perdagangan internasional & investasi asing … internasional & investasi asing jangka...
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Perdagangan Internasional & Investasi Asing Jangka Panjang
Kiki Verico, Ph.D
Cakupan
1. Mengapa negara membutuhkan perdagangan?
2. Mengapa negara membutuhkan investasi?
2. Mengapa negara membutuhkan perdagangan?
https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xfa1/t51.2885-15/s306x306/e15/10986254_620265724773402_1398315305_n.jpg
Mengapa Harus Dagang?
1. “Trade can make everybody better off ” (do not produce something that cheaper if you buy, A. Smith, 1776)
2. Autarky is nearly impossible
3. Specialization is nature as we are all relative
4. Absolute, Comparative, Abundance, Specialization, Networks, Competitive
5. Import substitution is misleading
6. Openness starts from trade, investment thus finance: Money follow Goods
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/12/24/can-asean-achieve-economic-community.htmlhttp://goliveindonesia.com/2013/05/02/asean-economic-integration-challenges-and-strategies/http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/blogs/indonesiaproject/?p=2950
7
The Large - Economic Size - Member is the High-Income Country
17.0%
13.6%13.1% 12.6%
9.6%
3.5%
2.0%
8.0%
2.3%1.8%
1.2%
2.3%
1.1%
2.2%
1.0%
2.2% 2.1%
1.1%
0.1%
1.5%
0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
20.9%
15.9%15.1%
12.3%
8.1%
4.7%
3.2% 3.0% 2.9%2.4%
1.9%1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
0.8% 0.6% 0.3%0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
% Population & % GDP of Total EU, 2012
%Population %GDP
Source: own calculation using the WDI-WB dataset
8Source: own calculation using the WDI-WB dataset
71,620
59,850
55,970
47,970 47,66046,490
44,660 44,260
41,750
39,110 38,670
33,860
29,620
26,110
23,260 22,80020,620
18,120 17,180
14,120 13,83012,660 12,380
6,840
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$),2012
HIC>US$ 12,616US$ 12,615>UMIC>US$4,086
The Large - Economic Size - Member is the High-Income Country
9http://www.apex-foundation.org/wp-content/uploads/european-entities-member-countries.png
10Source: http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/blogs/indonesiaproject/2013/05/03/asean-economic-integration-challenges-and-strategies/
11
The Large - Economic Size - Member is not the High-Income Country
Source: Own calculation using WDI-WB data
0.9%0.1%
4.8%
11.0%
40.6%
15.9%14.6%
1.1%2.4%
8.7%
12%
1%
13%
16%
38%
11%
7%
0% 1% 1%0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Laos Cambodia Myanmar
% Population & %GDP to total ASEAN, 2012
% Population to Total ASEAN Population % GDP to Total ASEAN GDP
12
The High-Income Country is not the Large - Economic Size - Member
Source: Own calculation using WDI-WB data
47,210
34,173
9,820
5,210
3,420 2,500
1,550 1,270 880 284
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Laos Cambodia Myanmar
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$), 2012
LI<$ 1,035$1,036<LM<$4,085$4,086<UM<$12,615HI>$12,616
HICSin,Bru
UMICMlysa,Thai
LMICIna,Phi,Viet,Lao
LICCbd,Mynmr
13Source: own calculation using the WDI-WB dataset
Consistent between share of productivity in area and GNI per Capita
Country %GDP/%Pop GNP/Cap
Singapore 13.77 Singapore
Brunei 10.95 Brunei
Malaysia 2.78 Malaysia
Thailand 1.46 Thailand
Indonesia 0.95 Indonesia
Philippines 0.69 Philippines
Vietnam 0.47 Vietnam
Laos 0.38 Laos
Cambodia 0.25 Cambodia
Myanmar 0.07 Myanmar
14
Economic Community: FDI Inflows
‘U.S. based surveys... revealed that U.S. firms were stepping up their investments in the Community (EC/CU) in anticipation of the benefits likely to be incurred by firms producing within the Community and no less important, to avoid the costs likely to be incurred by those remaining outside.... that by
remaining outside of the EU become less attractive to U.S. investors’
(John H. Dunning, 1990)
Free flows of goods (trade), capital (investment), trade related services, whole services, free flows of people, free flows of money (monetary union & single currency)
International NetworksMarket driven factors
FDI inflows role in Regional Production Network/RPN (Flying Geese Model of Akamatsu, 1944; Kojima, 1978; Aoki, 1992; Urata, 1993) on ASEAN-5
RPN is behind the Southeast Asia economic integration before the ECBN/guanxi (Wang, 2001) & KPN of Thailand & ASEAN-4 (Cheong, 2011)
FDI inflows stimulate knowledge & education advancement in host-countries (Hejazi & Safarian, 1999)and higher education & political economic stability stimulate FDI inflows (Aggarwal, 2008)
Endogenous relation (Hejazi & Pauly, 2003)
3. Mengapa negara membutuhkan investasi?
Source: Calculated on Indonesia based on World Bank data, 2016
Source: Verico, K., 2016
Source: IMF Report, April 2016
Red:trade, Blue:FDIYellow:InternationalReserve
Source: IMF Report, April 2016
Source: Own calculation
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
LNCHN LNINA
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
LNCHN LNMLY
11.00
11.25
11.50
11.75
12.00
12.25
12.50
12.75
13.00
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
LNCHN LNTHAI
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
LNCHN LNPHI
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
LNCHN LNVIE
Source: IMF Report, April 2016
Source: TE,2016
Source: IMF Report, April 2016
Source: IMF Report, April 2016
http://www.pajak.go.id/statistik-amnesti
Source: Verico, K.,, Indonesia IO Table 2010
Government Expenditure Multiplier Based On Input Output Table
Source: Verico, K., based on World Bank data, 2016
Traditional
Pre-Condition for take-off
Take-off
Maturity
High Mass Consumption
“Choosing Success”: Competitiveness
1. Export Oriented: Korea (Chaebol: bank financing) Success Story
2. World Supply Chain: Taiwan (Bee’s Model:SME’s) Success Story
3. Protection & Local Winner (Monopoly) Proton & Krakatau (Steel, Automotive & Machinery, no progress)
4. Government Intervention Innovation (RnD) instead of Protection
5. Competitive industry Innovation & Entrepreneurship (Social Movement)
Source: Verico, K., based on World Bank data, 2016
Traditional Pre-Condition for take-off
Take-off
2010-2015 Japan South Korea China
Sub-SectorNumber of
Project
FDI Inflows (Realization) in 000 US$
Rank Value
Number of Project
FDI Inflows (Realization) in 000 US$
Rank Value
Number of Project
FDI Inflows (Realization) in 000 US$
Rank Value
Food Crops & Plantation 15 5,588 3 53 153,124 1 27 141,100 2
Livestock 5 7,742 1 17 7,595 2 1 0 3
Forestry 4 184 3 31 67,244 1 4 248 2
Fishery 39 11,051 1 10 7,615 2 27 2,303 3
Mining 23 148,309 3 117 821,338 1 359 337,541 2
Total Primary Sector 86 172,873 3 228 1,056,916 1 418 481,191 2
Food Industry 145 528,249 1 106 159,909 2 64 111,122 3
Textile Industry 137 526,517 2 614 600,247 1 14 5,274 3
Leather Goods & Footwear Industry 5 0 3 228 304,105 1 23 4,847 2
Wood Industry 26 16,402 2 53 25,948 1 22 8,457 3
Paper and Printing Industry 52 387,949 1 79 14,893 2 15 6,791 3
Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry 216 840,559 1 175 395,493 2 35 31,534 3
Rubber and Plastic Industry 206 428,761 2 254 696,408 1 33 121,105 3
Non Metallic Mineral Industry 33 76,345 2 24 21,987 3 49 97,226 1
Metal, Machinery & Electronic Industry 882 2,344,515 2 521 3,572,992 1 258 317,934 3
Medical Preci. & Optical Instru, Watches & Clock Industry 9 2,734 2 9 9,913 1 1 0 3
Motor Vehicles & Other Transport Equip. Industry 775 7,500,682 1 19 15,951 2 18 12,998 3
Other Industry 77 59,563 2 229 143,294 1 35 11,155 3
Total Secondary Sector 2,563 12,712,276 1 2,311 5,961,139 2 567 728,441 3
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 23 323,121 2 19 287,113 3 53 371,643 1
Construction 71 86,186 1 116 53,286 3 62 78,559 2
Trade & Repair 649 426,370 1 1,137 228,758 2 695 134,670 3
Hotel & Restaurant 109 38,484 2 117 53,076 1 28 3,014 3
Transport, Storage & Communication 88 119,230 2 71 105,937 1 34 29,777 3
Real Estate, Ind. Estate & Business Activities 82 604,140 1 53 41,473 3 40 113,019 2
Other Services 446 115,932 1 325 43,995 2 51 5,467 3
Total Tertiary Sector 1,468 1,713,462 1 1,838 813,638 2 963 736,149 3
Source: Own Calculation based on BKPM data, 2015
% Total Without Joint Countries Investment & They are >56% of Total FDI Inflows in Indonesia
2009-2010 to 2011/2013
Mining USA (45%-47%); Mauritius (0%-17%); Singapore (24%-11%); Netherlands (0% -10%)
Transport, Storage & Communication
Singapore (66%-79%); Netherlands (23%-18%)
Metal, Machinery & Electronic Industry
Korea (34%-54%); Japan (32%-23%);Singapore (11%-4%)
Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry
United Kingdom (0-35%); Japan (6-14%); Australia (25%-14%); Singapore (16%-10%); Netherlands (2%-8%); Korea (4%-7%)
Motor Vehicles & Other Transport Equip. Industry
Japan (67%-89%); Germany (17%-3%); Singapore (11%-3%); USA (0%-2%)
Source: Own Calculation based on BKPM Data, 2014
33
FDI Inflows to ASEAN’s Host Country by Home Country 1995-2005 (US$ Million: Cumulative)
Source: Own calculation using Statistic of FDI, ASEAN Secretariat, 2012
Host
Home Brunei Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam TOTAL
Japan 0.75% 6.10% 0.04% 16.17% 0.22% 5.87% 29.49% 36.37% 5.00% 100%
China 0.28% 30.66% 1.48% 4.00% 6.92% 10.75% 33.97% 1.62% 10.33% 100%
Korea 0.77% 20.54% 2.19% 3.87% 1.11% 4.84% 21.56% 9.87% 35.25% 100%
USA 0.18% 3.93% 0.01% 27.18% 0.81% 6.90% 46.43% 12.74% 1.82% 100%
EU 6.86% 7.67% 0.19% 11.21% 1.85% 1.76% 57.18% 9.62% 3.67% 100%
ASEAN 3.77% 11.68% 0.74% 23.83% 2.77% 3.29% 24.81% 20.52% 8.59% 100%
Brunei -5.6% 0.0% 59.4% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 2.2% 0.6% 100%
Indonesia 1.2% 0.0% 6.1% 0.9% 0.8% 88.5% 1.2% 1.3% 100%
Laos 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% -8.3% 100% 100%
Malaysia 3.2% 18.1% 1.3% 0.8% 1.2% 60.9% 6.3% 8.2% 100%
Myanmar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.1% 2.9% 0.0% 100%
Philippines 0.7% 1.9% 0.0% 14.4% 0.6% 40.4% 34.7% 7.3% 100%
Singapore 4.9% 12.8% 0.0% 35.2% 3.3% 4.8% 30.3% 8.7% 100%
Thailand 0.6% 10.3% 12.0% 15.4% 14.2% 0.3% 10.2% 37.0% 100%
Vietnam 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 44.2% 0.0% 0.0% 38.4% 7.0% 100%
5660
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Manufacturing (343) Service (187)
Do you Know the AEC?
65
50
76
33
100
56
0 20 40 60 80 100
Trade
Construction
Tourism & CreativeEconomy
Telecommunication
Finance
Other
Know about AEC by Sub-Sector in Service
Sumber: Studi LPEM, Sementara Tidak Untuk Dikutip, 2014
Sumber: Studi LPEM, Sementara Tidak Untuk Dikutip, 2014
84
77
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Manufacturing (191) Service (113)
Readiness towards the AEC
71
63
89
100
80
76
0 20 40 60 80 100
Trade
Construction
Tourism & Creative Economy
Telecommunication
Finance
Other
Ready towards AEC by Sub-Sector of Service
Sumber: Studi LPEM, Sementara Tidak Untuk Dikutip, 2014
90
10
95
5
66
34
67
33
86
14
84
16
81
19
89
11
80
20
86
14
67
33
80
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
M S M S M S M S M S M S
Intra ASEANInvestment
Extra ASEANInvestment
Non CompetitiveMember Loss
China Obtain Benefit Service Liberalisationon Trade Related
Service
Service Liberalisationon Service Sector
Perceived Impact
OLIGOPOLY12.2
• The Linear Demand Curve—An Example
The demand curve is P =
30 − Q, and both firms
have zero marginal cost.
In Cournot equilibrium,
each firm produces 10.
The collusion curve shows
combinations of Q1 and Q2
that maximize total profits.
If the firms collude and
share profits equally, each
will produce 7.5.
Also shown is the
competitive equilibrium, in
which price equals
marginal cost and profit is
zero.
Duopoly Example
Figure 12.5
38
No Top Ten Exporting Countries Year 2010 % of World
1 Thailand 898,454 83.7%
2 Malaysia 47,773 4.5%
3 Guatemala 20,603 1.9%
4 Belgium 14,255 1.3%
5 Indonesia 12,929 1.2%
6 Cameroon 8,160 0.8%
7 India 7,407 0.7%
8 Germany 6,039 0.6%
9 United States of America 5,369 0.5%
10 Sri Lanka 4,563 0.4%
Source: Own calculation using FAO Statistic Database
Top Ten Producer Countries (Tonnes) 2011
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Tha
iland
Indo
nesia
Malay
sia
India
China
Viet N
am
Côte d'Ivoire
Niger
ia
Sri La
nka
Philip
pine
s
39
World Trade Patterns of Natural Rubber IMT (ITRO) & Non-IMT, 1988-2008 (Thousand
Tonnes/Year)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
IMT NONIMT
Source: Own Description using FAO Statistic Database
Non - Incomplete Information
Non - Bayesian
Collusive, CNE & Competitive
Collusive
Cournot-Nash
Competitive
Q1
Q1 Q2
Q2
Qcollusive
Qcollusive
QCNE
QCNE
Qcompetitive
Qcompetitive
(A/4Q1,2)
(A/3Q1,2)
(A/2Q1,2)
1.2 Q
A
2.2 Q
A
Competitive Market
TR1 = P1. Q1
= (A - Q1). Q1
= A.Q1 - Q12
MR1= A-2.Q1 = 0
; Q2 = Q1 =
1
2
.2
.4
1
Q
AQ
A
2
.2 2Q
A
2.4 Q
A
Q1 =
Q2=
Collusive Market
Cournot-Nash Equilibrium
1.2 Q
A
2
1Q2 = . Q2
2
1
.2
3
.2Q
Q
A
1.3 Q
A
2.3 Q
AQ2=
Q1=
Assumption:
*
2
*
1
* qqQK m
K qqqQ )( *
2
*
1
*
)( 2*
1* qqp
(.)(.) 1 xp
sQpK
QQp K
KK ).().( *
**
41
Microeconomic Approach :World’s Natural Rubber Trade (in Quantity)
Source: Own calculation using FAO Statistic Database
Country BFTA
China
Mexico (1999),ASEAN(2003), Australia, Costa Rica, Peru(2010),
Singapore (2009),Pakistan (2007), India (2007), Hong Kong (2004),
Macao (2004), Chile (2006), NZ (2008)
Japan
ASEAN (2008), Indonesia (2008), Philippines (2008), Malaysia
(2006), Thailand (2007), Singapore (2006), Vietnam (2009), Brunei
(2008), Mexico (2005), Chile (2007), Switzerland (2009)
South KoreaASEAN, Singapore (2006), India, EFTA (2006), Chile (2004), Peru,
USA
Singapore
China, Japan (2002),South Korea (2006), EFTA, India (2005), Sri
Lanka, Pakistan, Australia (2003), EFTA (2003) Chile, Jordan (2006),
Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, New Zealand (2001), Australia
(2003), Panama(2006), Peru (2009), USA (2004)
Malaysia Japan (2006), Pakistan (2008)
ThailandJapan (2007), Australia (2005), India, Peru, New Zealand (2005),
Singapore, Laos (1991)
Philippines Japan (2008)
Indonesia Japan (2008)
Indonesia – Pakistan PTA
Pendapat Pemerintah Pendapat Pengusaha
Legal Manfaat BiayaPersaingan
usaha
Kemungkinan
mencapai tujuanJumlah
Ekspor 42 46 34 36 44 134
Impor 41 33 31 32 36 111
Investasi 40 29 29 32 31 103
Lapangan
pekerjaan 41 29 33 30 29 96
Jumlah 164 137 127 130 140 444
Legal Manfaat BiayaPersaingan
usaha
Kemungkinan
mencapai
tujuan
Jumlah
Ekspor 13 21 18 20 17 53
Impor 11 16 16 17 16 44
Investasi 10 17 17 18 17 45
Lapangan
pekerjaan 11 15 15 16 19 46
Jumlah 45 69 66 71 69 188
10/22/2016 Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat FEB UI 43
$1.35
$0.27
$1.08
$2.11
$0.16
$1.95
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Ekspor Impor Net-Ekspor
Juta
US$
Nilai Perdagangan dengan Pakistan,2012 & 2014
2012 2014
45
FTA IndonesiaAEC
(2015) ACFTA (2002/10) AKFTA (2005/6) AJFTA (2008)AIFTA
(2010/2013/16/18) AANZFTA (2009) IJEPA (2008)
Goods √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Service √ √ √ √ √ √
Investment √ √ √ √ √ √
IPR √ √ √
CompetitionPolicy √ √ √
DisputeSettlement √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Economic &TechnicalCooperation √ √ √ √ √
ROO √ √ √ √ √ √ √
CustomCooperation √ √ √ √ √
Source: CSIS, 2013Source: CSIS, 2014
Source: Verico, 2016
Source: Own Calculation based on the WB data, 2015
Share of Macro Indicators by Country of TPP (%)
Source: LPEM Team for FTAAP
Source: Verico, 2016
Maksimisasi: TPP; RCEP;OBOR towards Regional Convergence
Source: Verico 2015
Source: http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2016/5/30/transforming-supply-chains-ketchup-in-the-tpp
Pre-TPP & Post-TPP on GVCs: Trade Diversion
Post TPP GVCs: Market Enlargement (Internal & External)
Source: http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2016/5/30/transforming-supply-chains-ketchup-in-the-tpp
Adjustment Cost to Total Gain
ASEAN Economic Convergence
Terima KasihLPEM FEB UI
25 Oktober 2016