1. Modelling and Simulationand Philosophy of Science for EngineersChair for Information Systems ManagementUniversity of BayreuthProf. Dr. Torsten Eymann

2. 2Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSLectures and ExercisesLectures:Week 1Introduction to the Philosophy of ScienceResearch using Model Building and SimulationExercises:Week 3Modeling and simulation with AnyLogic softwareApplication of acquired knowledge to simulate a scientific problemMaterial: http://un.iversity.org/i/g/plollzCertificate of performance:Assignments, project work 3. 3Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSAbout MeFull Professor for Information SystemsManagement since 2004University of Bayreuth, Germany12.000 students at 70.000 populationCourses onFundamentals of Information SystemsManagement and Electronic CommerceBusiness IntelligenceIT-InfrastructuresIT-Governance and IT-SecurityModelling and Simulation 4. 4Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSWhat is Science?Science and the Theory of ScienceEpistemology, Logic und MetaphysicsTheory, Hypothesis, Antithesis, SynthesisFalsification, Rejection and AcceptanceHermeneutics, Empirism, RationalismParadigms and Scientific ProgramsScientific Method4 5. 5Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSCore QuestionsWas ist Science?How to distinguish from Consulting or Astrology?Properties of Scientific TheoriesElements of Theories and Relations between themAcceptable Scientific Methods and ProcessesRanking of Sciences The Two CulturesNatural Sciences above all?How reliable is a scientific statement? 6. 6Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science and Information Systems ResearchPart 1: Basic concepts of science andPhilosophy of Science 7. 7Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSCloud computing use will double by 2020The medium distance from Earth to Sun is 149.597.870 kmIncreasing the price of a car by 20% leads to increased turnover by 20%92% of German Internet users never upload videos to YouTubeTomorrow will be a 70% chance of rainScience or not? 8. 8Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSDefinition: ScienceScience isany system of knowledge that is concerned with thephysical world and its phenomena and that entailsunbiased observations and systematicexperimentation. In general, a science involves apursuit of knowledge covering general truths or theoperations of fundamental laws.science. (2008). In Encyclopdia Britannica. RetrievedJune 17, 2008, from Encyclopdia Britannica Online:http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9066286 9. 9Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience broken down in piecesany system of knowledge (not just a fact)concerned with the physical world and itsphenomena (something to observe)unbiased observations and systematicexperimentation (interpersonal, generalizable)pursuit of knowledge (a method) coveringgeneral truths orthe operations of fundamental laws. 10. 10Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSWhat is Science? 11. 11Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSThere are nine million bicycles in BeijingThats a fact,Its a thing we cant denyLike the fact that I will love you till I die.We are twelve billion light years from the edge,Thats a guess,No-one can ever say its trueBut I know that I will always be with you. 12. 12Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFACT 13. 13Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSSCIENTIFICFACT 14. 14Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSGUESS 15. 15Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSQUALIFIEDGUESS 16. 16Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSDefinition: Epistemologythe study of the nature, origin, and limits of human knowledge. The term isderived from the Greek episteme (knowledge) and logos (reason), andaccordingly the field is sometimes referred to as the theory of knowledge.epistemology. (2008). In Encyclopdia Britannica. Retrieved June 17, 2008, fromEncyclopdia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9106052tries to answer questions like "What is knowledge?", "How is knowledgeacquired?", and "What do people know?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemology18.06.201316Torsten Eymann, U Bayreuth, Germany 17. 17Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSWhat is Knowledge?Moores Paradox: "Its rainingoutside but I dont believe that it is.(Contradiction of Belief Knowledge)I believe this bridge is safe to crossvs. I know this bridge is safe tocross[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Classical-Definition-of-Kno.svg] 18. 18Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScientific Discovery and PredictionDiscovering a Theoryis a creative act"To raise new questions, newpossibilities, to regard oldproblems from a new angle,requires creative imagination andmarks real advance in science."p.92, Albert Einstein and LeopoldInfeld (1938), The Evolution of Physics:from early concepts to relativity andquanta ISBN 0-671-20156-5"The instant I saw the picture mymouth fell open and my pulsebegan to race.James D. Watson (1968), The DoubleHelix, page 167. New York: Atheneum 19. 19Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScientific Conclusion and ReasoningProving a theory ishard labourDuring all those years ofexperimentation and research, I neveronce made a discovery. All my workwas deductive, and the results Iachieved were those of invention, pureand simple.Thomas Alva Edison, Talks with Edison"by George Parsons Lathrop in Harpersmagazine, Vol. 80 (February 1890), p. 425"I am not accustomed to sayinganything with certainty after only oneor two observations."[27]Andreas Vesalius (1546) 20. 20Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSGetting your Ph.D. requiresAn IdeaPerseveranceA realistic view on the achievableSynopsis20 21. 21Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSSCIENCE (NOT) 22. 22Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPolywater"Unnatural Water". Timemagazine. December 19, 1969.Western scientists werefrankly skeptical. RussianChemists N. Fedyakin and BorisDeryagin claimed to haveproduced a mysterious newsubstance, a form of waterthat was so stable it boiledonly at about 1,000F., or fivetimes the boiling temperatureof natural water. It did notevaporate. It did not freezethough at 40F., with little orno expansion, it hardened intoa glassy substance quite unlikeice. 23. 23Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience The end of the world by polywatervacuumglass tubepolywater 24. 24Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience The end of the world by polywaterCharacteristics of polywaterCharacteristics Water Polywaterviscosity liquid jellylikefreezing point 0 C -30 C to -60 Cboiling point 100 C 150 C to 250 C 25. 25Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUS"Doubts about Polywater". Timemagazine. October 19, 1970."Challenged by critics to letimpartial scientists analyze hispolywater, Deryagin had turnedover 25 tiny samples of thesubstance to investigators of theSoviet Academy of SciencesInstitute of Chemical Physics. Theresults, which were published inthe journal, showed thatDeryagins polywater was badlycontaminated by organiccompounds, including lipids andphospholipids, which areingredients of humanperspiration." 26. 26Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience The end of the world by polywaterIndicator of the research of polywaterDiscovery of an new type of water by Russian ScientistsDesired pursuit race of the WestDiscovery may jeopardize continuity of the Earth (hysteria)Reproducibility only in extremely small quantitiesSkeptics are accused of sloppiness 27. 27Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSDefinition: Metaphysicsthe philosophical study whoseobject is to determine the realnature of thingsto determinethe meaning, structure, andprinciples of whatever isinsofar as it is.Aristotle had distinguished twotasks for the philosopher: first,to investigate the nature andproperties of what exists in thenatural, or sensible, world, andsecond, to explore thecharacteristics of Being assuch and to inquire into thecharacter of the substancethat is free from movement,Camille Flammarion,LAtmosphere:Mtorologie Populaire(Paris, 1888), p. 163.metaphysics. (2008). InEncyclopdiaBritannica. RetrievedJune 17, 2008, fromEncyclopdiaBritannica Online:http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9108718 28. 28Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSDefinition: Ethicsalso called moralphilosophy.the discipline concernedwith what is morally goodand bad, right and wrong.The term is also applied toany system or theory ofmoral values or principles.ethics. (2008). In EncyclopdiaBritannica. RetrievedJune 17, 2008, fromEncyclopdia BritannicaOnline:http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9106054http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rembrandt_Harmensz._van_Rijn_079.jpg 29. 30Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience - Science areasWhat unites and distinguishes the scientific work to the polywater and the x-rayresearch?Criterion Polywater X-raysphenomenon unreal realnature ofsciencepathologicalsciencenaturalscienceelaborateness ofthe experimentscarefulimplementationcarefulimplementationmeasurability ofthe effecthardlymeasurable effectwith the nakedeyetype of research directed as desired open 30. 31Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience - Science areaspathological science pseudoscienceparascienceNon-scienceformal orideal sciencemathematicslogicreal sciencenatural science cultural sciencespecific naturalscienceengineeringelectricalengineeringmechanicalengineeringphysicschemistrysocialscienceeconomylawsociologyhumanitiesphilosophylinguisticshistoryScience 31. 32Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience Scientific idealAnswers to "important" issuesGet real answersRecognisability of the answers to be trueDeductive suggestion from one component to another*Radnitzky 1979 32. 33Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience Knowledge gained through induction ordeductiontheoryempiricismstatements about some eventsstatements about all eventsinductiondeduction 33. 34Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSInductivism The principle of inductiontheoryempiricismstatements about some eventsstatements about all eventsinductiondeductionif a large number of As have beenobserved under a wide variety ofconditions, and if all these observed Ashave the property B, then all As probablyhave the property BChalmers 1999 Wenn eine groe Anzahl von A unter einergroen Vielfalt von Bedingungenbeobachtet wird, und wenn alle diesebeobachteten A ohne Ausnahme dieEigenschaft B besitzen, dann besitzen alleA die Eigenschaft B.Chalmers 2001 34. 35Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSEmpiricism Inductive gain of insightsexperience knowledgeexplorate[] Vertrautseinmit bestimmtenHandlungs- undSachzusam-menhngenohne Rekurs aufein hiervonunabhngigestheoretischesWissen.Mittelstra 1980Knowledge, based on argumentsand (strict) checksopposite: suppose or beliefClassical EmpiricismExponents:Aristoteles (384 322 v. Chr.)John Locke (1632 1704)George Berkeley (1685 1753)David Hume (1711 1776)John Stuart Mill (1806 1873)[] familiaritywith specificaction andsubjectinterdepencieswithout recourseto anindependenttheoreticalknowledge.Mittelstra 1980 35. 36Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSLogical empiricism A unit of science?Logical Empiricism = Logical Positivism = Neo-positivismPositivism1. Insights from facts2. Rejection of metaphysicsExponents:Henri de Saint-Simon (1760 1825)Auguste Comte (1798 1857)TargetCriteria for evaluating philosophicalmethods(Classical) EmpiricismInductive gain of insight 36. 37Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSLogical empiricism Some exponentsRudolf Carnap(1891 1970)http://www.iep.utm.eduLudwig Wittgenstein(1889 1951) http://www.iep.utm.eduBertrand Russell(1872 1970)http://www.iep.utm.eduWiener Kreis: Vienna circle et al. 37. 38Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSRationalism Knowledge by thinking?!transmission?knowledgeinterpretation viasenses1 kg 100 kgreligious apocalypse/prophecyAge of the earth: 6.000 12.000 yearsthinking 38. 39Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSRationalism Knowledge by thinking?!Existence of "a priori truthsMathematics as obvious truth (e.g., it is always "1 +1 = 2")Gain of insight by deductionWhat truth follows from what truth?Possible errors:A person is mortal. They are not human. They are immortal. illogical (Animals are immortal?)If God had created the universe, it would be rule in the order of nature. There is order through the laws of nature. God created the universe. illogical (Other reasons for the laws of nature?) 39. 40Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSIf I know what to search for and have a generalizable process (a method), then Iwill arrive at some (comprehensible and precise) results= acceptance or rejection of a scientific theoryComprehensionIs a theory correct, if assertions are logically building upon each other (can Iverify?) orIs a theory correct, as long as there are no observations in contradiction to thetheory (cant I falsify?)Structure and Method 40. 41Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability (Popper)Karl Popper. Flv 41. 42Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability The principle of falsificationtheoryempiricismstatements about some eventsstatements about all eventsinductiondeduction[], lsst sich eine wissenschaftlicheHypothese zwar niemals erweisen, wohlaber, wenn sie falsch ist, widerlegen, undes fragt sich deshalb, ob nicht Thatsachenbeigebracht werden knnen, welche miteiner der beiden Hypothesen inunauflslichem Widerspruch stehen undsomit dieselbe zu Fall bringen.Weismann 1868 42. 44Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSExperience Law? Experiment 43. 45Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability Falsification of a statementFalsifiable Statement:All Swans are whiteLeda and the Swan, a 16th century copyafter a lost painting by Michelangelo, 1530(National Gallery, London) 44. 46Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability Falsification of a statementFalsifiable Statement:All Swans are whiteBlack Swan (discovered 1790,Australia) 45. 47Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability Falsification of a statementNot falsifiable statement:All prime numbers have exactly two natural numbers as a divider. 46. 48Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability Observation as the beginning?Observation:Number 592: 592- 295= 297+ 792= 1089Observation is problematic only through theoryTheory: Algorithm always leads to "1089" with three-digit number,at which the first number is bigger than the last digit by at least 2. 47. 49Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability Karl Raimund PopperRejection of induction (problem of induction)Approach of falsifiability (problem ofdemarcation)Founder of critical rationalism:insights only temporarytesting by several empirical testsAdvance of scientific knowledgehttp://www.iep.utm.eduKarl Raimund Popper(1902 1994)problem (P1)problem (P2)tentative theory (TT)error elimination (EE)Popper, Miller 1997approximation to the truth 48. 50Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSKarl Raimund Popper - Summarydiscover justifiyfalsifiable theoryobservation (tentative)theoryTarget: finding the truth (-approximate) 49. 51Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability BoundariesFalsifiability: observation statements are falseExample: an experimental falsifiability of the theory T by observing BStudy theory observationWhat is wrong: The theory or the observation? 50. 52Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability BoundariesTheory: The Earth rotates! (Copernicus)Observation vs. (at that time) expected result:Result: theory is falsified "The earth does not rotate! (Claudius Ptolemaeus)tearthearth 51. 53Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSAnarchism - Anything goesEpistemological anarchism, DadaismRules on scientific knowledge:harmfulsenselessAgainst MethodProliferation principlePersistence principlehttp://de.wikipedia.orgPaul Feyerabend(1924 1994) 52. 54Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science What is a theory?observation:context:observation :context :observation:context :Passage of solid objects by twocolumnspattern with two stripesPassage of photons by twocolumnspattern with several stripesPassage of waves by twocolumnspattern with several stripes 53. 55Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience What is a scientific theoryHighly falsifiable theory low falsifiable theoryRejection of falsified theoriesPreparation of highly speculative hypotheses: progress through trial and error 54. 56Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science What is philosophy of science?Concept of science:1. Strict standards of the underlying form of knowledge creation.*2. Social event for the stabilization of the scientific form of knowledge creation.*3. Guides us in the search of the truth.*Aim of science: to gain insights/ progress* Mittelstra 2010 55. 57Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science What is philosophy of science?Philosophy of Science as neueste Form des ewigen Dreinredens derPhilosophie *+ in das Geschft der Wissenschaften?Mittelstra 1985neverthelessIt is a philosophical discipline in which the scientific practices are methodicallyelucidated, i.e. investigation ofresearch formtheory form: structure of theory, dynamics of theory, explication of theoriesMittelstra 1985 56. 58Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science Part 1 - SummaryEmpiricism Rationalismexperience rationality rationality experienceknowledge from experience knowledge only by rationalitydefinitions, laws, etc. derived fromindividual things (experiences)definitions, laws, etc.only by rationalityproblem: generalization of experience reliable knowledgemission statement: mathematics (logic) 57. 59Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science Part 1 - Summary(classical)empiricism(historical)positivismlogicalpositivismrationalismcriticalrationalismDescartes (1596 1650)Locke (1632 1704)Berkeley (1685 - 1753)Hume (1711 - 1776)Mill (1806 - 1873)Carnap (1891 1970)Gdel (1906 1978)Reichenbach (1891 1953)Feyerabend (1924 1994)Popper (1902 1994)Comte (1798 1857)epistemologicalanarchismtime 58. 60Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSReferencesChalmers 1999: Chalmers, Alan F.: What is this thing called science?. Hackett PublischingCompany, p. 51.Chalmers 2001: Chalmers, Alan F.: Wege der Wissenschaft. Springer 2001, p. 40.Esterbauer 2005: Esterbauer, Reinhold: Grundkurs Metaphysik. http://oeh-fv-theo.uni-graz.at/_pdf/4652fcf3b98ce.pdf, Abruf am 01.09.2011.Gethmann 1995: Gethmann, Carl F.: Proliferationsprinzip. In: Mittelstra, J.:Enzyklopdie Philosophie und Wissenschaftstheorie Band 3. J. B. Metzler,Stuttgart/Weimar 1995, pp. 359 - 361.Heinrich 2005: Heinrich, Lutz J.: Forschungsmethodik einer Integrationsdisziplin: EinBeitrag zur Geschichte der Wirtschaftsinformatik. In: NTM Zeitschrift fr Geschichte derWissenschaften, Technik und Medizin 13 (2005), pp. 104 117.Mittelstra 1980: Mittelstra, Jrgen: In: Mittelstra, J.: Enzyklopdie Philosophie undWissenschaftstheorie Band 1. J. B. Metzler, Mannheim/Wien/Zrich 1980, p. 568 570. 59. 61Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSReferencesMittelstra 1985: Mittelstra, Jrgen: Die Philosophie der Wissenschaftstheorie berdas Verhltnis von Wissenschaftstheorie, Wissenschaftsforschung undWissenschaftsethik. In: Zeitschrift fr allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie XIX/2 (1988), pp.308 327.Mittelstra 2010: Mittelstra, Jrgen: Kommentar zu Reinhard Mocek: Von derUniversalitt der Wissenschaftsgeschichte (1981). In: Zeitschrift fr Geschichte derWissenschaften, Technik und Medizin 18 (2010), pp. 431 436.Popper, Miller 1979: Popper, Karl Raimund; Miller, David: Lesebuch. 2. Auflage, UTB,Gttingen 1997, S. 59.Radnitzky 1979: Radnitzky, Gerard: Erkenntnisfortschritt und Theoriebewertung. Dreikonkurrierende Anstze in der Wissenschaftstheorie. In: Die Naturwissenschaften 66(1979), pp. 121 129. 60. 62Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSReferencesThiel 1996: Thiel, Christian: Theorie. In: Mittelstra, J.: Enzyklopdie Philosophie undWissenschaftstheorie Band 4. J. B. Metzler, Stuttgart/Weimar 1996, pp. 260 270.Weismann 1868: Weismann, August: ber die Berechtigung der Darwinschen Theorie.Engelmann, Leipzig 1868, p. 14 f.