Perspectives on the Future What exactly is doomed ?
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DESCRIPTIONPerspectives on the Future What exactly is doomed ?. Bob Lloyd Energy Studies . Cheer up Christchurch . . If you think its bad here it is likely to get much worse elsewhere . What is not doomed? . The future is not doomed, time will not stop. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
What is doomed ?
Perspectives on the Future
What exactly is doomed ?
Bob Lloyd Energy Studies
Cheer up Christchurch If you think its bad here it is likely to get much worse elsewhere What is not doomed? The future is not doomed, time will not stop. The earth is not doomed, at least not for a billion years or so. Humanity is probably not doomed; even James Lovelock talks of a few breeding pairs surviving in Antarctica. What may be doomed ?The worlds physical resources, especially energy are reaching limits The existing biosphere is degrading Many people in fragile and marginal environments are doomed: they are already dying Resource wars are dooming more people Many species are doomed: they are currently becoming extinct at an alarming rate Many freshwater supplies are degrading Fertile soils are degrading Our economic system and worlds fixation on growth, wealth and GDP are doomed: they cannot survive a declining world energy supply
In Doomsaying Timing is everything Prominent doomers who got the timing wrong
Malthus ( 200 years ago) Paul Erlich (v Julian Simon Meadows et al Club of Rome report 1972
Physical Resources reaching limits (Energy) Fossil fuels Oil Coal GasNuclear Renewables can they save us?
Oil data to June 2011
Oil consumption is flat lining
Oil Drum 2011 7IEA on Peak Oil 28th April 2011 Fatih Birol - Chief Economist IEA interviewed on Australian Television recently
Peak oil is not synchronous Developing countries are generally still increasing consumption
Developed countries are static or decreasing
OIL - Colin Campbells latest scenario puts peak oil (all liquids) at 2010: GAS a decade later in 2020OIL 2010Colins EUR for conventional oil = 1.9T bbls All liquids 2.5T bbls
GAS 202012What about coal?There must be lots of coal everyone says so !
13But coal reserve data is old and dated
A similar analysis to peak oil analysis was carried out by the German Energy Watch Group and they found peak coal could come as early as 2025 :albeit with a relatively flat plateau 202514Padzek and Croft predict peak coal in 2011 using a multicycle Hubbert analysis: Energy Policy 2010
More realistic study by Minqi Li University of Utah Predicts peak coal for China AND the ROW by 2027 Oil Drum July 2011
What about Climate change?
The earth is warming and the culprit is CO2 Climate Change
Current June 2011 CO2 is 393.7 ppm
Safe levels 450ppm CO2e IPCC
Jim Hansen 350 ppm CO2
19According to Jim Hansen the safe level of CO2 of 350 ppm is only possible if 1. No coal used after 2030 All coal emissions halted in 19 years
2. No Unconventional Fossil Fuels Tar sands, Oil shale, Methane hydrates
3. Only conventional oil used NO Polar regions, Deep ocean, Pristine land, No deep ocean oil off NZ20
Tipping points and runaway climate change once temperatures go above 2 o C
Current effects Fires in RussiaFloods in Australia, Pakistan, China .... Tornados, Twisters and Hurricanes in various places Famines in East Africa Droughts various Back to energy:What about Nuclear? (Presently 6% of world energy supply from around 450 reactors)
Maybe not FUKUSHIMA 201124What about Renewables ?
PV transition model for world electricity supply can solar replace fossil fuels ? Pessimistic and Optimistic embodied energy parameters for arrays ranging from 7000 MJ/m2 to 1750 MJ/m2Solar radiation either mid European or southern European Mineral resources needed cf world resources Costs ranging from $1/W to $4/W installed Limits of 10% of world electricity, flags % of resources Land area limit of 1% of world land area or 1.5 million km2 cf area NZ 270,000 km2Electricity growth rates ranging from BAU (2.4% pa) through steady state to collapse situations 26Conclusions from the model The transition to renewables of our present world electricity supply is technically feasible It would require considerable resources including up to 10% of world electricity supply pa to make the devices and around 10% of world GDP pa BUT Material constraints would eventually prevail, however, if we want growth beyond the middle of this century 27Energy and the economy Is oil money ?
History of oil and world GDP GDP Data from Angus Maddison in constant US $
Oil consumption is closely linked to world GDP
Does this mean a decoupling of GDP from Oil consumption ??World Debt and Coal consumption increasing
Gail the Actuary on Debt
See Gail Tvberg http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6191Why we need growth? The world economy need growth to keep people employedThe financial system needs growth to pay back debt and for interest payments The third world needs growth just to survive
BUT continuous growth is physically impossible 2.3% pa increase in energy use leads to the following:
Tom Murphy Oil Drum Madness Murphy exclaims! Highly non linear effects Originate because the world financial system is predicated on growth Including our fractional reserve banking systemDebt and interest Are all essentially a Ponzi scheme Once growth falters then the system is liable to non linear contraction
UK Govt report obtained under FOIA June 2011
Report conclusionsWhen considering the consequences of peak oil, no everyday experiences and only few historical parallels are at hand. It is therefore difficult to imagine how significant the effects of being gradually deprived of one of our civilisations most important energy sources will be.Psychological barriers cause indisputable facts to be blanked out and lead to almost instinctively refusing to look into this difficult subject in detail.
What will happen to oil prices ?Sadad Al Husseini ASPO 2009 Denver there is a ceiling to what the global economy can afford for energy. Roughly speaking, once you get to five to six percent of the global GDP being spent on oil, thats about the ceilingImplications oil price cannot go much above US$120 / barrel
Linear v non linear interactions Linear: Hirsh - oil declines at 1% pa transport declines at 1% pa. world GDP declines at 1% pa. Economists like linear interactions as they are more tractable Highly Non linear: oil declines at 1% pa world economy collapses as financial system cannot work with negative growth (Knightian, Taleb: Black Swans)Highly Non linear interactions needs systems dynamics modelling and even then chaotic systems cannot easily be modelled
Back to NZ Is NZ ready for Peak Oil ?It will depend on whether the predominant outcomes are linear or non linear and on the rates of decline of oil production
NZ Energy Data File 2011But GDP has levelled off too
Scenarios for the future Risk analysis: 4 scenarios Optimistic: oil decline rate 0.6% pa until 2030 Pessimistic: oil decline rate 4% pa World economy reaction: linearWorld economy reaction: non linear Linear 0.6% decrease paEfficiency gains and transport reorganization could mitigate crude oil declines with little adverse effects until around 2030 by which time either climate change difficulties or gas declines and coal peaking are likely to have triggered non linear responses.
Linear, 4% decrease pa
Efficiency gains could mitigate crude oil declines until around 2015 - 2020 depending on when the declines start. China and developing economies will be stressed by lack of petroleum supplies to fund further growth and the collapse of the world factory, among other problems, including climate change, are likely to trigger non linear responses elsewhere.Highly Non linear, 0.6% decrease
Oil supply decline will trigger a slowdown in world economies and the world will move to a period of stagnating recession alternating with periods of recovery. Evidence for this scenario has already appeared. What follows is likely to be a series of peaks and downturns in the world economy as the non linear interaction unfolds and the world adjust to a declining oil supply.
Highly Non linear 4% decrease
A 4% oil supply decline per annum will trigger a run on the world stock markets triggering a substantial world depression necessitating a revision of the world monetary system.
Why have we let the world get to a situation whereby the inertia of the global system will make mitigation of these problems, in time to avert an energy decline and an environmental catastrophe , difficult or impossible ?WHY WHY?52I have explored possible reasons for this apparent insanity
Brain development : evolutionary deficits in the brain Koestler the growth delusion
It appears to me that: Our ability to solve complex problems such as climate change and peak oil may be compromised by the structure of our brain - not allowing us to mitigate in a rational mannerOur recent belief in Growth parallels our longer term belief in Religion they may tap into the same areas of the brain Growth suits big business and through neuro-marketing this gives another level of reinforcementIn addition growth is needed by people in the third world for just for survival 54Fossil fuels are profitable
The 800 billion tones of coal in the ground is worth around US$ 40 trillion at US$ 50/tonneThe remaining 800 billion barrels of oil is worth around US$ 64 trillion at US$80 per barrel.
55Eric Fromm: The Sane Society 1956Argued that society in mid 1950s was in fact insane The reasons he gave were:War: 8000 conflicts between 1500BC and 1860AD average 2.4 per annum Economy: Wars ,contribute to GDP, consumption and waste contributes, growth is paramount , NO emphasis on well being just on having more stuffMedia and advertising: population filled with mindless trivia the cheapest trash and sadistic fantasies Since then Wars: Wikipedia count of conflicts since WWII is around 200 or 2.7 per annum . % killed, number killed increasing and now we have thermonuclear weapons , drones, cluster bombs, depleted uranium. Economy: is now out of control Europe is on life support. Greece has just made a technical default. The US is deadlocked trying to raise its debt limit above 14.3 trillion US$ Media and advertising: the Murdoch circus has hit town and the culpability of the media in contributing to the insanity is finally being recognised . We now have neuromarketing targeted on children, 3D exceedingly violent computer games , mobile advertising etc. I think the real question we have to answer is: Are people actually capable of independent thought?Can they resist the media, neuromarketing, the global advertising machine, the war machine, the growth economy and the mindless pursuit of more wealth and ever more stuff? AND Can the rich decrease their consumption to allow the poor to increase theirs ? Questions and discussion