pecan shellers associationilovepecans.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/trends... · q2 2009 q2 2011...

Pecan Shellers Association Presentation

Presented by:

Industry Update

Consumer Trends

Menu Trends

Price Trends

Opportunities For Nuts

Conclusion

2

Session Objectives

Industry Update

3

Disposable Personal Income– Low but Remains Positive

4

% Real Change vs. Prior Year June 2013

0.6%

-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

Jun

'07

Oct

Feb

Jun

'08

Oct

Feb

Jun

'09

Oct

Feb

Jun

'10

Oct

Feb

Jun

'11

Oct

Feb

Jun

'12

Oct

Feb

Jun

'13

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jul '

07

No

v

Mar

Jul '

08

No

v

Mar

Jul '

09

No

v

Mar

Jul '

10

No

v

Mar

Jul '

11

No

v

Mar

Jul '

12

No

v

Mar

Jul '

13

5

Consumer Confidence Still Trending Lower

Ind

ex

Jul 2007 111.9

Feb 2009 25.3

Base: 1966 = 100 Source: Conference Board

Low confidence resulting in less spending

Jul 2013 80.3

Unemployment Rates* Still Well Above Pre-recession Levels

6

Unemployment and Underemployment

Unemployment

4.7%

7.4% 8.3%

14.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Jul '

07

No

v

Mar

Jul '

08

No

v

Mar

Jul '

09

No

v

Mar

Jul '

10

No

v

Mar

Jul '

11

No

v

Mar

Jul '

12

No

v

Mar

Jul '

13

*Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

July 2013 July 2007

Same-Store Sales Growth Slow but Positive

7

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Q2'09 Q2'10 Q2'11 Q2'12 Q2'13

LSR 2.1%

CDR 1.7%

% Change vs. Previous Year

2Q 2013

Source: Public Company Reports, Technomic

Fast Casual Is Still the Bright Spot in the Restaurant Industry

13.2%

4.6%

4.1%

3.6%

0.0%

7.3%

1.7%

3.7%

0.7%

-1.3%

Fast Casual

Quick Service

Polished Casual

Casual Dining

Family Style

1 Year Growth - '12 5 Year CAGR - '07 - '12

8 Growth rates nominal. Source: Technomic Top 500 Reports

Foo

d Q

ual

ity/

Cra

veab

ility

Price

Polished

Fast Casual

Traditional CDR

Fast Casual in an Attractive Position

<$8

QSR

$8-$12

Polished CDR

$8-13

MSR

$20-50

$12-20

9

Consumer Trends

10

Nuts By Definition

“A nut is a fruit composed of a hard shell and a seed, where the hard-shelled fruit does not open to release the seed” Wikipedia

“Nuts have it all! Rich in energy, protein, packed with antioxidants, vitamins, minerals and much discussed omega-3 fatty acids. Crunchy yet buttery, wonderfully delicious nuts are wonderful gifts to humankind by Mother Nature” Umesh Rudrappa, www.nutrition-and-you.com

11

62

60

44

38

37

Croutons

Eggs

Almonds

Cashews

Avocado

Two of Top Five Salad Toppings are Nuts

Which other salad toppings would you consider ordering

Base: 1,500 Consumers currently enrolled in College or University Source: 2012 Technomic Salad Consumer Trend Report

12

41%

39%

33%

32%

28%

Real or Natural

Made FromScratch

Low in Sugar

Low in Calories

No ArtificialSweeteners

Nuts Are Well-Positioned For Health Halo Perception

Which of the following make a dessert better-for-you?

Base: 1,500 Consumers currently enrolled in College or University Source: 2013 Technomic Dessert Consumer Trend Report

13

33%

24%

23%

19%

14%

13%

Shellfish

Dairy/Milk

Peanut

Wheat/Glutens

Tree Nut

Soy

Some Allergens Still Affect Many Consumers

What are You Allergic To?

Base: 1,500 Consumers currently enrolled in College or University Source: 2013 Technomic College & University Consumer Trend Report

14

Base: 1,500 consumers aged 18+

% Overall

18%

28%

42%

20%

38%

15%

30%

17%

25%

19%

14%

20%

I am snacking more frequently

I am snacking less frequently

18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55+

Overall, consumers indicate a net gain in snack consumption compared to two years ago

In which ways has your snacking behavior changed in the last two years?

Base: 1,500 Consumers Source: 2012 Technomic Snacking Consumer Trend Report

Snack consumption is relatively high throughout the day, and it peaks in the midafternoon

What time of day do you typically have a snack?

Base: 1,501 (2010) and 1,500 (2012) consumers aged 18+

30%

68%

36%

38%

39%

73%

39%

40%

Midmorning – after breakfast but before lunch

Midafternoon – after lunch but before dinner

Midevening – shortly after dinner

Late night – before bedtime

2010 2012



*19% of consumers report that their snacking behavior has not changed at all in the past two years

Source: 2012 Technomic Snacking Consumer Trend Report

33%

9%

13%

12%

8%

7%

46%

17%

12%

12%

10%

5%

I am snacking on healthier items

I feel more guilty about snacking

I eat more salty snacks

I eat more sweet snacks

I feel less guilty about snacking

I am snacking on less healthy items

Male Female

% Overall

40%

13%

9%

13%

12%

6%

4 in 10 consumers indicate they’re gravitating toward more healthful snacks

In which ways has your snacking behavior changed in the last two years?


Majority of consumers say $3 is the highest price they are willing to pay for a snack

How much are you willing to pay for a snack that you would not consider to be a full meal?

28%

35%

24%

8%

6%

36%

30%

19%

8%

7%

Less than $2

$2–$2.99

$3–$3.99

$4–$4.99

$5 or more

18–34 35+

% Overall

32%

32%

22%

8%

6%


Menu Trends

19

Nuts on the Menu

Butters Pesto’s Toppings

Crusts Savory Snacks Sweet Treats 20

Pecan Menu Sampler

Spring Mix, Pickled Beets And Onions, Candied Pecans And House Made Vinaigrette

Spiced Pecan Green Beans—Gluten Free

Pecan-Crusted Red Snapper— Topped With Jumbo Lump Crabmeat, Served With Broccolini

Pastel De Tres Leches—Three Milk Soaked Pecan Cake,Coconut-caramel Mousse. 21

Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

Walnut Menu Sampler

Wild Mushroom Flatbread—spinach and walnut pesto, roasted wild mushrooms, parmesan

Brie, Raisin, and Noix—Brie Cheese, Raisins and Walnut Butter spread on soft whole grain bread.

Apple Walnut Slaw

Candied Walnut Truffle

22 Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

Almond Menu Sampler

Quinoa with Carrots and Almonds

Sweet Almond Pretzel Coated with Toasted Sweet Almond Crunchiness

Tarragon Almond Chicken Salad Sandwich

Almond Torte

23 Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

201

215

37

220

221

47

267

199

63

Entrée

Dessert

Appetizer

Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013

Pecan Mentions Up Nearly 15% Since 2009

Pecans on the Menu Pecan Menu Mentions By mealpart

24 Base: 688 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging Chains and Top Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

486

228

523

235

558

246

Total Menu Mentions Total Operators Offering

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013

111

46

27

27

17

112

42

35

28

18

115

45

32

28

26

Casual Dining

Fine Dining

Quick Service

Midscale

Fast Casual

85

60

50

33

85

67

48

35

92

67

51

36

Top 250 Chains

Next 250 Chains

TopIndependents

EmergingChains

Fast Casuals and Large Chains Among the Operators Adding Pecans to the Menu

Base: 688 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging Chains and Top Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

25

Operators Menuing Pecans By segment

Operators Menuing Pecans By operator size

62

25

24

21

20

12

12

11

10

9

9

6

5

4

4

Varied Menu

Steak

Family Style

Seafood

Fine Dining

BBQ

Frozen Dessert

Bakery/Cafe

Italian

Family Casual

Mexican

Other Sandwich

Pizza

Asian/Noodle

Burger

Varied Menu, Steak and Family-Style Restaurants Most Common Among Operators Offering Pecans

Operators Menuing Pecans By restaurant type (2013)


26

Appetizer Salads With Pecans Doubled Since 2009

Casual Dining 57%

Fast Casual

14%

Midscale 12%

Fine Dining 12% Quick

Service 5%

27

123

36

131

54

157

Appetizer Entrée

Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013


27

Menu Incidence of Salads with Pecans By mealpart

Incidence of 2013 Salads with Pecans By segment

11.6%

11.4%

10.8%

14.7%

37.5%

48.1%

52.9%

49.4%

30.8%

33.1%

25.7%

24.6%

20.1%

7.4%

10.6%

11.2%

Peanut/Peanut Butter

Pecan

Almond

Walnut

Appetizers Entrées Desserts All Other

Mealpart Distribution of Leading Nut Types 2013 Total Incidence

1,132

993

942

898

Base: 1,288 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging and Regional Chains and Top and Regional Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

28

Pecans Used in Desserts More Often Than Most Other Nut Varieties

564

486

411

387

604

523

445

407

635

558

446

430

Peanuts & Peanut Butter

Pecan

Almond

Walnut

Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013

2009-2013 Growth

+12.6%

+14.8%

+8.5%

+11.1%

Pecans Grow Second-Fastest Among Various Nuts Over the Past Five Years


29

Menu Incidence of Various Nuts

131

92

110

107

89

128

98

104

97

84

109

105

102

99

82

Pine Nut

Hazelnut

Macadamia

Cashew

Pistachio

Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013

2009-2013 Growth

-16.8%

+14.1%

-7.8%

-7.5%

-7.9%

Other Nuts Have Declined Over the Past Five Years

Menu Incidence of Various Nuts

30 Base: 688 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging Chains and Top Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

Price Trends

31

Nuts Generally Command Strong Price Premiums

$10.15

$9.41

$9.61

$7.75

Appetizers—Overall

Appetizer—Salad

Average Menu Price, with Nuts Average Menu Price, Overall

32

Price Premiums on Menus for Items With Nuts By dish type

Premium

+5.6%

+21.4%



$6.75

$6.27

$6.14

$5.87

$5.73

$5.12

Desserts—Overall

Dessert—Baked Goods

Dessert—Ice Cream


Premium

+15.0%

+9.4%

+19.9%


33



$14.11

$7.62

$14.87

$23.58

$10.49

$8.39

$12.90

$6.58

$13.24

$21.43

$9.93

$7.69

Entrées - Overall

Entrée - Breakfast Starch

Entrée - Chicken Dish

Entrée - Fish Dish

Entrée - Salad Main Dish

Entrée - Sandwich


34

Premium

+9.4%

+15.8%

+12.3%

+10.0%

+5.6%

+9.1%



Opportunities For Nuts

35

Opportunities—Adding Quality With Toppings

Consumer interest in adding texture, flavor and nutritional benefits to salads opens the door for innovative nut toppings Key Insights


36

Opportunities—Crusted Protein Preparation

Pecan crusted preparation provides a crunchy texture and nutty flavor to moist fish mains Key Insights


37

Opportunities—Nut Infused Sauces

Pecans and other nuts stand in for traditional pine nuts in more contemporary pesto-based dishes Key Insights


38

Opportunities—Spicy Flavor Profiles

As American consumer flavor profiles evolve to include greater influence of spicy flavors and heat, spiced nuts provide a subtle spicy enhancement Key Insights


39

Opportunities—Indulgent Candied Nuts

Combining the delicious flavor of buttery nuts with sugary sweetness provides luxury through indulgence and decadence Key Insights


40

Conclusions

41

Conclusion

42

Restaurant Industry still faces challenges ahead with some segments positioned better than others

Consumers snacking occasions provide opportunities for product development , packaging and menu integration

Operators have increased their incidence of nuts on the menu and consumers are getting more variety and familiarity across meal parts

Opportunities at polished casual and fast casual restaurants continue to grow

43

More Information?

Darren Tristano Executive Vice President

312-506-3850 [email protected]

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