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Perspectives on the role and value of CCU in
climate change mitigation
Niall Mac Dowell Imperial College London
@niallmacdowell
Key questions on CO2 capture and utilisation
1.What is it?
2.Why do we want it?
3.Will it mitigate climate change?
4.Is it likely to be cost effective?
5.Will it deliver CCS?
CCU archetypes: “catch and release”
Fossil carbon; coal, oil, gas..
C
C
S
CH3OH
H2
O2
>95%
CO2 CH3OH
400
ppmCO2
Energy flow
Mass flow
CCU archetypes: “two bites of the cherry”
Fossil carbon; coal, oil, gas..
CH3OH
H2
O2
>95%
CO2 CH3OH
400
ppmCO2
Energy flow
Mass flow
DAC
Stored CO2
C
C
S
CCU archetypes: “circular economy”
CH3OH CH3OH
400
ppmCO2
>95%
CO2
H2O
O2 H2 DAC
Energy flow
Mass flow
Why CCU?
• There are many reasons to “like” CCU:
1. C1 chemistry
2. Applied catalysis
3. Energy storage
4. Producing and using renewable energy
5. More environmentally benign chemical processes
6. Combatting climate change
• Many reasons to like CCU, climate change mitigation is not “it”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Gt C
O2/y
r
Year
BP Data
High (2.8%/yr)
Med (2.38%/yr)
Low (1.96%/yr)
6DS (1.4%)
2DS
Quantifying the mitigation challenge
2DS
6DS
Last 5 years
Last 15 years
Average since
1965
BP Statistical review, 2014, IEA ETP 2012 and 2014
Quantifying the mitigation challenge (MC)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 2010 2060
Gt C
O2/y
r
Year
BP Data
6DS (1.4%)
2DS
• MC ≥800 GtCO2 by 2050
• IEA suggests 14 – 40% by CCS
• Implies > 120GtCO2 sequestered by CCS by 2050
• Equivalent to ~ 3.5 years of total global emissions today
• 1% of MC ≈ 8 – 10 GtCO2 by 2050
MC
BP Statistical review, 2014, IEA ETP 2012 and 2014
What could CO2 Conversion contribute?
CO2 balance of CO2-EOR
Conventional EOR1
Advanced EOR1
Max Storage EOR1
~ 3.33bbloilProd
~ 1.67bbloilProd
~ 1.1bbloilProd
~ 1.43tCO2
em
~ 0.72tCO2
em
~ 0.48tCO2
em
1 tCO2
inj
1 tCO2
inj
1 tCO2
inj
0.43tCO2
Net
-0.28tCO2
Net
-0.52tCO2
Net
1: IEA, “Storing CO2 through Enhanced Oil Recovery”, 2015, 2: https://www.epa.gov/energy/ghg-equivalencies-calculator-calculations-and-references 3: Mui, et al., “GHG Emission Factors for High Carbon Intensity Crude Oils”, NRDC, 2010
Must consider what gets displaced, e.g., unconventional oil with a CO2 intensity of 108 – 173% of conventional oil3
What could CO2-EOR contribute?
CO2 EOR Oil Miscible CO2 Oil
Ratio Upper
bound Lower
bound
Recovery Basin (tonnes/Bbl
) CO2 Stored CO2
Stored Region Name (MMBO) Count (Gt) (Gt)
Asia Pacific 18,376 6 0.27 5 2.76 Central and South America 31,697 6 0.32 10.1 4.75 Europe 16,312 2 0.29 4.7 2.45 Former Soviet Union 78,715 6 0.27 21.6 11.81 Middle East and North
Africa 230,640 11 0.3 70.1 34.60 North America/Non-U.S. 18,080 3 0.33 5.9 2.71 United States 60,204 14 0.29 17.2 9.03 South Asia - 0 N/A - Sub-Saharan Africa and
Antarctica 14,505 2 0.3 4.4 2.18 Total 468,529 50 0.296 139 70
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, CO2 Storage in Depleted Oilfields: Global Application Criteria for Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery, Report IEA/CON/08/155
How well matched are the sources and sinks?
Mac Dowell, et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017
How big might CO2-EOR grow?
Nothing in life is free
• Low carbon energy – Intermittent renewable energy (poor capacity factor/credit)
• Wind $63.7 – 157.4/MWh1
• Solar $85 – 242/MWh1
– Geothermal energy (not widely available)
– Geothermal energy $46.5/MWh1
• Low carbon/renewable H2 production – CAPEX ~ $1,100 – 1,200/kgH2.day for a 1,000 kgH2/day unit2
– OPEX ~ $2.67/kgH2 (geothermal), $3.7 – 10.69/kgH2 (on/offshore wind) 2,3
– For comparison, H2 production via SMR ~ $1-2/kg as a function of CH4 prices4
• Available CO2 – Cost $60 – 100/tCO2 for CCS1, $600 – 1,000/tCO2 for DAC5
1: www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm
2: NREL, “Current (2009) State-of-the-Art Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Water Electrolysis” 3: I E A/H I A T A S K 2 5 : High Temperature Hydrogen Productions Process: Alkaline Electrolysis
4: NRES, “Hydrogen Supply: Cost Estimate for Hydrogen Pathways - Scoping Analysis”, 2002 5: House, PNAS, 2011, Ranjan, Energy Procedia, 2011
CO2 and energy balance of CO2-MeOH
Catalytic hydrogenation of CO2
1 tCH3OH
0.12 tCO2/tCH3OH
1.48 tCO2/tCH3OH
0.2 tH2/tCH3OH
1.82 tH2O/tCH3OH
40.6 GJel/tCH3OH 3.0 GJth/tCH3OH
1: É.S. Van-Dal, C. Bouallou, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2013, 57, 38 – 45 2: Atlason and Unnthorsson, "Ideal EROI (energy return on investment) deepens the understanding of energy systems". Energy, 2014, 67, 241–45.
3: Hall, et al., "EROI of different fuels and the implications for society". Energy Policy, 2013, 64, 141–52.
A fuel or energy must have an EROEI ratio of at least 3:1 to be considered realistically viable as a prominent fuel or energy source2,3
EROEI = Energy Delivered
Energy Required to Deliver that Energy= 0.451
CO2-MeOH as a gasoline substitute?
• Can also compare MeOH and gasoline (petrol) on an energy basis (potentially controversial)
All data for energy density, CO2 intensity, gal/bbl, etc.from: https://www.epa.gov/energy/ghg-equivalencies-calculator-calculations-and-references, https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=327&t=9 and http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=307&t=11
1 bblOil 19 Galgasoline/bbloil = 53.22 kggasoline/bbloil
2,469 MJgasoline/bbloil 164.46 kgCO2/bbloil
125.36 kgMeOH/bbloil 188.04* kgCO2/bbleq
• *188.04kgCO2/bbleq = 125.36 kgMeOH/bbleq(1.38 kgCO2/kgMeOH) + 0.12(125.36) kgCO2/kgMeOH
• Using CO2-derived MeOH for fuel could result in as much as 114% of the CO2 that would otherwise be associated with gasoline/petrol for an equivalent transport service
CCU is fine, with Direct Air Capture…if you can afford it…
Cost of DAC: $500/tCO2 < $DAC <$1,000/tCO2
House, et al., PNAS, 2011
Cost effectiveness of CO2 to methanol?
CO2 utilisation ≠ CO2 sequestration
Process Lifetime of storage
Urea < 6 months
Methanol < 6 months
Inorganic Carbonates Decades
Organic Carbonates Decades
Polyurethanes Decades
Technological Days to years
Food and Drink Days to years
Geological
sequestration
Centuries
• The storage of CO2 is typically short term – especially for largest sinks; methanol and urea. • “Short term” storage will not have significant climate benefit • “Short term” is anything less than ~ 1,000 years
Data from Wilcox, Carbon Capture
Will CCU deliver CCS?
• In the US, CO2-EOR, “maybe”
• CO2 transport and injection infrastructure is available, and written off
• The challenge is capturing CO2 at an attractive cost at current oil prices
• Tax incentives via CO2 tax credits likely to remain important
• In the UK/EU, “no”
• There is no CO2 transport infrastructure – this needs to be deployed
• The lack of infrastructure adds substantial cross-chain risk to any CCS
• Cross-chain risk is not currently “bankable”
• CCS infrastructure requires projects on the order of 10 Mt/yr for economies of scale
• End-to-end saline aquifer storage projects at > 10 Mt/yr scale are required to
“derisk” CCS
• This will lead to material cost reductions, kt/yr slip-stream projects will not
Will CCU deliver CCS?
Some conclusions
• The IEA 2DS involves mitigating > 800 GtCO2 to 2050
• CO2-EOR can deliver 4.5% of this – perhaps up to 8 – 10%
• CO2 conversion could deliver 0.49 – 0.6%
• CCU will not deliver CCS – kt vs. Mt scale projects
• CCU bottleneck: the availability of affordable, renewable H2
• Niche opportunities: plastics (DREAM process) waste carbonation (Carbon8), cement curing (Solidia technologies)
• Beware of unintended consequences, e.g., CO2 to MeOH emits 114% of the CO2 emissions associated with gasoline..?
• CCU likely a distraction from climate change mitigation
If I have “surplus electricity”, what should I do?
Sternberg and Bardow, Energy and Environmental Science, 2015
Nothing in life is free
• Low carbon energy
– Intermittent renewable energy = poor capacity factor/credit
• Wind (CF: 36 – 38%) $73.6 – 196.9/MWh1,
• Solar (CF: 20 – 25%) $125.3 – 239.7/MWh1
– Geothermal energy is not widely available – Iceland’s CRI example is quite unique here
• Geothermal energy (CF: 92%) $47.8/MWh1,
• Low carbon/renewable H2 production
– Alkaline water electrolysis is mature, operating on scale, e.g., 3,000 kg/hr in Egypt
– Not well suited to intermittent operation (this is improving)
– CAPEX ~ $1,100 – 1,200/kgH2.day for a 1,000 kgH2/day unit2
– OPEX ~ $2.67/kgH2 (geothermal), $3.7/kgH2 (onshore wind) $10.69/kgH2 (offshore wind) with current SOTA performance2,3
– For comparison, H2 production via SMR ~ $1-2/kg as a function of CH4 prices4
• Available CO2
– Cost $60 – 100/tCO2 for CCS, $600 – 1,000/tCO2 for Direct Air Capture
1: www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm
2: NREL, “Current (2009) State-of-the-Art Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Water Electrolysis” 3: I E A/H I A T A S K 2 5 : High Temperature Hydrogen Productions Process: Alkaline Electrolysis
4: NRES, “Hydrogen Supply: Cost Estimate for Hydrogen Pathways - Scoping Analysis”, 2002
How is the UK system likely to evolve?
Mac Dowell and Staffell, Int. J. GHG Con., 2016
Surplus renewable electricity?
Mac Dowell and Staffell, Int. J. GHG Con., 2016