Election Series 2001

Pre-election Nationwide Opinion Poll 2001

Conducted by

7 Circuit House RoadRamna Dhaka 1000

27 September 2001

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Field Survey Team

Saiful Islam Md. Taher Uddin S. IslamRoman Mahbub Zakir Hossain Linkon Md. AliMd Anisur Rahman Md. Salauddin Saud Abu Saleh Md. ImranMd. Mahfuzul Haq Md. Sanaul Islam Mahbub AhmedMd. Mossarrof Hossain SM Mahmudunnabi Md. Khalid MujahidGolam Mostafa Md. Zahidul Haq Md. Shafiqur RahmanMd. Zakir Hossain Jahangir Kabir Md. Auliul IslamToriqul Hassan Bhuyan Md. Nurunnabi Fakir Miraz HossainMd. Kawser Ali Md. Kabir Hossain Md. Mainul HaqMd. Mainul Islam Al Mamun Khan Ilora Parvin TusharShishir Ibrahim Kazi Liakot Hossain Md. Hafiz UddinSidratul Muntha Sadekun Nahar Md. Mostafizur RahmanMamun Kazi Md. Ariful Islam Md. Faizul KibriaMd. Nuruzzaman Ashik Saiful Islam Roman A. S. M. Moshiur RahmanNowshina Tasnim Md. Jahangir Hossain Md. Mizanur RahmanShekh Towfiq Ahmed Md. Zawad bin Rashid Borhan-ul-ArifinKh. Ataul Karim Md. AK Golzer Md. Kamrul HassanMd. Shahidul Islam Sazzad Ahmed Azad UddinAsma Zahan Molly Md. A. Rahman Bokul Md. Rezaul Haq Rashed

Md. Humaun Kabir

Supervisors

Md. Saiful Islam Md. Mamunur Rashid Md. Nazmul IslamG C Mozumder H. R. C. Munna Abdullah Al MamunMd. Golam Mostafa Md. Delwar Hossain Md. Nazmul Alam Aapel Mahmud Md. Mujibur Rahman Md. Zahidul Haq

Shah Md. Faisal

Data Processing

Md. Nazmul Islam SAM Mohiuddin Moin Borhan-ul-ArifinKhondoker Ataul Karim Mossarrof Hossain F M MahmudunnabiMujibur Rahman Md. Daudul Islam

Overall Supervision

Taleya RehmanMujtaba Mahbub Morshed

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Pre-election Nationwide Opinion Poll 2001

Summary

Around 75 million voters including 18 million new voters will cast their votes in this election, which

will be the largest in Bangladesh’s history.

We surveyed over 5000 people in 50 chosen constituencies, 23 had been won by Awami League,

21 by BNP, 6 by others. The seats were chosen because they were mostly marginal last time and

some seats were selected as special seats.

More than three-fourth (76.5 percent) of the respondents thought that their local administrations

were more or less neutral. Around 13 percent of the respondents thought that their local bodies

had political influence.

The BNP vote added to the 4-party alliance will push their share to 42 percent.

The Awami League vote is at 33 percent, which is consistent with the last election.

If these results of mid-September are spread across the country then it is unlikely that the Awami

League will win enough seats to form the next government on their own.

1. IntroductionOn October 1 the Eighth National Parliamentary Election 2001. This will be the 3 rd general election

under a caretaker government. For many reasons this election is very important. Firstly, the 2001

election is going to take place amidst a wide range of violence and terrorism throughout the

country. Secondly around 75 million voters including 18 million new voters will cast their vote in

this election, which will be the largest in Bangladesh’s history. Around 250,000 local and 3,000

foreign observers will monitor this election. At least one or more local or international observers

will monitor almost all polling centers and send their reports.

Unlike any other elections the electoral atmosphere and campaigns are quite different this year.

The people of the country witnessed the performances of the major two parties in the last two

elections, which were recognized as fair and neutral. So this year’s voters are getting an

opportunity to assess the past performances of the major political parties. Political polarisation in

this election is also very apparent. The recently outgoing party Awami League is on one while

Jamat-e-Islami, Islami Okkyo Jote and Fraction of the Jatiya Party led by the BNP consist the other

party. Interestingly, in this election, Jatiya Party is fragmented into 3 parts, which was the 3 rd party

during the last two elections.

Keeping this election in mind Democracywatch has carried out a pre-election opinion poll through

out the country. The main three objectives of the survey are as follow:

a) Get a picture of the election preparations and conditions

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b) Voters’ choice in selecting candidates

c) Assessing the popularities of different political parties.

The fieldwork took place between September 8 and 17 September 2001.

2. Methodology

Based upon the results of 1996 general election in 300 constituencies, 118 were included in the

sampling frame, where the differences of votes between the winner and nearest competitor were

10,000 or less. Where the differences were 3000 or less is defined as ‘marginal’ (48

constituencies) and the differences between 3,001-10,000 are defined as ‘non-marginal’ (70

constituencies). From these 118 constituencies, 25 marginal and 22 non-marginal constituencies

were chosen on random sampling basis. To include characteristics of cities, 3 more were also

chosen.

Of the total 50 chosen constituencies, in 38 districts, spread over all 6 divisions, 23 had been won

by Awami League, 21 by BNP, 4 by Jatiyo Party (Ershad), 1 by Jamat-e-Islami and 1 by Jasad

(Rob) in 1996 general election (For more details, see Table 1, 2, and 3 in Appendix I).

393 polling centers belonging to 84 Upazilla and 209 union/municipal area within the above 50

constituencies were used to conduct the poll (see Table 4, Appendix I). In every constituency, by

following random sampling, 8 polling centers, on average, were chosen from the gazettes

published by the Bangladesh Election Commission. In every constituency, on average, after 7

families, one was chosen and from this chosen family a person aged 18 or above, enlisted in the

voter lists was requested to give his or her opinion. If the person declined to be interviewed, then

again, after skipping 7 families on average, another person was chosen. By following this process

nearly 14 persons in each polling centers were interviewed. In the process a total of 5268 voters

were interviewed.

To know the background of the respondents 10 questions were asked. The main questionnaire

had 13 close-ended questions. 58 skilled interviewers under 13 supervisors completed the

interview phase.

Before conducting the interviewing phase, 2 polling centers, which were similar to the chosen 393,

were selected to test the questionnaire. The questionnaire was finalized on the basis of the pre-

test results.

After the interview phase, each questionnaire was coded and data were entered into the

computers. For these entries a specially designed database program was used. To present the

information, statistical package SPSS-PC+ was used.

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3. Respondent’s Profile

Gender % Type of area %Male 55 Urban 40Female 45 Rural 60

Age % Religion %18-30 years 41 Muslim 8831-45 years 44 Hindu 1146-60 years 12 Christian 0160+ years 03Average Age 35 years Profession %

Agricultural Labour 14Education: % Day labours 06Illiterate 19 Professionals 03Primary 19 Service-holders 13Up to HSC 46 Businessmen 17Degree or above 16 Housewives 34

Students 09Monthly Family Income: % Unemployed 03Up to Tk. 5000 58 Others 01Tk. 5001-Tk. 10000 27Tk. 10001-Tk. 20001 11Tk. 20001-Tk. 30001 02Tk. 30001 or over 02Average Family Income Tk. 7126

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4. Major Findings

4.1 Electoral Preparations and Environment

Almost around 80 percent of the respondents opined that voters’ list in their areas are more or

less alright. Around 13 percent opined that genuine voters are excluded while fake voters are

included in the voters’ lists of their localities.

The respondents mentioned a number of preconditions. Almost 90 percent respondents

emphasized arms recovery to be the most important thing to do before the election. Beside

this, respondents pointed out a number of initiatives. These are: deployment of army at polling

stations (83.2 percent), neutralization of the administration at all levels (78 percent), proper

application of the electoral rules and regulations (72.1 percent), around 80 percent of the

respondents thought the voters’ lists of their areas were ok while 46 percent opined in favor of

rectification of the voters’ lists.

67.2 percent voters supported deployment of both local and foreign observers. Only 5.0

percent do not know about observation.

67.3 percent thought that the law and order situation of the country has improved during the

term of the caretaker government. 31 percent thought that the situation is more or less the

same or rather worsened.

More than two-thirds (76.5 percent) of the respondents thought that their local administrations

of their areas were more or less neutral. Around 13 percent of the respondents thought that

their local bodies had political influence.

Most of the respondents (91 percent) are optimistic that they can cast their vote without any

fear. Only 6 percent fear that voting would not be possible as there might be intimidation on

Election Day.

In consideration of every aspect around 71.0 percent respondents think fair and neutral

election will be held while 23.0 percent think election will be more or less neutral.

4.2. Voters’ Behavior

83.6 percent of the respondents emphasized honesty to be the most important quality of the

candidates. The other three qualities are; involvement of candidates with the development

activities of their respective localities (76.0 percent), capacity of the candidates to mix with

local people (72.9 percent), academic qualification of the candidates (72.2 percent). Despite

this it was found that one out of every two respondents would consider party identity of the

candidates important to select and vote.

13 percent of the respondents informed that there were women candidates in their

constituencies. Of them 64 percent informed that they would vote for these women candidates

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if they were eligible. The rate of this group is higher among the women respondents (73

percent) than their male counterparts (56.8 percent), which is almost 16 percent higher.

In course of the survey the willingness to vote in this election is high. 82.4 percent informed us

that they will vote in the upcoming election. This rate is assuringly high amongst the women

respondents (80.2 percent).

4.3 Party Popularity

We asked our survey whom they had voted for in the last two elections and who would they vote

for in this one. The results are in table 11a and show the following

Both major parties have a strong core of voters around 33 percent each.

The BNP and the Awami League have benefited equally from the demise of the Jatiyo Party.

The 4-party alliance will secure 10 percent of the vote in 2001 made up mainly of Jamaat and

Jatiyo Party voters

The BNP vote added to the 4-party alliance will push their share to 42 percent.

If this percentage were applied to our 50 constituencies the BNP would win 32 seats.

If these results of mid-September are spread across the country then it is unlikely that the

Awami League will win enough seats to form the next government on their own.

43.1 Voting Patterns

Table 11g shows the likely swing of voters in this election. The important points to note are:

Approximately 73 percent of AL voters will stay loyal to their party.

Approx 68 percent of BNP voters will be loyal. However 16 percent of previous BNP voters are

also willing to vote for the 4 party alliance indicating a loyalty factor of 84 percent.

More than 85 percent of Jamaat voters will vote for Jamaat, BNP or the 4-party alliance.

The BNP has lost 5 percent of their voters to AL but AL has lost 7.7 percent of their vote to

BNP. This suggests that BNP’s strategy of allying with Jamaat has not hurt its share of the

vote.

15 percent of 1996 Awami League voters are still undecided – the highest proportion of voters

amongst the major parties.

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4.3.2 New Voters

Table 11h shows the distribution of new voters.

The pattern shows that 30 percent of new voters will vote for AL.

However 50 percent will vote for either the BNP or the 4-party alliance.

4.3.3 Overall Voting

Although the 4-party alliance is looking strong and the voters are willing to forget past differences

in order to vote tactically it is extremely difficult to predict who will be the largest party in the

parliament. This is because although the BNP/4 party alliance will get the higher vote the BNP are

standing in fewer seats. As the voting stands at the time of our survey it is extremely unlikely that

the AL will have an outright majority.

Appendix I

Table 1Division-wise Distribution of Constituencies

Division Districts Covered

Type of constituency

Marginal Non-marginal Special Total

Rajshahi 9 5 5 - 10Khulna 6 4 3 - 7Barishal 4 3 1 - 4Dhaka 10 6 6 2 14Sylhet 3 3 1 - 4Chittagong 6 4 6 1 11Total 38 25 22 3 50

Table 2Party-wise Distribution of Constituencies

Party won in 1996

Type of constituency

Marginal Non-marginal Special Total

Awami League 11 9 3 23BNP 10 11 - 21Jatiyo Party 2 2 - 4Jamat-e-Islami 1 - - 1Jasad 1 - - 1Total 25 22 3 50

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Table 3Surveyed Constituencies, Type and Winner in 1996

Constituency Division Type Winner in 1996 Constituency Division Type Winner in

1996Panchagar 2 Rajshahi Marginal BNP Netrokona 3 Dhaka Marginal BNPThakurgaon 1 Rajshahi Non-

marginalAL Munshigonj 4 Dhaka Non-

marginalBNP

Dinajpur 3 Rajshahi Marginal BNP Narayangonj 2 Dhaka Marginal AlNilphamary 2 Rajshahi Marginal JP Dhaka 6 Dhaka Non-

marginalAL

Kurigram 2 Rajshahi Non-marginal

JP Dhaka 7 Dhaka Marginal BNP

Naogaon 2 Rajshahi Non-marginal

BNP Dhaka 10 Dhaka Non-marginal

AL

Natore 3 Rajshahi Marginal BNP Dhaka 11 Dhaka Non-marginal

AL

Rajshahi 4 Rajshahi Non-marginal

BNP Gazipur 3 Dhaka Non-marginal

AL

Rajshahi 5 Rajshahi Non-marginal

BNP Rajbari 1 Dhaka Non-marginal

AL

Sirajgonj 6 Rajshahi Marginal AL Faridpur 2 Dhaka Marginal BNPJhenaidah 1 Khulna Non-

marginalBNP Hobigonj 1 Sylhet Non-

marginalAL

Jessore 1 Khulna Non-marginal

AL Shunamgonj 4 Sylhet Marginal BNP

Magura 2 Khulna Non-marginal

AL Sylhet 1 Sylhet Marginal AL

Chuadanga 2 Khulna Marginal BNP Sylhet 4 Sylhet Marginal BNPKhulna 2 Khulna Marginal BNP B. Baria 2 Chittagong Non-

marginalBNP

Khulna 4 Khulna Marginal AL Comilla 2 Chittagong Non-marginal

BNP

Satkhira 4 Khulna Marginal JP Comilla 6 Chittagong Marginal ALBhola 1 Barishal Marginal AL Comilla 7 Chittagong Non-

marginalAL

Jhalokathi 2 Barishal Non-marginal

JP Chandpur 5 Chittagong Marginal AL

Barishal 1 Barishal Marginal AL Laksmipur 4 Chittagong Marginal JasadPirojpur 1 Barishal Marginal JI Noakhali 3 Chittagong Non-

marginalBNP

Tangail 2 Dhaka Non-marginal

AL Chittagong 2 Chittagong Marginal AL

Tangail 6 Dhaka Marginal BNP Chittagong 7 Chittagong Non-marginal

BNP

Mymenshingh 8

Dhaka Marginal AL Chittagong 9 Chittagong Special AL

Kishorgonj 4 Dhaka Marginal AL Chittagong 10 Chittagong Non-marginal

BNP

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Table 5Surveyed Upzillas Under Different Constituencies

Thana Const. Thana Const. Thana Const.Debigonj Panchagar 2 Bhola Sadar Bhola 1 Nagarkanda Faridpur 2Boda Gouranadi

Barishal 1Bishamvarpur Sunamgonj

4Nilphamary sadar

Nilphamary 2 Agailjhara Sunamgonj

Sadar

Dinajpur sadar Dinajpur 3 Jhalkathi Sadar Jhalokathi 2

CompanigonjSylhet 1Thakurgaon

sadarThakurgaon

1 Nalsity Sylhet Sadar

Kurigram sadarKurigram 2

Nazirpur Pirojpur 1 Goainghat Sylhet 4Rajarhat Pirojpur Sadar JaintapurFulbari Gopalpur Tangail 2 Bahubal Hobigonj 1Patnitola

Naogoan 2Bhuapur Nabigonj

Dhamuir hat Nagorpur Tangail 6 B. Baria Sadar B. Baria 2Durgapur Rajshahi 4 Ishorgonj Mymensingh 8 Sarail

Putia Atpara Netrokona 3 AshugonjCharghat Rajshahi 5 Kandua Daudkandi Comilla 2Bagha Tarail Kishorgonj 4 Chandina Comilla 6Singra Natore 3 Karimgonj Barura Comilla 7

Shajadpur Sirajgonj 6Munshigonj Sadar Munshigonj 4 Hazigonj Chandpur 5

Chuhali Gajaria ShaharastiDamurhuda Chuadanga

2Motijheel Dhaka 6 Chatkhil Noakhali 3

Jibonnagar Sabujbag Ramgoti Lakxmipur 4

Shilakupa Jhenaidaha 1 Sutrapur Dhaka 7 Sitakunda Ctg. 2

Sharaha Jessore 1 Kotoali Rangunia Ctg. 7Shalikha Magura 2 Tejgoan Dhaka 10 Kotoali

Ctg. 9Mohammedpur Ramna PanchlaishKhulna Metro Khulna 2 Mirpur Dhaka 11 DoublemuringSonadanga Kaligonj Gazipur 3 Chandgaon Ctg. 10Tarokhada Khulna 4 Araihazar N. Gong 2 Boalkhali

Debahata Satkhira 4Goalanda Ghat Rajbari 1

Kaligonj Rajbari Sadar

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Appendix II

Table 1Comment on the voter lists of your locality

Comments PercentageVoter list is more or less ok 79.6A number of genuine voters are dropped from the list 8.3A good number of ‘ghost’ voters are included in the list 5.3Don’t know 6.8

Table 2In your opinion, what are the pre-conditions for the next election to be free and fair?

Pre-conditions Percentage Rank orderArms recovery 89.8 1Deployment of army in risky areas and polling centers 83.2 2Make the administration non-partisan 78.0 3Proper implementation of electoral codes of conduct 72.1 4Correction of irregularities in the voter lists 45.9 5Withdrawal of the ‘public safety act’ 34.8 6Radio/TV to be free from party influence 34.8 6

Table 3What steps to be taken to observe the next election?

Steps to be taken Percentage

To deploy local observers 17.8To deploy foreign observers 9.4Both local and foreign observers to be deployed

67.2

Others 0.3Don’t know 5.3

Table 4Is there any improvement of law and order situation in your locality after the Caretaker

Government came into power

Condition of law and order situation

Percentage

Better than previous regime 67.3Same as before 24.4Deteriorated than previous regime

6.2

Don’t know 2.1

Table 5What is the role of local administration (like UP, Pouroshova, or District administration) in

your locality?

Role of local administration PercentageNeutral more or less 76.5Influenced by political parties 12.8Influenced by candidates 0.8Influenced by muscle-men 2.7Don’t know 7.2

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Table 6Do you think that you would be able to cast your vote without any fear?

Response PercentageYes, I would be able to cast my vote without any fear 91.1I may not cast my vote, there is a possibility of intimidation

5.5

I would not able to cast my vote, my polling center is highly risky

0.4

Don’t know 3.0

Table 7Overall, in your opinion, how would be the forthcoming election?

Response PercentageI think election would be free and fair 70.8Some occurrence may be happened, but the election would be free in general

22.9

In my opinion the election would not be free and fair 2.9Don’t know 3.4

Table 8In casting vote, who is an ideal candidate in your judgment?

Traits Percentage Rank order

Honesty 83.6 1Role in local development activities

76.0 2

Capacity to mix with common people

72.9 3

Educational background 72.1 4Being active 68.1 5Party identity 50.2 6Being a local person 47.7 7Professional qualification 42.3 8Family tradition and influence 35.8 9Financial capacity 33.4 10Lobbying power 29.8 11Good oratory 29.7 12Others 1.9 13

Table 9aIs there any female candidate(s) in your locality?

Response

Percentage

Yes 12.9No 82.1Don’t know

5.0

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Table 9bWould you cast your vote for her, if there were any female candidate(s) in locality?

ResponsePercentage of

responseMale Female All

If compatible, surely cast vote for her 56.8 73.0 63.7Cast vote with party identity even if she is not compatible

7.7 4.5 6.3

I don’t like women leadership 4.9 2.4 3.8Don’t cast vote even if she is compatible 0.5 - 0.3Others 17.7 10.7 14.7Don’t know 12.3 9.3 11.1

Table 10How much are you willing to vote in the next election?

Willingness to votePercentage of

responseMale Female All

I will cast my vote 84.1 80.2 82.3

I will cast my vote if the situation is normal 14.1 17.4 15.5

I shall cast my vote if I get any sort of facilities 1.3 2.0 1.7I shall not cast my vote 0.4 0.4 0.4I shall cast my vote over pressure from the influential

0.1 - 0.1

Table 11a

For whom did you cast your vote both in 1991 and 1996 general elections? And for whom would you vote in the forthcoming election?

PartyPercentage of responses

Voted in 1991

Voted in 1996

Likely to vote in 2001

Awami League 24.7 33.4 33.0BNP 27.7 31.7 32.3Jatiya Party (E) 7.6 7.7 5.8Jamat-e-Islami 3.5 3.8 0.94-party alliance - - 10.1Left party 0.5 0.4 0.4Others 0.7 0.7 1.9Didn’t vote 12.7 8.8 -Will not vote - - 0.4Was not a voter 20.3 10.9 -Don’t say 2.3 2.6 -Undecided - - 15.2

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Table 11bWhom would you vote for in the next general election?

byGender distribution

PartyPercentage distribution of

genderMale Female All

Awami League 32.8 33.3 33.0BNP 31.9 32.7 32.3Jatiya Party (E) 5.9 5.8 5.8Jammat 0.9 0.9 0.94-party alliance 11.0 8.9 10.1Left party 0.4 0.3 0.4Others 2.3 1.3 1.9Will not vote 0.4 0.4 0.4Undecided 14.3 16.4 15.2

Table 11cWhom would you vote for in the next general election?

byAge distribution

PartyPercentage distribution of age

18-30 yrs.

31-45 yrs.

46-60 yrs.

61 yrs.+

All

Awami League 31.0 34.6 35.4 28.4 33.0BNP 35.1 31.7 27.4 23.0 32.3Jatiya Party (E) 5.8 5.5 5.7 8.7 5.8Jamat-e-Islami 0.5 1.0 1.1 3.8 0.94-party alliance 11.4 9.2 7.5 13.7 10.1Left party 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4Others 1.4 2.0 2.8 2.7 1.9Will not vote 0.3 0.6 0.3 - 0.4Undecided 14.1 15.1 19.1 19.2 15.2

Table 11dWhom would you vote for in the next general election?

byOccupational distribution

Party

Percentage distribution of occupationFarmer/

day labour

Profe-ssional

Service-holder

Business-man

Housewife

Student Un-employed

Others All

Awami League

33.9 28.6 32.2 35.5 32.9 31.7 28.6 31.6 33.0

BNP 34.0 17.0 31.2 29.5 34.1 35.4 32.3 17.5 32.3Jatiya Party (E)

7.9 10.2 3.8 5.8 6.0 3.5 2.3 5.3 5.8

Jamat-e-Islami

1.3 - 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.4 1.5 - 0.9

4-party alliance

7.7 12.9 10.4 11.2 8.5 13.9 16.5 22.8 10.1

Leftparty

0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 - - - 0.4

Others 3.05 4.1 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.0 2.3 5.3 1.9Will not vote

.05 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.4 - - 0.4

Undecided 11.4 24.5 18.8 14.3 15.8 13.7 16.5 17.5 15.2

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Table 11eWhom would you vote for in the next general election?

byUrban and Rural area

PartyPercentage distribution of

areaUrban Rural All

Awami League 33.1 32.8 33.0BNP 32.0 32.7 32.3Jatiya Party (E) 5.9 5.6 5.8Jamat-e-Islami 1.2 0.5 0.94-party alliance 11.0 8.7 10.1Left party 0.6 0.1 0.4Others 2.2 1.4 1.9Will not vote 0.3 0.6 0.4Undecided 13.7 17.7 15.2

Table 11fThose who voted for the same party both in 1991 and 1996 election

byLikely to vote in 2001

Voted for the same party both in 1991

and 1996

Likely to vote in 2001Awami Leagu

e

BNP Jatiya Party (E)

Jammat

4-party allianc

e

Other

Undecided

Awami League 84.8 3.7 1.4 0.1 - 1.3 8.8BNP 3.4 71.8 1.0 - 17.7 1.5 4.6Jatiya Party (E) 10.8 12.9 57.4 0.4 7.2 3.2 8.1Jamat-e-Islami 3.5 24.5 0.7 19.6 49.0 - 2.8

Table 11gThose who voted in 1996 general election

byLikely to vote in 2001

Voted in 1996 Likely to vote in 2001Awami Leagu

e

BNP Jatiya

Party (E)

Jammat

4-party

alliance

Left part

y

Other

Undecided

Awami League 73.0 7.7 2.2 0.1 - 0.2 1.6 15.2BNP 5.3 68.3 1.3 0.1 16.4 - 1.2 7.4Jatiya Party (E) 13.3 16.7 47.3 0.5 8.1 - 4.4 9.7Jamat-e-Islami 5.5 26.5 1.0 16.5 44.0 - 1.0 5.5Left party 13.6 4.5 - - - 63.6 - 18.3Others 13.3 13.3 3.3 - 3.3 - 30.1 36.7

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Table 11hThose who likely to vote in 2001

byNew voters

Likely to vote in 2001 Percentage distribution of new voterAwami League 29.8BNP 31.2Jatiya Party (E) 4.4Jamat-e-Islami 0.24-party alliance 19.2Left Party 0.2Others 1.4Undecided 13.6

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