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People and Organizations Explorations of Human-Centered Design
William B. Rouse
B I C E N T E N N I A L
B I C E N T E N N I A L
WILEY-INTERSCIENCE A John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Publication
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People and Organizations
T H E w t i E Y BICENTENNIAL-KNOWLEDGE FOR GENERATIONS
ach generation has its unique needs and aspirations. When Charles Wiley first opened his small printing shop in lower Manhattan in 1807, it was a generation of boundless potential searching for an identity. And we were there, helping to define a new American literary tradition. Over half a century later, in the midst of the Second Industrial Revolution, it was a generation focused on building the future. Once again, we were there, supplying the critical scientific, technical, and engineering knowledge that helped frame the world. Throughout the 20th Century, and into the new millennium, nations began to reach out beyond their own borders and a new international community was born. Wiley was there, expanding its operations around the world to enable a global exchange of ideas, opinions, and know-how.
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For 200 years, Wiley has been an integral part of each generation’s journey, enabling the flow of information and understanding necessary to meet their needs and fulfill their aspirations. Today, bold new technologies are changing the way we live and learn. Wiley will be there, providing you the must-have knowledge you need to imagine new worlds, new possibilities, and new opportunities.
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WILLIAM J. PESCE PETER BOOTH WlLEV PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OmCER CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD
People and Organizations Explorations of Human-Centered Design
William B. Rouse
B I C E N T E N N I A L
B I C E N T E N N I A L
WILEY-INTERSCIENCE A John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Publication
Copyright 0 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Rouse, William B. People and organizations : explorations of human-centered design / by William B. Rouse
Includes bibliographical references and index. p. cm.
ISBN 978-0-470-09904-9 (cloth) 1. Human engineering. I. Title.
TA166.R68 2007 620.8'2- dc22 2007006003
Printed in the United States of America.
1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
This book is dedicated to the wealth of co-authors, collaborators, customers, and compatriots who have both enabled the journey chronicled here and contributed to the insights reported.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface
The Author
1 The Path of Serendipity
Early Serendipity
Role of Serendipity
Human-Centered Design
Design Objectives
Design Framework
Design for Success
Overview of Book
Human Abilities
Human Limitations
Supporting Humans
Levels of Understanding
Serendipity Revisited
References
2 Estimation, Mental Models, and Teams
Predictor Displays for Air Traffic
Sources of Suboptimal Prediction
Atmospheric Physics
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Stochastic Estimation Tasks
Mental Models
Fundamental Limits
Groups and Teams
Group Decision Making
Aegis Team Training
Performing Arts Teams
Conclusions
References
3 Processes, Networks, and Demands
Introduction
Processes
Queueing Processes
Causes of Waiting
Staffing Information Desks
Selecting Acquisition Sources
Allocating Resources Across Processes
Networks
Impact of Technology
Data Collection
Case Studies
Libraries as Networks
Summary
Forecasting Demands
Conclusions
References
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4 Tasks, Errors, and Automation
Introduction
Multi-Tasking Decision Making
Adaptive Aiding
Detecting Attention Allocation
Queueing Model of Multi-Task Performance
Optimal Control Model of Multi-Task Performance
Human-Computer Interaction in Dynamic Systems
Adaptive Aiding Revisited
Framework for Design
Human Error
Studies of Human Error
Error Tolerant Systems
Intelligent Interfaces
Electronic Checklists
Pilot’s Associate
Conclusions
References
5 Failures, Detection, and Diagnosis
Introduction
Detection and Diagnosis Performance
Context-Free Simulations
Network Size, Pacing, Aiding, and Training
Feedback and Redundancy
Complexity
Context-Specific Simulation
Cognitive Style
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Measures of Performance
Summary of Experiments
Dynamic Process Plants
Large-Scale Dynamic Networks
Human Abilities, Limitations, and Inclinations
Models of Detection and Diagnosis
Initial Fuzzy Set Model
Initial Rule-Based Model
Fuzzy Rule-Based Model
Rule-Based Model for Dynamic Processes
Modeling Failure Detection
Summary of Models
Training and Aiding
Training
Aiding
Summary
Conclusions
References
6 Displays, Controls, Aiding, and Training
Introduction
Systems Engineering
Human and Organizational Aspects
CostBenefit Analysis
Modeling Human Behavior and Performance
Modeling Mental Workload
System Design
HumadMachhe Interaction
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Displays and Controls
Design of Aiding
Design of Training
Training vs. Aiding Tradeoffs
Design Evaluation
Process Control and Manufacturing
Conclusions
References
7 Information, Knowledge, and Decision Making
Introduction
Information and Knowledge
R&D Decision Making
Design Decision Making
Environment of Design
Design Challenges
Design Methods and Tools
Implications for Support
Management Decision Making
Strategic Management Tools
Online Management Services
Information and Knowledge Support
Conclusions
References
8 Products, Systems, and Services
Introduction
Market and Product Models
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Multi-Attribute Models
Utility Theory Models
Quality Function Deployment
Summary
Product Planning Advisor
Using the Product Planning Advisor
Usage Guidelines
Problem Representation
Interpreting Results
Typical Users of PPA
Case Stories
Conclusion
Facilitating Product Planning
Objections and Responses
Elements of Facilitation
Summary
Conclusions
References
9 Invention, Innovation, and Options
Introduction
Invention vs. Innovation
Technology and Innovation
Overview
Purpose of R&D
Multi-Stage Decision Processes
Discounted Cash Flow
Technology Options
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Option Pricing Models
Framing Options
Estimating Input Data
Calculating Option Values
Performing Sensitivity Analyses
Example Calculations
Technology Investment Advisor
Case Stories
Limitations and Extensions
Value Streams and Networks
R&D World
Value-Centered R&D
Characterizing Value
Assessing Value
Managing Value
Organizing for Value
Summary
Technology Adoption
Conclusions
References
10 Challenges, Situations, and Change
Introduction
Essential Challenges
Situations and Stories
Common Business Situations
Situation Assessment Advisor
Understanding Change
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Organizational Delusions
Need-Beliefs-Perceptions
Summary
Organizational Simulation
Architecture of Organizational Simulation
Implications for Strategic Management
Applications of Organizational Simulation
Conclusions
References
11 Value, Work, and Transformation
Introduction
Defining Transformation
Role of Theory
Context of Transformation
Modeling the Enterprise
A Theory of Enterprise Transformation
Value Deficiencies Drive Transformation
Work Processes Enable Transformation
Allocation of Attention and Resources
Management Decision Making
Social Networks
Transformation Processes
Summary of Theory
Ends, Means and Scope of Transformation
Value Deficiencies Drive Transformation
Work Processes Enable Transformation
Illustrations of Transformation
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Transportation
Computing
Contemporary Illustrations
Conclusions
Implications for Research
Transformation Methods and Tools
Emerging Enterprise Technologies
Organizational Simulation
Investment Valuation
Organizational Culture and Change
Best Practices Research
Summary
Experiences from Practice
Search Technology
Georgia Tech
Transforming Decision Making
Conclusions
References
12 People, Organizations, and Serendipity
Introduction
Human-Centered Design
Role of Serendipity
Intersecting Perspectives
Crossroads of Serendipity
Current Crossroads
The Legacy of Bologna
Prospects for Academia
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Implications for a Flat World
References
Index
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PREFACE
Planning is a process of placing yourself in the path of serendipity. Better yet if you can be at the crossroads of serendipity. Prepared with a clear set of intentions and at least notional plans, you’ll recognize serendipity when it happens. The process will be one of “smart” luck rather than “dumb” luck. As a result, you’ll pursue your plans and achieve success in ways not previously imagined.
This assertion conflicts with the idea that unrelenting execution of well-honed plans is the key to success. While that sometimes works, success often surprises us in both its nature and timing. If we are primed to notice such twists of events, we can intelligently and aggressively take advantage of serendipity. We might not “make the times,” but we can take advantage of them.
This book reports on a journey laced with serendipity, a journey to understand how people and organizations function, as well as devise means for supporting them to function better. This journey has been a mixture of inching forward, striding occasionally and, in several situations, leaping to new insights and ideas enabled by serendipity.
This process has involved seeing distinctions and connections across domains, disciplines, and cultures. The domains, to name a few, have included aerospace, electronics, software, and pharmaceuticals on the high- tech side, and retail, education, and non-profits on the soft-tech side. The disciplines have ranged from engineering and computing, to management and behavioral and social sciences, to architecture, humanities, and the arts. Cultures have included work in more than 30 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
The distinctions and connections of interest involve people and organizations. Work with operations and maintenance personnel, researchers and designers, and senior executives in industry, government, academia, and the non-profit sectors has been the source of the many
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insights and ideas discussed in this book. I acknowledge many of these people throughout the book, indicating their contributions to the journey.
Serendipity emerges from differing points of view, different lenses perhaps in terms of concepts, principles, methods, tools and, very importantly, experiences. Different disciplines, for instance, see phenomena at varying levels of aggregation and abstraction, sometimes seeing their view as the “correct” view. In the conflict between competing strong assertions, unexpected hybrids can emerge as the source of new insights and ideas.
Such hybrid perspectives can be termed transdisciplinary in that they are not simply aggregations of multiple disciplinary (or multi-disciplinary) perspectives, but instead often represent an integrating framework populated with knowledge from a range of disciplines. My experience is that transdisciplinary perspectives can be invaluable in addressing complex systems problems such as healthcare, security, and the environment. This book addresses a wide range of human and organizational issues that are central to complex systems such as these.
I feel very fortunate to have been able to devote 40 years to the research discussed in this book. Many people have been my mentors, teachers, guides, and colleagues in this work. I am indebted to them and will introduce many of them throughout this book. I am also pleased to acknowledge the help of my colleague Kristi Kirkland, who served as managing editor for this book and several of my earlier books.
Atlanta, Georgia William B. Rouse January 2007
THE AUTHOR
Bill Rouse is the Executive Director of the Tennenbaum Institute at the Georgia Institute of Technology. This university-wide center pursues a multi-disciplinary portfolio of initiatives focused on research and education to provide knowledge and skills that enable fundamental change of complex organizational systems. He is also a professor in the College of Computing and School of Industrial and Systems Engineering. His earlier positions include Chair of the School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, CEO of two innovative software companies - Enterprise Support Systems and Search Technology - and faculty positions at Georgia Tech, University of Illinois, Delft University of Technology, and Tufts University.
Rouse has almost four decades of experience in research, education, engineering, management, and marketing. His expertise includes individual and organizational decision making and problem solving, as well as design of organizations and information systems. In these areas, he has consulted with more than one hundred large and small enterprises in the private, public, and non-profit sectors, where he has worked with several thousand executives and senior managers.
Rouse has written hundreds of articles and book chapters, and has authored many books, including most recently Essential Challenges of Strategic Management (Wiley, 200 1 ) and the award-winning Don 't Jump to Solutions (Jossey-Bass, 1998). He is editor of Enterprise Transformation: Understanding and Enabling Fundamental Change (Wiley, 2006), co-editor of Organizational Simulation: From Modeling and Simulation to Games and Entertainment (Wiley, 2005), co-editor of the best-selling Handbook of Systems Engineering and Management (Wiley, 1999), and editor of the eight-volume series HumadTechnology Interaction in Complex Systems (Elsevier). Among many advisory roles, he has served as Chair of the Committee on Human Factors of the National Research Council, a member of the U.S. Air Force Scientific Advisory
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Board, and a member of the DoD Senior Advisory Group on Modeling and Simulation.
Rouse is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, as well as a fellow of four professional societies -- Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science, and the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. He has received the Joseph Wohl Outstanding Career Award and the Norbert Wiener Award from the IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society; a Centennial Medal and a Third Millennium Medal from IEEE; the Best Article Award from INCOSE, and the 0. Hugo Schuck Award from the American Automation Control Council. He is listed in Who's Who in America, Who's Who in Engineering, and other biographical literature, and has been featured in publications such as Manager's Edge, Vision, Book-Talk, The Futurist, Competitive Edge, Design News, Quality & Excellence, IIE Solutions, Industrial Engineer, and Engineering Enterprise.
Rouse received his B.S. from the University of Rhode Island, and his S.M. and Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Chapter 1
THE PATH OF SERENDIPITY
This book is about people who operate, maintain, design, research, and manage complex systems, ranging from air traffic control systems, process control plants and manufacturing facilities to industrial enterprises, government agencies and universities. The focus is on the nature of the work these types of people perform, as well as the human abilities and limitations that usually enable and sometimes hinder their work. In particular, this book addresses how to best enhance abilities and overcome limitations, as well as foster acceptance of the means to these ends.
This book is also about serendipity and how unforeseen connections and distinctions enable innovative approaches to problems as well as solution concepts. The serendipitous connections and distinctions discussed here stem from perspectives that cut across domains and disciplines, and sometimes cultures. This enables, for example, using understanding of the operations of library networks to develop concepts for maintaining aircraft engines. The key, by the way, is the networked nature of relationships among system elements in both domains.
The possibility of serendipity can be enhanced by a willingness to ask questions such as, “How is a NASCAR pit crew like a Waffle House cooking and serving team?” Pursuit of answers to these types of questions is facilitated by adopting a transdisciplinary perspective that borrows from behavioral and social science, management, engineering, computing and so on to create cross-cutting frameworks for understanding questions and formulating answers.
A wealth of ideas about people and organizations are discussed in this book. These ideas appear, at least in retrospect, to follow a fairly orderly path from individuals to teams to organizations to enterprises. Yet, as illustrated by the many stories and vignettes in the chapters that follow, the path is only smooth when looking backward. Looking forward, the ideas emerged from serendipitous insights and matured independently at first, only coming together as a coherent whole more recently.
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EARLY SERENDIPITY
The picture in Figure 1 symbolizes this process. While the circle in the center of this picture may appear to be a UFO landing site, it is actually a driver-training track. When I was 14 years old, I eagerly looked forward to obtaining my driver training permit when I turned 15. In preparation, I bought a 1952 Plymouth for $35. I wanted to teach myself the basics of driving before I hit that all-important 15" birthday.
There was a field behind our house, a bit of pasture owned by Mrs. Cook, who lived across the street. I asked her if I could drive my car in this field. She agreed and, over the next few months, the track shown in the picture emerged. I achieved my goal of being ready for my permit, although my experience was limited to first and second gears, as I could never get going fast enough to get into third.
Figure 1. One Path of Serendipity
The Path of Serendipity 3
While all this was happening, an aerial survey was being taken of our town (Portsmouth, RI) in preparation for a new highway. The survey captured my track and my aunt, Nancy Lantz, a newspaper reporter, got me a copy of the picture. Only then did I fully realize the pattern I had created. Prior to that recognition, I simply viewed the field as the place I practiced driving.
The pattern of the track helped me to understand the significance my first car played in my earliest research ventures - this picture now hangs prominently in my office to remind me. For instance, I was able to figure out how to drive downtown without going on any public roads, since 14 year olds weren’t supposed to be driving. It was a very bumpy route through fields and along abandoned streetcar tracks.
All the bumping resulted in many needed repairs. I accomplished some of these repairs using parts from my Erector Set because I could not afford to buy spare parts. I learned a lot from that 1952 Plymouth because it kept on breaking. Within six months, a 1949 Chevrolet, also purchased for $35, replaced the Plymouth, and my lessons continued. This was serendipity at its best, and certainly was one of the reasons I later pursued engineering. More recently, these experiences have contributed to the great fun we are having studying the automobile industry, as discussed in Chapter 11.
ROLE OF SERENDIPITY
This research discussed in the following chapters clearly illustrates the substantial role serendipity has played in this work. This was not fully apparent to me until I began to study strategy and planning more formally in the 1980s, continuing into the 1990s. In Best Laid Plans (1994), and later Don’t Jump to Solutions (1998), I concluded that planning is a process of placing yourself in the path of serendipity.
The basis of this conclusion was my own experiences as well as numerous discussions with very successful people and organizations. Success seldom emerges exactly as planned. I have often heard that technologies were most successful in ways other than expected, often in markets that were not anticipated. The stories of Post-Its and Super Glue are familiar examples. There are countless stories such as these (Burke, 1996; Evans, 2004).
This conclusion has frequently been countered with questions such as, “Why bother to plan at all if it’s all serendipity?” The answer is that plans
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are needed to be able to recognize serendipity - to assure “smart” luck rather than having to accept “dumb” luck. Prepared with a clear set of intentions and at least notional plans, you’ll recognize serendipity when it happens. As a result, you’ll pursue your plans and achieve success in ways not previously imagined.
The people I have talked with about this phenomenon were usually pursuing clear goals with great energy when it struck them that there was a better way of achieving success, typically with slightly altered goals and refined plans. Perhaps the unfortunate fact that the glue will not permanently stick is actually a benefit - hence, Post-Its. Perhaps the inopportune fact that the gunk happens to create an almost unbreakable bond is actually a benefit - hence, Super Glue.
This book is focused much more on research to understand people and organizations than it is about product innovations, although see Chapters 6, 8, and 9. Serendipity in research involves recognizing new phenomena, seeing old phenomena in new ways, and identifying new concepts, principles, methods, and tools for addressing phenomena. In essence, serendipity in research involves the unexpected emergence of new ways of thinking about something.
There are many sources of serendipity and ways to place yourself in the path of serendipity. One way is to work across domains. My domain experiences range from the aerospace and electronics industries, to consumer products and retailing companies, to government agencies and non-profit organizations. The contrasts across this range of domains have yielded many serendipitous insights. For example, the heterogeneity of the constituencies in a domain - the stakeholders -- seems to strongly impact decision-making processes and how these processes can best be supported.
Another way to foster serendipity is working across disciplines. By disciplines, I mean engineering, computing, management, behavioral and social sciences, law, medicine, architecture, humanities, arts, and so on. Different disciplines often bring very different perspectives to problem solving and decision making, both in terms of formulation and solution. Understanding these differences can lead to new, transdisciplinary formulations. For instance, our ongoing research on modeling work and workflow has benefited from the contrasting approaches of management, engineering, computing, and architecture, and the ways they address business processes and flows of physical objects, information, and people, respectively.
A third way to foster serendipity is to cross cultures. The research discussed in this book has been pursued in the contexts of more than 30
The Path of Serendipity 5
countries, usually with colleagues from these countries. The contrasts between Western and Eastern cultures, as well as the contrasts between developed and developing countries, have provided many useful insights. For example, it seems that the role of the family in a culture affects entrepreneurship in particular and risk taking in general. Thus, in one initiative, we found that simply providing venture capital was not sufficient to overcome risk averse attitudes - support was needed to help would-be entrepreneurs to better understand and manage risks.
Most of the serendipitous insights discussed in this book emerged from crossing domains (e.g., libraries and electronics), disciplines (e.g., technology and arts), and cultures (e.g., developed and developing countries). These “border crossings” placed us in the path of serendipity and new insights were found on this path. An overarching theme of this book is the value of such border crossings.
HUMAN-CENTERED DESIGN
The primary theme of this book is human-centered design (Rouse, 1991, 2001). Human-centered design is a process of assuring that the concerns, values, and perceptions of all stakeholders in a design effort are considered and balanced. Human-centered design can be contrasted with user- centered design (Billings, 1996; Booher, 2003; Card, Moran & Newell, 1983; Norman & Draper, 1986). The user is a very important stakeholder in design, often the primary stakeholder. However, the success of a product or service is usually strongly influenced by other players in the process of design, development, fielding, and ongoing use of products and services. Human-centered design is concerned with the full range of stakeholders.
This broad view of human-centered design emerged for me in the late 1980s as our research on intelligent interfaces for aircraft pilots (see Chapter 4) matured and we pursued plans for integrating this concept into production aircraft. Our intelligent interface concept was clearly pilot centered. However, we soon discovered that “pilots may fly ‘em, but they don’t build ‘em or buy ‘em.” We needed to pay much more attention to the aircraft manufacturers, the airlines, and various regulatory bodies if we wanted to get our idea on airplanes. This led us to identify and understand the various stakeholders who affect the design, development, manufacture, operation, and regulation of airplanes and their operations.
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Design Objectives
There are three primary objectives within human-centered design. These objectives should drive much of designers' thinking, particularly in the earlier stages of design. Many discussions in later chapters illustrate the substantial impact of focusing on these three objectives.
The first objective of human-centered design is that it should enhance human abilities. This dictates that humans' abilities in the roles of interest be identified, understood, and cultivated. For example, people tend to have excellent pattern recognition abilities. Design should take advantage of these abilities, for instance, by using displays of information that enable users to respond on a pattern recognition basis rather than requiring more analytical evaluation of the information.
The second objective is that human-centered design should help overcome human limitations. This requires that limitations be identified and appropriate compensatory mechanisms be devised. A good illustration of a human limitation is the proclivity to make errors. Humans are fairly flexible information processors -- an important ability -- but this flexibility can lead to "innovations" that are erroneous in the sense that undesirable consequences are likely to occur.
One way of dealing with this problem is to eliminate innovations, perhaps via interlocks and rigid procedures. However, this is akin to throwing out the baby with the bath water. Instead, mechanisms are needed to compensate for undesirable consequences without precluding innovations. Such mechanisms represent a human-centered approach to overcoming the human limitation of occasional erroneous performance.
The third objective of human-centered design is that it should foster human acceptance. This dictates that stakeholders' preferences and concerns be explicitly considered in the design process. While users are certainly key stakeholders, there are other people who are central to the process of designing, developing, and operating a system. For example, purchasers or customers are important stakeholders who often are not users. The interests of these stakeholders also have to be considered to foster acceptance by all the humans involved.
Design Framework
We soon found that human-centered thinking could be applied in a wide range of domains. The process was formalized in terms of the framework
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shown in Figure 2 involving four phases and specific issues, methods, and tools (Rouse, 1991, 2001). These phases support the above design objectives by first focusing on the full range of humans involved in the success of the solution being designed, and then emphasizing how abilities can be enhanced, limitations overcome, and acceptance fostered.
The Naturalist Phase involves understanding the domains and tasks of stakeholders from the perspective of individuals, the organization, and the environment. This understanding not only includes stakeholders’ activities, but also prevalent values and attitudes relative to productivity, technology, and change in general.
The Marketing Phase - or market research phase - builds upon the understanding of the domains and tasks of current and potential stakeholders to conceptualize alternative products or services to support these people. Product or service concepts can be used for initial marketing to determine whether or not people perceive a product or service concept as solving an important problem, solving it in an acceptable way, and solving it at a reasonable cost.
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Figure 2. Framework for Human-Centered Design
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The Engineering Phase addresses tradeoffs between desired conceptual functionality and technological reality. As indicated in Figure 2, technology development will usually have been pursued prior to and in parallel with the Naturalist and Marketing Phases. This will have at least partially assured that the concepts shown to stakeholders were not technologically or economically ridiculous. However, one now must be very specific about how desired functionality is to be provided, what performance is possible, and the time and dollars necessary to provide it.
As the Sales and Service Phase begins, the product or service should have successfully been developed and evaluated, that is, proven to be a “verified” solution. The focus is now on the extent to which it solves the targeted problem (i.e., is a valid solution), solves it an acceptable way, and does so at reasonable cost (i.e., is a viable solution). It is also at this point that one assures that implementation conditions are consistent with the assumptions underlying the design basis of the product or service.
It is important to indicate the role of technology in the human-centered design process. As depicted in Figure 2, technology is pursued in parallel with the four phases of the design process. In fact, technology feasibility, development, and refinement usually consume the lion’s share of the resources in a product or service design effort. However, technology should not drive the design process. The aforementioned human-centered design objectives should drive the process and technology should support these objectives.
Design for Success
As the human-centered design methodology matured and was applied in a wide range of domains (see Chapter S ) , we conducted numerous workshops. The workshop notes evolved into a book manuscript that was to be titled “Human-Centered Design.” Upon concluding a workshop at NASA where this material was used, several participants approached me and said that they thought the tentative book title was a poor choice. Further, they argued that the human-centered methodology could be used to design virtually anything, as all products and services have stakeholders, even those products that have no real “users” in the sense of anyone interacting with them. They suggested that the book be titled “Design for Success.” When I returned from this trip, I called my editor at John Wiley and he readily agreed that this new title would be much more descriptive - and catchy. In this way, a serendipitous exchange in the waning moments