis
• Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis
• Cost Simulation Tool
www.i-Micronews.com/reports
Financial services
• M&A (buying and selling)
• Due diligence
• Fundraising
• Maturation of companies
• IP portfolio management & optimization
www.yolefinance.com / www.bmorpho.com
Media
• i-Micronews.com website
• @Micronews e-newsletter
• Technology magazines
• Communication & webcast services
• Events
www.i-Micronews.com
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
6
A GROUP OF COMPANIES
Market, technology and
strategy consulting
www.yole.fr
Manufacturing costs analysisTeardown and reverse engineering
Cost simulation toolswww.systemplus.fr
IP analysisPatent assessment
www.knowmade.fr
Innovation & Business makerwww.bmorpho.com
M&A operationsDue diligenceswww.yolefinance.com
Test & Measurement Expertise
Research & Innovationwww.piseo.fr
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
7
DISPLAY ACTIVITIES: RECENT REPORTS
Off the shelf
reports and custom analysis.
Available:
Visit: www.i-micronews.com©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
8
DISPLAY ACTIVITIES: COST MODELING, TEAR DOWN ANALYSIS AND REVERSE COSTING
Cost Simulation
Tools
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
10
LCD VS EMISSIVE DISPLAYS
LCD
Illustrations: Ignis Technology
Emissive (e.g: OLED)
Encapsulation
LCD
Light is generated by an LED backlight and goes
through a matrix of liquid crystal “light switches” and colour filters constituting the individual subpixel.
Emissive
Each sub-pixel is a tiny light emitter which brightness
can be individually controlled
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
(transistor matrix)
11
WHAT IS A MicroLED DISPLAY?
Self emitting displays ( just like OLED) that use individual, small LED chips as theemitters.
Red, Green, Blue LED Epiwafers
Chip singulation Sorting and Pick and place + hybridization/connection to the transistor matrix that controls individual pixels
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
12
POTENTIAL MICROLED BENEFITS
• Low power consumption.
• Perfect black + high brightness = High Dynamic Range (contrast).
• Wide color gamut.
• Long lifetime, environmental stability.
• High Resolution/Pixel density.
• Fast refresh rates.
• Wide viewing angles.
• Curved/flexible backplanes.
• Integration of sensors within the display front-plane.
Smartwatches and wearables
Virtual reality
Large video displays
TV
Smartphones
Laptops and convertibles
Automotive HUD
Augmented/Mixed Reality
Sony
LG
Samsung
HP
BMW
Microsoft
Oculus
Apple
Tablets
Acer
MicroLED TV prototype (Sony, CES 2012)
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
13
SO, THIS IS IT?
Do we have the best display
technology ever?
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
15
MICROLED DISPLAY MANUFACTURING CHALLENGES
LED µDisplays
LED Technology
(epitaxy, chips)
Massively Parallel and
High Accuracy Pick
and Place Technologies
Light extraction and beam shaping
Color Conversion
Backplane hybridization
Defect Management
& Testing
Supply Chain
Multiple challenges need to be tackled to enable the µLED display opportunity
While very promising in terms of performance, there are still multiple manufacturing challenges that need to be addressed to enable cost effective, high volume
manufacturing of µLED Displays.
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
16
MICROLED DISPLAY ASSEMBLY
4K Display (TV, smartphone…): 24.9 million µLED chips
• Traditional pick and placeequipment ~ 1000 hours 41days…
• Small chip handling (<10 µm)?
• Accuracy?
Need for technologies to handle 1000’s
chips simultaneously!
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
17
DEFECT MANAGEMENT
99.9% 99.9% 20 ppm
99.99% 99.99% 2 ppm
99.999% 99.999% 0.2 ppm
Combined Defect Rate
(in ppm)
µLED Yield Transfer Yield
Epitaxy + chip manufacturing:
dead or dim µLED pixel.
Die not properly picked or placed,
or faulty connection to the
TFT: missing, dead, or
“always-on” pixels.
=X
Most high-end displays are guarantied zero defects©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
18
SUPPLY CHAIN
LED Makers•LED epitaxy.
•Small diameter wafers 4” to 6”
•Cleanroom class 10,000 at best
•Produce components / chips
•Fab CapEx <$500M Mass transfer, assembly, test technologies
•No commercially available equipment.•No supply chain.
Not established yet!
Large scale µLED displays manufacturing?Bringing together disparate technologies and industries.
Cultural and technology chasm
Display Makers•TFT backplanes + LCD/OLED frontplanes
•Large substrates (1 to 10 m2)
•Clean room class 100 -1000
•Semi-finished products (panels)
•Typical fab CapEx for large players: $5 to $10 Billions.
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
20
MICROLED PLAYERS - A LOT OF SMART PEOPLE WORKING ON IT
Increasing activity from all types of companies: display makers, LED makers, semiconductor companies, start ups…
3 8 8 6 614 13 11 10 15
31 32
5664
105
87
37
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Nu
mb
er o
f ap
pli
cati
on
s
Year of application
Patents
Patent families
Granted patents
Patent activity in the field of MicroLED1,570+ patents (500+ patent families*), including 680+ granted patents and 690+ pending patent applications
Note: Due to thedelay between thefiling of patentsand thepublications bypatent offices,usually 18 months,the datacorresponding tothe year 2015 and2016 may not becomplete sincemost patents filedduring these yearsare not publishedyet.
Extension of priority patents
Innovation triggers
First wave of patent extensions
The second wave of patent filings combined to an increase of patent
extensions worldwide is an indication of the technology
maturity
CREEUS6410942 (granted)
Arrays of interconnected LEDs with individual sizes of
less than 30 µm. The purpose of the invention
was to improve light extraction per unit surface
48% CAGR2009-2014
* A patent family is a set of patents filed in multiple countriesby a common inventor(s) to protect a single invention.
Extension of priority patents
Kansas State UniversityUS6410940 (granted)
GaN microdisk LED with 12µmdiameter and
50µmpitch
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
22
HOW DO WE FORECAST?
• Performance, features
• Technology requirements
• Cost requirements
• Incumbent technologies
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
For each application: SWOT analysis applications roadmap adoptions rates forecast
23
Supply Chain
Technology
Performance
SMARTWATCHES: THE LOW HANGING FRUIT?
Differentiating improvement in power
consumption.
CostSmall amount of pixels +
high PPI = low cost
~low volumes / low capex
Doug Marshall
Getting there
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
24
Supply Chain
Technology
Cost
Performance
AUGMENTED / MIXED REALITY: A POTENTIAL KILLER APP
Most AR/VR HMDs feature a darkened shield to reduce the amount of ambient
light.
Microsoft
Only technology that coulddeliver the high brightnessrequired for outdoorapplications.
Need <<$100 per microdisplayfor consumer.
CMOS integration /hybridizationColor conversions issues
Reduced capex, can beaddressed by smaller company,well funded startup
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
25
WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE SHORT TERM?
Finalize technology development
Set up supply chain.
Manufacturing of dedicated equipment
Test and ramp up
First high volume consumer products
2017 2018 2019 2020
More high volume consumer products
?
2021
Niche product only (where µLED performance are highly differentiating)
Remaining technical and manufacturing challenges prove to difficult to
overcome.
µLED remain too expensive & difficult to manufacture for high volume consumer
applications, and or incumbent technology keep improving too fast
Crash and burn: no µLEDs displays?
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
26
Opportunities for Equipment and Material
Suppliers
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
27
REMAINING ROADBLOCKS
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
Assembly Technologies:MicroLED chip architecture:
Epitaxy Defect Management
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
• Need improved clean rooms and reactor cleanliness.
• Improving homogeneity might require single wafer reactors.
• The LED industry's existing infrastructure and equipment are not suitable for µLED: requires better clean rooms (class 100 or better) + high resolution lithography tools (steppers vs mask aligners)
• Challenging alignment and positioning accuracyrequirements.
• Equipment not available commercially.
• Need to develop specific testing and laser repair tools.
• Need to develop specific electrode deposition tools to individually connect pixels.
Others
Tech
no
log
y
• Need improved wavelength homogeneity vs current standards.
• Requires lower epi-defects: cleaner substrates.
• Many applications require µLED die size below 10 µm, as low as 2 µm. At those sizes, efficiency is only 1-10% vs. up to 70% for traditional LEDs. At those levels, µLED can’t deliver on one of their key promises: lower energy consumption.
• Efficiency of massively pick & place (P&P) processes decrease for larger displays with low pixel densities.
• Challenging to manipulate die size below 10µm which are required in most applications.
• Systematic pixel redundancy could increase cost and is not feasible in displays with high pixel density.
• Individual pixel repair is challenging, can be costly and is not doable with monolithic µLED arrays.
• Color conversion: need high flux resistant QDs and/or nano-phosphors.
29
CONCLUSIONS
• MicroLED is inherently more complexthan OLED and LCD.
• MicroLED won’t completely displaceOLED and LCD.
• MicroLED could end up dominating afew niches: wearable, AR/MR/HUD
• MicroLED could compete with OLED onthe very high end of the market invarious other applications…
• …or not.
• In any case, several opportunitiesamong the supply chain for equipmentand material suppliers
Smartwatches and wearables
Virtual reality
Large video displays
TV
Smartphones
Laptops and convertibles
Automotive HUD
Augmented/Mixed Reality
Sony
LG
Samsung
HP
BMW
Microsoft
Oculus
Apple
Tablets
Acer
MicroLED TV prototype (Sony, CES 2012)
©2017 | www.yole.fr | MicroLED Displays
