Contact:1300 36 67 96www.spatialvision.com.au

Peri-Urban Futures Final ReportSpatial Vision, in partnership with RMIT and Latrobe universities, has developed a methodology for modelling peri-urban development pressures and anticipated impacts. Applied across the peri-urban areas of Melbourne, the analysis helps provide a quantitative and strategic understanding of the role played by demographic and development trends for strategic, employment and service planning.

The modelling identifies when and where increases in population and resultant residential development will impact environmental, agricultural production and other values.

Peri-Urban Futures Final Report presents, for the first time, an evaluation of the potential of areas fringing Melbourne to accommodate growth. The Study Area is bounded to the south by Melbourne’s urban- rural edge, to the west by the transport corridor to the city of Ballarat and the north by the transport corridor to the city of Bendigo. The Report estimates current and potential land supply and the capacity to meet residential demand to 2041. For rural areas, it compares dwelling yields under three scenarios, transfers rural dwelling land supply to townships and explores the transfer of rural dwelling demand. For urban areas, it explores how demand in townships can be met through alternative development scenarios.

The Report is designed to help inform strategic policies and directions by State and Local Government, researchers and the community.

The IssueWorldwide, peri-urban regions (those areas immediate outside of major urban centres) are demanding more attention, as continued urban expansion creates a complex set of consequences and planning challenges.Settlement patterns and the factors driving them in addition to likely impacts provide critical information to help planners better understand what is occurring in these dynamic areas. However, to analyse and understand the dynamics of this change is difficult for most planners. By applying a consistent evidence-based approach, ad hoc planning decisions may be avoided and more desirable, alternative futures achieved.

In the Victorian context, peri-urban regions contain:

The Solution

The Benefits

Final Report

Supports informed strategic policies and directions by Government, researchers and the community.Allows exploration of integrated rural and urban land use and planning scenarios.Is readily transferable to other jurisdictions.Framework is transparent, modular and readily updateable as new information becomes available.

Project PartnersRMIT University School of Global Studies, Social Science and Planning La Trobe University School of Humanities

LocationVictoria

SolutionA methodology for undertaking a quantitative and strategic analysis of issues and pressures facing the peri-urban regions of Melbourne. A spatially explicit modelling framework was developed enabling the ready exploration of a variety of rural and urban based development and policy scenarios. The Peri-Urban Futures Final Report presents the principal findings.

Benefits

Socio-economic trendsSettlement patterns and scenarios for rural areasHousing options for urban settlementsThe role played by environmental values and natural resources for the region.

Illustrates the impacts of peri-urbanisation through the examination of supply, demand and development pressure.Links quantitative scenario modelling with qualitative research on local and global strategies and approaches.Applies a sound spatially explicit framework to explore future rural and urban based settlement scenarios.Examines peri-urban land-use through alternative development case studies.Links urban and rural futures and models their complex inter-relationships.Provides insights into realising peri-urban futures through existing and proposed policy instruments.

Central to the approach followed in this latest work under the Peri-urban Futures initiative is the integration of an analysis of both rural and urban land supply and demand, and the actual and potential relationships between rural and urban areas. This final report proposes a number of interventionist policy scenarios to reduce projected rural dwelling growth and transfer it to townships and regional centres. Rural land supply is compared to estimated dwelling demand and the timing of expected development. Timing is estimated accord-ing to development pressure exerted, calculated using an index based on infrastructure and services, demo-graphic trends, environmental influences and locational factors.

Significant native vegetation that supports complex natural ecosystems.Areas highly prone to natural disasters such as bushfire, flooding and coastal inundation.Highly productive agricultural land.Sensitive water catchments and groundwater.Areas vulnerable to shocks in the climate system.

The final Peri-Urban Futures Initiative report, titled ‘Alternative Futures for Melbourne’s Peri-Urban Region’, provides the key findings of this collaborative research project and draws together the urban and rural scenario modelling. The report also draws on the work undertaken under various project streams that includes:

Other Reports

Housing Futures 2012 Download Initial Urban Peri-urban Futures Initiative Report here

Download Final Peri-urban Futures Initiative Report here

http://www.periurbanfu-tures.com/download/Bux-ton_et_al_AltFu-turesMelbPeriUrban_Dec2014.pdf

Rural Futures 2014:

Download Rural Peri-urban Futures Initiative Report here

http://www.periurbanfu-tures.com/down-load/Fish_et_al_Rural_Alt-FuturesMelbPeriUrban_Apr2014_Report_4.pdf

http://www.periurbanfu-tures.com/download/Groenhart_et_al_-Set-tlements_AltFuturesMelbPeriUrban_May2013_Report_5.pdf