pharoah le feuvre - mtrmr 2016 f.o.lichts 09.11.2016...
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2016© OECD/IEA 2016
© OECD/IEA 2016
Overview:
Content from the IEA’s Medium‐Term Renewable Energy MarketReport 2016 (MTRMR 2016): Share of renewables in the power, heat and transport sectors.
Conventional biofuels medium term forecast
Prospects for E15 and E85 blends in the United States
Discussion of Carbon Intensity (CI) based policy frameworks
Advanced biofuels medium term forecast
Cellulosic ethanol cost reduction potential
Prospects for biofuels in aviation
Analysis of the impacts of lower oil prices on biofuels markets.
Content from Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (ETP 2016) ‐ Whatrole for biofuels within the IEA’s 2 degrees scenario (2DS)? Geographical trends – decarbonising transport in OECD and non‐OECD countries
Fuels shares in passenger and freight transport within the 2DS
Urban and non‐urban transport and role of biofuels in the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Renewables dominate electricity growth but less progress in heat & transport
The share of renewables rises in all sectors. However, persistent challenges in heat & transport mean lower shares are achieved than for electricity.
Share of renewables in electricity, heat and transport sectors
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Share
of r
enew
ables
in se
ctor d
eman
d
Renewable electricity Renewable heat Biofuels in road transport
© OECD/IEA 2016
Global conventional biofuels production increased modestly during 2015
Conventional biofuels industry expansion has slowed from previous levels, however strengthened mandate requirements in key markets improve the medium‐term outlook.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Prod
uctio
n (bi
llion
L)
United States biofuels Brazil biofuels EU28 biofuels Asia biofuels Rest of world biofuels
Historical Forecast
World conventional biofuel production, 2009-21
© OECD/IEA 2016
Asia poised to head medium‐term conventional biofuels market growth
Security of supply considerations have resulted in strengthened policies in Thailand and India (Ethanol), and Indonesia and Malaysia (biodiesel), boosting production growth.
Conventional biofuels production growth in selected countries / regions, 2015-21
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
United States Brazil EU28 Asia
Prod
uctio
n gro
wth
(billio
n L)
Ethanol 2015-21 Biodiesel 2015-21
© OECD/IEA 2016
Moving beyond the US “blend wall” possible with current vehicle fleet
…however, more widespread fuel distribution infrastructure is fundamental to unlocking the potential for E15 and E85 ethanol blends in the United States.
United States E85 blend market overview
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15
E85
servic
e sta
tions (c
umula
tive)
USD/
litre
Cumulative E85 stations Gasoline retail E85 retail adjusted for energy content
Sources: US EIA, US DOE
© OECD/IEA 2016
Implications of carbon intensity (CI) based policies for biofuels
Technology neutral CI based policies favour technologies and fuels able to offer the deepest emissions savings for a given cost, and can diversify the fuel mix to ensure compliance.
Carbon intensity legislation examples (left), and credits generated by fuel within California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), 2011-15 (right)
Source: California Air Resources Board
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%
Germ
any
California
Germ
any
California
Germ
any
California
Germ
any
California
Germ
any
California
Germ
any
California
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fuel CI redu
ction
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015LCFS credit (to
nnes)
Ethanol Biodiesel Renewable dieselBiomethane Electricity Natural gas
© OECD/IEA 2016
Advanced biofuels anticipated to scale up from current production levels
Advanced biofuels are needed in the longer term to sustainably reduce the overall carbon footprint of the transport sector, but the industry remains in an early stage of development.
Advanced biofuels production forecast, 2015-21
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Prod
uctio
n (bi
llion
litres)
Announced advancedrenewable diesel
Announced advancedethanol
Operational and under-construction advancedrenewable dieselOperational and under-construction advancedethanol
© OECD/IEA 2016
Significant cost reduction potential identified for cellulosic ethanol
Industry expansion is anticipated to facilitate improved competiveness of cellulosic ethanol, but more widespread policy support is needed to enable cost reduction potential.
Cellulosic ethanol cost reduction potential
© OECD/IEA 2016
Biofuels are essential to the aviation industry’s decarbonisation plans
Worldwide aviation biofuels activity is evident, and uptake can grow further with regional supply chain development and actions to reduce cost premiums over conventional jet fuels.
.
Global aviation biofuel developments over 2015-16
© OECD/IEA 2016
Biofuels and low crude oil prices ‐a complex interplay
A downturn in biofuels consumption and production as a result of lower oil prices is not anticipated, although some market‐specific adverse effects are apparent.
Assessment of low oil price impacts on the biofuels industry
ImpactObserved since oil
price reduction?
Potential to occur
in extended low oil
price
environment?
Decrease in consumption in key global markets related to oil price
✗ ✓
Decrease in global biofuels production ✗ ✗
Reduced policy support ✗ ✓
Increased difficulty to attain new capacity investment
✓ ✓
Compromised blending economics ✓ ✓
Discretionary blending opportunities limited
✓ ✓
© OECD/IEA 2016
The key transport decarbonisation challenge lies in non‐OECD countriesThe key transport decarbonisation challenge lies in non‐OECD countries
Meeting the 2DS requires ambitious policies across all transport modes, with roles for a range of low carbon fuels, vehicle efficiency improvements and modal shifts.
OECD and non-OECD WTW GHG emissions from the 6DS to the 2DS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2‐eq
OECD Non‐urbanvehicle efficiency
Urban vehicleefficiency
Non‐urban low‐carbon fuels
Urban low‐carbon fuels
Non‐urbanavoid/shift
Urban avoid/shift
2DS
4DS6DS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Non‐OECD
6DS
4DS
2DS
© OECD/IEA 2016
Biofuels have a role to play across both passenger and freight transport Biofuels have a role to play across both passenger and freight transport
Conventional, and to a greater extent advanced, biofuels make key contributions within the 2DS by 2050. Especially in aviation and heavy duty road freight transport.
Fuel shares in 2050 for passenger and freight modes by scenario
0 10 20 30
2‐, 3‐wheelers
Small,medium cars
Large cars
Buses,minibuses
Rail
Air
EJ
Passenger 2DS
Fossil fuel products 1st generation biofuels 2nd generation biofuels Natural gas Electricity Hydrogen Other
0 10 20 30
3‐wheelers
LCVs
MFTs
HFTs
Rail
Shipping
EJ
Freight 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2016
Commercialisation of a range of advanced biofuels needed by the 2DSCommercialisation of a range of advanced biofuels needed by the 2DS
Electrified transport is crucial for urban transportation in 2050 within the 2DS, while non‐urban mobility requires a range of biofuel solutions.
Urban and non-urban contribution of fossil fuels alternatives within the 2DS
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2050
EJ
2DS urban
Ethanol Advanced ethanol Biodiesel Advanced biodiesel BiogasAviation biofuels Shipping biofuels Electricity Hydrogen
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2050
EJ
2DS non‐urban
© OECD/IEA 2016
Conclusions
Conventional biofuels production has slowed, but strengthenedmandates in key markets should underpin medium‐term growth.
Security of supply considerations mean Asia will lead conventionalbiofuels growth over 2015‐21.
Advanced biofuels production scale‐up by 2021 can be achieved viaincreased output from current plants & delivery of announced projects.
Clear long‐term demand signals have resulted in promisingdevelopments for aviation biofuels in a diverse number of countries.
Market specific impacts from low oil prices are observed but overallthese are not expected to stop global production growth.
Both conventional and advanced biofuels have a key role to play in theIEAs 2DS for the transport sector.
© OECD/IEA 2016
For further insights and analysis…
The Medium‐Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016 and Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 can be purchased online at:
www.iea.org
Thank you for your attention