perspectives on u.s. investment beneath the tip of …...perspectives on u.s. investment beneath the...
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Perspectives on U.S. investment
beneath the tip of the iceberg
Ninth Annual Outlook on the Commercial Real Estate Market
Sean CoghlanDirectorInvestment Research
January 2016
After a historic year with mixed signals, investor sentiment
cautiously bullish heading into 2016
2
Source: JLL Research
Solid domestic job growth shows no signs of weakness
3
+292,000(63 consecutive months
of growth)1-month net change
+2,650,000(+1.9% y-o-y)
12-month change
+796,000
10-year average annual growth
5.0%
Unemployment rate
-60bp
12-month change in unemployment
7.0%
10-year average unemployment
5,383,000(+11.0% y-o-y)
Job openings
5,137,000(+0.6% y-o-y)
Hires
2,779,000(+1.9% y-o-y)
Quits
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4
Leading the world as we’ve known it to change
Steady rise of allocations to real estate
Foreign capital & FIRPTA
Record levels of opportunistic fund raising
Source: JLL Research
Federal funds rate increase
The future path for rates? Fed & Market paths divergent
5
The Fed sees four 25 basis point increases in 2016; The futures market is now betting on just one
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb
-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-1
6Aug
-16
Sep
-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb
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Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-1
7
Aug
-17
Sep
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Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb
-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-1
8Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Longer-run
Fed
eral fund
s rate expectations (%
)
End-2018
End-2016
End-2017
Longer-runImplied Rate from Fed Fund Futures, Jan. 14, 2015
Median of FOMC participants midpoint of target range or target level, latest forecast (Dec. 16, 2015)
Source: JLL Research, CME Group, Federal Reserve
U.S. property clock shows momentum across sectors:
Markets tightening, rents growing, construction rising
6
Peaking market
Falling market
Rising market
Bottoming market
Multifamily
Hotel, Industrial
CBD office
Suburban office
Retail
Source: JLL Research, NCREIF
Sun Belt—with 13.1 million square feet of office absorption—
and diversified markets continue to gain momentum
7
NYC and DC (*excludes Midtown South)
Tech markets (*includes Midtown South)
Energy markets
Sun Belt
All other markets
70.0%
29.7%
6.4%
2010
5.1%
33.5%
19.0%
18.4%
23.9%
2011
37.5%
26.0%
29.1%
7.4%
2012
11.1%
21.6%
22.3%
18.6%
26.4%
2013
13.7%
23.1%
15.3%
20.1%
27.8%
2014
0.9%
31.3%
4.1%
23.6%
40.2%
2015
Source: JLL Research – figures denote share of annual office net absorption
Market fundamentals driving investment activity, up 25.1 percent
in 2015 and positioned to surpass 2007 peak in 2016
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$0.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
Total investmen
t sale volumes (b
illions of $US)
Multifamily Industrial Office Retail Hotels Forecast
24%
Forecasted
FY 2016:
~10%
22%
19%
Source: JLL Research, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions larger than $5.0m; Includes portfolio, entity-level transactions)
25%
Secondary office momentum realized in 2015 with 11 markets
exceeding $1.0b, led by Atlanta, Dallas-Forth and Philadelphia
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$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
Secon
dary market office volum
es (m
illions of $US)
2014 2015
Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
Which secondary markets rising to the top this cycle? The
NERDS
10
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cap
rates (%
)
Primary markets Secondary markets NERDS markets
Source: JLL Research, NCREIF
Prior cycle
Current cycle
Depth of portfolio and entity-level transactions expanding
11
In search of yield and scale, large, structured transactions rising via portfolio and entity-level investment
Source: JLL Research, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions larger than $5.0m; Excludes hotels)
26.6%23.3%
21.5%
27.2% 26.5%
30.9%
48.7%
22.5%20.3%
24.2%
28.3%25.6%
33.8%
28.4%
34.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
$-
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0
$400.0
$450.0
$500.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
Investmen
t sale volumes (b
illions of $
US)
Portfolio Single asset Portfolios (as a % of total activity)
What do higher interest rates mean for private RE performance?
12
Bad for Bonds, But Not Necessarily for Private Real Estate: US Example Below
• Since 1980, years with 50 basis point + increases in Fed Funds rate
YearIncrease in Fed Funds Rate
YE Fed Funds Rate Target
Real Estate Return
(NCREIF ODCE)S&P 500 Return
Corporate Bond Return
2006 +100 bps 5.25% 16.3% 15.8% 4.6%
2005 +200 bps 4.25% 21.4% 4.9% 2.0%
2004 +125 bps 2.25% 13.1% 10.9% 5.6%
2000 +100 bps 6.50% 14.3% -9.1% 9.3%
1999 +75 bps 5.50% 13.2% 21.0% -1.6%
1994 +250 bps 5.50% 6.1% 1.3% -3.5%
1988 +187 bps 8.75% 7.3% 12.4% 8.0%
1987 +88 bps 6.88% 6.7% 2.0% 2.6%
1983 +100 bps 9.50% 13.2% 17.3% 8.2%
Best in Year Middle in Year Worst in Year
In 8 of last 9 years when the Fed Funds rate has increased US real estate has out-performed bonds. US private real estate also outperformed equities in 6 of the last 9 years when the Fed Funds rate increased.
Source: LaSalle Investment Management, Bloomberg
13
In the driver’s seat – Key dynamics to watch in 2016
Capital supply-demand imbalance
Secondary market momentum tested
Offensive, value add capital focused on non-core
Diversification of foreign capital
Real estate M&A
Source: JLL Research
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