Photo credit: Joel Ransom, Extension Agronomist -

Cereal Crops, Department of Plant Sciences, NDSU

June 11, 2017 near Hettinger, ND

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145: A. Glenn Hill Center / CPASW Location

6: Memorial Union / Food Court

106: Alumni Center / Banquet Dinner

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A. Glenn Hill Center, NDSU Campus Tuesday, May 22

7:30 AM Room Open

8:30 – 9:15 Conference Welcome

Opening Remarks

Adnan Akyuz, North Dakota State Climatologist, North Dakota State University

Fiona Horsfall, Chief of Climate Services Branch, NOAA National Weather Service

Welcome & Meeting Kick-off

Dean L. Bresciani, President, North Dakota State University

John Murphy, Chief Operations Officer, NOAA National Weather Service

9:15 – 10:45 Session 1: Frequencies and Extremes of Impactful Events Moderator: Beth Hall, Midwestern Regional Climate Center

Hazardous Convective Environments in the North American Regional Reanalysis Aaron Kennedy, University of North Dakota

Communicating Probabilities for the Better Understanding of Flood Risk Ryan Knutsvig, NOAA/NWS WFO Grand Forks

Drought Identification in Cold Climate Regions: How Can Macro-scale Hydrologic Models Assist Drought Analysis? Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar, North Dakota State University

Significant Tornadoes in the Northern Plains: An Environmental and Pattern-Based Climatological Risk Assessment Chauncy Schultz, NOAA/NWS WFO Bismarck

Northern Plains Blizzards in Past and Future Climates Alex Trellinger, University of North Dakota

Drought, Agriculture and Fire Danger monitoring with the NW Climate Toolbox and Climate Engine Katherine Hegewisch, University of Idaho

10:45 – 11:15 Break & Posters

11:15 – 12:30 PM Session 2: Best Practices Moderator: Aaron Kennedy, University of North Dakota

Land, Sea and Homes: Connecting Climate and Communities in western Alaska Richard Thoman, NOAA/NWS Alaska Region

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Value of Decision Analysis on Climate Adaptation Planning: Which Climate Change Adaptation Problems Can Benefit Most from Decision Analysis? Rui Shi, Johns Hopkins University

Toward Accessible, Discoverable, and Usable Crop Insurance Data: Multi-scale Analysis and Visualization of Cause of Loss Julian Reyes, USDA Southwest Climate Hub

Providing Long Range Outlook Summaries to the Climate Community for Decision Support Services Shawn Rossi, NOAA/NWS WFO Hastings

Developing the Delaware Weather Hazard Index Christina Callahan, University of Delaware Center for Environmental Monitoring & Analysis (CEMA)

12:30 – 1:30 Lunch (on your own)

1:30 – 3:15 Session 3: Water Resources Decision Support Services

Moderator: Karen Ryberg, Dakota Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

Utilizing Climate Data to Inform Municipal Planning in the Lower Missouri River Basin Natalie Umphlett, High Plains Regional Climate Center

Use of Quarterly CPC Predictions in Northern California Water Project Operation Maurice Roos, CA Department of Water Resources

A Foundation for Sustained Dialogue to Improve the Utility of Climate Information in Water Management Julie Vano, NCAR

Providing Decision Support Services over the Colorado River Basin Paul Miller, NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

Impact-based Decision Support to Reservoir Operators for Extreme Climate Events Steve Buan, NOAA/NWS North Central River Forecast Center

Development of Prototype National Water Model Soil Moisture Products for Drought Monitoring Mimi Hughes, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES

The Importance of Precipitation QA/QC Holly Reckel, NOAA/NWS North Central River Forecast Center

3:15 – 3:45 Break & Posters

3:45 – 4:30 Keynote Speaker

“Coping With The Changing Climate On The Farm”

Roger Johnson, President of the National Farmers Union

4:30 – 5:00 Daily Wrap Up

5:00 PM Adjourn

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Tuesday Morning Welcome Speaker: Dean L. Bresciani, President, North Dakota State University

Dean L. Bresciani was named North Dakota State University’s 14th president in 2010. Bresciani is well known for his dedication to students and regarded for his thoughtfulness, energy and integrity. He brings to campus the knowledge and experience of a 35-year career and has developed a broad leadership base in the academic, administrative and political aspects of higher education.

A native of Napa Valley, Calif., Bresciani came to NDSU from a Vice President role at Texas A&M University where he also served as a full professor in the department of educational administration. Previous to Texas, he was in similar roles at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Bresciani earned his doctorate in higher education finance, with a doctoral minor in economics, from the University of Arizona, Tucson. He has an array of invited and juried publications and presentations, and broad involvement in higher education associations ranging from business affairs to scholarly research.

Tuesday Morning Kick-off Speaker: John Murphy, COO, NOAA National Weather Service

John D. Murphy is the Chief Operating Officer (COO) of NOAA’s National Weather Service. He has overall responsibility for day-to-day mission execution units responsible for delivering NWS weather, water, climate, and space weather products, services, and information as well as the budgetary planning for 11 National Service Programs. He joined NWS in 2011 after serving more than 29 years with the United States Air Force as a career meteorologist and finally as Commander of the Air Force Weather Agency and Deputy Foreign Policy Advisor to United States Strategic Command.

Tuesday Afternoon Keynote Speaker: Roger Johnson, President, National Farmers Union

Roger Johnson was elected National Farmers Union’s 14th president during the organization’s 107th anniversary convention in 2009. Prior to leading the family farm organization, Johnson, a third-generation family farmer from Turtle Lake, N.D., served as North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner, a position he was first elected to in 1996. From 2007-2008, Johnson served as president of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA). Johnson graduated from North Dakota State University with a degree in agricultural economics. Johnson and his wife, Anita, are the proud parents of three children and have four grandchildren.

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A. Glenn Hill Center, NDSU Campus Wednesday, May 23

7:30 AM Room Open

8:30 – 9:00 Panel Keynote

“Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) Services in NWS Operations”

David DeWitt, Director, NWS Climate Prediction Center

9:00 – 9:30 Session 4 Panel: S2S Research and Operational Capabilities Panel Facilitator: David DeWitt, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center

PRES2iP: Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods Elinor Martin, University of Oklahoma

New Watershed-based Climate Forecast Products for Hydrologists and Water Managers Sarah Baker, CU Boulder & USBR

Who Cares About S2S Research to Improve Forecasts? Alison Stevens, NOAA/OAR Climate Program Office

9:30 – 10:00 S2S Panel Discussion (30 minutes)

10:00 – 10:30 Break & Posters

10:30 – 12:00 PM Session 5: Stakeholder Engagement

Moderator: Natalie Umphlett, High Plains Regional Climate Center

ECCC and NOAA Tackle Extreme Temperatures: The Status of an ECCC/NOAA Project to Improve the Cross-border Coordination and Collaboration of Alerts and Messaging for Extremes of Heat and Cold Gregory Gust, NOAA/NWS WFO Grand Forks

NWS Jackson Mississippi Week Two Hazardous Weather Impact Assessments Chad Entremont, NOAA/NWS WFO Jackson

On Downscaling Winter Season Climate Outlooks and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty to National Weather Service Core Partners Through Climate Decision Support Services Sam Lashley, NOAA/NWS WFO Northern Indiana

Increasing the Capacity of Tribal Communities to Incorporate Climate Information into Decision Making Crystal Stiles, High Plains Regional Climate Center

Seasonal Forecast Guidance for Fire Managers in Alaska Uma Bhatt, University of Alaska Fairbanks

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Climate Customer Engagement and Service Delivery at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information Mike Brewer, NOAA/NESDIS National Centers for Environmental Information

12:00 – 1:15 Lunch (on your own)

1:15 – 2:30 Session 6: Applications of Drought Information

Moderator: Fiona Horsfall, NOAA / NWS Climate Services Branch

Drought Early Warning for Agricultural and Hydrologic Stakeholders using the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI): Updates and Performance in the 2017 Northern Plains Drought Mike Hobbins, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division & University of Colorado, Boulder

Predictability of Northern Plains Drought Klaus Wolter, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division & University of Colorado, Boulder

Defining Drought Characteristics for Natural Resource Management Dennis Ojima, Colorado State University

Views of the 2016 Northern Plains Flash Drought: Farmer Perspectives and Remote Sensing Data Anthony Mucia, National Drought Mitigation Center

Did Climate Change Increase the Intensity and Likelihood of the 2017 U.S. Northern Plains Drought? Imtiaz Rangwala, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division & University of Colorado, Boulder

2:30 – 2:45 Poster Introductions (see list at end)

2:45 – 3:15 Break & Posters (formal poster viewing)

3:15 – 4:30 Session 7: Agriculture Decision Support Services Moderator: Ray Wolf, NOAA /NWS Davenport - Quad Cities

Opportunities and Challenges of Climate Change in the Northern Plains Adnan Akyuz, North Dakota State University

Projected Changes in the Frequency and Severity of Major Tree Fruit Diseases in the Great Lakes Region William Baule, Michigan State University

Apple Orchard Impact Decisional Support Jeffrey Boyne, NOAA/NWS WFO Lacrosse

Climate and Agriculture Scenario Planning Tyler Williams, University of Nebraska (presented by Laura Edwards, South Dakota State University)

Grassland Productivity Forecast system (GrassCast) William Parton, Colorado State University

4:30 – 5:00 Daily Wrap Up

5:30 PM Reception and Banquet Dinner: NDSU Alumni Center, Diederich Atrium

Land Grant College: Drawn to History Steve Stark, Illustrated History

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Wednesday Panel Keynote Speaker: David DeWitt, Director, NWS Climate Prediction Center

David DeWitt joined NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) in 2012 as the lead modeler within the Science Plans Branch of the Office of Science and Technology. During his tenure at NWS, he served a detail as the acting deputy director for NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center, and as a project manager for the Sandy Supplemental projects, which accelerated development of NOAA’s foundational numerical guidance for weather prediction. David has provided leadership on several NWS and NOAA cross-line office activities targeted toward improving NOAA’s products and services.

Prior to coming to NOAA, DeWitt worked as a research scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University from 1999-2012. While at IRI, David led a team of scientists in the development of seasonal climate forecasts and prototype decision supports systems for the application of climate information in the fields of agriculture, health, and water resources.

From 1994-1999, DeWitt worked at the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies developing coupled atmosphere-ocean models for seasonal forecasts and conducting research to better understand short-term climate variability.

DeWitt received his Bachelor of Arts (1989) degree in meteorology from Kean University, and his Masters (1992), and Ph.D. (1994) degrees in meteorology from the University of Maryland, College Park. He has published over 30 peer-reviewed journal articles, and is a leading expert on short-term climate forecasting and diagnostics, and coupled model development. He served as an executive editor of Climate Dynamics, and as a member of the World Climate Research Program Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction. Wednesday Banquet Speaker: Steve Stark, Illustrated History

Steve Stark is an editorial cartoonist in his spare time and combines his drawing with an appreciation of American heritage by presenting programs called Illustrated History. While telling stories of history he fast draws them in charcoal on long rolls of paper before your eyes. He's presented history programs of various subjects to many thousands of people of all ages across North Dakota and Minnesota and into 26 other states and Washington D.C. Steve graduated with a B.A. from NDSU and received his M.A. from the University of Wisconsin/Superior.

He was a communications specialist with the NDSU Extension Service, weekly newspaper publisher and later worked as executive director of a county historical society and pioneer village. He has been an editorial cartoonist and illustrator for 30 years and has thousands of published cartoons. In 2017 NDSU honored Steve with the Distinguished Alumni Award from the College of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences. Steve and his wife Gwen, a retired teacher, live in Fargo and have two sons and three grandchildren.

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A. Glenn Hill Center, NDSU

Thursday, May 24

7:30 AM Room Open

8:30 – 10:00 Session 8: International Climate Decision Support Services

Moderator: Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS Climate Services Branch

Improvements to the Canadian Drought Monitor to Better Communicate Drought Conditions in Canada Trevor Hadwen, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Information on Rainfall Days and Rainfall Fraction for Management and Preparedness Flooding at the Indonesian Maritime Continent Kadarsah, The Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)

The U.S. WMO Regional Climate Center for North America, Caribbean and Central America Wassila Thiaw, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center

Improved Adaptation-decisions and Resilience by Using Impact-based Climate Services in Coastal Bangladesh: What needs to be done to make the process locally-relevant and user-inspired? Saleh Ahmed, University of Arizona

Impacts of ENSO and Changing Climate on Water Resources: U.S-Affiliated Pacific Islands Md Chowdhury, Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center, JIMAR, University of Hawaii at Manoa

Dialogue with Agricultural Sector to Promote Use of Climate Prediction of JMA Nobuyuki Kayaba, Japan Meteorological Agency

10:00 – 10:30 Break & Posters

10:30 – 11:30 Session 9 Panel: Heat-Health Decision Support Services

Facilitator: Hunter Jones, NOAA Climate Program Office

Heat-Health Vulnerability in North Carolina and the Development of a Web-Based Tool to Predict Heat-Related Emergency Department Visits Charles (Chip) Konrad, NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center

NOAA/NWS Western Region Experimental HeatRisk Project Paul Iniguez, NOAA/NWS WFO Phoenix

Development and Implementation of an Impact-Based Heat Warning and Information Service for Canada: A National and Regional Collaboration Melissa MacDonald & Natalie Hasell, Environment and Climate Change Canada

Heat-Health Panel Discussion (20 minutes)

11:30 – 12:30 PM Lunch (on your own)

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12:30 – 1:30 Session 10: Decision Support Tools

Moderators: TBD

An Operational System for Surveillance and Ecological Forecasting of West Nile Virus Outbreaks Michael Wimberly, South Dakota State University

Long Range Outlooks and IDSS Messaging: A Comparison of Climate Tools and Teleconnections Ken Simosko, NOAA/NWS WFO Bismarck

GIS at the MRCC: A peek behind the curtain Zoe Zaloudek, ISWS/Midwestern Regional Climate Center

Development of an SPI Outlook Tool Becky Bolinger, Colorado Climate Center

1:30 – 2:00 Meeting Wrap-up & Tour Preview

2:00 PM Depart for Educational Tour

TOUR ITINERARY: Thursday, May 24

2:00 PM - Depart Fargo

2:45 PM - Arrive at Hoffmann Angus, Wheatland, ND – Multi-generation grain and Purebred Black Angus Farm

3:45 PM - Depart Hoffmann Angus

4:00 PM - Arrive at Red Trail Winery, Buffalo, ND. – Vine Yard tour with over 1000 cold hardy grape vines and wine tasting

5:00 PM - Depart Red Trail Winery

5:45 PM - Arrive at Bonanzaville – Pioneer village and museum with displays of Native Americans, bonanza and homesteading, and the modernization of North Dakota

6:00 PM - Bar-B-Q Boot Camp and dinner by NDSU Carnivore Catering - meat grilling, smoking and cooking methods along with a discussion of modern animal agriculture

7:45 PM - Return to Fargo

TOUR ITINERARY: Friday, May 25

8:30 AM - Depart Fargo

9:15 AM - Arrive and tour Fort Abercrombie – First U.S. military fort established in what would become North Dakota

10:15 AM - Depart Fort Abercrombie

11:00 AM - Arrive and tour Bagg Bonanza Farm, Mooreton, ND – Historic farm with buildings conveying the type of wooden structures of the bonanza farming era of the 1800s and early 1900s.

Noon - Lunch at Bagg Bonanza Farm

2:00 PM - Return to Fargo

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Posters will be displayed throughout workshop

1 The North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering actionable science to help fish, wildlife, water, land, and people adapt to a changing climate Dennis Ojima, Colorado State University & Aparna Bamzai, USGS/North Central Climate Science Center

2 Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service Forecasts on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Website Daniel Roman, NOAA/NWS Water Resources Branch

3 Extreme Precipitation Events, Impacts, Trends and Projections for Indiana Sam Lashley, NOAA/NWS WFO Northern Indiana

4 Climate Engine Katherine Hegewisch, University of Idaho

5 Water Balance Across Regional Climate Gradients: A Comparison of Two Potential Evapotranspiration Metrics Andrew Hansen, Montana State University

6 Climate Consoles and Decision Trees: Co-production Efforts to Share Information Dominique Bachelet, Oregon State University & Tim Sheehan, Conservation Biology Institute

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2017 Drought Assessment, Impact and Response in North Dakota F. Adnan Akyuz, North Dakota State University and Sean Johnson, North Dakota Department of Emergency Services

8 The Use of Seasonal-Scale Climate Tools as aids in Determining Snowmelt Flood Risk Gregory Gust & Steve Buan, NOAA/NWS WFO Grand Forks

9 Recent Use of Climate Change Scenarios in North Dakota: Two examples Gregory Gust, NOAA/NWS WFO Grand Forks

10 Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI): A high resolution dataset and monitoring of deviations in landscape evaporative response across the Conterminous US Imtiaz Rangwala, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division & University of Colorado, Boulder

11 Estimating Mountain Snowpack in Wyoming's Wind River Range using the SNOW-17 Model and High-Resolution Observed Meteorology Candida Dewes, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division & University of Colorado, Boulder

12 Assessing the Relationship between Low-Frequency Oscillations of Global Hydro-Climate Indices and Long-Term Precipitation throughout the United States Jason Giovannettone, Dewberry

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16th Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

May 22-24, 2018 Fargo, North Dakota

CPASW 2018 SPONSORS