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03/06/2015 1 Pensions Conference 2015 24 26 June Hilton Hotel, Glasgow © QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 2 An ALM Approach to DC Savings Brnic Van Wyk QSuper, Brisbane, Australia 24 June 2015

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Page 1: Pensions Conference 2015 - Actuaries

03/06/2015

1

Pensions Conference 2015

24 – 26 June

Hilton Hotel, Glasgow

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 2

An ALM Approach to DC Savings

Brnic Van Wyk

QSuper, Brisbane, Australia

24 June 2015

Page 2: Pensions Conference 2015 - Actuaries

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 3

Important information

This information is provided by the fund administrator, QSuper Limited (ABN 50 125 248 286 AFSL 334546) which is ultimately owned by the QSuper Board (ABN 32 125 059 006) as trustee for the QSuper Fund (ABN 60 905 115 063). Unless otherwise stated, all products are issued by the QSuper Board as trustee for the QSuper Fund. Where the term ‘QSuper’ is used it represents the QSuper Board, the QSuper Fund or QSuper Limited (as applicable), unless the context indicates otherwise.

This information has been prepared for general purposes only without taking into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs and should not be relied on as legal or taxation advice, nor does it take the place of such advice. Any statements of law or proposals are based on our interpretation of the law or proposals as at the time of preparation.

Consider whether the product is appropriate for you and read the PDS before making a decision. You can obtain the PDS from qsuper.qld.gov.au, or we can email you a copy at the end of this seminar.

The QSuper Board owns the copyright in this information (or has a licence to use the copyright where it is owned by another party). You may reproduce this information for personal, non-commercial use only. You may not distribute or transmit this information to any other person or otherwise use this information without obtaining the QSuper Board’s prior written consent.

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015. All rights reserved.

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 4

Background

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 5

Australia

Three pillars:

1. Means-tested Age Pension from age 65

• Moving to 67 and then maybe 70

2. Compulsory occupational defined contribution system

• Mandatory employer contributions (currently 9.5% - to go to 12%)

3. Voluntary employer and member contributions

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 6

Australia

• Less than 200 large industry and retail funds

• Small number of large public sector funds

• Corporate funds are limited

• Self managed superannuation funds (maximum 4 members)

Benefits

• Mandatory preservation until age 55 (moving to 60)

• Tax-free cash lump sum at retirement (if moved to a pension account)

• No lifetime annuity market – account based withdrawals (no maximum)

Page 4: Pensions Conference 2015 - Actuaries

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 7

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Good

• Compulsory contributions for most

• Voluntary tax advantaged contributions

• Means tested social security

Bad

• Some systemic inefficiencies – multiple funds, choice of fund

• Undiversified investment risk – Equity and peer risk dominate

Ugly

• Little formal annuitisation

• Gap between age for lump sum and social security

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 8

QSuper

• Fund for current and former employees of the Queensland public service and

their families (two-thirds Health and Education)

• 540,000 members (55,000 DB; 250,000 inactive; 34,000 pension)

• Closed DB section ~ $25billion

• Default DC with 8 cohorts/investment strategies

• Investment Choice DC with 8 investment options

• Member direct investment platform

• Soft compelled 17.75% contribution rate (5% member)

• 90% of DC members are in the default – QSuper Lifetime

~$60billion

Page 5: Pensions Conference 2015 - Actuaries

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 9

The Evolution of Default DC

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 10

1980s 1990s

2000s 2010s 2020s

First super revolution

Build assets Deliver outcomes

Second super revolution

Value and member outcomes are key drivers for change

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 11

Evolution of Default DC – Australia

1st Gen

Not for Profit

Default

“Balanced”

Defensive

Growth

SAA

Retail

SMSF

Choice Sector Options

Financial Planner

Advised

Accountant Advised,

Property Heavy

Today Tomorrow

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 12

Evolution of Default DC – Lifecycle and Target Date Funds

2nd Gen

Age 1st Gen

Default

<40

40 - 50

50 - 58

>58

Today Tomorrow

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 13

Evolution of Default DC – QSuper Lifetime

3rd Gen

Account Balance

2nd Gen

Age 1st Gen

Default

<40 $0 +

40 - 50

<$50k

$50k +

50 - 58

<$100k

$100k - $250k

$250k +

>58 <$300k

$300k +

Today Tomorrow

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 14

The Evolution of Default DC – The Future?

3rd Gen

Account Balance

2nd Gen

Age 1st Gen

Default

<40 $0 +

40 - 50 <$50k

$50k +

50 - 58

<$100k

$100k - $250k

$250k +

>58 <$300k

$300k +

Today

…. Gen 4th Gen

Jane

Sam

John

John Mick

Tomorrow

How will we bridge this gap?

‘X’ Gen

Personal Financial

Plan

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 15

The Future of Default DC

…. Gen 4th Gen

Jane

Sam

John

Mick

Automated but

member engaged

- E.g. Merton,

Financial Engines

Default

“Give me 5 minutes”

- Trustee still guides

- Small advice

conversations

Tomorrow Today

‘X’ Gen

Ideal Personal Financial Plan

Full wealth picture in

mass financial planning

using:

- Wealth aggregator

tools

- Default income

streams

- Long life insurance

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 16

“When” not “if”

• In 10 years time, would we ignore what we know about your members?

• Funds will become advice engines; even to default members

• This will invert current business plans

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 17

The GFC changed everything

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 18

Absolute return objective

Rolling 5 Year Returns

Balanced Option Vs CPI + 4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Jun-0

4

Dec-0

4

Jun-0

5

Dec-0

5

Jun-0

6

Dec-0

6

Jun-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jun-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jun-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jun-1

0

Balanced Option

CPI + 4% pa

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 19

Peer relative return objective

Rolling 3 Year Returns

Balanced Option Vs SR50 Median

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jun-0

2

Dec-0

2

Jun-0

3

Dec-0

3

Jun-0

4

Dec-0

4

Jun-0

5

Dec-0

5

Jun-0

6

Dec-0

6

Jun-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jun-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jun-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jun-1

0

Balanced Option

SR50 Median

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 20

Actual member outcomes

Future Values of Members Investing for 20 Years

Balanced Option Real Return (17.75% cont) Vs 4% pa

$392,000

Feb 88

$530,000

Oct 87

$293,000

Jan 83

$412,000

Dec 80 $487,000

Apr 03

$610,000

Apr 02

$668,000

May 99

$286,000

Oct 74

$555,000

Jan 73

$598,000

Nov 07

$404,000

Mar 09

$439,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Jun

-70

Jun

-72

Jun

-74

Jun

-76

Jun

-78

Jun

-80

Jun

-82

Jun

-84

Jun

-86

Jun

-88

Jun

-90

Jun

-92

Jun

-94

Jun

-96

Jun

-98

Jun

-00

Jun

-02

Jun

-04

Jun

-06

Jun

-08

Jun

-10

20 Year Period End Date

Balanced Option

4% pa

Assumptions

- Initial investment of median 40 y.o. member balance

- Monthly contributions of 17.75% of median 40 y.o. salary

- Investment returns based on a proxy Balanced return to June 1991

- Investment returns based on Balanced unit price grow th from July 1991 to June

2010

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 21

Sequence of returns matters

Source: New York Times 01/02/11:

“In Investing, It’s When You Start and When You Finish”

• Expectations are often >7% (green)

• Rare for periods 20 years +

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 22

A rationale for change

Who sets investment strategy and bears investment risk ?

1. Defined Benefit members:

• employer sponsor sets strategy and bears risk

2. Accumulation members:

• Choice: members set strategy and bear risk

• Default: Trustee sets strategy; members bear risk

3. Pension members:

• Choice: member sets strategy and bears risk

• Default: Trustee sets strategy; members bear risk

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 23

GFC assessment

Post GFC, QSuper re-evaluated the environment:

• Lower GDP (growth) and inflation expectations, lower return environment

• Balance of risks changed – need for ‘new tools’

Strategy changes implemented for a “better one-size-fits-all” default:

• Removal of peer objective

• Move towards “risk balanced”

• Expansion of non-market cap equity

• Restatement of investment objectives

• Structural AE/IE adjustment

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 24

The path QSuper is following

Goal: exercise fiduciary authority to accumulate assets and transition to

retirement income across member lifecycle.

Eventual aspiration is to set strategy for each individual, but we will begin by . . .

• Segmenting default Accumulation members into meaningful cohorts

• Developing investment strategy for each cohort using asset-liability management (ALM) principles

• Managing strategies dynamically as cohorts and risks change

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 25

Monitoring Outcomes

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 26

Monitoring retirement balances

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

Jun

2006

Dec 2

006

Jun

2007

Dec 2

007

Jun

2008

Dec 2

008

Jun

2009

Dec 2

009

Jun

2010

Dec 2

010

Jun

2011

Dec 2

011

Jun

2012

Dec 2

012

Jun

2013

Dec 2

013

Balance at Retirement$420,000 Starting Balance

Balance

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 27

Monitoring retirement income

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

Jun

2006

Dec 2

006

Jun

2007

Dec 2

007

Jun

2008

Dec 2

008

Jun

2009

Dec 2

009

Jun

2010

Dec 2

010

Jun

2011

Dec 2

011

Jun

2012

Dec 2

012

Jun

2013

Dec 2

013

Retirement Income$420,000 Starting Balance

Total Income

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 28

Monitoring retirement outcomes

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 29

Data analysis and cohorting members

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 30

Segmenting cohorts of default members

Use age as a starting point. Age is a good proxy for:

• Investment horizons

• Member risk tolerance around adequacy vs. certainty

But it is imperative to also include other factors to determine funded status:

• Account balance, salary, contribution rate

• Variable retirement dates (later)

Make assumptions regarding unknown data

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 31

Data analysis – behaviours in retirement

• 15% cash withdrawals at retirement

• Retirement at age 63

• Transfer to pension account at age 64

• Preference for phased withdrawals

from accumulation accounts

• Actual withdrawals plus estimate Age

Pension roughly equal annual ASFA

Comfortable income level of $40,000

Cash Withdrawals of Default Members

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

55 60 65 70 75 80

Age at Transaction

Perc

ent

of

Bala

nce W

ithdra

wn Cohort 1 Cohort 2 Cohort 3

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 32

Financial planner interviews

• Based on interviews with 16,389 members since 1996 (for households)

• Majority of members own their own home

• Most members have material assets outside of super in addition to that

• Average desired retirement age is 62

1m and

greater

500k to

1m

300k to

500k

100k to

300k

less than

100k

Count 321 2,450 1,675 2,851 881

Average 62 61 62 63 63

Desired Retirement Age

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 33

Desired income levels not linear to account balance

Total

Superannuation

Assets

Assets - Liabilities

(not incl Super and

House)

Desired Income

Now

Desired

Income in

Retirement

HomeBank

AccountsShares Term Deposits

Count 290 290 43 43 279 265 165 78

Average 1,264,142$ 536,778$ 48,609$ 41,605$ 678,962$ 86,170$ 139,495$ 138,747$

Median 1,154,198$ 356,682$ 43,225$ 44,000$ 600,000$ 38,000$ 50,000$ 98,500$

Count 2503 2503 230 230 2398 2170 1141 565

Average 674,363$ 333,306$ 41,270$ 34,864$ 553,330$ 54,986$ 70,606$ 83,536$

Median 647,502$ 223,337$ 38,980$ 36,000$ 500,000$ 20,000$ 18,000$ 48,000$

Count 2160 2160 172 172 2026 1892 875 496

Average 393,641$ 271,520$ 40,850$ 31,119$ 528,007$ 47,655$ 48,111$ 77,742$

Median 390,825$ 175,000$ 39,000$ 31,500$ 480,000$ 16,175$ 14,300$ 41,793$

Count 2741 2741 176 176 2466 2369 970 566

Average 196,732$ 241,526$ 34,511$ 25,835$ 487,286$ 43,323$ 42,869$ 79,451$

Median 195,159$ 157,270$ 34,763$ 30,000$ 445,000$ 13,500$ 10,680$ 34,310$

Count 952 952 42 42 768 809 271 168

Average 55,191$ 263,073$ 40,052$ 24,795$ 477,879$ 61,858$ 46,589$ 92,592$

Median 58,307$ 159,522$ 35,988$ 30,000$ 420,000$ 11,470$ 10,000$ 40,000$

Super Assets: > 1m (N = 290)

Super Assets: 500k - 1m (N = 2503)

NO RENTAL PROPERTY

Super Assets: 300k - 500k (N = 2160)

Super Assets: 100k - 300k (N = 2741)

Super Assets: < 100k (N = 952)

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 34

Establish homogeneous cohorts with reasonably narrow distributions

Sample CART analysis:

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 35

Cohorting the total membership

• Three phases to implementation

• Administration considerations

• Portfolio size limitations

• Member communication and engagement strategies

• CART analysis

• Basic lifecycle principles

• Subjective and qualitative overlay

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 36

Membership data and cohort structure

Cohort No# MembersTotal FUMMed Age

Med Balance

30 40 50 60 70 80

$100,000 $100,000

$50,000 $50,000

$500,000 $500,000

$300,000 $300,000

$250,000 $250,000

Cohort 8177,167

$6,002.2m31

$18,012

Cohort 640,125

$4,573.0m45

$95,636

44 Cohort 7$7,900 83,916

$1,123.3m

Cohort 567,158

$1,882.6m53

$16,729

Cohort 414,710

$2,209.6m53

$140,682

Cohort 12,956

$1,574.3m61

$453,572Cohort 33,304

$1,349.8m54

$345,960

Cohort 251,169

$2,580.4m62

$19,522

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 37

ALM Process and Methodology

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 38

Re-defining risk

• The target lifetime cash flow creates a liability for the member (cohort)

• Aim to achieve the amount required to provide the income objective

• Risk: Historically variance of annual returns

Now variance around objective (income)

• We will measure that as a probability and expected size of “shortfall”

• Focus on downside measures because members are more concerned with

having less than overshooting target.

• We can estimate this regularly and tell members where they stand.

• This is similar to the concept of managing the “surplus” in DB fund.

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 39

Investment Structure (ALM tenets)

Strategies will be constructed from a mix of:

1. A liability hedging (risk - free) asset combining two elements:

• An interest rate hedge (duration equivalent to term to retirement)

• An inflation hedge

2. Risky assets pool producing a solid risk premium (common to all cohorts)

The % mix between the two will designate the cohort strategy risk level

This is standard asset/liability management methodology

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 40

Implementation Structure

• Hedging asset pool

represents risk free

asset for a cohort

• If future contributions

accrued at risk free rate

are sufficient to meet

the objective, we could

invest 100% in the risk

free asset as a baseline

strategy

Cohort 1

Cohort 2

Cohort 3

Cohort 4

Inflation

Hedge

Int Rate

Hedge

Inflation

Hedge

Int Rate

Hedge

Inflation

Hedge

Int Rate

Hedge

Inflation

Hedge

Int Rate

Hedge

Growth Assets

Equities, Real assets,

Bonds, Alternatives

Risk - free assets

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 41

ALM Process

• Set an investment objective

• Identify a cohort’s assets and liabilities (on average)

• Stochastic projection of retirement outcomes (income and balance)

• Calculate base case outcome using “risk-free” rate

• Project various growth and risk hedge ratios

• Scenario, stress and sensitivity testing

• Consider asset only metrics (e.g. probability of negative return)

• Review regularly and manage over full lifecycle of the cohort

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 42

Key factor: estimate social security benefits

• Allowing for estimate means tested Age Pension entitlements

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

Age Pension Income

Financial assets ('000s)

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 43

ALM Decision Framework

Consider alternative strategies using different risk measures and metrics:

• Minimum expected total retirement income (97.5% confidence)

• Downside vs. target in unfavourable scenarios (stress testing)

• Relative to expected downside, the additional expected median benefit

• Corporate risk measures

• Behavioural finance and member expectation considerations

• Only introduce investment risk to the extent that it adds value

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 44

Unfavourable scenarios (stress testing)

• Initial modeling contained stress tests for 5 year short term scenarios:

o Japan style scenario extending for 5 years

o Major risky asset shock (-12% followed by 0% for 4 years)

o Severe unexpected inflation (drawn from Bridgewater Risk Tool)

• Extended modeling requires stress tests for longer periods (10, 20, 35 years)

• Worst equity returns are used as proxy for the growth asset outcomes

• Worst bond returns are used as a proxy for the risk-free asset pool

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 45

Actual sequence of historic returns used for stress testing

Duration Equities Bonds

35 years Japan: 1990’s and GFC US: 1994 Bonds shock

20 years Japan: 1990’s and GFC US: Inflation shocks followed by

Volker’s disinflation

10 years US: GFC US: Inflation shocks followed by

Volker’s disinflation

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 46

Sample Model Outputs

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 47

Sustain 2: Older, high balance members

$47,125 $47,256 $47,379 $47,508 $47,634$47,748

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

$70,000

$75,000

$80,000

H100 H80 H60 H40 H20 H0

Average Annual Income In Retirement (Primary)

Plus/Minus One Standard Deviation

Median (Base Case)

2.5th & 97.5th Percentiles (Base Case)

US: GFC

Japan: 1990s & GFC

US: 1994 Bond Shock

US: Inflation shocks followed by Volker's disinflation

$415,316 $418,500 $421,492 $424,627 $427,695$430,480

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

H100 H80 H60 H40 H20 H0

Balance at Retirement(Secondary)

Plus/Minus One Standard Deviation

Median (Base Case)

2.5th & 97.5th Percentiles (Base Case)

US: GFC

Japan: 1990s & GFC

US: 1994 Bond Shock

US: Inflation shocks followed by Volker's disinflation

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

H100 H80 H60 H40 H20 H0

Average Annual Income in

Retirement (Median Outcome)

Centrelink Self Spend

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89

Annual Income in

Retirement (Median Outcome)

Centrelink Self Spend Average

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 48

Outlook: Younger members

$59,710$62,547

$65,543$68,788

$72,122$75,907

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

H100 H80 H60 H40 H20 H0

Average Annual Income In Retirement (Primary)

Plus/Minus One Standard Deviation

Median (Base Case)

2.5th & 97.5th Percentiles (Base Case)

US: GFC

Japan: 1990s & GFC

US: 1994 Bond Shock

US: Inflation shocks followed by Volker's disinflation

$502,249

$574,255

$651,474

$736,009

$823,575

$923,578

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

H100 H80 H60 H40 H20 H0

Balance at Retirement(Secondary)

Plus/Minus One Standard Deviation

Median (Base Case)

2.5th & 97.5th Percentiles (Base Case)

US: GFC

Japan: 1990s & GFC

US: 1994 Bond Shock

US: Inflation shocks followed by Volker's disinflation

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

H100 H80 H60 H40 H20 H0

Average Annual Income in

Retirement (Median Outcome)

Centrelink Self Spend

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91

Annual Income in

Retirement (Median Outcome)

Centrelink Self Spend Average

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 49

Summary of strategies

Account B

ala

nce

H80

H40 $300,000

$250,000

H20

H30 H60

H0

Age

$100,000

$50,000 H20

H0

40 50 58

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 50

Stylised illustration

GAP

20yr Hedge

10yr Hedge

2yr Hedge

Age

Cohort 5

Cohort 7

40 50 58

Acco

un

t B

ala

nce

Cohort 1

Cohort 3

Cohort 6

Cohort 4

Cohort 2

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 51

General strategy considerations

Investment risk will reduce as age increases:

• Members have shorter horizons to smooth cycles in investment markets

• Asset values increase so effective financial risk increases

• Sequence of returns risk is very high at and around retirement

Investment risk will reduce as account balance increases:

• The impact of investment risk on final retirement incomes is amplified

• Age Pension impacts on retirement income diminish - retirement incomes are more volatile as account balances increase

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 52

But this is not a glidepath!

We manage risks dynamically as they emerge

The system is still maturing

Demographics and the environment change continuously

We monitor and adapt objectives and strategies continuously

Page 27: Pensions Conference 2015 - Actuaries

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 53

An Overview of QSuper Lifetime

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 54

QSuper Lifetime product philosophy

• Desire to move from delivering uncertain lump sum accumulation benefits to more certain targeted retirement income with mass personalisation

• Move to a personalised tailored structure to better meet individual needs

• QSuper's previous default option, Balanced, was a one-size-fits all approach

• Lifetime uses an Asset Liability Model to match investment strategies to member liabilities (targeted income streams in retirement)

• Attempt to balance certainty of outcomes against adequacy of outcomes

• Lifecycle investment strategies can take into account the member’s age, balance, Age Pension entitlements and current economic conditions

Page 28: Pensions Conference 2015 - Actuaries

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© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 55

Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) details

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 56

QSuper Lifetime statistics

• Started 16 December 2013 with 439,761 members and $22.4 billion

• Currently (30 April 2015) has 449,844 members and $27.4 billion

• Less than 3% of members have switched to another investment option

• 66% of QSuper accumulation assets are held in Lifetime

• 96% of Lifetime members have their total balance in Lifetime

• Based on APRA statistics, Lifetime is the 4th largest MySuper product

• Awarded an Asian Investor award for Institutional Excellence in Australia/New Zealand and a 5 Heron Quality Star rating for 2015

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Members and assets in QSuper Lifetime

Focus 3 Sustain 2

$2.0 billion $1.3 billion

Aspire 2 4,800 members 2,700 members

$6.6 billion

Outlook 47,000 members Focus 2

Balance $8.2 billion $3.1 billion

179,000 members 18,000 members Sustain 1

$2.9 billion

Focus 1 54,000 members

Aspire 1 $2.0 billion

$1.3 billion 64,000 members

80,000 members

Under 40 40 - 49 50 - 58 58+

Figures at 30 April 2015AGE

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 58

Considering assets and liabilities

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Retirement assets

What assets do members have to fund their retirement income?

• The Age Pension

• Current superannuation account balance

• Investment returns on the current account balance

• Future contributions

• Investment returns on future contributions

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 60

Retirement liabilities

How much would it cost to provide an adequate retirement income?

• Starting with ASFA Comfortable income level at retirement

• Regular withdrawals from an account based pension

• Invested in long term balanced portfolio

• Estimate retirement period and life expectancy of 25 years

The value of the “GOAL” is about $600,000 in today’s dollars

This is similar to how an ALM process values its “LIABILITIES”

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A young QSuper member

From a section of the Outlook cohort in QSuper Lifetime:

• Average age : 29.8

• Median current account balance : $17,134

• Median salary : $34,249

• Contribution rate : 9.5% (SG rate)

• Number of members : 20,309

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 62

DC Funding Level

125% Funding level

Age Pension 61%

Real Returns on FC 16%

Future Contributions 14%

Real Returns on CB 7%

Current Balance 2%

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Retirement assets are very different for different member groups

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 64

Development of asset components for young members

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Risks that impact on retirement outcomes are different

Assets Value of Goal/Liability Both

Investment returns Consumption levels Inflation

Contribution rates Life expectancy Long term real rates

Interest rates Retirement age

Policy changes

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 66

Performance monitoring and attribution

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Performance monitoring

Tier 1: Cohort evaluation against adequacy goal (medians)

• Actual vs. expected experience

• Change in future expectations

Tier 2: Growth asset pool and cohorts on an asset-only basis

• Traditional CPI+, volatility, drawdown, fees benchmarks

Tier 3: Risk-free asset pool against hedging objectives

• Not fully funded – still in development

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 68

Attribution analysis of funding level

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Conclusion

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 70

Potential changes to the current strategy

QSuper Lifetime is the first step in an ongoing process to improve the retirement

outcomes for default members

• Continuous improvement of process and methodology

• Increasing sophistication of modelling

• Dynamic management of strategies and objectives

• Review cohort structure – more granular grouping

• Use other factors like gender and contribution rate

• Members in the post-retirement phase is a key focus

• Understanding the risks and how these impact differently in cohorts

• Unitising asset pool to create scalability

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Conclusion

• Material change to the way we manage default accumulation monies

• Initially based on two factors: age and account balance

• No perfect solution but we start here and improve over time

• Remain flexible (e.g. to incorporate regulatory changes)

• Limited number of initial cohorts allows us to test decision making process

and make administrative adjustments

• ALM methodology has been used in DB fund since 2006

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 72

Questions and discussion

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ALM Investment Principles

1. ALM represents the process of managing a group of members’ assets to

meet our best estimate of the members’ liabilities.

2. Invest “to” not “through” retirement.

3. Define risk as not achieving the retirement income objective.

4. Analyse the level of risk appropriate to the investments of each cohort by

starting with a risk-free baseline. Add investment risk only to the extent

warranted.

5. Construct cohort strategies by combining a unique risk-free asset with a

common pool of risky assets.

© QSuper Board of Trustees 2015 Page 74

ALM Investment Principles

6. Respond dynamically to changing investment environment and cohort

characteristics.

7. Default members have asymmetric risk preferences.

8. Assume members have Centrelink entitlements, under current policies, into

the foreseeable future.

9. Applying ALM principles to Accumulation default members is innovative.

We anticipate an extended period of continuous improvement.

10. Cohort boundaries, investment objectives, investment strategies are set at a

group level.