phaunos five year strategy outline - london stock exchange · 2016-12-08 · ¹ as at 30 june 2016...
TRANSCRIPT
Phaunos Five Year Strategy Outline
8 December 2016
2
Phaunos Five Year Strategy Outline
1. Phaunos Overview
2. The Case for Timberland
3. Portfolio Update
4. 2017 Continuation Vote
5. Stafford’s Capability
Contents
Above: P. Taeda logs ready for transport, US South,
Cover Image: P. Taeda and Sawmill, Uruguay
Phaunos overview
3
A listed global timberland company1
Interests in 150,000ha of sustainable
plantations2
US$ 299.4m¹ NAV of timberland
assets 3
Restructured fund with 85% of assets
classed lower or medium risk, higher
risk assets sold
6
Total portfolio debt at 1% of NAV4
Annual timber harvest of 2.2 million m35
¹ As at 30 June 2016
Performance review: Stafford scorecard
4
Stabilise Net Asset Value
Provide Income
Lower Annual Costs
Net Cash Flow
Improve Share Price
Lower Portfolio Debt
Re-balance Risk Profile
Share Buybacks
NAV per share: US$ 0.54, up
10.2%¹
US$ 1.6 million declared, with
further dividends envisaged
Costs US$ 7.2m, down 46% ²
Positive net cash flow in 2015 &
expected for 2016
Share price up 17.9% YTD ³
Portfolio debt reduced from 20% to
1% of NAV
85% lower and medium risk assets,
up from 64% since appointment
18.4 million shares acquired
through buybacks ⁴
¹ As at 30 June 2016 versus 31 December 2015² 2016 revised budget, versus 2015 actual³ Year to Date 2016 versus 31 December 2015⁴ Year to Date 2016
The case for continuation
5
Revenues
Potential to Improve NAV
Wood Flows Increasing
Share Price Increasing
Management
Potential to Increase Yield
Continue focus on high-quality assets. Target yield of 3-5% p.a.
Low Cost Base Achieved
Platform for increasing yield from low cost base
Global Market Access
Increase focus on key mature markets including US & Australia
Increase share price through regular yield, share buy backs and NAV growth
Revenue increases supported by wood flows & market access
2014 2022
Non-yielding Yielding
Support NAV growth through improved market access and re-investment
US$ 2.0bn timberland FUM2, leverage off Stafford’s proprietary deal flow
Portfolio wood flows increasing, supported by positive supply & demand fundamentals
20221
2011 20161
20161 2025
20161
20161
¹ Manager estimate2 as at 30 September 2016
The Case for Timberland
Douglas Fir, Oregon, USA
• Timberland displays highest correlation with inflation of major real asset classes
• Provides protection in periods of uncertainty, growth in periods of economic expansion
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
Corr
ela
tio
n c
oeff
icie
nt
The case for timberland - part 1
7
NAV Growth, Timber Revenues
• Typical expected returns include:− 3-5% p.a. from capital growth− 3-5% p.a. from harvesting income− 1-2% alpha from Stafford approach
• Gradual sale of underlying assets provide annuity style capital returns
Stable Returns, Low Volatility
• Timberland has lower volatility than major equity markets
• Biological growth provides appreciation in periods of weak macro-economic conditions
• Downside protection through NAV growth and high barrier to entry
• Consistent log demand leads to stable log prices
Inflation Protection
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
% R
etu
rn p
.a.
IncomeAppreciationDepreciationS&P 500
NCREIF Timberland v S&P 500 ¹ Generic Timberland Fund Accumulated
Cash Flows
Correlation with Inflation by Asset class²
-
200
400
600
800
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Net Asset Value Distribution – Harvesting
Distribution – Asset Realisation
¹ Source: NCREIF, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC; ² NCREIF et. al.
• Global demand to grow at ~1% p.a.
• Reductions in Chinese harvest quotas and Canadian production
• Shortage of new planting since 1990s to support growth in demand
• 2.3Mha (94%) certified and increasing¹
• Stafford actively working with managers to implement ESG² practices
• 208,000 ha (and increasing) of areas perpetually reserved for conservation
The case for timberland - part 2
8
Sustainable Investment Favourable Supply & Demand
• Timberland provides diversification for real asset portfolios
• Appreciating assets
• Low regulatory and political risk
• Provision of essential products
• Access to large-scale land holdings
Diversification Benefits
Low volatility
Consistent NAV growth
Broad-hectare land ownership
Globally traded commodity
Timberland
Timberland Agriculture Core Infra.
Non-core Infra. Real Estate
Major wood product import/export nations
Responsible
Renewable
SustainableNet importing nation
Net exporting nation
¹ Across the entire Stafford estate; ² Environment, Social and Governance
Market conditions – Steady demand growth
9
• In 2010 China’s wood supply deficit was predicted to increase 55%...it increased by 65%
• Further increase expected through ongoing urbanisation and increase in consumption based products
China’s demand for wood imports continues to increase…
China’s increasing wood deficit ¹
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2005 2010 2015a 2020f 2025f
Mill
ion c
ubic
metr
es (
RW
E)
Solidwood markets
Pulp and Paper Markets
• Period of overbuilding in 2000-7, substantial underbuilding since
• Net home deficit increasing
Undersupply in US housing market
US housing deficit ²
−1.4m
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
US
housin
g s
urp
lus / d
eficit (
mill
.)
Surplus/Deficit (1.35M average)
Actual US Housing starts
Long-term average
• Global demand has grown at ~1% p.a. for past 2 decades
• Increasing global wealth and urbanisation expected to support this trend
Global consumption continues to increase
Global roundwood consumption ³
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Industr
ial ro
undw
ood p
roductio
n
(Bill
ion m
3)
+1% p.a
Source: ¹ RISI; ² NAHB; ³ UN FAO
a Actual; f Forecast
Market conditions – Limited new supply
10
• Shortage of new planting since 1990s to support growth in demand
• New Zealand harvest of 29.5Mm3, approaching forecast peak supply of 33-34Mm3 per annum
Southern hemisphere peak plantation supply approaching
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048
Harv
est V
olu
me (
mill
ion u
nits/y
ear)
New Zealand wood supply ²
• Phased reduction of commercial harvest of government owned forest
• Anticipated to reduce domestic softwood supply by 20Mm3
• Imported timber expected to offset this reduction
China’s softwood harvest quotas have been reduced
Softwood reduction under 13th 5-year Plan ¹
0 20 40 60 80
13
th12
th
Soft
woo
d
Harvest quota (Mm³ p.a.)
– 20Mm3 p.a
Source: 1 Manager estimate; ² NZ DPI; ³ Wood Markets Group
Estimate
• Canadian available wood fibre down almost 30% from 2003 peak levels
• Combination of historical over-cutting and mountain pine beetle damage to limit future supply
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion m
3
Canada fibre supply declining
Canada available wood fibre ³
Estimate
Portfolio Update
P. radiata, New Zealand
Phaunos: A listed global timberland company
12
• Is cash positive and ungeared
• Provides a low cost access to timberland
• Provides liquidity in an illiquid asset class
• Retail and institutional access to timberland
• Is a sustainable investment
Phaunos…
• Has 12 years experience in timberland investment management
• US$ 2.0bn timberland FUM, 84 transactions, 157 underlying timberland assets
• Achieved 11% IRR (US$) on 54 secondary and co-investment transactions
• Has access to proprietary deal flow through secondaries and co-investments
Stafford…
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Phaunos timberland overview
13
¹ USD, unaudited NAV as at 30 June 2016² Cash held by parent: US$ 39.6m (13%) as at 30 June 2016
299.4mPortfolio NAV¹
85%Medium or lower risk assets
7
Underlying investments
Phaunos Investments²
Asia-PacificNorth America Latin America
US NE
<1%
US PNW
5%
Uruguay
16%
Brazil
21%
NZ
45%
Softwood species Hardwood species Eucalyptus species Teak, Tropical & Exotic timber
P. Radiata, Sth. Pine, D. Fir Maple, Oak E. globulus, E. grandis Teak, African Mahogany, Sandalwood
Key
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
10% Percentage
of NAV
Phaunos investment
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Cashflo
w v
alu
e (
US
D m
)
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
US
$ p
er
share
Phaunos turnaround
14
• Positive cash position forecast for 2016
• Achieved sustainable cost base of US$ 7.2m
Revenue
Planting
Silviculture
Net Position
Operating
Corporate
Costs
• 17.9% increase year-to-date• Supported by ongoing
share buyback programme, US$ 7.6m to date²
Share price
Growth (YTD)
Share buy-back
Stafford
appointed
manager
34%
37%
35%
35%29%
24%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2011Dec
2012Dec
2013Dec
2014Dec
2015Dec
2016SepEst.
US
$ p
er
share
• Discount to NAV reduced 5% from 29% to 24% since the beginning of 2016
NAV per Share
Share price
Discount to NAV/share
Stafford
appointed
manager
Discount to NAV per share Reducing
1• NAV per share increase
from US$ 0.49 to US$ 0.54¹• NAV expected to increase
as assets mature
Dec 2
015 N
AV
Ju
n 2
016 N
AV
Net movements in
Equity, Income & Fair Value
Unrealised FX
Uplift from share buy back
NAV per Share Increasing Cost Reductions, Positive Revenue Position
Share Price Increasing
0.33
0.38
0.43
Jan 16 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16
US
$ p
er
share
¹ 30 June 2016 unaudited NAV per share ² Representing 3.4% of share capital
3 4
2
2016 Financial Guidance
Item
Actuals
Dec 2015
US$ m
Budget
Dec 2016
US$ m
Manager’s Estimate
Dec 2016
US$ m
NAV 278.8 310 – 325 1
NAV per share (US$/share) 0.49 0.57 – 0.59 1
Cash inflows 17.2 8.3 9.6
Cash outflows (13.3) (7.7) (7.2)
Net cash flow 3.9 0.6 2.4
Proceeds on sale of non current assets 6.7 24.6 25.9
Share buy-backs & dividends – – (8.9) 3
Cash held at year end 4 25.6 50.8 45.0 2
1 Manager’s estimate, subject to final year-end valuations and foreign exchange movements and changes in issued capital2 Excluding provision for further share buybacks 3 Actual amount spent on share buy backs and dividends declared YTD 2016 4 Across all entities
15
2017 Continuation Vote
E. urograndis, Brazil
Continuation vote
17
Wind-up of the fund and return proceeds to shareholders
• Anticipate up to 3-year liquidation period
• NAV represents fair value, liquidation would impact prices with potential discount to NAV on distressed sales
• Fixed liquidation costs including management fee and sale incentive fees, estimated to be between 4-6% of NAV
Liquidate
The current portfolio is
• Self-sustaining following turnaround
• Cash positive with growing and sustainable yields
• Post-continuation management fee, 0.75% p.a. of market capitalisation
• A low cost entry to timberland
Maintain
Re-invest cash into high yield assets
• Improve fund diversification and yield
• Target new investments with 3-5% p.a. yield, 3-5% p.a. NAV growth and 1-2% p.a. from Stafford approach
• Access to proprietary Stafford deal flow to the benefit of Phaunos
Diversify
The Phaunos AGM due to be held in 2017 will contain a continuation vote
The Board intends to propose a resolution for the continuation of the Company for a further five years
The choices are:
A. Maintain portfolio, with potential to diversify
B. Liquidate the fund
Option 1 - Continuation Option 2 - Liquidation
• Net cash flow of US$ 2.4m forecast for 2016
• Looking ahead, Stafford estimates the current portfolio can provide sustainable net cash flow of US$ 5m to 11m in addition to capital appreciation
• Cashflow can be improved by further diversification
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
Net cash flo
w (
US
$ m
illio
n)
• Sustainable revenue outlook is supported by increasing wood flows
• Five year continuation will allow
– Improved negotiating power
– Decrease in price from service providers
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
2012-2016 ¹
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Volu
me (
mill
ion m
3)
Continuing operations
18
Cash flow positive Wood flows increasing
Estimate
Annual harvest
Trend line (2016-25)
2017-22
Estimate
Post-Continuation Vote
Post-Continuation
Vote
¹ Average annual harvest across Phaunos’ estate between 2012 and 2016. Forecast annual harvest as per 2015 independent property appraisals
High
Low
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
Cashflo
w v
alu
e &
opera
tin
g p
rofit (U
S$ m
illio
n)
• Stafford have reduced annual operating costs to base levels
• We anticipate revenues of between US$ 13m and US$ 18m from the current portfolio. This translates to
a net cash flow of between US$ 5m and US$ 11m or 2% to 3% p.a. of NAV
• On a restructured portfolio a target yield of 3% to 5% p.a. is achievable through the sale of non-yielding
assets and re-investment into higher yielding assets
Potential to increase earnings off a low cost base
19
High
Low
Net Position: Actual, Higher case, Lower case
Revenue: Actual, Higher case, Lower case
Costs: Actual, Estimate
Estimate
Current
Portfolio
Diversified
Portfolio
Post-Continuation Vote
Re-balancing portfolio yield
20
2014
High Risk, High Debt, No Yield
20221
Low Risk, Low Debt, Higher Yield
20161
Balanced Risk, Low Debt, Low Yield
• The majority of the higher risk and cashflow negative assets identified for sale in 2014 have been
sold at around NAV or above
• Opportunistic selling of remaining low-yield assets to be re-invested into higher-yield assets
• Stafford has access to mature, yielding assets through its secondary and co-investment deal flow
• Investment in yielding assets will assist the portfolio to achieve yields of 3% to 5% p.a.
YieldingNot
Yielding
95%Yielding
74%Yielding
54%Yielding
Net Loss US$ 6.6m Net Income US$ 2.4m1 Current portfolio, Net Income US$ 5 - 11m1
Diversified portfolio, Net Income US$ 11 - 19m1
1 Manager’s estimate
21
Nov
2016 Beyond
2018
Future PortfolioCurrent Portfolio
Potential to diversify market spread
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
US
$ M
illio
n
Declared dividend
Working capital
reserveUS$ 15m
US$ 1.6m
Available for
re-investmentUS$ 30m
Cash
Held¹
Existing
Investments
New Investments
Mature timberland,
higher yield, lower risk
Existing
Investments
• Reduce exposure to Brazilian biomass markets
• Increase exposure to US housing and renovation markets
Secondaries, co-investments & separate accounts
Opportunistic Investments
¹ Cash held at Nov 2016 across all entities
represents US$ 47.5m or 16% of the 30 June 2016
unaudited NAV
Stafford’s Capability
Mixed Hardwood, Michigan, USA
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Stafford Timberland overview
23
¹ USD, as at 30 September 2016
2.0bnTimberland FUM¹
84Timberland fund investments completed
157
Underlying assets
Global Investments
Asia-PacificNorth America Latin America
US South
US NEUS LakesUS PNW
Chile
Uruguay
Brazil
Cent. Am
Canada
Australia
NZ
Softwood species Hardwood species Eucalyptus species Teak, Tropical & Exotic timber
P. Radiata, Sth. Pine, D. Fir Maple, Oak E. globulus, E. grandis Teak, African Mahogany, Sandalwood
Key
Stafford office
Relative
percentage
of NAV
Examples of Stafford timberland investments
24
New Zealand softwood
Asset:Long term hold, 6% cash yield, 8% NAV growth since inception
Key markets:
NZ sawn timber, NZ panel production & Asian log exports
Australia softwood
Asset:Long term hold, 4% cash yield, 6% NAV growth since inception
Key markets:
Australian sawn-timber,Asia log exports & panel production
US softwoodUS hardwood
Asset:
Medium term hold, 2% cash yield, 11% NAV growth off discounted secondary entry price
Key markets:
US home construction, packaging and US industrial uses
Asset:
Medium term hold, 2% cash yield, 11% NAV growth off discounted secondary entry price
Key markets:
US hardwood sawn timber, export sawn-timber & paper production
Stafford has unique access to high-quality timberland assets
• 12 years’ experience of managing global timberland funds supported by a strong track record
• Team of 18 professionals based in Asia-Pacific, Europe, North & South America
• Management experience in all key timberland regions and species
Stafford Timberland deal flow
25
¹ USD² Since inception to 30 June 2016. Across 54 secondary and co-investment transactions³ 1 January 2007 to 6 December 2016
11%Secondary & Co-Investment IRR ¹,²
13Investments closed past 2 years
157m
10 year average invested per year¹,³
Experienced Manager
• Investing in high quality timber assets acquired on attractive terms
• Expanding deal flow though secondary opportunities
• Stafford’s extensive network allows us to access unique proprietary deals, often in the secondary market
Proprietary Deal Flow
$
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Num
ber
of deals
revie
wed
Opportunities Reviewed by Stafford
Separate Account
Co-investment
Secondary
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Jun-16
Fu
nds U
nder
Managem
ent (U
S$ b
n)
Stafford Timberland
Phaunos
Funds Under Management
• Stafford has delivered the Phaunos turnaround strategy presented in 2014
• Phaunos is now cash positive, benefiting from a low cost base and increasing wood flows
• Potential re-rating of share price can be driven by sustainable dividends and NAV growth
• Phaunos is an environmentally responsible investment
• Log price growth expected through steady demand growth and limited new supply
• Stafford has the deal flow, experience and knowledge to expand the company
Our vision is for Phaunos to be a…
Globally diversified, listed, timberland fund, with potential to provide yields of 3-5% p.a. and NAV
growth of 3-5% p.a.¹, managed in accordance with ESG best practice²
Summary
26
¹ Stafford estimates the existing portfolio could yield between 2-3% of NAV increasing to 3-5% of NAV through the sale of non-yielding assets and re-investment into higher yielding assets. ² ESG – Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance – is vital component of the management thesis of Phaunos, meeting best practice is essential to the ongoing success of the company.
Appendix
Key Dates & Information
28
Nov ‘16
Jan ‘17
May ‘17
Feb ’17
Dec ‘16
Mar ‘17
Jun ‘17
Apr ‘17
Jul ‘17
Dec ‘165-year strategy plan released
Early Apr ‘17Shareholders contacted to confirm voting details
Apr ‘17Publish Annual Report
June ‘17Phaunos AGMContinuation Vote
May ‘17AGM Notice & Voting forms sent
Investor
meetings
Investor
meetings
FY 2016
Annual Audit
Investor
meetings
Continuation
Vote
Dec ‘16Year-end
Contact InformationStafford Capital Partners Limited
24 Old Bond Street, London, W1S 4AW
P: +44 (0) 20 7535 4915
Disclaimer
29
• Stafford Capital Partners Limited ("Stafford") is distributing this strategy presentation in its capacity as manager of Phaunos Timber Fund Limited (the "Company") The Company is a
Guernsey domiciled Authorised Closed-ended investment scheme pursuant to section 8 of the Protection of Investors (Bailiwick of Guernsey) Law 1987, as amended and rule 6.02 of the
Authorised Closed-ended Investment Schemes Rules 2008 published by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission. The Ordinary Shares of the Company are admitted to the Official List
of the UK Listing Authority and to trading on the London Stock Exchange’s main market.
• In distributing this presentation Stafford is relying on the fact that all recipients are qualified investors' within the meaning of section 86(7) of Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
(“FSMA”) who are also (i) investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (''FPO"); or (ii) high
net worth companies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO; or.(iii) members of the Company within the meaning of Article 43(2) of the FPO; or (iv) certified high net worth individuals
within the meaning of Article 48 of the FPO; or (v) certain sophisticated investors within the meaning of Article 50(1) of the FPO (each a "relevant person"). Persons who do not fall within any
of these definitions should not rely on this document nor take any action upon it. The document is only exempt if it is distributed to these exempt categories of recipients. This document has
not been approved as a financial promotion or otherwise by a person who is authorised under FSMA for the purposes of section 21 of FSMA and rules made under such legislation or any
other applicable securities laws of any other territory. Approval will be required unless the recipient of this promotion is a relevant person. This presentation has not been, and will not be,
reviewed or approved by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") or any other authority or regulatory body.
• Stafford is issuing this strategy presentation exclusively as manager of the Company and will not be responsible to anyone other than the Company for providing regulatory and legal
protections afforded to customers (as defined in the rules of the FCA) nor for providing advice in relation to the contents of this document on any matter, transaction or arrangement referred
to in it. None of Stafford nor the Company, nor any of their respective directors, officers or employees makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or
completeness of the information or reasonableness of any opinions contained in this strategy presentation .
• Stafford is authorised and regulated by the FCA, but has not authorised the contents of, or any part of, this document for the purposes of Section 21 of FMSA. To the fullest extent permitted
by law, none of Stafford nor the Company (nor their respective members, directors, officers, employees, agents or representatives) nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for
any errors, omissions or inaccuracies in such information or opinions or for any loss, cost or damage suffered or incurred howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this
document or its contents or otherwise in connection with the subject matter of this document. The contents of this strategy presentation are not to be construed as legal, financial or tax
advice. This document should not be distributed in whole or in part to other parties.
• This strategy presentation is being supplied to shareholders and other relevant persons and solely for their information and does not constitute or contain any invitation or offer to any person
to subscribe for, otherwise acquire, or dispose of any Ordinary Shares in the Company or advise persons to do so in any jurisdiction. This strategy presentation does not constitute a
recommendation regarding the Ordinary Shares of the Company.
• Some statements contained in this presentation are or may be forward-looking statements, including without limitation any forecasts or projections. Actual results may differ from those
expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors. Any forward-looking information contained in this strategy presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of
assumptions, only some of which are set out in the presentation , which may prove to be incorrect, and accordingly, actual results may vary.
• For the avoidance of doubt, nothing in this strategy presentation is intended to constitute a profit forecast.
• The value of any investment may fall over time and you may receive back less than you invested.
• Stafford Capital Partners Limited is incorporated in England under registered number 04752750 and its registered office is at 4th Floor, 24 Old Bond Street, London, W1S 4AW, England.