Challenges of Water Power

Peter Kydd BSc(Edin) CEng FICEConsultant, WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff

Chair, South West Marine Energy Park

My pathway into renewables

Civil Engineering Degree in the ’70’s

• Reservoirs and Pumping Stations

• Hydropower

Design & supervision of projects overseas and in the UK

• Tidal Power

Part of a team that developed the Shoots Barrage a concept as an alternative to The Severn Barrage

• Tidal Power

• Energy White Paper 2006

• Appointed by Gov’t to lead Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study

• Policy and due diligence on many different tidal power proposals

• Currently advising Government on Swansea Bay and Cardiff Tidal Lagoons.

Project Manager - Water & Hydropower Engineering

Director of Environment Director of Strategic Consulting

Semi-retired1981 1989 -1991 2006 and ongoing

15 years

Severn Tidal Power Environment, Engineering, Politics and PR

Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study demonstrated that both barrages and lagoons were feasible although challenging and expensive

Two Private Developers emerged:

Tidal Lagoon Power with plans for Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon – 320MW

• Launched in 2011

• Awarded DCO in 2015

• Cost of £1.3bn

• Awaiting other consents

Hafren Power with plans for a revised Severn Barrage – 6,000MW

• Launched in 2010

• Cost of £25bn

• Proposed Hybrid Bill for Consents

• Withdrawn in 2013

Tidal Lagoon Power’s journey shows the many hoops before any guarantee of construction• TLP are still awaiting

• Conclusion of Contract for Difference negotiations with UK Government• Marine Licence from Welsh Government• Offshore Lease from The Crown Estate• Conclusions from an Independent Review of Tidal Lagoons by Charles Hendry

expected by the end of this year

• Other Lagoons proposed by Tidal Lagoon Power include:

For more information:www.tidallagoonpower.com

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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Generation Capacity (GW)

"Renewables Capacity (GW)"

Existing Capacity (GW)

Units generated from Existing Capacity(TWh/yr)

Electricity Demand to 2050 (TWh/yr)

Why the interest in different types of renewables when they have so many challenges and reviews?

Renewables Electricity: Today – 15% 2020 – 30%

2050 – Climate Change Act- 80% reduction in CO2

emissions

2027 – UK Gov’t estimates (12/11):35-50GW of renewables,

10 - 15GW of nuclear

2012 to 2050: Population increases from

60m to 75m

2030 – 2050: electrification of transport and heat

100GW of renewables by 2050

Gap between future demand and existing

supply

235GW of total capacity by 2050

ONS forecasts 8% growth in population to 2021 to 68m. Biggest increases in:

London: 14.2%East: 10.2%South East: 9.2%East Midlands: 8.6%South West: 8.3%Yorkshire: 7.0%West Midlands: 6.8%

And it continues.....

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

NorthernIreland

Scotland

Wales

England

Urbanisation Trends

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

United Kingdom

+11mpeople

Bristol New Housing Requirements

Source: UN

UK Population also driving demand

No more coal and older plant retiring

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Coal

Coal and gas CCS

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Renewables

Storage

Renewables – 45TWh/yr to 160 (2030)

New Nuclear – from 60TWh/yr to 100 (2030)

Gas from 90TWh/yr to 130 (2014 to 2016)

CCS from 0 to 35 TWh/yr (2017 to 2030)

TWh Generated per year from 2008 to 2030

(source: DECC October 2013)

100GW of New Capacity by 2030 (most from renewables)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Storage

Interconnectors

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal and gas CCS

Coal

GW of NEW Generation Plant to 2030

(source: DECC October 2013)

Renewables – 23GW by 2020 and 46GW by 2030

Gas – 10GW by 2020 and 30GW by 2030

New Nuclear – 2GW by 2020 and 10GW by 2030

CCS – 1GW by 2020 and 5 GW by 2030

Some of the Challenge for Renewables

• Charting a long-term pathway through developing energy policy

• Balancing environmental gains (carbon emissions reduction) and impacts (ecology and habitats for example)

• Balancing low costs to the consumer but achieving sustainable levels of investment

• Developing both the financial and economic cases • Reducing development and technology costs

• Reducing the cost of capital through better management of risk

• Increasing UK supply chain development and participation

• The weather!

These challenges are inspiring to engineering and environment professionals alike – Good luck with your studies!